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P4 will never happen
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colohank Offline
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Post: #61
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-16-2022 07:14 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 06:55 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 06:49 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-14-2022 04:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  For years we’ve talked about a P4 but I’ve concluded that there will never be a P4.

(snip)

I'm the opposite - for years I didn't think we'd ever have a P4.

But now, I think we already do have a P4, or will have in 2023. Once TX and OU leave the Big 12, it won't be a "P" anymore, it will be clearly below the other current Ps. So there we have it, IMO.

I seriously doubt the Big 12 will cease to be considered a power conference. Even without OUT their on field performance is on a par with both the PAC and the ACC in football, and they are second to none in hoops.

I think fans will just have to wrap their heads around the idea that there won't be symmetry in whatever post season tournament ultimately evolves.

Well, IMO, "power" is based more on brand value than performance.

E.g., in the latter part of the BCS era, the post-Miami/VT/BC version of the Big East was arguably the top basketball conference, and its football performance was clearly "power" level as well. But while it did have formal "power" status as part of the AQ club, it wasn't really regarded by most fans and the media as a "power" league, was constantly being criticized as not worthy, etc.

That's what I think the "NB12" will be like.

Performance begets brand value. If a school can consistently put a successful, entertaining product on the field or court, it's going to attract a following beyond its customary reach. Conversely, substandard performance can reduce brand value.

I'm old enough to remember when the American auto industry was the only game in town, and everyone aspired to own a Cadillac or Lincoln even though their doors didn't fit and their flagship models spent a lot of time in the shop. Then along came Toyota, whose quality, reliability, and eventually styling exposed Detroit's hubris, laziness, and intrenched indifference to customer needs, wants, and safety. Toyota has never declared bankruptcy. But GM and Chrysler?
06-16-2022 10:34 AM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #62
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-16-2022 09:52 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 05:57 AM)TerryD Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 05:16 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(06-15-2022 04:32 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(06-15-2022 03:55 PM)ken d Wrote:  Yet the speculation persists. I suspect it does so only because so many posters desperately hope that an end to realignment won't lead to closing down forums like this one. It was traumatic when the site was down briefly last week. Imagine if that had been permanent. What would we do to replace it?

Oh - I get it! I was writing and thinking about conference realignment long before it became a semi-mainstream topic. I spent thousands of hours on my blog, researching, and going through forums like this one and news sources during that 2010-13 timeframe in particular. There are few topics that I love discussing more than conference realignment. Believe me - I'd LOVE to believe that the Big Ten is on the precipice of making some massive expansion moves.

However, I think a lot of people here somewhat weirdly underestimate just how much it means that Texas is specifically off-the-board for realignment purposes in terms of paralyzing everything else. That was the school through which so many different major realignment scenarios revolved around. The only other school that could conceivably have that type of impact on the realignment landscape is Notre Dame. That's it.

We're just so used to seeing one big move being reciprocated by other big moves in realignment that we are collectively in denial that we just saw the biggest move that you could ever possibly make and there's simply no answer for it. Marginal expansions (at least at the Big Ten/SEC/Pac-12/ACC level) aren't going to work anymore: there's no realignment "Moneyball" move like the Big Ten turning Rutgers and Maryland into huge moneymakers that exists going forward. By the same token, there's simply no greater expansion that I can conceive of than what the SEC just did with Texas and Oklahoma. Even as a Big Ten partisan, I'm honestly still in awe that the SEC was able to pull that off. It was such a perfect and insanely powerful blockbuster move that it makes every single other possible power conference expansion out there that doesn't involve Notre Dame effectively irrelevant. It would take an inefficient (and likely per school revenue reducing) expansion of 3, 4, 5 or more non-ND schools in pretty much any conceivable Big Ten raiding of even ACC/Pac-12 schools to bring in what just bringing in UT and OU alone is able to do for the SEC.

Hence, we got the expansion paralysis that we saw in 2021 from the Alliance conferences compared to the massive movement among all power conferences in 2010-2013. I think that's going to continue as long as ND is firm with its independence (and I believe that will be the case for the foreseeable future).

Had it been Oklahoma and any other Big 12 team other than Texas joining the SEC.....Had Texas chosen to join the PAC or the ACC...................but that's not the way things went down.
If there is a saving grace for the rest of the P5/4 it will be that it's going to take a very long time for the SEC to digest Texas and Oklahoma. This time will give everyone else an opportunity to plan for survival.

I agree with you re: Notre Dame. They have a contract that guarantees football semi-independence and relevance if they are successful. The one thing the contract does not supply is guaranteed competitive money.

In the short term the B1G is insulated. They will have a new contract soon and for all intents and purposes will competitive money wise with the SEC for the immediate future.

The PAC, ACC and what's left of the Big 12 are facing some challenges. It's interesting how the conversation about collegiate sports over the last 30 years has focused on money, and the challenges of the PAC and ACC are based on how to get more to be somewhat competitive with the SEC and the B1G.

Solutions are very limited and mostly revolve around what each conference can or will do to pry a few more dollars out of ESPN (in the ACC's case) and any media outlet in the case of the PAC. The Big 12 has a plan, but the financial future is unknown.

So Frank, what can the ACC and the PAC do?
If ESPN would reopen their contract if they added schools would the ACC expand? Would the ACC be willing to take schools at ESPN's suggestion that they would ordinarily not even consider? Would the PAC add BYU to survive? Will the ACC be willing to invite West Virginia or Cincinnati or even a couple of outposts in Texas if it meant earning just a little more to be able to keep pace?


Remember, it's only temporary.


The thing that ND has going for it (that the ACC does not) that you left out of your analysis is that the NBC contract comes up for renewal in 2025, not 2036.

Lets see how much TV money ND gets then. It may sign a five year deal then (all NBC deals since 1991 but the last one were for five years).

So, it might get two contract renewal extensions before the ACC gets one. Maybe ND signs three new deals (2025, 2030, 2035) before the ACC signs one.

It also gets a partial share of ACC/ESPN money. It gets a full share of ACC Network money.

It gets massive amounts of donor money.

(ND doesn't even count donations to athletics as part of its athletics revenues. It counts them as general revenues.)

It rakes in big apparel sale money. Its stadium holds 77,000, not 50,000.

It will soon sell subscriptions to Fighting Irish TV. Etc....etc.....

ND has lots of revenue sources, not just network TV money. One thing ND has always done well is think up new revenue sources.

Signing a deal with Guinness beer, making it "the official beer of Notre Dame football" and monetizing that is one such deal.

ND is something like #8 in total revenues currently, even with a low current NBC TV deal.

I think that ND will have the revenues to remain competitive as a football independent. It can afford to "monitor the landscape" until 2036 or so.

Joining the ACC in football would just be bad business. It would lock ND football long term in a Tier 2 conference. There is no real reason to give up independence to the lowest bidder like the ACC.

Only logical place for ND would be the BIG10



Here are the poll responses of 2,500 ND fans to the following question put to them by The Athletic:


" Imagine a college football future where USC, UCLA, Stanford, Washington, Oregon, Pittsburgh and Boston College join the Big Ten. Meanwhile, Clemson, Miami and Florida State join the SEC.

Should Notre Dame join one of those two super conferences"?



Yes, join the Big Ten

40.3%

Yes, join the SEC

8.4%

No, remain independent

51.3%


(The author added this comment: "I should have added a clause to this question that in this future world, Notre Dame would not be able to play teams from the Super SEC and Super Big Ten. Basically, the Irish would be excluded from big-time college football. I’m guessing that would have changed the distribution of this substantially.

However, it was interesting to see the opinion split on the Big Ten vs. the SEC in terms of where Notre Dame should go, assuming it has to go somewhere. You prefer the Midwest footprint with more historical rivals over the SEC/ACC mashup and Notre Dame’s newer rival in Clemson.")

https://theathletic.com/3365347/2022/06/...ign=601983
(This post was last modified: 06-16-2022 10:53 AM by TerryD.)
06-16-2022 10:51 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #63
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-16-2022 10:34 AM)colohank Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 07:14 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 06:55 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 06:49 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-14-2022 04:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  For years we’ve talked about a P4 but I’ve concluded that there will never be a P4.

(snip)

I'm the opposite - for years I didn't think we'd ever have a P4.

But now, I think we already do have a P4, or will have in 2023. Once TX and OU leave the Big 12, it won't be a "P" anymore, it will be clearly below the other current Ps. So there we have it, IMO.

I seriously doubt the Big 12 will cease to be considered a power conference. Even without OUT their on field performance is on a par with both the PAC and the ACC in football, and they are second to none in hoops.

I think fans will just have to wrap their heads around the idea that there won't be symmetry in whatever post season tournament ultimately evolves.

Well, IMO, "power" is based more on brand value than performance.

E.g., in the latter part of the BCS era, the post-Miami/VT/BC version of the Big East was arguably the top basketball conference, and its football performance was clearly "power" level as well. But while it did have formal "power" status as part of the AQ club, it wasn't really regarded by most fans and the media as a "power" league, was constantly being criticized as not worthy, etc.

That's what I think the "NB12" will be like.

Performance begets brand value. If a school can consistently put a successful, entertaining product on the field or court, it's going to attract a following beyond its customary reach. Conversely, substandard performance can reduce brand value.

I'm old enough to remember when the American auto industry was the only game in town, and everyone aspired to own a Cadillac or Lincoln even though their doors didn't fit and their flagship models spent a lot of time in the shop. Then along came Toyota, whose quality, reliability, and eventually styling exposed Detroit's hubris, laziness, and intrenched indifference to customer needs, wants, and safety. Toyota has never declared bankruptcy. But GM and Chrysler?

I agree, but that takes time.

As a Cincy fan, you remember the 2005 - 2012 Big East. Performance-wise, we had top-level hoops, and competitive, power-level results on the field too.

But we were ridiculed and fans/media were constantly saying we should be booted from the AQ ranks anyway.

We lacked brand value.
06-16-2022 11:13 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #64
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-16-2022 10:51 AM)TerryD Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 09:52 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 05:57 AM)TerryD Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 05:16 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(06-15-2022 04:32 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Oh - I get it! I was writing and thinking about conference realignment long before it became a semi-mainstream topic. I spent thousands of hours on my blog, researching, and going through forums like this one and news sources during that 2010-13 timeframe in particular. There are few topics that I love discussing more than conference realignment. Believe me - I'd LOVE to believe that the Big Ten is on the precipice of making some massive expansion moves.

However, I think a lot of people here somewhat weirdly underestimate just how much it means that Texas is specifically off-the-board for realignment purposes in terms of paralyzing everything else. That was the school through which so many different major realignment scenarios revolved around. The only other school that could conceivably have that type of impact on the realignment landscape is Notre Dame. That's it.

We're just so used to seeing one big move being reciprocated by other big moves in realignment that we are collectively in denial that we just saw the biggest move that you could ever possibly make and there's simply no answer for it. Marginal expansions (at least at the Big Ten/SEC/Pac-12/ACC level) aren't going to work anymore: there's no realignment "Moneyball" move like the Big Ten turning Rutgers and Maryland into huge moneymakers that exists going forward. By the same token, there's simply no greater expansion that I can conceive of than what the SEC just did with Texas and Oklahoma. Even as a Big Ten partisan, I'm honestly still in awe that the SEC was able to pull that off. It was such a perfect and insanely powerful blockbuster move that it makes every single other possible power conference expansion out there that doesn't involve Notre Dame effectively irrelevant. It would take an inefficient (and likely per school revenue reducing) expansion of 3, 4, 5 or more non-ND schools in pretty much any conceivable Big Ten raiding of even ACC/Pac-12 schools to bring in what just bringing in UT and OU alone is able to do for the SEC.

Hence, we got the expansion paralysis that we saw in 2021 from the Alliance conferences compared to the massive movement among all power conferences in 2010-2013. I think that's going to continue as long as ND is firm with its independence (and I believe that will be the case for the foreseeable future).

Had it been Oklahoma and any other Big 12 team other than Texas joining the SEC.....Had Texas chosen to join the PAC or the ACC...................but that's not the way things went down.
If there is a saving grace for the rest of the P5/4 it will be that it's going to take a very long time for the SEC to digest Texas and Oklahoma. This time will give everyone else an opportunity to plan for survival.

I agree with you re: Notre Dame. They have a contract that guarantees football semi-independence and relevance if they are successful. The one thing the contract does not supply is guaranteed competitive money.

In the short term the B1G is insulated. They will have a new contract soon and for all intents and purposes will competitive money wise with the SEC for the immediate future.

The PAC, ACC and what's left of the Big 12 are facing some challenges. It's interesting how the conversation about collegiate sports over the last 30 years has focused on money, and the challenges of the PAC and ACC are based on how to get more to be somewhat competitive with the SEC and the B1G.

Solutions are very limited and mostly revolve around what each conference can or will do to pry a few more dollars out of ESPN (in the ACC's case) and any media outlet in the case of the PAC. The Big 12 has a plan, but the financial future is unknown.

So Frank, what can the ACC and the PAC do?
If ESPN would reopen their contract if they added schools would the ACC expand? Would the ACC be willing to take schools at ESPN's suggestion that they would ordinarily not even consider? Would the PAC add BYU to survive? Will the ACC be willing to invite West Virginia or Cincinnati or even a couple of outposts in Texas if it meant earning just a little more to be able to keep pace?


Remember, it's only temporary.


The thing that ND has going for it (that the ACC does not) that you left out of your analysis is that the NBC contract comes up for renewal in 2025, not 2036.

Lets see how much TV money ND gets then. It may sign a five year deal then (all NBC deals since 1991 but the last one were for five years).

So, it might get two contract renewal extensions before the ACC gets one. Maybe ND signs three new deals (2025, 2030, 2035) before the ACC signs one.

It also gets a partial share of ACC/ESPN money. It gets a full share of ACC Network money.

It gets massive amounts of donor money.

(ND doesn't even count donations to athletics as part of its athletics revenues. It counts them as general revenues.)

It rakes in big apparel sale money. Its stadium holds 77,000, not 50,000.

It will soon sell subscriptions to Fighting Irish TV. Etc....etc.....

ND has lots of revenue sources, not just network TV money. One thing ND has always done well is think up new revenue sources.

Signing a deal with Guinness beer, making it "the official beer of Notre Dame football" and monetizing that is one such deal.

ND is something like #8 in total revenues currently, even with a low current NBC TV deal.

I think that ND will have the revenues to remain competitive as a football independent. It can afford to "monitor the landscape" until 2036 or so.

Joining the ACC in football would just be bad business. It would lock ND football long term in a Tier 2 conference. There is no real reason to give up independence to the lowest bidder like the ACC.

Only logical place for ND would be the BIG10



Here are the poll responses of 2,500 ND fans to the following question put to them by The Athletic:


" Imagine a college football future where USC, UCLA, Stanford, Washington, Oregon, Pittsburgh and Boston College join the Big Ten. Meanwhile, Clemson, Miami and Florida State join the SEC.

Should Notre Dame join one of those two super conferences"?



Yes, join the Big Ten

40.3%

Yes, join the SEC

8.4%

No, remain independent

51.3%


(The author added this comment: "I should have added a clause to this question that in this future world, Notre Dame would not be able to play teams from the Super SEC and Super Big Ten. Basically, the Irish would be excluded from big-time college football. I’m guessing that would have changed the distribution of this substantially.

However, it was interesting to see the opinion split on the Big Ten vs. the SEC in terms of where Notre Dame should go, assuming it has to go somewhere. You prefer the Midwest footprint with more historical rivals over the SEC/ACC mashup and Notre Dame’s newer rival in Clemson.")

https://theathletic.com/3365347/2022/06/...ign=601983

I wonder why the author thought he should have added that clause. Was he afraid that he wouldn't get the response he wanted? Or, afraid that he didn't get the response he tried to elicit by making this a "push" poll?
06-16-2022 12:08 PM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #65
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-16-2022 10:34 AM)colohank Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 07:14 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 06:55 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 06:49 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-14-2022 04:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  For years we’ve talked about a P4 but I’ve concluded that there will never be a P4.

(snip)

I'm the opposite - for years I didn't think we'd ever have a P4.

But now, I think we already do have a P4, or will have in 2023. Once TX and OU leave the Big 12, it won't be a "P" anymore, it will be clearly below the other current Ps. So there we have it, IMO.

I seriously doubt the Big 12 will cease to be considered a power conference. Even without OUT their on field performance is on a par with both the PAC and the ACC in football, and they are second to none in hoops.

I think fans will just have to wrap their heads around the idea that there won't be symmetry in whatever post season tournament ultimately evolves.

Well, IMO, "power" is based more on brand value than performance.

E.g., in the latter part of the BCS era, the post-Miami/VT/BC version of the Big East was arguably the top basketball conference, and its football performance was clearly "power" level as well. But while it did have formal "power" status as part of the AQ club, it wasn't really regarded by most fans and the media as a "power" league, was constantly being criticized as not worthy, etc.

That's what I think the "NB12" will be like.

Performance begets brand value. If a school can consistently put a successful, entertaining product on the field or court, it's going to attract a following beyond its customary reach. Conversely, substandard performance can reduce brand value.

I'm old enough to remember when the American auto industry was the only game in town, and everyone aspired to own a Cadillac or Lincoln even though their doors didn't fit and their flagship models spent a lot of time in the shop. Then along came Toyota, whose quality, reliability, and eventually styling exposed Detroit's hubris, laziness, and intrenched indifference to customer needs, wants, and safety. Toyota has never declared bankruptcy. But GM and Chrysler?

Then you're also old enough to remember a time after WWII when "made in Japan" was synonymous with cheap and shoddy. Japan renamed a manufacturing town USA so they could honestly claim their products were "made in USA". Eventually, Japan was able to overcome the handicap of being defeated in war and show the world their products were now as good as any in the world. Now, their sustained performance makes them a premier brand.
06-16-2022 12:21 PM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #66
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-16-2022 12:08 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 10:51 AM)TerryD Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 09:52 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 05:57 AM)TerryD Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 05:16 AM)XLance Wrote:  Had it been Oklahoma and any other Big 12 team other than Texas joining the SEC.....Had Texas chosen to join the PAC or the ACC...................but that's not the way things went down.
If there is a saving grace for the rest of the P5/4 it will be that it's going to take a very long time for the SEC to digest Texas and Oklahoma. This time will give everyone else an opportunity to plan for survival.

I agree with you re: Notre Dame. They have a contract that guarantees football semi-independence and relevance if they are successful. The one thing the contract does not supply is guaranteed competitive money.

In the short term the B1G is insulated. They will have a new contract soon and for all intents and purposes will competitive money wise with the SEC for the immediate future.

The PAC, ACC and what's left of the Big 12 are facing some challenges. It's interesting how the conversation about collegiate sports over the last 30 years has focused on money, and the challenges of the PAC and ACC are based on how to get more to be somewhat competitive with the SEC and the B1G.

Solutions are very limited and mostly revolve around what each conference can or will do to pry a few more dollars out of ESPN (in the ACC's case) and any media outlet in the case of the PAC. The Big 12 has a plan, but the financial future is unknown.

So Frank, what can the ACC and the PAC do?
If ESPN would reopen their contract if they added schools would the ACC expand? Would the ACC be willing to take schools at ESPN's suggestion that they would ordinarily not even consider? Would the PAC add BYU to survive? Will the ACC be willing to invite West Virginia or Cincinnati or even a couple of outposts in Texas if it meant earning just a little more to be able to keep pace?


Remember, it's only temporary.


The thing that ND has going for it (that the ACC does not) that you left out of your analysis is that the NBC contract comes up for renewal in 2025, not 2036.

Lets see how much TV money ND gets then. It may sign a five year deal then (all NBC deals since 1991 but the last one were for five years).

So, it might get two contract renewal extensions before the ACC gets one. Maybe ND signs three new deals (2025, 2030, 2035) before the ACC signs one.

It also gets a partial share of ACC/ESPN money. It gets a full share of ACC Network money.

It gets massive amounts of donor money.

(ND doesn't even count donations to athletics as part of its athletics revenues. It counts them as general revenues.)

It rakes in big apparel sale money. Its stadium holds 77,000, not 50,000.

It will soon sell subscriptions to Fighting Irish TV. Etc....etc.....

ND has lots of revenue sources, not just network TV money. One thing ND has always done well is think up new revenue sources.

Signing a deal with Guinness beer, making it "the official beer of Notre Dame football" and monetizing that is one such deal.

ND is something like #8 in total revenues currently, even with a low current NBC TV deal.

I think that ND will have the revenues to remain competitive as a football independent. It can afford to "monitor the landscape" until 2036 or so.

Joining the ACC in football would just be bad business. It would lock ND football long term in a Tier 2 conference. There is no real reason to give up independence to the lowest bidder like the ACC.

Only logical place for ND would be the BIG10



Here are the poll responses of 2,500 ND fans to the following question put to them by The Athletic:


" Imagine a college football future where USC, UCLA, Stanford, Washington, Oregon, Pittsburgh and Boston College join the Big Ten. Meanwhile, Clemson, Miami and Florida State join the SEC.

Should Notre Dame join one of those two super conferences"?



Yes, join the Big Ten

40.3%

Yes, join the SEC

8.4%

No, remain independent

51.3%


(The author added this comment: "I should have added a clause to this question that in this future world, Notre Dame would not be able to play teams from the Super SEC and Super Big Ten. Basically, the Irish would be excluded from big-time college football. I’m guessing that would have changed the distribution of this substantially.

However, it was interesting to see the opinion split on the Big Ten vs. the SEC in terms of where Notre Dame should go, assuming it has to go somewhere. You prefer the Midwest footprint with more historical rivals over the SEC/ACC mashup and Notre Dame’s newer rival in Clemson.")

https://theathletic.com/3365347/2022/06/...ign=601983

I wonder why the author thought he should have added that clause. Was he afraid that he wouldn't get the response he wanted? Or, afraid that he didn't get the response he tried to elicit by making this a "push" poll?


My guess is that he thinks less people would vote for independence if that was added.

That is just my guess, though.

I do not think that he is "afraid" of anything. He just didn't think to add that to the poll question beforehand.

This was one question in a multiple question poll to ND fans in The Athletic about how they view the overall state of ND athletics.

It was near the bottom of a fairly long list of poll questions. None of the others had to do with conferences, though.
(This post was last modified: 06-16-2022 06:00 PM by TerryD.)
06-16-2022 12:48 PM
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Wahoowa84 Offline
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Post: #67
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-16-2022 11:13 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 10:34 AM)colohank Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 07:14 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 06:55 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 06:49 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I'm the opposite - for years I didn't think we'd ever have a P4.

But now, I think we already do have a P4, or will have in 2023. Once TX and OU leave the Big 12, it won't be a "P" anymore, it will be clearly below the other current Ps. So there we have it, IMO.

I seriously doubt the Big 12 will cease to be considered a power conference. Even without OUT their on field performance is on a par with both the PAC and the ACC in football, and they are second to none in hoops.

I think fans will just have to wrap their heads around the idea that there won't be symmetry in whatever post season tournament ultimately evolves.

Well, IMO, "power" is based more on brand value than performance.

E.g., in the latter part of the BCS era, the post-Miami/VT/BC version of the Big East was arguably the top basketball conference, and its football performance was clearly "power" level as well. But while it did have formal "power" status as part of the AQ club, it wasn't really regarded by most fans and the media as a "power" league, was constantly being criticized as not worthy, etc.

That's what I think the "NB12" will be like.

Performance begets brand value. If a school can consistently put a successful, entertaining product on the field or court, it's going to attract a following beyond its customary reach. Conversely, substandard performance can reduce brand value.

I'm old enough to remember when the American auto industry was the only game in town, and everyone aspired to own a Cadillac or Lincoln even though their doors didn't fit and their flagship models spent a lot of time in the shop. Then along came Toyota, whose quality, reliability, and eventually styling exposed Detroit's hubris, laziness, and intrenched indifference to customer needs, wants, and safety. Toyota has never declared bankruptcy. But GM and Chrysler?

I agree, but that takes time.

As a Cincy fan, you remember the 2005 - 2012 Big East. Performance-wise, we had top-level hoops, and competitive, power-level results on the field too.

But we were ridiculed and fans/media were constantly saying we should be booted from the AQ ranks anyway.

We lacked brand value.

Agree that fans and media may perceive the future B12 as something less than a full-fledged “Power” conference. Without Texas and Oklahoma, the last football champion from the B12 was BYU in 1984. This uncertainty in perception is a reason why the B12 needs to optimize the OUT transition window…give new members the broadest exposure, enable legacy members to maximize revenue, resolve CFP expansion, and negotiate the new media deal.

FWIW - I believe that the mid-70s through early 90s ACC was a “Power” football conference (with ‘81 Clemson and ‘90 Georgia Tech as national champions). The B12 can promote the P5 label into the foreseeable future, but it’s hard to control perceptions longer-term without national championship contenders (Miami and VT provided championship-level exposure to the Big East).
06-16-2022 01:41 PM
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Just Joe Offline
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Post: #68
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-16-2022 12:21 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 10:34 AM)colohank Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 07:14 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 06:55 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 06:49 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I'm the opposite - for years I didn't think we'd ever have a P4.

But now, I think we already do have a P4, or will have in 2023. Once TX and OU leave the Big 12, it won't be a "P" anymore, it will be clearly below the other current Ps. So there we have it, IMO.

I seriously doubt the Big 12 will cease to be considered a power conference. Even without OUT their on field performance is on a par with both the PAC and the ACC in football, and they are second to none in hoops.

I think fans will just have to wrap their heads around the idea that there won't be symmetry in whatever post season tournament ultimately evolves.

Well, IMO, "power" is based more on brand value than performance.

E.g., in the latter part of the BCS era, the post-Miami/VT/BC version of the Big East was arguably the top basketball conference, and its football performance was clearly "power" level as well. But while it did have formal "power" status as part of the AQ club, it wasn't really regarded by most fans and the media as a "power" league, was constantly being criticized as not worthy, etc.

That's what I think the "NB12" will be like.

Performance begets brand value. If a school can consistently put a successful, entertaining product on the field or court, it's going to attract a following beyond its customary reach. Conversely, substandard performance can reduce brand value.

I'm old enough to remember when the American auto industry was the only game in town, and everyone aspired to own a Cadillac or Lincoln even though their doors didn't fit and their flagship models spent a lot of time in the shop. Then along came Toyota, whose quality, reliability, and eventually styling exposed Detroit's hubris, laziness, and intrenched indifference to customer needs, wants, and safety. Toyota has never declared bankruptcy. But GM and Chrysler?

Then you're also old enough to remember a time after WWII when "made in Japan" was synonymous with cheap and shoddy. Japan renamed a manufacturing town USA so they could honestly claim their products were "made in USA". Eventually, Japan was able to overcome the handicap of being defeated in war and show the world their products were now as good as any in the world. Now, their sustained performance makes them a premier brand.

Nah, urban legend.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Made_in_USA#Urban_myth
06-16-2022 01:48 PM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #69
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-16-2022 09:52 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 05:57 AM)TerryD Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 05:16 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(06-15-2022 04:32 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(06-15-2022 03:55 PM)ken d Wrote:  Yet the speculation persists. I suspect it does so only because so many posters desperately hope that an end to realignment won't lead to closing down forums like this one. It was traumatic when the site was down briefly last week. Imagine if that had been permanent. What would we do to replace it?

Oh - I get it! I was writing and thinking about conference realignment long before it became a semi-mainstream topic. I spent thousands of hours on my blog, researching, and going through forums like this one and news sources during that 2010-13 timeframe in particular. There are few topics that I love discussing more than conference realignment. Believe me - I'd LOVE to believe that the Big Ten is on the precipice of making some massive expansion moves.

However, I think a lot of people here somewhat weirdly underestimate just how much it means that Texas is specifically off-the-board for realignment purposes in terms of paralyzing everything else. That was the school through which so many different major realignment scenarios revolved around. The only other school that could conceivably have that type of impact on the realignment landscape is Notre Dame. That's it.

We're just so used to seeing one big move being reciprocated by other big moves in realignment that we are collectively in denial that we just saw the biggest move that you could ever possibly make and there's simply no answer for it. Marginal expansions (at least at the Big Ten/SEC/Pac-12/ACC level) aren't going to work anymore: there's no realignment "Moneyball" move like the Big Ten turning Rutgers and Maryland into huge moneymakers that exists going forward. By the same token, there's simply no greater expansion that I can conceive of than what the SEC just did with Texas and Oklahoma. Even as a Big Ten partisan, I'm honestly still in awe that the SEC was able to pull that off. It was such a perfect and insanely powerful blockbuster move that it makes every single other possible power conference expansion out there that doesn't involve Notre Dame effectively irrelevant. It would take an inefficient (and likely per school revenue reducing) expansion of 3, 4, 5 or more non-ND schools in pretty much any conceivable Big Ten raiding of even ACC/Pac-12 schools to bring in what just bringing in UT and OU alone is able to do for the SEC.

Hence, we got the expansion paralysis that we saw in 2021 from the Alliance conferences compared to the massive movement among all power conferences in 2010-2013. I think that's going to continue as long as ND is firm with its independence (and I believe that will be the case for the foreseeable future).

Had it been Oklahoma and any other Big 12 team other than Texas joining the SEC.....Had Texas chosen to join the PAC or the ACC...................but that's not the way things went down.
If there is a saving grace for the rest of the P5/4 it will be that it's going to take a very long time for the SEC to digest Texas and Oklahoma. This time will give everyone else an opportunity to plan for survival.

I agree with you re: Notre Dame. They have a contract that guarantees football semi-independence and relevance if they are successful. The one thing the contract does not supply is guaranteed competitive money.

In the short term the B1G is insulated. They will have a new contract soon and for all intents and purposes will competitive money wise with the SEC for the immediate future.

The PAC, ACC and what's left of the Big 12 are facing some challenges. It's interesting how the conversation about collegiate sports over the last 30 years has focused on money, and the challenges of the PAC and ACC are based on how to get more to be somewhat competitive with the SEC and the B1G.

Solutions are very limited and mostly revolve around what each conference can or will do to pry a few more dollars out of ESPN (in the ACC's case) and any media outlet in the case of the PAC. The Big 12 has a plan, but the financial future is unknown.

So Frank, what can the ACC and the PAC do?
If ESPN would reopen their contract if they added schools would the ACC expand? Would the ACC be willing to take schools at ESPN's suggestion that they would ordinarily not even consider? Would the PAC add BYU to survive? Will the ACC be willing to invite West Virginia or Cincinnati or even a couple of outposts in Texas if it meant earning just a little more to be able to keep pace?


Remember, it's only temporary.


The thing that ND has going for it (that the ACC does not) that you left out of your analysis is that the NBC contract comes up for renewal in 2025, not 2036.

Lets see how much TV money ND gets then. It may sign a five year deal then (all NBC deals since 1991 but the last one were for five years).

So, it might get two contract renewal extensions before the ACC gets one. Maybe ND signs three new deals (2025, 2030, 2035) before the ACC signs one.

It also gets a partial share of ACC/ESPN money. It gets a full share of ACC Network money.

It gets massive amounts of donor money.

(ND doesn't even count donations to athletics as part of its athletics revenues. It counts them as general revenues.)

It rakes in big apparel sale money. Its stadium holds 77,000, not 50,000.

It will soon sell subscriptions to Fighting Irish TV. Etc....etc.....

ND has lots of revenue sources, not just network TV money. One thing ND has always done well is think up new revenue sources.

Signing a deal with Guinness beer, making it "the official beer of Notre Dame football" and monetizing that is one such deal.

ND is something like #8 in total revenues currently, even with a low current NBC TV deal.

I think that ND will have the revenues to remain competitive as a football independent. It can afford to "monitor the landscape" until 2036 or so.

Joining the ACC in football would just be bad business. It would lock ND football long term in a Tier 2 conference. There is no real reason to give up independence to the lowest bidder like the ACC.

Only logical place for ND would be the BIG10

Logical, yes, but the Irish are going to have to settle into the ACC until 2035-36.
Since the networks are trading games for announcers, one has to wonder if ESPN could trade Notre Dame to the B1G for a guaranteed slice of Big Ten content for the life of the contract
(This post was last modified: 06-16-2022 02:31 PM by XLance.)
06-16-2022 02:30 PM
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EdwordL Offline
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Post: #70
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-16-2022 11:13 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 10:34 AM)colohank Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 07:14 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 06:55 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 06:49 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I'm the opposite - for years I didn't think we'd ever have a P4.

But now, I think we already do have a P4, or will have in 2023. Once TX and OU leave the Big 12, it won't be a "P" anymore, it will be clearly below the other current Ps. So there we have it, IMO.

I seriously doubt the Big 12 will cease to be considered a power conference. Even without OUT their on field performance is on a par with both the PAC and the ACC in football, and they are second to none in hoops.

I think fans will just have to wrap their heads around the idea that there won't be symmetry in whatever post season tournament ultimately evolves.

Well, IMO, "power" is based more on brand value than performance.

E.g., in the latter part of the BCS era, the post-Miami/VT/BC version of the Big East was arguably the top basketball conference, and its football performance was clearly "power" level as well. But while it did have formal "power" status as part of the AQ club, it wasn't really regarded by most fans and the media as a "power" league, was constantly being criticized as not worthy, etc.

That's what I think the "NB12" will be like.

Performance begets brand value. If a school can consistently put a successful, entertaining product on the field or court, it's going to attract a following beyond its customary reach. Conversely, substandard performance can reduce brand value.

I'm old enough to remember when the American auto industry was the only game in town, and everyone aspired to own a Cadillac or Lincoln even though their doors didn't fit and their flagship models spent a lot of time in the shop. Then along came Toyota, whose quality, reliability, and eventually styling exposed Detroit's hubris, laziness, and intrenched indifference to customer needs, wants, and safety. Toyota has never declared bankruptcy. But GM and Chrysler?

I agree, but that takes time.

As a Cincy fan, you remember the 2005 - 2012 Big East. Performance-wise, we had top-level hoops, and competitive, power-level results on the field too.

But we were ridiculed and fans/media were constantly saying we should be booted from the AQ ranks anyway.

We lacked brand value.

Unfortunately, it is true that the Big East of that day lacked brand value: WVU won 3 BCS bowls against UGA, OU, and Clemson around that time (still 3-0 in BCS bowls), but the conference was derided.
06-16-2022 04:08 PM
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CardinalJim Offline
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Post: #71
RE: P4 will never happen
I still believe we’ll see some “adjustments” to the leagues and eventually see a P4. The ball is in ESPN’s court, the GOR partner of The ACC and SEC, for this to happen before the early 2030’s. If ESPN wants FSU / Clemson or any other program, they’ll simply move them to the SEC. If this move includes increased payments to The ACC and a pair of replacements, it could happen any time.

I don’t see The Big 12 going away. I think we’ll see some type of a merger between The Big 12 and The ACC. Whether it happens under The Big 12 umbrella or The ACC umbrella is anyones guess.

A clue may well be if The Big 12 signs a GOR when all the scheduled movements are completed.
(This post was last modified: 06-17-2022 06:29 AM by CardinalJim.)
06-16-2022 04:33 PM
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BePcr07 Offline
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Post: #72
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-16-2022 04:33 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  I still believe we’ll see some “adjustments” to the leagues and eventually see a P4. The ball is in ESPN’s court, the GOR partner of The ACC and SEC, for this to happen before the early 2030’s. If ESPN wants FSU / Clemson or any other program, they’ll simply move them to the SEC. If this move includes increased payments to The ACC and a pair of replacements, it could happen any time.

I don’t see The Big 12 going away. I think we’ll see some type of a merger between The Big 12 and The ACC. Whether it happens under The Big 12 umbrella or The ACC umbrella is anyones guess.

A clue may well be if The Big 12 signs a GOR when the all the scheduled movements are completed.

Agreed. I see something of a P4 like:
Tier I: B1G/SEC
Tier II: PAC/XII-ACC
06-16-2022 04:46 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #73
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-16-2022 04:08 PM)EdwordL Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 11:13 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 10:34 AM)colohank Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 07:14 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 06:55 AM)ken d Wrote:  I seriously doubt the Big 12 will cease to be considered a power conference. Even without OUT their on field performance is on a par with both the PAC and the ACC in football, and they are second to none in hoops.

I think fans will just have to wrap their heads around the idea that there won't be symmetry in whatever post season tournament ultimately evolves.

Well, IMO, "power" is based more on brand value than performance.

E.g., in the latter part of the BCS era, the post-Miami/VT/BC version of the Big East was arguably the top basketball conference, and its football performance was clearly "power" level as well. But while it did have formal "power" status as part of the AQ club, it wasn't really regarded by most fans and the media as a "power" league, was constantly being criticized as not worthy, etc.

That's what I think the "NB12" will be like.

Performance begets brand value. If a school can consistently put a successful, entertaining product on the field or court, it's going to attract a following beyond its customary reach. Conversely, substandard performance can reduce brand value.

I'm old enough to remember when the American auto industry was the only game in town, and everyone aspired to own a Cadillac or Lincoln even though their doors didn't fit and their flagship models spent a lot of time in the shop. Then along came Toyota, whose quality, reliability, and eventually styling exposed Detroit's hubris, laziness, and intrenched indifference to customer needs, wants, and safety. Toyota has never declared bankruptcy. But GM and Chrysler?

I agree, but that takes time.

As a Cincy fan, you remember the 2005 - 2012 Big East. Performance-wise, we had top-level hoops, and competitive, power-level results on the field too.

But we were ridiculed and fans/media were constantly saying we should be booted from the AQ ranks anyway.

We lacked brand value.

Unfortunately, it is true that the Big East of that day lacked brand value: WVU won 3 BCS bowls against UGA, OU, and Clemson around that time (still 3-0 in BCS bowls), but the conference was derided.

Yes, and Louisville won two BCS bowl games as well.

The Big East was 5-3 in BCS Bowls during those eight years, yet got constantly ridiculed. In contrast, the AAC is 2-4 in NY6 bowl games and yet many think they are as good or better than the Big East was its final years.

That final football version of the Big East was considerably better than its reputation.
06-16-2022 06:16 PM
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otown Offline
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Post: #74
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-16-2022 11:13 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 10:34 AM)colohank Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 07:14 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 06:55 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 06:49 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I'm the opposite - for years I didn't think we'd ever have a P4.

But now, I think we already do have a P4, or will have in 2023. Once TX and OU leave the Big 12, it won't be a "P" anymore, it will be clearly below the other current Ps. So there we have it, IMO.

I seriously doubt the Big 12 will cease to be considered a power conference. Even without OUT their on field performance is on a par with both the PAC and the ACC in football, and they are second to none in hoops.

I think fans will just have to wrap their heads around the idea that there won't be symmetry in whatever post season tournament ultimately evolves.

Well, IMO, "power" is based more on brand value than performance.

E.g., in the latter part of the BCS era, the post-Miami/VT/BC version of the Big East was arguably the top basketball conference, and its football performance was clearly "power" level as well. But while it did have formal "power" status as part of the AQ club, it wasn't really regarded by most fans and the media as a "power" league, was constantly being criticized as not worthy, etc.

That's what I think the "NB12" will be like.

Performance begets brand value. If a school can consistently put a successful, entertaining product on the field or court, it's going to attract a following beyond its customary reach. Conversely, substandard performance can reduce brand value.

I'm old enough to remember when the American auto industry was the only game in town, and everyone aspired to own a Cadillac or Lincoln even though their doors didn't fit and their flagship models spent a lot of time in the shop. Then along came Toyota, whose quality, reliability, and eventually styling exposed Detroit's hubris, laziness, and intrenched indifference to customer needs, wants, and safety. Toyota has never declared bankruptcy. But GM and Chrysler?

I agree, but that takes time.

As a Cincy fan, you remember the 2005 - 2012 Big East. Performance-wise, we had top-level hoops, and competitive, power-level results on the field too.

But we were ridiculed and fans/media were constantly saying we should be booted from the AQ ranks anyway.

We lacked brand value.

Sending UCONN to the BCS bowl didn't do you all favors via perception........
06-16-2022 07:03 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #75
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-16-2022 06:16 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 04:08 PM)EdwordL Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 11:13 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 10:34 AM)colohank Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 07:14 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Well, IMO, "power" is based more on brand value than performance.

E.g., in the latter part of the BCS era, the post-Miami/VT/BC version of the Big East was arguably the top basketball conference, and its football performance was clearly "power" level as well. But while it did have formal "power" status as part of the AQ club, it wasn't really regarded by most fans and the media as a "power" league, was constantly being criticized as not worthy, etc.

That's what I think the "NB12" will be like.

Performance begets brand value. If a school can consistently put a successful, entertaining product on the field or court, it's going to attract a following beyond its customary reach. Conversely, substandard performance can reduce brand value.

I'm old enough to remember when the American auto industry was the only game in town, and everyone aspired to own a Cadillac or Lincoln even though their doors didn't fit and their flagship models spent a lot of time in the shop. Then along came Toyota, whose quality, reliability, and eventually styling exposed Detroit's hubris, laziness, and intrenched indifference to customer needs, wants, and safety. Toyota has never declared bankruptcy. But GM and Chrysler?

I agree, but that takes time.

As a Cincy fan, you remember the 2005 - 2012 Big East. Performance-wise, we had top-level hoops, and competitive, power-level results on the field too.

But we were ridiculed and fans/media were constantly saying we should be booted from the AQ ranks anyway.

We lacked brand value.

Unfortunately, it is true that the Big East of that day lacked brand value: WVU won 3 BCS bowls against UGA, OU, and Clemson around that time (still 3-0 in BCS bowls), but the conference was derided.

Yes, and Louisville won two BCS bowl games as well.

The Big East was 5-3 in BCS Bowls during those eight years, yet got constantly ridiculed. In contrast, the AAC is 2-4 in NY6 bowl games and yet many think they are as good or better than the Big East was its final years.

That final football version of the Big East was considerably better than its reputation.

Right—it was the ACC who couldn’t win a BCS bowl. Their record was putrid during the post expansion era.
06-16-2022 08:42 PM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #76
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-16-2022 04:33 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  I still believe we’ll see some “adjustments” to the leagues and eventually see a P4. The ball is in ESPN’s court, the GOR partner of The ACC and SEC, for this to happen before the early 2030’s. If ESPN wants FSU / Clemson or any other program, they’ll simply move them to the SEC. If this move includes increased payments to The ACC and a pair of replacements, it could happen any time.

I don’t see The Big 12 going away. I think we’ll see some type of a merger between The Big 12 and The ACC. Whether it happens under The Big 12 umbrella or The ACC umbrella is anyones guess.

A clue may well be if The Big 12 signs a GOR when the all the scheduled movements are completed.

It's going to be interesting to see what ESPN will do re: the Big 12.
Evidently FOX didn't see much value in the Big 12 Championship game and ESPN has never had to fund the Big 12 media rights on their own.
Houston, Cincinnati and UCF were getting what? $12 million each in the AAC, while BYU was collecting $7 million per year on their independent contract with ESPN.
Just those operational expenses of adding those four schools is a pretty hefty increase for ESPN or FOX or any other entity that wants to broadcast Big 12 sports to an audience of unknown size.

As for "adjustments", there is only one logical move; shift Louisville to the SEC and place South Carolina in the ACC. It gives the SEC another premiere basketball school and built in rival for Kentucky and gives the ACC another "big stadium" football school. Plus this swap is geographically sound, which in turn is fan friendly and will promote regional rivalries.
06-17-2022 05:17 AM
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schmolik Offline
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Post: #77
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-16-2022 07:03 PM)otown Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 11:13 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 10:34 AM)colohank Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 07:14 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 06:55 AM)ken d Wrote:  I seriously doubt the Big 12 will cease to be considered a power conference. Even without OUT their on field performance is on a par with both the PAC and the ACC in football, and they are second to none in hoops.

I think fans will just have to wrap their heads around the idea that there won't be symmetry in whatever post season tournament ultimately evolves.

Well, IMO, "power" is based more on brand value than performance.

E.g., in the latter part of the BCS era, the post-Miami/VT/BC version of the Big East was arguably the top basketball conference, and its football performance was clearly "power" level as well. But while it did have formal "power" status as part of the AQ club, it wasn't really regarded by most fans and the media as a "power" league, was constantly being criticized as not worthy, etc.

That's what I think the "NB12" will be like.

Performance begets brand value. If a school can consistently put a successful, entertaining product on the field or court, it's going to attract a following beyond its customary reach. Conversely, substandard performance can reduce brand value.

I'm old enough to remember when the American auto industry was the only game in town, and everyone aspired to own a Cadillac or Lincoln even though their doors didn't fit and their flagship models spent a lot of time in the shop. Then along came Toyota, whose quality, reliability, and eventually styling exposed Detroit's hubris, laziness, and intrenched indifference to customer needs, wants, and safety. Toyota has never declared bankruptcy. But GM and Chrysler?

I agree, but that takes time.

As a Cincy fan, you remember the 2005 - 2012 Big East. Performance-wise, we had top-level hoops, and competitive, power-level results on the field too.

But we were ridiculed and fans/media were constantly saying we should be booted from the AQ ranks anyway.

We lacked brand value.

Sending UCONN to the BCS bowl didn't do you all favors via perception........

We're judging UConn by 2020's level UConn. 2010's UConn wasn't a football powerhouse by any means but they weren't anywhere near as bad as the current state of UConn football either.
06-17-2022 05:30 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #78
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-17-2022 05:17 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 04:33 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  I still believe we’ll see some “adjustments” to the leagues and eventually see a P4. The ball is in ESPN’s court, the GOR partner of The ACC and SEC, for this to happen before the early 2030’s. If ESPN wants FSU / Clemson or any other program, they’ll simply move them to the SEC. If this move includes increased payments to The ACC and a pair of replacements, it could happen any time.

I don’t see The Big 12 going away. I think we’ll see some type of a merger between The Big 12 and The ACC. Whether it happens under The Big 12 umbrella or The ACC umbrella is anyones guess.

A clue may well be if The Big 12 signs a GOR when the all the scheduled movements are completed.

It's going to be interesting to see what ESPN will do re: the Big 12.
Evidently FOX didn't see much value in the Big 12 Championship game and ESPN has never had to fund the Big 12 media rights on their own.
Houston, Cincinnati and UCF were getting what? $12 million each in the AAC, while BYU was collecting $7 million per year on their independent contract with ESPN.
Just those operational expenses of adding those four schools is a pretty hefty increase for ESPN or FOX or any other entity that wants to broadcast Big 12 sports to an audience of unknown size.

As for "adjustments", there is only one logical move; shift Louisville to the SEC and place South Carolina in the ACC. It gives the SEC another premiere basketball school and built in rival for Kentucky and gives the ACC another "big stadium" football school. Plus this swap is geographically sound, which in turn is fan friendly and will promote regional rivalries.

I imagine South Carolina has a "no-trade clause". Maybe ESPN could buy them out with a one-time cash payment north of $1 billion.
06-17-2022 09:00 AM
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CliftonAve Offline
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Post: #79
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-16-2022 08:42 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 06:16 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 04:08 PM)EdwordL Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 11:13 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 10:34 AM)colohank Wrote:  Performance begets brand value. If a school can consistently put a successful, entertaining product on the field or court, it's going to attract a following beyond its customary reach. Conversely, substandard performance can reduce brand value.

I'm old enough to remember when the American auto industry was the only game in town, and everyone aspired to own a Cadillac or Lincoln even though their doors didn't fit and their flagship models spent a lot of time in the shop. Then along came Toyota, whose quality, reliability, and eventually styling exposed Detroit's hubris, laziness, and intrenched indifference to customer needs, wants, and safety. Toyota has never declared bankruptcy. But GM and Chrysler?

I agree, but that takes time.

As a Cincy fan, you remember the 2005 - 2012 Big East. Performance-wise, we had top-level hoops, and competitive, power-level results on the field too.

But we were ridiculed and fans/media were constantly saying we should be booted from the AQ ranks anyway.

We lacked brand value.

Unfortunately, it is true that the Big East of that day lacked brand value: WVU won 3 BCS bowls against UGA, OU, and Clemson around that time (still 3-0 in BCS bowls), but the conference was derided.

Yes, and Louisville won two BCS bowl games as well.

The Big East was 5-3 in BCS Bowls during those eight years, yet got constantly ridiculed. In contrast, the AAC is 2-4 in NY6 bowl games and yet many think they are as good or better than the Big East was its final years.

That final football version of the Big East was considerably better than its reputation.

Right—it was the ACC who couldn’t win a BCS bowl. Their record was putrid during the post expansion era.

The BXII fate is going to be determined by how it is treated by ESPN. One of the reasons the Big East was not given any credit from 2005-2011 was because it was under constant attack from ESPN personalities and talking heads. Back in those days I could be watching a game between two PAC12 teams and Rod Gilmore or someone who start going on a rant about how crappy the Big East was. On Sports Center they would frequently put up a graphic that said "Big Least". When Pitt and Syracuse announced they were leaving the league Mark May said the teams remaining in the conference should never play in a meaningful bowl game again (this was before Rutgers and Louisville had yet to announce they were leaving). I have never seen anything like it-- they sounded like a couple of the trolls who used to and occasionally still frequent this board.

If the BXII does not get this type of attack, their image won't be tarnished like the Big East was.
06-17-2022 09:17 AM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #80
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-17-2022 09:00 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(06-17-2022 05:17 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 04:33 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  I still believe we’ll see some “adjustments” to the leagues and eventually see a P4. The ball is in ESPN’s court, the GOR partner of The ACC and SEC, for this to happen before the early 2030’s. If ESPN wants FSU / Clemson or any other program, they’ll simply move them to the SEC. If this move includes increased payments to The ACC and a pair of replacements, it could happen any time.

I don’t see The Big 12 going away. I think we’ll see some type of a merger between The Big 12 and The ACC. Whether it happens under The Big 12 umbrella or The ACC umbrella is anyones guess.

A clue may well be if The Big 12 signs a GOR when the all the scheduled movements are completed.

It's going to be interesting to see what ESPN will do re: the Big 12.
Evidently FOX didn't see much value in the Big 12 Championship game and ESPN has never had to fund the Big 12 media rights on their own.
Houston, Cincinnati and UCF were getting what? $12 million each in the AAC, while BYU was collecting $7 million per year on their independent contract with ESPN.
Just those operational expenses of adding those four schools is a pretty hefty increase for ESPN or FOX or any other entity that wants to broadcast Big 12 sports to an audience of unknown size.

As for "adjustments", there is only one logical move; shift Louisville to the SEC and place South Carolina in the ACC. It gives the SEC another premiere basketball school and built in rival for Kentucky and gives the ACC another "big stadium" football school. Plus this swap is geographically sound, which in turn is fan friendly and will promote regional rivalries.

I imagine South Carolina has a "no-trade clause". Maybe ESPN could buy them out with a one-time cash payment north of $1 billion.

I don't think the ACC would want to trade Louisville either, but CJ brought up "adjustments", and the Louisville for South Carolina seems the most logical. My preference would be Kentucky and Tennessee for Florida State and Miami.
06-17-2022 11:16 AM
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