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P4 will never happen
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Frank the Tank Offline
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Post: #21
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-15-2022 07:34 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(06-14-2022 04:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  For years we’ve talked about a P4 but I’ve concluded that there will never be a P4.

For there to be a P4, the others would have to gobble up the majority of one of the weaker leagues. If this was going to happen, the prime time for that to happen was after the Texas/Oklahoma SEC announcement yet the others passed on the remaining 8.

Kansas is probably the only Big 12 school left that holds any interest to the Big 10 or SEC. While the PAC 12 has talked about a CTZ foothold the institutional and cultural differences proved to be a bridge too far and I’m guessing the money isn’t there.

The ACC Is locked into that meddlesome GOR so they aren’t a good candidate to be dissolved. While it’s feasible that it’s members could be dispersed across the Big 10, SEC, and Big 12 the power structure would be more akin to a Power 2 (SEC, Big 10) and then 2 leagues (PAC 12 and Big 12) who are a significant step down.

Dissolving the Pac 12 has geography working against us. Even if there was a scenario where the Big 10 cherry picked the PAC 12 and what was left merged into the Big 12 this would undoubtedly spur the SEC to raid the ACC in response and again, the end result is a Power 2 and then 2 lesser leagues.

The power dynamics just don’t lend themselves to a P4.

Likely top-down scenario, just my guess, is that the SEC grabs a couple of ACC teams (like FSU and/or Clemson) at some point down the line. ACC starts backfilling with Big 12, more ACC potentially leave for SEC/BIG, more Big 12 to ACC, Big 12 backfills with AAC. Just my guess.

That's possible down the road: I frankly think the Big Ten is actually more interested in certain ACC teams than the SEC is at this point. There are multiple ACC schools (e.g. UVA, UNC, Duke, Georgia Tech, maybe Miami) that meet the Big Ten's academic and institutional requirements while also addressing the league's geographic and demographic goals for expansion. In contrast, there's simply no better single expansion that any league can get than adding Texas and Oklahoma outside of being able to convince Notre Dame to join a conference. The SEC literally can't get a better expansion and the bar for them to make money on adding more schools is going to be astronomical going forward. Now, I'm sure the SEC would take UNC if they approached them because they fill the one growing Southern market where they have no presence, but I don't think it's obvious that schools like Florida State or Clemson are somehow destined to head to the SEC.

In any event, though, the ACC Grant of Rights agreement exists. None of us should pretend that it's going away or schools are going to be willing to pay huge upfront damages in order to be released from their obligations. Even UT and OU are having a hard time stomaching paying a year or two of GOR-related damages to the Big 12, much less the 10-plus years that the ACC schools would need to pay. That's an intractable factor in realignment discussions for the next several years. We basically need to wait 10 years from now for poaching ACC schools to be realistically viable, which might as well be 100 years from now with the pace of change of the NCAA possibly restructuring (or even going away), likely a totally different playoff system, how NIL might actually give some competitive power back to certain individual schools regardless of conference membership (e.g. USC and Miami), etc.

The upshot is that I think the current Big 12 is going to stay together for awhile. They might effectively lose power status by virtue of them not having any true anchor marquee programs, but I don't believe it will be because they actually lose members over the next decade (and per my earlier post, there are reasons why the other power conferences would still want to treat the Big 12 as a power league for CFP control purposes).
06-15-2022 09:58 AM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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Post: #22
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-15-2022 07:34 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(06-14-2022 04:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  For years we’ve talked about a P4 but I’ve concluded that there will never be a P4.

For there to be a P4, the others would have to gobble up the majority of one of the weaker leagues. If this was going to happen, the prime time for that to happen was after the Texas/Oklahoma SEC announcement yet the others passed on the remaining 8.

Kansas is probably the only Big 12 school left that holds any interest to the Big 10 or SEC. While the PAC 12 has talked about a CTZ foothold the institutional and cultural differences proved to be a bridge too far and I’m guessing the money isn’t there.

The ACC Is locked into that meddlesome GOR so they aren’t a good candidate to be dissolved. While it’s feasible that it’s members could be dispersed across the Big 10, SEC, and Big 12 the power structure would be more akin to a Power 2 (SEC, Big 10) and then 2 leagues (PAC 12 and Big 12) who are a significant step down.

Dissolving the Pac 12 has geography working against us. Even if there was a scenario where the Big 10 cherry picked the PAC 12 and what was left merged into the Big 12 this would undoubtedly spur the SEC to raid the ACC in response and again, the end result is a Power 2 and then 2 lesser leagues.

The power dynamics just don’t lend themselves to a P4.

Likely top-down scenario, just my guess, is that the SEC grabs a couple of ACC teams (like FSU and/or Clemson) at some point down the line. ACC starts backfilling with Big 12, more ACC potentially leave for SEC/BIG, more Big 12 to ACC, Big 12 backfills with AAC. Just my guess.

That's possible down the road: I frankly think the Big Ten is actually more interested in certain ACC teams than the SEC is at this point. There are multiple ACC schools (e.g. UVA, UNC, Duke, Georgia Tech, maybe Miami) that meet the Big Ten's academic and institutional requirements while also addressing the league's geographic and demographic goals for expansion. In contrast, there's simply no better single expansion that any league can get than adding Texas and Oklahoma outside of being able to convince Notre Dame to join a conference. The SEC literally can't get a better expansion and the bar for them to make money on adding more schools is going to be astronomical going forward. Now, I'm sure the SEC would take UNC if they approached them because they fill the one growing Southern market where they have no presence, but I don't think it's obvious that schools like Florida State or Clemson are somehow destined to head to the SEC.

In any event, though, the ACC Grant of Rights agreement exists. None of us should pretend that it's going away or schools are going to be willing to pay huge upfront damages in order to be released from their obligations. Even UT and OU are having a hard time stomaching paying a year or two of GOR-related damages to the Big 12, much less the 10-plus years that the ACC schools would need to pay. That's an intractable factor in realignment discussions for the next several years. We basically need to wait 10 years from now for poaching ACC schools to be realistically viable, which might as well be 100 years from now with the pace of change of the NCAA possibly restructuring (or even going away), likely a totally different playoff system, how NIL might actually give some competitive power back to certain individual schools regardless of conference membership (e.g. USC and Miami), etc.

The upshot is that I think the current Big 12 is going to stay together for awhile. They might effectively lose power status by virtue of them not having any true anchor marquee programs, but I don't believe it will be because they actually lose members over the next decade (and per my earlier post, there are reasons why the other power conferences would still want to treat the Big 12 as a power league for CFP control purposes).
06-15-2022 09:58 AM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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Post: #23
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-15-2022 09:22 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(06-14-2022 04:53 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  
(06-14-2022 04:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  For years we’ve talked about a P4 but I’ve concluded that there will never be a P4.

For there to be a P4, the others would have to gobble up the majority of one of the weaker leagues. If this was going to happen, the prime time for that to happen was after the Texas/Oklahoma SEC announcement yet the others passed on the remaining 8.

Kansas is probably the only Big 12 school left that holds any interest to the Big 10 or SEC. While the PAC 12 has talked about a CTZ foothold the institutional and cultural differences proved to be a bridge too far and I’m guessing the money isn’t there.

The ACC Is locked into that meddlesome GOR so they aren’t a good candidate to be dissolved. While it’s feasible that it’s members could be dispersed across the Big 10, SEC, and Big 12 the power structure would be more akin to a Power 2 (SEC, Big 10) and then 2 leagues (PAC 12 and Big 12) who are a significant step down.

Dissolving the Pac 12 has geography working against us. Even if there was a scenario where the Big 10 cherry picked the PAC 12 and what was left merged into the Big 12 this would undoubtedly spur the SEC to raid the ACC in response and again, the end result is a Power 2 and then 2 lesser leagues.

The power dynamics just don’t lend themselves to a P4.
The Big 12 is the next league to disappear (ala the Big East). It doesn’t have a top 30 brand.

I do think there's a key difference between the old Big East and current Big 12 and the OP alluded to it here: the current Big 12 really doesn't have any schools besides *maybe* Kansas (who isn't even actually good at football) that would fit as a viable expansion target for any of the other power leagues. More importantly, the reasons why they don't fit as expansion targets for those other power leagues are all for inherent core institutional reasons (which are almost impossible to change) as opposed to athletic prowess.

The old Big East, in contrast, had a LOT of individual schools that fit into the institutional goals of other leagues, which is why they were completely picked apart.

While it's not necessarily good for the *individual* members of the Big 12 that they don't really have great realignment prospects elsewhere, that's a good thing for the Big 12 conference *collectively* because this should actually still be a very good or even excellent on-the-field/court sports league that will be kept together for the foreseeable future. Once again, the reason why the other power leagues aren't poaching any current Big 12 members has absolutely nothing to do with how they're performing in football, but rather core institutional issues (such as the academic standards in the Big Ten and Pac-12) that likely aren't ever changing.

There's no reason for the Big 12 as it currently stands to fall apart as conference itself in the long-term. It's really more of a matter of whether the Big 12 itself will continue to part of a P5 or be shut out of that group altogether to leave a P4. I tend to believe that the Big 12 will stay in that P5 group (as long as there's not a more total Armageddon-type legal breakaway) because of the dynamics of controlling the CFP: the P5 plus ND simply gives that group complete control in a way that the P4 plus ND doesn't and it's easier for the Big Ten, SEC, Pac-12, ACC and ND to just negotiate solely with the Big 12 to get what they want for the CFP than it is to try to work with any of the other G5 conferences. The other power conferences shutting out the Big 12 would be a classic "pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered" scenario where an attempt to grab more power could backfire by turning the Big 12 into a swing vote that would block what those power conferences want to do.

I still think everyone is looking at this on a "Big 12 team get poached" as the first domino basis rather than a secondary one.

Similar to how the Big 12 didn't see a reason to randomly add an AAC team, their tune changed once they lost two teams. Same with AAC adding from CUSA. Neither of those raids were thought up out of the blue.

If any other conference above the Big 12 loses teams, they will be the first conference that is explored for necessary backfill, and will have the most teams ready to roll out. Like the Big East, if the Big 12 gets too watered down, they'll lose autonomy status.
(This post was last modified: 06-15-2022 10:08 AM by CoastalJuan.)
06-15-2022 10:07 AM
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Post: #24
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-14-2022 04:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  For years we’ve talked about a P4 but I’ve concluded that there will never be a P4.

For there to be a P4, the others would have to gobble up the majority of one of the weaker leagues. If this was going to happen, the prime time for that to happen was after the Texas/Oklahoma SEC announcement yet the others passed on the remaining 8.

Kansas is probably the only Big 12 school left that holds any interest to the Big 10 or SEC. While the PAC 12 has talked about a CTZ foothold the institutional and cultural differences proved to be a bridge too far and I’m guessing the money isn’t there.

The ACC Is locked into that meddlesome GOR so they aren’t a good candidate to be dissolved. While it’s feasible that it’s members could be dispersed across the Big 10, SEC, and Big 12 the power structure would be more akin to a Power 2 (SEC, Big 10) and then 2 leagues (PAC 12 and Big 12) who are a significant step down.

Dissolving the Pac 12 has geography working against us. Even if there was a scenario where the Big 10 cherry picked the PAC 12 and what was left merged into the Big 12 this would undoubtedly spur the SEC to raid the ACC in response and again, the end result is a Power 2 and then 2 lesser leagues.

The power dynamics just don’t lend themselves to a P4.

I think it is more likely that we will see a P7 with the AAC and MWC forming a separate division, then a P4 or "Premier League".
06-15-2022 10:18 AM
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Post: #25
RE: P4 will never happen
Eh, from a practical standpoint it's already happened.
06-15-2022 10:19 AM
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PeteTheChop Offline
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Post: #26
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-15-2022 09:54 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  Since a balanced P4 no longer makes sense, the new questions are:

Is a more hierarchical structure (e.g., P2 + M3 + G5) stable? Or will the new top conferences continue to grow in members?

Will 50 - 70 programs still be able to effectively compete at the highest level?

Intriguing questions for sure

Do your Cavaliers stick it out in the ACC, taking a massive financial hit each and every year in exchange for the comfort and tradition of their familiar surroundings?

Or does UVA make a move for the more prestigious B1G (or, unlikely perhaps, the S-E-C), where ultimately the money and exposure will be far better?
(This post was last modified: 06-15-2022 10:27 AM by PeteTheChop.)
06-15-2022 10:26 AM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #27
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-14-2022 04:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  For years we’ve talked about a P4 but I’ve concluded that there will never be a P4.

For there to be a P4, the others would have to gobble up the majority of one of the weaker leagues. If this was going to happen, the prime time for that to happen was after the Texas/Oklahoma SEC announcement yet the others passed on the remaining 8.

Kansas is probably the only Big 12 school left that holds any interest to the Big 10 or SEC. While the PAC 12 has talked about a CTZ foothold the institutional and cultural differences proved to be a bridge too far and I’m guessing the money isn’t there.

The ACC Is locked into that meddlesome GOR so they aren’t a good candidate to be dissolved. While it’s feasible that it’s members could be dispersed across the Big 10, SEC, and Big 12 the power structure would be more akin to a Power 2 (SEC, Big 10) and then 2 leagues (PAC 12 and Big 12) who are a significant step down.

Dissolving the Pac 12 has geography working against us. Even if there was a scenario where the Big 10 cherry picked the PAC 12 and what was left merged into the Big 12 this would undoubtedly spur the SEC to raid the ACC in response and again, the end result is a Power 2 and then 2 lesser leagues.

The power dynamics just don’t lend themselves to a P4.

I disagree.

We could see a P4 by 2025 when the Big 12's GOR is up.

1)The SEC is complete. They don't need anything else, plus it's going to take that league a very long time to digest Texas and Oklahoma.
2)The B1G could expand by adding Kansas (or not) and be perfectly happy until the ACC's GOR expires in 2036.
3)The ACC needs to engage the NE and unfortunately/fortunately the path to get there is through West Virginia. The ACC needs to add West Virginia as the conference's resident "bad guy". It would actually be good for the league and for West Virginia too. It's possible the ACC could also look to add Cincinnati (Ohio is a big market).
4) The PAC's options for expansion are very limited and very specific to their network structure Option A-add BYU and Kansas. Since the PAC schools are paired for network broadcast purposes moving BYU in with Utah is a no brainer. Colorado could separate from Utah and hook up with Kansas. The PAC needs a spark to get their hoops jump started. Option B-add BYU and San Diego State. Southern California is a huge market and USC and UCLA are both pretty snooty. Engaging the population with a different approach may help to energize the entire region. The network pairings may be tricky, but culturally SDS is a better "fit" for the PAC than Kansas.

The Big 12 will lose it's P status as soon as Texas and Oklahoma leave and even if the conference stayed intact, it would at best be regarded a G level.
06-15-2022 10:43 AM
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ColKurtz Online
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Post: #28
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-15-2022 10:26 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  
(06-15-2022 09:54 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  Since a balanced P4 no longer makes sense, the new questions are:

Is a more hierarchical structure (e.g., P2 + M3 + G5) stable? Or will the new top conferences continue to grow in members?

Will 50 - 70 programs still be able to effectively compete at the highest level?

Intriguing questions for sure

Do your Cavaliers stick it out in the ACC, taking a massive financial hit each and every year in exchange for the comfort and tradition of their familiar surroundings?

Or does UVA make a move for the more prestigious B1G (or, unlikely perhaps, the S-E-C), where ultimately the money and exposure will be far better?

UVA, along with everyone else located outside of South Bend, is stuck sticking it out in the ACC. With SEC/B1G payouts expected to be $80-100M shortly, even Clemson and FSU are likely priced out. The networks aren't going to pay an *additional* 2 billion dollars over 10 years just for those 2 schools, as valuable as their brands are. People act like there's free pro-rata money for the taking if they can just can an invite. Outside of ND, UT and OU were the last schools that could move the needle in a big way.
06-15-2022 10:53 AM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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Post: #29
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-15-2022 10:19 AM)forphase1 Wrote:  Eh, from a practical standpoint it's already happened.

Everyone is going to have their own definition of "power". To some it's the nebulous blue blood, land grant, blah blah that technically still makes the PAC a power conference. Some just look at the tv revenue. Some look at autonomy.

To me the main indicator is whether you can still put a team in the playoff. Basketball is an afterthought. I know the AAC has done it without being a "power", but that's not going to be the norm. If teams winning the Big 12 with a good record and good OOC SOS start getting snubbed, there is your answer.
06-15-2022 10:55 AM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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Post: #30
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-15-2022 09:54 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  Before UT and OU announced that they were moving to the SEC, I thought that a P4 would be the most stable structure for high-level collegiate athletics. If there could be 4 relatively comparable conferences…in terms of revenue, branding and on-field success…, then the 50 - 70 college programs that invest the most on athletics could compete without the constant realignment upheaval. The SEC and B1G were going to be the two most valuable conferences, but their competitors (two out of ACC, B12 or PAC) would be relatively close. A stable P4 would best enable growth and prosperity for the elite college programs.

College athletics has had 50 to 70 programs that compete at the highest level for at least the past half century. These 50 - 70 programs could grow and operate profitably, while allowing any other program that heavily subsidized their athletics to also participate.

Since a balanced P4 no longer makes sense, the new questions are:

Is a more hierarchical structure (e.g., P2 + M3 + G5) stable? Or will the new top conferences continue to grow in members?

Will 50 - 70 programs still be able to effectively compete at the highest level?

To your point, I think any hypothetical P4 setup prior to last year was predicated on (a) Texas and Oklahoma going to *separate* conferences and/or (b) Texas and Oklahoma bringing along multiple other Big 12 schools along with them (particularly Texas Tech and Oklahoma State).

When both Texas and Oklahoma went to the SEC *together* AND *alone*, that totally upended all of those P4 Armageddon scenarios. One single conference (the SEC) was able to get the two biggest brands (Texas and Oklahoma) without having to take any "fat" at all (unlike the proposed Pac-16 from 2010). It made the paths for schools like Texas Tech and Oklahoma State to move to another conference very unlikely - their fortunes were tied to being able to go with UT and OU to new leagues. The other Big 12 schools other than maybe Kansas have no realistic options for other power leagues, either.

The thing is that the Big 12 is really too strong of a conference as a collective to be outright downgraded - they are competitive on-the-field with the other power conferences and very clearly way ahead of the G5 conferences. The Big 12 is sort of like this year's Celtics team: no superstar but very deep at a high-level which makes them extremely competitive as a collective team. The other power conferences have one or more Steph Curry/LeBron/Durant-level superstars, which will likely be why the Pac-12 will zoom ahead of the Big 12 in TV rights fees with their respective new contracts.
06-15-2022 10:57 AM
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Post: #31
RE: P4 will never happen
I agree, P4 won't happen but it wouldn't surprise me to see a Super 2 (S2 being B1G and SEC) in the next couple of decades.
06-15-2022 11:29 AM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #32
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-15-2022 10:26 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  
(06-15-2022 09:54 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  Since a balanced P4 no longer makes sense, the new questions are:

Is a more hierarchical structure (e.g., P2 + M3 + G5) stable? Or will the new top conferences continue to grow in members?

Will 50 - 70 programs still be able to effectively compete at the highest level?

Intriguing questions for sure

Do your Cavaliers stick it out in the ACC, taking a massive financial hit each and every year in exchange for the comfort and tradition of their familiar surroundings?

Or does UVA make a move for the more prestigious B1G (or, unlikely perhaps, the S-E-C), where ultimately the money and exposure will be far better?

More Prestigious? Surely you jest.
06-15-2022 11:31 AM
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UCbball21 Offline
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Post: #33
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-15-2022 10:43 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(06-14-2022 04:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  For years we’ve talked about a P4 but I’ve concluded that there will never be a P4.

For there to be a P4, the others would have to gobble up the majority of one of the weaker leagues. If this was going to happen, the prime time for that to happen was after the Texas/Oklahoma SEC announcement yet the others passed on the remaining 8.

Kansas is probably the only Big 12 school left that holds any interest to the Big 10 or SEC. While the PAC 12 has talked about a CTZ foothold the institutional and cultural differences proved to be a bridge too far and I’m guessing the money isn’t there.

The ACC Is locked into that meddlesome GOR so they aren’t a good candidate to be dissolved. While it’s feasible that it’s members could be dispersed across the Big 10, SEC, and Big 12 the power structure would be more akin to a Power 2 (SEC, Big 10) and then 2 leagues (PAC 12 and Big 12) who are a significant step down.

Dissolving the Pac 12 has geography working against us. Even if there was a scenario where the Big 10 cherry picked the PAC 12 and what was left merged into the Big 12 this would undoubtedly spur the SEC to raid the ACC in response and again, the end result is a Power 2 and then 2 lesser leagues.

The power dynamics just don’t lend themselves to a P4.

I disagree.

We could see a P4 by 2025 when the Big 12's GOR is up.

1)The SEC is complete. They don't need anything else, plus it's going to take that league a very long time to digest Texas and Oklahoma.
2)The B1G could expand by adding Kansas (or not) and be perfectly happy until the ACC's GOR expires in 2036.
3)The ACC needs to engage the NE and unfortunately/fortunately the path to get there is through West Virginia. The ACC needs to add West Virginia as the conference's resident "bad guy". It would actually be good for the league and for West Virginia too. It's possible the ACC could also look to add Cincinnati (Ohio is a big market).
4) The PAC's options for expansion are very limited and very specific to their network structure Option A-add BYU and Kansas. Since the PAC schools are paired for network broadcast purposes moving BYU in with Utah is a no brainer. Colorado could separate from Utah and hook up with Kansas. The PAC needs a spark to get their hoops jump started. Option B-add BYU and San Diego State. Southern California is a huge market and USC and UCLA are both pretty snooty. Engaging the population with a different approach may help to energize the entire region. The network pairings may be tricky, but culturally SDS is a better "fit" for the PAC than Kansas.

The Big 12 will lose it's P status as soon as Texas and Oklahoma leave and even if the conference stayed intact, it would at best be regarded a G level.

The Big 12 is in an interesting spot because none of the remaining/incoming schools add enough value to entice the other leagues to expand.

I think it's a lot more likely that the PAC-12 and ACC get raided by the B1G and SEC before the Big 12 gets raided again. If that happens, all bets are off because it would be hyper-dependent on how many/what schools are taken.

The Big 12 will continue to backfill if additional schools leave as well. Memphis, SMU, Boise State, and Colorado State are all on speed dial.
06-15-2022 11:41 AM
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Post: #34
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-15-2022 10:26 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  
(06-15-2022 09:54 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  Since a balanced P4 no longer makes sense, the new questions are:

Is a more hierarchical structure (e.g., P2 + M3 + G5) stable? Or will the new top conferences continue to grow in members?

Will 50 - 70 programs still be able to effectively compete at the highest level?

Intriguing questions for sure

Do your Cavaliers stick it out in the ACC, taking a massive financial hit each and every year in exchange for the comfort and tradition of their familiar surroundings?

Or does UVA make a move for the more prestigious B1G (or, unlikely perhaps, the S-E-C), where ultimately the money and exposure will be far better?

All 15 schools signed the GOR. The 15 members are committed to the ACC through at least 2036 (with the caveat that ND’s commitment is only for 5, rather than 8, football games per year). FWIW - I still don’t believe that UT and OU will enter the SEC before July 1, 2025.

It’s way too early to determine what UVa should be doing relative to a realignment decision that can’t be executed in the next 14 years. UVa needs to focus on winning more games, continue building the brand, and help the conference grow more revenue.
06-15-2022 11:49 AM
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Post: #35
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-15-2022 10:43 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(06-14-2022 04:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  For years we’ve talked about a P4 but I’ve concluded that there will never be a P4.

For there to be a P4, the others would have to gobble up the majority of one of the weaker leagues. If this was going to happen, the prime time for that to happen was after the Texas/Oklahoma SEC announcement yet the others passed on the remaining 8.

Kansas is probably the only Big 12 school left that holds any interest to the Big 10 or SEC. While the PAC 12 has talked about a CTZ foothold the institutional and cultural differences proved to be a bridge too far and I’m guessing the money isn’t there.

The ACC Is locked into that meddlesome GOR so they aren’t a good candidate to be dissolved. While it’s feasible that it’s members could be dispersed across the Big 10, SEC, and Big 12 the power structure would be more akin to a Power 2 (SEC, Big 10) and then 2 leagues (PAC 12 and Big 12) who are a significant step down.

Dissolving the Pac 12 has geography working against us. Even if there was a scenario where the Big 10 cherry picked the PAC 12 and what was left merged into the Big 12 this would undoubtedly spur the SEC to raid the ACC in response and again, the end result is a Power 2 and then 2 lesser leagues.

The power dynamics just don’t lend themselves to a P4.

I disagree.

We could see a P4 by 2025 when the Big 12's GOR is up.

1)The SEC is complete. They don't need anything else, plus it's going to take that league a very long time to digest Texas and Oklahoma.
2)The B1G could expand by adding Kansas (or not) and be perfectly happy until the ACC's GOR expires in 2036.
3)The ACC needs to engage the NE and unfortunately/fortunately the path to get there is through West Virginia. The ACC needs to add West Virginia as the conference's resident "bad guy". It would actually be good for the league and for West Virginia too. It's possible the ACC could also look to add Cincinnati (Ohio is a big market).
4) The PAC's options for expansion are very limited and very specific to their network structure Option A-add BYU and Kansas. Since the PAC schools are paired for network broadcast purposes moving BYU in with Utah is a no brainer. Colorado could separate from Utah and hook up with Kansas. The PAC needs a spark to get their hoops jump started. Option B-add BYU and San Diego State. Southern California is a huge market and USC and UCLA are both pretty snooty. Engaging the population with a different approach may help to energize the entire region. The network pairings may be tricky, but culturally SDS is a better "fit" for the PAC than Kansas.

The Big 12 will lose it's P status as soon as Texas and Oklahoma leave and even if the conference stayed intact, it would at best be regarded a G level.

Yawn, the expansion for expansion's sake posts get old.

1. Kansas offers no value to the B1G. The B1G needs valuable football properties in demographically growing markets. That is the ACC schools. Kansas would simply make the B1G weaker in football while adding nothing meaningful to the conference demographically.

2. The ACC is not going to add West Virginia. WVU would not increase their TV contract. If WVU had that value, then the Big 12 would still have a big brand anchor. But clearly WVU isn't, so they don't do anything for the ACC.

2a. Locking down the Northeast where football is on the decline is nonsense. Not that WVU has anything to do with locking down the major populated areas of the NE in the first place. The ACC already has Pitt, Syracuse, and BC in the more populated areas.

3. BYU will never, ever be let into the PAC-12. That the PAC-12 was exploring Texas schools and not BYU last summer should make that extremely clear.

3a. The PAC-12 is the weakest of the P5s. There are no geographically reasonable additions that boost their TV deal. San Diego State would only dilute their TV deal because the other California schools carry the entire state. College sports - especially football - are dying on the West Coast. The PAC-12 is in a long-term decline that cannot be arrested.
06-15-2022 11:53 AM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #36
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-15-2022 11:41 AM)UCbball21 Wrote:  
(06-15-2022 10:43 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(06-14-2022 04:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  For years we’ve talked about a P4 but I’ve concluded that there will never be a P4.

For there to be a P4, the others would have to gobble up the majority of one of the weaker leagues. If this was going to happen, the prime time for that to happen was after the Texas/Oklahoma SEC announcement yet the others passed on the remaining 8.

Kansas is probably the only Big 12 school left that holds any interest to the Big 10 or SEC. While the PAC 12 has talked about a CTZ foothold the institutional and cultural differences proved to be a bridge too far and I’m guessing the money isn’t there.

The ACC Is locked into that meddlesome GOR so they aren’t a good candidate to be dissolved. While it’s feasible that it’s members could be dispersed across the Big 10, SEC, and Big 12 the power structure would be more akin to a Power 2 (SEC, Big 10) and then 2 leagues (PAC 12 and Big 12) who are a significant step down.

Dissolving the Pac 12 has geography working against us. Even if there was a scenario where the Big 10 cherry picked the PAC 12 and what was left merged into the Big 12 this would undoubtedly spur the SEC to raid the ACC in response and again, the end result is a Power 2 and then 2 lesser leagues.

The power dynamics just don’t lend themselves to a P4.

I disagree.

We could see a P4 by 2025 when the Big 12's GOR is up.

1)The SEC is complete. They don't need anything else, plus it's going to take that league a very long time to digest Texas and Oklahoma.
2)The B1G could expand by adding Kansas (or not) and be perfectly happy until the ACC's GOR expires in 2036.
3)The ACC needs to engage the NE and unfortunately/fortunately the path to get there is through West Virginia. The ACC needs to add West Virginia as the conference's resident "bad guy". It would actually be good for the league and for West Virginia too. It's possible the ACC could also look to add Cincinnati (Ohio is a big market).
4) The PAC's options for expansion are very limited and very specific to their network structure Option A-add BYU and Kansas. Since the PAC schools are paired for network broadcast purposes moving BYU in with Utah is a no brainer. Colorado could separate from Utah and hook up with Kansas. The PAC needs a spark to get their hoops jump started. Option B-add BYU and San Diego State. Southern California is a huge market and USC and UCLA are both pretty snooty. Engaging the population with a different approach may help to energize the entire region. The network pairings may be tricky, but culturally SDS is a better "fit" for the PAC than Kansas.

The Big 12 will lose it's P status as soon as Texas and Oklahoma leave and even if the conference stayed intact, it would at best be regarded a G level.

The Big 12 is in an interesting spot because none of the remaining/incoming schools add enough value to entice the other leagues to expand.

I think it's a lot more likely that the PAC-12 and ACC get raided by the B1G and SEC before the Big 12 gets raided again. If that happens, all bets are off because it would be hyper-dependent on how many/what schools are taken.

The Big 12 will continue to backfill if additional schools leave as well. Memphis, SMU, Boise State, and Colorado State are all on speed dial.

Some conference or network would have to invest a lot of financial resources to invalidate the ACC's GOR before that conference could be raided. Even then it could be a very lengthy process taking years before any decision is rendered.
It's unlikely the conference would vote to disband unless every single school could improve their situation in another conference.
06-15-2022 11:55 AM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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Post: #37
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-15-2022 10:43 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(06-14-2022 04:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  For years we’ve talked about a P4 but I’ve concluded that there will never be a P4.

For there to be a P4, the others would have to gobble up the majority of one of the weaker leagues. If this was going to happen, the prime time for that to happen was after the Texas/Oklahoma SEC announcement yet the others passed on the remaining 8.

Kansas is probably the only Big 12 school left that holds any interest to the Big 10 or SEC. While the PAC 12 has talked about a CTZ foothold the institutional and cultural differences proved to be a bridge too far and I’m guessing the money isn’t there.

The ACC Is locked into that meddlesome GOR so they aren’t a good candidate to be dissolved. While it’s feasible that it’s members could be dispersed across the Big 10, SEC, and Big 12 the power structure would be more akin to a Power 2 (SEC, Big 10) and then 2 leagues (PAC 12 and Big 12) who are a significant step down.

Dissolving the Pac 12 has geography working against us. Even if there was a scenario where the Big 10 cherry picked the PAC 12 and what was left merged into the Big 12 this would undoubtedly spur the SEC to raid the ACC in response and again, the end result is a Power 2 and then 2 lesser leagues.

The power dynamics just don’t lend themselves to a P4.

I disagree.

We could see a P4 by 2025 when the Big 12's GOR is up.

1)The SEC is complete. They don't need anything else, plus it's going to take that league a very long time to digest Texas and Oklahoma.
2)The B1G could expand by adding Kansas (or not) and be perfectly happy until the ACC's GOR expires in 2036.
3)The ACC needs to engage the NE and unfortunately/fortunately the path to get there is through West Virginia. The ACC needs to add West Virginia as the conference's resident "bad guy". It would actually be good for the league and for West Virginia too. It's possible the ACC could also look to add Cincinnati (Ohio is a big market).
4) The PAC's options for expansion are very limited and very specific to their network structure Option A-add BYU and Kansas. Since the PAC schools are paired for network broadcast purposes moving BYU in with Utah is a no brainer. Colorado could separate from Utah and hook up with Kansas. The PAC needs a spark to get their hoops jump started. Option B-add BYU and San Diego State. Southern California is a huge market and USC and UCLA are both pretty snooty. Engaging the population with a different approach may help to energize the entire region. The network pairings may be tricky, but culturally SDS is a better "fit" for the PAC than Kansas.

The Big 12 will lose it's P status as soon as Texas and Oklahoma leave and even if the conference stayed intact, it would at best be regarded a G level.

The problem is that two of the constant themes of conference realignment over the past 20 years is (1) the ACC wants nothing to do with WVU and (2) the Pac-12 absolutely 1000% wouldn’t touch BYU with a 1000-foot pole. It wouldn’t matter if BYU wins 5 national championships in a row - the schools that matter in the Pac-12 (USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford and Washington in particular) see BYU as a non-starter.

Like I’ve said, this is very different than how the old Big East was raided. The current Big 12 members aren’t getting into other power conferences there are legitimate core institutional issues and differences that wouldn’t change no matter how these schools perform competitively. In contrast, the Big East had lots of institutional fits for the ACC in particular plus the Big Ten.
06-15-2022 11:56 AM
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UCbball21 Offline
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Post: #38
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-15-2022 11:55 AM)XLance Wrote:  Some conference or network would have to invest a lot of financial resources to invalidate the ACC's GOR before that conference could be raided. Even then it could be a very lengthy process taking years before any decision is rendered.
It's unlikely the conference would vote to disband unless every single school could improve their situation in another conference.

I agree, but conference expansion is a game of decades not years.

The GOR is a powerful tool to hold conferences together as the Big 12 has shown with UT/OU. With that said, as 2036 draws closer the GOR gets less powerful. How do you think FSU, Miami, and Clemson will feel after a decade of making half as much as their SEC counterparts?

I'll give you one thing though, the ACC is safer than the PAC-12 right now.
06-15-2022 12:04 PM
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random asian guy Offline
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Post: #39
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-15-2022 10:43 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(06-14-2022 04:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  For years we’ve talked about a P4 but I’ve concluded that there will never be a P4.

For there to be a P4, the others would have to gobble up the majority of one of the weaker leagues. If this was going to happen, the prime time for that to happen was after the Texas/Oklahoma SEC announcement yet the others passed on the remaining 8.

Kansas is probably the only Big 12 school left that holds any interest to the Big 10 or SEC. While the PAC 12 has talked about a CTZ foothold the institutional and cultural differences proved to be a bridge too far and I’m guessing the money isn’t there.

The ACC Is locked into that meddlesome GOR so they aren’t a good candidate to be dissolved. While it’s feasible that it’s members could be dispersed across the Big 10, SEC, and Big 12 the power structure would be more akin to a Power 2 (SEC, Big 10) and then 2 leagues (PAC 12 and Big 12) who are a significant step down.

Dissolving the Pac 12 has geography working against us. Even if there was a scenario where the Big 10 cherry picked the PAC 12 and what was left merged into the Big 12 this would undoubtedly spur the SEC to raid the ACC in response and again, the end result is a Power 2 and then 2 lesser leagues.

The power dynamics just don’t lend themselves to a P4.

I disagree.

We could see a P4 by 2025 when the Big 12's GOR is up.

1)The SEC is complete. They don't need anything else, plus it's going to take that league a very long time to digest Texas and Oklahoma.
2)The B1G could expand by adding Kansas (or not) and be perfectly happy until the ACC's GOR expires in 2036.
3)The ACC needs to engage the NE and unfortunately/fortunately the path to get there is through West Virginia. The ACC needs to add West Virginia as the conference's resident "bad guy". It would actually be good for the league and for West Virginia too. It's possible the ACC could also look to add Cincinnati (Ohio is a big market).
4) The PAC's options for expansion are very limited and very specific to their network structure Option A-add BYU and Kansas. Since the PAC schools are paired for network broadcast purposes moving BYU in with Utah is a no brainer. Colorado could separate from Utah and hook up with Kansas. The PAC needs a spark to get their hoops jump started. Option B-add BYU and San Diego State. Southern California is a huge market and USC and UCLA are both pretty snooty. Engaging the population with a different approach may help to energize the entire region. The network pairings may be tricky, but culturally SDS is a better "fit" for the PAC than Kansas.

The Big 12 will lose it's P status as soon as Texas and Oklahoma leave and even if the conference stayed intact, it would at best be regarded a G level.

Two things:

The ACC should/would take Cincy before WVU is even considered, although both are unlikely unless the ESPN would pay for it.

The Pac will have a chance to consider an expansion one more time before/during the next media negotiation. If they decide to expand, I don’t think BYU would be a target. Texas schools such as TTU or TCU would have better chance. UT and aTm are gone but Texas market is still too good in my opinion.
06-15-2022 12:07 PM
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UCbball21 Offline
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Post: #40
RE: P4 will never happen
(06-15-2022 12:07 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  Two things:

The ACC should/would take Cincy before WVU is even considered, although both are unlikely unless the ESPN would pay for it.

The Pac will have a chance to consider an expansion one more time before/during the next media negotiation. If they decide to expand, I don’t think BYU would be a target. Texas schools such as TTU or TCU would have better chance. UT and aTm are gone but Texas market is still too good in my opinion.

I feel like Cincy and WVU are destined to land in some sort of redux version of the ACC post B1G/SEC raid by the end of this century. Cincy, Louisville, Pittsburgh, WVU, and VTech all together in the same conference just makes too much sense.

TBH, I'm really hoping Cincy can elevate its program to a Clemson-like level and the SEC wants to plant its flag in Ohio but that's just wishful thinking lol
06-15-2022 12:25 PM
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