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Which “bubble” teams make the cut in a 2x24 P2?
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #1
Which “bubble” teams make the cut in a 2x24 P2?
Let’s say we end up with a P2.

All the SEC and Big 10 teams should be safe unless they decide to opt out (Vandy? NW?)

I think there are 6 Pac12 and 6 ACC schools that are fairly safe locks:

USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Wash, Ore
ND, Clemson, FSU, UNC, UVA, Duke

I also think Ore St, Wash St, BC, Cuse, WF, and the whole Big 12 minus Kansas are out.

That leaves 11 programs vying for 6 slots:

Arizona, Arizona St, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Pitt, Louisville, VT, NC St, GT, & Miami

Who do you think makes the cut?
05-13-2022 01:39 PM
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dbackjon Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Which “bubble” teams make the cut in a 2x24 P2?
Tough - some good programs. Not sure 2*24 has any special magic
05-13-2022 04:35 PM
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BatonRougeEscapee Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Which “bubble” teams make the cut in a 2x24 P2?
Big Ten needs 10 and SEC needs 8.

Too many variables to vote in my opinion.

Where does ND end up?
How many of Duke, UNC, and UVA end up in each conference or do they all end up in one?
Can the BIG convince Missouri that it fits better with their conference?

I think Clemson for sure and likely FSU (unless they keep stinking and get bypassed) end up in the SEC.
I think the top 6 PACs end up in the BIG.
I think everyone else depends on where the other "sure thing" teams end up.

The BIG would take at least 10 of the PACs if needed. I don't think the SEC takes any.

Other teams the BIG would tolerate include: Kansas, Missouri, UNC, UVA, DUKE, Ga Tech. Anyone else, I think they would prefer PAC schools.

SEC could literally invite any of the top 10 ACC, KU, OK State, and of course N.D. depending on what the goal is.

Regardless of who goes where, I think the Big XII will have a lot of good options to fill out the third conference. I hope they are patient and don't rush to add any less desirables.

I'm going to vote under the assumption that the BIG gets ND, their top 3 ACC schools, and top 6 PAC schools
05-13-2022 04:49 PM
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Wahoowa84 Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Which “bubble” teams make the cut in a 2x24 P2?
(05-13-2022 04:49 PM)BatonRougeEscapee Wrote:  Big Ten needs 10 and SEC needs 8.

Too many variables to vote in my opinion.

Where does ND end up?
How many of Duke, UNC, and UVA end up in each conference or do they all end up in one?
Can the BIG convince Missouri that it fits better with their conference?

I think Clemson for sure and likely FSU (unless they keep stinking and get bypassed) end up in the SEC.
I think the top 6 PACs end up in the BIG.
I think everyone else depends on where the other "sure thing" teams end up.

The BIG would take at least 10 of the PACs if needed. I don't think the SEC takes any.

Other teams the BIG would tolerate include: Kansas, Missouri, UNC, UVA, DUKE, Ga Tech. Anyone else, I think they would prefer PAC schools.

SEC could literally invite any of the top 10 ACC, KU, OK State, and of course N.D. depending on what the goal is.

Regardless of who goes where, I think the Big XII will have a lot of good options to fill out the third conference. I hope they are patient and don't rush to add any less desirables.

I'm going to vote under the assumption that the BIG gets ND, their top 3 ACC schools, and top 6 PAC schools

I started similarly, but then went for value…
B1G - ND, UVa, UNC, Duke, Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, USC & UCLA
SEC - FSU, Clemson, NC State, Virginia Tech, Miami, Kansas, Colorado and Arizona State
05-13-2022 05:16 PM
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SouthEastAlaska Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Which “bubble” teams make the cut in a 2x24 P2?
24 is to small, "IF" this happens it's a minimum of two conferences of 32.

There is currently 69 teams in the P5. Assuming the SEC and B1G would keep everyone they currently have, you would have to cut out 5 schools to get to 64. Your vulnerable schools are BYU, UCF, Cincinnati, Houston, Kansas state, Baylor, TCU, Washington state, Oregon state, Wake Forest, and Boston College. Everyone else is in.

Even what I have presented to you is flawed IMO, I have always thought the number in a breakaway league would be closer to 80 if it was to happen. 3x24 or 4x20...
05-13-2022 06:51 PM
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goofus Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Which “bubble” teams make the cut in a 2x24 P2?
IN
ND, FL ST, Clem, UNC, NCSU, VA, GT
USC, UCLA, Cal, Stan, Ore, Wash,
Kan, Col, Utah, Ariz, Ariz St,


Out
Wake, Duke, VT, Lou, Pitt, CUSE, BC, Miami
Wash St, Ore St,
TT, TCU, Bay, Ok St, KSU, ISU, WV
BYU, Cincy, Hou, UCF
05-14-2022 06:50 AM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Which “bubble” teams make the cut in a 2x24 P2?
IMHO, which conference UVA, UNC, and Duke pick is the key to all of this.

If they choose the Big 10, the Big 10’s 10 expansion schools are:

USC, UCLA, Stanford, Cal, Ore, Wash, ND, UVA, UNC, and Duke

Pitt, Ariz, Ariz St, Colorado, and Utah are all out.

The SEC’s 8 expansion schools are: FSU, Clemson, VT, NC St, Miami, Louisville, Kansas, and then some school not this list, maybe a WVU, gets a new lease on life.

——

If UVA, UNC, and Duke pick the SEC, then the SEC takes those plus FSU and Clemson and 3 of these 5 make the cut: Miami, VT, NC St, Louisville, GT

That then opens things up for 3 slots in the Big 10:

Utah, Ariz, Ariz St, and Colorado are then reliant on their PAC 12 Comrades to push for 8 schools in the Pacific Division, as opposed to 6. Colorado might be able to sneak in as a Central Division team with Nebraska.

Pitt and Kansas are your wiggle room schools or if there’s an AAU ACC school left out or maybe Miami gets considered.
05-14-2022 07:27 AM
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Transic_nyc Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Which “bubble” teams make the cut in a 2x24 P2?
I'm seconding Wahoowa84's suggestion for the following reasons:

- Where Tobacco Road may go could depend on how valuable the Duke part of the relationship is to either side of the divide. Yes, either side would take them to package with UNC. However, there's a degree of desire that may factor in. The SEC is more interested in protecting the states of GA and FL, now that they've sewn up TX. They'd still have an path into NC/VA through VT and NC State.

- Likewise, the Big Ten would be more interested in USC and ND, so they wouldn't spend valuable slots on a GT or Miami, the latter which may be snagged by the SEC, anyway.

- The Big Ten, if they can make a deal for USC and ND plus Tobacco Road, might then leave an opening in the interior West for the SEC to move in. That means the markets of Denver, Kansas City and, especially, Phoenix and all points in between. Look at a map and you could see an area where the Southeast merges with the central plains and Southwest and into the red areas of the interior West. Phoenix would become a Western outpost of a South-viewing league. Lots of new demos to tie in their acquisitions of Texas, A&M, Arkansas and Oklahoma. Colorado reunites with a few former Big 8 mates but without the small school baggage. But the biggest move would be the Phoenix market. The total land area is mostly red territory with the exception of Denver and Austin/Houston/Dallas.

- The only areas that wouldn't be covered by the P2 would be New England (but brands like ND would cover a portion of it), northern plains and parts of the Mountain Time Zone, Alaska and Hawaii.


If the game is to have a future then most of the valuable areas of the country would have to be engaged.
05-14-2022 08:41 AM
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SkullyMaroo Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Which “bubble” teams make the cut in a 2x24 P2?
So we now have a P5 and G5. I’m guessing in this hypothetical the P2 also breaks off with the GX and leaves them behind. Either way I’m sure after a few years 48 teams in the P2 will be too many and a super group from the P2 will need to form a P1. Then after a while Alabama and Ohio State will decide they just need to be in a P with each other and leave the P1 behind. I mean, when does it stop?
05-14-2022 09:06 AM
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UTEPDallas Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Which “bubble” teams make the cut in a 2x24 P2?
There’s schools in the “P2” that don’t deserve to be in just because of what happened decades ago. The Mississippi schools are two of those.
05-14-2022 09:18 AM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Which “bubble” teams make the cut in a 2x24 P2?
(05-14-2022 09:18 AM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  There’s schools in the “P2” that don’t deserve to be in just because of what happened decades ago. The Mississippi schools are two of those.

There’s certainly some Big 10 and SEC schools that aren’t as valuable as others, but since those conferences are in the catbird seat I don’t see any of their current membership getting left out.

For what it’s worth, I think the MS schools pull their weight in the SEC—it’s Vandy that really doesn’t fit the mold.
05-14-2022 12:27 PM
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ccbfan Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Which “bubble” teams make the cut in a 2x24 P2?
No schools in the big 10 and sec are being left behind and also remember university presidents are voting for this not ADs.

So you basically got 10 spots in big 10 and 8 in sec.

The powers of the pac 12 (usc, cal, ucla, Stanford, wash, Oregon) and ND are almost guaranteed to end up with the big 10.

Clemson, FSU are almost certain to end up in the SEC.

Virginia, UNC, Duke, GTech are guaranteed a spot somewhere.

That’s means you got 5 spots left.

Colorado, Miami and a Arizona school will probably get a spot.

That mean there’s really only 2 spots available for the rest.
(This post was last modified: 05-14-2022 12:44 PM by ccbfan.)
05-14-2022 12:42 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Which “bubble” teams make the cut in a 2x24 P2?
Interesting trend in the voting: Pitt, Louisville, Utah, and GT seem to be the ones folks have the least confidence in.

The others are all relatively close.
05-14-2022 12:47 PM
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spenser Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Which “bubble” teams make the cut in a 2x24 P2?
This is a very good question, but I think in reality both only get to 20. So 2 of the teams everyone is assuming are locks and none of these schools make it. Maybe 6 or 8 of them make it to the Big 12.
05-15-2022 08:17 AM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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RE: Which “bubble” teams make the cut in a 2x24 P2?
(05-15-2022 08:17 AM)spenser Wrote:  This is a very good question, but I think in reality both only get to 20. So 2 of the teams everyone is assuming are locks and none of these schools make it. Maybe 6 or 8 of them make it to the Big 12.

I think it has to be more than 20 for a couple reasons:

It’s easier to kill the ACC, the more ACC schools get incorporated

The Big 10 going to 20 would probably mean adding 6 PAC 12 schools, and no one else. The Big 10 definitely wants ND and probably has their eye on a few others.
05-15-2022 05:18 PM
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bullet Offline
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Post: #16
RE: Which “bubble” teams make the cut in a 2x24 P2?
(05-13-2022 01:39 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Let’s say we end up with a P2.

All the SEC and Big 10 teams should be safe unless they decide to opt out (Vandy? NW?)

I think there are 6 Pac12 and 6 ACC schools that are fairly safe locks:

USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Wash, Ore
ND, Clemson, FSU, UNC, UVA, Duke

I also think Ore St, Wash St, BC, Cuse, WF, and the whole Big 12 minus Kansas are out.

That leaves 11 programs vying for 6 slots:

Arizona, Arizona St, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Pitt, Louisville, VT, NC St, GT, & Miami

Who do you think makes the cut?

Duke is not a sure thing. Oregon isn't even 100% because of their small market, although Nike should keep them in. Oregon St., Washington St. and Wake are the only 3 who are pretty sure outs.
05-15-2022 07:00 PM
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Milwaukee Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Which “bubble” teams make the cut in a 2x24 P2?
(05-14-2022 09:06 AM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  Then after a while Alabama and Ohio State will decide they just need to be in a P with each other and leave the P1 behind.

When that happens, they will be known, derisively, as the "P-P" conference. 03-shhhh
05-15-2022 10:39 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #18
RE: Which “bubble” teams make the cut in a 2x24 P2?
Miami is not close to the bubble. Their value is the highest. I voted for Arizona, mostly because the Pac-12 California schools plus UW and Oregon are more likely to vote to bring them along than ASU. But in reality ASU is the more valuable property as far as fans go. Similar with Utah over BYU.

ASU however is probably in the UCF category, a massive student body but not thought of in the same level. Politics could also favor Utah over the more valuable BYU property.

If it came to pass the Pac-12 "merge" group with the B1G would be Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA, UW, Oregon and CU. Arizona and Utah would be the political choices to bridge.

Of the ACC schools Notre Dame (if you count them ACC), UNC, UVa, Clemson, FSU and Miami are clearly the top values. It's not the past glory for Miami, it's the huge bank account, the identity of the city and the fact that the "State of Miami" is effectively a top 10 recruiting zone for students and athletes and a major market. That's too much to pass up.

The marginals people have getting in (besides Arizona and Utah) are Duke, Kansas and Virginia Tech; the first two are basketball schools, the latter falls in the same category as UCF, NC State and ASU (could say WSU but they have an isolation problem of geography which kills them). Pitt/WV combo would give you a metro, but then again Louisville and Cincy are similar.

I think we maybe undervalue Texas here. They could well wind up with a 3rd school.

I also think the clean geographic lines may not be followed. I could see the SEC grab Notre Dame and maybe even a Pitt or Syracuse over a borderline Southern school in a State they already control to increase their media package value. I could also see the B1G taking a southern school like Georgia Tech or Duke or a Miami (should the SEC foolishly pass on them) to extend their package value rather than a Utah or some other weak brand. When you get into the marginal brands, the market value and extending footprint could be the decisive factor. Drawing a bit from the other's turf is always worthwhile.
05-16-2022 01:47 PM
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Post: #19
RE: Which “bubble” teams make the cut in a 2x24 P2?
From the total revenues link. Revenues aren't everything, but they are very important.

001.) Ohio State University - $225,542,037
002.) The University of Texas at Austin - $191,737,849
003.) The University of Alabama - $189,242,298
004.) University of Georgia - $179,295,904
005.) University of Michigan-Ann Arbor - $168,244,643
006.) University of Notre Dame - $165,660,298
007.) Pennsylvania State University - $165,077,390
008.) Louisiana State University and Agricultural & Mechanical College - $160,460,476
009.) University of Oklahoma-Norman - $157,494,530
010.) Florida State University - $155,656,855

011.) Auburn University - $153,703,749
012.) University of Iowa - $145,095,544
013.) University of Wisconsin-Madison - $143,954,553
014.) Texas A & M University-College Station - $143,807,835
015.) University of Louisville - $140,867,112
016.) University of Florida - $139,287,811
017.) University of Kentucky - $138,492,743
018.) University of Washington-Seattle - $137,573,939
019.) University of South Carolina-Columbia - $137,094,212
020.) The University of Tennessee-Knoxville - $136,807,801

021.) Stanford University - $133,622,625
022.) University of Nebraska-Lincoln - $128,185,606
023.) University of Southern California - $127,801,994
024.) University of Arkansas - $124,297,763
025.) Michigan State University - $122,557,963
026.) Clemson University - $122,263,031
027.) Indiana University-Bloomington - $120,485,698
028.) University of California-Los Angeles - $119,391,431
029.) University of Miami - $115,360,535
030.) Texas Christian University - $114,393,484

031.) Northwestern University - $112,499,222
032.) University of Minnesota-Twin Cities - $110,225,936
033.) Duke University - $109,785,804
034.) University of Kansas - $108,187,369
035.) University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill - $107,842,595
036.) University of Virginia - $106,985,487
037.) Baylor University - $106,954,237
038.) University of California-Berkeley - $105,044,581
039.) University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - $103,558,802
040.) University of Oregon - $103,001,518

041.) Purdue University - $102,223,618
042.) Arizona State University-Tempe - $101,855,268
043.) Mississippi State University - $101,215,909
044.) University of Missouri-Columbia - $100,202,460
045.) University of Pittsburgh - $99,763,877
046.) Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University - $98,885,805
047.) University of Mississippi - $98,653,906
048.) University of Colorado Boulder - $95,592,693
05-16-2022 02:41 PM
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Post: #20
RE: Which “bubble” teams make the cut in a 2x24 P2?
Who isn't in the top 48?

049.) University of Arizona - $93,492,302
050.) West Virginia University - $92,884,748

051.) University of Maryland-College Park - $92,286,469
052.) Oklahoma State University - $89,925,224
053.) University of Utah - $89,893,359
054.) Rutgers University-New Brunswick - $89,840,300
055.) Vanderbilt University - $88,849,982
056.) North Carolina State University at Raleigh - $88,656,510
057.) Boston College - $87,003,060
058.) Kansas State University - $86,441,107
059.) Syracuse University - $86,415,599
060.) Georgia Institute of Technology - $86,407,600


061.) Wake Forest University - $84,486,746
062.) Texas Tech University - $81,233,518
063.) Oregon State University - $77,034,669
064.) Iowa State University - $76,724,435
065.) Brigham Young University-Provo - $75,233,084

066.) University of Connecticut - $74,974,097
067.) Washington State University - $69,307,483
068.) Southern Methodist University - $68,812,414
069.) University of Houston - $67,382,982
070.) University of Memphis - $61,254,516

071.) Temple University - $60,719,852
072.) University of South Florida - $59,531,111
073.) University of Central Florida - $59,265,539
074.) San Diego State University - $58,258,230
075.) Colorado State University-Fort Collins - $56,855,712
076.) University of Cincinnati - $52,971,327
(This post was last modified: 05-16-2022 02:43 PM by bullet.)
05-16-2022 02:42 PM
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