It's Memphis' to lose. With this coach, it's a crap shoot.

(05-24-2022 09:15 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(05-24-2022 06:45 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-24-2022 06:17 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(05-24-2022 03:40 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .

I've gotta say that I don't really understand why Memphis is leading this poll.

Here's why:

1. Memphis only went 6-6 last season.

2. Memphis has shown negative progress, to date, under their Head Coach, who only has two seasons of D1 HC experience.

3. Memphis has a 4-7 W-L record vs teams with winning records in 2020 & '21.

4. Their Head Coach only has a 14-9 record (.609) thus far, the equivalent of 7.3 wins per 12-game season, which is fairly good, but not outstanding, considering the fact that 5/7 of those wins were racked up against teams with losing records.

.

Compare this record with, for example, San Diego State:

1. SDSU went 12-2 last season.

2. SDSU has shown positive progress, to date, in their two seasons under their HC, who has 15 seasons as a D1 Head Coach under his belt.

3. SDSU had a much better (7-5) record vs. teams winning records in 2020 & '21.

4. Their Head Coach only has a 16-6 (.727) record at thus far at SDSU, the equivalent of a 8.7 wins per 12-game season, which is better than Memphis has done, especially considering the fact that nearly half (7) of their 16 wins were racked up against teams with winning records.

.

Things could change, but I would rate SDSU's record under their current Head Coach as being better than Memphis's at this point.

.

Louisiana's record ( 40-12 (.769) ) under their current HC is even more impressive than SDSU's, and they finished the 2020 and 2021 seasons ranked #15th and #16th in the final AP polls.

.

Thus, I would rank those three programs this way:

1. Louisiana
2. San Diego State
3. Memphis

At first glance, it also appears that App. State and Boise St. have been stronger than Memphis has been under their current Head Coaches.

I wonder how others would rank the teams in this poll, from top to bottom.

.

Kinda sucks when you ask a question and then people don't answer it in the way you want, eh?

Sounds like you're inordinately suspicious, & perhaps the overly-suspicious type.

Is that how you feel? It's definitely not the way I feel!

If anyone is wondering, I added my own rank-ordering at the end to see if I could get a conversation going about how people were rank-ordering the teams - - i.e., what criteria they were using.

.

I'm inviting people who are interested to go beyond the poll questions and rank-order these teams, and also to say why you're ranking them the way you are (if you are).

.

You literally asked the question:
"Will Memphis be the top G5 football program (after UC et al. join the Big 12) ?"

And then you countered with a post that said:
"I've gotta say that I don't really understand why Memphis is leading this poll."

So, I ask again: "Kinda sucks when you ask a question and then people don't answer it in the way you want, eh?"

What do you mean, it "kinda sucks," BJ?

What in the world are you so suspicious about, anyways?

I don't think it sucks at all!

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The truth is that I don't understand why Memphis is leading in this poll.

I don't care to hear from you at all, since you've decided to be so nasty and ad hominem. I'm putting you on my ignore list for badgering me.

However, I would appreciate it if someone else would explain why they think Memphis is leading in this poll.

It seems to me that there are at least 3 or 4 programs that are in a better position than Memphis is in - based strictly on their very mediocre performance in 2020 and 2021.

.

(05-24-2022 03:40 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  Louisiana's record ( 40-12 (.769) ) under their current HC is even more impressive than SDSU's, and they finished the 2020 and 2021 seasons ranked #15th and #16th in the final AP polls...

Louisiana's current head coach is 0-0 as a head coach in his career. Billy Napier is the head coach at Florida and took most of that staff with him.

It is difficult enough for a member of a power league to be nationally relevant in both football and men's basketball. For a member of a non-power conference, it is near impossible.

As such, Memphis will face a challenge being the "best" G5 football program, say, three of every 10 years. It's possible — but highly unlikely. And going on a Boise-esque run ... not going to happen.

(05-24-2022 09:45 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-24-2022 09:15 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(05-24-2022 06:45 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-24-2022 06:17 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(05-24-2022 03:40 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .

I've gotta say that I don't really understand why Memphis is leading this poll.

Here's why:

1. Memphis only went 6-6 last season.

2. Memphis has shown negative progress, to date, under their Head Coach, who only has two seasons of D1 HC experience.

3. Memphis has a 4-7 W-L record vs teams with winning records in 2020 & '21.

4. Their Head Coach only has a 14-9 record (.609) thus far, the equivalent of 7.3 wins per 12-game season, which is fairly good, but not outstanding, considering the fact that 5/7 of those wins were racked up against teams with losing records.

.

Compare this record with, for example, San Diego State:

1. SDSU went 12-2 last season.

2. SDSU has shown positive progress, to date, in their two seasons under their HC, who has 15 seasons as a D1 Head Coach under his belt.

3. SDSU had a much better (7-5) record vs. teams winning records in 2020 & '21.

4. Their Head Coach only has a 16-6 (.727) record at thus far at SDSU, the equivalent of a 8.7 wins per 12-game season, which is better than Memphis has done, especially considering the fact that nearly half (7) of their 16 wins were racked up against teams with winning records.

.

Things could change, but I would rate SDSU's record under their current Head Coach as being better than Memphis's at this point.

.

Louisiana's record ( 40-12 (.769) ) under their current HC is even more impressive than SDSU's, and they finished the 2020 and 2021 seasons ranked #15th and #16th in the final AP polls.

.

Thus, I would rank those three programs this way:

1. Louisiana
2. San Diego State
3. Memphis

At first glance, it also appears that App. State and Boise St. have been stronger than Memphis has been under their current Head Coaches.

I wonder how others would rank the teams in this poll, from top to bottom.

.

Kinda sucks when you ask a question and then people don't answer it in the way you want, eh?

Sounds like you're inordinately suspicious, & perhaps the overly-suspicious type.

Is that how you feel? It's definitely not the way I feel!

If anyone is wondering, I added my own rank-ordering at the end to see if I could get a conversation going about how people were rank-ordering the teams - - i.e., what criteria they were using.

.

I'm inviting people who are interested to go beyond the poll questions and rank-order these teams, and also to say why you're ranking them the way you are (if you are).

.

You literally asked the question:
"Will Memphis be the top G5 football program (after UC et al. join the Big 12) ?"

And then you countered with a post that said:
"I've gotta say that I don't really understand why Memphis is leading this poll."

So, I ask again: "Kinda sucks when you ask a question and then people don't answer it in the way you want, eh?"

What do you mean, it "kinda sucks," BJ?

What in the world are you so suspicious about, anyways?

I don't think it sucks at all!

.

The truth is that I don't understand why Memphis is leading in this poll.

I don't care to hear from you at all, since you've decided to be so nasty and ad hominem. I'm putting you on my ignore list for badgering me.

However, I would appreciate it if someone else would explain why they think Memphis is leading in this poll.

It seems to me that there are at least 3 or 4 programs that are in a better position than Memphis is in - based strictly on their very mediocre performance in 2020 and 2021.

.

Do better research.

In 2020, we were 8-3, including a bowl win. How the hell is that mediocre?

And last year, we went 6-6, but lost 4 games by a total of 3, 3, 1 (OT) and 6 points, so we easily could have been 8-4 or better. And we were favored in our bowl game, but it was canceled by Covid on the opposing team.

(05-25-2022 09:59 AM)TripleA Wrote:  In 2020, we were 8-3, including a bowl win. How is that mediocre?

And last year, we went 6-6, but lost 4 games by a total of 3, 3, 1 (OT) and 6 points, so we easily could have been 8-4 or better. And we were favored in our bowl game, but it was canceled by Covid on the opposing team.

You're right that their 2020 season wasn't "mediocre." I was combining the 2020 and 2021 seasons together, since those are the two seasons their HC has coached at Memphis so far. In 2020, they beat two teams that had winning records (6-4) UCF and (5-4) FAU.

Memphis finished the 2020 season ranked #46th in the Massey Composite. Here's how they compared with some of the other top 50 G5 teams:

#13 Coastal Carolina
#17 Louisiana
#19 Ball State
#22 Buffalo
#23 San Jose State
#28 Boise State
#29 Liberty
#30 Appalachian State
#34 Tulsa
#40 Nevada
#46 Memphis
#47 UAB
#49 Army
#50 Marshall
#51 SMU
#54 Miami (OH)
#55 Toledo
#56 Western Michigan
#59 San Diego State
#61 Air Force
#69 Georgia State
#73 Central Michigan
#83 UTSA
#92 Wyoming
#94 Fresno St.
#97 ECU
#103 WKU
#107 Northern Illinois
#116 Utah State

https://masseyratings.com/cf/arch/compare2020-16.htm



Memphis finished the 2021 season ranked #77th in the Massey Composite. Here's how they compared with some of the other top 80 G5 teams:

#22 Louisiana
#26 San Diego St.
#32 Air Force
#33 Boise State
#34 UTSA
#36 Utah State
#37 App. State
#38 Fresno State
#42 Coastal Carolina
#44 WKU
#45 Army
#48 SMU
#50 UAB
#54 Nevada
#58 Liberty
#62 Central Michigan
#64 Western Michigan
#66 ECU
#68 Tulsa
#69 GA State
#74 Northern Illinois
#75 Marshall
#77 Memphis
#79 Wyoming
#80 Miami (OH)

https://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

There's a prediction thread over on the AAC message board, and the fans who have made predictions have written that they're expecting Memphis to finish somewhere between 4th and 7th in the American in 2022. The average prediction is ~5th, but it's a hot thread, and there will be many more predictions rolling in.

I wish them the best, have nothing against them, and hope they do well. I'm just not convinced that they're going to be THE BEST of the G5, that's all, and the poll shows that there are quite a few others who have some questions about that, as well.

.

Liberty.

They have now (well on 7/1/23) what they lacked before: a conference.

I can see Liberty running through C-USA the way Boise State did in the WAC. They’ll be in the G5 NY6 bowl spot conversation more often than not.

(05-24-2022 03:40 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .

I've gotta say that I don't really understand why Memphis is leading this poll.

Here's why:

1. Memphis only went 6-6 last season.

2. Memphis has shown negative progress, to date, under their Head Coach, who only has two seasons of D1 HC experience.

3. Memphis has a 4-7 W-L record vs teams with winning records in 2020 & '21.

4. Their Head Coach only has a 14-9 record (.609) thus far, the equivalent of 7.3 wins per 12-game season, which is fairly good, but not outstanding, considering the fact that 5/7 of those wins were racked up against teams with losing records.

.

Compare this record with, for example, San Diego State:

1. SDSU went 12-2 last season.

2. SDSU has shown positive progress, to date, in their two seasons under their HC, who has 15 seasons as a D1 Head Coach under his belt.

3. SDSU had a much better (7-5) record vs. teams winning records in 2020 & '21.

4. Their Head Coach only has a 16-6 (.727) record at thus far at SDSU, the equivalent of a 8.7 wins per 12-game season, which is better than Memphis has done, especially considering the fact that nearly half (7) of their 16 wins were racked up against teams with winning records.

.

Things could change, but I would rate SDSU's record under their current Head Coach as being better than Memphis's at this point.

.

Louisiana's record ( 40-12 (.769) ) under their current HC is even more impressive than SDSU's, and they finished the 2020 and 2021 seasons ranked #15th and #16th in the final AP polls.

.

Thus, I would rank those three programs this way:

1. Louisiana
2. San Diego State
3. Memphis

At first glance, it also appears that App. State and Boise St. have been stronger than Memphis has been under their current Head Coaches.

I wonder how others would rank the teams in this poll, from top to bottom.

.

Just a FYI the current SDSU HC (Brady Hoke) was HC previously (2009-10) before coaching Michigan.

He went 4-8 and 9-4 in those 2 seasons. In 2010 he had a winning season, which the Aztecs last had in 1998, and won a bowl game, which hadn't been done since 1969 when Don Coryell was HC. The Aztecs haven't had a losing season since.

.


2020/2021 AVERAGE final Massey Composite Rankings:

#19.5 Louisiana
#27.5 Coastal Carolina
#30.5 Boise State
#33.5 Appalachian State
#42.5 San Diego State
#43.5 Liberty
#46 Tulsa
#46.5 Air Force
#47 (tie) Army
#47 (tie) Nevada
#48.5 UAB
#49.5 SMU
#55.5 Ball State
#58.5 UTSA
#60 Western Michigan
#61.5 Memphis
#62.5 Marshall
#66 Fresno State
#67.5 Central Michigan
#69 Georgia State
#73.5 WKU
#76 Utah State
#81.5 ECU
#85.5 Wyoming
#90.5 Northern Illinois

https://masseyratings.com/cf/arch/compare2020-16.htm
https://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

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Oops. I thought this was for basketball. lol. I will unvote SMU. and vote for Boise (puke)

.

Boise State and Memphis are now tied in the poll.

.