(06-13-2022 05:58 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-13-2022 04:52 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(06-13-2022 03:42 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(06-13-2022 12:13 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(06-04-2022 10:34 AM)XLance Wrote:  
It has become obvious that in order to have the symmetry necessary to have any kind of workable playoff structure (4, 6 12, or 16) all conferences need to adopt the same structure.

Since the NB12 plans to elevate 4 schools and adding Notre Dame on a full time basis takes us beyond 4 x 16, the next logical step would be 4 x 18. Unfortunately 5 conferences can't survive and have any type of logical division to advance the playoffs in an organized fashion.

This may not be perfect, but it should illustrate how conferences could be organized to allow for a rational playoff system so that every school could be involved and therefore profit from the system.

ACC
adds: UCF, West Virginia, Tulane, Houston

B1G
adds: Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Iowa State, Kansas

SEC
adds: USF, Baylor

PAC
adds: San Diego State, BYU, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU

I still like the traditional division approach, but with 18 teams those divisions could be either 2 x 9 or 3 x 6.

IMO, the addition of UT and OU has completely changed the SEC’s viewpoint on conferences. If you have the most valuable brands and a long record of winning the most national championships, seeking “symmetry” is analogous to promoting welfare, redistribution and Socialism. Conference symmetry would help if conferences had relatively comparable brands and opportunities. Symmetry could have worked if: a) UT, OU, TTU and KU had joined the PAC, and b) ND joined the ACC.

Standardizing conference structures to 4x18 is now futile. Unfortunately, all four conferences would be weakened by expanding with the proposed members. The SEC is fully aligned with ND…they don’t value conference champions. The Alliance (B1G, ACC and PAC) still promotes the importance of conference champions, but they’re losing the PR war about CFP expansion.

You do have to wonder if the predatory attitude the SEC has been displaying is fueled by the Post-Skipper leadership at ESPN or from the SEC itself.
Either way it doesn't bode very well for the overall health of collegiate athletics.

SEC is also under relatively new leadership; Sankey hasn't been in charge all that long.

That said, I blame realignment on ESPN and Fox.

It is, has been, and will be, corporate network driven. Anyone who has witnessed a buyout or takeover can see all of the signs of it. Only the most delusional still want to blame conferences and schools.

Prior to 2010 most conference revenue was plus or minus 3 million of each other at the upper echelon. Then came the if you expand your footprint (network word) we will increase your pay. Then came we will pay you more if you add content and inventory (network and business words), and now it is all about ratings for ad leverage and, wait for it, exposure (more network lingo). Verbiage always tells you who is in control. Commissioners talk about schools and their accomplishments and championships, at least until 2010, and now they talk about.....media distributions.

So who is in control? ESPN was quietly involved in expansion in expansion post Penn State because Delany was a not their fan. Who did the SEC go to for a valuation on FSU in '90? ESPN. Markets were the rage then and ESPN knew they could double dip Florida if FSU was in the ACC and that such a move would keep the SEC from getting too strong for them at the time. So how did the ACC know how much the SEC would offer and when they would offer it? Yep, ESPN. Their goal then was domination of the strongest college football markets and that's where we have headed since.

Why FOX? Two media companies can avoid anti-trust suits if they secretly work together. It's amazing how incestuous the two are! But what do the gullible say and do? They tell us who will never go here or there, and they tout academics as if it still matters in a post amateur world, and they blame schools and conferences instead of corporate overlords.

And yet during the CFP we've had a committee who selected on most years not necessarily the 4 best, but the 4 best who could draw a larger market share. Tinfoil hat? Just follow the money!

These threads on if so and so had gone to conference x or y are hilarious. Schools made the most profitable moves. Being pissed about officiating, bad blood, etc, is just fan fiction being jazzed by leadership to fan the flames of rivalry to hype the games when they are played. And yet we have flame wars over this nonsense.

What do I think happened with the 12 team playoff? Who leaked Texas and OU to the SEC? Likely our media partners since it (1) drives interest, (2) creates playoff expansion talk, (3) happens when conference consolidation is triggered so it covers the focus on a. pay differential, b. which two conferences emerge as P+ and which three as P-, c. it happens as NIL emerges with pay for play looming.

If we wind up with a P2 and a solid P- catch all then the playoffs become self contained and FOX and ESPN make a killing. Panic to jump into one of the 2 leaders becomes the norm, fans go along as long as they aren't left out, and with low overhead for the two NETS with schools covering the payouts, they have a mini NFL all to themselves.

It has all been corporate, and the lure was financial disparity which was made an issue in a for pay arms race started by network money.

I guess you could liken the SEC to the Sheriff of Nottingham, while ESPN assumes the character of the dastardly Prince John?

(06-19-2022 08:17 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(06-13-2022 05:58 PM)JRsec Wrote:  If we wind up with a P2 and a solid P- catch all then the playoffs become self contained and FOX and ESPN make a killing. Panic to jump into one of the 2 leaders becomes the norm, fans go along as long as they aren't left out, and with low overhead for the two NETS with schools covering the payouts, they have a mini NFL all to themselves.

It has all been corporate, and the lure was financial disparity which was made an issue in a for pay arms race started by network money.

I guess you could liken the SEC to the Sheriff of Nottingham, while ESPN assumes the character of the dastardly Prince John?

So who is Robin Hood? who is Little John? who is Maid Marion? Most of all, who is King Richard?

(06-21-2022 12:45 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(06-19-2022 08:17 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(06-13-2022 05:58 PM)JRsec Wrote:  If we wind up with a P2 and a solid P- catch all then the playoffs become self contained and FOX and ESPN make a killing. Panic to jump into one of the 2 leaders becomes the norm, fans go along as long as they aren't left out, and with low overhead for the two NETS with schools covering the payouts, they have a mini NFL all to themselves.

It has all been corporate, and the lure was financial disparity which was made an issue in a for pay arms race started by network money.

I guess you could liken the SEC to the Sheriff of Nottingham, while ESPN assumes the character of the dastardly Prince John?

So who is Robin Hood? who is Little John? who is Maid Marion? Most of all, who is King Richard?

You'll just have to buy the program Mark. You know you can't tell the players without a program.

UNC and UVA to the B1G (July 1, 2036)
UConn and WVU to ACC (July 1, 2036)

The Power 4 conferences then make a set of new autonomy rules excluding the Big 12.

SMU to the Big 12 (July 1, 2036)
MWC stays unchanged.

Big 12 and MWC become tweener leagues.

Texas State to the AAC (July 1, 2036)
WKU to the Sun Belt (July 1, 2036)
EKU and Tarleton State to C-USA (July 1, 2036)
MAC stays unchanged.

This results in a Power 4, Tweener 2, and Group of 4.

Power 4: 59 schools (including Notre Dame)
Tweener 2: 24 schools
Group of 4: 52 schools (including UMass and Army)

I don't know if we will get to a true P4 that's symmetrical as the OP is shooting for, but this is what I think could be the most realistic scenario of getting 72 power teams within the P5, but is probably still a stretch.

If the ACC has issues with north vs. south members, but trying to keep the league as a whole together, they could add WVU and Cincy full members and UCONN olympic sports with a scheduling agreement in football (this is assuming ESPN doesn't decrease each team's TV revenue). This can separate the ACC into a defacto 2 conference league to try to satisfy all members at least for Olympic sports while football could go with 5 protected rivalries (now whether this is successful or accelerates teams fleeing to the B1G/SEC would remain to be seen).

The Big 12 down to 10 adds San Diego St., Boise St., USF, and Memphis to get back to 14. This gives BYU and UCF a couple of travel partners/rivals and creates a coast-to-coast conference in what could be the Big 12's attempt to remain a power conference while managing travel. I could see SMU added instead of 1 of the 4 proposed additions.

B1G, PAC-12, and SEC would stay the same as they would appear to be in stable condition (not that there is any doubt for the B1G and SEC) while the ACC and Big 12 try to reach stability.

ACC: 16+2
B1G: 14
Big 12: 14
PAC-12: 12
SEC: 16
P5: 72+2

Okay. A 4x18 utilizing Occam's Razor which in this case means very limited movement from the full member's of the ACC, SEC, Big 10, and likely the PAC 12. However the ACC is impacted, just not by the SEC.

ACC: Adds Baylor, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Houston, Temple, and West Virginia

Boston College, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Temple, West Virginia

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Baylor, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Houston, Miami


Big Ten: Adds Colorado, Syracuse, Pittsburgh and Notre Dame

Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse

Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern


SEC: Adds Kansas and South Florida (a brand hoops program and a second Florida school

Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vanderbilt

Alabama, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, South Florida, Tennessee

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M


PAC 12: Adds Brigham Young, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, San Diego State, T.C.U., Texas Tech

Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, Utah, Washington, Washington State

Arizona, Arizona State, California, California Los Angeles, San Diego State, Southern Cal

Brigham Young, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

I don't believe any of this happens but if it was forced perhaps it would look something like this.

(06-23-2022 04:52 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Okay. A 4x18 utilizing Occam's Razor which in this case means very limited movement from the full member's of the ACC, SEC, Big 10, and likely the PAC 12. However the ACC is impacted, just not by the SEC.

ACC: Adds Baylor, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Houston, Temple, and West Virginia

Boston College, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Temple, West Virginia

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Baylor, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Houston, Miami


Big Ten: Adds Colorado, Syracuse, Pittsburgh and Notre Dame

Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse

Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern


SEC: Adds Kansas and South Florida (a brand hoops program and a second Florida school

Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vanderbilt

Alabama, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, South Florida, Tennessee

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M


PAC 12: Adds Brigham Young, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, San Diego State, T.C.U., Texas Tech

Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, Utah, Washington, Washington State

Arizona, Arizona State, California, California Los Angeles, San Diego State, Southern Cal

Brigham Young, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

I don't believe any of this happens but if it was forced perhaps it would look something like this.

Just for fun JR. Here is a 4 X 15 version. A lot less mouths to feed

B1G adds Missouri

Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri
Northwestern, Illinois, Michigan, Purdue, Indiana
Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland

SEC (doesn't even know Missouri is gone)
Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Texas, LSU
Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Auburn, Kentucky
Tennessee, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, MSU

ACC adds West Virginia
BC, Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia, Louisville
VT, UVa, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech
Miami, FSU, Clemson, NC State, Wake Forest

PAC adds Kansas, TCU and Oklahoma State
Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma State, TCU
ASU, UCLA, Cal, Oregon, WSU
Washington, OSU, Stanford, USC, Arizona

(06-24-2022 04:54 AM)XLance Wrote:  Just for fun JR. Here is a 4 X 15 version. A lot less mouths to feed

B1G adds Missouri

Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri
Northwestern, Illinois, Michigan, Purdue, Indiana
Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland

SEC (doesn't even know Missouri is gone)
Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Texas, LSU
Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Auburn, Kentucky
Tennessee, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, MSU

ACC adds West Virginia
BC, Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia, Louisville
VT, UVa, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech
Miami, FSU, Clemson, NC State, Wake Forest

PAC adds Kansas, TCU and Oklahoma State
Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma State, TCU
ASU, UCLA, Cal, Oregon, WSU
Washington, OSU, Stanford, USC, Arizona

************************************************************************

As long as we're moving schools around without the consent of the conferences or schools, why not just make Notre Dame join the ACC for football? It is, after all, only hypothetical.

But what if the ACC could strike a deal with the Irish that would allow them to qualify for a CCG without playing a full schedule? Consider this.

ND agrees to play Clemson, Florida St, Miami, UNC, Virginia Tech and Syracuse every year, with those games counting as OOC for the ACC teams but a conference game for the Irish. Then, count their annual games against USC and Stanford as conference games for ND. The 14 ACC schools play a 3-5-5 league schedule with three fixed annual rivals. Everybody then has 8 conference games for purposes of determining the CCG participants.

All 8 of those ND games are premium games for ESPN, and with the Irish giving ESPN the same Tier 2 and Tier 3 rights as the rest of the teams in the ACC they get a full share of conference media payments. That should be worth a substantial increase in the ACC's contract with ESPN, and may even be worth negotiating several fewer years on the deal before it comes up for renewal.

That requires Clemson and Florida State to play 10 P5 games a year, but with their three protected rivals and two premier OOC games they aren't likely to complain about their strength of schedule and attractiveness of their home schedule.

With the ACC taken care of, would OK State, Kansas and TCU balk at getting a seat at the P4 table, knowing that the alternative is being left behind like the rest of the B12? My guess is no. So what are the chances that the RB12 could successfully sue for damages? I'll leave that up to the lawyers.

Is that a done deal at 4X15?

(06-24-2022 08:56 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 04:54 AM)XLance Wrote:  Just for fun JR. Here is a 4 X 15 version. A lot less mouths to feed

B1G adds Missouri

Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri
Northwestern, Illinois, Michigan, Purdue, Indiana
Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland

SEC (doesn't even know Missouri is gone)
Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Texas, LSU
Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Auburn, Kentucky
Tennessee, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, MSU

ACC adds West Virginia
BC, Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia, Louisville
VT, UVa, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech
Miami, FSU, Clemson, NC State, Wake Forest

PAC adds Kansas, TCU and Oklahoma State
Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma State, TCU
ASU, UCLA, Cal, Oregon, WSU
Washington, OSU, Stanford, USC, Arizona

************************************************************************

As long as we're moving schools around without the consent of the conferences or schools, why not just make Notre Dame join the ACC for football? It is, after all, only hypothetical.

But what if the ACC could strike a deal with the Irish that would allow them to qualify for a CCG without playing a full schedule? Consider this.

ND agrees to play Clemson, Florida St, Miami, UNC, Virginia Tech and Syracuse every year, with those games counting as OOC for the ACC teams but a conference game for the Irish. Then, count their annual games against USC and Stanford as conference games for ND. The 14 ACC schools play a 3-5-5 leagues schedule with three fixed annual rivals. Everybody then has 8 conference games for purposes of determining the CCG participants.

All 8 of those ND games are premium games for ESPN, and with the Irish giving ESPN the same Tier 2 and Tier 3 rights as the rest of the teams in the ACC they get a full share of conference media payments. That should be worth a substantial increase in the ACC's contract with ESPN, and may even be worth negotiating several fewer years on the deal before it comes up for renewal.

That requires Clemson and Florida State to play 10 P5 games a year, but with their three protected rivals and two premier OOC games they aren't likely to complain about their strength of schedule and attractiveness of their home schedule.

With the ACC taken care of, would OK State, Kansas and TCU balk at getting a seat at the P4 table, knowing that the alternative is being left behind like the rest of the B12? My guess is no. So what are the chances that the RB12 could successfully sue for damages? I'll leave that up to the lawyers.

Is that a done deal at 4X15?

Stanford drops off of Notre Dame's schedule after the 2024 season.
USC is not scheduled beyond 2026.

Other than those minor inconveniences, it's a workable plan without having the extra baggage of 18 teams in a conference.

(06-24-2022 11:08 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 08:56 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 04:54 AM)XLance Wrote:  Just for fun JR. Here is a 4 X 15 version. A lot less mouths to feed

B1G adds Missouri

Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri
Northwestern, Illinois, Michigan, Purdue, Indiana
Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland

SEC (doesn't even know Missouri is gone)
Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Texas, LSU
Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Auburn, Kentucky
Tennessee, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, MSU

ACC adds West Virginia
BC, Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia, Louisville
VT, UVa, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech
Miami, FSU, Clemson, NC State, Wake Forest

PAC adds Kansas, TCU and Oklahoma State
Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma State, TCU
ASU, UCLA, Cal, Oregon, WSU
Washington, OSU, Stanford, USC, Arizona

************************************************************************

As long as we're moving schools around without the consent of the conferences or schools, why not just make Notre Dame join the ACC for football? It is, after all, only hypothetical.

But what if the ACC could strike a deal with the Irish that would allow them to qualify for a CCG without playing a full schedule? Consider this.

ND agrees to play Clemson, Florida St, Miami, UNC, Virginia Tech and Syracuse every year, with those games counting as OOC for the ACC teams but a conference game for the Irish. Then, count their annual games against USC and Stanford as conference games for ND. The 14 ACC schools play a 3-5-5 leagues schedule with three fixed annual rivals. Everybody then has 8 conference games for purposes of determining the CCG participants.

All 8 of those ND games are premium games for ESPN, and with the Irish giving ESPN the same Tier 2 and Tier 3 rights as the rest of the teams in the ACC they get a full share of conference media payments. That should be worth a substantial increase in the ACC's contract with ESPN, and may even be worth negotiating several fewer years on the deal before it comes up for renewal.

That requires Clemson and Florida State to play 10 P5 games a year, but with their three protected rivals and two premier OOC games they aren't likely to complain about their strength of schedule and attractiveness of their home schedule.

With the ACC taken care of, would OK State, Kansas and TCU balk at getting a seat at the P4 table, knowing that the alternative is being left behind like the rest of the B12? My guess is no. So what are the chances that the RB12 could successfully sue for damages? I'll leave that up to the lawyers.

Is that a done deal at 4X15?

Stanford drops off of Notre Dame's schedule after the 2024 season.
USC is not scheduled beyond 2026.

Other than those minor inconveniences, it's a workable plan without having the extra baggage of 18 teams in a conference.

I have no doubt the USC rivalry will continue, and I'm sure the Irish could get Stanford or a suitable alternative any time they want.

This configuration of conferences results in 10 Year MSR (Mean Sagarin Rankings) in the Top 25 as follows:

8 SEC teams
7 PAC
5 B1G
3 ACC
2 B12

Surprised?

Top 10s

4 SEC (Alabama, Oklahoma, Georgia, LSU)
3 B1G (Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan)
2 PAC (Oregon, Oklahoma St)
1 ACC (Clemson)...Notre Dame is #11

(06-24-2022 12:55 PM)ken d Wrote:  This configuration of conferences results in 10 Year MSR (Mean Sagarin Rankings) in the Top 25 as follows:

8 SEC teams
7 PAC
5 B1G
3 ACC
2 B12

Surprised?

Top 10s

4 SEC (Alabama, Oklahoma, Georgia, LSU)
3 B1G (Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan)
2 PAC (Oregon, Oklahoma St)
1 ACC (Clemson)...Notre Dame is #11

ken d: Who did you mean instead of Oklahoma St in the PAC?

(06-24-2022 04:27 PM)EdwordL Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 12:55 PM)ken d Wrote:  This configuration of conferences results in 10 Year MSR (Mean Sagarin Rankings) in the Top 25 as follows:

8 SEC teams
7 PAC
5 B1G
3 ACC
2 B12

Surprised?

Top 10s

4 SEC (Alabama, Oklahoma, Georgia, LSU)
3 B1G (Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan)
2 PAC (Oregon, Oklahoma St)
1 ACC (Clemson)...Notre Dame is #11

ken d: Who did you mean instead of Oklahoma St in the PAC?

See post #67, where XLance proposes moving Kansas, TCU and OK State to the PAC to bring them to 15 members.

(06-24-2022 11:08 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 08:56 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 04:54 AM)XLance Wrote:  Just for fun JR. Here is a 4 X 15 version. A lot less mouths to feed

B1G adds Missouri

Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri
Northwestern, Illinois, Michigan, Purdue, Indiana
Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland

SEC (doesn't even know Missouri is gone)
Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Texas, LSU
Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Auburn, Kentucky
Tennessee, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, MSU

ACC adds West Virginia
BC, Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia, Louisville
VT, UVa, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech
Miami, FSU, Clemson, NC State, Wake Forest

PAC adds Kansas, TCU and Oklahoma State
Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma State, TCU
ASU, UCLA, Cal, Oregon, WSU
Washington, OSU, Stanford, USC, Arizona

************************************************************************

As long as we're moving schools around without the consent of the conferences or schools, why not just make Notre Dame join the ACC for football? It is, after all, only hypothetical.

But what if the ACC could strike a deal with the Irish that would allow them to qualify for a CCG without playing a full schedule? Consider this.

ND agrees to play Clemson, Florida St, Miami, UNC, Virginia Tech and Syracuse every year, with those games counting as OOC for the ACC teams but a conference game for the Irish. Then, count their annual games against USC and Stanford as conference games for ND. The 14 ACC schools play a 3-5-5 leagues schedule with three fixed annual rivals. Everybody then has 8 conference games for purposes of determining the CCG participants.

All 8 of those ND games are premium games for ESPN, and with the Irish giving ESPN the same Tier 2 and Tier 3 rights as the rest of the teams in the ACC they get a full share of conference media payments. That should be worth a substantial increase in the ACC's contract with ESPN, and may even be worth negotiating several fewer years on the deal before it comes up for renewal.

That requires Clemson and Florida State to play 10 P5 games a year, but with their three protected rivals and two premier OOC games they aren't likely to complain about their strength of schedule and attractiveness of their home schedule.

With the ACC taken care of, would OK State, Kansas and TCU balk at getting a seat at the P4 table, knowing that the alternative is being left behind like the rest of the B12? My guess is no. So what are the chances that the RB12 could successfully sue for damages? I'll leave that up to the lawyers.

Is that a done deal at 4X15?

Stanford drops off of Notre Dame's schedule after the 2024 season.
USC is not scheduled beyond 2026.

Other than those minor inconveniences, it's a workable plan without having the extra baggage of 18 teams in a conference.

The Stanford and USC games will continue to be scheduled.

(ND and USC value their series since 1926. Out of all of college football, ND really only cares about USC as a rival. ND wants to end each season in California for recruiting purposes, just as it has for several decades now Hence, Stanford)

The rest of this idea is fantasy. Why all the schemes? Either ND will join a conference in full or it will not. These half way ideas are not something ND is certainly pushing for.

Besides, ND is likely to renew the NBC deal next year. ESPN is not going to get ND home games.

(06-24-2022 10:49 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 11:08 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 08:56 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 04:54 AM)XLance Wrote:  Just for fun JR. Here is a 4 X 15 version. A lot less mouths to feed

B1G adds Missouri

Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri
Northwestern, Illinois, Michigan, Purdue, Indiana
Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland

SEC (doesn't even know Missouri is gone)
Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Texas, LSU
Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Auburn, Kentucky
Tennessee, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, MSU

ACC adds West Virginia
BC, Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia, Louisville
VT, UVa, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech
Miami, FSU, Clemson, NC State, Wake Forest

PAC adds Kansas, TCU and Oklahoma State
Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma State, TCU
ASU, UCLA, Cal, Oregon, WSU
Washington, OSU, Stanford, USC, Arizona

************************************************************************

As long as we're moving schools around without the consent of the conferences or schools, why not just make Notre Dame join the ACC for football? It is, after all, only hypothetical.

But what if the ACC could strike a deal with the Irish that would allow them to qualify for a CCG without playing a full schedule? Consider this.

ND agrees to play Clemson, Florida St, Miami, UNC, Virginia Tech and Syracuse every year, with those games counting as OOC for the ACC teams but a conference game for the Irish. Then, count their annual games against USC and Stanford as conference games for ND. The 14 ACC schools play a 3-5-5 leagues schedule with three fixed annual rivals. Everybody then has 8 conference games for purposes of determining the CCG participants.

All 8 of those ND games are premium games for ESPN, and with the Irish giving ESPN the same Tier 2 and Tier 3 rights as the rest of the teams in the ACC they get a full share of conference media payments. That should be worth a substantial increase in the ACC's contract with ESPN, and may even be worth negotiating several fewer years on the deal before it comes up for renewal.

That requires Clemson and Florida State to play 10 P5 games a year, but with their three protected rivals and two premier OOC games they aren't likely to complain about their strength of schedule and attractiveness of their home schedule.

With the ACC taken care of, would OK State, Kansas and TCU balk at getting a seat at the P4 table, knowing that the alternative is being left behind like the rest of the B12? My guess is no. So what are the chances that the RB12 could successfully sue for damages? I'll leave that up to the lawyers.

Is that a done deal at 4X15?

Stanford drops off of Notre Dame's schedule after the 2024 season.
USC is not scheduled beyond 2026.

Other than those minor inconveniences, it's a workable plan without having the extra baggage of 18 teams in a conference.

The Stanford and USC games will continue to be scheduled.

(ND and USC value their series since 1926. Out of all of college football, ND really only cares about USC as a rival. ND wants to end each season in California for recruiting purposes, just as it has for several decades now Hence, Stanford)

The rest of this idea is fantasy. Why all the schemes? Either ND will join a conference in full or it will not. These half way ideas are not something ND is certainly pushing for.

Besides, ND is likely to renew the NBC deal next year. ESPN is not going to get ND home games.

I'm not surprised by this. My suggestion to achieve an arbitrary P4X15 was the only way I could imagine that might improve the ACC's relative standing within a P4 and improve its media revenue. I don't believe there is anything else the ACC could do that would significantly improve its revenue in the next dozen years.

The only option individual schools have that would improve their own chances for football competitiveness is to find a way to dissolve the ACC so they can afford to leave for either the SEC or B1G. Either that or be satisfied that they are in a second tier football conference below those two but ahead of the G5 and hope they can dominate that conference the way FSU did for 20 years and Clemson did more recently.

(06-25-2022 06:02 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 10:49 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 11:08 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 08:56 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 04:54 AM)XLance Wrote:  Just for fun JR. Here is a 4 X 15 version. A lot less mouths to feed

B1G adds Missouri

Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri
Northwestern, Illinois, Michigan, Purdue, Indiana
Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland

SEC (doesn't even know Missouri is gone)
Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Texas, LSU
Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Auburn, Kentucky
Tennessee, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, MSU

ACC adds West Virginia
BC, Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia, Louisville
VT, UVa, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech
Miami, FSU, Clemson, NC State, Wake Forest

PAC adds Kansas, TCU and Oklahoma State
Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma State, TCU
ASU, UCLA, Cal, Oregon, WSU
Washington, OSU, Stanford, USC, Arizona

************************************************************************

As long as we're moving schools around without the consent of the conferences or schools, why not just make Notre Dame join the ACC for football? It is, after all, only hypothetical.

But what if the ACC could strike a deal with the Irish that would allow them to qualify for a CCG without playing a full schedule? Consider this.

ND agrees to play Clemson, Florida St, Miami, UNC, Virginia Tech and Syracuse every year, with those games counting as OOC for the ACC teams but a conference game for the Irish. Then, count their annual games against USC and Stanford as conference games for ND. The 14 ACC schools play a 3-5-5 leagues schedule with three fixed annual rivals. Everybody then has 8 conference games for purposes of determining the CCG participants.

All 8 of those ND games are premium games for ESPN, and with the Irish giving ESPN the same Tier 2 and Tier 3 rights as the rest of the teams in the ACC they get a full share of conference media payments. That should be worth a substantial increase in the ACC's contract with ESPN, and may even be worth negotiating several fewer years on the deal before it comes up for renewal.

That requires Clemson and Florida State to play 10 P5 games a year, but with their three protected rivals and two premier OOC games they aren't likely to complain about their strength of schedule and attractiveness of their home schedule.

With the ACC taken care of, would OK State, Kansas and TCU balk at getting a seat at the P4 table, knowing that the alternative is being left behind like the rest of the B12? My guess is no. So what are the chances that the RB12 could successfully sue for damages? I'll leave that up to the lawyers.

Is that a done deal at 4X15?

Stanford drops off of Notre Dame's schedule after the 2024 season.
USC is not scheduled beyond 2026.

Other than those minor inconveniences, it's a workable plan without having the extra baggage of 18 teams in a conference.

The Stanford and USC games will continue to be scheduled.

(ND and USC value their series since 1926. Out of all of college football, ND really only cares about USC as a rival. ND wants to end each season in California for recruiting purposes, just as it has for several decades now Hence, Stanford)

The rest of this idea is fantasy. Why all the schemes? Either ND will join a conference in full or it will not. These half way ideas are not something ND is certainly pushing for.

Besides, ND is likely to renew the NBC deal next year. ESPN is not going to get ND home games.

I'm not surprised by this. My suggestion to achieve an arbitrary P4X15 was the only way I could imagine that might improve the ACC's relative standing within a P4 and improve its media revenue. I don't believe there is anything else the ACC could do that would significantly improve its revenue in the next dozen years.

The only option individual schools have that would improve their own chances for football competitiveness is to find a way to dissolve the ACC so they can afford to leave for either the SEC or B1G. Either that or be satisfied that they are in a second tier football conference below those two but ahead of the G5 and hope they can dominate that conference the way FSU did for 20 years and Clemson did more recently.

That has been my opinion and position for a year, since Texas and Oklahoma agreed to join the SEC.

The ACC is doomed to be a second class conference whose members get about $40 million a year less in TV/Conference payouts for the next 14 years.

The chances of ND football joining such a conference seems very slim to me.

It just seems a very bad business decision for ND to do that.

(06-24-2022 10:49 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 11:08 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 08:56 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 04:54 AM)XLance Wrote:  Just for fun JR. Here is a 4 X 15 version. A lot less mouths to feed

B1G adds Missouri

Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri
Northwestern, Illinois, Michigan, Purdue, Indiana
Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland

SEC (doesn't even know Missouri is gone)
Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Texas, LSU
Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Auburn, Kentucky
Tennessee, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, MSU

ACC adds West Virginia
BC, Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia, Louisville
VT, UVa, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech
Miami, FSU, Clemson, NC State, Wake Forest

PAC adds Kansas, TCU and Oklahoma State
Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma State, TCU
ASU, UCLA, Cal, Oregon, WSU
Washington, OSU, Stanford, USC, Arizona

************************************************************************

As long as we're moving schools around without the consent of the conferences or schools, why not just make Notre Dame join the ACC for football? It is, after all, only hypothetical.

But what if the ACC could strike a deal with the Irish that would allow them to qualify for a CCG without playing a full schedule? Consider this.

ND agrees to play Clemson, Florida St, Miami, UNC, Virginia Tech and Syracuse every year, with those games counting as OOC for the ACC teams but a conference game for the Irish. Then, count their annual games against USC and Stanford as conference games for ND. The 14 ACC schools play a 3-5-5 leagues schedule with three fixed annual rivals. Everybody then has 8 conference games for purposes of determining the CCG participants.

All 8 of those ND games are premium games for ESPN, and with the Irish giving ESPN the same Tier 2 and Tier 3 rights as the rest of the teams in the ACC they get a full share of conference media payments. That should be worth a substantial increase in the ACC's contract with ESPN, and may even be worth negotiating several fewer years on the deal before it comes up for renewal.

That requires Clemson and Florida State to play 10 P5 games a year, but with their three protected rivals and two premier OOC games they aren't likely to complain about their strength of schedule and attractiveness of their home schedule.

With the ACC taken care of, would OK State, Kansas and TCU balk at getting a seat at the P4 table, knowing that the alternative is being left behind like the rest of the B12? My guess is no. So what are the chances that the RB12 could successfully sue for damages? I'll leave that up to the lawyers.

Is that a done deal at 4X15?

Stanford drops off of Notre Dame's schedule after the 2024 season.
USC is not scheduled beyond 2026.

Other than those minor inconveniences, it's a workable plan without having the extra baggage of 18 teams in a conference.

The Stanford and USC games will continue to be scheduled.

(ND and USC value their series since 1926. Out of all of college football, ND really only cares about USC as a rival. ND wants to end each season in California for recruiting purposes, just as it has for several decades now Hence, Stanford)

The rest of this idea is fantasy. Why all the schemes? Either ND will join a conference in full or it will not. These half way ideas are not something ND is certainly pushing for.

Besides, ND is likely to renew the NBC deal next year. ESPN is not going to get ND home games.

We'll see.
I hope that Notre Dame can keep their traditional rivals, so many other traditional
rivalries have been lost to realignment.

(06-25-2022 11:44 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 10:49 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 11:08 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 08:56 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 04:54 AM)XLance Wrote:  Just for fun JR. Here is a 4 X 15 version. A lot less mouths to feed

B1G adds Missouri

Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri
Northwestern, Illinois, Michigan, Purdue, Indiana
Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland

SEC (doesn't even know Missouri is gone)
Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Texas, LSU
Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Auburn, Kentucky
Tennessee, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, MSU

ACC adds West Virginia
BC, Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia, Louisville
VT, UVa, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech
Miami, FSU, Clemson, NC State, Wake Forest

PAC adds Kansas, TCU and Oklahoma State
Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma State, TCU
ASU, UCLA, Cal, Oregon, WSU
Washington, OSU, Stanford, USC, Arizona

************************************************************************

As long as we're moving schools around without the consent of the conferences or schools, why not just make Notre Dame join the ACC for football? It is, after all, only hypothetical.

But what if the ACC could strike a deal with the Irish that would allow them to qualify for a CCG without playing a full schedule? Consider this.

ND agrees to play Clemson, Florida St, Miami, UNC, Virginia Tech and Syracuse every year, with those games counting as OOC for the ACC teams but a conference game for the Irish. Then, count their annual games against USC and Stanford as conference games for ND. The 14 ACC schools play a 3-5-5 leagues schedule with three fixed annual rivals. Everybody then has 8 conference games for purposes of determining the CCG participants.

All 8 of those ND games are premium games for ESPN, and with the Irish giving ESPN the same Tier 2 and Tier 3 rights as the rest of the teams in the ACC they get a full share of conference media payments. That should be worth a substantial increase in the ACC's contract with ESPN, and may even be worth negotiating several fewer years on the deal before it comes up for renewal.

That requires Clemson and Florida State to play 10 P5 games a year, but with their three protected rivals and two premier OOC games they aren't likely to complain about their strength of schedule and attractiveness of their home schedule.

With the ACC taken care of, would OK State, Kansas and TCU balk at getting a seat at the P4 table, knowing that the alternative is being left behind like the rest of the B12? My guess is no. So what are the chances that the RB12 could successfully sue for damages? I'll leave that up to the lawyers.

Is that a done deal at 4X15?

Stanford drops off of Notre Dame's schedule after the 2024 season.
USC is not scheduled beyond 2026.

Other than those minor inconveniences, it's a workable plan without having the extra baggage of 18 teams in a conference.

The Stanford and USC games will continue to be scheduled.

(ND and USC value their series since 1926. Out of all of college football, ND really only cares about USC as a rival. ND wants to end each season in California for recruiting purposes, just as it has for several decades now Hence, Stanford)

The rest of this idea is fantasy. Why all the schemes? Either ND will join a conference in full or it will not. These half way ideas are not something ND is certainly pushing for.

Besides, ND is likely to renew the NBC deal next year. ESPN is not going to get ND home games.

We'll see.
I hope that Notre Dame can keep their traditional rivals, so many other traditional
rivalries have been lost to realignment.

Southern Cal is ND's only real rival. The other opponents are fairly fungible.

Navy is a promise or obligation from WW2, not a rival. BC and Pitt are not rivals.

ND dropped Michigan from the schedule for years. ND fans don't seem to miss the Wolverines (or the Boilermakers or the Spartans).

Stanford fits the bill for another West Coast team for recruiting purposes.

But, honestly, Cal or UCLA would do the trick just as well.

(Personally, I much prefer the revolving two year home/home deals that ND has signed with schools like Georgia, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Alabama, Texas A&M, Arkansas, etc... than seeing the same opponents every year.)

(06-25-2022 08:20 AM)TerryD Wrote:  That has been my opinion and position for a year, since Texas and Oklahoma agreed to join the SEC.

The ACC is doomed to be a second class conference whose members get about $40 million a year less in TV/Conference payouts for the next 14 years.

The chances of ND football joining such a conference seems very slim to me.

It just seems a very bad business decision for ND to do that.

And that would seem a fairly obvious point, but one that has not trickled down to those who typically analyze these things.

There's no reason for Notre Dame to join the ACC. In the long run, I doubt that Notre Dame will remain independent because economic and perhaps even structural factors will force them to adjust to a different paradigm. The question to me is when and how exactly that plays out.

Nonetheless, Notre Dame will look for flexibility in whatever happens next. The network partners and/or conferences that provide the best path forward, that will be the one that gets ND to budge.

To the on-topic question, I've thought for a very long time that we won't have a P4. It's too clean and it works too well on a drawing board, but it doesn't serve all the interests of the parties it would affect. I have to put a lot of stock in Swarbrick's statements, however. We're coming to a point where college athletics will revolve around 2 different gravity wells...the SEC and the Big Ten.

(06-25-2022 06:07 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(06-25-2022 08:20 AM)TerryD Wrote:  That has been my opinion and position for a year, since Texas and Oklahoma agreed to join the SEC.

The ACC is doomed to be a second class conference whose members get about $40 million a year less in TV/Conference payouts for the next 14 years.

The chances of ND football joining such a conference seems very slim to me.

It just seems a very bad business decision for ND to do that.

And that would seem a fairly obvious point, but one that has not trickled down to those who typically analyze these things.

There's no reason for Notre Dame to join the ACC. In the long run, I doubt that Notre Dame will remain independent because economic and perhaps even structural factors will force them to adjust to a different paradigm. The question to me is when and how exactly that plays out.

Nonetheless, Notre Dame will look for flexibility in whatever happens next. The network partners and/or conferences that provide the best path forward, that will be the one that gets ND to budge.

To the on-topic question, I've thought for a very long time that we won't have a P4. It's too clean and it works too well on a drawing board, but it doesn't serve all the interests of the parties it would affect. I have to put a lot of stock in Swarbrick's statements, however. We're coming to a point where college athletics will revolve around 2 different gravity wells...the SEC and the Big Ten.

I don't necessarily disagree with this.
I think Bilas was, in typical ESPN fashion, floating a trial balloon when he called for the merger of the SEC and the ACC.
It's easy to envision. The ACC could add West Virginia and Cincinnati to get to 16 to match the SEC number and the that grouping plus a portion of Notre Dame would match anything that the B1G, remnants of the Big 12 and PAC could scrape together.
2 x 32 is even cleaner than a P4 and sets up perfectly to become NFL lite.
Old conference lines would blur and new scheduling would emerge whether it's divisions or pods or the three or 4 permanent rival set ups. Everything would be perfect, right?
In the pro model it is recognized that the wealthy have to support the poor. Big market teams have to share their income with small market teams to create some semblance of balance. You weren't thinking that ESPN or FOX would just automatically want to boost every schools payout to match the highest pay out, did you?
So why not just take what you want and leave the rest? Two things come to mind. If you only add strong schools, eventually the thinking within the group will turn on the weaker. Once greed becomes the motive, it's really hard to hold in check. How long would it be before Vanderbilt and Mississippi State would be asked to leave?
The second thing is that some of the "targets" really do have long standing relationships that they don't want to give up. Take Texas for instance. Why would they move to the SEC? Well there is Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Arkansas. Then there is also the ability to separate from Baylor, Texas Tech and TCU, where Texas is on a plane above those schools and they wouldn't be such stiff competition.
Would Carolina go to the SEC without Duke and UVa? If Duke and UVa chose to go to the B1G would Carolina follow?
The overarching theme of realignment has been "follow the money". OK we are at the point of consolidation, how does the money get distributed?
Which schools are "in" which get left out? How far behind will the second tier be?
How much more will the fans put up with? In the 70's a football ticket cost $5, now the average is $75 plus the dues I have to pay to get "better" seats. Is the product any better? Are we getting our money's worth and where is it coming from?