Most of us are sketching out scenarios where hidden masterminds are carrying out plans.

Always consider the null hypothesis: there is no Plan at work. Scared decision makers are scared, and making risky moves.

Is the Big Ten or Fox or ESPN carrying out a master scheme? Maybe.

Or maybe it's just that the PAC-12 schools are getting a handle on what their TV contract was likely to look like in 5 years. USC sees a situation where they're making half of what NEbraska is from TV, and reaches out to the Big Ten. UCLA is necessary as a travel partner--Big Ten teams aren't flying to LA to play one game and coming home.

USC and UCLA add the LA market, possibly getting BTN on basic cable in southern California--or maybe not, SoCal cable is a tough nut to crack and the Dodgers and Lakers had trouble for years. But adding those two, and you've pretty much added an OTA Prime time game-of-the-week package.

I believe that this is just the opening move. The white whale is Notre Dame. If the Big Ten can induce ND to join, then the BTN is on basic cable from coast to coast.

Panic. Fear is always the primary motivator of change.

Yeah it's possible things remain this way for a while and things die down until ACC GoR. But at this point, how does the model function when the RB value has basically plummeted? What about the rest of the Bowl tie ins for the PAC 12? Everything has been knocked down a rung. We know ESPN doesn't like being reactive. They are going to either lock up ND, or the B1G will continue to apply the pressure. ND has to cave at some point. This bowl/playoff model doesn't work with two super conferences.

(06-30-2022 08:42 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Yeah it's possible things remain this way for a while and things die down until ACC GoR. But at this point, how does the model function when the RB value has basically plummeted? What about the rest of the Bowl tie ins for the PAC 12? Everything has been knocked down a wrung. We know ESPN doesn't like being reactive. They are going to either lock up ND, or the B1G will continue to apply the pressure. ND has to cave at some point. This bowl/playoff model doesn't work with two super conferences.

The entire playoff and postseason structure has been turned upside down with the shift from a P5 to 2 Tier 1 conferences and 3 Tier 2 conferences (if things stabilize and the PAC or XII don't cannibalize the other into lower-FBS).

There's a lot less logic to 6 champs + 6 at-larges, for example. Even though the LA schools only won a single PAC-12 title in the last 10 years, the conference just carries less weight. With UT and OU gone, the Big 12 was already in the position of the 2005-2012 Big East Football Conference was in, a power conference by courtesy rather than by merit. Now the PAC is in a similar situation, and can the power structure really support 2 kinda-sorta power conferences? If the PAC or New Big 12 champ in 2028 is ranked #16, does the strength of that conference really justify handing them a playoff spot?

The bowl system might be less impacted actually, outside of the Rose Bowl. The PAC and ACC already had kind of weak lineups, with the Big Ten and SEC taking the bowls they wanted, the Big 12 securing good bowls mostly in Texas (and Memphis), and then the PAC and ACC and XII combing through what was left, leaving the merest scraps for the G5.

I think the Big Ten still protects the Rose Bowl, but as a Big Ten bowl, not as a Big Ten-PAC matchup.

Maybe the new system is an 8 team playoff, with the Big Ten owning the Rose Bowl semifinal, the SEC owning the other semifinal (bids accepted from JerryWorld, New Orleans, Miami, Atlanta, new Nashville stadium, etc etc)...no that doesn't work never mind, that's a 6 team setup.