RE: P4 will never happen
P4 may be possible but I think it would look more similar to something where the B1G/SEC are bigger and stronger but the PAC and ACC are still there. Here's how I'd like to see it happen:
1) The value of basketball skyrockets.
2) B1G effectively lures Duke, Georgia Tech, Kansas, Miami, North Carolina, and Virginia. Sits at 20.
3) SEC grabs Clemson, Florida St, North Carolina St, and Virginia Tech. Sits at 20.
4) PAC jumps into the CTZ with Iowa St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, and Texas Tech. Sits at 16.
5) ACC, now at 5 in football, brings in the XII leftovers (Baylor, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, TCU, and West Virginia) plus East Carolina, Memphis, SMU, South Florida, and Temple. Sits at 16.
6) Notre Dame wants to remain independent in football. BYU returns to independence.
The non-power conferences see value in consolidated. Except the MAC who sits at 12.
7) MWC brings in North Texas, Rice, Tulane, Tulsa, and Wichita St (non-football). Sits at 16.
8) SBC adds Florida Atlantic and UAB. Sits at 16.
9) Navy returns to football independence with Army, Connecticut, and Massachusetts.
10) CUSA, at 9, adds Charlotte and UTSA from AAC plus Eastern Kentucky from FCS ASUN. Sits at 12.
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I would except conferences to go divisionless but here is a potential divisional alignment.
Independent: Army (Patriot), BYU (West Coast), Connecticut (Big East), Massachusetts (Atlantic 10), Navy (Patriot), Notre Dame (Big East)
B1G
Central: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin
Coastal: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami (FL), North Carolina, Virginia
East: Maryland, Michigan, Ohio St, Penn St, Rutgers
North: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan St, Northwestern, Purdue
SEC
Atlantic: Clemson, Florida St, North Carolina St, South Carolina, Virginia Tech
Central: Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
East: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
South: Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St
PAC
Central: Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Iowa St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech, Utah
Western: California, Oregon, Oregon St, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington St
ACC
North: Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Temple, Wake Forest, West Virginia
South: Baylor, Central Florida, East Carolina, Houston, Memphis, SMU, South Florida, TCU
MWC
Mountain: Air Force, Colorado St, New Mexico, North Texas, Rice, Tulane, Tulsa, Wyoming
West: Boise St, Fresno St, Hawaii*, Nevada, San Diego St, San Jose St, UNLV, Utah St
* Football-only
^ Non-football: Wichita St
SBC
East: Appalachian St, Coastal Carolina, Florida Atlantic, Georgia Southern, Georgia St, James Madison, Marshall, Old Dominion
South: Arkansas St, South Alabama, Southern Miss, Texas St, Troy, UAB, UL Lafayette, UL Monroe
MAC
East: Akron, Bowling Green St, Buffalo, Kent St, Ohio, Miami (OH)
West: Ball St, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Western Michigan
CUSA
East: Charlotte, Eastern Kentucky, Florida International, Liberty, Middle Tennessee St, Western Kentucky
West: Jacksonville St, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico St, Sam Houston St, UTEP, UTSA
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