(05-23-2022 08:38 PM)johnbragg Wrote: What Travis doesn't mention is, Disney would have big problems selling ESPN. Who's buying?
Remember a couple of years ago, when Disney was forced to sell the Fox RSNs by the antitrust regulators? It was expected that the RSNs would fetch maybe $20B. Disney ended up getting just under $10B from Sinclair. And Sinclair has written down their value to half of that, as they try to avoid bankruptcy in a couple of years as subscriber numbers go down, while the rights fees go up.
ESPN would lose tremendous percieved value if word got out that Disney were trying to get rid of ESPN.
It's still a huge money maker. The issue isn't systemic. The issue is demographics. Those born in '46 turn 76 this year. The largest blip of the Baby Boom is between '46 - 52 and while it generally is accepted to extend until '62 the tail end of the Boom was smaller in scope.
These people are avid college sports fans, have had the resources to donate, buy tickets, and attended college in large numbers. To put this in perspective in 2036 those born between '46-56 will be 80 - 90 years of age. Those born after 74-79.
Given Covid, and rising food and fuel costs, and the natural mortality of Boomers, and you can likely account for those 8% of lost subscribers fairly quickly.
Given the personal viewing habits of Millennials and Gen Z, and their decreased numbers and the lessened capital reserves of X'ers and you have a timebomb which will culminate in 2036 which will absolutely impact sports.
The moves you see now are all about milking as much as can be taken from Boomers and Xers and culling quantity for quality and looking at keeping all major brands tied to the regions where the sport is still culturally relevant, the SE, SW, Cali, Ohio, & Pennsylvania.
But nobody at Disney is sweating ESPN and they have 14 years to downsize and divest, and it won't just hit football. It's going to wallop team sports as a rule. Football will likely remain a viewing sport at the college level for another 20 years after 2036, but will draw its supply from the aforementioned areas.
And you do realize that what impacts CFB directly impacts the NFL? These are billion dollar industries which face uncertain futures. It will impact much more than ESPN.
Now all of that said, Clay Travis has exaggerated the scale of just about everything he has ever reported. Remember NC State and Va Tech to the SEC and how the SECN was going to make 70 million or some such ridiculous number? 8% doesn't cause panic at Disney. It's who is in that 8% and the inevitability of their loss and the event horizon of it that will impact them. T - 14 years and counting. Which by the way is the same reason the ACC contract is of imminent concern, not just the gap. The point is the existing contract leaves them no chance to cash in on the 10-12 golden years of team sports revenue.