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When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
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texoma Offline
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When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
I am thinking 2023. I think they will pay what ever fee is negotiated. What do you think?
(This post was last modified: 05-01-2022 10:06 AM by texoma.)
05-01-2022 09:39 AM
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goodknightfl Offline
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
no clue
05-01-2022 09:55 AM
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Gamenole Offline
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
I'm guessing 2024, to coincide with the SEC's new TV deal.
05-01-2022 10:15 AM
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Wahoowa84 Offline
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
I believe that Bob Bowlsby’s retirement timing was a brilliant move. It helps delay serious negotiations about OU and UT leaving early.

The Big 12 benefits from having OU and UT as part of their media deal. The more games against the historic powerhouses, the better. The B12 needs to build-up the value of the remaining and backfill programs…they need to showcase their best programs as long as possible.

2023 would be way too early. The Big 12 needs a new commissioner in place to formalize such a big decision. The new programs will need to be integrated.

2024 is still possible, but there are a lot of uncertainties for the B12. The new commissioner will need to address the next media contract and CFP expansion will need to be resolved. OU and UT would need to offer a compelling payout offer.

IMO, 7/1/2025 is becoming the likely transition date.
05-01-2022 12:19 PM
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Wedge Offline
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-01-2022 12:19 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  I believe that Bob Bowlsby’s retirement timing was a brilliant move. It helps delay serious negotiations about OU and UT leaving early.

It might revive those negotiations, rather than delay them. Seems likely that discussions about OU and UT leaving were getting nowhere at all. Maybe with a new commissioner, they will be able to make a deal that gets a bunch of money for the 8 holdover members.
05-01-2022 01:34 PM
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goofus Offline
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
2025

This may sound naive, but I don't believe Tex, Ok and the SEC want to be totally A-holes on the way out the door. The SEC is the big winner here, they will get a big payday in the long run. No need to totally screw the Big 12 over.

The court of public opinion will gradually start to shift and Oklahoma and Texas will actually be given some credit by Big 12 fans for sticking around for the full length of its GOR contract.

This 2 extra years of stability will give the Big 12 time to integrate the 4 new members into the conference and prepare for the next stage after Tex/Ok leaving, thus making it more likely that the Big 12 maintains its P5 status during the next playoffs and bowls contract negotiations.
(This post was last modified: 05-01-2022 01:53 PM by goofus.)
05-01-2022 01:45 PM
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46566 Offline
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
I say 2024. It gives the Big 12 a year with 14 plus a payout leaving a year early. The Big 12 then potentially add 2 more to go back to 14 in 2026. It also gives the Big 12 2 years to determine if 14 is a good number and which 2 to add.
05-01-2022 02:24 PM
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johnintx Offline
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
I agree with the OP: 2023. At this point, there will be two years of GOR to settle. All parties: the Big 12, OU/UT, the SEC, and the new Big 12 members will be ready to get started with new arrangements.

Bowlsby was a stumbling block to the exit negotiations. He took the OU/UT exit personally, and blew up bridges with ESPN in the process. The new members will come on board in 2023 as OU & UT leave.

The new commissioner will have the responsibilities of 1) negotiating the OU/UT exit and UH/BYU/UCF/UC entrance; and 2) negotiating the new media deal. The Big 12 will benefit from having new blood at the table.
(This post was last modified: 05-01-2022 02:47 PM by johnintx.)
05-01-2022 02:46 PM
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Big 12 fan too Offline
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
If you’re UT it can’t come soon enough. OU too, if they slide at all from last year.

There isn’t a loss more damaging than losing to KU, although losing to the 4 newcomers likely close, and exactly what the B12 is aiming for.

If OU or UT win their division, then the conference, it maintains current views. If they were to repeat last year for 3 more seasons, with the new teams, it is the best possible outcome for the B12
05-01-2022 02:48 PM
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Blue_Trombone Offline
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-01-2022 01:45 PM)goofus Wrote:  2025

This may sound naive, but I don't believe Tex, Ok and the SEC want to be totally A-holes on the way out the door. The SEC is the big winner here, they will get a big payday in the long run. No need to totally screw the Big 12 over.

The court of public opinion will gradually start to shift and Oklahoma and Texas will actually be given some credit by Big 12 fans for sticking around for the full length of its GOR contract.

This 2 extra years of stability will give the Big 12 time to integrate the 4 new members into the conference and prepare for the next stage after Tex/Ok leaving, thus making it more likely that the Big 12 maintains its P5 status during the next playoffs and bowls contract negotiations.

I think it's less about not wanting to be "A-Holes" and more just not wanting to lose dumptrucks of money. I would bet that the accountants at the SEC, OU, and UT have decided that the extra revenue generated by an early move to the SEC would not factor out the added costs of breaking the GOR.
05-01-2022 03:01 PM
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johnintx Offline
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
Something to watch out for is OU's Tier 3 deal. OU's current deal with Bally Sports Southwest/Bally Sports Oklahoma (formerly Fox Sports) ends this year.

I haven't heard or seen anything about a new deal, but look for the length of OU's next Tier 3 deal. OU will need to sign a deal to bridge its Tier 3 rights to their entrance to the SEC, upon which those rights will become part of the SEC Network. If it's a one year deal, a 2023 entrance to the SEC is on the table.

Bally Sports is up for sale yet again, and is not expected to renew. I expect ESPN to come in with some sort of streaming deal. Whether it is rolled into the current Big 12 package is anyone's guess...I expect that it won't.
05-01-2022 03:11 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
July 1st, 2025.

The SEC money is very good, but not anywhere near close to $50m/year better than Big 12 + LHN payments. It has to be that much better to break even. No amount of "emotional harm", which neither Texas nor Oklahoma seem to be suffering in the least, can overcome that level of fiduciary responsibility.

So the Big 12 will have 14 school in 2023-24 and 2024-25. Their media supporters appear to be quite happy to pay for that.
05-01-2022 03:32 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-01-2022 03:32 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  July 1st, 2025.

The SEC money is very good, but not anywhere near close to $50m/year better than Big 12 + LHN payments. It has to be that much better to break even. No amount of "emotional harm", which neither Texas nor Oklahoma seem to be suffering in the least, can overcome that level of fiduciary responsibility.

So the Big 12 will have 14 school in 2023-24 and 2024-25. Their media supporters appear to be quite happy to pay for that.

Stu the day OU and UT come to play the SEC will earn 20 million more per school. The LHN and B12 revenue equals 58 million next year, a sum OU doesn't get. The SEC will jump from 55 million (54.8 last year) to ~75.5 and that's 17 million more than B12 and LHN.

I think it happens in Fall of '23. Each will have served a 2 year notice. The B12 will have added inventory and completing their contracted payouts will be easy for the nets and many of those schools will still want to schedule them. No monetary damage for the contracted period and no loss of the number of games (actually an increase) and no damages. Just an exit fee.
05-01-2022 03:48 PM
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jimrtex Offline
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-01-2022 03:48 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(05-01-2022 03:32 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  July 1st, 2025.

The SEC money is very good, but not anywhere near close to $50m/year better than Big 12 + LHN payments. It has to be that much better to break even. No amount of "emotional harm", which neither Texas nor Oklahoma seem to be suffering in the least, can overcome that level of fiduciary responsibility.

So the Big 12 will have 14 school in 2023-24 and 2024-25. Their media supporters appear to be quite happy to pay for that.

Stu the day OU and UT come to play the SEC will earn 20 million more per school. The LHN and B12 revenue equals 58 million next year, a sum OU doesn't get. The SEC will jump from 55 million (54.8 last year) to ~75.5 and that's 17 million more than B12 and LHN.

I think it happens in Fall of '23. Each will have served a 2 year notice. The B12 will have added inventory and completing their contracted payouts will be easy for the nets and many of those schools will still want to schedule them. No monetary damage for the contracted period and no loss of the number of games (actually an increase) and no damages. Just an exit fee.
Perhaps they will split. Texas in 2023 because they want a better chance to be bowl eligible.

Oklahoma in 2025 because they have a chance to be in the CFP.
05-01-2022 04:09 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
I will still be surprised if they remain to 2025.

But I have gone from thinking 2023 to now thinking it could be 2024.
05-01-2022 04:13 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-01-2022 04:13 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I will still be surprised if they remain to 2025.

But I have gone from thinking 2023 to now thinking it could be 2024.

"You just keep thinking Butch! That's what you're good at!"

Meanwhile the deficit posse closes in and Oklahoma says to Texas, "Got any suggestions?" Texas says, "We'll jump." and gestures below, "Into the SEC." Oklahoma responds, "Are you nuts?" Texas says, "Hell! The fall alone will probably kill us!"
(This post was last modified: 05-01-2022 04:24 PM by JRsec.)
05-01-2022 04:21 PM
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-01-2022 02:46 PM)johnintx Wrote:  I agree with the OP: 2023. At this point, there will be two years of GOR to settle. All parties: the Big 12, OU/UT, the SEC, and the new Big 12 members will be ready to get started with new arrangements.

Bowlsby was a stumbling block to the exit negotiations. He took the OU/UT exit personally, and blew up bridges with ESPN in the process. The new members will come on board in 2023 as OU & UT leave.

The new commissioner will have the responsibilities of 1) negotiating the OU/UT exit and UH/BYU/UCF/UC entrance; and 2) negotiating the new media deal. The Big 12 will benefit from having new blood at the table.

I hope it's 2023 that we finally leave the Big XII. I'm so done with the Big XII. The SEC has been wanting UT since the late 1980s to join. We were supposed to go with Arkansas but got blocked back then by all our former SWC mates especially A&M. Then we got a new administration that got a riding crop up its butt and refused to fight it. They wanted UT to be more like Cal Berserkly. The SEC was below their standards.

Bowlsby did take it UT-OU decision personally. You could see it from the last football season. All he had to do was keep OU happy by moving the Nebraska game to primetime. He didn't and everyone saw what happened.

I'm excited to to playing in the SEC. It's where we should have been all along. The year we do join and renew our rivalry with A&M, please invest heavily in mason jars companies. :)
05-01-2022 04:47 PM
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-01-2022 01:45 PM)goofus Wrote:  2025 ... This may sound naive, but I don't believe Tex, Ok and the SEC want to be totally A-holes on the way out the door. The SEC is the big winner here, they will get a big payday in the long run. No need to totally screw the Big 12 over.

The court of public opinion will gradually start to shift and Oklahoma and Texas will actually be given some credit by Big 12 fans for sticking around for the full length of its GOR contract.

(05-01-2022 04:47 PM)RC Horn Wrote:  I hope it's 2023 that we finally leave the Big XII. I'm so done with the Big XII.

I'm excited to to playing in the SEC. It's where we should have been all along.

07-coffee3
05-01-2022 04:55 PM
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Acres Offline
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-01-2022 04:09 PM)jimrtex Wrote:  
(05-01-2022 03:48 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(05-01-2022 03:32 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  July 1st, 2025.

The SEC money is very good, but not anywhere near close to $50m/year better than Big 12 + LHN payments. It has to be that much better to break even. No amount of "emotional harm", which neither Texas nor Oklahoma seem to be suffering in the least, can overcome that level of fiduciary responsibility.

So the Big 12 will have 14 school in 2023-24 and 2024-25. Their media supporters appear to be quite happy to pay for that.

Stu the day OU and UT come to play the SEC will earn 20 million more per school. The LHN and B12 revenue equals 58 million next year, a sum OU doesn't get. The SEC will jump from 55 million (54.8 last year) to ~75.5 and that's 17 million more than B12 and LHN.

I think it happens in Fall of '23. Each will have served a 2 year notice. The B12 will have added inventory and completing their contracted payouts will be easy for the nets and many of those schools will still want to schedule them. No monetary damage for the contracted period and no loss of the number of games (actually an increase) and no damages. Just an exit fee.
Perhaps they will split. Texas in 2023 because they want a better chance to be bowl eligible.

Oklahoma in 2025 because they have a chance to be in the CFP.

Reference to bolded part, Both have not yet provided the 18 month notice to leave the conference. The only notice they provided was that they will not be renewing the GOR that expires in 2025. These two are separate. The former deals with conference membership while the latter deals with conference media deal distributions (GOR) which is tied to existing media deal.

Essentially they notified the big12 in July 2021 that they are not going to be party to any future conference media deal renewal, that involves a GOR. While it indicates intent to leave the conference, it does not make it official.

Both need to provide the 18 month exit notice by May 2023 if they intend to leave July 2025.
(This post was last modified: 05-01-2022 05:35 PM by Acres.)
05-01-2022 05:01 PM
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-01-2022 01:34 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(05-01-2022 12:19 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  I believe that Bob Bowlsby’s retirement timing was a brilliant move. It helps delay serious negotiations about OU and UT leaving early.

It might revive those negotiations, rather than delay them. Seems likely that discussions about OU and UT leaving were getting nowhere at all. Maybe with a new commissioner, they will be able to make a deal that gets a bunch of money for the 8 holdover members.

Yeah. Bowlsby got his feelings hurt and wasn't a good person to deal with it.
05-01-2022 06:30 PM
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