(04-24-2022 03:58 PM)FonzKnight Wrote:  UAB and FAU are smart adds. Don’t sleep on the Owls— they’ll make strides quickly. It would not surprise me if they (and UAB) join Memphis and SMU at the top of the conference sooner than later. UTSA has some potential we are already starting to see. No offense but.. the rest of the new adds, I just don’t get it.

If ECU can get right again too I don’t see the American having much of an issue holding the Mountain West off for the auto bid most years.

Massive improvement will be required stave off the MWC. Otherwise, the AAC will be in contention with Sunbelt for the 2nd G5 spot. For example, the 2021 Massey Index using the new AAC shows an average by conference of: 69 for MWC, 84 for Sunbelt, and 85 for the AAC.

(04-24-2022 04:51 PM)b2b Wrote:  

(04-24-2022 03:38 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  With the CUSA6 additions, the AAC gains another Florida school, a good basketball, soccer and tennis school, a rabid football school, and 3 additional Texas schools which will lock up the state of Texas for the AAC. I would say that these are good additions that will bring good fruit to the conference.

A rabid football school? LOL. I can see how a SMU fan would think all these Texas schools are great. As an Eastern fan it sucks. It's CTEX all over again but a lower quality.

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I have never heard of CTEX. What is it? Would it be better in your view to have eastern teams in the Western Division?

(04-24-2022 06:10 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(04-24-2022 04:51 PM)b2b Wrote:  

(04-24-2022 03:38 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  With the CUSA6 additions, the AAC gains another Florida school, a good basketball, soccer and tennis school, a rabid football school, and 3 additional Texas schools which will lock up the state of Texas for the AAC. I would say that these are good additions that will bring good fruit to the conference.

A rabid football school? LOL. I can see how a SMU fan would think all these Texas schools are great. As an Eastern fan it sucks. It's CTEX all over again but a lower quality.

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I have never heard of CTEX. What is it? Would it be better in your view to have eastern teams in the Western Division?

I believe he was referring to CUSA West: 4 TX schools plus Tulsa and Tulane.

(04-24-2022 07:00 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(04-24-2022 06:10 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(04-24-2022 04:51 PM)b2b Wrote:  

(04-24-2022 03:38 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  With the CUSA6 additions, the AAC gains another Florida school, a good basketball, soccer and tennis school, a rabid football school, and 3 additional Texas schools which will lock up the state of Texas for the AAC. I would say that these are good additions that will bring good fruit to the conference.

A rabid football school? LOL. I can see how a SMU fan would think all these Texas schools are great. As an Eastern fan it sucks. It's CTEX all over again but a lower quality.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

I have never heard of CTEX. What is it? Would it be better in your view to have eastern teams in the Western Division?

I believe he was referring to CUSA West: 4 TX schools plus Tulsa and Tulane.

Ah yes, in 2012 we had Tulsa, SMU, Rice, Houston, UTEP, and Tulane in C-USA West. That's probably it. So in 2023 we will have Tulsa, SMU, Rice, UNT, UTSA, Tulane, Navy and Wichita St. in the AAC West. UNT and UTSA may be lower quality than Houston and UTEP but I'd say it was close.

(04-24-2022 05:14 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  

(04-24-2022 03:58 PM)FonzKnight Wrote:  UAB and FAU are smart adds. Don’t sleep on the Owls— they’ll make strides quickly. It would not surprise me if they (and UAB) join Memphis and SMU at the top of the conference sooner than later. UTSA has some potential we are already starting to see. No offense but.. the rest of the new adds, I just don’t get it.

If ECU can get right again too I don’t see the American having much of an issue holding the Mountain West off for the auto bid most years.

Massive improvement will be required stave off the MWC. Otherwise, the AAC will be in contention with Sunbelt for the 2nd G5 spot. For example, the 2021 Massey Index using the new AAC shows an average by conference of: 69 for MWC, 84 for Sunbelt, and 85 for the AAC.

Is that a fair comparison? The departures happened to rank 1,2,3 last year, and they played against all the teams you're including in the "leftover" AAC above. I think you would have to solve for those conference games being played to get true adjusted Massey rating.

(04-25-2022 07:32 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(04-24-2022 05:14 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  

(04-24-2022 03:58 PM)FonzKnight Wrote:  UAB and FAU are smart adds. Don’t sleep on the Owls— they’ll make strides quickly. It would not surprise me if they (and UAB) join Memphis and SMU at the top of the conference sooner than later. UTSA has some potential we are already starting to see. No offense but.. the rest of the new adds, I just don’t get it.

If ECU can get right again too I don’t see the American having much of an issue holding the Mountain West off for the auto bid most years.

Massive improvement will be required stave off the MWC. Otherwise, the AAC will be in contention with Sunbelt for the 2nd G5 spot. For example, the 2021 Massey Index using the new AAC shows an average by conference of: 69 for MWC, 84 for Sunbelt, and 85 for the AAC.

Is that a fair comparison? The departures happened to rank 1,2,3 last year, and they played against all the teams you're including in the "leftover" AAC above. I think you would have to solve for those conference games being played to get true adjusted Massey rating.

The departures made up three of the top four last year on Massey's rating (SMU was third). I took out the three schools leaving the AAC in my calculations.

All stats have limitations, but it is beyond my capacity to adjust. My degrees are in business, not statistics. You are welcome to it.

(04-24-2022 03:38 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  With the CUSA6 additions, the AAC gains another Florida school, a good basketball, soccer and tennis school, a rabid football school, and 3 additional Texas schools which will lock up the state of Texas for the AAC. I would say that these are good additions that will bring good fruit to the conference.

clt says we are a soccer, tennis and golf school.

(04-25-2022 09:05 AM)ghostofclt! Wrote:  

(04-24-2022 03:38 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  With the CUSA6 additions, the AAC gains another Florida school, a good basketball, soccer and tennis school, a rabid football state/school, and 3 additional Texas schools which will lock up the state of Texas for the AAC. I would say that these are good additions that will bring good fruit to the conference.

clt says we are a soccer, tennis and golf school.

duly noted

(04-25-2022 07:45 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  

(04-25-2022 07:32 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(04-24-2022 05:14 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  

(04-24-2022 03:58 PM)FonzKnight Wrote:  UAB and FAU are smart adds. Don’t sleep on the Owls— they’ll make strides quickly. It would not surprise me if they (and UAB) join Memphis and SMU at the top of the conference sooner than later. UTSA has some potential we are already starting to see. No offense but.. the rest of the new adds, I just don’t get it.

If ECU can get right again too I don’t see the American having much of an issue holding the Mountain West off for the auto bid most years.

Massive improvement will be required stave off the MWC. Otherwise, the AAC will be in contention with Sunbelt for the 2nd G5 spot. For example, the 2021 Massey Index using the new AAC shows an average by conference of: 69 for MWC, 84 for Sunbelt, and 85 for the AAC.

Is that a fair comparison? The departures happened to rank 1,2,3 last year, and they played against all the teams you're including in the "leftover" AAC above. I think you would have to solve for those conference games being played to get true adjusted Massey rating.

The departures made up three of the top four last year on Massey's rating (SMU was third). I took out the three schools leaving the AAC in my calculations.

All stats have limitations, but it is beyond my capacity to adjust. My degrees are in business, not statistics. You are welcome to it.

Right, but just using my team as example. If ECU didn't play those three teams last year, then at 10-2 they'd probably have a higher massey composite. The math you're using above considers all the downside but none of the upside of losing those three teams.

Looking at the Massey ratings for the G5 college football conferences in 2022, we have the AAC=7.45, MWC=7.31, SBC=6.94, C-USA=6.81, MAC=6.71

(04-25-2022 01:20 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  Looking at the Massey ratings for the G5 college football conferences in 2022, we have the AAC=7.45, MWC=7.31, SBC=6.94, C-USA=6.81, MAC=6.71

Is that pre- or post-realignment?

(04-25-2022 02:07 PM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(04-25-2022 01:20 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  Looking at the Massey ratings for the G5 college football conferences in 2022, we have the AAC=7.45, MWC=7.31, SBC=6.94, C-USA=6.81, MAC=6.71

Is that pre- or post-realignment?

2022

(04-25-2022 02:25 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(04-25-2022 02:07 PM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(04-25-2022 01:20 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  Looking at the Massey ratings for the G5 college football conferences in 2022, we have the AAC=7.45, MWC=7.31, SBC=6.94, C-USA=6.81, MAC=6.71

Is that pre- or post-realignment?

2022

What’s 2023 look like?

Add in the CUSA6 and subtract the big 12 bound 3 and where does the AAC stack up?

(04-25-2022 11:46 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  Add in the CUSA6 and subtract the big 12 bound 3 and where does the AAC stack up?

I don't think it's that simple. Give the newbies a few years in the AAC for comparison. They haven't had the advantage of higher budgets and higher viewership yet.

(04-26-2022 07:37 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(04-25-2022 11:46 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  Add in the CUSA6 and subtract the big 12 bound 3 and where does the AAC stack up?

I don't think it's that simple. Give the newbies a few years in the AAC for comparison. They haven't had the advantage of higher budgets and higher viewership yet.

I don't think you need a few years to get a current snapshot of the AAC situation. The teams leaving the AAC is a huge loss for the conference and has brought the league back to the rest of the G5 pack and in particular the SBC and MWC from a competitiveness perspective in football. The AAC is still leaps and bounds ahead of the other G5 conferences in basketball (MWC excluded) even with the deadweight associated with the CUSA-6.

The future of the AAC faces a lot of uncertainty; how long will Aresco be around? How will the landscape of college football change in the next 5 years? How many of the current AAC-8 programs will still be in the conference in the next 5 years? This was not a good time for the AAC to take two or three steps backward given the current landscape of college athletics.

My opinion is the road ahead of the AAC, no the entire G5 is going to be a long one. I say hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Sticking your head in the sand and pretending everything will be alright will only set you up for further disappointment.

The AAC will be fine long run, short term the MWC likely has a leg up. AAC leftovers still get more $$ and exposure, and new schools get more $$, by quite a bit than they had plus more exposure. $$$$ and exposure will separate them from Belt, Mac, and CUSA pretty quickly, and catch them up to and eventually jump the MWC.

(04-26-2022 07:49 AM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  

(04-26-2022 07:37 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(04-25-2022 11:46 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  Add in the CUSA6 and subtract the big 12 bound 3 and where does the AAC stack up?

I don't think it's that simple. Give the newbies a few years in the AAC for comparison. They haven't had the advantage of higher budgets and higher viewership yet.

I don't think you need a few years to get a current snapshot of the AAC situation. The teams leaving the AAC is a huge loss for the conference and has brought the league back to the rest of the G5 pack and in particular the SBC from a competitiveness perspective in football. The AAC is still leaps and bounds ahead of the other G5 conferences in basketball even with the deadweight associated with the CUSA-6.

The future of the AAC faces a lot of uncertainty; how long will Aresco be around? How will the landscape of college football change in the next 5 years? How many of the current AAC-8 programs will still be in the conference in the next 5 years? This was not a good time for the AAC to take two or three steps backward given the current landscape of college athletics.

My opinion is the road ahead of the AAC, no the entire G5 is going to be a long one. I say hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Sticking your head in the sand and pretending everything will be alright will only set you up for further disappointment.

I share your view, but you are more elegance and concise than me on the subject.

(04-26-2022 08:00 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  The AAC will be fine long run, short term the MWC likely has a leg up. AAC leftovers still get more $$ and exposure, and new schools get more $$, by quite a bit than they had plus more exposure. $$$$ and exposure will separate them from Belt, Mac, and CUSA pretty quickly, and catch them up to and eventually jump the MWC.

I say lets see what the new MWC TV deal will look like in 2025. Also, the CUSA-6 isn't going to be getting 7 mil like the current AAC-8, 2 mil is better than $500,000 so that is definite benefit for the CUSA-6. The CUSA-6 will still need to capitalize on this new opportunity but there are definitely new challenges ahead that the original AAC-11 did not have to deal with when Aresco was growing the conference.

(04-26-2022 07:49 AM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  

(04-26-2022 07:37 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(04-25-2022 11:46 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  Add in the CUSA6 and subtract the big 12 bound 3 and where does the AAC stack up?

I don't think it's that simple. Give the newbies a few years in the AAC for comparison. They haven't had the advantage of higher budgets and higher viewership yet.

I don't think you need a few years to get a current snapshot of the AAC situation. The teams leaving the AAC is a huge loss for the conference and has brought the league back to the rest of the G5 pack and in particular the SBC and MWC from a competitiveness perspective in football. The AAC is still leaps and bounds ahead of the other G5 conferences in basketball (MWC excluded) even with the deadweight associated with the CUSA-6.

The future of the AAC faces a lot of uncertainty; how long will Aresco be around? How will the landscape of college football change in the next 5 years? How many of the current AAC-8 programs will still be in the conference in the next 5 years? This was not a good time for the AAC to take two or three steps backward given the current landscape of college athletics.

My opinion is the road ahead of the AAC, no the entire G5 is going to be a long one. I say hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Sticking your head in the sand and pretending everything will be alright will only set you up for further disappointment.

Time machine back to 2014