It may not happen with ESPN’s intervention, but it could happen. Departure of Texas/OK and how they settle Big12 GOR will set a precedence (set to expire in 2025?). We may not need to wait till 2036 for ACC GOR to expire to see more movement. SEC and B10 are waiting like vultures, especially B10 is getting restless seeing SEC strengthening. Let’s say in 5 or 10 years SEC grabs Clemson and FSU. B10 responds by taking UVA, VT, GT and UNC. What does ACC do? Which schools and how many does ACC add?

Assuming ACC is down to 9:
BC
Cuse
Pitt
ND
Louisville
WF
Duke
NC State
Miami

BE: UConn is obviously the easy addition. But would ACC consider any of the other bball only members? Georgetown perhaps to reignite old rivalries with Cuse etc. Would GTown or other bball schools reciprocate the interest?

BIG12: Would eastern teams like WVU, Cincy and UCF be interested in a depleted ACC? Is current BIG12 better than the depleted ACC?

AAC: Temple, USF, Memphis?

Would Miami be ok with UCF and/or USF? BC with UConn?

Interesting.

The first move is to see if the ACC can still raid the Big 12, then the AAC if the Big12 sticks together.

Tier1 go after first: Kansas, Iowa State, Ok State, TCU, WV, Cincy, UCF

Tier 2 best 2nd choices: Baylor, Hou, TT, Kan St, USF, Memphis, Uconn

Tier 3: AAC schools

I'm not sure I understand why Georgetown is the hypothetical non-FB school the ACC would ever allegedly add rather than Villanova. Is it just for Syracuse's sake? It just seems like it would serve the interests of way more members to get the strongest program out there that doesn't have football.

100% any east coast Big 12 teams jump. It’s common sense. Easier recruiting opps. Regionality. Rivalries that make sense. No chance UC or UCF would pass. Not sure WVU would get in though unless they lose all of Clemson, FSU, UNC, and Duke, with GaTech and UVA right behind them.

It’s basically the Big East without the Catholic schools. The way it ought to be. Big 12 can easily survive with the likes of Memphis (if available), SMU, and CSU. BSU also number 4 on that list.

In this scenario, and as RUScarlets notes, the remaining ACC programs could invite the "East-centric" Big 12 programs and the Big 12 backfills and remains a very solid league. Another scenario is a "merger" between the ACC and Big 12. In other words, programs such as, for example, Wake Forest and Louisville should be fine when the dust settles. Those two might not be members of a future league that is all-around as strong as the current ACC. But they likely will be part of a quality conference.

UConn likely will be part of the future mass shake-up (and I feel that earthquake of league movement is coming), as it could join an all-sports league. The two other Big East programs that could be members of an all-sports league (with neither offering DI-A football) are Georgetown and Villanova.

(04-14-2022 06:23 AM)ibby10 Wrote:  It may not happen with ESPN’s intervention, but it could happen. Departure of Texas/OK and how they settle Big12 GOR will set a precedence (set to expire in 2025?). We may not need to wait till 2036 for ACC GOR to expire to see more movement. SEC and B10 are waiting like vultures, especially B10 is getting restless seeing SEC strengthening. Let’s say in 5 or 10 years SEC grabs Clemson and FSU. B10 responds by taking UVA, VT, GT and UNC. What does ACC do? Which schools and how many does ACC add?

Assuming ACC is down to 9:
BC
Cuse
Pitt
ND
Louisville
WF
Duke
NC State
Miami

BE: UConn is obviously the easy addition. But would ACC consider any of the other bball only members? Georgetown perhaps to reignite old rivalries with Cuse etc. Would GTown or other bball schools reciprocate the interest?

BIG12: Would eastern teams like WVU, Cincy and UCF be interested in a depleted ACC? Is current BIG12 better than the depleted ACC?

AAC: Temple, USF, Memphis?

Would Miami be ok with UCF and/or USF? BC with UConn?

While I don't agree with the schools you posit would be poached, I do think the remnants of such an ACC would be dangerously close to losing its presumption as a power conference, at least in football. And, at that point, there would be little they could add that would improve that position with schools they could attract.

Instead, and because I believe it would be necessary for ESPN to play the role of broker even before it gets to that point, I think it would be more likely there would be a merger of the ACC and Big 12 under the ESPN umbrella (with the ACCN including what I think would be 18 schools).

This is one possible outcome (listed in order of their 10 year mean Sagarin rating (MSR):

Mid East Conference (MEC)

West: Clemson, Oklahoma State, Florida State, Baylor, Kansas State, Miami, Georgia Tech, BYU and Texas Tech

East: TCU, West Virginia, Louisville, Pitt, Iowa State, UCF, Houston, Cincinnati and Syracuse

*****************************************************************

Note that in this scenario, the B1G has poached UNC, Duke, Virginia and Kansas and ESPN encourages the SEC to take NC State and Virginia Tech.

Notre Dame, Boston College and Wake Forest go to the Big East and play FBS football as independents, with Wake and BC guaranteed preferred scheduling partners from their former conference mates for FB and substantial financial compensation spread out over many years.

In turn, this facilitates a breakaway from the NCAA by the (now) four power football conferences and the Big East, who can sponsor their own 8 team CFP and 64 team basketball tournament. Both of those post season events could include schools left behind in the NCAA to bolster the winner's claim to a legitimately national championship.

(04-14-2022 06:55 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  I'm not sure I understand why Georgetown is the hypothetical non-FB school the ACC would ever allegedly add rather than Villanova. Is it just for Syracuse's sake? It just seems like it would serve the interests of way more members to get the strongest program out there that doesn't have football.

Georgetown fills the regional gap when Maryland left, has the academic chops alongside Duke, Virginia, Wake, BC, etc., and plays a similar group of minor sports such as lacrosse.

Institutionally, Georgetown struggles to see how elevating its football program can be successful without harming basketball, whose own problems are well evident outside the campus but strangely unseen within it.

As highlighted in the other thread, there are significantly financial and athletic-driven hurdles for Big East schools (not UConn) wanting (assumption) to jump to a raided/watered-down ACC. I won't recite the entire post, but it's there for those of interest.

Under these parameters, I would think the ACC would prioritize 1) Cincinnati 2) UCF 3) West Virginia 4) Temple 5) USF and 6) UConn as potential membership additions. The most valuable pursuit for this version of the ACC would be to secure UCF and USF, as - with Miami, the ACC would eliminate the Big 12 and AAC from having a presence in Florida. This would be very valuable in terms of markets and recruiting. Cincinnati, West Virginia and UConn would have history with many of the established ACC members. Adding Temple (Philadelphia), given that they can figure out a long-term stadium solution, would provide value as well for a nice North/South split in football, and add another historically strong basketball program (although they have fallen within the AAC).

North
Boston College
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
Syracuse
Temple
UConn
West Virginia

South
Duke
Louisville
Miami
NC State
UCF
USF
Wake Forest

Non-Football: Notre Dame (if they stay, losing UNC, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Florida State, for academic and athletic purposes could really sting, but I don't see them pursuing the SEC or B1G either).

Using your Scenario, I think Kansas, Iowa State, Ok State, TCU would be more inclined to be part of a PAC/BIG XII realignment.
With that being said and assuming the ACC is down to 9:
It's UCF, USF, WV, Cincy, Memphis, Navy, Temple, UConn

EAST
BC
UConn
Temple
WF
Duke
NC State
UCF
Miami
WEST
Navy+/ Notre Dame*
Syracuse
Pitt
WV
Cincinnati
Louisville
Memphis
USF

ND stays independent in FB

UCF
WVU
Cincinnati
Memphis
UConn

Probably that order. Maybe swap Cincy and WVU.

Here we go again

Alabama, Ohio State, and Oregon. Maybe Texas for good measure.

I would like to see a thread with some actual numbers as to how much the Big Ten stands to make by “raiding” the ACC.

I would also like to see any proof that the ACC schools in question have interest in the Big Ten, because 10 years ago when it hit the fan, ACC schools contacted the SEC, not the Big Ten.

I’m expecting the typical “money talks” response with no proof or evidence.

I know as a fan, I would rather see Carolina play Kentucky, Tennessee, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida than Maryland, Rutgers, Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan. Where would I rather go to an away game in November, Athens, GA or Columbus, OH? Hmmmmmmm

That being said, ESPN absolutely has time on their side to renegotiate with their ACC properties. A decade is a long time and we’re already seeing Miami rise to the top. FSU is a little handicapped with their laws right now, but they absolutely should hire Coach Prime because top players are willing to go to Jackson St. just to play for him!

If FSU can get back on track, we’re having a different conversation in FIVE years. Miami and FSU are national brands. When I was growing up, I saw a lot more Miami and FSU starter jackets than Alabama and Georgia.

I'll play.

If Armageddon happens (and I don't see it for a decade if it happens):

A few assumptions. The new league will have lots of brand names but TV dollars won't come close to the bigger made for TV leagues. Notre Dame obviously wants academics over the insanity that ripped the leagues apart and why they stayed. This needs to be the way.

Every recruited athlete is guaranteed 5 years of education if they meet minimum standards. Each player receives a monthly stipend. However, they sign over their rights to unionize and collect money off of NIL. Each player has the right to transfer without penalty but the schools will agree to an orderly process.

This will be the antithesis of the SEC.

Assuming ACC is down to 9:
BC
Cuse
Pitt
ND
Louisville
WF
Duke
NC State
Miami

I'd ask Northwestern and Vanderbilt first if they want to join.

Other schools asked in no particular order: UConn, UCF, USF, West Point, Annapolis, Cincy, WVU.

Depending on how it goes could they get enough schools interested in forming a 2nd sister league? Maybe a Western Wing? If so, Air Force would be asked along with others.

Now the kicker: approach the IVY League and see if they want to upgrade. Give them 8 years to get their facilities up to a certain standard.

Finally invite the Big East into this. The PAC12 might see this and join in too. Will the Big 12 remnants say yes?

Could this set up a Good vs Evil Axis? One side is sticking to athletics as a complement to the college experience and the other is about $$ and chaos.

Since this tread is fantasy:

Penn State
South Carolina
Maryland
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Michigan

(04-14-2022 06:23 AM)ibby10 Wrote:  It may not happen with ESPN’s intervention, but it could happen. Departure of Texas/OK and how they settle Big12 GOR will set a precedence (set to expire in 2025?). We may not need to wait till 2036 for ACC GOR to expire to see more movement. SEC and B10 are waiting like vultures, especially B10 is getting restless seeing SEC strengthening. Let’s say in 5 or 10 years SEC grabs Clemson and FSU. B10 responds by taking UVA, VT, GT and UNC. What does ACC do? Which schools and how many does ACC add?

A couple of observations. First, I don't see the highlighted raids as the most likely. UNC is not going anywhere without Duke and VT is not a great institutional fit for the B1G. I think the B1G would be more interested in and likely to get a group consisting of UVA, UNC, Duke and GT. Conversely, I think the SEC would be very interested in VT. Unlike FSU and Clemson, VT actually expands their footprint into new state/market, and one that is in the southeast at that. Indeed, I think the SEC really hoped VT would apply back in 2012 for Mizzou's slot. Then the question is, would the SEC take just one more, or go for 3. Regardless, I think the candidates for the remaining slot(s) would be FSU, Clemson, NC State and Miami. Like the question about who the ACC might backfill with, it may depend on who's good at the time.

The SEC isn't getting any bigger than 16. Once you do more than that - you defeat the purpose of having a conference.

The Big 10 really needs to get to 16 to compete, but I'm not sure the ACC is their only option.

If I were the Big 10 I'd add Kansas and Missouri - if Mizzou isn't an option, I'd add Kansas and Iowa State.


For the ACC, the obvious add is UConn

(04-14-2022 09:34 AM)jgkojak Wrote:  The SEC isn't getting any bigger than 16. Once you do more than that - you defeat the purpose of having a conference.

The Big 10 really needs to get to 16 to compete, but I'm not sure the ACC is their only option.

If I were the Big 10 I'd add Kansas and Missouri - if Mizzou isn't an option, I'd add Kansas and Iowa State.


For the ACC, the obvious add is UConn

I'd argue once you go larger than being able to play every team during a football season you defeat the purpose of having a conference. Those days have long passed, and the game now is to make conferences within a "league". The SEC definitely has room to grow and can be the umbrella for three "conferences" packaged together.

The Big Ten whiffed on a great combo of Syracuse and Kansas ten years ago and now Syracuse is off the table for over a decade.

(04-14-2022 09:30 AM)orangefan Wrote:  

(04-14-2022 06:23 AM)ibby10 Wrote:  It may not happen with ESPN’s intervention, but it could happen. Departure of Texas/OK and how they settle Big12 GOR will set a precedence (set to expire in 2025?). We may not need to wait till 2036 for ACC GOR to expire to see more movement. SEC and B10 are waiting like vultures, especially B10 is getting restless seeing SEC strengthening. Let’s say in 5 or 10 years SEC grabs Clemson and FSU. B10 responds by taking UVA, VT, GT and UNC. What does ACC do? Which schools and how many does ACC add?

A couple of observations. First, I don't see the highlighted raids as the most likely. UNC is not going anywhere without Duke and VT is not a great institutional fit for the B1G. I think the B1G would be more interested in and likely to get a group consisting of UVA, UNC, Duke and GT. Conversely, I think the SEC would be very interested in VT. Unlike FSU and Clemson, VT actually expands their footprint into new state/market, and one that is in the southeast at that. Indeed, I think the SEC really hoped VT would apply back in 2012 for Mizzou's slot. Then the question is, would the SEC take just one more, or go for 3. Regardless, I think the candidates for the remaining slot(s) would be FSU, Clemson, NC State and Miami. Like the question about who the ACC might backfill with, it may depend on who's good at the time.

Once again, ESPN will NOT allow UNC and Duke to go to a competitor.

(04-14-2022 09:46 AM)esayem Wrote:  Once again, ESPN will NOT allow UNC and Duke to go to a competitor.

Not so sure, esp. Duke. The Scheyer years will not be Coach K 2.0.

(04-14-2022 06:23 AM)ibby10 Wrote:  It may not happen with ESPN’s intervention, but it could happen. Departure of Texas/OK and how they settle Big12 GOR will set a precedence (set to expire in 2025?). We may not need to wait till 2036 for ACC GOR to expire to see more movement. SEC and B10 are waiting like vultures, especially B10 is getting restless seeing SEC strengthening. Let’s say in 5 or 10 years SEC grabs Clemson and FSU. B10 responds by taking UVA, VT, GT and UNC. What does ACC do? Which schools and how many does ACC add?

Assuming ACC is down to 9:
BC
Cuse
Pitt
ND
Louisville
WF
Duke
NC State
Miami

BE: UConn is obviously the easy addition. But would ACC consider any of the other bball only members? Georgetown perhaps to reignite old rivalries with Cuse etc. Would GTown or other bball schools reciprocate the interest?

BIG12: Would eastern teams like WVU, Cincy and UCF be interested in a depleted ACC? Is current BIG12 better than the depleted ACC?

AAC: Temple, USF, Memphis?

Would Miami be ok with UCF and/or USF? BC with UConn?

First, as others have noted, It would be Duke instead of VT. For both AAU reasons and rivalries.

As to your Miami question, I think there's a decent chance Miami might go when FL state does.

And I don't think UCONN is leaving the BE for this new ACC, even if BC didn't veto it.

And speaking of the BE, I don't think ND is staying either and is more likely to join the BE.

So we have 7 left:

BC
Cuse
Pitt
Louisville
WF
VT
NC State

And this is where I answer your first question about whether the new ACC is better than the Big12.

Outside of the Big12, there are not a lot of options - Memphis and SFU primarily. They "could" add Temple and/or ECU as well.

And if they can raid the Big12, then Cin, WV, and UCF.

That would make it 12 or 14.

But I think that those that are left are more likely to try to join the Big12 at this point, than to try to raid the B12.

And in that case, I think the 7 try for the B12. And the B12 adds SFU as a travel partner for UCF, and to make an even 20.

If they want to go to 24, then add Memphis, and argue over which 3 others to pick - Boise state, SMU, CO state, ECU, Temple, Tulane, Tulsa, etc.

And at that point, they could split into two 12 member conferences lol