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AF & CSU had the MWC over a barrel - like 2013 Boise. Should they have capitalized?
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TroyTBoy Offline
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Post: #1
AF & CSU had the MWC over a barrel - like 2013 Boise. Should they have capitalized?
It was widely reported that Air Force and Colorado State were disgruntled with the deal the MWC made with Boise State in perpetuity.

In fact, it has been speculated that both schools contacted the American Athletic Conference during the last round of realignment in part because of this competitive disadvantage.

Eventually both teams succumbed to alumni pressure (and subsequent leaks to the press) after it was reported that they were defecting to the American. Publicly they were in a tenuous position because the American had been raided and the journalists were negatively framing the jump.

That being said: Did Air Force and Colorado State react to that pressure too fast? Did they give up crucial leverage that may have gotten them a pay bump into the Boise neighborhood?

Essentially, AFA & CSU could've played both sides like Boise State in 2013 but they flinched when booster(s) broke ranks. Then they subsequently made public declarations of MWC solidarity.

If Air Force and Colorado State could've stood their ground for those 2 weeks that it was reported they'd join the American within, could they have gotten Thompson to close the pay gap between them and Boise State?

Should they have capitalized on their own "2013-Boise State" scenario?

IMO, this is one of the biggest G5 realignment gaffes ever - if it's true about BSU's special deal sowing the seeds of discontent in the first place. Thompson could have gone back to his media partners (Fox/CBS) and presented them with the possibility they'd lose CSU & Air Force to ESPN, or match the Boise deal. They probably would have agreed to the bump.

Yet, CSU & AFA flinched - even though they had the advantage of a very public time line that would've yielded more pressure with each passing day; and unfortunately for CSU & AFA, their request to Thompson for more Texas schools went unmet after the American took the most desirable Texas teams off the board.

That extra revenue would've been critical for them; and publicly it would've given both programs enhanced G5 status as "equals" to Boise State (thereby removing their second class membership). Nevertheless, it also would've alienated SDSU (who is grossly underpaid and would've been even more unsatisfied), as well as the rest of the MWC.

So, should they have done it?
(This post was last modified: 05-07-2022 03:41 AM by TroyTBoy.)
05-07-2022 03:38 AM
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Fighting Muskie Online
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Post: #2
RE: AF & CSU had the MWC over a barrel - like 2013 Boise. Should they have capitalized?
I think that AFA and Colorado St missed an opportunity when they were being courted by the AAC. I think a 16 team AAC that included that pair plus some others from the MWC would have led to a clear cut #6 league.

Instead, that stayed local and decided to roll the die and see if the MWC champ could beat out the other 4.
05-07-2022 08:49 AM
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TexanMark Offline
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RE: AF & CSU had the MWC over a barrel - like 2013 Boise. Should they have capitalized?
The AAC would have been in better shape with AFA and CSU in the fold after the defectors leave.

You could create a pretty good 14 team conference that would probably still be the undisputed Best of the Rest
(This post was last modified: 05-07-2022 09:31 AM by TexanMark.)
05-07-2022 09:25 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: AF & CSU had the MWC over a barrel - like 2013 Boise. Should they have capital...
(05-07-2022 03:38 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  It was widely reported that Air Force and Colorado State were disgruntled with the deal the MWC made with Boise State in perpetuity.

In fact, it has been speculated that both schools contacted the American Athletic Conference during the last round of realignment in part because of this competitive disadvantage.

Eventually both teams succumbed to alumni pressure (and subsequent leaks to the press) after it was reported that they were defecting to the American. Publicly they were in a tenuous position because the American had been raided and the journalists were negatively framing the jump.

That being said: Did Air Force and Colorado State react to that pressure too fast? Did they give up crucial leverage that may have gotten them a pay bump into the Boise neighborhood?

The question I would have is "where would the extra money for CST and AFA have come from? It's not like the MW has millions of dollars just lying around somewhere to give these schools, or any others, extra money.

The only way it could happen is if the other MW schools agreed to take a pay cut to fund the extra money for CST and AFA.

Given what the rest of the MW membership felt about giving Boise extra money during the 2020 TV deal talks, I don't think that would have much chance of flying. And that's putting it mildly, LOL.
(This post was last modified: 05-07-2022 11:47 AM by quo vadis.)
05-07-2022 11:46 AM
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GoldenWarrior11 Offline
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RE: AF & CSU had the MWC over a barrel - like 2013 Boise. Should they have capitalized?
Here's the elephant in the room regarding a "Best of the Rest" national conference - if the money made sense, this type of league would have already been formed (in 2012 or 2021). The reality is that the networks, not fans, do not put the required value necessary for these schools to willingly join a national conference outside of the recognized power conference structure. If the money made sense for a Boise State, a Colorado State, an Air Force, a San Diego State, etc., they all would immediately jump ship because football money drives realignment. If the money didn't make sense when programs like Louisville and Rutgers were involved, or Cincinnati, USF and Houston, or Memphis and SMU, then why and how would these schools be financially motivated (again by networks) to join a league that now has (respectively) UTSA, North Texas, Rice, FAU and Charlotte?

The financials didn't make sense then, and they certainly don't make sense now.
05-07-2022 01:20 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Online
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RE: AF & CSU had the MWC over a barrel - like 2013 Boise. Should they have capital...
(05-07-2022 01:20 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Here's the elephant in the room regarding a "Best of the Rest" national conference - if the money made sense, this type of league would have already been formed (in 2012 or 2021). The reality is that the networks, not fans, do not put the required value necessary for these schools to willingly join a national conference outside of the recognized power conference structure.

This quote should be copy/pasted and pinned at the top of any “Why don’t the AAC/MWC create a best of the rest conference” thread.
05-07-2022 01:22 PM
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RE: AF & CSU had the MWC over a barrel - like 2013 Boise. Should they have capital...
(05-07-2022 01:20 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Here's the elephant in the room regarding a "Best of the Rest" national conference - if the money made sense, this type of league would have already been formed (in 2012 or 2021). The reality is that the networks, not fans, do not put the required value necessary for these schools to willingly join a national conference outside of the recognized power conference structure. If the money made sense for a Boise State, a Colorado State, an Air Force, a San Diego State, etc., they all would immediately jump ship because football money drives realignment. If the money didn't make sense when programs like Louisville and Rutgers were involved, or Cincinnati, USF and Houston, or Memphis and SMU, then why and how would these schools be financially motivated (again by networks) to join a league that now has (respectively) UTSA, North Texas, Rice, FAU and Charlotte?

The financials didn't make sense then, and they certainly don't make sense now.

Aresco added the CUSA6. Dumb. Dumb. Dumb. No more adds will be had. Only subtractions.
05-07-2022 02:07 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: AF & CSU had the MWC over a barrel - like 2013 Boise. Should they have capital...
(05-07-2022 02:07 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  
(05-07-2022 01:20 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Here's the elephant in the room regarding a "Best of the Rest" national conference - if the money made sense, this type of league would have already been formed (in 2012 or 2021). The reality is that the networks, not fans, do not put the required value necessary for these schools to willingly join a national conference outside of the recognized power conference structure. If the money made sense for a Boise State, a Colorado State, an Air Force, a San Diego State, etc., they all would immediately jump ship because football money drives realignment. If the money didn't make sense when programs like Louisville and Rutgers were involved, or Cincinnati, USF and Houston, or Memphis and SMU, then why and how would these schools be financially motivated (again by networks) to join a league that now has (respectively) UTSA, North Texas, Rice, FAU and Charlotte?

The financials didn't make sense then, and they certainly don't make sense now.

Aresco added the CUSA6. Dumb. Dumb. Dumb. No more adds will be had. Only subtractions.

The AAC is a marriage of convenience, or really an arrangement of convenience.

I suspect this wasn't so much Aresco's decision as the decision of the remaining schools. They were informed that to keep their $7 million payout, a piddly payout in the big scheme but more than the $2m they had been getting before 2020, they had to add these six CUSA ne'r do wells. So being short-sighted, they voted to do it.

And the reason they are short-sighted is because none of the see themselves as permanent denizens of the AAC. They are all hoping to exit like UCF, Cincy and UH are doing.

It won't happen for most of them, maybe not any of them, but hope can be blinding.
05-07-2022 02:17 PM
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HawaiiMongoose Offline
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Post: #9
RE: AF & CSU had the MWC over a barrel - like 2013 Boise. Should they have capital...
(05-07-2022 01:22 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(05-07-2022 01:20 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Here's the elephant in the room regarding a "Best of the Rest" national conference - if the money made sense, this type of league would have already been formed (in 2012 or 2021). The reality is that the networks, not fans, do not put the required value necessary for these schools to willingly join a national conference outside of the recognized power conference structure.

This quote should be copy/pasted and pinned at the top of any “Why don’t the AAC/MWC create a best of the rest conference” thread.

Yep. This topic comes up again and again and the answer is always the same. If a BOR conference made sense it would have already happened. The money isn't there to compensate for all the downsides.
05-07-2022 02:46 PM
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bill dazzle Offline
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RE: AF & CSU had the MWC over a barrel - like 2013 Boise. Should they have capitalized?
The challenge for the G5 conferences — and for many DI leagues that don't sponsor football, for that matter — are myriad. These include awkward geography/logistics, lack of shared history, poor institutional fit, wildly varying degrees of emphasis/spending put on certain sports, etc.

There are a few fortunate exceptions, including the Big East, Ivy League and SWAC — in which all members in each conference "fit."

As a Memphis fan — and instead of a "Best of Rest" league, I would like to see the allowance of "single-sport-specific" conferences. So, and for example, 16 (or 14 or 12 — or even 20) schools with strong men's basketball could be aligned with each other for that one sport only. That type league is the absolute best possible situation for Memphis basketball (notwithstanding, of course, the Big 12).

Similarly, however many schools with strong football could be aligned with each other for that one sport. And for baseball. And for soccer. And for etc., etc. From a selfish perspective, that would be a highly appealing option for Memphis. Of course, for the football program at my beloved Vanderbilt university ... it could be disastrous.

Now, and admittedly, for the "lower-profile" athletic programs at many universities, such "single-sport-specific" leagues would serve no useful purpose — and even be detrimental.
(This post was last modified: 05-07-2022 02:50 PM by bill dazzle.)
05-07-2022 02:48 PM
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Erictelevision Offline
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Post: #11
RE: AF & CSU had the MWC over a barrel - like 2013 Boise. Should they have capitalized?
Which is why I hope they never happen. The system should serve ALL student-athletes.
05-07-2022 03:20 PM
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RE: AF & CSU had the MWC over a barrel - like 2013 Boise. Should they have capitalized?
No, they made the right call. Air Force-Temple and Colorado State-ECU aren’t appetizing conference matchups.
05-07-2022 06:53 PM
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ken d Online
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RE: AF & CSU had the MWC over a barrel - like 2013 Boise. Should they have capital...
(05-07-2022 11:46 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-07-2022 03:38 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  It was widely reported that Air Force and Colorado State were disgruntled with the deal the MWC made with Boise State in perpetuity.

In fact, it has been speculated that both schools contacted the American Athletic Conference during the last round of realignment in part because of this competitive disadvantage.

Eventually both teams succumbed to alumni pressure (and subsequent leaks to the press) after it was reported that they were defecting to the American. Publicly they were in a tenuous position because the American had been raided and the journalists were negatively framing the jump.

That being said: Did Air Force and Colorado State react to that pressure too fast? Did they give up crucial leverage that may have gotten them a pay bump into the Boise neighborhood?

The question I would have is "where would the extra money for CST and AFA have come from? It's not like the MW has millions of dollars just lying around somewhere to give these schools, or any others, extra money.

The only way it could happen is if the other MW schools agreed to take a pay cut to fund the extra money for CST and AFA.

Given what the rest of the MW membership felt about giving Boise extra money during the 2020 TV deal talks, I don't think that would have much chance of flying. And that's putting it mildly, LOL.

Here's what I don't understand. The MWC signed a $270 million, 6 year media deal, and reluctantly backed down when they threatened to not renew Boise's $1.8 million annual bonus (which Boise says it is due in perpetuity). Doing the math, if you take $1.8 million of the top of 1/6 of $270 million and then split the balance 12 ways, the other 11 schools get about $3.6 million and Boise gets $5.4 million.

Why don't the remaining MWC schools vote to give themselves the same sweetheart deal Boise gets? Give all 11 of them the same bonus. Since they haven't taken anything away from Boise, they aren't in breach of the re-entry contract with the Broncos.

Or is the deal not just a bonus for Boise, but a guarantee that they will receive $1.8 million more than every other member? Does anyone know the actual wording of that contract stipulation?

In any case, you are right. No way would the nine schools who didn't threaten to leave take money out of their own pockets to reward CSU and AFA for not leaving.
05-07-2022 07:47 PM
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Post: #14
RE: AF & CSU had the MWC over a barrel - like 2013 Boise. Should they have capitalized?
I honestly at least right now see Boise State losing it's extra payout the next tv contract. The only option for any remaining school is a P5 invite to either the PAC 12 or Big 12. I don't see any value going to the AAC for any school. Boise State can't go Indy unless it wants it's sports in the Big West. Air Force might be able to go to the summit with Northern Colorado if it goes Indy.
05-07-2022 10:08 PM
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RE: AF & CSU had the MWC over a barrel - like 2013 Boise. Should they have capital...
(05-07-2022 02:46 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  
(05-07-2022 01:22 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(05-07-2022 01:20 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Here's the elephant in the room regarding a "Best of the Rest" national conference - if the money made sense, this type of league would have already been formed (in 2012 or 2021). The reality is that the networks, not fans, do not put the required value necessary for these schools to willingly join a national conference outside of the recognized power conference structure.

This quote should be copy/pasted and pinned at the top of any “Why don’t the AAC/MWC create a best of the rest conference” thread.

Yep. This topic comes up again and again and the answer is always the same. If a BOR conference made sense it would have already happened. The money isn't there to compensate for all the downsides.

I think the new B12 is the new Best of the Rest conference… just considered the “lowest” P5 now instead of an upstart P6 AAC. Look at their geography. They will actually outperform the Pac12 and sometimes the ACC and create the BOR drama that TV networks will pay for.
05-08-2022 12:52 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: AF & CSU had the MWC over a barrel - like 2013 Boise. Should they have capital...
(05-07-2022 07:47 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(05-07-2022 11:46 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-07-2022 03:38 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  It was widely reported that Air Force and Colorado State were disgruntled with the deal the MWC made with Boise State in perpetuity.

In fact, it has been speculated that both schools contacted the American Athletic Conference during the last round of realignment in part because of this competitive disadvantage.

Eventually both teams succumbed to alumni pressure (and subsequent leaks to the press) after it was reported that they were defecting to the American. Publicly they were in a tenuous position because the American had been raided and the journalists were negatively framing the jump.

That being said: Did Air Force and Colorado State react to that pressure too fast? Did they give up crucial leverage that may have gotten them a pay bump into the Boise neighborhood?

The question I would have is "where would the extra money for CST and AFA have come from? It's not like the MW has millions of dollars just lying around somewhere to give these schools, or any others, extra money.

The only way it could happen is if the other MW schools agreed to take a pay cut to fund the extra money for CST and AFA.

Given what the rest of the MW membership felt about giving Boise extra money during the 2020 TV deal talks, I don't think that would have much chance of flying. And that's putting it mildly, LOL.

Here's what I don't understand. The MWC signed a $270 million, 6 year media deal, and reluctantly backed down when they threatened to not renew Boise's $1.8 million annual bonus (which Boise says it is due in perpetuity). Doing the math, if you take $1.8 million of the top of 1/6 of $270 million and then split the balance 12 ways, the other 11 schools get about $3.6 million and Boise gets $5.4 million.

Why don't the remaining MWC schools vote to give themselves the same sweetheart deal Boise gets? Give all 11 of them the same bonus. Since they haven't taken anything away from Boise, they aren't in breach of the re-entry contract with the Broncos.

Or is the deal not just a bonus for Boise, but a guarantee that they will receive $1.8 million more than every other member? Does anyone know the actual wording of that contract stipulation?

In any case, you are right. No way would the nine schools who didn't threaten to leave take money out of their own pockets to reward CSU and AFA for not leaving.

Seems like the way TV revenue is divided is first $1.8m is creamed off the top for Boise. Then, the remainder is divided evenly among the MW schools, including Boise, but excluding Hawaii.

So to me, it wouldn't be possible for the MW to vote to give everyone else a bonus if they excluded Boise from that new bonus. The contract seems to indicate that regarding TV revenues, Boise gets whatever everyone else is getting, plus $1.8m more. Here's text about the terms of the 2016 agreement from the Boise lawsuit:

"Distribution of Net Television Revenue. In return for the grant of television rights in paragraph 3 above, the MWC will adopt the following formula for the distribution of net television revenue:(i) One million eight hundred thousand dollars shall be paid to Boise State. (ii) The remainder of the net television revenue shall be paid in equal shares to the MWC members participating in football- including Boise State, but excluding University of Hawaii. For example, if the net television revenue in a year is $13.4 million, Boise State would receive $ 1,800,000 plus $ 1,054,545, and the ten other MWC members participating in football television revenue (excluding University of Hawaii) would receive $1,054,545."

https://www.idahopress.com/blueturfsport...b21bd.html

Now this clause does talk about TV revenue. If the MW has some other source of revenue, it might be able to use that to fund giving the same bonus to everyone else. But that would raise an issue of whether it could exclude Boise from that payout, give it less. I imagine it probably could not.
(This post was last modified: 05-08-2022 06:25 AM by quo vadis.)
05-08-2022 06:22 AM
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RE: AF & CSU had the MWC over a barrel - like 2013 Boise. Should they have capital...
(05-08-2022 06:22 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-07-2022 07:47 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(05-07-2022 11:46 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-07-2022 03:38 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  It was widely reported that Air Force and Colorado State were disgruntled with the deal the MWC made with Boise State in perpetuity.

In fact, it has been speculated that both schools contacted the American Athletic Conference during the last round of realignment in part because of this competitive disadvantage.

Eventually both teams succumbed to alumni pressure (and subsequent leaks to the press) after it was reported that they were defecting to the American. Publicly they were in a tenuous position because the American had been raided and the journalists were negatively framing the jump.

That being said: Did Air Force and Colorado State react to that pressure too fast? Did they give up crucial leverage that may have gotten them a pay bump into the Boise neighborhood?

The question I would have is "where would the extra money for CST and AFA have come from? It's not like the MW has millions of dollars just lying around somewhere to give these schools, or any others, extra money.

The only way it could happen is if the other MW schools agreed to take a pay cut to fund the extra money for CST and AFA.

Given what the rest of the MW membership felt about giving Boise extra money during the 2020 TV deal talks, I don't think that would have much chance of flying. And that's putting it mildly, LOL.

Here's what I don't understand. The MWC signed a $270 million, 6 year media deal, and reluctantly backed down when they threatened to not renew Boise's $1.8 million annual bonus (which Boise says it is due in perpetuity). Doing the math, if you take $1.8 million of the top of 1/6 of $270 million and then split the balance 12 ways, the other 11 schools get about $3.6 million and Boise gets $5.4 million.

Why don't the remaining MWC schools vote to give themselves the same sweetheart deal Boise gets? Give all 11 of them the same bonus. Since they haven't taken anything away from Boise, they aren't in breach of the re-entry contract with the Broncos.

Or is the deal not just a bonus for Boise, but a guarantee that they will receive $1.8 million more than every other member? Does anyone know the actual wording of that contract stipulation?

In any case, you are right. No way would the nine schools who didn't threaten to leave take money out of their own pockets to reward CSU and AFA for not leaving.

Seems like the way TV revenue is divided is first $1.8m is creamed off the top for Boise. Then, the remainder is divided evenly among the MW schools, including Boise, but excluding Hawaii.

So to me, it wouldn't be possible for the MW to vote to give everyone else a bonus if they excluded Boise from that new bonus. The contract seems to indicate that regarding TV revenues, Boise gets whatever everyone else is getting, plus $1.8m more. Here's text about the terms of the 2016 agreement from the Boise lawsuit:

"Distribution of Net Television Revenue. In return for the grant of television rights in paragraph 3 above, the MWC will adopt the following formula for the distribution of net television revenue:(i) One million eight hundred thousand dollars shall be paid to Boise State. (ii) The remainder of the net television revenue shall be paid in equal shares to the MWC members participating in football- including Boise State, but excluding University of Hawaii. For example, if the net television revenue in a year is $13.4 million, Boise State would receive $ 1,800,000 plus $ 1,054,545, and the ten other MWC members participating in football television revenue (excluding University of Hawaii) would receive $1,054,545."

https://www.idahopress.com/blueturfsport...b21bd.html

Now this clause does talk about TV revenue. If the MW has some other source of revenue, it might be able to use that to fund giving the same bonus to everyone else. But that would raise an issue of whether it could exclude Boise from that payout, give it less. I imagine it probably could not.

Then that would seem to preclude giving AFA and CSU anything extra, meaning the premise of the OP is invalid. They couldn't capitalize on their threat to leave.
05-08-2022 08:06 PM
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Utgrizfan Offline
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Post: #18
RE: AF & CSU had the MWC over a barrel - like 2013 Boise. Should they have capitalized?
AF and CSU made the right call staying in the MWC. The AAC will become merely a better C-USA.
05-09-2022 12:36 AM
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Post: #19
RE: AF & CSU had the MWC over a barrel - like 2013 Boise. Should they have capital...
Neither Air Force nor Colorado State have the same level of national interest as Boise State.They lacked the leverage to pull their own “sweetheart” deals.

The reaction from the MWC when the rumors were floated that the Falcons and Rams were leaving for the AAC? “Glad we don’t have to deal with cut blocks from the triple option anymore.” The reaction when word got out that the Broncos were rethinking their move to the Big East when that conference fell apart? “Come back and save our TV deal…we’ll even separate your home games from the rest of the contract and give you a bigger cut.”

BTW, the notion that Boise State’s added payment will go away is flat-out wrong. Commissioner Thompson floated that idea, but President Tromp quickly shut that nonsense down. Our attorneys made it very clear to the MWC that the terms for our return to the league guaranteed our bigger cut in perpetuity; any breach of that contract will cost the MWC dearly. The league backed off of that position in a hurry. Pretty lousy way to treat your conference bell cow —Thompson should be fired for even suggesting it.
05-09-2022 05:40 AM
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Post: #20
RE: AF & CSU had the MWC over a barrel - like 2013 Boise. Should they have capitalized?
BSU is more valuable to the MWC than Memphis/USF is to the AAC combined. They should be making 1.5-1.75x everybody else in the MWC, at the expense of Hawaii and at least 5-10% off everyone else. Good luck cutting bait with that, because CSU/AFA will be running to the AAC even should they lose Memphis/USF.
(This post was last modified: 05-09-2022 06:43 AM by RUScarlets.)
05-09-2022 06:43 AM
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