(05-18-2022 05:22 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 05:02 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  After losing their best 3 schools and possible Memphis to the Big 12? MWC is the real P6 power conference.

The MWC hasn't come remotely close to the AAC since it rebranded in terms of performance, media deal, academics, etc.

(snip)

Regarding performance, the MW was actually the top-performing G5 football conference this past season, a season in which Cincy made the playoffs. But the MW was the better conference. Basketball? Irrelevant, as hoops plays no role in "power" status. The Big East has had way better hoops than the AAC, has finished well ahead of the AAC in the NET, RPI, KenPom etc rankings every single season since the split, but that doesn't make it a "P6" conference, unless we are strictly talking hoops-power.

IIRC, the P6 campaign was launched in spring 2017. In the five football seasons since, the AAC has been the top conference 3 times and the MW 2 times. That's officially. In reality, the SBC was the best football conference in 2020, but the computers were too messed up to show it. So really, something like 2-2-1. And those are five years in which UCF and Cincy had four unbeaten regular seasons among them. That doesn't make the AAC anything like a "P" in football performance when it struggles to be the best "G". The AAC having the best G5 team those years, and getting the Access Bowl each year, has masked that underlying conference-strength reality, but it is reality nonetheless.

Media? The AAC deal is for $7m a year per school, the MW deal is for about $4.4m a year. That's pretty close, IMO, and the AAC deal actually drops to $5.5m once the newbies join the AAC. Closer still, and the MW will get a new deal much sooner than the AAC as well.

Academics? Not relevant, IMO. The Ivy League outdistances everyone in academics but that doesn't make their athletics "power" level.

The P6 campaign was an abject failure when UCF, Cincy and UH were in the fold, as nothing about the AAC ever approached "power" level. It did have one positive impact, IMO - it created a false impression that the AAC was the clear-cut best football league, which has helped the AAC champ get the Access bid. That's something, but not much.

(05-18-2022 07:15 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 06:17 AM)inutech Wrote:  The P6 thing was always a joke.

Kudos for trying, but I don't think people fell for it.

I disagree.

Coming off the Big 12 flirtations of 2016, the Power 6 Campaign was the most genius collegiate marketing campaign we have seen in some time.

The attention it stirred up was critical going into the ESPN negotiations of 18-19.

What made it work was the AAC backed it up with successive NY6 bowls and generated great ratings on ESPN/ABC.

If the performance wasn't there it would've fallen flat.

By and large, I firmly believe the incoming 6 programs will benefit greatly by that campaign - at least indirectly due to the fact that it buoyed the ESPN offer (which presciently went 12 years). That deal has allowed for the AAC to bring in programs that they can nurture over the long term.

The problem is that, by claiming the AAC is "still" a "P6" conference, people like you and Aresco (who should know better) run the unnecessary risk of undermining the efforts of the AAC fans who are trying to make a credible case that the conference has a bright future - - and of making them look like fools.

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(05-18-2022 07:11 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  I have absolutely zero faith in Commissioner Aresco's ability to do anything but negotiate successfully with ESPN, his former employer for broadcasting agreements.

You have to admit though, Aresco's ability to negotiate successfully with ESPN has been huge.

Ultimately, time will tell how these new programs will grow into the conference. They have literally been starved until now. They really had no chance at all with the TV contract they've been sustaining (starving) on.

The P6 Campaign has certainly drawn the ire (i.e. attention) of many, who were always repelled because Houston, UCF, and Cincinnati beat them back.

Will those detractors now have their day with the new AAC? That chapter is to be written.

(05-18-2022 07:20 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  The problem is that, by claiming the AAC is "still" a "P6" conference, people like you and Aresco (who should know better) run the unnecessary risk of undermining the efforts of the AAC fans who are trying to make a credible case that the conference has a bright future - - and of making them look like fools.

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Not at all. The conference is still basking in the CFP money, and there is one more year of the old version of the AAC to recruit to (for everyone... new teams as well).

Aresco has no choice but to promote the conference right now (given the realization of what many believed was an impossible CFP4 run).

Given the resources and the opportunity to promote that success (even by a departing member), it's smart just to wait and see how it goes. Roll the dice.

Whatever happens, it will still be on ESPN and ABC with the same frequency. The new members have a big advantage over what the first group had in 2013 from a TV contract standpoint.

(05-18-2022 07:26 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 07:11 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  I have absolutely zero faith in Commissioner Aresco's ability to do anything but negotiate successfully with ESPN, his former employer for broadcasting agreements.

You have to admit though, Aresco's ability to negotiate successfully with ESPN has been huge.

Really? A deal that averages $7m a year per school, and for 12 long years? And soon to be $5.5m once the noobs join, is "successful" negotiation?

That's nowhere near power level. The ACC, whose fans are almost in revolt over how "bad" their TV deal is, got $333m from TV last year, and that number will likely rise when more ACCN revenues come in, while the AAC is getting $83m and is stuck at that for 10 more long years.

That's impressive only by comparison to G5 piddling like MAC/CUSA/SBC. But "P6" doesn't say anything about the MAC, does it? The comparison metric is the Power leagues, and by that metric it isn't in the same galaxy, IMO.

(05-18-2022 07:26 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  You have to admit though, Aresco's ability to negotiate successfully with ESPN has been huge.

You mean his ability to bend over and take whatever ESPN tells him to do?

(05-18-2022 07:32 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 07:26 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 07:11 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  I have absolutely zero faith in Commissioner Aresco's ability to do anything but negotiate successfully with ESPN, his former employer for broadcasting agreements.

You have to admit though, Aresco's ability to negotiate successfully with ESPN has been huge.

Really? A deal that averages $7m a year per school, and for 12 long years? And soon to be $5.5m once the noobs join, is "successful" negotiation?

That's nowhere near power level. The ACC, whose fans are almost in revolt over how "bad" their TV deal is, got $333m from TV last year, and that number will likely rise when more ACCN revenues come in, while the AAC is getting $83m and is stuck at that for 10 more long years.

That's impressive only by comparison to G5 piddling like MAC/CUSA/SBC. But "P6" doesn't say anything about the MAC, does it? The comparison metric is the Power leagues, and by that metric it isn't in the same galaxy, IMO.

See what I mean, TroyT? This is just the beginning of the derision and scorn that is going to be showering down on you for advocating an ongoing AAC "P6" campaign.

(05-18-2022 07:26 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  You have to admit though, Aresco's ability to negotiate successfully with ESPN has been huge.

Nope - I don't admit that, and after realizing what an incredibly poor negotiator Aresco has been every step along the way, I don't believe it.

Examples - he utterly failed to bring SDSU and Boise State aboard, and he utterly failed to replace UConn. He has utterly failed in his efforts to get a 12-team CFP playoff agreement. I can't think of a single thing he has done besides bringing Wichita State into the American.

We don't know if any of this was Aresco's doing or not. For all we know, Aresco has never been anything but ESPN's agent in any of this.

I don't think Aresco ever had any leverage at all with ESPN. He simply worked for them. He was no more in command of the ship than Mr. Spock was of the U.S.S. Enterprise.

I may be wrong, but it seems to me that the broadcasting deal that the AAC got was essentially the same kind of broadcasting deal that they could have gotten from ESPN all along.

Further, when you think of it, UConn, Cincy, Houston, and UCF have only been and are only going to be paid a pittance by ESPN because of the "balloon payment" arrangements, in which the vast majority of what ESPN pays out will only go to whichever AAC teams remain in the conference for the full 12-years of the deal, and ESPN might be able to renegotiate their way out of that part of the deal if Memphis, SMU, and USF all jump to the Big-12.

Due to the technicalities in the deal that "Aresco" negotiated with ESPN, it's possible that none of the AAC remainers will ever end up being paid the $7 million/year average that they signed up for - - if ESPN continues to RENEGOTIATE the deal downward each time another member leaves the conference.

P6? We don't even know if we'll have a P5 soon. The Big 12 is slightly weaker without Oklahoma, and has an all-time CFP record of 0-4 after 8 seasons. The Pac-12 has only made it in 3 times in 8 years, and their all-time CFP record is 1-2.

That doesn't even get into a potential breakaway at the top, or the huge payout gap between the P2 and the "Middle Class 3" in 10 years. If anything, the "P_" is less than 5, not more.

It sounds like he should pay the 3 to leave and not the other way around. I totally disagree with some here the P6 was nonsense. The AAC clearly was the best of the rest, with the MWC being #2. The AAC got more $$, more coverage, more access bowl games, and the only playoff spot in amongst the Gang of schools. BB for reasons I don't really understand was less successful. Memphis fell flat, Uconn before they left fell apart, and even Temple and Cincy were a bit down, Then you brought in arguably the best BB program available and they fell off as well.

(05-18-2022 03:30 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Go back to bed, Mike.

This is posted at 4:15 am eastern too. Something happened in the middle of the night to cause this sudden rage posting.

(05-18-2022 07:19 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Regarding performance, the MW was actually the top-performing G5 football conference this past season

When Aresco stumped for the "Access Bowl" in 2012, it created a non-autonomy structure where conferences were judged moreso by what their teams did at the top - as opposed to who had a smaller bottom.

Of course, those added NY6/CFP monies were the tangible rewards for those teams that had a member institution in those games.

The AAC's dominance over New Years Day can't be understated from a visibility standpoint. Unfortunately for the AAC it also led to their losing Houston, UCF, and Cincinnati; as the value of the 3 became too much for the AAC to contain.

(05-18-2022 07:36 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 07:32 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 07:26 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 07:11 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  I have absolutely zero faith in Commissioner Aresco's ability to do anything but negotiate successfully with ESPN, his former employer for broadcasting agreements.

You have to admit though, Aresco's ability to negotiate successfully with ESPN has been huge.

Really? A deal that averages $7m a year per school, and for 12 long years? And soon to be $5.5m once the noobs join, is "successful" negotiation?

That's nowhere near power level. The ACC, whose fans are almost in revolt over how "bad" their TV deal is, got $333m from TV last year, and that number will likely rise when more ACCN revenues come in, while the AAC is getting $83m and is stuck at that for 10 more long years.

That's impressive only by comparison to G5 piddling like MAC/CUSA/SBC. But "P6" doesn't say anything about the MAC, does it? The comparison metric is the Power leagues, and by that metric it isn't in the same galaxy, IMO.

See what I mean, TroyT? This is just the beginning of the derision and scorn that is going to be showering down on you for advocating an ongoing AAC "P6" campaign.

No worries Milwaukee. QuoVadis is a USF fan. If he wants to beat himself up, let him.

Quo always argues about resources, exposure, and academics in every other debate (except for the AAC it seems). I'm not fazed by derision that isn't consistent with previous arguments by said poster.

As I said, I don't think Aresco had much of an option but to ride with a campaign that has been nothing short of a success.

Will it work with the new configuration? I'd like to know that myself. (In keeping with Quo's normal shtick) I am a believer in resources and exposure being an impetus for overall success. The new AAC schools have inherited a superior situation.

Will it manifest into the stranglehold the inaugural AAC bellcows had over the NY6 position? That remains to be seen. Until we know, it's merely a debate. There is no right or wrong answer. It's just message board fodder.

(05-18-2022 07:52 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 07:19 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Regarding performance, the MW was actually the top-performing G5 football conference this past season

When Aresco stumped for the "Access Bowl" in 2012, it created a non-autonomy structure where conferences were judged moreso by what their teams did at the top - as opposed to who had a smaller bottom.

Of course, those added NY6/CFP monies were the tangible rewards for those teams that had a member institution in those games.

The AAC's dominance over New Years Day can't be understated from a visibility standpoint. Unfortunately for the AAC it also led to their losing Houston, UCF, and Cincinnati, as their value became too much for the AAC to contain.

About 2012, my recollection is that the non-AQ commissioners pushed for a "seventh bowl" that would include a non-AQ champ. That idea fell flat with TV, so the Access spot was created.

Beyond that, the CFP non-autonomy structure creates two performance metrics for G5 entities - a "best team" metric that sends the top-ranked G5 champ regardless of conference to an NY6 Bowl, and a "best conference" metric that, well, ranks the G5 conferences. There is a monetary reward payout from the CFP for each of those.

The AAC has produced the top-ranked G5 team five straight years, but has been the top-ranked G5 conference only three of those five years, and really, only twice.

(05-18-2022 07:46 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  It sounds like he should pay the 3 to leave and not the other way around. I totally disagree with some here the P6 was nonsense. The AAC clearly was the best of the rest, with the MWC being #2. The AAC got more $$, more coverage, more access bowl games, and the only playoff spot in amongst the Gang of schools. BB for reasons I don't really understand was less successful. Memphis fell flat, Uconn before they left fell apart, and even Temple and Cincy were a bit down, Then you brought in arguably the best BB program available and they fell off as well.

(05-18-2022 08:05 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 07:36 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 07:32 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 07:26 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 07:11 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  I have absolutely zero faith in Commissioner Aresco's ability to do anything but negotiate successfully with ESPN, his former employer for broadcasting agreements.

You have to admit though, Aresco's ability to negotiate successfully with ESPN has been huge.

Really? A deal that averages $7m a year per school, and for 12 long years? And soon to be $5.5m once the noobs join, is "successful" negotiation?

That's nowhere near power level. The ACC, whose fans are almost in revolt over how "bad" their TV deal is, got $333m from TV last year, and that number will likely rise when more ACCN revenues come in, while the AAC is getting $83m and is stuck at that for 10 more long years.

That's impressive only by comparison to G5 piddling like MAC/CUSA/SBC. But "P6" doesn't say anything about the MAC, does it? The comparison metric is the Power leagues, and by that metric it isn't in the same galaxy, IMO.

See what I mean, TroyT? This is just the beginning of the derision and scorn that is going to be showering down on you for advocating an ongoing AAC "P6" campaign.

No worries Milwaukee. QuoVadis is a USF fan. If he wants to beat himself up, let him.

Quo always argues about resources, exposure, and academics in every other debate (except for the AAC it seems). I'm not fazed by derision that isn't consistent with previous arguments by said poster.

As I said, I don't think Aresco had much of an option but to ride with a campaign that has been nothing short of a success.

Will it work with the new configuration? I'd like to know that myself. (In keeping with Quo's normal shtick) I am a believer in resources and exposure being an impetus for overall success. The new AAC schools have inherited a superior situation.

Will it manifest into the stranglehold the inaugural AAC bellcows had over the NY6 position? That remains to be seen. Until we know, it's merely a debate. There is no right or wrong answer. It's just message board fodder.

Really? About the bold, do you have an example of this kind of alleged inconsistency? Because I can't recall any.

I'd be happy to acknowledge, and address it if you do.

Beyond that, in this case we seem to be talking about different things. I take the "P" in "P6" seriously, so I tend to judge it based on how our metrics compare to, well, "P" conferences. Not on how much distance we have put between ourselves and other "G" conferences.

Heck, in one of the above posts, I do say the AAC TV deal is impressive compared to CUSA/SBC/MAC. But I also say that IMO, beating up on those conferences isn't what "P6" is supposed to be about. Maybe I just haven't been following along carefully enough and misunderstand what "P6" is?

In the NIL era, we don't know what to expect. Will players in the AAC stay with their teams or enter the transfer portal? I don't know if UCF would have kept McKenzie Milton if Miami/FSU pursued him after the 2017 season. We know UCF QB Dillon Gabriel left for Oklahoma. We know UCF WR Jaylon Robinson left for Ole Miss. These guys were stars in the UCF offense and entered the Transfer Portal anyways.

When stars emerge from the AAC they could be poached by P5 teams. The P6 campaign is going to be a lot harder to maintain if the star players are constantly leaving for P5 teams. We are used to the coaches jumping ship for P5 money but now the players are jumping for NIL deals.

The P6 campaign has had limited success. The tv deal is more to do with the inherent value of the members being located in large tv markets. Locking in the G5 Champion slot for the NY6 bowl is important. That success is earned on the field each and every season, not because of some P6 label. The AAC Champion needs to have the resume and the strength of schedule to beat out the other G5 Champions. Still have my doubts if that same success can be replicated in the NIL era.

(05-18-2022 08:27 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  In the NIL era, we don't know what to expect. Will players in the AAC stay with their teams or enter the transfer portal? I don't know if UCF would have kept McKenzie Milton if Miami/FSU pursued him after the 2017 season. We know UCF QB Dillon Gabriel left for Oklahoma. We know UCF WR Jaylon Robinson left for Ole Miss. These guys were stars in the UCF offense and entered the Transfer Portal anyways.

When stars emerge from the AAC they could be poached by P5 teams. The P6 campaign is going to be a lot harder to maintain if the star players are constantly leaving for P5 teams. We are used to the coaches jumping ship for P5 money but now the players are jumping for NIL deals.

The P6 campaign has had limited success. The tv deal is more to do with the inherent value of the members being located in large tv markets. Locking in the G5 Champion slot for the NY6 bowl is important. That success is earned on the field each and every season, not because of some P6 label. The AAC Champion needs to have the resume and the strength of schedule to beat out the other G5 Champions. Still have my doubts if that same success can be replicated in the NIL era.

About the bolded, I agree that the TV deal - which IMO is a "meh" deal, btw - had to do with the value of the members.

About the Access bowl though, I do think this is where "P6" had an impact. IMO, this campaign did create an impression that the AAC was a more dominant football conference (among the Gs) than it actually has been, and that this translated in to giving the top AAC teams the benefit of the doubt compared to the top teams in other G-conferences.

I think this was really in evidence in 2020, when the NY6 spot came down to Cincy and Coastal Carolina. Coastal's resume was very similar to Cincy's, arguably better, and yet Cincy was comfortably ahead of CC in all of the CFP rankings, it was never close. I attribute that to P6, though I can't prove it.

Isn't NCAA president Mark Emmert retiring. Got to wonder if Aresco will put his name in the hat to head up the NCAA.

(05-18-2022 08:50 AM)Green Menace Wrote:  Isn't NCAA president Mark Emmert retiring. Got to wonder if Aresco will put his name in the hat to head up the NCAA.

I doubt it, The guy is 137 years old, Retirement is likely his next stop.