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jimrtex Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Premier Football
Tier 3 and 4 will initially be made up of the remainder of the FCS schools. Rather than dividing the schools into two tiers to start with, this division will occur over several seasons as lower-performing schools will be relegated to the fourth tier.

The groups are based on existing conferences placed in groups of roughly equal size. With 118 schools, 8 groups will average 14.75 teams. Our groups range in size from 12 to 19.

Northwestern Group

Code:
Sacramento State         60.67
South Dakota             59.32
North Dakota             59.02
UC Davis                 53.95
Portland State           49.68
Northern Arizona         46.46
Idaho                    45.84
Western Illinois         44.97
Idaho State              39.02
Northern Colorado        38.86
Cal Poly-SLO             34.51
San Diego                32.68

A total of 12 teams: Big Sky(8), Summit(3), Pioneer(1). The Big Sky had 4 schools (Eastern Washington, Montana, Montana State, and Weber State) placed in the second tier, as did the MVFC (Illinois State, North Dakota State, South Dakota State, and Northern Iowa). To replace these, the remaining Summit League members along with San Diego were placed in the group. In general the Pioneer League schools were separated geographically.

Midwest Group

Code:
Missouri State           63.21
Southern Illinois        60.93
Youngstown State         52.67
Tennessee-Martin         51.06
Indiana State            47.25
SE Missouri State        44.65
Murray State             42.40
Tennessee State          36.44
Tennessee Tech           31.32
St. Thomas-Mn.           30.95
Eastern Illinois         30.38
Dayton                   29.86
Morehead State           28.10
Valparaiso               26.10
Drake                    22.49
Butler                   14.16
Lindenwood               00.00

A total of 17 schools (4 MVC/MVFC members; 1 Horizon/MVFC member, 6 OVC members, and 6 midwestern Pioneer League teams).

Southwest Group

Code:
SE Louisiana             57.58
Incarnate Word           57.42
Stephen F. Austin        56.23
Nicholls State           53.49
McNeese State            47.31
Abilene Christian        42.85
Tarleton State           42.79
Southern Utah            36.75
Northwestern State       35.98
Utah Tech                32.23
Lamar                    30.13
Houston Baptist          27.26
UTRGV                    00.00
TAMU-Commerce            00.00

A total of 14 schools, 7 from the WAC and 7 from the Southland. This could evolve from the current horizontal arrangement to a vertical arrangement, with the better teams in Tier 2, and the weaker teams in Tier 3.

South Central Group

Code:
Florida A&M              46.00
Jackson State            44.98
Alabama A&M              38.48
Alcorn State             37.74
Prairie View A&M         37.30
Southern U.              33.69
Grambling State          31.13
Bethune-Cookman          30.30
Alabama State            29.77
Miss. Valley State       29.40
Texas Southern           28.14
Ark.-Pine Bluff          23.71

The 12-team SWAC forms this group.

Northeast I Group

Code:
SC State                 40.84
Sacred Heart             38.93
Duquesne                 38.12
Bryant                   36.44
Norfolk State            36.10
Saint Francis-Pa.        35.76
NC Central               34.22
Central Connecticut      33.66
Robert Morris            32.84
Merrimack                27.46
Howard                   25.56
Delaware State           25.47
Marist                   23.83
Morgan State             23.65
LIU Post                 21.08
Wagner                   16.22
Stonehill                00.00

17 teams, 8 from the NEC, 6 from the MEAC, 2 northeastern Big South (Robert Morris and Bryant), and 1 Pioneer (Marist).

Northeast II Group

Code:
Dartmouth                58.07
Princeton                57.86
Harvard                  57.39
Holy Cross               51.40
Yale                     49.42
Columbia                 44.88
Fordham                  39.93
Pennsylvania             38.90
Cornell                  34.44
Brown                    34.40
Colgate                  33.76
Lafayette                32.44
Lehigh                   30.46
Georgetown               25.73
Bucknell                 19.55

15 schools, 8 from the Ivies, and 7 from the Patriot. I'm assuming that the Ivies would participate in the pyramid. If not they would just be moved into a non-participating section. The SWAC might participate. They would be able to play 12 regular season games and also be bowl-eligible.

Southeast Group

Code:
Kennesaw State           57.47
East Tennessee State     56.53
Chattanooga              54.93
Mercer                   52.20
Eastern Kentucky         51.74
Austin Peay              49.89
Furman                   49.70
Central Arkansas         48.46
Samford                  46.97
VMI                      45.21
Western Carolina         43.68
Charleston Southern      43.39
North Alabama            41.76
Campbell                 39.05
The Citadel              38.19
Gardner-Webb             38.02
Davidson                 34.85
Stetson                  15.28
Presbyterian             10.05

10 schools: SoCon 8, ASUN 5, Big South 3 (southeastern Gardner-Webb, Campbell, Charleston Southern), Pioneer 3 (southeastern Davidson, Stetson, Presbyterian).

Atlantic Group

Code:
Monmouth-NJ              52.06
Richmond                 51.17
Elon                     47.88
William & Mary           47.36
Delaware                 47.18
Maine                    45.50
Stony Brook              45.32
Rhode Island             44.41
Towson                   43.54
NC A&T                   41.84
Albany-NY                40.14
Hampton                  36.66

12 schools all in the CAA.
(This post was last modified: 05-13-2022 03:01 PM by jimrtex.)
05-12-2022 09:05 AM
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jimrtex Offline
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Posts: 758
Joined: Aug 2021
Reputation: 27
I Root For: Houston, Tulsa, Colorado
Location:
Post: #22
RE: Premier Football
This will be a simulation of the Pacific Group

Pacific Group

Code:
Oregon                   79.96
UCLA                     78.93
Arizona State            76.68
Oregon State             74.68
California               71.55
Southern California      70.30
Washington               70.27
Stanford                 65.75
Arizona                  59.13

The number is the Sagarin rating for each school. The difference between two ratings is the mean expected point spread at a neutral site. The home team is given a +3 point bonus.

In this simulation, I assumed that there would be a normal distribution with a standard deviation of 11 points. A team that is an 11 point favorite would be expected to cover 50% of the time, but win 84% of the time (that is, about 1/3 of the time, they would win by less than 11 points, but still win).

I used a 9-team schedule from the UIL, assigning the schools to the team numbers with the following constraint:

Rival schools should be scheduled against each the final week of the season. In this case the rivals are Oregon-Oregon State, Cal-Stanford, USC-UCLA, and Arizona-Arizona State. Washington is by itself (Washington State was assigned to another group).

One feature of this 9-team schedule is that each school plays home and away on alternating weeks. Because of the odd-number of teams all schools play four home and four away.

There can still be bias with this schedule. For example, Oregon hosts both UCLA and Arizona State. In close games, the home field advantage has the most effect. An away game at Arizona would be preferred. For example, Oregon at Arizona would still be a 17-point favorite.

In real life, the schedule would be assigned based on preserving alternating home and away games as much as possible. For example, USC will play at UCLA in 2024. Assuming this new competition begins in 2025 at the time of the new alignments, then it would be preferred that UCLA play at USC (the game has alternated since UCLA moved to the Rose Bowl in 1982).

There are 4! 2^4 = 384 possible schedules. It would be a simple exercise in brute force computer power to find the best alternating schedule.

Week 1

Code:
Arizona(W)@Washington(L)
California(L)@Southern California(W)
Oregon State(L)@Arizona State(W)
UCLA(W)@Oregon(L)
Stanford(bye)

Arizona gets the upset in Seattle, while UCLA goes in to Eugene and knocks off co-favorite Oregon.

Code:
Arizona             1    0
Arizona State       1    0
Southern California 1    0
UCLA                1    0
Stanford            0    0
California          0    1
Oregon              0    1
Oregon State        0    1
Washington          0    1

Week 2

Code:
Washington(L)@Oregon State(W)    
Oregon(W)@California(L)    
Arizona State(W)@UCLA(L)    
Southern California(L)@Stanford(W)    
Arizona(bye)

Arizona State beats UCLA at the Rose Bowl to establish the Sun Devils as the early season favorites. Washington loses in Corvallis, placing them firmly in the relegation zone.

Code:
Arizona State       2    0
Arizona             1    0
Stanford            1    0
Oregon              1    1
Oregon State        1    1
Southern California 1    1
UCLA                1    1
California          0    2
Washington          0    2

Week 3

Code:
Oregon State(W)@Arizona(L)    
Stanford(L)@Oregon(W)    
UCLA(W)@Washington(L)    
California(L)@Arizona State(W)    
Southern California(bye)

Arizona State out in the lead for the playoff spot as Oregon and UCLA chase. Cal and Washington both drop a 3rd game.

Code:
Arizona State       3    0
Oregon              2    1
Oregon State        2    1
UCLA                2    1
Arizona             1    1
Southern California 1    1
Stanford            1    1
California          0    3
Washington          0    3

Week 4

Code:
Oregon(W)@Southern California(L)
Arizona(L)@UCLA(W)
Arizona State(W)@Stanford(L)
Washington(W)@California(L)
Oregon State(bye)

Washington wins battle of winless teams at Berkeley. Arizona State, Oregon, and UCLA continue winning ways.

Code:
Arizona State       4    0
Oregon              3    1
UCLA                3    1
Oregon State        2    1
Arizona             1    2
Southern California 1    2
Stanford            1    2
Washington          1    3
California          0    4
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 03:11 PM by jimrtex.)
05-17-2022 05:58 PM
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