(05-15-2022 09:28 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(05-15-2022 09:18 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(05-15-2022 09:11 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(05-15-2022 07:56 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(05-15-2022 03:35 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  1) Missouri SEC

2) Kansas BIG12

3) Clemson ACC

4) Florida State ACC

5) Duke ACC

6) North Carolina ACC

7) Virginia ACC

8) NC State ACC

9) Virginia Tech ACC

10) Miami ACC

11) Georgia Tech ACC

12) Notre Dame INDEPENDENT

13) USC PAC12

I'm sensing a pattern here.

I don't know what people expect by 2028? There's still a GoR in effect until 2036.

I expect there to be no ACC, no GOR.

So you expect 12 of 15 to leave at the same time and vote to disband the conference? That's odd because most people have more than 3 left overs.

Yes, because the uncertainty only gets higher the closer schools get to the GOR expiration.

If you're a leftover, your best chance to not see at least a $25 million dip in revenue is to exploit any of the other 12 hesitating with their vote. That puts pressure on any teams unsure if they get into the P2 post-GOR.

And those that feel good about landing in a P2 post-GOR, would be spending around $500 million to delay the death. Which likely lowers even the top schools chances of being worth getting a P2 offer, given most of that $500 million will be player and staff salaries in this era of college sports. They have the second most risk and reason to vote yes.

The P2 bubble schools are really the only question. They could say, we'll hold out for a P2 to the end, thinking the leftover conference making the same as the current ACC deal will always want them. If the BIG is willing to take any that the SEC passes on, it is VERY easy.

I expect ND, plus any school that the SEC makes it known has an invite to vote yes. Worst case scenario, the three leftovers are bought. That gets you close to the votes needed. It's prisoner's dilemma in terms of the ACC surviving, but with most schools actually making equal or more.

This gets more complicated if the Pac12 divides, whether due to some going BIG, USC independent, or CA passing a pay-to-play bill.

(05-15-2022 11:32 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(05-15-2022 09:28 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(05-15-2022 09:18 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(05-15-2022 09:11 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(05-15-2022 07:56 AM)ken d Wrote:  I'm sensing a pattern here.

I don't know what people expect by 2028? There's still a GoR in effect until 2036.

I expect there to be no ACC, no GOR.

So you expect 12 of 15 to leave at the same time and vote to disband the conference? That's odd because most people have more than 3 left overs.

Yes, because the uncertainty only gets higher the closer schools get to the GOR expiration.

If you're a leftover, your best chance to not see at least a $25 million dip in revenue is to exploit the any of the other 12 hesitating with their vote. That puts pressure on any teams unsure if they get into the P2 post-GOR.

And those that feel good about landing in a P2 post-GOR, would be spending around $500 million to delay the death. Which likely lowers even the top schools chances of being worth getting a P2 offer, given most of that $500 million will be player and staff salaries in this era of college sports.

There will be a leftover conference that pays around the current ACC deal, and judging by the recent TV rights escalation, likely more.

The same firms which projected the Big 10 and SEC to hit or exceed 100 million placed the B12, PAC and ACC in the 50 million range. A set up of 3 x 24 includes the likeliest G5 to make the jump and gives them access. This group easily covers a Washington State or Wake Forest. Leave nobody behind, consolidates your national brands into 2, and builds a competitive national conference out of regional brands and in the process you have covered diminished access and diminished value and still have a marketable entity.

New 24

Arizona St. Brigham Young, Oregon St., San Diego St., Washington St., Texas Tech

Baylor, Colorado St., Iowa St., Kansas St., Oklahoma St., Texas Christian

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Central Florida, Georgia Tech, Houston, N.C. State, South Florida, Wake Forest


B1G

California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Utah

Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State, Wisconsin

Indiana, Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers


SEC

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Miami, South Carolina

Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, Virginia Tech


That's the 65 we had in the old P5 plus:
Brigham Young, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Colorado State, Houston, San Diego State, South Florida

(05-15-2022 09:28 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(05-15-2022 09:18 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(05-15-2022 09:11 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(05-15-2022 07:56 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(05-15-2022 03:35 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  1) Missouri SEC

2) Kansas BIG12

3) Clemson ACC

4) Florida State ACC

5) Duke ACC

6) North Carolina ACC

7) Virginia ACC

8) NC State ACC

9) Virginia Tech ACC

10) Miami ACC

11) Georgia Tech ACC

12) Notre Dame INDEPENDENT

13) USC PAC12

I'm sensing a pattern here.

I don't know what people expect by 2028? There's still a GoR in effect until 2036.

I expect there to be no ACC, no GOR.

So you expect 12 of 15 to leave at the same time and vote to disband the conference? That's odd because most people have more than 3 left overs.

I could imagine a scenario in which there is no vote to disband the ACC, but all 15 members find a home elsewhere with the "encouragement" of ESPN.

Because the ACC is all in with ESPN, the B1G might decide that the ACC teams where there is mutual interest wouldn't alleviate their perceived deficiency in football strength and might be hampered by their GoR for years to come. So they may opt to make a preemptive strike and go big. The only way they pry PAC schools loose is by inviting enough of them to fill their conference schedules. There are 8 AAU schools in the PAC, and they would make a coherent and powerful division in the B1G.

In response, there are 8 schools in the ACC who might see the SEC as a lifeboat if the dreaded P2 begins to seem inevitable, and 6 schools the SEC probably isn't interested in. If the message from ESPN to those six is "we will find a safe harbor for you in the Big 12, but only if you act now. If you hold out until the GoR expires, you are on your own and will be lucky if the AAC picks you up for a song". If they agree to move (getting some cash from the other 8 to ease the pain), that frees up the other schools to move together to the SEC immediately.

As for Notre Dame, if they no longer have a league they are contractually obligated to, they likely would see the P2 handwriting on the wall and no suitable option except joining the B1G where they have a path to a national championship or independence where they have none.

There are some interesting statistics about the hypothetical 48 team P2 I suggested. Between them they would have 15 of the top 16 schools as measured by their 10 year Sagarin football ratings, and 21 of the top 25. Any P2 champion would almost surely be recognized as the national champ.

The 48 schools have a four year average attendance of about 65K. The other 83 FBS schools average 26K. In the 2022 NFL draft 155 out of 270 players selected came from those 48 schools (and in the future world of a P2 that number would very likely increase. Between them, the two conferences' members reside in 31 of the 41 states that have at least one FBS school, and those states contain 83% of the US population. Of the 37 AAU schools that field an FBS team, 30 would belong to the P2. That data, plus their enormous revenue gap with the other 8 FBS conferences, point to an overwhelming recruiting advantage, even greater than those schools already enjoy. They could, and would, make their own rules.

I don't know if this will happen, but I believe it could happen.

(05-15-2022 12:46 PM)ken d Wrote:  I could imagine a scenario in which there is no vote to disband the ACC, but all 15 members find a home elsewhere with the "encouragement" of ESPN.

No way. There are schools in the ACC who would never voluntarily agree to that because the ACC is the best conference they could ever hope to be in and they would end up in G-ville if the ACC goes away.

New 18 (24 just dilutes things too much)

Arizona St. Brigham Young, Oregon St., San Diego St., Washington St., Texas Tech

Baylor, Colorado St., Iowa St., Kansas St., Oklahoma St., Texas Christian

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Central Florida, Georgia Tech, Houston,N.C. State, South Florida, Wake Forest

Arizona, Utah, Colorado, (-1 of OK State, PITT, WVU, Louisville, or Colorado)

B1G

California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Utah

Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State, Wisconsin

Indiana, Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, Kansas, Missouri (the SEC should help them pack), DUKE (too snooty for the SEC)


SEC

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Miami, South Carolina

Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, Virginia Tech
GA Tech, NC State, (+1 of OK State, PITT, WVU, Louisville, or Colorado)

(05-15-2022 02:10 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(05-15-2022 12:46 PM)ken d Wrote:  I could imagine a scenario in which there is no vote to disband the ACC, but all 15 members find a home elsewhere with the "encouragement" of ESPN.

No way. There are schools in the ACC who would never voluntarily agree to that because the ACC is the best conference they could ever hope to be in and they would end up in G-ville if the ACC goes away.

This is why a Tweener P conference is likely. The schools which you reference won't move for loss of status or access. So, to make the transition work a third P conference will be created, with full access to postseasons, just at a lesser payout than the B1G and SEC, but at a rate higher than they currently earn. Networks want to maximize brand power, but also have need of solid T2 and T3 material for streaming and closing back doors on advertising in key regions. They have more value in an essentially closed market. The trick is in segregating regional brands at regional value from national brands at national values.

A 3 x 24 achieves this. Form follows function.

(05-15-2022 11:32 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  Yes, because the uncertainty only gets higher the closer schools get to the GOR expiration.

If you're a leftover, your best chance to not see at least a $25 million dip in revenue is to exploit any of the other 12 hesitating with their vote. That puts pressure on any teams unsure if they get into the P2 post-GOR.

And those that feel good about landing in a P2 post-GOR, would be spending around $500 million to delay the death. Which likely lowers even the top schools chances of being worth getting a P2 offer, given most of that $500 million will be player and staff salaries in this era of college sports. They have the second most risk and reason to vote yes.

The P2 bubble schools are really the only question. They could say, we'll hold out for a P2 to the end, thinking the leftover conference making the same as the current ACC deal will always want them. If the BIG is willing to take any that the SEC passes on, it is VERY easy.

I expect ND, plus any school that the SEC makes it known has an invite to vote yes. Worst case scenario, the three leftovers are bought. That gets you close to the votes needed. It's prisoner's dilemma in terms of the ACC surviving, but with most schools actually making equal or more.

This gets more complicated if the Pac12 divides, whether due to some going BIG, USC independent, or CA passing a pay-to-play bill.

Maybe but, I think JRSEC or Ken d's plan where all ACC schools find a better home is more likely.

(05-15-2022 12:10 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The same firms which projected the Big 10 and SEC to hit or exceed 100 million placed the B12, PAC and ACC in the 50 million range. A set up of 3 x 24 includes the likeliest G5 to make the jump and gives them access. This group easily covers a Washington State or Wake Forest. Leave nobody behind, consolidates your national brands into 2, and builds a competitive national conference out of regional brands and in the process you have covered diminished access and diminished value and still have a marketable entity.

New 24

Arizona St. Brigham Young, Oregon St., San Diego St., Washington St., Texas Tech

Baylor, Colorado St., Iowa St., Kansas St., Oklahoma St., Texas Christian

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Central Florida, Georgia Tech, Houston, N.C. State, South Florida, Wake Forest


B1G

California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Utah

Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State, Wisconsin

Indiana, Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers


SEC

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Miami, South Carolina

Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, Virginia Tech


That's the 65 we had in the old P5 plus:
Brigham Young, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Colorado State, Houston, San Diego State, South Florida

Looks good to me! Sign me up!

(05-15-2022 12:46 PM)ken d Wrote:  I could imagine a scenario in which there is no vote to disband the ACC, but all 15 members find a home elsewhere with the "encouragement" of ESPN.

Because the ACC is all in with ESPN, the B1G might decide that the ACC teams where there is mutual interest wouldn't alleviate their perceived deficiency in football strength and might be hampered by their GoR for years to come. So they may opt to make a preemptive strike and go big. The only way they pry PAC schools loose is by inviting enough of them to fill their conference schedules. There are 8 AAU schools in the PAC, and they would make a coherent and powerful division in the B1G.

In response, there are 8 schools in the ACC who might see the SEC as a lifeboat if the dreaded P2 begins to seem inevitable, and 6 schools the SEC probably isn't interested in. If the message from ESPN to those six is "we will find a safe harbor for you in the Big 12, but only if you act now. If you hold out until the GoR expires, you are on your own and will be lucky if the AAC picks you up for a song". If they agree to move (getting some cash from the other 8 to ease the pain), that frees up the other schools to move together to the SEC immediately.

As for Notre Dame, if they no longer have a league they are contractually obligated to, they likely would see the P2 handwriting on the wall and no suitable option except joining the B1G where they have a path to a national championship or independence where they have none.

There are some interesting statistics about the hypothetical 48 team P2 I suggested. Between them they would have 15 of the top 16 schools as measured by their 10 year Sagarin football ratings, and 21 of the top 25. Any P2 champion would almost surely be recognized as the national champ.

The 48 schools have a four year average attendance of about 65K. The other 83 FBS schools average 26K. In the 2022 NFL draft 155 out of 270 players selected came from those 48 schools (and in the future world of a P2 that number would very likely increase. Between them, the two conferences' members reside in 31 of the 41 states that have at least one FBS school, and those states contain 83% of the US population. Of the 37 AAU schools that field an FBS team, 30 would belong to the P2. That data, plus their enormous revenue gap with the other 8 FBS conferences, point to an overwhelming recruiting advantage, even greater than those schools already enjoy. They could, and would, make their own rules.

I don't know if this will happen, but I believe it could happen.

I think the ACCN would have to become the Big 24 (or however many teams they have in it) network but there's merit to the idea.

Pretty soon the ACC will be making $40ish mil in media revenue per school and if ESPN is offering $60 mil or more per school to a best of the rest conference. They could make it happen.

The big question is why would ESPN want to do that?

(05-15-2022 02:50 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(05-15-2022 11:32 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  Yes, because the uncertainty only gets higher the closer schools get to the GOR expiration.

If you're a leftover, your best chance to not see at least a $25 million dip in revenue is to exploit any of the other 12 hesitating with their vote. That puts pressure on any teams unsure if they get into the P2 post-GOR.

And those that feel good about landing in a P2 post-GOR, would be spending around $500 million to delay the death. Which likely lowers even the top schools chances of being worth getting a P2 offer, given most of that $500 million will be player and staff salaries in this era of college sports. They have the second most risk and reason to vote yes.

The P2 bubble schools are really the only question. They could say, we'll hold out for a P2 to the end, thinking the leftover conference making the same as the current ACC deal will always want them. If the BIG is willing to take any that the SEC passes on, it is VERY easy.

I expect ND, plus any school that the SEC makes it known has an invite to vote yes. Worst case scenario, the three leftovers are bought. That gets you close to the votes needed. It's prisoner's dilemma in terms of the ACC surviving, but with most schools actually making equal or more.

This gets more complicated if the Pac12 divides, whether due to some going BIG, USC independent, or CA passing a pay-to-play bill.

Maybe but, I think JRSEC or Ken d's plan where all ACC schools find a better home is more likely.

(05-15-2022 12:10 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The same firms which projected the Big 10 and SEC to hit or exceed 100 million placed the B12, PAC and ACC in the 50 million range. A set up of 3 x 24 includes the likeliest G5 to make the jump and gives them access. This group easily covers a Washington State or Wake Forest. Leave nobody behind, consolidates your national brands into 2, and builds a competitive national conference out of regional brands and in the process you have covered diminished access and diminished value and still have a marketable entity.

New 24

Arizona St. Brigham Young, Oregon St., San Diego St., Washington St., Texas Tech

Baylor, Colorado St., Iowa St., Kansas St., Oklahoma St., Texas Christian

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Central Florida, Georgia Tech, Houston, N.C. State, South Florida, Wake Forest


B1G

California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Utah

Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State, Wisconsin

Indiana, Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers


SEC

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Miami, South Carolina

Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, Virginia Tech


That's the 65 we had in the old P5 plus:
Brigham Young, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Colorado State, Houston, San Diego State, South Florida

Looks good to me! Sign me up!

(05-15-2022 12:46 PM)ken d Wrote:  I could imagine a scenario in which there is no vote to disband the ACC, but all 15 members find a home elsewhere with the "encouragement" of ESPN.

Because the ACC is all in with ESPN, the B1G might decide that the ACC teams where there is mutual interest wouldn't alleviate their perceived deficiency in football strength and might be hampered by their GoR for years to come. So they may opt to make a preemptive strike and go big. The only way they pry PAC schools loose is by inviting enough of them to fill their conference schedules. There are 8 AAU schools in the PAC, and they would make a coherent and powerful division in the B1G.

In response, there are 8 schools in the ACC who might see the SEC as a lifeboat if the dreaded P2 begins to seem inevitable, and 6 schools the SEC probably isn't interested in. If the message from ESPN to those six is "we will find a safe harbor for you in the Big 12, but only if you act now. If you hold out until the GoR expires, you are on your own and will be lucky if the AAC picks you up for a song". If they agree to move (getting some cash from the other 8 to ease the pain), that frees up the other schools to move together to the SEC immediately.

As for Notre Dame, if they no longer have a league they are contractually obligated to, they likely would see the P2 handwriting on the wall and no suitable option except joining the B1G where they have a path to a national championship or independence where they have none.

There are some interesting statistics about the hypothetical 48 team P2 I suggested. Between them they would have 15 of the top 16 schools as measured by their 10 year Sagarin football ratings, and 21 of the top 25. Any P2 champion would almost surely be recognized as the national champ.

The 48 schools have a four year average attendance of about 65K. The other 83 FBS schools average 26K. In the 2022 NFL draft 155 out of 270 players selected came from those 48 schools (and in the future world of a P2 that number would very likely increase. Between them, the two conferences' members reside in 31 of the 41 states that have at least one FBS school, and those states contain 83% of the US population. Of the 37 AAU schools that field an FBS team, 30 would belong to the P2. That data, plus their enormous revenue gap with the other 8 FBS conferences, point to an overwhelming recruiting advantage, even greater than those schools already enjoy. They could, and would, make their own rules.

I don't know if this will happen, but I believe it could happen.

I think the ACCN would have to become the Big 24 (or however many teams they have in it) network but there's merit to the idea.

Pretty soon the ACC will be making $40ish mil in media revenue per school and if ESPN is offering $60 mil or more per school to a best of the rest conference. They could make it happen.

The big question is why would ESPN want to do that?

To have a 50% or larger share in the CFP and Hoops Tournament, and to consolidate advertising rights within a definable group of ~72 schools which also enhances the value of all games if the schedules are closed to that 72. It would be FOX's motivation as well. And ESPN could convert bowls they've purchased rights to into playoff sites where possible.

(05-15-2022 02:10 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(05-15-2022 12:46 PM)ken d Wrote:  I could imagine a scenario in which there is no vote to disband the ACC, but all 15 members find a home elsewhere with the "encouragement" of ESPN.

No way. There are schools in the ACC who would never voluntarily agree to that because the ACC is the best conference they could ever hope to be in and they would end up in G-ville if the ACC goes away.

What I was describing wasn't a voluntary situation. It was a situation in which the ACC is presumed to be going away, and without those schools getting a golden ticket. It was "go to a tweener conference now or end up in G-ville later". I really don't see them finding a P2 home (and I don't see the ACC as one of a P2).

JR supposes a third 24 team conference, but not truly a P3, because there just aren't that many top brands for that. The third conference is a tweener, whether it ends up being 18 teams or 24 teams. If AAU member Utah becomes one of nine PAC teams in the B1G and all six ACC leftovers are invited to join the tweener B12, that leaves room for the PAC 3 (Wazzou, Oregon St and Arizona St) and three more. Maybe that's Boise and SDSU (with BYU sliding over to the western division and then a battle between MWC and AAC teams for the 24th and last spot.

Then the question is, would all six ACC teams get an invite or is somebody vulnerable.

(05-15-2022 02:50 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(05-15-2022 11:32 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  Yes, because the uncertainty only gets higher the closer schools get to the GOR expiration.

If you're a leftover, your best chance to not see at least a $25 million dip in revenue is to exploit any of the other 12 hesitating with their vote. That puts pressure on any teams unsure if they get into the P2 post-GOR.

And those that feel good about landing in a P2 post-GOR, would be spending around $500 million to delay the death. Which likely lowers even the top schools chances of being worth getting a P2 offer, given most of that $500 million will be player and staff salaries in this era of college sports. They have the second most risk and reason to vote yes.

The P2 bubble schools are really the only question. They could say, we'll hold out for a P2 to the end, thinking the leftover conference making the same as the current ACC deal will always want them. If the BIG is willing to take any that the SEC passes on, it is VERY easy.

I expect ND, plus any school that the SEC makes it known has an invite to vote yes. Worst case scenario, the three leftovers are bought. That gets you close to the votes needed. It's prisoner's dilemma in terms of the ACC surviving, but with most schools actually making equal or more.

This gets more complicated if the Pac12 divides, whether due to some going BIG, USC independent, or CA passing a pay-to-play bill.

Maybe but, I think JRSEC or Ken d's plan where all ACC schools find a better home is more likely.

It’s the same plan!

Big 12 East will be one division of the “+1” of the P2 + 1. Due to the ACC contract, even the ACC leftovers can be swayed into a yes vote because they’ll be offers more or equal. And Memphis will be there ready to accept anyone that is tempted to hold out for P2.

We’re already in a P2 setup when it’s BIG/SEC plus three conference $50 million or so behind. The ACC dissolution will just result in less ACC schools in the weaker tier, but with all earning more than current GOR

(05-14-2022 01:45 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

Quote:Which football conference are these schools in Sept. 1, 2028?

That is too soon for that much movement.

Ten years elapsed between the SEC announcing Texas A&M as a member and the SEC announcing UT and OU.

On the internet we expect things to happen at internet speeds, but IRL, big things usually don't move that quickly.

On top of that, don't confuse "where a team would like to go" with "can a conference actually make more money for each of its existing members by adding that team".

The bolded part is so true. I know people are impatiently waiting for the ACC to explode but (1) the ACC is much cohesive than people think and (2) even if some schools may want to leave, the freaking GoR expires in 2036. I don’t see any reputable news media predicitng any ACC schools leave before the GoR.

1) Missouri - SEC
2) Kansas - B1G
3) Clemson - ACC
4) Florida State - ACC
5) Duke - ACC
6) North Carolina - ACC
7) Virginia - ACC
8) NC State - ACC
9) Virginia Tech - ACC
10) Miami - ACC
11) Georgia Tech - ACC
12) Notre Dame - Independent
13) USC - Pac-12

(05-15-2022 04:18 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(05-15-2022 02:10 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(05-15-2022 12:46 PM)ken d Wrote:  I could imagine a scenario in which there is no vote to disband the ACC, but all 15 members find a home elsewhere with the "encouragement" of ESPN.

No way. There are schools in the ACC who would never voluntarily agree to that because the ACC is the best conference they could ever hope to be in and they would end up in G-ville if the ACC goes away.

What I was describing wasn't a voluntary situation. It was a situation in which the ACC is presumed to be going away, and without those schools getting a golden ticket. It was "go to a tweener conference now or end up in G-ville later". I really don't see them finding a P2 home (and I don't see the ACC as one of a P2).

JR supposes a third 24 team conference, but not truly a P3, because there just aren't that many top brands for that. The third conference is a tweener, whether it ends up being 18 teams or 24 teams. If AAU member Utah becomes one of nine PAC teams in the B1G and all six ACC leftovers are invited to join the tweener B12, that leaves room for the PAC 3 (Wazzou, Oregon St and Arizona St) and three more. Maybe that's Boise and SDSU (with BYU sliding over to the western division and then a battle between MWC and AAC teams for the 24th and last spot.

Then the question is, would all six ACC teams get an invite or is somebody vulnerable.

There are 72 schools in a 3 x 24. If it has full access to the post season it's a P conference regardless of the pay difference. The worst overall position for an ACC school is 61st Wake Forest. I don't see any being left out. Boise State at 83rd is a non starter for this group. Look at Total Revenue and go to EADA and look at each school's level of Subsidy. Most G5's are subsidized much more than 25%. All (except BYU are subsidized at least 25%. San Diego State, the Florida Twins, Colorado St, Cincinnati all have upward trajectories. Temple would likely get a serious look. Their issue is the number of better available schools in their region (B.C., Pitt, Cincy, Louisville, WVU, Cuse).

So if we are collectivizing the remaining product all ACC schools are easily in.

(05-15-2022 04:18 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(05-15-2022 02:10 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(05-15-2022 12:46 PM)ken d Wrote:  I could imagine a scenario in which there is no vote to disband the ACC, but all 15 members find a home elsewhere with the "encouragement" of ESPN.

No way. There are schools in the ACC who would never voluntarily agree to that because the ACC is the best conference they could ever hope to be in and they would end up in G-ville if the ACC goes away.

What I was describing wasn't a voluntary situation. It was a situation in which the ACC is presumed to be going away, and without those schools getting a golden ticket. It was "go to a tweener conference now or end up in G-ville later". I really don't see them finding a P2 home (and I don't see the ACC as one of a P2).

JR supposes a third 24 team conference, but not truly a P3, because there just aren't that many top brands for that. The third conference is a tweener, whether it ends up being 18 teams or 24 teams. If AAU member Utah becomes one of nine PAC teams in the B1G and all six ACC leftovers are invited to join the tweener B12, that leaves room for the PAC 3 (Wazzou, Oregon St and Arizona St) and three more. Maybe that's Boise and SDSU (with BYU sliding over to the western division and then a battle between MWC and AAC teams for the 24th and last spot.

Then the question is, would all six ACC teams get an invite or is somebody vulnerable.

That last part is a good question, and could go for WSU and Oregon St too imo. It’s a jockeying to end up in the tweener conference.

Each of the weak P5s have vulnerable schools imo. There are MWC and AAC schools that could steal spots depending on timing. Is BC at risk if only 8 P12 go BIG first and Memphis and USF are already in the Big 12?

This is undoubtedly why the Big 12 invited top G5. Between that and its central location, it’s seeking to be the base of best of rest. It’s also why letting OU and UT out of GOR in exchange for first ACC liquidation and leveraging USC should be a settlement point, but that’s just my opinion.


A real interesting alternate scenario is the BIG being okay with ACC schools that the SEC doesn’t prioritize or if they go with the 8+ ND move. They’d be a few votes from takeover. I don’t think Fox has the chops to organize that- move any to Big 12 for equal pay. I also don’t see them doing that while leaving the Pac12 and Rose Bowl unprotected- if they’re going to likely subsidize or do unequal revenue sharing with the added division, why not preserve P12 and Rose Bowl? ESPN with no ACC and maybe no BIG would spend to get USC and ND imo

(05-15-2022 04:36 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-15-2022 04:18 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(05-15-2022 02:10 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(05-15-2022 12:46 PM)ken d Wrote:  I could imagine a scenario in which there is no vote to disband the ACC, but all 15 members find a home elsewhere with the "encouragement" of ESPN.

No way. There are schools in the ACC who would never voluntarily agree to that because the ACC is the best conference they could ever hope to be in and they would end up in G-ville if the ACC goes away.

What I was describing wasn't a voluntary situation. It was a situation in which the ACC is presumed to be going away, and without those schools getting a golden ticket. It was "go to a tweener conference now or end up in G-ville later". I really don't see them finding a P2 home (and I don't see the ACC as one of a P2).

JR supposes a third 24 team conference, but not truly a P3, because there just aren't that many top brands for that. The third conference is a tweener, whether it ends up being 18 teams or 24 teams. If AAU member Utah becomes one of nine PAC teams in the B1G and all six ACC leftovers are invited to join the tweener B12, that leaves room for the PAC 3 (Wazzou, Oregon St and Arizona St) and three more. Maybe that's Boise and SDSU (with BYU sliding over to the western division and then a battle between MWC and AAC teams for the 24th and last spot.

Then the question is, would all six ACC teams get an invite or is somebody vulnerable.

There are 72 schools in a 3 x 24. If it has full access to the post season it's a P conference regardless of the pay difference. The worst overall position for an ACC school is 61st Wake Forest. I don't see any being left out. Boise State at 83rd is a non starter for this group. Look at Total Revenue and go to EADA and look at each school's level of Subsidy. Most G5's are subsidized much more than 25%. All (except BYU are subsidized at least 25%. San Diego State, the Florida Twins, Colorado St, Cincinnati all have upward trajectories. Temple would likely get a serious look. Their issue is the number of better available schools in their region (B.C., Pitt, Cincy, Louisville, WVU, Cuse).

So if we are collectivizing the remaining product all ACC schools are easily in.

Also, few in that 3rd 24 team group sees less access than they do now. I’d argue they could have more. The former P5s no longer have big brands in front of them in their conference.

They likely have more pay than now due to tv rights escalating. They won’t have the pay of the P2. But that’s no different in the P5 setup. It’s already setup to be a P2 world in revenue.

Not many of these will slide in recruiting, either. They’re already the back 24 in the sport. That’s why they’re in this conference. (This assumes transfer rules modified. But if that is not changed, these schools are in trouble even if P5 setup stays)

So the ratio of access to revenue is improved. Which likely grows these brands rather than a century of trying to run with OU or USC, while growing the sport some. Yet, with the networks making it more kill-what-you-eat for schools.

This all works because access is the equalizer. And that’s fairly cheap for the P2 to give up a spot, maybe even two. It works for making the NCAA tournament an event full of underdogs in the first weekend.

In a 3X24 model, I would have the B1G East division consist of (in order of their 10 year MSR):

Notre Dame, Penn State, Michigan St, Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue, Maryland, Rutgers

The new 24 team Big 12 divisions (we really need to come up with new names):

West Virginia, Louisville, Pitt, Cincinnati, Boston College, Syracuse
TCU, Georgia Tech, UCF, Houston, Wake Forest, USF
Oklahoma St, Baylor, Kansas St, Texas Tech, Iowa St, Kansas
Boise State, Arizona St, BYU, Washington St, San Diego St, Oregon St

In this model the conference stats look like this:

Conf....Attend....10yr MSR...# Top 25

SEC........70K.........80..............10
B1G........61K.........77..............11
B12........42K.........74................4
G5..........20K.........60...............0

P3 Tot......54K.........77..............25

New 42

Brigham Young, Oregon St., Washington St., Boise State, Utah, Utah State,

Arizona, Arizona State, San Diego State, Fresno State, Nevada, UNLV

Texas Tech, Texas Christian, Houston, SMU, UTSA, New Mexico

Colorado, Colorado St., Iowa St., Kansas St., Tulsa, AFA,

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Syracuse, Pitt, UConn

South Florida, Mississippi State, East Carolina, Memphis, Southern Miss, Louisiana

Rice, Vanderbilt, Duke, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Tulane,

B1G

Cal-Berkeley, UCLA, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin,

Illinois, Northwestern, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Notre Dame,

Ohio State, Indiana, Maryland, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers

SEC

Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Oklahoma St.,

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky,

Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina, Central Florida

North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, N.C. State, West Virginia, Miami,