https://twitter.com/TJAltimore/status/15...2TF65h7JWg

Cool data. My only question would be whether it's appropriate to use future conference alignments to aggregate the data. You have to think that conference affiliation is at least a partial driver in fanbase size.

For example, Cincinnati might not have the same size fanbase after a few years of actually being in the Big 12. They would likely migrate closer to the average size, even if they remain the smallest.

Same with the AAC grouping. With little exception, the teams that aren't here yet make up the smallest fanbases. Would they still be so small if they were actually in the AAC?

How about a hypothetical. Throw Memphis in the SEC in 3 years. Do they have an SEC-sized fanbase before they join? No. Do they have an SEC-sized fanbase after being in the SEC for a handful of years, probably.

do i agree with this study even a little bit??? no i dont think these numbers are accurate. not even a little bit

sidenote uconn supposedly has 1.2 million "football" fans, almost triple that of all aac, new or old,c and more than 50% of the p5 aswell

but atleast a fun conversation

Purely anecdotal but as someone who has done a lot of traveling I see way more BYU stuff than WVU or TTU. And they I believe will have the largest stadium and best attendance in the new b12 so I don’t see how WVU leads the pack.

(06-14-2022 04:20 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  Cool data. My only question would be whether it's appropriate to use future conference alignments to aggregate the data. You have to think that conference affiliation is at least a partial driver in fanbase size.

For example, Cincinnati might not have the same size fanbase after a few years of actually being in the Big 12. They would likely migrate closer to the average size, even if they remain the smallest.

Same with the AAC grouping. With little exception, the teams that aren't here yet make up the smallest fanbases. Would they still be so small if they were actually in the AAC?

How about a hypothetical. Throw Memphis in the SEC in 3 years. Do they have an SEC-sized fanbase before they join? No. Do they have an SEC-sized fanbase after being in the SEC for a handful of years, probably.

I find it hard to believe that Army has twice the fan base as Navy as we have out drawn them in home field attendance in forever.

I think some of that is attributable to state demographics and number of colleges. E.G. LSU is the only big dog in Louisiana and everyone pulls for them. WVU is the only real game in a small state, therefore they command an extremely high percentage of the fans in their state (and no pro sports), and they don't follow any other teams for the most part. My guess is West Virginia also has very little in-migration of college graduates from other schools. BYU obviously commands the entire Mormon population/fanbase. On the opposite end, take a state like Indiana with IU, Purdue, and ND...the big college fanbase is split into thirds right of the bat. Ohio has OSU as the big dog and 100 years of good football, but also large state schools like UC (with its successes in the last 20 years), and also lots of other schools that split the fandom, e.g. Miami, Toledo, Kent State, BGSU, Ohio U., etc.

Rice might have 6 or 7 football fans left, but those are grandfathered in and probably tethered with a chain so they can't go anywhere else....You'll be "amazed" at our "crowd sizes" after next year...will probably affect the AAC averages a bit...they're counting on your teams to bring them more fans...like Texas and A&M and Arkansas used to...we is moving on up!

Artist: M People
Album: Elegant Slumming
Song: "Moving On Up"
September 13, 1993 Deconstruction Records



(not the song you thought it was gonna be, huh?)

Perhaps the most positive indication in this report is that four of the schools with the greatest growth potential, given their regional market size, are Navy, SMU, Rice, and Temple (see graph).

Surprised to see the data indicating that Temple's fan base is among the largest in the AAC, and larger than that of Cincy and Memphis. Also, that ECU's fan base seems to be only slightly smaller than Memphis's.

(06-14-2022 04:20 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  Cool data. My only question would be whether it's appropriate to use future conference alignments to aggregate the data. You have to think that conference affiliation is at least a partial driver in fanbase size.

For example, Cincinnati might not have the same size fanbase after a few years of actually being in the Big 12. They would likely migrate closer to the average size, even if they remain the smallest.

Same with the AAC grouping. With little exception, the teams that aren't here yet make up the smallest fanbases. Would they still be so small if they were actually in the AAC?

How about a hypothetical. Throw Memphis in the SEC in 3 years. Do they have an SEC-sized fanbase before they join? No. Do they have an SEC-sized fanbase after being in the SEC for a handful of years, probably.

Excellent point.

NOW, APPLY THAT TO THE POTENTIAL GROWTH OF CUSA6 FANBASES IN THE AAC.

With increased exposure on ESPN, their fan bases could double within a few years, and if this happens, the reconfigured AAC could overtake the MWC.

Speaking of the MWC, its fan base would be about the same as the AAC's including Houston, UCF, and Cincinnati.

(06-14-2022 06:02 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  Rice might have 6 or 7 football fans left, but those are grandfathered in and probably tethered with a chain so they can't go anywhere else....You'll be "amazed" at our "crowd sizes" after next year...will probably affect the AAC averages a bit...they're counting on your teams to bring them more fans...like Texas and A&M and Arkansas used to...we is moving on up!

Question: Which AAC teams are likely to generate the highest home attendance numbers for Rice?

Offhand, I would guess that Navy, Memphis, and SMU (their former SWC rival) might top the list, with Tulane being close behind. To some extent, Rice seems to have potential rivalries and special institutional relationships with Tulane and Tulsa.

Beyond that, it may depend on how well the various programs perform.

I would also imagine that UTSA could generate high levels of attendance at Rice, both because they were a top 25 team last year, and because San Antonio is within driving distance, and some UTSA fans would probably drive to Houston to watch them play the Owls there.

.

(06-14-2022 06:38 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(06-14-2022 06:02 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  Rice might have 6 or 7 football fans left, but those are grandfathered in and probably tethered with a chain so they can't go anywhere else....You'll be "amazed" at our "crowd sizes" after next year...will probably affect the AAC averages a bit...they're counting on your teams to bring them more fans...like Texas and A&M and Arkansas used to...we is moving on up!

Question: Which AAC teams are likely to generate the highest home attendance numbers for Rice?

Offhand, I would guess that Navy, Memphis, and SMU (their former SWC rival) might top the list, with Tulane being close behind. To some extent, Rice seems to have potential rivalries and special institutional relationships with Tulane and Tulsa.

Beyond that, it may depend on how well the various programs perform.

I would also imagine that UTSA could generate high levels of attendance at Rice, both because they were a top 25 team last year, and because San Antonio is within driving distance, and some UTSA fans would probably drive to Houston to watch them play the Owls there.

.

Rice has already shared C-USA with everyone but Temple, USF, and Navy. Navy has been a frequent OOC opponent.

You are very right about UTSA. The Roadrunners have a good fan base.

From 40 years of sitting in the stands, I would rank the home draws as follows:

Premium opponents: Navy, UTSA, SMU, Tulane
Good draws: North Texas, Memphis, UAB
East stands will look bad on tv: East Carolina, Tulsa, USF, Temple, Charlotte, FAU

I can appreciate them trying to consolidate data but I do remain skeptical that secondary ticket data from one non major secondary ticket site 4-10 years ago and Facebook likes represents a solid data set from which to draw meaningful conclusions.

For instance, the 2014 NYT study used Cincinnati Bearcats football Facebook page, which didn’t even update news at the time and had barely been in existence. UC used its main athletic page for social media back then, yet it wasn’t included in the study. Hence why UC showed up 3rd in their home county in that study.

(06-14-2022 05:04 PM)vcoog Wrote:  Purely anecdotal but as someone who has done a lot of traveling I see way more BYU stuff than WVU or TTU. And they I believe will have the largest stadium and best attendance in the new b12 so I don’t see how WVU leads the pack.

I think they’ve severely underestimated BYU’s fanbase, because it is massive. A couple years back when BYU came to Knoxville, they sold out of their visiting team ticket allotment, and no one does that with the exception of Bama and if they’re having a good year, UGA. BYU probably brought the most away fans I’ve ever seen to Neyland (with the exception of Bama), and Knoxville ain’t exactly close to Provo, Utah.

I'm gonna repeat what I said on the realignment board. These numbers are over a decade old. This whole study is has ZERO relevance for mid 2022.



I can't help but scratch my head at all these numbers. I also can't help but scratch my head at all of you who jump up and down excited when you see some "study" or data that supports your inherent biases or agendas. In the science world, this study is the most rediclous thing and isn't even worth toilet paper. I'll admit, it looks flashy and then this guy presents it like a well conducted study done by a big-time firm.

In the science world we look at data and have it peer reviewed. You all are not critiquing the methods. You all are taking the conconlusions as absolute.......even when there are HUGE red flags that make NO sense such as the Unconn and Syracuse football numbers.

So, let's delve into the data that went into these studies. Do you all not read the fine print? It's right there in front of you.

Data is collected from fan base surveys from 2011 and 2014 along with a third party ticket vendor vivid seats sales in 2014. Then they factored in population data to adjust it according to the shift in population for the 2020 census.

I mean people......are you serious?

You are using data from MORE THAN A DECADE AGO!

Some of the data used for UCF was from when they were in the CUSA! I would bet a large part of the country didnt even know UCF existed. UCONN was in a BCS conference! Heck, the BCS was still around for these data points. And then VIVID 8 year old vivid seat sales gets put into it?........Like what the hell?

This is just a fancy slide show with a decade old data. Let's not pretend this has ANY bearing on current fan base sizes or possible media deals that come to fruition in 2025 which is almost 15 years later from the data in this so called study.

(06-14-2022 09:50 PM)stxrunner Wrote:  I can appreciate them trying to consolidate data but I do remain skeptical that secondary ticket data from one non major secondary ticket site 4-10 years ago and Facebook likes represents a solid data set from which to draw meaningful conclusions.

For instance, the 2014 NYT study used Cincinnati Bearcats football Facebook page, which didn’t even update news at the time and had barely been in existence. UC used its main athletic page for social media back then, yet it wasn’t included in the study. Hence why UC showed up 3rd in their home county in that study.

Agree that the data seems kind of stupid, but honestly isn't UC third in their home county? Would think they'd be behind Ohio State/Kentucky(that might be reversed, see more Tucky garb than OSU when I travel to Cincy), but ahead of Xavier/Ohio.

(06-14-2022 05:07 PM)USNA 77 Wrote:  

(06-14-2022 04:20 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  Cool data. My only question would be whether it's appropriate to use future conference alignments to aggregate the data. You have to think that conference affiliation is at least a partial driver in fanbase size.

For example, Cincinnati might not have the same size fanbase after a few years of actually being in the Big 12. They would likely migrate closer to the average size, even if they remain the smallest.

Same with the AAC grouping. With little exception, the teams that aren't here yet make up the smallest fanbases. Would they still be so small if they were actually in the AAC?

How about a hypothetical. Throw Memphis in the SEC in 3 years. Do they have an SEC-sized fanbase before they join? No. Do they have an SEC-sized fanbase after being in the SEC for a handful of years, probably.

I find it hard to believe that Army has twice the fan base as Navy as we have out drawn them in home field attendance in forever.

Agreed, I will not say that this data is wrong, but if it does not correlate well with attendance, TV viewership and revenue (which it does not seem to, not it has MW with more fans than AAC by a lot and the viewers/revenue is the reverse) - then it is not terribly useful.

(06-15-2022 07:09 AM)Vonz90 Wrote:  

(06-14-2022 05:07 PM)USNA 77 Wrote:  

(06-14-2022 04:20 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  Cool data. My only question would be whether it's appropriate to use future conference alignments to aggregate the data. You have to think that conference affiliation is at least a partial driver in fanbase size.

For example, Cincinnati might not have the same size fanbase after a few years of actually being in the Big 12. They would likely migrate closer to the average size, even if they remain the smallest.

Same with the AAC grouping. With little exception, the teams that aren't here yet make up the smallest fanbases. Would they still be so small if they were actually in the AAC?

How about a hypothetical. Throw Memphis in the SEC in 3 years. Do they have an SEC-sized fanbase before they join? No. Do they have an SEC-sized fanbase after being in the SEC for a handful of years, probably.

I find it hard to believe that Army has twice the fan base as Navy as we have out drawn them in home field attendance in forever.

Agreed, I will not say that this data is wrong, but if it does not correlate well with attendance, TV viewership and revenue (which it does not seem to, not it has MW with more fans than AAC by a lot and the viewers/revenue is the reverse) - then it is not terribly useful.

Even if the data is accurate, which I question their collection methods......... it is extremely outdated. From over a decade ago. For UCF, they are using numbers from their CUSA days

Even tho Big12 is smallest of P5, They’ll still get a decent tv deal. All 12 will be happy, all things considered.

Then an AAC super conference with a merger with MWC and all 3 military academies being involved in football shall be in order to get the total combined fan bases (tv/internet eyeballs) up to a total level giving tv revenue better per pie slice than AAC and MW on their own.

Add an NY7 for autobid for this mega AAC and watch AAC “total” fan base - and tv eyeballs - rise to Big12 levels. Albeit, they still wouldn’t get Big12 per member tv revenue, but better than AAC and MW alone.

Mega AAC wouldn’t be part of “Autonomous 5”, as they wouldn’t get a vote in A5 proceedings, however, would be NOW considered “P6” with the autobid to their own NYD Bowl…kind of an ‘A5-Hybrid1-G3’ FBS configuration going forward.

(06-15-2022 07:09 AM)Vonz90 Wrote:  

(06-14-2022 05:07 PM)USNA 77 Wrote:  

(06-14-2022 04:20 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  Cool data. My only question would be whether it's appropriate to use future conference alignments to aggregate the data. You have to think that conference affiliation is at least a partial driver in fanbase size.

For example, Cincinnati might not have the same size fanbase after a few years of actually being in the Big 12. They would likely migrate closer to the average size, even if they remain the smallest.

Same with the AAC grouping. With little exception, the teams that aren't here yet make up the smallest fanbases. Would they still be so small if they were actually in the AAC?

How about a hypothetical. Throw Memphis in the SEC in 3 years. Do they have an SEC-sized fanbase before they join? No. Do they have an SEC-sized fanbase after being in the SEC for a handful of years, probably.

I find it hard to believe that Army has twice the fan base as Navy as we have out drawn them in home field attendance in forever.

Agreed, I will not say that this data is wrong, but if it does not correlate well with attendance, TV viewership and revenue (which it does not seem to, not it has MW with more fans than AAC by a lot and the viewers/revenue is the reverse) - then it is not terribly useful.

Good point - SLHNavy fan has put out detailed statistics showing that the AAC's viewership has been quite a bit higher than the MWC's. Even without UC, UCF, & UH's viewership, the AAC viewership probably doesn't drop noticeably below the MWCs, when the CUSA6 are factored in.

Regardless, CUSA6's viewership will no doubt grow when they start to benefit from having their games broadcasted on ESPN.

(06-15-2022 06:54 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(06-14-2022 09:50 PM)stxrunner Wrote:  I can appreciate them trying to consolidate data but I do remain skeptical that secondary ticket data from one non major secondary ticket site 4-10 years ago and Facebook likes represents a solid data set from which to draw meaningful conclusions.

For instance, the 2014 NYT study used Cincinnati Bearcats football Facebook page, which didn’t even update news at the time and had barely been in existence. UC used its main athletic page for social media back then, yet it wasn’t included in the study. Hence why UC showed up 3rd in their home county in that study.

Agree that the data seems kind of stupid, but honestly isn't UC third in their home county? Would think they'd be behind Ohio State/Kentucky(that might be reversed, see more Tucky garb than OSU when I travel to Cincy), but ahead of Xavier/Ohio.

UC is #1 in Hamilton County. This has been proven here locally in Greater Cincinnati many times over. OSU is a close 2nd, and Kentucky is a distant third. Kentucky fans in Greater Cincinnati don't care about college football to be honest. They are mostly UK basketball, follow the Bengals and casually watch CFB.

The other thing I will add is fandom does vary in Greater Cincinnati depending on what part of town you are in. If you are in Northern Kentucky, that is a hotbed for UK. Those people go out of their way to show people on the other side of the river that they are proud Kentuckians and not really living in a suburb of a city in Ohio. If you are to the north of the I-275 beltway there are a ton of OSU fans-- I am talking Middletown, Hamilton, West Chester. If you are within 275 the Red and Black loyalty is much stronger.

You'll find a large number of UK fans at public attractions like King's Island, the Cincinnati, etc. Most of those folks don't live here, they live down south somewhere and are spending the weekend enjoying themselves.