After leaving JMU off of the FPI for a few days, ESPN now has JMU in the list of FBS schools in FPI. We come in with a low ranking of 120 out of 132 FBS schools. I have to think JMU will overperform there and get closer to around 100.

Full List

Sun Belt

JMU's schedule versus current ranking:

vs. MTSU - 84
vs. NSU - N/A
@ App State - 53
vs. TXST - 116
@ Ark State - 106
@ GASU - 105
vs. Marshall - 58
@ Louisville - 36
@ODU - 111
vs. GA State - 85
vs. CCU - 77

Really hard to take their ranking of us seriously when they left us out in the first place.
We are definitely underrated.

ESPN only pays attention to P5 and the latest G5 darlings - used to be Boise St, Hawaii, and TCU, more recently it is UCF, Cincinnati, and App St. Only if it's something that gives Joe Everyfan a whiff of "Oh yeah, I've heard of them." Once they have juiced all the talking heads segments they can from it, they move on to the next shiny object... probably LeBron or Tom Brady.

That list loses all credibility when I see Texas at 6.

So if we take it exactly as ranked, they're predicting JMU will lose every game but our FCS opponent? Extremely unlikely.

(04-15-2022 01:52 PM)Potomac Wrote:  So if we take it exactly as ranked, they're predicting JMU will lose every game but our FCS opponent? Extremely unlikely.

They have our record as 3.5-7.5 which I'm reading as likely 3 to 4 wins. That likely means NSU plus a few of the other Sun Belt schools they have in the 100s.

Big Game Cig is gonna get us an FBS against #84 MTSU

This may be an unpopular opinion, but I don't have a problem with the 120 ranking because we have yet to prove ourselves after moving to FBS. We are unproven, but like others have stated, I believe we will certainly win a few and even surprise others for a win.

Seems like some great bulletin board material. Especially when these guys are used to getting a ton of respect and being expected to win every Saturday.

If that win total at 3.5 wins becomes bettable I’m hammering the over. I think we most likely win 6. I think we beat Texas state, Norfolk state, GA Southern, ODU, and Arkansas state. I think there’s a good chance we beat mtsu to make it 6 but that game could go either way. I think we have a chance against Georgia State, Louisville, and Marshall but could potentially lose all 3 of those. I don’t think we have too much of a chance against App or Coastal in year 1. Obviously we could lose more of those games but that’s my preseason prediction

I’m trying to enter this season with pretty much no expectations. If we have a winning season, it could only be described as a huge success. Pretty cool to not be overlooking some of the season’s games like past years.

(04-18-2022 01:26 PM)HyperDuke Wrote:  I’m trying to enter this season with pretty much no expectations. If we have a winning season, it could only be described as a huge success. Pretty cool to not be overlooking some of the season’s games like past years.

It's hard for me to say the same. I cannot help but want us to do well and show that not every FCS to FBS transfer is the same. I think a strong season 1 would show that we weren't just an FCS power.
I would say .500 or a game under .500 would be a great start. Anything better than that and I would be incredibly happy. Anything less and I would be disappointed but to be expected.

Going back to the low RPI, I bet Cignetti was smiling from ear to ear when he saw it.
This team is going to have to earn every single game and even the Norfolk State game is important to a degree.

(04-18-2022 01:26 PM)HyperDuke Wrote:  I’m trying to enter this season with pretty much no expectations. If we have a winning season, it could only be described as a huge success. Pretty cool to not be overlooking some of the season’s games like past years.

but 11-0 and book it tho

(04-19-2022 09:57 AM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  

(04-18-2022 01:26 PM)HyperDuke Wrote:  I’m trying to enter this season with pretty much no expectations. If we have a winning season, it could only be described as a huge success. Pretty cool to not be overlooking some of the season’s games like past years.

but 11-0 and book it tho

That's what I'm saying.

Are JMU fans (excluding Deez) sandbagging? A winning season would be a “huge success”? Really? Seriously?? My goodness, JMU hasn’t been playing flag football these past many years.

A winning season is not only to be expected, it would be a disappointment if it’s not realized. The biggest question is QB play, and that will be determined in part by the quality of OL play.

JMU FB is more than ready to compete (and win) against any of this season’s G5 competitors. There’s not a team on the schedule JMU can’t beat. The JMU team is fast, big and talented. Our SBC opponents will be all that too, but bring it on. FBS is here, and JMU belongs, and can win, now. Not next year, or the year after. Now.

Yes. To have a winning season in our first year with a full FBS schedule (with no transition year) would be a HUGE success.

Longhorn, I’m wanting a win every time we step onto the field. But acting like we’re EXPECTED to hit 8+ wins sounds just like Hart every year before basketball season. Inflated preseason expectations in order to justify illogical anger when those exceedingly lofty goals aren’t met. Either that, or it’s just ignorance about the quality of our SBC FB opponents.

I’m not EXPECTING us to lose 5-6 games. I have NO CLUE what to expect!

If we were joining the CUSA or MAC I'd agree that less than a winning season is a disappointment, but the SBC East is probably the best division in G5 and probably better than some P5 divisions. I think every game on our schedule is winnable, but getting through the entire slate with a winning record is far from a given even assuming whoever starts at QB doesn't end up being a big drop off from Cole. Plus we have some serious question marks, including QB obviously but other areas too including both lines losing their best player from last year.

I think the 4-7 to 6-5 range is a pretty realistic expectation for this year with anything better being a pretty huge positive. The biggest thing to me is how we lose when we lose, are we getting blown out and/or outcoached or are we losing close games due to depth/talent that we can expect to start winning after a little more time of FBS recruiting? I'd rather see 4-7 with a bunch of tight losses due to depth against strong opponents than 5-6 where it turns out ODU/TXST/MTSU/GaSo suck this year but everyone else smokes us.

I'd also be more confident if we were transitioning a year earlier. Where we still have Cole, Greene, Fornadel, Wells, etc. Kinda like 2017 expectations vs 2018, we had every reason to be extremely confident in 2017(and 2021) while 2018 and 2022 had/have a lot more question marks.

We'll see, no matter what it'll be an interesting and entertaining season and the future is really exciting.

What tempers my expectations for this year is a combination of more unknowns than usual, plus precedent of what has happened with other transitions.

App St posted records of 4-8, 7-5 in their first two transition years, with more FCS teams on their schedule both years, and playing in an SBC that wasn't nearly as strong as it is now.

The question marks for me are how well our lines and receivers stack up against larger FBS players (relative to past FCS opponents), and will the weekly grind of FBS games cause depth issues for us. We also don't yet know how our QB play will compare to prior seasons.

I'm hoping for, and would be pretty happy with 6-5 or better. NSU is still a scrimmage level game. Going 0.500 against SBC east, arguably the strongest G5 division, would be pretty good for year 1. Anything more is icing.

A purple glasses on prediction might be a 8-3 or 9-2 season if everything clicks, but that would be a spectacular debut. After a couple years recruiting as an FBS team, I think thats where we might be.

(04-19-2022 04:20 PM)HyperDuke Wrote:  Yes. To have a winning season in our first year with a full FBS schedule (with no transition year) would be a HUGE success.

Longhorn, I’m wanting a win every time we step onto the field. But acting like we’re EXPECTED to hit 8+ wins sounds just like Hart every year before basketball season. Inflated preseason expectations in order to justify illogical anger when those exceedingly lofty goals aren’t met. Either that, or it’s just ignorance about the quality of our SBC FB opponents.

I’m not EXPECTING us to lose 5-6 games. I have NO CLUE what to expect!

Did I predict 8 wins? I’ll wait.

What I objected to is the notion that having a winning season is “HUGE”…your emphasis. A winning season is expected. A winning season is the goal. A winning season is entirely reasonable. It would definitely not be “HUGE” for a well funded, well coached, talented team.

Tell you what…attend this Saturday’s scrimmage and after the game run that language by a coach or player. Ask them if they think simply having a winning season would be “HUGE”….

Sure, you didn’t say 8 wins. What is your expected win total?

It would absolutely be huge. It has nothing to do with coach/player mentality or approach.