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If we end up with a P2, what’s the post season look like?
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #1
If we end up with a P2, what’s the post season look like?
Let’s say we end up with 2 24-member mega conferences as some have suggested could be our future reality. What does the post season look like?

Would the P2 simply make an agreement to each conduct their own conference playoffs and then match their champs in a collegiate “Super Bowl” or do we have a playoff that admits schools from outside the P2 power structure?
05-12-2022 04:50 PM
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Milwaukee Online
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Post: #2
RE: If we end up with a P2, what’s the post season look like?
(05-12-2022 04:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Let’s say we end up with 2 24-member mega conferences as some have suggested could be our future reality. What does the post season look like?

Would the P2 simply make an agreement to each conduct their own conference playoffs and then match their champs in a collegiate “Super Bowl?” or do we have a playoff that admits schools from outside the P2 power structure?

2*24=48 teams, but there will be 69 P5 programs, so a "Super Bowl" that would leave 21 teams out in the cold seems unlikely.

It also seems unlikely that 60 G5/indy teams would be kept entirely out of the playoffs.

Any kind of arrangement that would keep more than 50 teams entirely out of the playoffs could run the risk of turning the non-P5 "league" into a competitor. Experience has shown that sometimes, a second-tier league can develop its own niche audience that can grow over time until it becomes more and more competitive with the first-tier league (as in the NFL vis a vis the AFL of the 1960s).

Also, a new CFB league with only 48 teams could cause a segment of viewers who are fans of other teams to become disenchanted or bored with the lack of variety and to tune out.

The G5 football audience seems to be growing, or to have growth potential - - at least in view of networks such as ESPN which have begun to invest heavily in G5 conference expansion.

A 48-team "mega-P5 league" could also force the 21 P5 programs that would be left out to work out some kind of mutually-beneficial cooperative arrangement with the 60 G5/indy programs.

Another possibility is that they might opt to split the 21 teams geographically into two conferences (with 10 and 11 teams), and to add the 11 best G5 football schools, thus reconstituting themselves into two 16-team power conferences or divisions that would, as a group, compete with the 48-team P2 mega-league.

For example, something like this:

West: Arizona, AZ State, Cal, Washington St., Oregon St., Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas Tech, TCU + SDSU, CSU, Fresno St., Utah St., SMU, & Boise State.

East: Duke, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, Indiana, Purdue, Missouri, Rutgers, Maryland, NC State, Virginia, Mississipi State + Memphis, USF, Temple, Tulane, & Louisiana.


Such a realignment would probably turn the G5 into a G4 with the CUSA teams moving into the MWC and AAC.

There would be two mega conferences, two (Eastern and Western) power conferences, and four non-power conferences. They could hold a 12-team playoff for all 8 conferences, or the "P2" mega-conferences and the other six conferences could hold playoffs of their own. Chances are that both sets of playoff games would get high levels of viewership.


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(This post was last modified: 05-12-2022 05:34 PM by Milwaukee.)
05-12-2022 05:11 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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RE: If we end up with a P2, what’s the post season look like?
(05-12-2022 05:11 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  
(05-12-2022 04:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Let’s say we end up with 2 24-member mega conferences as some have suggested could be our future reality. What does the post season look like?

Would the P2 simply make an agreement to each conduct their own conference playoffs and then match their champs in a collegiate “Super Bowl?” or do we have a playoff that admits schools from outside the P2 power structure?

2*24=48 teams, but there will be 69 P5 programs, so a "Super Bowl" that would leave 21 teams out in the cold seems unlikely.

It also seems unlikely that 60 G5/indy teams would be kept entirely out of the playoffs.

Any kind of arrangement that would keep more than 50 teams entirely out of the playoffs could run the risk of turning the non-P5 "league" into a competitor. Experience has shown that sometimes, a second-tier league can develop its own niche audience that can grow over time until it becomes more and more competitive with the first-tier league (as in the NFL vis a vis the AFL of the 1960s).

Also, a new CFB league with only 48 teams would cause a segment of viewers who are fans of other teams to become disenchanted or bored with the lack of variety and to tune out.

The G5 football audience seems to be growing, or to have growth potential - - at least in view of networks such as ESPN which have begun to invest heavily in G5 conference expansion.

.

I’m not saying they’d be left without a playoff, they’d simply be on a lower tier than the breakaway P2.
05-12-2022 05:13 PM
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Post: #4
RE: If we end up with a P2, what’s the post season look like?
I think the first iteration would be 12 team CFP, 5 bids each to the P2.

Antitrust conferences have access to two bids: 1 bid to P5 leftover conference, plus a the overall wildcard. What is now known as G5 gets access to overall wildcard or Leftover's bid if the top G5 is ranked higher than Leftover Champ

That is arguably better access to all than what we have now.

BIG and SEC has up to 6 spots for 24 teams, compared to current 2, maybe 3 spots for 14 teams. Better access than the proposed 6+6 or 6+5+1.

Leftovers have basically a 1 spot for maybe 20 teams, but previously had to go through elite programs. Many more schools can dream of having a season that yields a berth, and technically 2 spots are possible. Beats being left out

G5 is more or less the same as now. Beats being left out
(This post was last modified: 05-12-2022 05:27 PM by Big 12 fan too.)
05-12-2022 05:26 PM
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Post: #5
RE: If we end up with a P2, what’s the post season look like?
(05-12-2022 05:26 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  I think the first iteration would be 12 team CFP, 5 bids each to the P2.

Antitrust conferences have access to two bids: 1 bid to P5 leftover conference, plus a the overall wildcard. What is now known as G5 gets access to overall wildcard or Leftover's bid if the top G5 is ranked higher than Leftover Champ

That is arguably better access to all than what we have now.

BIG and SEC has up to 6 spots for 24 teams, compared to current 2, maybe 3 spots for 14 teams. Better access than the proposed 6+6 or 6+5+1.

Leftovers have basically a 1 spot for maybe 20 teams, but previously had to go through elite programs. Many more schools can dream of having a season that yields a berth, and technically 2 spots are possible. Beats being left out

G5 is more or less the same as now. Beats being left out

Each P2 has 4 divisions of 6. Their 8 division champs are in and the top 2 from each is seeded 1-4 and has a bye. 5-8 are seeded and play the 4 division champs from the composite tweener conference.

It's equal access, just not equal seeding.
05-12-2022 05:52 PM
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YNot Offline
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Post: #6
RE: If we end up with a P2, what’s the post season look like?
I'd rather see CFP 16 that includes six P2 division winners, three bids from the B12/PAC/ACC, one G5 and six wild cards. Round 1 at home field sites.

Quarterfinals in Atlanta + Arlington and Indianapolis + Las Vegas with semifinal games in the Sugar Bowl and Rose Bowls. Winners play for the Natty.
05-12-2022 06:09 PM
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Milwaukee Online
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Post: #7
RE: If we end up with a P2, what’s the post season look like?
(05-12-2022 05:52 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(05-12-2022 05:26 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  I think the first iteration would be 12 team CFP, 5 bids each to the P2.

Antitrust conferences have access to two bids: 1 bid to P5 leftover conference, plus a the overall wildcard. What is now known as G5 gets access to overall wildcard or Leftover's bid if the top G5 is ranked higher than Leftover Champ

That is arguably better access to all than what we have now.

BIG and SEC has up to 6 spots for 24 teams, compared to current 2, maybe 3 spots for 14 teams. Better access than the proposed 6+6 or 6+5+1.

Leftovers have basically a 1 spot for maybe 20 teams, but previously had to go through elite programs. Many more schools can dream of having a season that yields a berth, and technically 2 spots are possible. Beats being left out

G5 is more or less the same as now. Beats being left out

Each P2 has 4 divisions of 6. Their 8 division champs are in and the top 2 from each is seeded 1-4 and has a bye. 5-8 are seeded and play the 4 division champs from the composite tweener conference.

It's equal access, just not equal seeding.

In that case, the "composite tweener conference" would presumably be made up of the 21 remaining P5 teams plus 3 (e.g., CSU, Memphis, & SMU), and the rest of the G5 would be left out of the equation.

Given the amount that ESPN has invested in the AAC, SBC, and MAC, it might be possible that they would fight for the G5 to get one playoff spot. Otherwise, the G5 would probably hold their own separate playoffs.

One way for them to "jazz up" a G5 playoff series might be to have a playoff series between the 8 most highly-ranked teams.

Based on last season's Sagarin ratings, the first round games in such an 8-team non-P5 playoff series (not including the 4 teams heading to the Big 12) might have been:

Quarterfinals:

#28 Boise St. vs. #53 San Diego St.
#37 Louisiana vs. #51 Fresno St.
#38 N. Dakota St. vs. #50 SMU
#40 Air Force vs. #46 WKU

Round two, if the more highly-ranked teams were to win all their games:

Semifinals:

Boise St. vs. Air Force
Louisiana vs. North Dakota St.

The semifinals and finals would be exciting games, and viewership would probably be pretty respectable, considering the fact that N. Dakota State has averaged well over 1 million viewers in their recent FCS playoff games, and that 2022 bowl games such as Air Force-Louisiana had 2.73 million viewers.
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(This post was last modified: 05-12-2022 06:46 PM by Milwaukee.)
05-12-2022 06:39 PM
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Post: #8
RE: If we end up with a P2, what’s the post season look like?
(05-12-2022 05:13 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(05-12-2022 05:11 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  
(05-12-2022 04:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Let’s say we end up with 2 24-member mega conferences as some have suggested could be our future reality. What does the post season look like?

Would the P2 simply make an agreement to each conduct their own conference playoffs and then match their champs in a collegiate “Super Bowl?” or do we have a playoff that admits schools from outside the P2 power structure?

2*24=48 teams, but there will be 69 P5 programs, so a "Super Bowl" that would leave 21 teams out in the cold seems unlikely.

It also seems unlikely that 60 G5/indy teams would be kept entirely out of the playoffs.

Any kind of arrangement that would keep more than 50 teams entirely out of the playoffs could run the risk of turning the non-P5 "league" into a competitor. Experience has shown that sometimes, a second-tier league can develop its own niche audience that can grow over time until it becomes more and more competitive with the first-tier league (as in the NFL vis a vis the AFL of the 1960s).

Also, a new CFB league with only 48 teams would cause a segment of viewers who are fans of other teams to become disenchanted or bored with the lack of variety and to tune out.

The G5 football audience seems to be growing, or to have growth potential - - at least in view of networks such as ESPN which have begun to invest heavily in G5 conference expansion.

.

I’m not saying they’d be left without a playoff, they’d simply be on a lower tier than the breakaway P2.

My thought:

If a real breakaway happnens (and this is a big IF), then the playoff will be only for the breakaway teams. Any non P2 team playing the playoff would be like a FCS team playing for FBS playoff and a college team playing for the NFL playoff.
05-12-2022 06:45 PM
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CatsClaw1 Offline
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Post: #9
RE: If we end up with a P2, what’s the post season look like?
(05-12-2022 04:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Let’s say we end up with 2 24-member mega conferences as some have suggested could be our future reality. What does the post season look like?

Would the P2 simply make an agreement to each conduct their own conference playoffs and then match their champs in a collegiate “Super Bowl” or do we have a playoff that admits schools from outside the P2 power structure?

It's going to look horrendous. If I wanted that setup I would watch pro football. I like having different conferences with different cultures and styles and personalities. A P2 would suffocate and kill college football.
05-12-2022 07:10 PM
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Crayton Offline
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RE: If we end up with a P2, what’s the post season look like?
48 teams? A 24-team playoff. That may include reducing the length of the regular season if only to "fit" it between the hot Summer and the NFL playoffs.

Teams outside? I think the Super League would benefit from having a "closed" regular season, so we are not relying on polls but on WINS. But the league could be "opened" each off-season, giving an opportunity for, say, 12 "independent" teams to compete within next year's Super League. These teams would have to play the requisite number of Super League games, say, 10. Teams like USC and ND can buy there way into an independent spot, but the Super League may foster a positive relationship with FBS by allowing some of those independent spots to be earned through a minor pro/rel system. Heck, not many Pac12/Big12/ACC teams need a permanent spot, so the "Power 2" could start this as soon as the NCAA is gone without having to first expand to 24 apiece.

Also think the Super League will continue to allow games against the likes of Akron. It keeps the money flowing downhill to FBS. Naturally those games will be almost purely exhibition, as they will not count toward Super League Playoff qualification.

Playoff format? Don't think they'd go "American vs. National" but would do a national 1v16 style bracket. Some of the intrigue of Bowl Games is that they are between teams who may not have played each other in the last 20 years. Also think they could stage mid-week primetime games for the first two rounds, when they'd otherwise have 8 games cannibalizing the Saturday TV audience.
05-12-2022 07:23 PM
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Post: #11
RE: If we end up with a P2, what’s the post season look like?
(05-12-2022 04:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Let’s say we end up with 2 24-member mega conferences as some have suggested could be our future reality. What does the post season look like?

Would the P2 simply make an agreement to each conduct their own conference playoffs and then match their champs in a collegiate “Super Bowl” or do we have a playoff that admits schools from outside the P2 power structure?

This may happen even if the conferences do not expand any further. Consolidation of power happened even without any other moves... I wouldn't be surprised if the B1G and SEC opt out of the playoff when the current agreement ends and the two conf champs simply play each other.
05-12-2022 07:52 PM
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Milwaukee Online
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Post: #12
RE: If we end up with a P2, what’s the post season look like?
(05-12-2022 06:45 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  
(05-12-2022 05:13 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(05-12-2022 05:11 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  
(05-12-2022 04:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Let’s say we end up with 2 24-member mega conferences as some have suggested could be our future reality. What does the post season look like?

Would the P2 simply make an agreement to each conduct their own conference playoffs and then match their champs in a collegiate “Super Bowl?” or do we have a playoff that admits schools from outside the P2 power structure?

2*24=48 teams, but there will be 69 P5 programs, so a "Super Bowl" that would leave 21 teams out in the cold seems unlikely.

It also seems unlikely that 60 G5/indy teams would be kept entirely out of the playoffs.

Any kind of arrangement that would keep more than 50 teams entirely out of the playoffs could run the risk of turning the non-P5 "league" into a competitor. Experience has shown that sometimes, a second-tier league can develop its own niche audience that can grow over time until it becomes more and more competitive with the first-tier league (as in the NFL vis a vis the AFL of the 1960s).

Also, a new CFB league with only 48 teams would cause a segment of viewers who are fans of other teams to become disenchanted or bored with the lack of variety and to tune out.

The G5 football audience seems to be growing, or to have growth potential - - at least in view of networks such as ESPN which have begun to invest heavily in G5 conference expansion.

.

I’m not saying they’d be left without a playoff, they’d simply be on a lower tier than the breakaway P2.

My thought:

If a real breakaway happnens (and this is a big IF), then the playoff will be only for the breakaway teams. Any non P2 team playing the playoff would be like a FCS team playing for FBS playoff and a college team playing for the NFL playoff.

True, but the "p2" would be holding their playoff in their own little sandbox.03-idea

With continuing FBS expansion, the vast majority of (~ twice as many) teams would be holding an entirely separate playoff, and with ~ twice as many fan bases and markets, their viewership would most likely grow over time. Eventually, the breakaway teams could find themselves losing audience share to the competing, larger FBS league.

The way the networks see things, more is better, and the non-p2-league would have more teams, more cities, more markets, and more fan bases.

Eventually, the p2 might realize that it was a mistake of hubris to break away.
05-12-2022 09:41 PM
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RE: If we end up with a P2, what’s the post season look like?
(05-12-2022 09:41 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  With continuing FBS expansion, the vast majority of (~ twice as many) teams would be holding an entirely separate playoff, and with ~ twice as many fan bases and markets, their viewership would most likely grow over time. Eventually, the breakaway teams could find themselves losing audience share to the competing, larger FBS league.

The way the networks see things, more is better, and the non-p2-league would have more teams, more cities, more markets, and more fan bases.

Eventually, the p2 might realize that it was a mistake of hubris to break away.

The FCS has a larger playoff than the FBS, but that has no bearing on TV ratings, conference prestige, etc. If the B1G and SEC carve out their own P2, ratings and attendance would likely fall for the rest of the FBS.
05-12-2022 10:26 PM
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