(05-13-2022 07:21 PM)BatonRougeEscapee Wrote:  What is obvious is that NOTHING is going to happen until a critical mass void the GOR or someone applies for membership to another conference. Conference leadership want to keep their jobs. They aren't going to dissolve anything. No one is going to invite an ACC school with an intact GOR with 14 years remaining. Sitting around complaining won't achieve much. The biggest complainers need to step up and organize that airport meeting or announce intentions to leave the conference. The alternative is just to remain whiny witches.

That's IMO an overlooked issue here, on a lot of issues, not just GORs.

We think of the schools that make up the membership as "the conference". But the reality is that for many conferences, schools come and schools go. What remains is the administrative edifice, and as you say, those admins do not want to lose their jobs.

So in the case of the ACC, the obstacles to dissolving the GOR are (a) the schools that feel the GOR helps them more than hurts them, namely the low-value schools, and (b) the conference administration, which could face job losses if the conference was weakened or dissolved.

(05-13-2022 06:52 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 03:28 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 03:18 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  How much longer does Notre Dame stay?


The ACC has used the CFP Expansion as a political ploy to get them to join. The end result was a disaster. That can't be a healthy relationship.

14 years give or take. Then they can become conference mates with Butler.

As soon as the ACC implodes.

Then they will become members of the $100 million a year club with Ohio State and North Carolina, not Butler.

Too bad that Notre Dame is contracted thru 2036 with the ACC.

(05-13-2022 09:38 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 07:21 PM)BatonRougeEscapee Wrote:  What is obvious is that NOTHING is going to happen until a critical mass void the GOR or someone applies for membership to another conference. Conference leadership want to keep their jobs. They aren't going to dissolve anything. No one is going to invite an ACC school with an intact GOR with 14 years remaining. Sitting around complaining won't achieve much. The biggest complainers need to step up and organize that airport meeting or announce intentions to leave the conference. The alternative is just to remain whiny witches.

That's IMO an overlooked issue here, on a lot of issues, not just GORs.

We think of the schools that make up the membership as "the conference". But the reality is that for many conferences, schools come and schools go. What remains is the administrative edifice, and as you say, those admins do not want to lose their jobs.

So in the case of the ACC, the obstacles to dissolving the GOR are (a) the schools that feel the GOR helps them more than hurts them, namely the low-value schools, and (b) the conference administration, which could face job losses if the conference was weakened or dissolved.

a.) these schools are pretty motivated to sneak ahead of others and use their dissolution vote to get security. They cannot risk being passive and being left out, or becoming free agents at the end of GOR. Every year that passes and more top schools willing to dissolve, the less leverage they have
b) The conference admins are rather feckless in this era of realignment. No school is factoring in job loss of conference overhead into these decisions. And the dynamics too transparent for the conference administration to have any ability to shape the opinions. All they can do is obstruct by making commutation covert

(05-13-2022 09:51 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 06:52 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 03:28 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 03:18 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  How much longer does Notre Dame stay?


The ACC has used the CFP Expansion as a political ploy to get them to join. The end result was a disaster. That can't be a healthy relationship.

14 years give or take. Then they can become conference mates with Butler.

As soon as the ACC implodes.

Then they will become members of the $100 million a year club with Ohio State and North Carolina, not Butler.

Too bad that Notre Dame is contracted thru 2036 with the ACC.

I doubt ND is worried about it. They’ll be out within 5 years.

(05-13-2022 09:38 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  So in the case of the ACC, the obstacles to dissolving the GOR are (a) the schools that feel the GOR helps them more than hurts them, namely the low-value schools, and (b) the conference administration, which could face job losses if the conference was weakened or dissolved.

Are either of those obstacles enough to stop high-powered and deep-pocketed institutions from fully pursuing a $40M annual pay raise?

(05-13-2022 09:58 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 09:51 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 06:52 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 03:28 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 03:18 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  How much longer does Notre Dame stay?


The ACC has used the CFP Expansion as a political ploy to get them to join. The end result was a disaster. That can't be a healthy relationship.

14 years give or take. Then they can become conference mates with Butler.

As soon as the ACC implodes.

Then they will become members of the $100 million a year club with Ohio State and North Carolina, not Butler.

Too bad that Notre Dame is contracted thru 2036 with the ACC.

I doubt ND is worried about it. They’ll be out within 5 years.

Hopefully we continue to stir up angst and put pressure and they boot us out.

I want off the Titanic.

(05-13-2022 11:41 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 09:58 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 09:51 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 06:52 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 03:28 PM)esayem Wrote:  14 years give or take. Then they can become conference mates with Butler.

As soon as the ACC implodes.

Then they will become members of the $100 million a year club with Ohio State and North Carolina, not Butler.

Too bad that Notre Dame is contracted thru 2036 with the ACC.

I doubt ND is worried about it. They’ll be out within 5 years.

Hopefully we continue to stir up angst and put pressure and they boot us out.

I want off the Titanic.

The ACC meetings should be fun.

I think there are already nearly enough votes for dissolution, just a matter of getting the right schools to see the end is near.

What happens if FSU, ND, Clemson, Miami etc all make “off hand” remarks that they’re out or headed to the SEC as soon as the GOR is expired, or TBD? That’s basically what they’ve already alluded to.

ESPN/SEC won’t facilitate until they get their top targets. But once it is known 3-4 top schools are out at the end, and the conference is done in 2036, it becomes less palatable to see other schools making $40-$60 million more.

One bad basketball season by Duke or UNC would do it too.

(05-14-2022 12:13 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 11:41 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 09:58 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 09:51 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 06:52 PM)TerryD Wrote:  As soon as the ACC implodes.

Then they will become members of the $100 million a year club with Ohio State and North Carolina, not Butler.

Too bad that Notre Dame is contracted thru 2036 with the ACC.

I doubt ND is worried about it. They’ll be out within 5 years.

Hopefully we continue to stir up angst and put pressure and they boot us out.

I want off the Titanic.

The ACC meetings should be fun.

I think there are already nearly enough votes for dissolution, just a matter of getting the right schools to see the end is near.

What happens if FSU, ND, Clemson, Miami etc all make “off hand” remarks that they’re out or headed to the SEC as soon as the GOR is expired, or TBD? That’s basically what they’ve already alluded to.

ESPN/SEC won’t facilitate until they get their top targets. But once it is known 3-4 top schools are out at the end, and the conference is done in 2036, it becomes less palatable to see other schools making $40-$60 million more.

One bad basketball season by Duke or UNC would do it too.

Bring in Mark Emmert to be the hatchet man or run a fire sale. He wouldn't have to do anything but take the blame.

(05-14-2022 12:13 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 11:41 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 09:58 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 09:51 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 06:52 PM)TerryD Wrote:  As soon as the ACC implodes.

Then they will become members of the $100 million a year club with Ohio State and North Carolina, not Butler.

Too bad that Notre Dame is contracted thru 2036 with the ACC.

I doubt ND is worried about it. They’ll be out within 5 years.

Hopefully we continue to stir up angst and put pressure and they boot us out.

I want off the Titanic.

The ACC meetings should be fun.

I think there are already nearly enough votes for dissolution, just a matter of getting the right schools to see the end is near.

What happens if FSU, ND, Clemson, Miami etc all make “off hand” remarks that they’re out or headed to the SEC as soon as the GOR is expired, or TBD? That’s basically what they’ve already alluded to.

ESPN/SEC won’t facilitate until they get their top targets. But once it is known 3-4 top schools are out at the end, and the conference is done in 2036, it becomes less palatable to see other schools making $40-$60 million more.

One bad basketball season by Duke or UNC would do it too.

At this point the SEC would take Notre Dame, but Clemson, FSU, and Miami especially are far from sure fire additions. The B1G might eventually add Duke, UNC, Virginia, and GT but the idea that the other ACC schools can just wish their way into the SEC is absurd. ESPN has their rights tied up for another 14 years and they aren’t going to tank their investment or voluntarily agree to pay Clemson, Miami, or FSU another $40m a year for no good reason. The ACC will take WVU, Cincy, and UCF from the Big XII if and when they lose schools, not the other way around. The rah rah BS about how great the new backfilled Big XII is amusing, but every single school in the league would accept an ACC or PAC-12 invite over remaining in a basketball Frankenstein conference.

(05-14-2022 12:30 AM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  

(05-14-2022 12:13 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 11:41 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 09:58 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 09:51 PM)XLance Wrote:  Too bad that Notre Dame is contracted thru 2036 with the ACC.

I doubt ND is worried about it. They’ll be out within 5 years.

Hopefully we continue to stir up angst and put pressure and they boot us out.

I want off the Titanic.

The ACC meetings should be fun.

I think there are already nearly enough votes for dissolution, just a matter of getting the right schools to see the end is near.

What happens if FSU, ND, Clemson, Miami etc all make “off hand” remarks that they’re out or headed to the SEC as soon as the GOR is expired, or TBD? That’s basically what they’ve already alluded to.

ESPN/SEC won’t facilitate until they get their top targets. But once it is known 3-4 top schools are out at the end, and the conference is done in 2036, it becomes less palatable to see other schools making $40-$60 million more.

One bad basketball season by Duke or UNC would do it too.

At this point the SEC would take Notre Dame, but Clemson, FSU, and Miami especially are far from sure fire additions. The B1G might eventually add Duke, UNC, Virginia, and GT but the idea that the other ACC schools can just wish their way into the SEC is absurd. ESPN has their rights tied up for another 14 years and they aren’t going to tank their investment or voluntarily agree to pay Clemson, Miami, or FSU another $40m a year for no good reason. The ACC will take WVU, Cincy, and UCF from the Big XII if and when they lose schools, not the other way around. The rah rah BS about how great the new backfilled Big XII is amusing, but every single school in the league would accept an ACC or PAC-12 invite over remaining in a basketball Frankenstein conference.

The top ACC schools are worth more if in a top conference like the SEC.

Even with the top schools, the ACC is a tweener conference like the Big 12, but incredibly unstable. Listen to the ADs. It’s dead as soon as possible.

So no Big 12 school will go to the ACC when it’s top ADs have announced they’re out ASAP. Even if they wanted to, it would require ESPN opening up the deal and paying more to 16+ schools. Why do that when you could just pay the top schools more in the SEC?

I hate to see it, but the ACC is a zombie. It’s either dissolution or P5 rump status for 14 years, a $500 million hole for schools compared to what used to be their regional peers.

What an incredibly bad deal you all signed

(05-14-2022 12:55 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  I hate to see it, but the ACC is a zombie. It’s either dissolution or P5 rump status for 14 years, a $500 million hole for schools compared to what used to be their regional peers.

What an incredibly bad deal you all signed

The ACC should've hired Mike Aresco.

Aresco only agreed to a 12-year deal for his league; and it ended up being the saving grace of his membership - after the Big 12 took Houston, UCF, and Cincinnati (and UConn departed).

Say what you will... But those departing teams were the driving force for the biggest ratings on ABC/ESPN, and subsequently the Billion-dollar contract. Houston with their Peach Bowl run and wins over OU (with Mayfield) and Louisville (with Jackson) that followed; and then UCF and Cincinnati with their multiple undefeated seasons - and multiple New Years Day bowls (and a CFP4 to boot). In the grand scheme of things, UCF-Cincinnati-Houston were worth multiples of their 7m$ shares in that (1B$) contract, and for the sake of comity, their pieces of the revenue pie were more than cut in half so every team was on an equal footing.

It ended up working out for them because they got their golden tickets. Nevertheless, Aresco managed to keep Temple, Tulsa, Tulane, ECU, USF, SMU, Memphis, Navy, and Wichita State at their agreed upon ESPN rates (without Cincinnati, UCF, Houston, UConn). On top of that, the new AAC programs are getting paid significantly more than they were getting previously, and they'll share in the ESPN/ABC exposure that the 2018 AAC roster negotiated with ESPN.

That's transformational for those new programs, and they will eat that cheese for the next decade (even though Houston-UCF-Cincinnati were cited in the contract as the foundational pieces of the deal!!).

Aresco has earned his salary and then some. He is also negotiating a stiff buyout to profit off the 'Big 12 three' even more.

Compare that to the quicksand the ACC is in.

The ACC agreed to a ****ton more years than Aresco agreed to - and now it's a straight jacket for the teams that want so badly to get out but they can't.

(05-14-2022 02:46 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  The ACC should've hired Mike Aresco.

The same Mike Aresco who watched Cincinnati, Houston and UCF announce a few months back they were leaving his league for the wobbly Big XII?

And, in the years before, watched helplessly as Rutgers, Louisville and Connecticut all bailed for greener pastures.

That Mike Aresco?

(05-13-2022 09:55 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 09:38 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 07:21 PM)BatonRougeEscapee Wrote:  What is obvious is that NOTHING is going to happen until a critical mass void the GOR or someone applies for membership to another conference. Conference leadership want to keep their jobs. They aren't going to dissolve anything. No one is going to invite an ACC school with an intact GOR with 14 years remaining. Sitting around complaining won't achieve much. The biggest complainers need to step up and organize that airport meeting or announce intentions to leave the conference. The alternative is just to remain whiny witches.

That's IMO an overlooked issue here, on a lot of issues, not just GORs.

We think of the schools that make up the membership as "the conference". But the reality is that for many conferences, schools come and schools go. What remains is the administrative edifice, and as you say, those admins do not want to lose their jobs.

So in the case of the ACC, the obstacles to dissolving the GOR are (a) the schools that feel the GOR helps them more than hurts them, namely the low-value schools, and (b) the conference administration, which could face job losses if the conference was weakened or dissolved.

a.) these schools are pretty motivated to sneak ahead of others and use their dissolution vote to get security. They cannot risk being passive and being left out, or becoming free agents at the end of GOR. Every year that passes and more top schools willing to dissolve, the less leverage they have
b) The conference admins are rather feckless in this era of realignment. No school is factoring in job loss of conference overhead into these decisions. And the dynamics too transparent for the conference administration to have any ability to shape the opinions. All they can do is obstruct by making commutation covert

I agree that no school is factoring in job losses by conference admins in to their thinking, but I believe conference admins have influence, they don't just do what the schools want them to do, they help shape policy. They are hired to help shape policy.

So IMO, conference admins can inject their interests in two ways - before a GOR is signed, by encouraging schools to vote for a GOR on the grounds it benefits the schools, when it also benefits their job security, and (b) if schools are debating ending a GOR, they can influence the debate by talking up the benefits of the current stability.

Here’s my thoughts at this point:

ESPN taps the 8 schools they want for the Super SEC and tells them they’ve got their golden tickets and they can vote yes on a dissolution vote.

ESPN then turns around and starts tapping you schools that have little hope of an SEC/Big 10 invite (WF, BC, Cuse) and basically tells them it’s happening one way or another, it’s just a matter of when and if they go ahead and vote to blow up the league that ESPN has already secured them Big 12 membership and they will guarantee them the same revenue they’d get in the ACC through the end of 2037.

The last 4 are then in a position to either join the Big 10 if the Big 10 wants them (ND and maybe a few other might get a look) or go to the Big 12

The Mouse totally has the power to pull the whole thing down if they want to.

It's fun to mock John Swofford and his pennies-on-the-dollar deal that would send even the ACC's best brands into financial hell were they to hang around for an entire generation as the contract stipulates.

But any media rights agreement is always vulnerable to the shifting sands

Ultimately, ESPN and FOX are going to get most of what they want — regardless of how much it shakes up the college sports landscape — because the checks they're writing now are just that big.

(05-14-2022 07:29 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(05-14-2022 02:46 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  The ACC should've hired Mike Aresco.

The same Mike Aresco who watched Cincinnati, Houston and UCF announce a few months back they were leaving his league for the wobbly Big XII?

And, in the years before, watched helplessly as Rutgers, Louisville and Connecticut all bailed for greener pastures.

That Mike Aresco?

It doesn't surprise me that Aresco - unlike some of his schools - has never been hired by a P5 conference.

IMO, his job performance with the AAC has been average. While his pay, compared to other G5 commissioners, has been way above average.

IMO, the deal Aresco negotiated for his pay as commissioner has been way better than any deal he ever signed on behalf of the AAC.

(05-14-2022 07:50 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  IMO, the deal Aresco negotiated for his pay as commissioner has been way better than any deal he ever signed on behalf of the AAC.

Gotta tip your hat to a fella who's got his priorities in order

(05-14-2022 07:48 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  It's fun to mock John Swofford and his pennies-on-the-dollar deal that would send even the ACC's best brands into financial hell were they to hang around for an entire generation as the contract stipulates.

But any media rights agreement is always vulnerable to the shifting sands

Ultimately, ESPN and FOX are going to get most of what they want — regardless of how much it shakes up the college sports landscape — because the checks they're writing now are just that big.

In fairness to Swofford, the SEC also signed a similar deal in 2008, a deal that continues to keep its revenues lower than the market.

What saved the SEC was two things. First, the SECN has been such a hit that it brought in truly significant additional revenues. The ACCN has just not been as much of a hit so hasn't had the same impact.

More importantly, the SEC smartly had that side-deal with CBS that kept some of its richest games out of the 2008 ESPN deal.

The SEC almost blew that in 2012, when after TAMU and Missouri joined, it asked CBS to renegotiate that deal. Fortunately for the SEC, CBS refused. Because had CBS agreed, they surely would have asked for an extension (as ESPN did as part of the SECN agreement), and even though they would have gotten a pay raise, that pay raise agreed to in 2012 surely would be dwarfed by what they are getting in 2023, and they would be stuck with that until the 2030s as well.

So IMO, when it comes to TV, the SEC hasn't been much smarter than the ACC. Both have been dumb - the B1G has been the only smart one. The SEC just had a couple things going for it, the ACC did not.

(05-14-2022 07:54 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(05-14-2022 07:50 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  IMO, the deal Aresco negotiated for his pay as commissioner has been way better than any deal he ever signed on behalf of the AAC.

Gotta tip your hat to a fella who's got his priorities in order

FWIW, I don't blame Aresco for that. Nothing wrong with getting as much pay as you can when you agree to become commissioner, and then moving forward, I would do the same.

And IMO he can't be blamed for the IMO "meh" nature of the AAC deals either. The AAC, despite all his harumphing about "P6" and the like (which btw I agree has had some benefits), is just a low-value conference. A "G" conference. The most valuable "G", but that's like having the longest c*ck under 4 inches. Still a "G" thang as Snoop once said. And there's only so much a G-commissioner can do. I don't think a Slive or a Delany could have done any better. Or at least not much better. But I also don't think most other commissioners would have done worse, or not much worse. There is IMO a narrow range of possible performance for a G-commissioner.

Which IMO is why he should have been paid a lot less. There's no sense in paying a commissioner between $1.6m and $2.2m a year (which I believe is what Aresco has been paid) when he can only deliver G-level results, no matter who he is.

(05-13-2022 11:41 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 09:58 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 09:51 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 06:52 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 03:28 PM)esayem Wrote:  14 years give or take. Then they can become conference mates with Butler.

As soon as the ACC implodes.

Then they will become members of the $100 million a year club with Ohio State and North Carolina, not Butler.

Too bad that Notre Dame is contracted thru 2036 with the ACC.

I doubt ND is worried about it. They’ll be out within 5 years.

Hopefully we continue to stir up angst and put pressure and they boot us out.

I want off the Titanic.

I'm with you Domer, and I like the idea of sinking the ship from within. If FSU, Notre Dame and any others who are interested could align and work together I think we could bring it down quickly. Announce that we're leaving the ACC at the first available opportunity, and vote as a bloc against anything the conference wants to do from here on out. No expansions, no schedule reworking, no cooperation at all beyond grudging adherence to the letter of the GoR until we are freed. A scheduling agreement where all of the new allies each to play each other every post-ACC year unless and until they join a new conference (or sign a new scheduling agreement with a conference, in ND's case) could be helpful if we spent any time as Independents before moving on to our ultimate destinations. I think we'd bring it down pretty quickly this way, those that are nervous about their fate would start to see that their dissolution vote has diminishing value (as Big12 fan too has been saying) while any who want to stay together would begin to see the merit of letting us go so they can move on. Lets form an ACC (Angry Compliance Cabal) to kill the ACC (Atlantic Coast Conference) from within!