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P4 will never happen
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #1
P4 will never happen
For years we’ve talked about a P4 but I’ve concluded that there will never be a P4.

For there to be a P4, the others would have to gobble up the majority of one of the weaker leagues. If this was going to happen, the prime time for that to happen was after the Texas/Oklahoma SEC announcement yet the others passed on the remaining 8.

Kansas is probably the only Big 12 school left that holds any interest to the Big 10 or SEC. While the PAC 12 has talked about a CTZ foothold the institutional and cultural differences proved to be a bridge too far and I’m guessing the money isn’t there.

The ACC Is locked into that meddlesome GOR so they aren’t a good candidate to be dissolved. While it’s feasible that it’s members could be dispersed across the Big 10, SEC, and Big 12 the power structure would be more akin to a Power 2 (SEC, Big 10) and then 2 leagues (PAC 12 and Big 12) who are a significant step down.

Dissolving the Pac 12 has geography working against us. Even if there was a scenario where the Big 10 cherry picked the PAC 12 and what was left merged into the Big 12 this would undoubtedly spur the SEC to raid the ACC in response and again, the end result is a Power 2 and then 2 lesser leagues.

The power dynamics just don’t lend themselves to a P4.
06-14-2022 04:50 PM
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shizzle787 Offline
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Post: #2
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-14-2022 04:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  For years we’ve talked about a P4 but I’ve concluded that there will never be a P4.

For there to be a P4, the others would have to gobble up the majority of one of the weaker leagues. If this was going to happen, the prime time for that to happen was after the Texas/Oklahoma SEC announcement yet the others passed on the remaining 8.

Kansas is probably the only Big 12 school left that holds any interest to the Big 10 or SEC. While the PAC 12 has talked about a CTZ foothold the institutional and cultural differences proved to be a bridge too far and I’m guessing the money isn’t there.

The ACC Is locked into that meddlesome GOR so they aren’t a good candidate to be dissolved. While it’s feasible that it’s members could be dispersed across the Big 10, SEC, and Big 12 the power structure would be more akin to a Power 2 (SEC, Big 10) and then 2 leagues (PAC 12 and Big 12) who are a significant step down.

Dissolving the Pac 12 has geography working against us. Even if there was a scenario where the Big 10 cherry picked the PAC 12 and what was left merged into the Big 12 this would undoubtedly spur the SEC to raid the ACC in response and again, the end result is a Power 2 and then 2 lesser leagues.

The power dynamics just don’t lend themselves to a P4.
The Big 12 is the next league to disappear (ala the Big East). It doesn’t have a top 30 brand.
06-14-2022 04:53 PM
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Glenn360 Offline
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Post: #3
RE: P4 will never happen
Way too many schools and the conferences are getting bigger

As of 2023 they're going to be to 69 "Power 5 schools".
(This post was last modified: 06-14-2022 05:08 PM by Glenn360.)
06-14-2022 05:06 PM
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THUNDERStruck73 Offline
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Post: #4
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-14-2022 04:53 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  
(06-14-2022 04:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  For years we’ve talked about a P4 but I’ve concluded that there will never be a P4.

For there to be a P4, the others would have to gobble up the majority of one of the weaker leagues. If this was going to happen, the prime time for that to happen was after the Texas/Oklahoma SEC announcement yet the others passed on the remaining 8.

Kansas is probably the only Big 12 school left that holds any interest to the Big 10 or SEC. While the PAC 12 has talked about a CTZ foothold the institutional and cultural differences proved to be a bridge too far and I’m guessing the money isn’t there.

The ACC Is locked into that meddlesome GOR so they aren’t a good candidate to be dissolved. While it’s feasible that it’s members could be dispersed across the Big 10, SEC, and Big 12 the power structure would be more akin to a Power 2 (SEC, Big 10) and then 2 leagues (PAC 12 and Big 12) who are a significant step down.

Dissolving the Pac 12 has geography working against us. Even if there was a scenario where the Big 10 cherry picked the PAC 12 and what was left merged into the Big 12 this would undoubtedly spur the SEC to raid the ACC in response and again, the end result is a Power 2 and then 2 lesser leagues.

The power dynamics just don’t lend themselves to a P4.
The Big 12 is the next league to disappear (ala the Big East). It doesn’t have a top 30 brand.

A s much as it hurts me to say this, WVU is probably a top 30 brand as well as Kansas (basketball)
06-14-2022 06:37 PM
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Utgrizfan Offline
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Post: #5
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-14-2022 04:53 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  
(06-14-2022 04:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  For years we’ve talked about a P4 but I’ve concluded that there will never be a P4.

For there to be a P4, the others would have to gobble up the majority of one of the weaker leagues. If this was going to happen, the prime time for that to happen was after the Texas/Oklahoma SEC announcement yet the others passed on the remaining 8.

Kansas is probably the only Big 12 school left that holds any interest to the Big 10 or SEC. While the PAC 12 has talked about a CTZ foothold the institutional and cultural differences proved to be a bridge too far and I’m guessing the money isn’t there.

The ACC Is locked into that meddlesome GOR so they aren’t a good candidate to be dissolved. While it’s feasible that it’s members could be dispersed across the Big 10, SEC, and Big 12 the power structure would be more akin to a Power 2 (SEC, Big 10) and then 2 leagues (PAC 12 and Big 12) who are a significant step down.

Dissolving the Pac 12 has geography working against us. Even if there was a scenario where the Big 10 cherry picked the PAC 12 and what was left merged into the Big 12 this would undoubtedly spur the SEC to raid the ACC in response and again, the end result is a Power 2 and then 2 lesser leagues.

The power dynamics just don’t lend themselves to a P4.
The Big 12 is the next league to disappear (ala the Big East). It doesn’t have a top 30 brand.

I'd think BYU is considered a "Big" brand due to the Mormon faith, they always travel well and have somewhat national recognition
06-14-2022 06:39 PM
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Milwaukee Offline
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Post: #6
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-14-2022 04:53 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  
(06-14-2022 04:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  For years we’ve talked about a P4 but I’ve concluded that there will never be a P4.

For there to be a P4, the others would have to gobble up the majority of one of the weaker leagues. If this was going to happen, the prime time for that to happen was after the Texas/Oklahoma SEC announcement yet the others passed on the remaining 8.

Kansas is probably the only Big 12 school left that holds any interest to the Big 10 or SEC. While the PAC 12 has talked about a CTZ foothold the institutional and cultural differences proved to be a bridge too far and I’m guessing the money isn’t there.

The ACC Is locked into that meddlesome GOR so they aren’t a good candidate to be dissolved. While it’s feasible that it’s members could be dispersed across the Big 10, SEC, and Big 12 the power structure would be more akin to a Power 2 (SEC, Big 10) and then 2 leagues (PAC 12 and Big 12) who are a significant step down.

Dissolving the Pac 12 has geography working against us. Even if there was a scenario where the Big 10 cherry picked the PAC 12 and what was left merged into the Big 12 this would undoubtedly spur the SEC to raid the ACC in response and again, the end result is a Power 2 and then 2 lesser leagues.

The power dynamics just don’t lend themselves to a P4.
The Big 12 is the next league to disappear (ala the Big East). It doesn’t have a top 30 brand.

Disagree.

1. Once UC, UH, UCF, and BYU join the Big 12, that conference's viewership is going to start expanding and expanding. The expansion will continue for a decade.

2. The Big 12 may be the #1 basketball conference.

3. The Big 12 will add more schools before 2030.

4. There is little to gain by expanding beyond 16 schools per conference.
06-14-2022 07:10 PM
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JHS55 Offline
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Post: #7
RE: P4 will never happen
I agree, the new b-12 will recover a lot more than people think but will be shunned by the Disney controlled selection committee nontheless
06-14-2022 07:57 PM
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THUNDERStruck73 Offline
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Post: #8
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-14-2022 07:57 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  I agree, the new b-12 will recover a lot more than people think but will be shunned by the Disney controlled selection committee nontheless

I can't imagine Disney pissing in its pool. They won't shun UCF.
06-14-2022 08:18 PM
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Yosef181 Offline
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Post: #9
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-14-2022 04:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  For years we’ve talked about a P4 but I’ve concluded that there will never be a P4.

For there to be a P4, the others would have to gobble up the majority of one of the weaker leagues. If this was going to happen, the prime time for that to happen was after the Texas/Oklahoma SEC announcement yet the others passed on the remaining 8.

Kansas is probably the only Big 12 school left that holds any interest to the Big 10 or SEC. While the PAC 12 has talked about a CTZ foothold the institutional and cultural differences proved to be a bridge too far and I’m guessing the money isn’t there.

The ACC Is locked into that meddlesome GOR so they aren’t a good candidate to be dissolved. While it’s feasible that it’s members could be dispersed across the Big 10, SEC, and Big 12 the power structure would be more akin to a Power 2 (SEC, Big 10) and then 2 leagues (PAC 12 and Big 12) who are a significant step down.

Dissolving the Pac 12 has geography working against us. Even if there was a scenario where the Big 10 cherry picked the PAC 12 and what was left merged into the Big 12 this would undoubtedly spur the SEC to raid the ACC in response and again, the end result is a Power 2 and then 2 lesser leagues.

The power dynamics just don’t lend themselves to a P4.

That's one way to get to the P4. Another, more likely scenario to less "P"s is what happened to the Big East/AAC: an increasing gap in money and performance when compared to the top conferences.

If the projections are correct, we'll have a P2 in 10 years, not a P4 or P5.
(This post was last modified: 06-14-2022 08:26 PM by Yosef181.)
06-14-2022 08:23 PM
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ColKurtz Offline
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Post: #10
RE: P4 will never happen
If they get an equal share of new playoff distributions as is the case now, there will still be a P5. If not, there will be a P4. It’s really no more complicated than that.

I guess there could also be a situation where the new B12 gets a distribution less than the P4, but more than the G5. That would be a P4.5 or something. If the P4 and the G5 are in agreement on a new model that effectively drops the B12 out of the P5 in some fashion, not sure how the voting process works as to whether the B12 could veto it.
06-14-2022 08:38 PM
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colohank Offline
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Post: #11
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-14-2022 04:53 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  
(06-14-2022 04:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  For years we’ve talked about a P4 but I’ve concluded that there will never be a P4.

For there to be a P4, the others would have to gobble up the majority of one of the weaker leagues. If this was going to happen, the prime time for that to happen was after the Texas/Oklahoma SEC announcement yet the others passed on the remaining 8.

Kansas is probably the only Big 12 school left that holds any interest to the Big 10 or SEC. While the PAC 12 has talked about a CTZ foothold the institutional and cultural differences proved to be a bridge too far and I’m guessing the money isn’t there.

The ACC Is locked into that meddlesome GOR so they aren’t a good candidate to be dissolved. While it’s feasible that it’s members could be dispersed across the Big 10, SEC, and Big 12 the power structure would be more akin to a Power 2 (SEC, Big 10) and then 2 leagues (PAC 12 and Big 12) who are a significant step down.

Dissolving the Pac 12 has geography working against us. Even if there was a scenario where the Big 10 cherry picked the PAC 12 and what was left merged into the Big 12 this would undoubtedly spur the SEC to raid the ACC in response and again, the end result is a Power 2 and then 2 lesser leagues.

The power dynamics just don’t lend themselves to a P4.
The Big 12 is the next league to disappear (ala the Big East). It doesn’t have a top 30 brand.

There's a contradiction your assertion. If, as you contend, the B12 doesn't have a top-30 brand, then there'd be no incentive for a so-called P2 conference to poach any of its members, and if none of its members are poached and the conference remains intact, then how exactly, would the B12 disappear? That said, will it ever make as much money as the B1G and the SEC? No. Does that matter? No.

Cincy, in particular, has a long history of doing more with less, and whatever the future holds for my Alma Mater is fine with me. Cincy prospered in the old Big East and in the AAC, and it'll continue to prosper in the B12 and beyond, if there is a beyond. As the old saying goes, "Bloom wherever you're planted."

Here's hoping UConn enjoys its basketball rivalries in the new Big East, the body-bag games where it gets paid a few bucks to lose, and its regional football games with the flagship institutions in neighboring states -- UMass and the Universities of New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine. I don't think UConn needs to worry about being poached, either.
06-14-2022 09:28 PM
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THUNDERStruck73 Offline
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Post: #12
RE: P4 will never happen
I think Cincy, UCF, and Houston will absolutely grow their brands. I think there will be some football growing pains... Not so much in hoops. UCF will have its work cut out in hoops moreso than the other two. But there is a reason you all got the promotion. Kudos. You did what you needed to do.
06-14-2022 09:35 PM
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DawgNBama Offline
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Post: #13
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-14-2022 04:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  For years we’ve talked about a P4 but I’ve concluded that there will never be a P4.

For there to be a P4, the others would have to gobble up the majority of one of the weaker leagues. If this was going to happen, the prime time for that to happen was after the Texas/Oklahoma SEC announcement yet the others passed on the remaining 8.

Kansas is probably the only Big 12 school left that holds any interest to the Big 10 or SEC. While the PAC 12 has talked about a CTZ foothold the institutional and cultural differences proved to be a bridge too far and I’m guessing the money isn’t there.

The ACC Is locked into that meddlesome GOR so they aren’t a good candidate to be dissolved. While it’s feasible that it’s members could be dispersed across the Big 10, SEC, and Big 12 the power structure would be more akin to a Power 2 (SEC, Big 10) and then 2 leagues (PAC 12 and Big 12) who are a significant step down.

Dissolving the Pac 12 has geography working against us. Even if there was a scenario where the Big 10 cherry picked the PAC 12 and what was left merged into the Big 12 this would undoubtedly spur the SEC to raid the ACC in response and again, the end result is a Power 2 and then 2 lesser leagues.

The power dynamics just don’t lend themselves to a P4.

Never say never. One tactic that Nazi Germany used during WW2 that isn't talked a lot about IMO is the sitzkrieg, or the sit-down war. The sitzkrieg is very different from the blitzkrieg (which uses lightning fast movement) in that a sitzkrieg can last much longer than any blitzkrieg or a series of blitzkriegs, and the enemy is fooled into thinking that nothing will happen, while a lot of events are happening behind the scenes and are usually dismissed as unimportant to the enemy. I believe that the SEC is in the middle of a sitzkrieg right now, weighing its moves and evaluating its options.
06-14-2022 09:42 PM
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Milwaukee Offline
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Post: #14
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-14-2022 08:23 PM)Yosef181 Wrote:  
(06-14-2022 04:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  For years we’ve talked about a P4 but I’ve concluded that there will never be a P4.

For there to be a P4, the others would have to gobble up the majority of one of the weaker leagues. If this was going to happen, the prime time for that to happen was after the Texas/Oklahoma SEC announcement yet the others passed on the remaining 8.

Kansas is probably the only Big 12 school left that holds any interest to the Big 10 or SEC. While the PAC 12 has talked about a CTZ foothold the institutional and cultural differences proved to be a bridge too far and I’m guessing the money isn’t there.

The ACC Is locked into that meddlesome GOR so they aren’t a good candidate to be dissolved. While it’s feasible that it’s members could be dispersed across the Big 10, SEC, and Big 12 the power structure would be more akin to a Power 2 (SEC, Big 10) and then 2 leagues (PAC 12 and Big 12) who are a significant step down.

Dissolving the Pac 12 has geography working against us. Even if there was a scenario where the Big 10 cherry picked the PAC 12 and what was left merged into the Big 12 this would undoubtedly spur the SEC to raid the ACC in response and again, the end result is a Power 2 and then 2 lesser leagues.

The power dynamics just don’t lend themselves to a P4.

That's one way to get to the P4. Another, more likely scenario to less "P"s is what happened to the Big East/AAC: an increasing gap in money and performance when compared to the top conferences.

If the projections are correct, we'll have a P2 in 10 years, not a P4 or P5.

That's one heck of a big "IF." Beyond speculation, to my knowledge, there's no evidence whatsoever suggesting that the ACC, Big 12, or PAC 12 are at risk of dropping down to less than power conference status.
06-14-2022 09:44 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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RE: P4 will never happen
(06-14-2022 09:44 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  
(06-14-2022 08:23 PM)Yosef181 Wrote:  
(06-14-2022 04:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  For years we’ve talked about a P4 but I’ve concluded that there will never be a P4.

For there to be a P4, the others would have to gobble up the majority of one of the weaker leagues. If this was going to happen, the prime time for that to happen was after the Texas/Oklahoma SEC announcement yet the others passed on the remaining 8.

Kansas is probably the only Big 12 school left that holds any interest to the Big 10 or SEC. While the PAC 12 has talked about a CTZ foothold the institutional and cultural differences proved to be a bridge too far and I’m guessing the money isn’t there.

The ACC Is locked into that meddlesome GOR so they aren’t a good candidate to be dissolved. While it’s feasible that it’s members could be dispersed across the Big 10, SEC, and Big 12 the power structure would be more akin to a Power 2 (SEC, Big 10) and then 2 leagues (PAC 12 and Big 12) who are a significant step down.

Dissolving the Pac 12 has geography working against us. Even if there was a scenario where the Big 10 cherry picked the PAC 12 and what was left merged into the Big 12 this would undoubtedly spur the SEC to raid the ACC in response and again, the end result is a Power 2 and then 2 lesser leagues.

The power dynamics just don’t lend themselves to a P4.

That's one way to get to the P4. Another, more likely scenario to less "P"s is what happened to the Big East/AAC: an increasing gap in money and performance when compared to the top conferences.

If the projections are correct, we'll have a P2 in 10 years, not a P4 or P5.

That's one heck of a big "IF." Beyond speculation, to my knowledge, there's no evidence whatsoever suggesting that the ACC, Big 12, or PAC 12 are at risk of dropping down to less than power conference status.

Did you miss the point of the whole OP? My whole argument is that it’s unlikely for one of the ACC/Pac12/Big 12 to be swallowed up and even if one did, the result would not be 4 conferences of relatively equal strength.
06-15-2022 05:56 AM
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GreenBison Offline
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RE: P4 will never happen
(06-14-2022 08:18 PM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote:  
(06-14-2022 07:57 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  I agree, the new b-12 will recover a lot more than people think but will be shunned by the Disney controlled selection committee nontheless

I can't imagine Disney pissing in its pool. They won't shun UCF.

I doubt UCF carries that much weight with ESPN. They already have Florida, FSU and Miami.
06-15-2022 06:53 AM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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RE: P4 will never happen
(06-14-2022 04:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  For years we’ve talked about a P4 but I’ve concluded that there will never be a P4.

For there to be a P4, the others would have to gobble up the majority of one of the weaker leagues. If this was going to happen, the prime time for that to happen was after the Texas/Oklahoma SEC announcement yet the others passed on the remaining 8.

Kansas is probably the only Big 12 school left that holds any interest to the Big 10 or SEC. While the PAC 12 has talked about a CTZ foothold the institutional and cultural differences proved to be a bridge too far and I’m guessing the money isn’t there.

The ACC Is locked into that meddlesome GOR so they aren’t a good candidate to be dissolved. While it’s feasible that it’s members could be dispersed across the Big 10, SEC, and Big 12 the power structure would be more akin to a Power 2 (SEC, Big 10) and then 2 leagues (PAC 12 and Big 12) who are a significant step down.

Dissolving the Pac 12 has geography working against us. Even if there was a scenario where the Big 10 cherry picked the PAC 12 and what was left merged into the Big 12 this would undoubtedly spur the SEC to raid the ACC in response and again, the end result is a Power 2 and then 2 lesser leagues.

The power dynamics just don’t lend themselves to a P4.

Likely top-down scenario, just my guess, is that the SEC grabs a couple of ACC teams (like FSU and/or Clemson) at some point down the line. ACC starts backfilling with Big 12, more ACC potentially leave for SEC/BIG, more Big 12 to ACC, Big 12 backfills with AAC. Just my guess.
06-15-2022 07:34 AM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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RE: P4 will never happen
(06-14-2022 09:28 PM)colohank Wrote:  
(06-14-2022 04:53 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  
(06-14-2022 04:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  For years we’ve talked about a P4 but I’ve concluded that there will never be a P4.

For there to be a P4, the others would have to gobble up the majority of one of the weaker leagues. If this was going to happen, the prime time for that to happen was after the Texas/Oklahoma SEC announcement yet the others passed on the remaining 8.

Kansas is probably the only Big 12 school left that holds any interest to the Big 10 or SEC. While the PAC 12 has talked about a CTZ foothold the institutional and cultural differences proved to be a bridge too far and I’m guessing the money isn’t there.

The ACC Is locked into that meddlesome GOR so they aren’t a good candidate to be dissolved. While it’s feasible that it’s members could be dispersed across the Big 10, SEC, and Big 12 the power structure would be more akin to a Power 2 (SEC, Big 10) and then 2 leagues (PAC 12 and Big 12) who are a significant step down.

Dissolving the Pac 12 has geography working against us. Even if there was a scenario where the Big 10 cherry picked the PAC 12 and what was left merged into the Big 12 this would undoubtedly spur the SEC to raid the ACC in response and again, the end result is a Power 2 and then 2 lesser leagues.

The power dynamics just don’t lend themselves to a P4.
The Big 12 is the next league to disappear (ala the Big East). It doesn’t have a top 30 brand.

There's a contradiction your assertion. If, as you contend, the B12 doesn't have a top-30 brand, then there'd be no incentive for a so-called P2 conference to poach any of its members, and if none of its members are poached and the conference remains intact, then how exactly, would the B12 disappear? That said, will it ever make as much money as the B1G and the SEC? No. Does that matter? No.

Cincy, in particular, has a long history of doing more with less, and whatever the future holds for my Alma Mater is fine with me. Cincy prospered in the old Big East and in the AAC, and it'll continue to prosper in the B12 and beyond, if there is a beyond. As the old saying goes, "Bloom wherever you're planted."

Here's hoping UConn enjoys its basketball rivalries in the new Big East, the body-bag games where it gets paid a few bucks to lose, and its regional football games with the flagship institutions in neighboring states -- UMass and the Universities of New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine. I don't think UConn needs to worry about being poached, either.

How it happens is that conferences with a couple of top-30 members lose teams. Do you think the Big 12 would have added AAC teams if they stayed intact?
06-15-2022 07:38 AM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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RE: P4 will never happen
(06-14-2022 04:53 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  
(06-14-2022 04:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  For years we’ve talked about a P4 but I’ve concluded that there will never be a P4.

For there to be a P4, the others would have to gobble up the majority of one of the weaker leagues. If this was going to happen, the prime time for that to happen was after the Texas/Oklahoma SEC announcement yet the others passed on the remaining 8.

Kansas is probably the only Big 12 school left that holds any interest to the Big 10 or SEC. While the PAC 12 has talked about a CTZ foothold the institutional and cultural differences proved to be a bridge too far and I’m guessing the money isn’t there.

The ACC Is locked into that meddlesome GOR so they aren’t a good candidate to be dissolved. While it’s feasible that it’s members could be dispersed across the Big 10, SEC, and Big 12 the power structure would be more akin to a Power 2 (SEC, Big 10) and then 2 leagues (PAC 12 and Big 12) who are a significant step down.

Dissolving the Pac 12 has geography working against us. Even if there was a scenario where the Big 10 cherry picked the PAC 12 and what was left merged into the Big 12 this would undoubtedly spur the SEC to raid the ACC in response and again, the end result is a Power 2 and then 2 lesser leagues.

The power dynamics just don’t lend themselves to a P4.
The Big 12 is the next league to disappear (ala the Big East). It doesn’t have a top 30 brand.

I do think there's a key difference between the old Big East and current Big 12 and the OP alluded to it here: the current Big 12 really doesn't have any schools besides *maybe* Kansas (who isn't even actually good at football) that would fit as a viable expansion target for any of the other power leagues. More importantly, the reasons why they don't fit as expansion targets for those other power leagues are all for inherent core institutional reasons (which are almost impossible to change) as opposed to athletic prowess.

The old Big East, in contrast, had a LOT of individual schools that fit into the institutional goals of other leagues, which is why they were completely picked apart.

While it's not necessarily good for the *individual* members of the Big 12 that they don't really have great realignment prospects elsewhere, that's a good thing for the Big 12 conference *collectively* because this should actually still be a very good or even excellent on-the-field/court sports league that will be kept together for the foreseeable future. Once again, the reason why the other power leagues aren't poaching any current Big 12 members has absolutely nothing to do with how they're performing in football, but rather core institutional issues (such as the academic standards in the Big Ten and Pac-12) that likely aren't ever changing.

There's no reason for the Big 12 as it currently stands to fall apart as conference itself in the long-term. It's really more of a matter of whether the Big 12 itself will continue to part of a P5 or be shut out of that group altogether to leave a P4. I tend to believe that the Big 12 will stay in that P5 group (as long as there's not a more total Armageddon-type legal breakaway) because of the dynamics of controlling the CFP: the P5 plus ND simply gives that group complete control in a way that the P4 plus ND doesn't and it's easier for the Big Ten, SEC, Pac-12, ACC and ND to just negotiate solely with the Big 12 to get what they want for the CFP than it is to try to work with any of the other G5 conferences. The other power conferences shutting out the Big 12 would be a classic "pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered" scenario where an attempt to grab more power could backfire by turning the Big 12 into a swing vote that would block what those power conferences want to do.
(This post was last modified: 06-15-2022 09:23 AM by Frank the Tank.)
06-15-2022 09:22 AM
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Wahoowa84 Offline
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Post: #20
RE: P4 will never happen
Before UT and OU announced that they were moving to the SEC, I thought that a P4 would be the most stable structure for high-level collegiate athletics. If there could be 4 relatively comparable conferences…in terms of revenue, branding and on-field success…, then the 50 - 70 college programs that invest the most on athletics could compete without the constant realignment upheaval. The SEC and B1G were going to be the two most valuable conferences, but their competitors (two out of ACC, B12 or PAC) would be relatively close. A stable P4 would best enable growth and prosperity for the elite college programs.

College athletics has had 50 to 70 programs that compete at the highest level for at least the past half century. These 50 - 70 programs could grow and operate profitably, while allowing any other program that heavily subsidized their athletics to also participate.

Since a balanced P4 no longer makes sense, the new questions are:

Is a more hierarchical structure (e.g., P2 + M3 + G5) stable? Or will the new top conferences continue to grow in members?

Will 50 - 70 programs still be able to effectively compete at the highest level?
06-15-2022 09:54 AM
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