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When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-01-2022 03:48 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(05-01-2022 03:32 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  July 1st, 2025.

The SEC money is very good, but not anywhere near close to $50m/year better than Big 12 + LHN payments. It has to be that much better to break even. No amount of "emotional harm", which neither Texas nor Oklahoma seem to be suffering in the least, can overcome that level of fiduciary responsibility.

So the Big 12 will have 14 school in 2023-24 and 2024-25. Their media supporters appear to be quite happy to pay for that.

Stu the day OU and UT come to play the SEC will earn 20 million more per school. The LHN and B12 revenue equals 58 million next year, a sum OU doesn't get. The SEC will jump from 55 million (54.8 last year) to ~75.5 and that's 17 million more than B12 and LHN.

I think it happens in Fall of '23. Each will have served a 2 year notice. The B12 will have added inventory and completing their contracted payouts will be easy for the nets and many of those schools will still want to schedule them. No monetary damage for the contracted period and no loss of the number of games (actually an increase) and no damages. Just an exit fee.

I'm inclined to think 2023 still. 4 years is an awful long time as a lame duck. Not sure anyone has stayed more than 2 years.
05-01-2022 06:33 PM
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-01-2022 05:01 PM)Acres Wrote:  
(05-01-2022 04:09 PM)jimrtex Wrote:  
(05-01-2022 03:48 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(05-01-2022 03:32 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  July 1st, 2025.

The SEC money is very good, but not anywhere near close to $50m/year better than Big 12 + LHN payments. It has to be that much better to break even. No amount of "emotional harm", which neither Texas nor Oklahoma seem to be suffering in the least, can overcome that level of fiduciary responsibility.

So the Big 12 will have 14 school in 2023-24 and 2024-25. Their media supporters appear to be quite happy to pay for that.

Stu the day OU and UT come to play the SEC will earn 20 million more per school. The LHN and B12 revenue equals 58 million next year, a sum OU doesn't get. The SEC will jump from 55 million (54.8 last year) to ~75.5 and that's 17 million more than B12 and LHN.

I think it happens in Fall of '23. Each will have served a 2 year notice. The B12 will have added inventory and completing their contracted payouts will be easy for the nets and many of those schools will still want to schedule them. No monetary damage for the contracted period and no loss of the number of games (actually an increase) and no damages. Just an exit fee.
Perhaps they will split. Texas in 2023 because they want a better chance to be bowl eligible.

Oklahoma in 2025 because they have a chance to be in the CFP.

Reference to bolded part, Both have not yet provided the 18 month notice to leave the conference. The only notice they provided was that they will not be renewing the GOR that expires in 2025. These two are separate. The former deals with conference membership while the latter deals with conference media deal distributions (GOR) which is tied to existing media deal.

Essentially they notified the big12 in July 2021 that they are not going to be party to any future conference media deal renewal, that involves a GOR. While it indicates intent to leave the conference, it does not make it official.

Both need to provide the 18 month exit notice by May 2023 if they intend to leave July 2025.

That sounds like splitting hairs. Both schools made clear in a communication that I have to believe was thoroughly reviewed by high priced attorneys. They gave four years notice, with both sides understanding that any earlier exit was something to be negotiated. I don't think there will be four lame duck seasons.
05-01-2022 06:52 PM
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Post: #23
RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
Perhaps the Big 12 let's them go early for a guarantee to continue the Sugar Bowl matchup.
05-01-2022 07:57 PM
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
I believe it will be 2023 frankly because at some point the league has to use the TV windows that OU/Texas would get on their remaining brands
05-01-2022 08:45 PM
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
The thing to remember is that Fox will need to be cool with letting the OU and Texas walk to a fully ESPN league early. What's it worth to Fox to let them out of their commitments early? All things are negotiable, but Fox entered into a deal with the league planning to get OU and Texas games. What's their incentive to let it happen early?
05-01-2022 09:06 PM
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-01-2022 03:48 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(05-01-2022 03:32 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  July 1st, 2025.

The SEC money is very good, but not anywhere near close to $50m/year better than Big 12 + LHN payments. It has to be that much better to break even. No amount of "emotional harm", which neither Texas nor Oklahoma seem to be suffering in the least, can overcome that level of fiduciary responsibility.

So the Big 12 will have 14 school in 2023-24 and 2024-25. Their media supporters appear to be quite happy to pay for that.

Stu the day OU and UT come to play the SEC will earn 20 million more per school. The LHN and B12 revenue equals 58 million next year, a sum OU doesn't get. The SEC will jump from 55 million (54.8 last year) to ~75.5 and that's 17 million more than B12 and LHN.

I think it happens in Fall of '23. Each will have served a 2 year notice. The B12 will have added inventory and completing their contracted payouts will be easy for the nets and many of those schools will still want to schedule them. No monetary damage for the contracted period and no loss of the number of games (actually an increase) and no damages. Just an exit fee.

Disagree because you are forgetting the exit fees. It's nearly $100m per school to leave a year early. Unless Disney AND Texas are willing to convert the better part of that $100m from UT's share of the LHN buyout to OU I don't see how OU is made whole.

2024 is more plausible from a financial standpoint, but still a net negative.

It should be noted that unlike the AAC with Cincy, Houston and UCF, there are no reports of any discussion of early exit by Texas or Oklahoma. In fact there are reports that no negotiations at all have happened, and the Big 12 is scheduling as if Texas and Oklahoma will be there in 2023 and 2024.

So with all due respect I think you are dead wrong on the exit date. And keep in mind, neither Texas, nor Oklahoma nor the SEC, nor ESPN for that matter, seems to think that in the grand scheme of things those two years matter -- they have the next 100 years together.
05-01-2022 10:22 PM
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-01-2022 10:22 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  
(05-01-2022 03:48 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(05-01-2022 03:32 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  July 1st, 2025.

The SEC money is very good, but not anywhere near close to $50m/year better than Big 12 + LHN payments. It has to be that much better to break even. No amount of "emotional harm", which neither Texas nor Oklahoma seem to be suffering in the least, can overcome that level of fiduciary responsibility.

So the Big 12 will have 14 school in 2023-24 and 2024-25. Their media supporters appear to be quite happy to pay for that.

Stu the day OU and UT come to play the SEC will earn 20 million more per school. The LHN and B12 revenue equals 58 million next year, a sum OU doesn't get. The SEC will jump from 55 million (54.8 last year) to ~75.5 and that's 17 million more than B12 and LHN.

I think it happens in Fall of '23. Each will have served a 2 year notice. The B12 will have added inventory and completing their contracted payouts will be easy for the nets and many of those schools will still want to schedule them. No monetary damage for the contracted period and no loss of the number of games (actually an increase) and no damages. Just an exit fee.

Disagree because you are forgetting the exit fees. It's nearly $100m per school to leave a year early. Unless Disney AND Texas are willing to convert the better part of that $100m from UT's share of the LHN buyout to OU I don't see how OU is made whole.

2024 is more plausible from a financial standpoint, but still a net negative.

It should be noted that unlike the AAC with Cincy, Houston and UCF, there are no reports of any discussion of early exit by Texas or Oklahoma. In fact there are reports that no negotiations at all have happened, and the Big 12 is scheduling as if Texas and Oklahoma will be there in 2023 and 2024.

So with all due respect I think you are dead wrong on the exit date. And keep in mind, neither Texas, nor Oklahoma nor the SEC, nor ESPN for that matter, seems to think that in the grand scheme of things those two years matter -- they have the next 100 years together.

I'm not forgetting anything. So far no exit fee has exceeded 1 year's withheld conference revenue, and likely won't no matter what kind of amount is set. It's extremely hard to collect from a state entity once a disbursement has been made and since media revenue must be paid annually no conference withholds more than a year's worth. So high dollar amounts and withholding more than 1 year's disbursements could be considered a breach by the conference. So funds not yet paid is the precedent. Think 38 million.

Now damages are a different animal but must be proven to be claimed and punitive damages usually don't figure in GOR breaches. This is why the exiting schools likely won't have damages filed against them if the media contract is paid in full by the rights holder(s).

There are contingencies to cover departure whenever it takes place. And in the industry, 2 years is maxing the limit on Lame Duck status.
(This post was last modified: 05-01-2022 11:27 PM by JRsec.)
05-01-2022 11:22 PM
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-01-2022 11:22 PM)JRsec Wrote:  2 years is maxing the limit on Lame Duck status.

It usually is, but the obstacle seems to be this: At least a faction in the Big 12 wants OU and UT to make a payment large enough that it really hurts them to depart early, maybe $100 million per school or more, and doesn't want to let them go early for an amount they can easily afford. Whereas OU and UT think the Big 12 doesn't have much leverage, because waiting an extra two years, if they have to, isn't a big enough problem to require a nine-figure payment.

Maybe a new Big 12 commissioner can convince the holdover schools to take something less than the gargantuan amount they might want to get out of spite, while also persuading OU and UT to make a still-large payment and get out? We'll find out after the new guy takes over.
05-01-2022 11:54 PM
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-01-2022 05:01 PM)Acres Wrote:  [quote='jimrtex' pid='18218027' dateline='1651439392']
Reference to bolded part, Both have not yet provided the 18 month notice to leave the conference. The only notice they provided was that they will not be renewing the GOR that expires in 2025. These two are separate. The former deals with conference membership while the latter deals with conference media deal distributions (GOR) which is tied to existing media deal.

Essentially they notified the big12 in July 2021 that they are not going to be party to any future conference media deal renewal, that involves a GOR. While it indicates intent to leave the conference, it does not make it official.

Both need to provide the 18 month exit notice by May 2023 if they intend to leave July 2025.

If the bolded is true, then it would have to be 2024 or 2025 for an exit date. Else they would have provided notice already.
(This post was last modified: 05-02-2022 12:02 AM by ChrisLords.)
05-01-2022 11:57 PM
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-01-2022 11:54 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(05-01-2022 11:22 PM)JRsec Wrote:  2 years is maxing the limit on Lame Duck status.

It usually is, but the obstacle seems to be this: At least a faction in the Big 12 wants OU and UT to make a payment large enough that it really hurts them to depart early, maybe $100 million per school or more, and doesn't want to let them go early for an amount they can easily afford. Whereas OU and UT think the Big 12 doesn't have much leverage, because waiting an extra two years, if they have to, isn't a big enough problem to require a nine-figure payment.

Maybe a new Big 12 commissioner can convince the holdover schools to take something less than the gargantuan amount they might want to get out of spite, while also persuading OU and UT to make a still-large payment and get out? We'll find out after the new guy takes over.
It’s not really the case. It’s not solely out of the spite anyway. The Big 12 has leverage because there are some in the Big 12 that rather have OU and UT have as many years with the new schools as possible. So, given that’s what they want, there’s not much motivation to settle for anything but a large payday.

Maybe that changes if last season was an abbreviation. But another few years of OU and UT not making the championship game, or likely just one at best if they go divisions, is what they’re going for. On the other hand, that UT and to a lesser extent OU want to avoid that. Better to lose in the SEC
05-02-2022 12:12 AM
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
The key point is no negotiations have happened, and neither school nor the Big 12 have requested them or even hinted they are interested in a settlement.

For the 2023 exit to occur a lot of negotiating needs to be happening now and be concluded by the fall so that the SEC can prepare the 2023 football schedule. It's getting awfully late in the day for that. There are a number of complicated issues to resolve, none I think can be settled quickly, even if all sides are on the same page. But how can they be on the same page if they have not even begun to talk?

Maybe things will change come July or August or even September. But right now it's sounds a lot like crickets.
05-02-2022 12:22 AM
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Post: #32
RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-02-2022 12:22 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The key point is no negotiations have happened, and neither school nor the Big 12 have requested them or even hinted they are interested in a settlement.

For the 2023 exit to occur a lot of negotiating needs to be happening now and be concluded by the fall so that the SEC can prepare the 2023 football schedule. It's getting awfully late in the day for that. There are a number of complicated issues to resolve, none I think can be settled quickly, even if all sides are on the same page. But how can they be on the same page if they have not even begun to talk?

Maybe things will change come July or August or even September. But right now it's sounds a lot like crickets.

SMH, negotiations go on all of the time. They just don't have a presser until something is decided, and sometimes they have reached a settlement and have an agreed upon future date for a press release. Just because you hear nothing about it doesn't mean it isn't going on, or hasn't been completed.

Talks are ongoing and have been for 10 months between the SEC and a handful of other institutions. Because you've heard nothing doesn't mean they aren't. If they come to fruition it will be like the Texas and Oklahoma announcement (actually more like the A&M and Missouri announcements which weren't leaked early). If it doesn't come to an agreement it will be as though they never happened. It's simply how it's done.

More happens after basketball and before football than at any other time of the year, mostly because Presidents and AD's have time which is compatible with counterparts, and the past couple of decades that's been almost every Summer.

And Stu, the SEC has contingency schedules for any year between now and Fall of 2025 should they come on board early. I don't think we had them for 2021 or 2022. Those matters are worked out in advance of the signings which took place earlier than expected last July, and those schedules likely have been in place sometime between then and now since this Spring Meeting (2022) would have been the original official announcement time.

From the time a school applies until they play is usually 2 years and from the first vote of acceptance until the formal vote which ceremonially is unanimous, and it is in that lag time when both legal teams work all the minutia and details out. The Houston Chronicle broke this story about a year early. The SEC will be ready now anytime after July.
(This post was last modified: 05-02-2022 01:47 AM by JRsec.)
05-02-2022 01:30 AM
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-02-2022 12:22 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The key point is no negotiations have happened, and neither school nor the Big 12 have requested them or even hinted they are interested in a settlement.

For the 2023 exit to occur a lot of negotiating needs to be happening now and be concluded by the fall so that the SEC can prepare the 2023 football schedule. It's getting awfully late in the day for that. There are a number of complicated issues to resolve, none I think can be settled quickly, even if all sides are on the same page. But how can they be on the same page if they have not even begun to talk?

Maybe things will change come July or August or even September. But right now it's sounds a lot like crickets.

Bob Bowlsby himself said he was blindsided last July when it leaked Texas and Oklahoma planned to leave the Big XII.

Six days later, the two schools officially announced they were on their way out.

Wouldn't be surprised at all if negotiations on the exit terms begin soon thereafter.
05-02-2022 07:12 AM
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
While there's certainly a large contingent from the Leftover 8 eager to stick it to OU and UT (and, honestly, who could blame 'em), there'd be a price to pay for extracting that pound of flesh.

The better long-range view would be to lock the Horns and Sooners into non-conference home-and-home series in the revenue sports for (at least) the next 10-15 years after their departure.

Those matchups boost fan interest, recruiting, ticket sales and media rights agreements.

The flip side is getting a one-time payoff and nothing else.
05-02-2022 07:31 AM
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-01-2022 11:54 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(05-01-2022 11:22 PM)JRsec Wrote:  2 years is maxing the limit on Lame Duck status.

It usually is, but the obstacle seems to be this: At least a faction in the Big 12 wants OU and UT to make a payment large enough that it really hurts them to depart early, maybe $100 million per school or more, and doesn't want to let them go early for an amount they can easily afford. Whereas OU and UT think the Big 12 doesn't have much leverage, because waiting an extra two years, if they have to, isn't a big enough problem to require a nine-figure payment.

Maybe a new Big 12 commissioner can convince the holdover schools to take something less than the gargantuan amount they might want to get out of spite, while also persuading OU and UT to make a still-large payment and get out? We'll find out after the new guy takes over.

Maybe it was personal for Bowlsby but I suspect the presidents are all about maximizing dollars
05-02-2022 07:52 AM
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-01-2022 11:54 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(05-01-2022 11:22 PM)JRsec Wrote:  2 years is maxing the limit on Lame Duck status.

It usually is, but the obstacle seems to be this: At least a faction in the Big 12 wants OU and UT to make a payment large enough that it really hurts them to depart early, maybe $100 million per school or more, and doesn't want to let them go early for an amount they can easily afford. Whereas OU and UT think the Big 12 doesn't have much leverage, because waiting an extra two years, if they have to, isn't a big enough problem to require a nine-figure payment.

Maybe a new Big 12 commissioner can convince the holdover schools to take something less than the gargantuan amount they might want to get out of spite, while also persuading OU and UT to make a still-large payment and get out? We'll find out after the new guy takes over.

The longer the exit ramp the lower the payout to the Big 12 and OU/Texas still stealing contractually obligated prime tv windows. I think come this summer or early in season a formal.announeent of all moves will be made.
05-02-2022 10:53 AM
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-02-2022 10:53 AM)CFBLurker Wrote:  It usually is, but the obstacle seems to be this: At least a faction in the Big 12 wants OU and UT to make a payment large enough that it really hurts them to depart early, maybe $100 million per school or more, and doesn't want to let them go early for an amount they can easily afford.

Win the battle, lose the war.

A larger buyout but no further games in revenue sports against OU and UT is the short-sighted play — particularly for Oklahoma State, Baylor and Texas Tech.

Instead of "Screw y'all for leaving (even though we'd be doing the same thing if we could"), the smarter move would be "Hey, best of luck in the SEC and let's find a fair and appropriate settlement where you don't have wait 'til the Summer of 2025 to leave."

At the end of the day, Big XII schools are better off building a cooperative relationship with the "Big Two" conferences and accepting the fact that schools are going to want to move to a better (i.e. richer) neighborhood if the option presents itself.
05-02-2022 11:09 AM
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Post: #38
RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
Don't let the door hit ya on the way out.

The way the NIL is shaping up, Houston and UCF are going to be powerhouses. (UCF is defacto pro football team in Orlando).
05-02-2022 12:30 PM
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Post: #39
RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-02-2022 11:09 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  
(05-02-2022 10:53 AM)CFBLurker Wrote:  It usually is, but the obstacle seems to be this: At least a faction in the Big 12 wants OU and UT to make a payment large enough that it really hurts them to depart early, maybe $100 million per school or more, and doesn't want to let them go early for an amount they can easily afford.

Win the battle, lose the war.

A larger buyout but no further games in revenue sports against OU and UT is the short-sighted play — particularly for Oklahoma State, Baylor and Texas Tech.

Instead of "Screw y'all for leaving (even though we'd be doing the same thing if we could"), the smarter move would be "Hey, best of luck in the SEC and let's find a fair and appropriate settlement where you don't have wait 'til the Summer of 2025 to leave."

At the end of the day, Big XII schools are better off building a cooperative relationship with the "Big Two" conferences and accepting the fact that schools are going to want to move to a better (i.e. richer) neighborhood if the option presents itself.

Lol. You’re making this far too personal.

It’s just business. The Big 12 benefits most from OU and UT staying and playing the new schools, or by getting paid for OU and UT leaving before that. Pretty simple stuff. The Big 12 would take a repeat of last year through 2025 over getting paid to release OU and UT early.

No business decisions will be based on what amounts to easily broken gentleman’s agreements.
(This post was last modified: 05-02-2022 01:09 PM by Big 12 fan too.)
05-02-2022 01:07 PM
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RE: When will Oklahoma-Texas go to the SEC? 2023, 2024 or 2025.
(05-02-2022 01:07 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(05-02-2022 11:09 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  
(05-02-2022 10:53 AM)CFBLurker Wrote:  It usually is, but the obstacle seems to be this: At least a faction in the Big 12 wants OU and UT to make a payment large enough that it really hurts them to depart early, maybe $100 million per school or more, and doesn't want to let them go early for an amount they can easily afford.

Win the battle, lose the war.

A larger buyout but no further games in revenue sports against OU and UT is the short-sighted play — particularly for Oklahoma State, Baylor and Texas Tech.

Instead of "Screw y'all for leaving (even though we'd be doing the same thing if we could"), the smarter move would be "Hey, best of luck in the SEC and let's find a fair and appropriate settlement where you don't have wait 'til the Summer of 2025 to leave."

At the end of the day, Big XII schools are better off building a cooperative relationship with the "Big Two" conferences and accepting the fact that schools are going to want to move to a better (i.e. richer) neighborhood if the option presents itself.

Lol. You’re making this far too personal.

It’s just business. The Big 12 benefits most from OU and UT staying and playing the new schools, or by getting paid for OU and UT leaving before that. Pretty simple stuff. The Big 12 would take a repeat of last year through 2025 over getting paid to release OU and UT early.

No business decisions will be based on what amounts to easily broken gentleman’s agreements.

What benefits do the remaining Big12 schools get, from Oklahoma and Texas playing the new schools added to the Big12?
05-02-2022 01:51 PM
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