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When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
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Post: #81
RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-10-2022 11:42 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(05-10-2022 11:35 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(05-10-2022 11:27 AM)Eggszecutor Wrote:  
(05-05-2022 03:12 PM)texoma Wrote:  
(05-05-2022 09:11 AM)Eggszecutor Wrote:  There is no reason for the Big XII to let them go early. If OU/UT want to leave early, they will have to pay.

I believe that is exactly what I said. 05-nono

If by the negotiated fee you mean whatever is contractually obligated by OU/UT to break the contract, then we said the same thing.

The Big XII has no incentive to negotiate a lower buyout to let OU/UT leave. There is nothing it in for them except bringing in less money for their schools. Why would they do that?

To avoid grey legal battles trying to enforce the contract and alienating UT and OU and possibly the SEC.
The Big 12 welcomes discovery and because of the asymmetrical costs, the legal process.

And alienation UT and OU and possibly the SEC is message board fan talk. Gentlemen agreements of favorable future relations don’t lend to much of a discount rate in these situations. Those future positive interactions get leveraged or monetized now, or they don’t exist with respect to the settlement.

The Big 12 is willing to work with the SEC and ESPN. OU and UT are less important. Thus far, there hasn’t been a real incentive by any side, as there are too many looming disruptions to know what a good settlement looks like.

What’s the rush from the Big 12 POV? If things blow up from legal rulings, any settlement is moot, if not void. Even OU doesn’t have huge incentive with CFP at 4, save cash and get a better chance of playoffs for new coach isn’t a bad hand. SEC/ESPN could make more, but the main reason it was leaked early was to lock in OU and UT from other conferences, not because of getting them in before 2025. In terms of branding, there’s upside to OU getting a 3rd SEC playoff spot, which is nearly impossible if they move early.

In many ways, staying until 2025 is a settlement. The only party that loses is UT. They also have the means to prevent that

Texas used to rotate Houston and Rice. They quit playing Houston after the fiasco with their dangerous temporary bleachers. Alienating Texas an Oklahoma is a real possibility which is a negative for the Big 12 schools.

There is no certainty the Big 12 gets a full settlement in court. Its a huge risk to take it to court vs. a negotiated settlement. For Texas and OU, all they would be risking is attorney's fees. It will be settled and is highly unlikely to ever get close to court.

I suspect the idea before Aggie sabotage, was to announce after the 2021 season. Then there would be a max of 3 lame duck years, with the idea of one or two. Now we have a minimum of 2 lame duck years with possibly 4.
05-10-2022 02:52 PM
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texoma Offline
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Post: #82
RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-10-2022 02:52 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(05-10-2022 11:42 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(05-10-2022 11:35 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(05-10-2022 11:27 AM)Eggszecutor Wrote:  
(05-05-2022 03:12 PM)texoma Wrote:  I believe that is exactly what I said. 05-nono

If by the negotiated fee you mean whatever is contractually obligated by OU/UT to break the contract, then we said the same thing.

The Big XII has no incentive to negotiate a lower buyout to let OU/UT leave. There is nothing it in for them except bringing in less money for their schools. Why would they do that?

To avoid grey legal battles trying to enforce the contract and alienating UT and OU and possibly the SEC.
The Big 12 welcomes discovery and because of the asymmetrical costs, the legal process.

And alienation UT and OU and possibly the SEC is message board fan talk. Gentlemen agreements of favorable future relations don’t lend to much of a discount rate in these situations. Those future positive interactions get leveraged or monetized now, or they don’t exist with respect to the settlement.

The Big 12 is willing to work with the SEC and ESPN. OU and UT are less important. Thus far, there hasn’t been a real incentive by any side, as there are too many looming disruptions to know what a good settlement looks like.

What’s the rush from the Big 12 POV? If things blow up from legal rulings, any settlement is moot, if not void. Even OU doesn’t have huge incentive with CFP at 4, save cash and get a better chance of playoffs for new coach isn’t a bad hand. SEC/ESPN could make more, but the main reason it was leaked early was to lock in OU and UT from other conferences, not because of getting them in before 2025. In terms of branding, there’s upside to OU getting a 3rd SEC playoff spot, which is nearly impossible if they move early.

In many ways, staying until 2025 is a settlement. The only party that loses is UT. They also have the means to prevent that

Texas used to rotate Houston and Rice. They quit playing Houston after the fiasco with their dangerous temporary bleachers. Alienating Texas an Oklahoma is a real possibility which is a negative for the Big 12 schools.

There is no certainty the Big 12 gets a full settlement in court. Its a huge risk to take it to court vs. a negotiated settlement. For Texas and OU, all they would be risking is attorney's fees. It will be settled and is highly unlikely to ever get close to court.

I suspect the idea before Aggie sabotage, was to announce after the 2021 season. Then there would be a max of 3 lame duck years, with the idea of one or two. Now we have a minimum of 2 lame duck years with possibly 4.

I agree, it will never get to court. The exit fees will be negotiated.

And it was NOT leaked early to lock in OU and UT from other conferences, every body should know that. As you said the Aggies leaked it early to try and sabotage OU and UT going to the SEC.
05-10-2022 03:18 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #83
RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-10-2022 03:18 PM)texoma Wrote:  
(05-10-2022 02:52 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(05-10-2022 11:42 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(05-10-2022 11:35 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(05-10-2022 11:27 AM)Eggszecutor Wrote:  If by the negotiated fee you mean whatever is contractually obligated by OU/UT to break the contract, then we said the same thing.

The Big XII has no incentive to negotiate a lower buyout to let OU/UT leave. There is nothing it in for them except bringing in less money for their schools. Why would they do that?

To avoid grey legal battles trying to enforce the contract and alienating UT and OU and possibly the SEC.
The Big 12 welcomes discovery and because of the asymmetrical costs, the legal process.

And alienation UT and OU and possibly the SEC is message board fan talk. Gentlemen agreements of favorable future relations don’t lend to much of a discount rate in these situations. Those future positive interactions get leveraged or monetized now, or they don’t exist with respect to the settlement.

The Big 12 is willing to work with the SEC and ESPN. OU and UT are less important. Thus far, there hasn’t been a real incentive by any side, as there are too many looming disruptions to know what a good settlement looks like.

What’s the rush from the Big 12 POV? If things blow up from legal rulings, any settlement is moot, if not void. Even OU doesn’t have huge incentive with CFP at 4, save cash and get a better chance of playoffs for new coach isn’t a bad hand. SEC/ESPN could make more, but the main reason it was leaked early was to lock in OU and UT from other conferences, not because of getting them in before 2025. In terms of branding, there’s upside to OU getting a 3rd SEC playoff spot, which is nearly impossible if they move early.

In many ways, staying until 2025 is a settlement. The only party that loses is UT. They also have the means to prevent that

Texas used to rotate Houston and Rice. They quit playing Houston after the fiasco with their dangerous temporary bleachers. Alienating Texas an Oklahoma is a real possibility which is a negative for the Big 12 schools.

There is no certainty the Big 12 gets a full settlement in court. Its a huge risk to take it to court vs. a negotiated settlement. For Texas and OU, all they would be risking is attorney's fees. It will be settled and is highly unlikely to ever get close to court.

I suspect the idea before Aggie sabotage, was to announce after the 2021 season. Then there would be a max of 3 lame duck years, with the idea of one or two. Now we have a minimum of 2 lame duck years with possibly 4.

I agree, it will never get to court. The exit fees will be negotiated.

And it was NOT leaked early to lock in OU and UT from other conferences, every body should know that. As you said the Aggies leaked it early to try and sabotage OU and UT going to the SEC.

Agree with both of you. And the Spring Meeting for 2022 was likely the set time of announcement. The Aggie AD is the culprit plain and simple. Not their president who behaved appropriately throughout.
05-10-2022 03:36 PM
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Thiefery Offline
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Post: #84
RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
I too, think that the upcoming 2022 season will also be the final season that UT and ou are a part of the Big12 conference.

I read somewhere that there was a strong chance that CBS would opt out of the final year of their contract. So the money will be there and more importantly the possibility of different matchups with the new scheduling (pod system).
05-11-2022 09:34 AM
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Thiefery Offline
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Post: #85
RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
an ou $9.95er posted a few days ago that recruits are being told that they will be playing in the SEC in '23. Obviously the staff can't confirm that but it's what visiting recruits have been saying.

And now with UT $9.95ers saying a&m are arguing to not be in the same pod as UT.. I think this really is the last season for Texas to be in the Big12 as well. Can't wait.
05-13-2022 09:10 AM
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Post: #86
RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
According to Chris Del Conte (Texas's AD), the Longhorn Network ends after Texas joins the SEC.

https://awfulannouncing.com/ncaa/texas-a...um=twitter
05-13-2022 10:56 AM
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Big 12 fan too Offline
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Post: #87
RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-10-2022 02:52 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(05-10-2022 11:42 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(05-10-2022 11:35 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(05-10-2022 11:27 AM)Eggszecutor Wrote:  
(05-05-2022 03:12 PM)texoma Wrote:  I believe that is exactly what I said. 05-nono

If by the negotiated fee you mean whatever is contractually obligated by OU/UT to break the contract, then we said the same thing.

The Big XII has no incentive to negotiate a lower buyout to let OU/UT leave. There is nothing it in for them except bringing in less money for their schools. Why would they do that?

To avoid grey legal battles trying to enforce the contract and alienating UT and OU and possibly the SEC.
The Big 12 welcomes discovery and because of the asymmetrical costs, the legal process.

And alienation UT and OU and possibly the SEC is message board fan talk. Gentlemen agreements of favorable future relations don’t lend to much of a discount rate in these situations. Those future positive interactions get leveraged or monetized now, or they don’t exist with respect to the settlement.

The Big 12 is willing to work with the SEC and ESPN. OU and UT are less important. Thus far, there hasn’t been a real incentive by any side, as there are too many looming disruptions to know what a good settlement looks like.

What’s the rush from the Big 12 POV? If things blow up from legal rulings, any settlement is moot, if not void. Even OU doesn’t have huge incentive with CFP at 4, save cash and get a better chance of playoffs for new coach isn’t a bad hand. SEC/ESPN could make more, but the main reason it was leaked early was to lock in OU and UT from other conferences, not because of getting them in before 2025. In terms of branding, there’s upside to OU getting a 3rd SEC playoff spot, which is nearly impossible if they move early.

In many ways, staying until 2025 is a settlement. The only party that loses is UT. They also have the means to prevent that

Texas used to rotate Houston and Rice. They quit playing Houston after the fiasco with their dangerous temporary bleachers. Alienating Texas an Oklahoma is a real possibility which is a negative for the Big 12 schools.

There is no certainty the Big 12 gets a full settlement in court. Its a huge risk to take it to court vs. a negotiated settlement. For Texas and OU, all they would be risking is attorney's fees. It will be settled and is highly unlikely to ever get close to court.

I suspect the idea before Aggie sabotage, was to announce after the 2021 season. Then there would be a max of 3 lame duck years, with the idea of one or two. Now we have a minimum of 2 lame duck years with possibly 4.
LOL.
Alienating UT and OU is worth the risk. When the costs are asymmetrical, you don't discount settlements based on someone's verbal promise you'll still be friends. There has to tangible exchange of utility.

The risk-reward is asymmetrical. This is how settlements work. The Big 12 has much more incentive to let it get to court, and therefore will seek an advantageous settlement. I am not contending there won't be a settlement, but the discount rate won't come from things like staying friends and gentleman agreements about future games. Things that were readily admitted as not likely to be genuine here. People are taking this personally and being fans. It is just business.

It is possible the leak was 100% incompetence. But that also has to be the SEC line given the implications to ESPN. Maybe it really did just luck into what was a pretty good move, as the Pac12 and BIG would have made moves for landing both between now and 2025.

Also, if it was a leak, how fortuitous, as otherwise, OU and UT are definitely wanting to avoid discovery.
(This post was last modified: 05-13-2022 11:06 AM by Big 12 fan too.)
05-13-2022 11:05 AM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #88
RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-10-2022 03:18 PM)texoma Wrote:  
(05-10-2022 02:52 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(05-10-2022 11:42 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(05-10-2022 11:35 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(05-10-2022 11:27 AM)Eggszecutor Wrote:  If by the negotiated fee you mean whatever is contractually obligated by OU/UT to break the contract, then we said the same thing.

The Big XII has no incentive to negotiate a lower buyout to let OU/UT leave. There is nothing it in for them except bringing in less money for their schools. Why would they do that?

To avoid grey legal battles trying to enforce the contract and alienating UT and OU and possibly the SEC.
The Big 12 welcomes discovery and because of the asymmetrical costs, the legal process.

And alienation UT and OU and possibly the SEC is message board fan talk. Gentlemen agreements of favorable future relations don’t lend to much of a discount rate in these situations. Those future positive interactions get leveraged or monetized now, or they don’t exist with respect to the settlement.

The Big 12 is willing to work with the SEC and ESPN. OU and UT are less important. Thus far, there hasn’t been a real incentive by any side, as there are too many looming disruptions to know what a good settlement looks like.

What’s the rush from the Big 12 POV? If things blow up from legal rulings, any settlement is moot, if not void. Even OU doesn’t have huge incentive with CFP at 4, save cash and get a better chance of playoffs for new coach isn’t a bad hand. SEC/ESPN could make more, but the main reason it was leaked early was to lock in OU and UT from other conferences, not because of getting them in before 2025. In terms of branding, there’s upside to OU getting a 3rd SEC playoff spot, which is nearly impossible if they move early.

In many ways, staying until 2025 is a settlement. The only party that loses is UT. They also have the means to prevent that

Texas used to rotate Houston and Rice. They quit playing Houston after the fiasco with their dangerous temporary bleachers. Alienating Texas an Oklahoma is a real possibility which is a negative for the Big 12 schools.

There is no certainty the Big 12 gets a full settlement in court. Its a huge risk to take it to court vs. a negotiated settlement. For Texas and OU, all they would be risking is attorney's fees. It will be settled and is highly unlikely to ever get close to court.

I suspect the idea before Aggie sabotage, was to announce after the 2021 season. Then there would be a max of 3 lame duck years, with the idea of one or two. Now we have a minimum of 2 lame duck years with possibly 4.

I agree, it will never get to court. The exit fees will be negotiated.

And it was NOT leaked early to lock in OU and UT from other conferences, every body should know that. As you said the Aggies leaked it early to try and sabotage OU and UT going to the SEC.

I agree, but in this case, there actually doesnt have to be any settlement negotiated at all. The "settlement" is the control and ownership of the TV rights themselves. Oklahoma and UT could leave without a settlement and the penalty would simply be that the Big12 would continue to own the rights for Texas and Oklahoma home games.

The truth is, the SEC would add 4 valuable UT conference away games and 4 Oklahoma conference away games. The Big12 would maintain control of all UT and OK home games. This is where it gets interesting. ESPN and FOX could not cut the Big12 deal because ESPN and FOX are still receiving all the rights those networks contracted for originally (plus they are additionally getting BYU, UH, UC, and UCF games from 2023 on). The SEC will be adding some interesting UT/OK matchups---even though they wont get any home games from those schools. The problem is UT/OK would no longer be getting a share of Big12 revenue.

Now the bottom line. ESPN owns half of the rights the Big12, all the rights to LHN, and, will soon own all the rights to the SEC. So, basically, it doesnt really matter to ESPN. They will get all the rights to any UT/OK SEC away games, half the rights to any UT/OK home games (split with FOX), and any rights to UT 3rd tier home games. ESPN will only lose access to half of Oklahoma's home games (same as the current arrangement) and slightly less than half of UT's home games (1 game less than half because they have the rights to the UT 3rd tier game--which is the same as the current arrangement). The problem is the SEC wont get the full benefit of the new additions until 2025---but they will get some benefit (away games and all the LHN content for the SEC Network)---thus Im guessing the SEC can simply negotiate a reduced payout deal for UT/OK that (that pays as much or more than the current Big12 deal) and lasts until the the full UT/OK rights roll over to the SEC.

That would allow UT/OK to move to the SEC in 2023----paying only a Big-12 exit fee (probably around 70 million each) and nothing more. There would be no need to successfully reach a GOR settlement for the move to happen. The Big 12 hanging onto UT/OK TV rights for a few years is actually fairly manageable due to the current way the tv rights ownership has shaken out among the networks. The odd outcome is that FOX will find itself owning a handful of high end SEC games for a couple of years. The point is, UT/OK dont necessarily have to come to a GOR settlement with the Big12 to move early. They could potentially work out a deal with the SEC for a reduced payout in those first few years and leave the Big12 whenever they wish paying just the base exit fee (which is the same in 2023 as it would be in 2025).
(This post was last modified: 05-13-2022 11:44 AM by Attackcoog.)
05-13-2022 11:12 AM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #89
RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-13-2022 11:12 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(05-10-2022 03:18 PM)texoma Wrote:  
(05-10-2022 02:52 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(05-10-2022 11:42 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(05-10-2022 11:35 AM)bullet Wrote:  To avoid grey legal battles trying to enforce the contract and alienating UT and OU and possibly the SEC.
The Big 12 welcomes discovery and because of the asymmetrical costs, the legal process.

And alienation UT and OU and possibly the SEC is message board fan talk. Gentlemen agreements of favorable future relations don’t lend to much of a discount rate in these situations. Those future positive interactions get leveraged or monetized now, or they don’t exist with respect to the settlement.

The Big 12 is willing to work with the SEC and ESPN. OU and UT are less important. Thus far, there hasn’t been a real incentive by any side, as there are too many looming disruptions to know what a good settlement looks like.

What’s the rush from the Big 12 POV? If things blow up from legal rulings, any settlement is moot, if not void. Even OU doesn’t have huge incentive with CFP at 4, save cash and get a better chance of playoffs for new coach isn’t a bad hand. SEC/ESPN could make more, but the main reason it was leaked early was to lock in OU and UT from other conferences, not because of getting them in before 2025. In terms of branding, there’s upside to OU getting a 3rd SEC playoff spot, which is nearly impossible if they move early.

In many ways, staying until 2025 is a settlement. The only party that loses is UT. They also have the means to prevent that

Texas used to rotate Houston and Rice. They quit playing Houston after the fiasco with their dangerous temporary bleachers. Alienating Texas an Oklahoma is a real possibility which is a negative for the Big 12 schools.

There is no certainty the Big 12 gets a full settlement in court. Its a huge risk to take it to court vs. a negotiated settlement. For Texas and OU, all they would be risking is attorney's fees. It will be settled and is highly unlikely to ever get close to court.

I suspect the idea before Aggie sabotage, was to announce after the 2021 season. Then there would be a max of 3 lame duck years, with the idea of one or two. Now we have a minimum of 2 lame duck years with possibly 4.

I agree, it will never get to court. The exit fees will be negotiated.

And it was NOT leaked early to lock in OU and UT from other conferences, every body should know that. As you said the Aggies leaked it early to try and sabotage OU and UT going to the SEC.

I agree, but in this case, there actually doesnt have to be any settlement negotiated at all. The "settlement" is the control and ownership of the TV rights themselves. Oklahoma and UT could leave without a settlement and the penalty would simply be that the Big12 would continue to own the rights for Texas and Oklahoma home games.

The truth is, the SEC would add 4 valuable UT conference away games and 4 Oklahoma conference away games. The Big12 would maintain control of all UT and OK home games. This is where it gets interesting. ESPN and FOX could not cut the Big12 deal because ESPN and FOX are still receiving all the rights those networks contracted for originally (plus they are additionally getting BYU, UH, UC, and UCF games from 2023 on). The SEC will be adding some interesting UT/OK matchups---even though they wont get any home games from those schools. The problem is UT/OK would no longer be getting a share of Big12 revenue.

Now the bottom line. ESPN owns half of the rights the Big12, all the rights to LHN, and, will soon own all the rights to the SEC. So, basically, it doesnt really matter to ESPN. They will get all the rights to any UT/OK SEC away games, half the rights to any UT/OK home games (split with FOX), and any rights to UT 3rd tier home games. ESPN will only lose access to half of Oklahoma's home games and slightly less than half of UT's home games (1 game less than half because they have the rights to the UT 3rd tier game). The problem is the SEC wont get the full benefit of the new additions until 2025---but they will get some benefit (away games and all the LHN content for the SEC Network)---thus Im guessing the SEC can simply negotiate a reduced payout deal for UT/OK that (that pays as much or more than the current Big12 deal) and lasts until the the full UT/OK rights roll over to the SEC.

That would allow UT/OK to move to the SEC in 2023----paying only a Big-12 exit fee (probably around 70 million each) and nothing more. There would be no need to successfully reach a GOR settlement for the move to happen. The Big 12 hanging onto UT/OK TV rights for a few years is actually fairly manageable due to the current way the tv rights ownership has shaken out among the networks. The odd outcome is that FOX will find itself owning a handful of high end SEC games for a couple of years. The point is, UT/OK dont necessarily have to come to a GOR settlement with the Big12 to move early. They could potentially work out a deal with the SEC for a reduced payout in those first few years and leave the Big12 whenever they wish paying just the base exit fee (which is the same in 2023 as it would be in 2025).

Excellent points.

The one fly in the ointment I see is that once the exit fees were balanced against that reduced SEC payout, in effect OU and TX will be receiving no conference money for two years, 2023 and 2024.

That's a lot to swallow, IMO, particularly for Oklahoma. Texas seems to be a bottomless pit of money and could probably rustle up $80 million or so in extra donations to cover that in a matter of months, but for Oklahoma, it might be tougher.
(This post was last modified: 05-13-2022 11:40 AM by quo vadis.)
05-13-2022 11:39 AM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #90
RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-13-2022 11:39 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-13-2022 11:12 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(05-10-2022 03:18 PM)texoma Wrote:  
(05-10-2022 02:52 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(05-10-2022 11:42 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  The Big 12 welcomes discovery and because of the asymmetrical costs, the legal process.

And alienation UT and OU and possibly the SEC is message board fan talk. Gentlemen agreements of favorable future relations don’t lend to much of a discount rate in these situations. Those future positive interactions get leveraged or monetized now, or they don’t exist with respect to the settlement.

The Big 12 is willing to work with the SEC and ESPN. OU and UT are less important. Thus far, there hasn’t been a real incentive by any side, as there are too many looming disruptions to know what a good settlement looks like.

What’s the rush from the Big 12 POV? If things blow up from legal rulings, any settlement is moot, if not void. Even OU doesn’t have huge incentive with CFP at 4, save cash and get a better chance of playoffs for new coach isn’t a bad hand. SEC/ESPN could make more, but the main reason it was leaked early was to lock in OU and UT from other conferences, not because of getting them in before 2025. In terms of branding, there’s upside to OU getting a 3rd SEC playoff spot, which is nearly impossible if they move early.

In many ways, staying until 2025 is a settlement. The only party that loses is UT. They also have the means to prevent that

Texas used to rotate Houston and Rice. They quit playing Houston after the fiasco with their dangerous temporary bleachers. Alienating Texas an Oklahoma is a real possibility which is a negative for the Big 12 schools.

There is no certainty the Big 12 gets a full settlement in court. Its a huge risk to take it to court vs. a negotiated settlement. For Texas and OU, all they would be risking is attorney's fees. It will be settled and is highly unlikely to ever get close to court.

I suspect the idea before Aggie sabotage, was to announce after the 2021 season. Then there would be a max of 3 lame duck years, with the idea of one or two. Now we have a minimum of 2 lame duck years with possibly 4.

I agree, it will never get to court. The exit fees will be negotiated.

And it was NOT leaked early to lock in OU and UT from other conferences, every body should know that. As you said the Aggies leaked it early to try and sabotage OU and UT going to the SEC.

I agree, but in this case, there actually doesnt have to be any settlement negotiated at all. The "settlement" is the control and ownership of the TV rights themselves. Oklahoma and UT could leave without a settlement and the penalty would simply be that the Big12 would continue to own the rights for Texas and Oklahoma home games.

The truth is, the SEC would add 4 valuable UT conference away games and 4 Oklahoma conference away games. The Big12 would maintain control of all UT and OK home games. This is where it gets interesting. ESPN and FOX could not cut the Big12 deal because ESPN and FOX are still receiving all the rights those networks contracted for originally (plus they are additionally getting BYU, UH, UC, and UCF games from 2023 on). The SEC will be adding some interesting UT/OK matchups---even though they wont get any home games from those schools. The problem is UT/OK would no longer be getting a share of Big12 revenue.

Now the bottom line. ESPN owns half of the rights the Big12, all the rights to LHN, and, will soon own all the rights to the SEC. So, basically, it doesnt really matter to ESPN. They will get all the rights to any UT/OK SEC away games, half the rights to any UT/OK home games (split with FOX), and any rights to UT 3rd tier home games. ESPN will only lose access to half of Oklahoma's home games and slightly less than half of UT's home games (1 game less than half because they have the rights to the UT 3rd tier game). The problem is the SEC wont get the full benefit of the new additions until 2025---but they will get some benefit (away games and all the LHN content for the SEC Network)---thus Im guessing the SEC can simply negotiate a reduced payout deal for UT/OK that (that pays as much or more than the current Big12 deal) and lasts until the the full UT/OK rights roll over to the SEC.

That would allow UT/OK to move to the SEC in 2023----paying only a Big-12 exit fee (probably around 70 million each) and nothing more. There would be no need to successfully reach a GOR settlement for the move to happen. The Big 12 hanging onto UT/OK TV rights for a few years is actually fairly manageable due to the current way the tv rights ownership has shaken out among the networks. The odd outcome is that FOX will find itself owning a handful of high end SEC games for a couple of years. The point is, UT/OK dont necessarily have to come to a GOR settlement with the Big12 to move early. They could potentially work out a deal with the SEC for a reduced payout in those first few years and leave the Big12 whenever they wish paying just the base exit fee (which is the same in 2023 as it would be in 2025).

Excellent points.

The one fly in the ointment I see is that once the exit fees were balanced against that reduced SEC payout, in effect OU and TX will be receiving no conference money for two years, 2023 and 2024.

That's a lot to swallow, IMO, particularly for Oklahoma. Texas seems to be a bottomless pit of money and could probably rustle up $80 million or so in extra donations to cover that in a matter of months, but for Oklahoma, it might be tougher.

They have to pay the 70 million base exit fee no matter what they do. They can get a full share SEC payout if the SEC gets full rights---but that would REQUIRE a financial GOR settlement with the Big12---which would likely offset any benefit from receiving a full SEC share for UT/OK. Im just making the point that UT/OK could potentially bolt without reaching a settlement on the GOR. Its probably just as financially workable as bolting with a settlement. Either way involves some pain.
(This post was last modified: 05-13-2022 11:51 AM by Attackcoog.)
05-13-2022 11:50 AM
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BatonRougeEscapee Offline
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-13-2022 11:39 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-13-2022 11:12 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(05-10-2022 03:18 PM)texoma Wrote:  
(05-10-2022 02:52 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(05-10-2022 11:42 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  The Big 12 welcomes discovery and because of the asymmetrical costs, the legal process.

And alienation UT and OU and possibly the SEC is message board fan talk. Gentlemen agreements of favorable future relations don’t lend to much of a discount rate in these situations. Those future positive interactions get leveraged or monetized now, or they don’t exist with respect to the settlement.

The Big 12 is willing to work with the SEC and ESPN. OU and UT are less important. Thus far, there hasn’t been a real incentive by any side, as there are too many looming disruptions to know what a good settlement looks like.

What’s the rush from the Big 12 POV? If things blow up from legal rulings, any settlement is moot, if not void. Even OU doesn’t have huge incentive with CFP at 4, save cash and get a better chance of playoffs for new coach isn’t a bad hand. SEC/ESPN could make more, but the main reason it was leaked early was to lock in OU and UT from other conferences, not because of getting them in before 2025. In terms of branding, there’s upside to OU getting a 3rd SEC playoff spot, which is nearly impossible if they move early.

In many ways, staying until 2025 is a settlement. The only party that loses is UT. They also have the means to prevent that

Texas used to rotate Houston and Rice. They quit playing Houston after the fiasco with their dangerous temporary bleachers. Alienating Texas an Oklahoma is a real possibility which is a negative for the Big 12 schools.

There is no certainty the Big 12 gets a full settlement in court. Its a huge risk to take it to court vs. a negotiated settlement. For Texas and OU, all they would be risking is attorney's fees. It will be settled and is highly unlikely to ever get close to court.

I suspect the idea before Aggie sabotage, was to announce after the 2021 season. Then there would be a max of 3 lame duck years, with the idea of one or two. Now we have a minimum of 2 lame duck years with possibly 4.

I agree, it will never get to court. The exit fees will be negotiated.

And it was NOT leaked early to lock in OU and UT from other conferences, every body should know that. As you said the Aggies leaked it early to try and sabotage OU and UT going to the SEC.

I agree, but in this case, there actually doesnt have to be any settlement negotiated at all. The "settlement" is the control and ownership of the TV rights themselves. Oklahoma and UT could leave without a settlement and the penalty would simply be that the Big12 would continue to own the rights for Texas and Oklahoma home games.

The truth is, the SEC would add 4 valuable UT conference away games and 4 Oklahoma conference away games. The Big12 would maintain control of all UT and OK home games. This is where it gets interesting. ESPN and FOX could not cut the Big12 deal because ESPN and FOX are still receiving all the rights those networks contracted for originally (plus they are additionally getting BYU, UH, UC, and UCF games from 2023 on). The SEC will be adding some interesting UT/OK matchups---even though they wont get any home games from those schools. The problem is UT/OK would no longer be getting a share of Big12 revenue.

Now the bottom line. ESPN owns half of the rights the Big12, all the rights to LHN, and, will soon own all the rights to the SEC. So, basically, it doesnt really matter to ESPN. They will get all the rights to any UT/OK SEC away games, half the rights to any UT/OK home games (split with FOX), and any rights to UT 3rd tier home games. ESPN will only lose access to half of Oklahoma's home games and slightly less than half of UT's home games (1 game less than half because they have the rights to the UT 3rd tier game). The problem is the SEC wont get the full benefit of the new additions until 2025---but they will get some benefit (away games and all the LHN content for the SEC Network)---thus Im guessing the SEC can simply negotiate a reduced payout deal for UT/OK that (that pays as much or more than the current Big12 deal) and lasts until the the full UT/OK rights roll over to the SEC.

That would allow UT/OK to move to the SEC in 2023----paying only a Big-12 exit fee (probably around 70 million each) and nothing more. There would be no need to successfully reach a GOR settlement for the move to happen. The Big 12 hanging onto UT/OK TV rights for a few years is actually fairly manageable due to the current way the tv rights ownership has shaken out among the networks. The odd outcome is that FOX will find itself owning a handful of high end SEC games for a couple of years. The point is, UT/OK dont necessarily have to come to a GOR settlement with the Big12 to move early. They could potentially work out a deal with the SEC for a reduced payout in those first few years and leave the Big12 whenever they wish paying just the base exit fee (which is the same in 2023 as it would be in 2025).

Excellent points.

The one fly in the ointment I see is that once the exit fees were balanced against that reduced SEC payout, in effect OU and TX will be receiving no conference money for two years, 2023 and 2024.

That's a lot to swallow, IMO, particularly for Oklahoma. Texas seems to be a bottomless pit of money and could probably rustle up $80 million or so in extra donations to cover that in a matter of months, but for Oklahoma, it might be tougher.

I believe if the Big XII controls and broadcasts OU and UT games then the Big XII has to pay them for those games or else they are not fulfilling the contract. I suppose those rights fees could be traded for other monies owed but you can't show their games and not compensate them. In that case, OU and UT would be in compliance and the Big XII would be breaching the GOR contract.
05-13-2022 11:56 AM
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PeteTheChop Offline
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-13-2022 10:56 AM)schmolik Wrote:  According to Chris Del Conte (Texas's AD), the Longhorn Network ends after Texas joins the SEC.

If a tree falls and nobody hears it ...
05-13-2022 01:12 PM
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Wedge Offline
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-13-2022 11:50 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  They have to pay the 70 million base exit fee no matter what they do. They can get a full share SEC payout if the SEC gets full rights---but that would REQUIRE a financial GOR settlement with the Big12---which would likely offset any benefit from receiving a full SEC share for UT/OK. Im just making the point that UT/OK could potentially bolt without reaching a settlement on the GOR. Its probably just as financially workable as bolting with a settlement. Either way involves some pain.

I think your argument is contrary to the meaning of "settlement"?

When there is a settlement agreement, then whomever has to pay under the agreement, they pay only what the settlement agreement calls for. Not more or less than that. If those schools make a settlement agreement with the Big 12, they pay what the agreement requires them to pay, whether it's $1 or $1 billion or something in between.
05-13-2022 01:22 PM
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johnintx Offline
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Post: #94
RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-13-2022 11:12 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I agree, but in this case, there actually doesnt have to be any settlement negotiated at all. The "settlement" is the control and ownership of the TV rights themselves. Oklahoma and UT could leave without a settlement and the penalty would simply be that the Big12 would continue to own the rights for Texas and Oklahoma home games.

The truth is, the SEC would add 4 valuable UT conference away games and 4 Oklahoma conference away games. The Big12 would maintain control of all UT and OK home games. This is where it gets interesting. ESPN and FOX could not cut the Big12 deal because ESPN and FOX are still receiving all the rights those networks contracted for originally (plus they are additionally getting BYU, UH, UC, and UCF games from 2023 on). The SEC will be adding some interesting UT/OK matchups---even though they wont get any home games from those schools. The problem is UT/OK would no longer be getting a share of Big12 revenue.

Now the bottom line. ESPN owns half of the rights the Big12, all the rights to LHN, and, will soon own all the rights to the SEC. So, basically, it doesnt really matter to ESPN. They will get all the rights to any UT/OK SEC away games, half the rights to any UT/OK home games (split with FOX), and any rights to UT 3rd tier home games. ESPN will only lose access to half of Oklahoma's home games (same as the current arrangement) and slightly less than half of UT's home games (1 game less than half because they have the rights to the UT 3rd tier game--which is the same as the current arrangement). The problem is the SEC wont get the full benefit of the new additions until 2025---but they will get some benefit (away games and all the LHN content for the SEC Network)---thus Im guessing the SEC can simply negotiate a reduced payout deal for UT/OK that (that pays as much or more than the current Big12 deal) and lasts until the the full UT/OK rights roll over to the SEC.

That would allow UT/OK to move to the SEC in 2023----paying only a Big-12 exit fee (probably around 70 million each) and nothing more. There would be no need to successfully reach a GOR settlement for the move to happen. The Big 12 hanging onto UT/OK TV rights for a few years is actually fairly manageable due to the current way the tv rights ownership has shaken out among the networks. The odd outcome is that FOX will find itself owning a handful of high end SEC games for a couple of years. The point is, UT/OK dont necessarily have to come to a GOR settlement with the Big12 to move early. They could potentially work out a deal with the SEC for a reduced payout in those first few years and leave the Big12 whenever they wish paying just the base exit fee (which is the same in 2023 as it would be in 2025).

There is a precedent in an earlier era but with much less money on the line. When Penn State joined the B1G, their TV rights were still under the CFA TV contract. So, the B1G did not have the rights to Penn State home games for the first two years they were in the conference. They would play a home conference game as part of "CFA College Football on ABC".
(This post was last modified: 05-13-2022 01:28 PM by johnintx.)
05-13-2022 01:27 PM
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bullet Offline
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Post: #95
RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-13-2022 11:05 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(05-10-2022 02:52 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(05-10-2022 11:42 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(05-10-2022 11:35 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(05-10-2022 11:27 AM)Eggszecutor Wrote:  If by the negotiated fee you mean whatever is contractually obligated by OU/UT to break the contract, then we said the same thing.

The Big XII has no incentive to negotiate a lower buyout to let OU/UT leave. There is nothing it in for them except bringing in less money for their schools. Why would they do that?

To avoid grey legal battles trying to enforce the contract and alienating UT and OU and possibly the SEC.
The Big 12 welcomes discovery and because of the asymmetrical costs, the legal process.

And alienation UT and OU and possibly the SEC is message board fan talk. Gentlemen agreements of favorable future relations don’t lend to much of a discount rate in these situations. Those future positive interactions get leveraged or monetized now, or they don’t exist with respect to the settlement.

The Big 12 is willing to work with the SEC and ESPN. OU and UT are less important. Thus far, there hasn’t been a real incentive by any side, as there are too many looming disruptions to know what a good settlement looks like.

What’s the rush from the Big 12 POV? If things blow up from legal rulings, any settlement is moot, if not void. Even OU doesn’t have huge incentive with CFP at 4, save cash and get a better chance of playoffs for new coach isn’t a bad hand. SEC/ESPN could make more, but the main reason it was leaked early was to lock in OU and UT from other conferences, not because of getting them in before 2025. In terms of branding, there’s upside to OU getting a 3rd SEC playoff spot, which is nearly impossible if they move early.

In many ways, staying until 2025 is a settlement. The only party that loses is UT. They also have the means to prevent that

Texas used to rotate Houston and Rice. They quit playing Houston after the fiasco with their dangerous temporary bleachers. Alienating Texas an Oklahoma is a real possibility which is a negative for the Big 12 schools.

There is no certainty the Big 12 gets a full settlement in court. Its a huge risk to take it to court vs. a negotiated settlement. For Texas and OU, all they would be risking is attorney's fees. It will be settled and is highly unlikely to ever get close to court.

I suspect the idea before Aggie sabotage, was to announce after the 2021 season. Then there would be a max of 3 lame duck years, with the idea of one or two. Now we have a minimum of 2 lame duck years with possibly 4.
LOL.
Alienating UT and OU is worth the risk. When the costs are asymmetrical, you don't discount settlements based on someone's verbal promise you'll still be friends. There has to tangible exchange of utility.

The risk-reward is asymmetrical. This is how settlements work. The Big 12 has much more incentive to let it get to court, and therefore will seek an advantageous settlement. I am not contending there won't be a settlement, but the discount rate won't come from things like staying friends and gentleman agreements about future games. Things that were readily admitted as not likely to be genuine here. People are taking this personally and being fans. It is just business.

It is possible the leak was 100% incompetence. But that also has to be the SEC line given the implications to ESPN. Maybe it really did just luck into what was a pretty good move, as the Pac12 and BIG would have made moves for landing both between now and 2025.

Also, if it was a leak, how fortuitous, as otherwise, OU and UT are definitely wanting to avoid discovery.

Nonsense. Neither side wants it to go to court. There are huge gaps between the potential results.
05-13-2022 04:21 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #96
RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-13-2022 01:22 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(05-13-2022 11:50 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  They have to pay the 70 million base exit fee no matter what they do. They can get a full share SEC payout if the SEC gets full rights---but that would REQUIRE a financial GOR settlement with the Big12---which would likely offset any benefit from receiving a full SEC share for UT/OK. Im just making the point that UT/OK could potentially bolt without reaching a settlement on the GOR. Its probably just as financially workable as bolting with a settlement. Either way involves some pain.

I think your argument is contrary to the meaning of "settlement"?

When there is a settlement agreement, then whomever has to pay under the agreement, they pay only what the settlement agreement calls for. Not more or less than that. If those schools make a settlement agreement with the Big 12, they pay what the agreement requires them to pay, whether it's $1 or $1 billion or something in between.

I think when most talk of "settlement" they are considering some sort of settlement modifying the current agreement. I dont think UT/OU have much chance of modifying the exit fee---but I do think its possible to deal with the GOR fallout (if the SEC is willing to work with the two) even if the Big12 is unwilling to negotiate on the GOR terms.
(This post was last modified: 05-13-2022 06:34 PM by Attackcoog.)
05-13-2022 06:33 PM
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Post: #97
RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-13-2022 06:33 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(05-13-2022 01:22 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(05-13-2022 11:50 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  They have to pay the 70 million base exit fee no matter what they do. They can get a full share SEC payout if the SEC gets full rights---but that would REQUIRE a financial GOR settlement with the Big12---which would likely offset any benefit from receiving a full SEC share for UT/OK. Im just making the point that UT/OK could potentially bolt without reaching a settlement on the GOR. Its probably just as financially workable as bolting with a settlement. Either way involves some pain.

I think your argument is contrary to the meaning of "settlement"?

When there is a settlement agreement, then whomever has to pay under the agreement, they pay only what the settlement agreement calls for. Not more or less than that. If those schools make a settlement agreement with the Big 12, they pay what the agreement requires them to pay, whether it's $1 or $1 billion or something in between.

I think when most talk of "settlement" they are considering some sort of settlement modifying the current agreement. I dont think UT/OU have much chance of modifying the exit fee---but I do think its possible to deal with the GOR fallout (if the SEC is willing to work with the two) even if the Big12 is unwilling to negotiate on the GOR terms.

The Big 12 is willing to negotiate on the GOR, it is whether SEC and ESPN are willing to.
05-15-2022 11:47 AM
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Post: #98
RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-15-2022 11:47 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  The Big 12 is willing to negotiate on the GOR, it is whether SEC and ESPN are willing to.

As soon as they told Bowlsby he's out, they have been ready to negotiate, desperately. This is all about the future contract of the Big12 and ESPN.
05-16-2022 06:30 AM
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johnintx Offline
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-16-2022 06:30 AM)Thiefery Wrote:  
(05-15-2022 11:47 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  The Big 12 is willing to negotiate on the GOR, it is whether SEC and ESPN are willing to.

As soon as they told Bowlsby he's out, they have been ready to negotiate, desperately. This is all about the future contract of the Big12 and ESPN.

This is true. Bowlsby took the OU/UT exit personally, and blew up the bridge with ESPN in reaction. Now that there will be a new commissioner, the Big 12 will be in a position to negotiate with ESPN. This includes the GOR.

I think we're gone in 2023.
05-16-2022 08:33 AM
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Post: #100
RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-15-2022 11:47 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(05-13-2022 06:33 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(05-13-2022 01:22 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(05-13-2022 11:50 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  They have to pay the 70 million base exit fee no matter what they do. They can get a full share SEC payout if the SEC gets full rights---but that would REQUIRE a financial GOR settlement with the Big12---which would likely offset any benefit from receiving a full SEC share for UT/OK. Im just making the point that UT/OK could potentially bolt without reaching a settlement on the GOR. Its probably just as financially workable as bolting with a settlement. Either way involves some pain.

I think your argument is contrary to the meaning of "settlement"?

When there is a settlement agreement, then whomever has to pay under the agreement, they pay only what the settlement agreement calls for. Not more or less than that. If those schools make a settlement agreement with the Big 12, they pay what the agreement requires them to pay, whether it's $1 or $1 billion or something in between.

I think when most talk of "settlement" they are considering some sort of settlement modifying the current agreement. I dont think UT/OU have much chance of modifying the exit fee---but I do think its possible to deal with the GOR fallout (if the SEC is willing to work with the two) even if the Big12 is unwilling to negotiate on the GOR terms.

The Big 12 is willing to negotiate on the GOR, it is whether SEC and ESPN are willing to.

They may be willing to negotiate---but that doesnt mean UT/OU will like the terms. The reality is the Big12 GOR holds the best cards and they really have little motivation to negotiate away that money. The GOR means they cant have their TV deal cut until it expires. The only acceptable negotiated deal would leave the Big12 in that same position---so to the extent that can happen--sure the Big12 will talk. The problem is the lost value in the Big12 deal when the UT/OU rights are moved into the SEC contract for 2023-2025 is going be paid by someone or there is no reason for the Big12 to agree to it. Its just that simple. The only way I see around it is something like I outlined---where the rights ownership stays with the Big12, but UT/OU are playing in the SEC (basically simply moving and allowing the GOR to do its thing).
(This post was last modified: 05-16-2022 11:45 AM by Attackcoog.)
05-16-2022 11:43 AM
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