The unofficial online home for fans of the UAB Blazers. Part of Collegiate Sports Nation (CSN).

https://www.espn.com/college-football/in...rojections


Can UAB keep delivering the big plays? For the first four years of UAB's return to action under Bill Clark, the Blazers delivered success primarily through defense. They improved from 105th to 45th to 28th to ninth in defensive SP+ over that period, but the offense averaged just a 107.8 ranking.

In 2021, the offense leaped to 48th. Efficiency numbers were decent -- 42nd in success rate but 94th in three-and-out rate -- but the Blazers were fantastic at the haymaker. They were fifth in marginal explosiveness (my measure of the magnitude of big plays, adjusted for field position), and they did it in a fun and physical way.

Running back DeWayne McBride averaged 4.1 yards after contact per carry, easily the most among FBS backs with 200-plus carries (Michigan State's Kenneth Walker III was second at 3.8). Tight end Gerrit Prince averaged 10.5 yards after catch, and receiver RaJae' Johnson-Sanders averaged 15.8. Risk-free explosiveness -- the ability to create huge gashes without having to go deep or throw aggressive passes -- is a football cheat code, and UAB unlocked it, scoring at least 31 points in eight of 13 games.

Of course, the defense allowed 30-plus four times, including in all four losses. The Blazers slipped to 31st in defensive SP+, limiting big plays but suffering severe issues in the red zone (129th in red zone TD rate allowed). They will need to solve those problems because while McBride returns for what could be a thrilling junior season and the UAB offensive line returns three potential all-conference performers, Prince and Johnson-Sanders are both gone, and replacing their organic explosiveness could be tricky. They still have deep threat Trea Shropshire and his absurd 26 yards per catch, but he's more classically all-or-nothing. Quarterback Dylan Hopkins won't have the same security blankets.

The secondary returns six of its top seven, but the front seven has to solve red zone problems while replacing three of four linemen and two havoc-heavy linebackers. There are seniors everywhere (plus a blue-chip transfer in former Alabama linebacker Jackson Bratton), so all might be well. But new playmakers need to emerge.


In 2017, five years ago, UAB picked up right where it left off. It remains one of the most shockingly impressive seasons in recent history. UAB went 6-6 in Bill Clark's debut as head coach in 2014, then proceeded to drop football for impossibly dumb and political reasons. Within a year, the school decided to bring the program back, confirming just how dumb the entire episode had been. And after two years off, Clark somehow crafted a roster good enough to go 8-5 in 2017, then do the same or better ever since. It's mind-blowing that the episode happened at all, and it's even wilder that it didn't cost the Blazers even the slightest amount of quality. Bill Clark: good coach.

(05-10-2022 08:34 AM)BlazerMatt Wrote:  https://www.espn.com/college-football/in...rojections


Can UAB keep delivering the big plays? For the first four years of UAB's return to action under Bill Clark, the Blazers delivered success primarily through defense. They improved from 105th to 45th to 28th to ninth in defensive SP+ over that period, but the offense averaged just a 107.8 ranking.

In 2021, the offense leaped to 48th. Efficiency numbers were decent -- 42nd in success rate but 94th in three-and-out rate -- but the Blazers were fantastic at the haymaker. They were fifth in marginal explosiveness (my measure of the magnitude of big plays, adjusted for field position), and they did it in a fun and physical way.

Running back DeWayne McBride averaged 4.1 yards after contact per carry, easily the most among FBS backs with 200-plus carries (Michigan State's Kenneth Walker III was second at 3.8). Tight end Gerrit Prince averaged 10.5 yards after catch, and receiver RaJae' Johnson-Sanders averaged 15.8. Risk-free explosiveness -- the ability to create huge gashes without having to go deep or throw aggressive passes -- is a football cheat code, and UAB unlocked it, scoring at least 31 points in eight of 13 games.

Of course, the defense allowed 30-plus four times, including in all four losses. The Blazers slipped to 31st in defensive SP+, limiting big plays but suffering severe issues in the red zone (129th in red zone TD rate allowed). They will need to solve those problems because while McBride returns for what could be a thrilling junior season and the UAB offensive line returns three potential all-conference performers, Prince and Johnson-Sanders are both gone, and replacing their organic explosiveness could be tricky. They still have deep threat Trea Shropshire and his absurd 26 yards per catch, but he's more classically all-or-nothing. Quarterback Dylan Hopkins won't have the same security blankets.

The secondary returns six of its top seven, but the front seven has to solve red zone problems while replacing three of four linemen and two havoc-heavy linebackers. There are seniors everywhere (plus a blue-chip transfer in former Alabama linebacker Jackson Bratton), so all might be well. But new playmakers need to emerge.


In 2017, five years ago, UAB picked up right where it left off. It remains one of the most shockingly impressive seasons in recent history. UAB went 6-6 in Bill Clark's debut as head coach in 2014, then proceeded to drop football for impossibly dumb and political reasons. Within a year, the school decided to bring the program back, confirming just how dumb the entire episode had been. And after two years off, Clark somehow crafted a roster good enough to go 8-5 in 2017, then do the same or better ever since. It's mind-blowing that the episode happened at all, and it's even wilder that it didn't cost the Blazers even the slightest amount of quality. Bill Clark: good coach.

This is why I like football analytics. Some of this stuff you had a feel for but until you see the actual numbers it's really hard to make any conclusions. That last paragraph though

Shoot, based on the spring game, I'm thinking we may have a QB battle on our hands.

(But please, don't rotate two QBs in and out. I hadn't thought of that until just now, and it really turned my stomach.)