Where does everyone stand today on how we’ll do this year in football. Tough to tell but fun to speculate. There’s always the chance we don’t adjust as well as many of of think. But I think we go 6-5 +/- 1 win. I think we definitely beat Norfolk State, Ark State, Georgia Southern, Texas State, and ODU. I think we have a solid shot at beating MTSU to make it 6. As far as the other games go. I think we have a chance at Louisville and Georgia State. I don’t think it’s as likely that beat App State, Coastal, or Marshall in year one. What’s everyone’s preseason prediction?

I agree with the overall prediction of 6-5 +/-. My wrinkle is that we see some chaos that we aren’t used to as a fan base. With a new QB and new players around field we could see some some pivotal plays that are big blunders and lose us a game that should be penciled in as a W and some players who shine on a random Saturday and boost us to an unexpected win.

I expect that we drop one of the predicted wins you listed and beat one of the “giants” (App, Marshall, Coastal) that we shouldn’t based off of some surprising plays that go our way.

.500 is a solid year IMO, anything better is gravy

I will not be surprised if the offensive line struggles (gets pushed backwards) meaning the RBs get banged up a lot tempting Big Game Cig to turn to ol' 3 up the middle & punt hoping to win a few games 10 to 7

we may not be in the SEC but we ain't in Kansas anymore and we need bigger players, no more 205 LB linebackers


.

Honestly I cant wait for our home opener to be a good game instead of 63-7 by the third quarter. I have no expectations this year other than hopefully we never look completely outmatched in any game. I could see us wearing down against the top of the conference but hopefully that gets fixed year 2 with recruiting quality depth

11-0. Sunbelt Champs. National Champs even.

(04-19-2022 02:47 PM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  11-0. Sunbelt Champs. National Champs even.

Gonna be interesting to see what the CFP committee does with a G5 that isn't bowl or conference championship eligibile but 11-0 with a 50 point average margin of victory.

6-5 or better and I would be elated.
5-6 or 4-7- to be expected
3-8 - could be expected but meh
2-7 or worse - disappointment

My prediction is 5-6.

I am figuring 6-5 or 5-6 but would not be surprised a game off either way. Think a lot of the games will be close for the most part.

Brian

I'll take it game by game.

MTSU - W
NSU - W
@ App State - L
Texas State - W
@ Ark State - W
@ GSU - W
Marshall - L
@ Louisville - L
@ ODU - W
GA State - L
CCU - L

So I'm saying 6-5. I could see the Marshall game being a close win as well. I'm also not sure what to expect out of Georgia Southern and Arkansas State as both have been down but should be much improved and those contests will be on the road.

Following the BFS Duke example, here is my prediction.

MTSU - W - Home FBS opener at BFS that spells WIN!
NSU - W - Come on now! WIN!
@ App State - W - In a shocker to all but our guys we take down the conference favorites. WIN!
Texas State - W - Withers Bowl, you know what also starts with a W? That's right, WIN!
@ Ark State - W - SBC West is weak so that's another WIN!
@ GSU - W - The Clay Helton show's wheels come off in a big road game. WIN!
Marshall - W - Homecoming? WIN!
@ Louisville - W - Sorry ACC, but I smell another WIN!
@ ODU - W - mmmm oysters. WIN!
GA State - W - We're rolling now. WIN!
CCU - W - How else to end the year but with another WIN!

MTSU - W
NSU - W
@ App State - L
Texas State - W
@ Ark State - W
@ GSU - W
Marshall - L
@ Louisville - W (team is pumped for ACC win)
@ ODU - L (awful, and good fodder for next year)
GA State - L
CCU - W (they get caught looking past us)

6-5 would be amazing for year 1 in SBC-E

Here is a different, VERY optimistic "what Sagarin says" view from last season, though I generally don't put too much faith in this. A lot can change in the offseason, with coaching and player changes. Likely we will beat some teams we aren't expected to, and also lose to a couple we don't expect.

MTSU - W
NSU - W
@ App State - L
Texas State - W
@ Ark State - W
@ GSU - W
Marshall - W
@ Louisville - L
@ ODU - W
GA State - W
CCU - W

So, "Sagarin says" 9-2 based on 2021 results, with the following all being close one-score games: App St, Marshall, Louisville, Georgia St, Coastal Carolina.

In a few of these like Coastal, home field advantage (+ 1.97) is a factor in the (Ratings) prediction and would swing the result.

Personally, I do hope/think we will be 6-5 or better, but don't believe Sagarin accounts for factors like the roster depth advantages of FBS teams.

Anything north of 4 wins will be a successful start to FBS.

Another data point, the ESPN SP+ preseason rating from Feb would put us around 6-5, depending on how home field is accounted for.

Would be interesting to see how all the various ranking systems stack up, and compare to our first year results. Bill C just released his SBC West preview/predictions, and will probably follow up with an SBC East one also soon.

Sunbelt West Preview
https://www.espn.com/college-football/in...heir-perch

SP+ Preseason rankings
https://www.espn.com/college-football/in...tions-2022

29 Louisville
56 Marshall
60 App St
73 Coastal
75 Georgia St
90 JMU
95 ODU
104 MTSU
105 Georgia So
118 Texas St
121 Ark St

Hey if any of you guys want to really dive deeper into predictions, you should account for any quick turnaround games , usually only 5 days and games with extra time off before. Sometimes you maybe playing someone on normal 7 days rest but they are coming off 10 or 14 days rest.

Also seeing how JMU plays on the road will be another line item of learning. Road games are going to be a whole lot different than they used to be for you guys. Even bad teams play a lot better at home, which makes winning on the road harder than on paper says it should be.

(04-20-2022 03:17 PM)balanced_view Wrote:  Hey if any of you guys want to really dive deeper into predictions, you should account for any quick turnaround games , usually only 5 days and games with extra time off before. Sometimes you maybe playing someone on normal 7 days rest but they are coming off 10 or 14 days rest.

Also seeing how JMU plays on the road will be another line item of learning. Road games are going to be a whole lot different than they used to be for you guys. Even bad teams play a lot better at home, which makes winning on the road harder than on paper says it should be.

For sure. There are big differences.
Some of those things we are embracing as fans (and I'm sure the team is as well).
1. Locations. We were usually traveling north to Maine and NH, and now we will be going to Texas and Louisiana. Now WE are the northern team which is kind of humorous. Snow won't be as much of an issue like it has been, but hot weather absolutely will be. I am curious to see how we handle that.
2. Environment. Every game is going to have fans and a great home field advantage. I think it's going to be great. One thing that was a challenge for our team was going from a packed home environment to an away FCS game with very little fan support. I know there have been plenty of times our team came out flat due to lack of energy. UNH was one of those places we were famous for coming out flat. I would like to think that they might embrace the idea that opposing teams have fans that are actually into the game. I think concerns of those types of games are going to be far fewer.
We have also played in places with ridiculous home field advantages. The Fargodome is a big one. The decibel levels in there are ridiculous. Thank god we won't have to play there again (unless they ever make the move up).
I would absolutely like to say I think we'll be a better away team than many think we will be, but time will tell. There are certainly going to be some tough locations and I look forward to seeing how we deal with it.
As a fan, I am psyched to go to these new places and have banter with schools that actually have fans!

Massey has us ranked 104th, which is 6th best in the Sun Belt. Not bad for not playing a single game.

They think we'll finish 5-6 based on the W/L probability score. Strictly following the point spreads, we will go:

MTSU - W 2 point favs
NSU - W 29 point favs
App - L 7 point dogs
TSU - W 4 point favs
Ark St - L 1 point dogs
Ga So - L 2 point dogs
Marshall - W 1 point favs
UL - L 14 point dogs
ODU - L 3 point dogs
GA St - L 3 point dogs
CCU - L 3 point dogs

Tough end to the season losing 4 in a row and 6 of the last 7.

I personally think we're a 6 or 7 win team.

If it’s hunting season, or, if the Hogs are home, no one will be at Arkansas St

(04-19-2022 03:12 PM)JMad03 Wrote:  6-5 or better and I would be elated.
5-6 or 4-7- to be expected
3-8 - could be expected but meh
2-7 or worse - disappointment

My prediction is 5-6.

Personally, I say 4 wins or worse is a disappointment. 5 or 6 wins is meh. 7+ is a great season.

(04-20-2022 03:17 PM)balanced_view Wrote:  Hey if any of you guys want to really dive deeper into predictions, you should account for any quick turnaround games , usually only 5 days and games with extra time off before. Sometimes you maybe playing someone on normal 7 days rest but they are coming off 10 or 14 days rest.

Also seeing how JMU plays on the road will be another line item of learning. Road games are going to be a whole lot different than they used to be for you guys. Even bad teams play a lot better at home, which makes winning on the road harder than on paper says it should be.

I think it might have the opposite effect. A lot of FCS road games were played in front of a couple thousand fans at best and they were usually quiet home fans.

I think a livelier atmosphere may engage them better. We've had former JMU players admit that some CAA games up in the northeast were buzz kills to come out and see zero atmosphere. It impacted their energy and then the other team would jump on that. It was almost like a dead, glorified high school game was somehow a homefield advantage in itself.

Then throw in the crappy locker rooms some schools had where they'd have to take cold showers or be outside in the heat in literal tents as locker rooms.