(05-18-2022 10:24 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote: (05-18-2022 08:33 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (05-18-2022 08:27 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote: In the NIL era, we don't know what to expect. Will players in the AAC stay with their teams or enter the transfer portal? I don't know if UCF would have kept McKenzie Milton if Miami/FSU pursued him after the 2017 season. We know UCF QB Dillon Gabriel left for Oklahoma. We know UCF WR Jaylon Robinson left for Ole Miss. These guys were stars in the UCF offense and entered the Transfer Portal anyways.
When stars emerge from the AAC they could be poached by P5 teams. The P6 campaign is going to be a lot harder to maintain if the star players are constantly leaving for P5 teams. We are used to the coaches jumping ship for P5 money but now the players are jumping for NIL deals.
The P6 campaign has had limited success. The tv deal is more to do with the inherent value of the members being located in large tv markets. Locking in the G5 Champion slot for the NY6 bowl is important. That success is earned on the field each and every season, not because of some P6 label. The AAC Champion needs to have the resume and the strength of schedule to beat out the other G5 Champions. Still have my doubts if that same success can be replicated in the NIL era.
About the bolded, I agree that the TV deal - which IMO is a "meh" deal, btw - had to do with the value of the members.
About the Access bowl though, I do think this is where "P6" had an impact. IMO, this campaign did create an impression that the AAC was a more dominant football conference (among the Gs) than it actually has been, and that this translated in to giving the top AAC teams the benefit of the doubt compared to the top teams in other G-conferences.
I think this was really in evidence in 2020, when the NY6 spot came down to Cincy and Coastal Carolina. Coastal's resume was very similar to Cincy's, arguably better, and yet Cincy was comfortably ahead of CC in all of the CFP rankings, it was never close. I attribute that to P6, though I can't prove it.
Agree to disagree
2020 was weird year because of Covid. The PAC cancelled their season.
The AAC and Sunbelt both benefited from the chaos of entire leagues dropping out of the rankings.
UCF and Cincy jumped 7 spots in the rankings (without playing a single game) when the PAC cancelled. That's the same week Louisiana broke into the rankings at #21. If the PAC would have stayed, then Louisiana would have been remained unranked. Coastal Carolina wouldn't have had that ranked win over #21 Louisiana in mid October. The entire 2020 Coastal Carolina storyline doesn't exist without Covid.
No question, 2020 was a bizarro year due to the peak-covid disruptions. Nevertheless, I'm not sure that had an impact here that benefitted Coastal moreso than the AAC. At a certain level, all conferences that kept playing were boosted when the PAC canceled. But IMO none moreso than any other.
For example, yes, when the PAC canceled, that propelled ULL in to the AP rankings, while sending UCF and Cincy up seven spots. But what happened after that?
In late September, when the PAC changed its mind and announced it would play after all, the AP then reversed course and added PAC teams back to the rankings, even though they had played no games. This had the effect of knocking ULL, who had been #19, out of the AP rankings entirely. They fell from #19 out, even though they hadn't lost a game.
The next week, October 4, ULL won to move to 3-0, and re-entered the AP rankings, at #23. This is *with* PAC schools in the rankings now, so fair and square. The next week, October 11, ULL moved up two spots to #21. The following week, they lost to Coastal, and dropped out of the AP rankings. Coastal then entered at #24.
All the while, the AAC teams that got the big boost from the initial PAC cancelation were unaffected. UCF and Cincy basically kept that 7-spot boost you mention even after the PAC returned. They remained ranked in the top 15 after the PAC returned. It was ULL that took a big shot, falling out, thereby losing what they had gained when the PAC initially canceled. They then did re-enter the rankings in time to play Coastal, but that was with the PAC in the equation.
To me, this is more evidence of the impact of the AAC reputation, which P6 contributed to, IMO. If anything, the PAC turmoil benefitted the AAC, and thus Cincy, more than Coastal and the SBC.
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State of the P6 Movement/Campaign: The P6 Campaign is Alive & Well.
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