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Could Texas join the SEC before Oklahoma?
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quo vadis Online
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Could Texas join the SEC before Oklahoma?
I've assumed all along that whenever TX and OU join the SEC, it will be in lockstep.

But what is the basis for that assumption? I haven't really tested it.

"Attackcoog" made an insightful post today about how TX and OU could leave for the SEC in 2023 by just paying a $70m or so exit fee (each) to the Big 12, with the GOR respected by their home games remaining with the Bi12, actually its network partners, until 2025.

But, IMO that would still be a big pill to swallow. Even if the SEC agrees to pay TX or OU a reduced payout, say $35m, for each year they arrive early, that would cancel out the $70m exit fee to the Big 12, but unless I am borking the math would still mean that they effectively receive no conference monies for those two years: Pay the Big 12 $70m in exit fees, receive $70m from the SEC (if arriving in 2023, two years at $35m each), nets out to zero net conference income for those two years.

Here's why I am thinking they might arrive at different times: Texas seems to be awash in more money than OU. It might feel that absorbing those two lost revenue years are worth it to get in the SEC early. But for OU, the money pinch might be too great, such that they remain in the B12 for the two remaining years, or maybe join the SEC in 2024, saving itself $35m in exit fees.

So TX in the SEC for 2023, but OU in 2024 or 2025?
(This post was last modified: 05-13-2022 11:48 AM by quo vadis.)
05-13-2022 11:47 AM
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e-parade Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Could Texas join the SEC before Oklahoma?
It took me a sec after reading the title for my brain to finally decide on "...actually, that's a fair question. Hadn't thought about it before."

I'm thinking the answer is "no" though. I just don't think they're in a big enough rush to want to even temporarily be out that money. I do agree that if only one of them does decide to leave early that it would most likely be Texas though.
05-13-2022 01:04 PM
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Soobahk40050 Offline
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RE: Could Texas join the SEC before Oklahoma?
I'll say no, because doing so means they probably can't at each other easily.
05-13-2022 01:11 PM
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Pat125 Offline
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RE: Could Texas join the SEC before Oklahoma?
I also say no. They made a point of being announced together, I can’t see them entering the SEC at different times. I still say they go July 2023. I just can’t see that Bowlsby or his successor being hypocritical enough to allow three AAC teams come earlier than the he AAC bylaws allowed, and not agree to a fair settlement for next year. Time for everyone to move on!

NJTerp
(This post was last modified: 05-13-2022 01:38 PM by Pat125.)
05-13-2022 01:38 PM
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GoldenWarrior11 Offline
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RE: Could Texas join the SEC before Oklahoma?
Could they? Absolutely. Will they? No chance. If Texas were a top-5 program right now, which clearly they are not, I could see them spending to leave - in order to immediately capitalize on the association of being grouped with the SEC and, thus, having a greater chance of being a one-loss team in the CFP in the SEC than the Big 12. They will be in the SEC in short order, but would have needed to be competitively on-par with entering the SEC early (which they are not right now). They just had the #5 recruiting class, and appear strong next year so far too. They should be one of the top teams once they official begin in the SEC, IMO. We will see what Sark has learned from last year (and from USC/Washington) as well.
05-13-2022 01:45 PM
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AssKickingChicken Offline
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RE: Could Texas join the SEC before Oklahoma?
It would be more trouble than it’s worth.
05-13-2022 01:46 PM
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RE: Could Texas join the SEC before Oklahoma?
(05-13-2022 01:45 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Could they? Absolutely. Will they? No chance. If Texas were a top-5 program right now, which clearly they are not, I could see them spending to leave - in order to immediately capitalize on the association of being grouped with the SEC and, thus, having a greater chance of being a one-loss team in the CFP in the SEC than the Big 12. They will be in the SEC in short order, but would have needed to be competitively on-par with entering the SEC early (which they are not right now). They just had the #5 recruiting class, and appear strong next year so far too. They should be one of the top teams once they official begin in the SEC, IMO. We will see what Sark has learned from last year (and from USC/Washington) as well.

They lost to KU.

Better to be awful in the SEC than awful in the Big 12.

Whereas if they’re good, in a 4 team playoff it is better to be in the Big 12. Ask several SEC schools if they think they’d have a playoff spot or two more if in OU’s shoes.
05-13-2022 02:26 PM
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CatsClaw1 Offline
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RE: Could Texas join the SEC before Oklahoma?
(05-13-2022 01:38 PM)Pat125 Wrote:  I also say no. They made a point of being announced together, I can’t see them entering the SEC at different times. I still say they go July 2023. I just can’t see that Bowlsby or his successor being hypocritical enough to allow three AAC teams come earlier than the he AAC bylaws allowed, and not agree to a fair settlement for next year. Time for everyone to move on!

NJTerp

Sorry, you are 100% wrong, it is not hypocritical at all, the AAC schools paid a much higher fee, or will pay a higher exit fee, than was is in the bylaws. The Big 12 is actually allowing OU and Texas to leave without raising the exit fees so they're being treated better than the AAC schools. It just so happens that the Big 12 exit fee is higher than the AAC's and they also have a GORs. Besides, Bowlsby and the Big 12 shouldn't care what the AAC decides, they're not beholden to their decisions.
(This post was last modified: 05-13-2022 02:50 PM by CatsClaw1.)
05-13-2022 02:49 PM
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Wahoowa84 Offline
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RE: Could Texas join the SEC before Oklahoma?
Could they…Yes
Will they…No

In your scenario, 1) the SEC will not give a media share payout to Texas if their home game media rights belong to the B12 and 2) the SEC will not schedule teams to play in Austin when only the B12 benefits.

If Texas wants to leave early, they’ll have to make a very enticing financial offer to the B12. For now, the B12 needs UT football for its media contract (and help in negotiations for a new deal)…and to build the finances & brands of other B12 schools in road games.
(This post was last modified: 05-13-2022 03:56 PM by Wahoowa84.)
05-13-2022 03:55 PM
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RE: Could Texas join the SEC before Oklahoma?
Could they? Yes. Would they? No. They've been working with Oklahoma (except for Boren's catastrophic Pac 12 flirtation) as a team since 1994 when they formed the Big 12. That was the UT and OU ADs setting that up. They are fierce rivals on the field, but they are partners in business.
05-13-2022 04:27 PM
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johnintx Offline
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RE: Could Texas join the SEC before Oklahoma?
(05-13-2022 04:27 PM)bullet Wrote:  Could they? Yes. Would they? No. They've been working with Oklahoma (except for Boren's catastrophic Pac 12 flirtation) as a team since 1994 when they formed the Big 12. That was the UT and OU ADs setting that up. They are fierce rivals on the field, but they are partners in business.

Well said.

Reminds me of the Tom & Jerry cartoons. In the old ones, Tom & Jerry hated each other. They were bitter rivals, similar to OU and Texas. But, in the newer ones made in the 1970's, Tom & Jerry were friends, similar to the OU-UT business relationship. In business, OU and Texas are BFFs with mutual interests.

I think we're going to the SEC in 2023. The upcoming season is the Big 12 farewell tour.
05-13-2022 05:24 PM
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Pat125 Offline
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RE: Could Texas join the SEC before Oklahoma?
(05-13-2022 02:49 PM)CatsClaw1 Wrote:  
(05-13-2022 01:38 PM)Pat125 Wrote:  I also say no. They made a point of being announced together, I can’t see them entering the SEC at different times. I still say they go July 2023. I just can’t see that Bowlsby or his successor being hypocritical enough to allow three AAC teams come earlier than the he AAC bylaws allowed, and not agree to a fair settlement for next year. Time for everyone to move on!

NJTerp

Sorry, you are 100% wrong, it is not hypocritical at all, the AAC schools paid a much higher fee, or will pay a higher exit fee, than was is in the bylaws. The Big 12 is actually allowing OU and Texas to leave without raising the exit fees so they're being treated better than the AAC schools. It just so happens that the Big 12 exit fee is higher than the AAC's and they also have a GORs. Besides, Bowlsby and the Big 12 shouldn't care what the AAC decides, they're not beholden to their decisions.

Unless I missed something, Bowlsby made it clear that OU and Texas are stuck in the Big 12 until 2025, with the clear implication that he will soak them if they leave early.

If Bowlsby didn’t play the self-righteous moral superiority crap cards, I might have agreed with you. But he did and should have insisted the three schools he poached should have followed the rules. Just because Blowsby was holding the better hand does not exonerate him from being a super hypocrite. But that’s okay. Aresco was also up to the self-righteous hypocrisy crap as well. At least he wants to move on.

NJTerp
(This post was last modified: 05-13-2022 07:00 PM by Pat125.)
05-13-2022 06:35 PM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #13
RE: Could Texas join the SEC before Oklahoma?
(05-13-2022 04:27 PM)bullet Wrote:  Could they? Yes. Would they? No. They've been working with Oklahoma (except for Boren's catastrophic Pac 12 flirtation) as a team since 1994 when they formed the Big 12. That was the UT and OU ADs setting that up. They are fierce rivals on the field, but they are partners in business.

I totally agree. But I'm not sure OU would object to TX going early even if OU felt they couldn't.
05-13-2022 09:12 PM
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RE: Could Texas join the SEC before Oklahoma?
I think OU and TX are too tied together at the hip at this point. They’ve been in lock step on everything for awhile now. They are coming as a pair.
05-13-2022 10:58 PM
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