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'22 Season End Simulations [Ohio State - Michigan rematch?]
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Crayton Offline
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'22 Season End Simulations [Ohio State - Michigan rematch?]
Like last year, the purpose of this thread is to examine possible finishes to the season. In the off-/pre-season, team and conference strengths will be highly variable; I'll include average power rankings for each conference. As real games are played, the weekly simulations should hew closer to the true finish.

Last off-season I did more of a week-by-week look, but the final standings were the most interesting, so I'll stick to that. All game info will still be posted. First sim should be up in an hour, unless RL calls.
(This post was last modified: 07-24-2022 11:02 AM by Crayton.)
04-12-2022 11:14 AM
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Crayton Offline
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Posts: 1,998
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RE: '22 Season End Simulations [SEC stumbles out the gate]
Preseason, Sim 125. Georgia lost to Oregon to open the season and Texas A&M lost to Miami a few weeks later. Those two losses put a ceiling on the SEC this sim. Clemson's lone loss came to Notre Dame whose lone loss came to Ohio State whose lone loss came to.. double checks... Indiana. Oklahoma's lone loss came early in the year to Nebraska.

Power-wise, there is lots of parity among the P4 (1581, 1578, 1569, 1567) and... the American (1543). Therefore, no benefit-of-the-doubt for SEC/B1G blue-bloods (see Alabama). And the Pac-12 (1510) sits in the tweener position.

Cincinnati is once again in playoff position. The ACC Champ and Ohio State too look like win-and-in propositions. Notre Dame 'may' stick the landing, but Oklahoma and Utah (who lost to Oregon earlier in the year) will have some pretty great 13th data points to potentially lift them into the playoff.

Week 14 matchups
#1 Clemson (11-1) @ #6 Miami (11-1)
#2 Cincinnati (12-0) @ #11 UCF (11-1)
#3 Ohio St (11-1) @ #26 Minnesota (10-2)
#4 Notre Dame (11-1) **at large**
#5 Oklahoma (11-1) @ #13 OK State (10-2)
#7 Utah (11-1) @ #17 Oregon (10-2)
#8 Alabama (11-1) **at large**
#9 Pittsburgh (11-1) **at large**
#10 Texas A&M (10-2) @ #12 Georgia (11-1)
#14 Air Force (11-1) @ #21 San Diego St (10-2)
#19 Ga Southern (10-2) @ #33 Louisiana (10-2)
#31 WKU (11-2) @ #43 UTSA (8-4)
#20 Western Michigan (10-2) @ #53 Miami(OH) (8-4)

Code:
WEEK: 0
43-24 // #53 Nebraska (1-0) @ #87 Northwestern (0-1)
24-43 // #87 Northwestern (0-1) @ #53 Nebraska (1-0)
39-28 // #72 Wyoming (1-0) @ #88 Illinois (0-1)
20-23 // #105 North Texas (0-1) @ #104 UTEP (1-0)
13-24 // #111 Vanderbilt (0-1) @ #92 Hawaii (1-0)
14-46 // #124 Charlotte (0-1) @ #93 FAU (1-0)
17-29 // #128 UConn (0-1) @ #62 Utah St (1-0)
29-28 // #64 Nevada (1-0) @ #129 New Mexico St (0-1)
30-32 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #71 Florida St (1-0)
14-44 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #46 North Carolina (1-0)
27-29 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #63 WKU (1-0)

WEEK: 1
27-24 // #28 Oregon (0-0) @ #4 Georgia (0-0)
24-27 // #4 Georgia (0-0) @ #28 Oregon (0-0)
21-28 // #5 Notre Dame (0-0) @ #1 Ohio St (0-0)
10-19 // #22 Houston (0-0) @ #64 UTSA (0-0)
24-21 // #74 Florida St (1-0) @ #29 LSU (0-0)
21-24 // #29 LSU (0-0) @ #74 Florida St (1-0)
30-28 // #17 Utah (0-0) @ #31 Florida (0-0)
24-21 // #12 Cincinnati (0-0) @ #33 Arkansas (0-0)
17-14 // #9 Penn State (0-0) @ #38 Purdue (0-0)
21-38 // #45 Western Michigan (0-0) @ #16 Michigan St (0-0)
24-17 // #69 Memphis (0-0) @ #47 Mississippi St (0-0)
10-26 // #48 West Virginia (0-0) @ #18 Pittsburgh (0-0)
26-7 // #46 North Carolina (1-0) @ #49 App St (0-0)
24-55 // #52 Utah St (1-0) @ #2 Alabama (0-0)
36-27 // #65 Tulsa (0-0) @ #53 Wyoming (1-0)
34-44 // #56 Central Michigan (0-0) @ #8 OK State (0-0)
24-26 // #58 TCU (0-0) @ #84 Colorado (0-0)
29-28 // #78 Georgia St (0-0) @ #60 South Carolina (0-0)
20-30 // #68 Miami(OH) (0-0) @ #25 Kentucky (0-0)
29-17 // #26 Boise St (0-0) @ #71 Oregon St (0-0)
24-31 // #72 Virginia Tech (0-0) @ #104 Old Dominion (0-0)
27-24 // #96 Illinois (0-1) @ #76 Indiana (0-0)
35-17 // #85 Army (0-1) @ #79 Coastal Carolina (0-0)
37-24 // #30 NC State (0-0) @ #81 East Carolina (0-0)
53-17 // #66 WKU (1-0) @ #86 Hawaii (1-0)
36-14 // #35 Louisville (0-0) @ #88 Syracuse (0-0)
10-20 // #90 Ball St (0-0) @ #43 Tennessee (0-0)
32-27 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #91 California (0-0)
14-67 // #93 Georgia Tech (0-0) @ #6 Clemson (0-0)
67-14 // #6 Clemson (0-0) @ #93 Georgia Tech (0-0)
20-23 // #94 Rutgers (0-0) @ #70 Boston College (0-0)
10-43 // #95 Kent St (0-0) @ #77 Washington (0-0)
14-31 // #97 Troy (0-0) @ #20 Ole Miss (0-0)
10-68 // #100 Buffalo (0-0) @ #44 Maryland (0-0)
28-32 // #103 UTEP (1-0) @ #3 Oklahoma (0-0)
39-34 // #19 BYU (0-0) @ #106 USF (0-0)
31-28 // #87 FAU (1-0) @ #107 Ohio (0-0)
24-31 // #108 Colorado St (0-0) @ #7 Michigan (0-0)
21-59 // #109 La Tech (0-0) @ #73 Missouri (0-0)
36-21 // #42 SMU (0-0) @ #110 North Texas (0-1)
32-31 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #111 South Alabama (0-0)
21-31 // #115 Arizona (0-0) @ #39 San Diego St (0-0)
13-55 // #117 Rice (0-0) @ #54 USC (0-0)
27-24 // #82 Liberty (0-0) @ #118 Southern Miss (0-0)
17-14 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #119 UNLV (0-0)
13-23 // #121 Texas St (0-0) @ #62 Nevada (1-0)
10-44 // #122 La Monroe (0-0) @ #15 Texas (0-0)
17-26 // #123 Temple (0-0) @ #112 Duke (0-0)
24-45 // #125 Bowling Green (0-0) @ #55 UCLA (0-0)
37-21 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #127 Akron (0-0)
33-13 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #128 UConn (0-1)
20-41 // #129 New Mexico St (0-1) @ #40 Minnesota (0-0)
39-17 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #130 FIU (0-0)
17-39 // #131 UMass (0-0) @ #98 Tulane (0-0)
21-24 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #113 Vanderbilt (0-1)
17-20 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #21 Auburn (0-0)
17-29 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #10 Texas A&M (0-0)
7-29 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #23 Wake Forest (0-0)
17-64 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #32 Miami (0-0)
21-37 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #57 Virginia (0-0)
16-19 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #11 Wisconsin (0-0)
17-39 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #14 Iowa (0-0)
3-34 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #50 Nebraska (1-0)
14-36 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #114 Kansas (0-0)
14-48 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #37 Kansas St (0-0)
27-31 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #24 Iowa St (0-0)
28-31 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #67 Texas Tech (0-0)
17-55 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #13 Baylor (0-0)
16-39 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #36 Arizona St (0-0)
10-35 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #99 Stanford (0-0)
28-37 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #59 Washington St (0-0)
7-41 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #34 UCF (0-0)
17-24 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #75 Navy (1-0)
17-24 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #27 Air Force (0-0)
28-31 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #116 New Mexico (0-0)
27-30 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #51 Fresno St (0-0)
24-27 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #101 San Jose St (0-0)
24-28 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #61 UAB (0-0)
14-37 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #124 Charlotte (0-1)
7-33 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #80 Marshall (0-0)
27-30 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #89 Northern Illinois (0-0)
24-27 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #63 Toledo (0-0)
17-32 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #83 Eastern Michigan (0-0)
14-50 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #120 Arkansas St (0-0)
17-19 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #41 Louisiana (0-0)
20-27 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #105 Ga Southern (0-0)

WEEK: 2
16-13 // #109 Ohio (0-1) @ #9 Penn State (1-0)
17-19 // #16 Baylor (1-0) @ #21 BYU (1-0)
33-16 // #2 Alabama (1-0) @ #17 Texas (1-0)
17-18 // #26 Iowa St (1-0) @ #18 Iowa (1-0)
20-23 // #28 Louisville (1-0) @ #31 UCF (1-0)
24-21 // #71 Colorado (1-0) @ #29 Air Force (1-0)
28-38 // #32 Arizona St (1-0) @ #8 OK State (1-0)
20-37 // #37 Tennessee (1-0) @ #15 Pittsburgh (1-0)
35-42 // #41 UTSA (1-0) @ #73 Army (1-1)
22-17 // #22 Kentucky (1-0) @ #48 Florida (0-1)
17-20 // #49 Fresno St (1-0) @ #81 Oregon St (0-1)
31-28 // #78 South Carolina (0-1) @ #53 Arkansas (0-1)
28-33 // #55 Washington St (1-0) @ #12 Wisconsin (1-0)
21-22 // #60 App St (0-1) @ #11 Texas A&M (1-0)
24-27 // #63 Missouri (1-0) @ #34 Kansas St (1-0)
29-17 // #33 North Carolina (2-0) @ #65 Georgia St (1-0)
29-20 // #47 Houston (0-1) @ #70 Texas Tech (1-0)
44-24 // #46 Memphis (1-0) @ #72 Navy (2-0)
35-34 // #62 UAB (1-0) @ #74 Liberty (1-0)
28-40 // #75 Marshall (1-0) @ #5 Notre Dame (0-1)
31-34 // #82 Eastern Michigan (1-0) @ #40 Louisiana (1-0)
17-18 // #84 Northern Illinois (1-0) @ #45 Tulsa (1-0)
30-17 // #42 USC (1-0) @ #86 Stanford (1-0)
7-16 // #87 Old Dominion (1-0) @ #83 East Carolina (0-1)
20-17 // #52 Virginia (1-0) @ #88 Illinois (1-1)
24-21 // #56 Boston College (1-0) @ #89 Virginia Tech (0-1)
7-69 // #92 San Jose St (1-0) @ #24 Auburn (1-0)
14-28 // #93 Ga Southern (1-0) @ #43 Nebraska (2-0)
28-30 // #94 Duke (1-0) @ #97 Northwestern (0-1)
28-31 // #95 Hawaii (1-1) @ #7 Michigan (1-0)
15-10 // #58 Western Michigan (0-1) @ #99 Ball St (0-1)
7-26 // #103 Kent St (0-1) @ #3 Oklahoma (1-0)
56-21 // #126 UNLV (0-1) @ #105 California (0-1)
31-28 // #108 Middle Tennessee (0-1) @ #107 Colorado St (0-1)
14-38 // #110 Kansas (1-0) @ #59 West Virginia (0-1)
31-28 // #23 Boise St (1-0) @ #111 New Mexico (1-0)
21-32 // #113 Arkansas St (1-0) @ #1 Ohio St (1-0)
31-20 // #25 Wake Forest (1-0) @ #116 Vanderbilt (1-1)
27-13 // #68 Mississippi St (0-1) @ #117 Arizona (0-1)
10-55 // #119 Southern Miss (0-1) @ #30 Miami (1-0)
24-17 // #38 Maryland (1-0) @ #120 Charlotte (1-1)
6-19 // #123 South Alabama (0-1) @ #69 Central Michigan (0-1)
22-13 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #125 Bowling Green (0-1)
14-64 // #127 New Mexico St (0-2) @ #100 UTEP (1-1)
14-15 // #128 Akron (0-1) @ #14 Michigan St (1-0)
30-20 // #96 Syracuse (0-1) @ #129 UConn (0-2)
24-31 // #130 FIU (0-1) @ #121 Texas St (0-1)
14-34 // #131 UMass (0-1) @ #64 Toledo (1-0)
28-36 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #6 Georgia (0-1)
14-41 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #57 LSU (0-1)
28-45 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #19 Ole Miss (1-0)
20-24 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #4 Clemson (1-0)
7-61 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #27 NC State (1-0)
14-49 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #98 Georgia Tech (0-1)
20-23 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #101 Rutgers (0-1)
21-47 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #90 Indiana (0-1)
7-50 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #54 Purdue (0-1)
10-19 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #36 Minnesota (1-0)
23-26 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #79 TCU (0-1)
17-65 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #44 UCLA (1-0)
14-57 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #13 Utah (1-0)
31-34 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #20 Oregon (1-0)
14-29 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #66 Washington (1-0)
7-27 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #10 Cincinnati (1-0)
14-60 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #106 USF (0-1)
21-24 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #124 Temple (0-1)
24-27 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #39 SMU (1-0)
24-42 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #85 Tulane (1-0)
35-39 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #77 Wyoming (1-1)
21-41 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #67 Utah St (1-1)
17-35 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #35 San Diego St (1-0)
20-30 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #61 Nevada (2-0)
24-27 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #114 La Tech (0-1)
13-16 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #118 Rice (0-1)
20-29 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #115 North Texas (0-2)
17-43 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #76 FAU (2-0)
13-31 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #104 Buffalo (0-1)
10-17 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #80 Miami(OH) (0-1)
20-27 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #102 Troy (0-1)
21-28 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #122 La Monroe (0-1)
21-24 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #91 Coastal Carolina (0-1)

WEEK: 3
28-31 // #3 Oklahoma (2-0) @ #42 Nebraska (3-0)
20-17 // #25 Miami (2-0) @ #10 Texas A&M (2-0)
20-31 // #11 BYU (2-0) @ #21 Oregon (2-0)
27-24 // #79 Texas Tech (1-1) @ #24 NC State (2-0)
20-13 // #29 SMU (2-0) @ #28 Maryland (2-0)
21-36 // #30 Penn State (1-1) @ #18 Auburn (2-0)
17-21 // #36 San Diego St (2-0) @ #14 Utah (2-0)
24-26 // #38 Louisiana (2-0) @ #116 Rice (1-1)
31-28 // #125 South Alabama (0-2) @ #43 UCLA (2-0)
14-34 // #48 Colorado (2-0) @ #37 Minnesota (2-0)
34-13 // #108 Ga Southern (1-1) @ #49 UAB (2-0)
21-38 // #50 Florida St (2-0) @ #35 Louisville (1-1)
28-45 // #51 WKU (2-0) @ #86 Indiana (1-1)
28-21 // #8 Pittsburgh (2-0) @ #57 Western Michigan (1-1)
35-46 // #58 Mississippi St (1-1) @ #53 LSU (1-1)
7-63 // #60 UTSA (1-1) @ #31 Texas (1-1)
6-27 // #61 Nevada (3-0) @ #13 Iowa (2-0)
37-27 // #16 Georgia (1-1) @ #62 South Carolina (1-1)
10-24 // #65 Toledo (2-0) @ #1 Ohio St (2-0)
40-10 // #17 Michigan St (2-0) @ #66 Washington (2-0)
21-17 // #23 UCF (2-0) @ #67 FAU (3-0)
17-23 // #73 Tulane (2-0) @ #27 Kansas St (2-0)
24-17 // #55 Air Force (1-1) @ #75 Wyoming (2-1)
24-27 // #76 Fresno St (1-1) @ #40 USC (2-0)
23-29 // #81 Miami(OH) (1-1) @ #9 Cincinnati (2-0)
29-23 // #9 Cincinnati (2-0) @ #81 Miami(OH) (1-1)
33-14 // #46 Purdue (1-1) @ #84 Syracuse (1-1)
10-27 // #85 Liberty (1-1) @ #22 Wake Forest (2-0)
21-51 // #88 Eastern Michigan (1-1) @ #47 Arizona St (1-1)
23-20 // #104 Buffalo (1-1) @ #89 Coastal Carolina (1-1)
37-17 // #19 Ole Miss (2-0) @ #90 Georgia Tech (1-1)
17-20 // #91 UTEP (2-1) @ #114 New Mexico (1-1)
27-32 // #96 Ohio (1-1) @ #34 Iowa St (1-1)
17-40 // #99 Troy (1-1) @ #72 App St (0-2)
31-34 // #101 USF (1-1) @ #56 Florida (0-2)
14-54 // #102 Old Dominion (1-1) @ #44 Virginia (2-0)
24-31 // #109 La Tech (1-1) @ #4 Clemson (2-0)
24-33 // #110 Kansas (1-1) @ #33 Houston (1-1)
0-65 // #112 Colorado St (0-2) @ #69 Washington St (1-1)
10-56 // #113 Vanderbilt (1-2) @ #93 Northern Illinois (1-1)
10-44 // #115 Arkansas St (1-1) @ #39 Memphis (2-0)
21-56 // #117 Texas St (1-1) @ #32 Baylor (1-1)
32-28 // #107 North Texas (1-2) @ #118 UNLV (1-1)
27-24 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #119 Arizona (0-2)
24-43 // #120 La Monroe (1-1) @ #2 Alabama (2-0)
34-37 // #121 Charlotte (1-2) @ #77 Georgia St (1-1)
40-14 // #95 Rutgers (1-1) @ #122 Temple (1-1)
17-20 // #123 California (0-2) @ #6 Notre Dame (1-1)
14-24 // #126 New Mexico St (0-3) @ #12 Wisconsin (2-0)
20-17 // #82 Marshall (1-1) @ #127 Bowling Green (0-2)
7-21 // #128 Akron (0-2) @ #52 Tennessee (1-1)
17-24 // #129 UConn (0-3) @ #7 Michigan (2-0)
30-21 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #130 UMass (0-2)
17-20 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #15 Kentucky (2-0)
10-52 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #70 Missouri (1-1)
24-27 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #71 Arkansas (0-2)
21-41 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #45 Boston College (2-0)
28-35 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #94 Virginia Tech (0-2)
20-24 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #106 Duke (1-1)
7-34 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #83 Northwestern (1-1)
24-27 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #54 West Virginia (1-1)
14-27 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #5 OK State (2-0)
16-26 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #64 Oregon St (1-1)
17-26 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #74 East Carolina (1-1)
13-62 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #41 Tulsa (2-0)
6-21 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #20 Boise St (2-0)
16-23 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #97 Hawaii (1-2)
17-35 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #124 Southern Miss (0-2)
10-60 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #100 Middle Tennessee (1-1)
7-68 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #59 Army (2-1)
28-42 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #111 Kent St (0-2)
20-23 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #63 Central Michigan (1-1)
16-19 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #103 Ball St (0-2)

WEEK: 4
28-59 // #12 Wisconsin (3-0) @ #1 Ohio St (3-0)
20-21 // #14 Oregon (3-0) @ #53 Washington St (2-1)
26-24 // #3 Clemson (3-0) @ #22 Wake Forest (3-0)
13-32 // #25 Kansas St (3-0) @ #8 Oklahoma (2-1)
30-27 // #7 Notre Dame (2-1) @ #26 North Carolina (3-0)
24-17 // #82 TCU (1-1) @ #27 SMU (3-0)
21-31 // #28 Minnesota (3-0) @ #13 Michigan St (3-0)
17-20 // #29 USC (3-0) @ #57 Oregon St (2-1)
10-26 // #31 Tulsa (3-0) @ #19 Ole Miss (3-0)
29-17 // #35 Baylor (2-1) @ #38 Iowa St (2-1)
27-24 // #11 Utah (3-0) @ #39 Arizona St (2-1)
23-17 // #58 Central Michigan (2-1) @ #40 Penn State (1-2)
7-17 // #45 Maryland (2-1) @ #9 Michigan (3-0)
24-26 // #49 Florida (1-2) @ #47 Tennessee (2-1)
17-36 // #50 West Virginia (2-1) @ #95 Virginia Tech (1-2)
41-17 // #18 Texas (2-1) @ #51 Texas Tech (2-1)
30-20 // #70 UCLA (2-1) @ #55 Colorado (2-1)
21-39 // #59 Missouri (2-1) @ #15 Auburn (3-0)
10-61 // #61 Indiana (2-1) @ #10 Cincinnati (3-0)
32-16 // #43 Boston College (3-0) @ #63 Florida St (2-1)
35-7 // #33 Texas A&M (2-1) @ #66 Arkansas (1-2)
7-35 // #66 Arkansas (1-2) @ #33 Texas A&M (2-1)
23-30 // #68 Toledo (2-1) @ #48 San Diego St (2-1)
20-36 // #69 Nevada (3-1) @ #46 Air Force (2-1)
34-38 // #72 Navy (2-1) @ #74 East Carolina (2-1)
27-34 // #77 FAU (3-1) @ #41 Purdue (2-1)
28-21 // #87 Miami(OH) (1-2) @ #78 Northwestern (2-1)
13-20 // #79 Marshall (2-1) @ #104 Troy (1-2)
14-30 // #80 Northern Illinois (2-1) @ #21 Kentucky (3-0)
28-17 // #6 Iowa (3-0) @ #81 Rutgers (2-1)
10-39 // #85 Wyoming (2-2) @ #34 BYU (2-1)
32-31 // #0 FCS (0-4) @ #88 Illinois (1-2)
24-21 // #32 Virginia (3-0) @ #89 Syracuse (1-2)
31-35 // #91 Buffalo (2-1) @ #98 Eastern Michigan (1-2)
13-49 // #92 Middle Tennessee (2-1) @ #16 Miami (3-0)
17-19 // #93 Georgia Tech (1-2) @ #20 UCF (3-0)
28-31 // #94 Stanford (1-1) @ #71 Washington (2-1)
33-10 // #24 Boise St (3-0) @ #97 UTEP (2-2)
14-62 // #100 Rice (2-1) @ #37 Houston (2-1)
21-42 // #101 New Mexico (2-1) @ #44 LSU (2-1)
21-24 // #102 Coastal Carolina (1-2) @ #60 Georgia St (2-1)
7-62 // #103 Ball St (1-2) @ #84 Ga Southern (2-1)
13-38 // #106 USF (1-2) @ #36 Louisville (2-1)
13-27 // #107 Duke (2-1) @ #114 Kansas (1-2)
7-81 // #108 James Madison (1-0) @ #54 App St (1-2)
17-34 // #109 North Texas (2-2) @ #30 Memphis (3-0)
14-38 // #110 Kent St (1-2) @ #17 Georgia (2-1)
31-28 // #113 La Tech (1-2) @ #111 South Alabama (1-2)
43-13 // #62 Western Michigan (1-2) @ #112 San Jose St (1-1)
17-37 // #115 Arkansas St (1-2) @ #105 Old Dominion (1-2)
20-39 // #116 Vanderbilt (1-3) @ #2 Alabama (3-0)
21-19 // #56 Louisiana (2-1) @ #117 La Monroe (1-2)
20-23 // #118 Southern Miss (1-2) @ #83 Tulane (2-1)
7-23 // #120 Charlotte (1-3) @ #65 South Carolina (1-2)
17-33 // #121 UNLV (1-2) @ #64 Utah St (2-1)
24-33 // #125 Arizona (0-3) @ #124 California (0-3)
20-17 // #96 Hawaii (2-2) @ #126 New Mexico St (0-4)
28-31 // #127 Bowling Green (0-3) @ #75 Mississippi St (1-2)
14-39 // #128 Akron (0-3) @ #90 Liberty (1-2)
10-17 // #129 UConn (0-4) @ #42 NC State (2-1)
10-53 // #130 FIU (0-2) @ #73 WKU (2-1)
14-73 // #131 UMass (0-3) @ #122 Temple (1-2)
14-61 // #0 FCS (0-4) @ #5 Pittsburgh (3-0)
10-59 // #0 FCS (0-4) @ #123 Colorado St (0-3)
24-29 // #0 FCS (0-4) @ #67 UTSA (1-2)
13-17 // #0 FCS (0-4) @ #99 Ohio (1-2)
20-31 // #0 FCS (0-4) @ #119 Texas St (1-2)

WEEK: 5
43-7 // #10 Michigan (4-0) @ #12 Iowa (4-0)
29-27 // #37 LSU (3-1) @ #13 Auburn (4-0)
31-34 // #18 Kentucky (4-0) @ #14 Ole Miss (4-0)
49-3 // #7 OK State (3-0) @ #22 Baylor (3-1)
29-14 // #42 San Diego St (3-1) @ #23 Boise St (4-0)
13-28 // #31 Virginia (4-0) @ #109 Duke (2-2)
32-31 // #26 Louisville (3-1) @ #32 Boston College (4-0)
17-20 // #34 Purdue (3-1) @ #41 Minnesota (3-1)
21-28 // #39 NC State (3-1) @ #3 Clemson (4-0)
28-39 // #43 SMU (3-1) @ #19 UCF (4-0)
26-14 // #6 Cincinnati (4-0) @ #44 Tulsa (3-1)
46-20 // #47 Arizona St (2-2) @ #45 USC (3-1)
17-37 // #48 Oregon St (3-1) @ #5 Utah (4-0)
31-33 // #52 Georgia St (3-1) @ #51 Army (3-1)
24-33 // #53 East Carolina (3-1) @ #105 USF (1-3)
9-6 // #11 Michigan St (4-0) @ #55 Maryland (2-2)
23-20 // #9 Oklahoma (3-1) @ #56 TCU (2-1)
21-30 // #58 Utah St (3-1) @ #25 BYU (3-1)
13-18 // #59 Washington (3-1) @ #57 UCLA (3-1)
34-0 // #21 Texas A&M (3-1) @ #66 Mississippi St (2-2)
14-61 // #68 Texas Tech (2-2) @ #35 Kansas St (3-1)
17-34 // #69 West Virginia (2-2) @ #17 Texas (3-1)
21-31 // #70 UTSA (2-2) @ #96 Middle Tennessee (2-2)
36-7 // #16 Georgia (3-1) @ #73 Missouri (2-2)
28-50 // #74 Tulane (3-1) @ #33 Houston (3-1)
17-35 // #75 Virginia Tech (2-2) @ #30 North Carolina (3-1)
48-28 // #29 Wake Forest (3-1) @ #76 Florida St (2-2)
14-38 // #77 Indiana (2-2) @ #20 Nebraska (4-0)
14-56 // #78 Navy (2-2) @ #38 Air Force (3-1)
29-13 // #50 Central Michigan (3-1) @ #81 Toledo (2-2)
7-36 // #82 Rutgers (2-2) @ #1 Ohio St (4-0)
13-20 // #83 Troy (2-2) @ #61 WKU (3-1)
17-35 // #84 Northern Illinois (2-2) @ #115 Ball St (1-3)
10-21 // #86 Northwestern (2-2) @ #64 Penn State (1-3)
31-28 // #2 Alabama (4-0) @ #88 Arkansas (1-3)
46-17 // #85 Liberty (2-2) @ #92 Old Dominion (2-2)
14-69 // #94 Georgia Tech (1-3) @ #4 Pittsburgh (4-0)
14-39 // #97 Stanford (1-2) @ #28 Oregon (3-1)
20-32 // #98 Ohio (2-2) @ #114 Kent St (1-3)
29-28 // #46 Iowa St (2-2) @ #99 Kansas (2-2)
27-20 // #71 Miami(OH) (2-2) @ #103 Buffalo (2-2)
14-54 // #104 New Mexico (2-2) @ #124 UNLV (1-3)
27-14 // #67 UAB (2-1) @ #106 Rice (2-2)
16-14 // #62 Ga Southern (3-1) @ #107 Coastal Carolina (1-3)
46-21 // #80 FAU (3-2) @ #108 North Texas (2-3)
13-16 // #110 Illinois (1-3) @ #27 Wisconsin (3-1)
20-31 // #112 Temple (2-2) @ #24 Memphis (4-0)
27-28 // #116 California (1-3) @ #40 Washington St (3-1)
14-31 // #117 San Jose St (1-2) @ #90 Wyoming (2-3)
21-40 // #119 La Monroe (1-3) @ #121 Arkansas St (1-3)
21-47 // #120 South Alabama (1-3) @ #60 Louisiana (3-1)
38-35 // #100 UTEP (2-3) @ #123 Charlotte (1-4)
21-17 // #72 Colorado (2-2) @ #125 Arizona (0-4)
32-21 // #130 FIU (0-3) @ #126 New Mexico St (0-5)
35-28 // #127 Bowling Green (0-4) @ #128 Akron (0-4)
33-24 // #89 Fresno St (1-2) @ #129 UConn (0-5)
21-24 // #131 UMass (0-4) @ #91 Eastern Michigan (2-2)
17-21 // #0 FCS (0-5) @ #65 Florida (1-3)
21-24 // #0 FCS (0-5) @ #63 South Carolina (2-2)
16-37 // #0 FCS (0-5) @ #93 Syracuse (1-3)
17-37 // #0 FCS (0-5) @ #87 Marshall (2-2)
24-36 // #0 FCS (0-5) @ #54 Western Michigan (2-2)
14-66 // #0 FCS (0-5) @ #49 App St (2-2)

WEEK: 6
20-17 // #17 Texas A&M (4-1) @ #2 Alabama (5-0)
33-17 // #1 Ohio St (5-0) @ #9 Michigan St (5-0)
26-27 // #13 Nebraska (5-0) @ #87 Rutgers (2-3)
19-20 // #18 Texas (4-1) @ #15 Oklahoma (4-1)
20-19 // #15 Oklahoma (4-1) @ #18 Texas (4-1)
17-31 // #19 BYU (4-1) @ #21 Notre Dame (3-1)
31-17 // #21 Notre Dame (3-1) @ #19 BYU (4-1)
35-42 // #23 North Carolina (4-1) @ #11 Miami (4-0)
21-28 // #25 Wisconsin (4-1) @ #94 Northwestern (2-3)
14-24 // #27 Auburn (4-1) @ #16 Georgia (4-1)
13-29 // #28 Kansas St (4-1) @ #47 Iowa St (3-2)
20-17 // #63 South Carolina (3-2) @ #29 Kentucky (4-1)
20-23 // #31 Houston (4-1) @ #14 Memphis (5-0)
17-48 // #36 Washington St (4-1) @ #57 USC (3-2)
16-13 // #84 Fresno St (2-2) @ #38 Boise St (4-1)
24-34 // #39 Tennessee (3-1) @ #30 LSU (4-1)
17-20 // #42 Army (4-1) @ #26 Wake Forest (4-1)
44-23 // #6 Utah (5-0) @ #43 UCLA (4-1)
54-10 // #4 Clemson (5-0) @ #45 Boston College (4-1)
31-14 // #20 Louisville (4-1) @ #49 Virginia (4-1)
41-31 // #46 Purdue (3-2) @ #60 Maryland (2-3)
37-20 // #44 Ga Southern (4-1) @ #62 Georgia St (3-2)
43-20 // #34 Air Force (4-1) @ #67 Utah St (3-2)
24-57 // #68 Washington (3-2) @ #35 Arizona St (3-2)
17-20 // #69 Middle Tennessee (3-2) @ #55 UAB (3-1)
29-28 // #75 Missouri (2-3) @ #70 Florida (2-3)
3-17 // #71 East Carolina (3-2) @ #77 Tulane (3-2)
20-13 // #79 Arkansas (1-4) @ #72 Mississippi St (2-3)
21-34 // #73 Texas Tech (2-3) @ #3 OK State (4-0)
16-27 // #80 Florida St (2-3) @ #50 NC State (3-2)
27-24 // #5 Michigan (5-0) @ #81 Indiana (2-3)
31-28 // #52 WKU (4-1) @ #82 UTSA (2-3)
21-32 // #83 Virginia Tech (2-3) @ #7 Pittsburgh (5-0)
30-23 // #48 Tulsa (3-2) @ #86 Navy (2-3)
31-34 // #88 Eastern Michigan (3-2) @ #54 Western Michigan (3-2)
17-18 // #89 James Madison (2-1) @ #102 Arkansas St (2-3)
10-34 // #90 USF (2-3) @ #8 Cincinnati (5-0)
21-60 // #92 Hawaii (3-2) @ #33 San Diego St (4-1)
24-51 // #95 Duke (3-2) @ #106 Georgia Tech (1-4)
27-32 // #96 UTEP (3-3) @ #104 La Tech (2-2)
20-39 // #98 Kent St (2-3) @ #64 Miami(OH) (3-2)
23-24 // #99 Ball St (2-3) @ #40 Central Michigan (4-1)
27-24 // #91 Toledo (2-3) @ #101 Northern Illinois (2-3)
31-6 // #61 TCU (2-2) @ #103 Kansas (2-3)
34-28 // #56 Oregon St (3-2) @ #107 Stanford (1-3)
14-19 // #111 UNLV (2-3) @ #118 San Jose St (1-3)
56-10 // #24 Iowa (4-1) @ #112 Illinois (1-4)
10-56 // #114 Colorado St (1-3) @ #76 Nevada (3-2)
27-40 // #115 New Mexico (2-3) @ #78 Wyoming (3-3)
22-21 // #10 Ole Miss (5-0) @ #119 Vanderbilt (1-4)
14-17 // #120 Southern Miss (1-3) @ #93 Troy (2-3)
27-20 // #41 App St (3-2) @ #121 Texas St (2-3)
34-21 // #113 Coastal Carolina (1-4) @ #123 La Monroe (1-4)
30-28 // #109 Buffalo (2-3) @ #125 Bowling Green (1-4)
36-20 // #22 Oregon (4-1) @ #126 Arizona (0-5)
17-36 // #129 UConn (0-6) @ #127 FIU (1-3)
17-50 // #130 Akron (0-5) @ #105 Ohio (2-3)
31-21 // #66 Liberty (3-2) @ #131 UMass (0-5)

WEEK: 7
31-17 // #30 Auburn (4-2) @ #13 Ole Miss (6-0)
10-49 // #22 LSU (5-1) @ #82 Florida (2-4)
35-42 // #26 Nebraska (5-1) @ #35 Purdue (4-2)
14-17 // #34 Iowa St (4-2) @ #23 Texas (4-2)
20-21 // #40 USC (4-2) @ #4 Utah (6-0)
14-10 // #90 Mississippi St (2-4) @ #43 Kentucky (4-2)
39-17 // #53 Washington St (4-2) @ #46 Oregon St (4-2)
20-27 // #48 Wisconsin (4-2) @ #20 Michigan St (5-1)
41-21 // #12 Alabama (5-1) @ #51 Tennessee (3-2)
51-20 // #3 OK State (5-0) @ #57 TCU (3-2)
21-24 // #59 Louisiana (4-1) @ #77 Marshall (3-2)
17-29 // #60 Penn State (2-3) @ #8 Michigan (6-0)
28-47 // #67 Nevada (4-2) @ #99 Hawaii (3-3)
26-31 // #71 Arkansas (2-4) @ #28 BYU (4-2)
46-31 // #32 Baylor (3-2) @ #80 West Virginia (2-3)
32-31 // #14 Memphis (6-0) @ #83 East Carolina (3-3)
30-21 // #45 WKU (5-1) @ #84 Middle Tennessee (3-3)
31-34 // #85 La Tech (3-2) @ #111 North Texas (2-4)
17-31 // #86 Arkansas St (3-3) @ #122 Southern Miss (1-4)
23-21 // #72 Maryland (2-4) @ #88 Indiana (2-4)
36-14 // #2 Clemson (6-0) @ #89 Florida St (2-4)
39-17 // #6 Miami (5-0) @ #91 Virginia Tech (2-4)
14-28 // #92 Navy (2-4) @ #54 SMU (3-2)
27-24 // #68 Tulane (4-2) @ #93 USF (2-4)
10-50 // #95 James Madison (2-2) @ #37 Ga Southern (5-1)
10-34 // #96 Ohio (3-3) @ #47 Western Michigan (4-2)
22-19 // #42 NC State (4-2) @ #98 Syracuse (2-3)
48-28 // #29 North Carolina (4-2) @ #100 Duke (3-3)
28-30 // #101 Old Dominion (2-3) @ #105 Coastal Carolina (2-4)
20-23 // #106 Kent St (2-4) @ #75 Toledo (3-3)
24-31 // #107 Rice (2-3) @ #62 FAU (4-2)
0-35 // #108 Kansas (2-4) @ #11 Oklahoma (5-1)
14-38 // #109 Northern Illinois (2-4) @ #94 Eastern Michigan (3-3)
14-47 // #110 San Jose St (2-3) @ #66 Fresno St (3-2)
14-67 // #112 Temple (2-3) @ #15 UCF (5-0)
23-26 // #113 Texas St (2-4) @ #76 Troy (3-3)
44-24 // #27 Air Force (5-1) @ #114 UNLV (2-4)
10-45 // #115 Stanford (1-4) @ #7 Notre Dame (4-1)
48-21 // #31 Minnesota (4-1) @ #117 Illinois (1-5)
28-31 // #118 California (1-4) @ #61 Colorado (3-2)
7-67 // #120 Vanderbilt (1-5) @ #16 Georgia (5-1)
41-17 // #78 Utah St (3-3) @ #121 Colorado St (1-4)
23-26 // #123 La Monroe (1-5) @ #119 South Alabama (1-4)
14-36 // #124 Charlotte (1-5) @ #44 UAB (4-1)
50-6 // #97 UTSA (2-4) @ #125 FIU (2-3)
39-3 // #56 Miami(OH) (4-2) @ #126 Bowling Green (1-5)
17-36 // #127 Arizona (0-6) @ #79 Washington (3-3)
50-20 // #116 New Mexico (2-4) @ #128 New Mexico St (0-6)
63-14 // #33 Central Michigan (5-1) @ #129 Akron (0-6)
28-32 // #130 UConn (0-7) @ #102 Ball St (2-4)
18-17 // #103 Buffalo (3-3) @ #131 UMass (0-6)
20-35 // #0 FCS (0-7) @ #58 Army (4-2)
14-26 // #0 FCS (0-7) @ #69 Liberty (4-2)

WEEK: 8
23-16 // #19 Texas (5-2) @ #3 OK State (6-0)
28-30 // #16 Memphis (7-0) @ #56 Tulane (5-2)
17-14 // #7 Pittsburgh (6-0) @ #17 Louisville (5-1)
10-52 // #20 Iowa (5-1) @ #1 Ohio St (6-0)
10-20 // #22 Ole Miss (6-1) @ #38 LSU (5-2)
30-32 // #29 Minnesota (5-1) @ #71 Penn State (2-4)
14-40 // #41 UAB (5-1) @ #36 WKU (6-1)
34-17 // #9 Cincinnati (6-0) @ #45 SMU (4-2)
10-24 // #48 Boston College (4-2) @ #18 Wake Forest (5-1)
17-10 // #11 Texas A&M (5-1) @ #49 South Carolina (4-2)
20-33 // #50 Boise St (4-2) @ #28 Air Force (6-1)
31-32 // #51 Colorado (4-2) @ #60 Oregon St (4-3)
34-27 // #40 Western Michigan (5-2) @ #52 Miami(OH) (5-2)
24-27 // #53 FAU (5-2) @ #102 UTEP (3-4)
20-28 // #55 UCLA (4-2) @ #23 Oregon (5-1)
31-21 // #31 Purdue (5-2) @ #57 Wisconsin (4-3)
20-10 // #37 Kansas St (4-2) @ #63 TCU (3-3)
27-30 // #65 Virginia (4-2) @ #87 Georgia Tech (2-4)
32-31 // #24 BYU (5-2) @ #66 Liberty (5-2)
30-20 // #92 Indiana (2-5) @ #70 Rutgers (3-3)
17-32 // #72 Georgia St (3-3) @ #35 App St (4-2)
20-27 // #76 Washington (4-3) @ #121 California (1-5)
21-24 // #78 Mississippi St (3-4) @ #12 Alabama (6-1)
14-26 // #79 Northwestern (3-3) @ #68 Maryland (3-4)
31-10 // #75 Utah St (4-3) @ #80 Wyoming (4-3)
28-39 // #81 Eastern Michigan (4-3) @ #98 Ball St (3-4)
39-13 // #26 San Diego St (5-1) @ #83 Nevada (4-3)
24-21 // #8 UCF (6-0) @ #85 East Carolina (3-4)
23-20 // #90 West Virginia (2-4) @ #88 Texas Tech (2-4)
30-24 // #39 Houston (4-2) @ #96 Navy (2-5)
14-61 // #97 Syracuse (2-4) @ #2 Clemson (7-0)
7-57 // #99 North Texas (3-4) @ #84 UTSA (3-4)
30-27 // #108 Rice (2-4) @ #100 La Tech (3-3)
35-28 // #73 Toledo (4-3) @ #101 Buffalo (4-3)
28-37 // #103 Duke (3-4) @ #5 Miami (6-0)
38-14 // #115 Northern Illinois (2-5) @ #104 Ohio (3-4)
20-17 // #30 Ga Southern (6-1) @ #106 Old Dominion (2-4)
23-24 // #107 Arkansas St (3-4) @ #67 Louisiana (4-2)
21-17 // #61 Fresno St (4-2) @ #110 New Mexico (3-4)
23-20 // #74 Troy (4-3) @ #111 South Alabama (2-4)
17-39 // #112 Kansas (2-5) @ #33 Baylor (4-2)
30-20 // #27 Arizona St (4-2) @ #113 Stanford (1-5)
58-14 // #44 Tulsa (4-2) @ #116 Temple (2-4)
31-28 // #105 Southern Miss (2-4) @ #117 Texas St (2-5)
21-24 // #118 UNLV (2-5) @ #10 Notre Dame (5-1)
7-37 // #120 Vanderbilt (1-6) @ #64 Missouri (3-3)
27-24 // #82 Hawaii (4-3) @ #122 Colorado St (1-5)
17-24 // #124 La Monroe (1-6) @ #54 Army (5-2)
3-49 // #125 FIU (2-4) @ #123 Charlotte (1-6)
10-29 // #126 Bowling Green (1-6) @ #32 Central Michigan (6-1)
31-28 // #114 San Jose St (2-4) @ #128 New Mexico St (0-7)
0-70 // #129 Akron (0-7) @ #109 Kent St (2-5)
21-28 // #0 FCS (0-8) @ #58 Tennessee (3-3)

WEEK: 9
26-3 // #6 Cincinnati (7-0) @ #7 UCF (7-0)
30-27 // #31 Ole Miss (6-2) @ #8 Texas A&M (6-1)
17-54 // #14 Michigan St (6-1) @ #10 Michigan (7-0)
20-21 // #17 Wake Forest (6-1) @ #24 Louisville (5-2)
39-17 // #4 Pittsburgh (7-0) @ #25 North Carolina (5-2)
44-14 // #12 OK State (6-1) @ #36 Kansas St (5-2)
33-24 // #5 Utah (7-0) @ #45 Washington St (5-2)
24-31 // #48 UAB (5-2) @ #68 FAU (5-3)
47-7 // #19 San Diego St (6-1) @ #50 Fresno St (5-2)
23-20 // #13 Oklahoma (6-1) @ #51 Iowa St (4-3)
21-28 // #52 SMU (4-3) @ #41 Tulsa (5-2)
50-17 // #1 Ohio St (7-0) @ #55 Penn State (3-4)
24-31 // #57 Missouri (4-3) @ #54 South Carolina (4-3)
21-23 // #61 Kentucky (4-3) @ #56 Tennessee (4-3)
46-28 // #27 Arizona St (5-2) @ #67 Colorado (4-3)
44-21 // #15 Georgia (6-1) @ #69 Florida (3-4)
21-44 // #69 Florida (3-4) @ #15 Georgia (6-1)
7-29 // #72 Georgia Tech (3-4) @ #92 Florida St (2-5)
27-24 // #108 Old Dominion (2-5) @ #73 Georgia St (3-4)
13-45 // #74 TCU (3-4) @ #81 West Virginia (3-4)
10-48 // #75 Arkansas (2-5) @ #23 Auburn (5-2)
33-17 // #84 Wyoming (4-4) @ #76 Hawaii (5-3)
48-10 // #3 Miami (7-0) @ #78 Virginia (4-3)
21-44 // #82 Rutgers (3-4) @ #43 Minnesota (5-2)
28-35 // #85 Northwestern (3-4) @ #32 Iowa (5-2)
13-20 // #86 Middle Tennessee (3-4) @ #88 UTEP (4-4)
32-31 // #60 Toledo (5-3) @ #89 Eastern Michigan (4-4)
28-30 // #90 Nevada (4-4) @ #110 San Jose St (3-4)
20-27 // #91 East Carolina (3-5) @ #22 BYU (6-2)
41-17 // #35 Baylor (5-2) @ #93 Texas Tech (2-5)
20-45 // #94 USF (2-5) @ #39 Houston (5-2)
14-29 // #96 Virginia Tech (2-5) @ #46 NC State (5-2)
10-30 // #98 Coastal Carolina (3-4) @ #47 Marshall (5-2)
27-24 // #65 Louisiana (5-2) @ #99 Southern Miss (3-4)
28-21 // #9 Notre Dame (6-1) @ #103 Syracuse (2-5)
24-40 // #106 North Texas (3-5) @ #28 WKU (7-1)
26-17 // #115 South Alabama (2-5) @ #109 Arkansas St (3-5)
43-14 // #18 Oregon (6-1) @ #112 California (2-5)
21-24 // #116 Stanford (1-6) @ #66 UCLA (4-3)
7-51 // #117 Temple (2-5) @ #102 Navy (2-6)
13-49 // #119 Charlotte (2-6) @ #97 Rice (3-4)
21-65 // #121 Illinois (1-6) @ #38 Nebraska (5-2)
20-27 // #123 Colorado St (1-6) @ #58 Boise St (4-3)
56-17 // #107 La Tech (3-4) @ #125 FIU (2-5)
46-14 // #44 USC (4-3) @ #127 Arizona (0-7)
45-14 // #59 Boston College (4-3) @ #129 UConn (0-8)
23-7 // #128 New Mexico St (0-8) @ #130 UMass (0-7)
59-10 // #64 Miami(OH) (5-3) @ #131 Akron (0-8)
14-53 // #0 FCS (0-9) @ #34 App St (5-2)

WEEK: 10
21-38 // #4 Clemson (8-0) @ #9 Notre Dame (7-1)
20-30 // #13 Texas (6-2) @ #42 Kansas St (5-3)
14-28 // #16 Oregon (7-1) @ #68 Colorado (4-4)
20-3 // #14 UCF (7-1) @ #25 Memphis (7-1)
21-45 // #29 Baylor (6-2) @ #10 Oklahoma (7-1)
16-20 // #31 Iowa (6-2) @ #30 Purdue (6-2)
23-20 // #40 Minnesota (6-2) @ #32 Nebraska (6-2)
36-17 // #12 Alabama (7-1) @ #35 LSU (6-2)
17-20 // #36 North Carolina (5-3) @ #83 Virginia (4-4)
31-32 // #37 App St (6-2) @ #104 Coastal Carolina (3-5)
21-36 // #38 Houston (6-2) @ #63 SMU (4-4)
46-28 // #27 Wake Forest (6-2) @ #41 NC State (6-2)
31-33 // #43 Tulane (6-2) @ #34 Tulsa (6-2)
13-42 // #46 Army (6-2) @ #23 Air Force (7-1)
42-13 // #23 Air Force (7-1) @ #46 Army (6-2)
17-64 // #47 Tennessee (5-3) @ #11 Georgia (7-1)
28-31 // #49 Washington St (5-3) @ #117 Stanford (1-7)
28-24 // #19 BYU (7-2) @ #51 Boise St (5-3)
14-50 // #55 UCLA (5-3) @ #22 Arizona St (6-2)
20-32 // #57 Oregon St (5-3) @ #84 Washington (4-4)
21-55 // #59 Troy (5-3) @ #54 Louisiana (6-2)
68-14 // #70 UTSA (4-4) @ #62 UAB (5-3)
14-48 // #66 West Virginia (4-4) @ #58 Iowa St (4-4)
30-32 // #69 Kentucky (4-4) @ #67 Missouri (4-4)
13-26 // #71 Liberty (5-3) @ #86 Arkansas (2-6)
29-24 // #60 Maryland (4-4) @ #73 Wisconsin (4-4)
14-37 // #74 Florida (3-5) @ #15 Texas A&M (6-2)
21-28 // #76 Florida St (3-5) @ #6 Miami (8-0)
29-20 // #65 Penn State (3-5) @ #77 Indiana (3-5)
43-21 // #20 Auburn (6-2) @ #78 Mississippi St (3-5)
24-57 // #79 Ball St (4-4) @ #100 Kent St (3-5)
35-23 // #75 UTEP (5-4) @ #80 Rice (4-4)
23-32 // #81 Hawaii (5-4) @ #64 Fresno St (5-3)
17-20 // #82 Georgia Tech (3-5) @ #102 Virginia Tech (2-6)
17-27 // #87 Navy (3-6) @ #5 Cincinnati (8-0)
26-24 // #7 Michigan (8-0) @ #88 Rutgers (3-5)
58-3 // #1 Ohio St (8-0) @ #90 Northwestern (3-5)
7-31 // #91 James Madison (2-4) @ #18 Louisville (6-2)
14-34 // #93 Texas Tech (2-6) @ #89 TCU (3-5)
17-33 // #95 Middle Tennessee (3-5) @ #96 La Tech (4-4)
24-17 // #45 Marshall (6-2) @ #99 Old Dominion (3-5)
52-21 // #85 Georgia St (3-5) @ #103 Southern Miss (3-5)
21-23 // #105 Syracuse (2-6) @ #3 Pittsburgh (8-0)
24-37 // #106 Buffalo (4-4) @ #112 Ohio (3-5)
17-45 // #107 South Alabama (3-5) @ #24 Ga Southern (7-1)
61-24 // #33 Central Michigan (7-1) @ #109 Northern Illinois (3-5)
14-35 // #110 Duke (3-5) @ #52 Boston College (5-3)
7-39 // #111 New Mexico (3-5) @ #61 Utah St (5-3)
32-21 // #8 OK State (7-1) @ #114 Kansas (2-6)
21-58 // #115 UNLV (2-6) @ #17 San Diego St (7-1)
31-32 // #116 California (2-6) @ #44 USC (5-3)
10-35 // #118 Texas St (2-6) @ #124 La Monroe (1-7)
34-24 // #28 WKU (8-1) @ #119 Charlotte (2-7)
26-24 // #98 USF (2-6) @ #120 Temple (2-6)
29-14 // #48 South Carolina (5-3) @ #121 Vanderbilt (1-7)
33-21 // #26 Michigan St (6-2) @ #122 Illinois (1-7)
21-37 // #123 Colorado St (1-7) @ #94 San Jose St (4-4)
14-7 // #39 Western Michigan (6-2) @ #125 Bowling Green (1-7)
21-32 // #126 FIU (2-6) @ #108 North Texas (3-6)
20-29 // #128 Arizona (0-8) @ #2 Utah (8-0)
24-27 // #131 UMass (0-8) @ #129 UConn (0-9)

WEEK: 11
32-31 // #85 Indiana (3-6) @ #1 Ohio St (9-0)
17-32 // #16 Louisville (7-2) @ #10 Clemson (8-1)
20-17 // #15 Texas A&M (7-2) @ #17 Auburn (7-2)
21-44 // #22 Ga Southern (8-1) @ #50 Louisiana (7-2)
28-24 // #11 Alabama (8-1) @ #28 Ole Miss (7-2)
20-23 // #29 Tulsa (7-2) @ #34 Memphis (7-2)
14-22 // #32 Kansas St (6-3) @ #36 Baylor (6-3)
21-34 // #37 Nebraska (6-3) @ #7 Michigan (9-0)
38-7 // #49 App St (6-3) @ #38 Marshall (7-2)
24-32 // #40 LSU (6-3) @ #68 Arkansas (3-6)
17-20 // #41 North Carolina (5-4) @ #23 Wake Forest (7-2)
24-49 // #42 South Carolina (6-3) @ #79 Florida (3-6)
17-20 // #46 Iowa St (5-4) @ #9 OK State (8-1)
33-17 // #12 UCF (8-1) @ #47 Tulane (6-3)
24-20 // #44 Boston College (6-3) @ #51 NC State (6-3)
17-30 // #52 Utah St (6-3) @ #88 Hawaii (5-5)
34-14 // #57 Maryland (5-4) @ #55 Penn State (4-5)
14-17 // #56 Colorado (5-4) @ #39 USC (6-3)
17-44 // #58 Missouri (5-4) @ #62 Tennessee (5-4)
13-23 // #59 Fresno St (6-3) @ #116 UNLV (2-7)
15-14 // #101 Ohio (4-5) @ #60 Miami(OH) (6-3)
27-29 // #64 Oregon St (5-4) @ #117 California (2-7)
31-24 // #21 Arizona St (7-2) @ #67 Washington St (5-4)
32-21 // #54 Army (6-3) @ #69 Troy (5-4)
42-20 // #4 Pittsburgh (9-0) @ #71 Virginia (5-4)
10-51 // #72 Washington (5-4) @ #30 Oregon (7-2)
7-57 // #73 TCU (4-5) @ #24 Texas (6-3)
42-21 // #8 Oklahoma (8-1) @ #76 West Virginia (4-5)
28-48 // #78 Florida St (3-6) @ #105 Syracuse (2-7)
21-24 // #80 La Tech (5-4) @ #61 UTSA (5-4)
28-50 // #81 Wisconsin (4-5) @ #35 Iowa (6-3)
24-21 // #13 Georgia (8-1) @ #84 Mississippi St (3-6)
17-21 // #86 Rutgers (3-6) @ #20 Michigan St (7-2)
7-63 // #87 San Jose St (5-4) @ #14 San Diego St (8-1)
7-50 // #89 Rice (4-5) @ #27 WKU (9-1)
59-7 // #5 Miami (9-0) @ #90 Georgia Tech (3-6)
14-27 // #91 Navy (3-7) @ #6 Notre Dame (8-1)
27-14 // #6 Notre Dame (8-1) @ #91 Navy (3-7)
20-23 // #92 James Madison (2-5) @ #103 Old Dominion (3-6)
38-17 // #45 SMU (5-4) @ #95 USF (3-6)
14-58 // #96 Ball St (4-5) @ #48 Toledo (6-3)
14-19 // #98 Northwestern (3-6) @ #31 Minnesota (7-2)
21-37 // #99 East Carolina (3-6) @ #3 Cincinnati (9-0)
24-17 // #75 UAB (5-4) @ #100 North Texas (4-6)
23-10 // #63 Boise St (5-4) @ #102 Nevada (4-5)
21-49 // #106 Stanford (2-7) @ #2 Utah (9-0)
14-30 // #108 Northern Illinois (3-6) @ #33 Western Michigan (7-2)
17-23 // #109 Southern Miss (3-6) @ #82 Coastal Carolina (4-5)
7-43 // #110 Buffalo (4-5) @ #26 Central Michigan (8-1)
28-42 // #112 Kansas (2-7) @ #111 Texas Tech (2-7)
42-21 // #94 Virginia Tech (3-6) @ #113 Duke (3-6)
19-28 // #114 New Mexico (3-6) @ #18 Air Force (8-1)
7-41 // #118 La Monroe (2-7) @ #74 Georgia St (4-5)
21-28 // #119 Charlotte (2-8) @ #104 Middle Tennessee (3-6)
14-35 // #120 Temple (2-7) @ #43 Houston (6-3)
28-31 // #121 Texas St (2-7) @ #107 South Alabama (3-6)
17-27 // #122 Vanderbilt (1-8) @ #77 Kentucky (4-5)
30-28 // #25 Purdue (7-2) @ #123 Illinois (1-8)
48-17 // #70 Wyoming (5-4) @ #124 Colorado St (1-8)
55-24 // #83 Kent St (4-5) @ #125 Bowling Green (1-8)
46-7 // #53 FAU (6-3) @ #126 FIU (2-7)
19-24 // #128 Arizona (0-9) @ #65 UCLA (5-4)
56-21 // #93 Liberty (5-4) @ #129 UConn (1-9)
38-12 // #97 Eastern Michigan (4-5) @ #130 Akron (0-9)
14-63 // #131 UMass (0-9) @ #115 Arkansas St (3-6)
14-15 // #0 FCS (0-11) @ #127 New Mexico St (1-8)

WEEK: 12
10-29 // #1 Utah (10-0) @ #27 Oregon (8-2)
14-21 // #5 Miami (10-0) @ #8 Clemson (9-1)
24-39 // #7 OK State (9-1) @ #10 Oklahoma (9-1)
16-14 // #75 Oregon St (5-5) @ #16 Arizona St (8-2)
27-24 // #57 NC State (6-4) @ #22 Louisville (7-3)
24-13 // #32 Western Michigan (8-2) @ #23 Central Michigan (9-1)
24-17 // #106 Northwestern (3-7) @ #24 Purdue (8-2)
27-30 // #26 WKU (10-1) @ #25 Auburn (7-3)
28-27 // #0 FCS (0-12) @ #28 Memphis (8-2)
24-28 // #35 Iowa (7-3) @ #31 Minnesota (8-2)
14-28 // #38 Boston College (7-3) @ #6 Notre Dame (9-1)
37-28 // #92 Wisconsin (4-6) @ #41 Nebraska (6-4)
39-10 // #9 Ohio St (9-1) @ #47 Maryland (6-4)
10-30 // #48 Marshall (7-3) @ #29 Ga Southern (8-2)
26-23 // #102 Texas Tech (3-7) @ #53 Iowa St (5-5)
31-34 // #54 Boise St (6-4) @ #64 Wyoming (6-4)
17-10 // #43 SMU (6-4) @ #55 Tulane (6-4)
10-7 // #51 Tennessee (6-4) @ #56 South Carolina (6-4)
23-20 // #36 USC (7-3) @ #58 UCLA (6-4)
46-17 // #33 Ole Miss (7-3) @ #61 Arkansas (4-6)
21-24 // #62 UAB (6-4) @ #50 LSU (6-4)
27-24 // #93 San Jose St (5-5) @ #63 Utah St (6-4)
16-28 // #68 Indiana (4-6) @ #20 Michigan St (8-2)
14-15 // #70 Fresno St (6-4) @ #110 Nevada (4-6)
14-41 // #74 Liberty (6-4) @ #85 Virginia Tech (4-6)
21-10 // #78 Coastal Carolina (5-5) @ #76 Virginia (5-5)
39-24 // #13 Georgia (9-1) @ #79 Kentucky (5-5)
27-24 // #59 Colorado (5-5) @ #80 Washington (5-5)
18-17 // #37 Kansas St (6-4) @ #82 West Virginia (4-6)
14-34 // #83 TCU (4-6) @ #30 Baylor (7-3)
21-27 // #84 Old Dominion (4-6) @ #39 App St (7-3)
20-34 // #86 Ohio (5-5) @ #100 Ball St (4-6)
17-57 // #88 Syracuse (3-7) @ #18 Wake Forest (8-2)
54-17 // #52 UTSA (6-4) @ #89 Rice (4-6)
23-20 // #40 Louisiana (8-2) @ #90 Florida St (3-7)
35-28 // #60 Penn State (4-6) @ #91 Rutgers (3-7)
10-17 // #95 Eastern Michigan (5-5) @ #81 Kent St (5-5)
26-23 // #46 FAU (7-3) @ #96 Middle Tennessee (4-6)
27-28 // #97 Navy (3-8) @ #12 UCF (9-1)
24-41 // #98 Georgia Tech (3-7) @ #49 North Carolina (5-5)
41-17 // #44 Houston (7-3) @ #99 East Carolina (3-7)
14-59 // #101 USF (3-7) @ #34 Tulsa (7-3)
13-24 // #104 South Alabama (4-6) @ #115 Southern Miss (3-7)
20-27 // #105 Arkansas St (4-6) @ #122 Texas St (2-8)
6-24 // #109 UNLV (3-7) @ #77 Hawaii (6-5)
24-27 // #111 Stanford (2-8) @ #107 California (3-7)
34-21 // #71 Miami(OH) (6-4) @ #113 Northern Illinois (3-7)
35-19 // #14 San Diego St (9-1) @ #114 New Mexico (3-7)
24-39 // #116 Duke (3-7) @ #3 Pittsburgh (10-0)
33-28 // #21 Texas (7-3) @ #117 Kansas (2-8)
27-29 // #118 La Monroe (2-8) @ #72 Troy (5-5)
23-20 // #94 La Tech (5-5) @ #119 Charlotte (2-9)
21-26 // #120 Illinois (1-9) @ #4 Michigan (10-0)
35-21 // #2 Cincinnati (10-0) @ #121 Temple (2-8)
45-14 // #69 Florida (4-6) @ #123 Vanderbilt (1-9)
10-30 // #124 Colorado St (1-9) @ #17 Air Force (9-1)
21-42 // #125 FIU (2-8) @ #65 UTEP (6-4)
17-37 // #126 New Mexico St (2-8) @ #67 Missouri (5-5)
6-16 // #127 Bowling Green (1-9) @ #42 Toledo (7-3)
37-21 // #73 Washington St (5-5) @ #128 Arizona (0-10)
10-56 // #129 UConn (1-10) @ #45 Army (7-3)
21-46 // #130 Akron (0-10) @ #112 Buffalo (4-6)
14-44 // #131 UMass (0-10) @ #15 Texas A&M (8-2)
21-58 // #0 FCS (0-12) @ #11 Alabama (9-1)
17-18 // #0 FCS (0-12) @ #87 Mississippi St (3-7)
10-24 // #0 FCS (0-12) @ #19 BYU (8-2)

WEEK: 13
28-41 // #1 Pittsburgh (11-0) @ #10 Miami (10-1)
21-23 // #5 Michigan (11-0) @ #7 Ohio St (10-1)
47-14 // #16 Air Force (10-1) @ #13 San Diego St (10-1)
24-41 // #17 Michigan St (9-2) @ #57 Penn State (5-6)
23-30 // #21 Auburn (8-3) @ #8 Alabama (10-1)
33-24 // #28 Baylor (8-3) @ #22 Texas (8-3)
17-18 // #31 Tulsa (8-3) @ #44 Houston (8-3)
32-28 // #4 Notre Dame (10-1) @ #33 USC (8-3)
17-52 // #34 App St (8-3) @ #24 Ga Southern (9-2)
16-17 // #38 Tennessee (7-4) @ #123 Vanderbilt (1-10)
17-22 // #40 Toledo (8-3) @ #23 Western Michigan (9-2)
32-27 // #49 NC State (7-4) @ #42 North Carolina (6-5)
14-41 // #43 Memphis (8-3) @ #39 SMU (7-4)
49-17 // #30 WKU (10-2) @ #45 FAU (8-3)
27-24 // #54 Nebraska (6-5) @ #46 Iowa (7-4)
14-40 // #48 LSU (7-4) @ #14 Texas A&M (9-2)
35-31 // #56 Georgia St (6-5) @ #52 Marshall (7-4)
26-21 // #9 Utah (10-1) @ #53 Colorado (6-5)
24-31 // #55 Wyoming (7-4) @ #80 Fresno St (6-5)
32-27 // #19 Oregon (9-2) @ #58 Oregon St (6-5)
17-30 // #59 Tulane (6-5) @ #3 Cincinnati (11-0)
28-29 // #61 South Carolina (6-5) @ #2 Clemson (10-1)
27-24 // #75 Arkansas (4-7) @ #62 Missouri (6-5)
14-24 // #65 UTEP (7-4) @ #50 UTSA (7-4)
10-53 // #70 Hawaii (7-5) @ #78 San Jose St (6-5)
28-31 // #71 Kent St (6-5) @ #110 Buffalo (5-6)
10-31 // #72 UAB (6-5) @ #82 La Tech (6-5)
37-24 // #35 Purdue (8-3) @ #76 Indiana (4-7)
21-20 // #25 Minnesota (9-2) @ #77 Wisconsin (5-6)
31-43 // #79 Utah St (6-5) @ #60 Boise St (6-5)
34-17 // #27 Louisville (7-4) @ #81 Kentucky (5-6)
21-31 // #84 Washington (5-6) @ #68 Washington St (6-5)
10-43 // #86 West Virginia (4-7) @ #15 OK State (9-2)
40-7 // #64 Iowa St (5-6) @ #87 TCU (4-7)
27-29 // #88 Ball St (5-6) @ #66 Miami(OH) (7-4)
21-23 // #89 Virginia (5-6) @ #74 Virginia Tech (5-6)
17-14 // #6 Oklahoma (10-1) @ #90 Texas Tech (4-7)
14-47 // #91 Mississippi St (4-7) @ #26 Ole Miss (8-3)
14-26 // #92 Old Dominion (4-7) @ #109 South Alabama (4-7)
38-17 // #69 Florida (5-6) @ #94 Florida St (3-8)
21-20 // #32 Central Michigan (9-2) @ #98 Eastern Michigan (5-6)
20-36 // #100 Rutgers (3-8) @ #51 Maryland (6-5)
14-56 // #101 Georgia Tech (3-8) @ #12 Georgia (10-1)
20-37 // #102 Syracuse (3-8) @ #47 Boston College (7-4)
24-17 // #73 UCLA (6-5) @ #103 California (4-7)
27-24 // #93 Rice (4-7) @ #104 North Texas (4-7)
31-24 // #11 UCF (10-1) @ #105 USF (3-8)
7-8 // #106 East Carolina (3-8) @ #122 Temple (2-9)
31-35 // #107 Southern Miss (4-7) @ #118 La Monroe (2-9)
31-28 // #63 Troy (6-5) @ #111 Arkansas St (4-7)
27-24 // #96 Nevada (5-6) @ #112 UNLV (3-8)
38-35 // #20 BYU (9-2) @ #113 Stanford (2-9)
16-17 // #114 New Mexico (3-8) @ #124 Colorado St (1-10)
73-10 // #18 Wake Forest (9-2) @ #116 Duke (3-8)
27-47 // #117 Kansas (2-9) @ #37 Kansas St (7-4)
30-17 // #36 Louisiana (9-2) @ #119 Texas St (3-8)
24-28 // #121 Illinois (1-10) @ #85 Northwestern (4-7)
31-28 // #99 Middle Tennessee (4-7) @ #125 FIU (2-9)
7-47 // #126 New Mexico St (2-9) @ #83 Liberty (6-5)
24-35 // #127 Bowling Green (1-10) @ #97 Ohio (5-6)
54-7 // #29 Arizona St (8-3) @ #129 Arizona (0-11)
23-26 // #130 Akron (0-11) @ #115 Northern Illinois (3-8)
19-10 // #41 Army (8-3) @ #131 UMass (0-11)
04-12-2022 11:52 AM
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e-parade Offline
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Post: #3
RE: '22 Season End Simulations
There won't be a ton of them, but I don't believe we're going to see a UMass team with 0 wins next year. I mean I get why the sim is suggesting that based on recent history, but with Don Brown we have the most competent and capable coach since...Don Brown.
04-12-2022 12:32 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #4
RE: '22 Season End Simulations
(04-12-2022 12:32 PM)e-parade Wrote:  There won't be a ton of them, but I don't believe we're going to see a UMass team with 0 wins next year. I mean I get why the sim is suggesting that based on recent history, but with Don Brown we have the most competent and capable coach since...Don Brown.

Right, UMass hasn't had a win of consequence in 5 years. I've got 1-11 as their most likely finish with 0 "likely" wins on their schedule. NMSU is the lone "toss up." If Brown can keep the Minutemen to within 10 in the season opener, they'll exceed expectations and the computer will see multiple wins as a larger possibility. Still, with Brown there is certainly reason to be optimistic, whatever that translates to as a UMass fan, haha.
04-12-2022 01:07 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #5
RE: '22 Season End Simulations
That’s fascinating. I have a hard time believing the SEC-loving committee would but 11-1 Alabama at #8, TAMU at #10, and Georgia at #12.

There’s special unwritten rules that ensure ESPN’s golden child always has a team in the top 4.
04-12-2022 01:14 PM
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ArmoredUpKnight Offline
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Post: #6
RE: '22 Season End Simulations
I'm surprised to see Cincy at the top. Lots of talent players heading to the NFL. Key losses: QB Desmond Ridder, CB Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner, RB Jerome Ford, DE Myjai Sanders, and WR Alec Pierce.

I would think the top of the AAC would be:
1. Houston
2. UCF
3. ECU
4. Cincy

Its not uncommon for UCF to be favored in most models. The undefeated streak tends to skew models. So Cincy and UCF having recent undefeated regular seasons outweighs the progress teams like Houston and ECU have made.
04-12-2022 01:18 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #7
RE: '22 Season End Simulations
(04-12-2022 01:18 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  I'm surprised to see Cincy at the top. Lots of talent players heading to the NFL. Key losses: QB Desmond Ridder, CB Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner, RB Jerome Ford, DE Myjai Sanders, and WR Alec Pierce.

I would think the top of the AAC would be:
1. Houston
2. UCF
3. ECU
4. Cincy

Its not uncommon for UCF to be favored in most models. The undefeated streak tends to skew models. So Cincy and UCF having recent undefeated regular seasons outweighs the progress teams like Houston and ECU have made.

ECU had their first winning season in 7 years, not enough info to indicate a trend. Off field progress (or regress, as will likely be the case for Cincinnati) is more difficult to quantify. I use a regression toward mean to simulate these, but could benefit from more team-specific data

This model has
1a. Cincy (72% make the CCG)
1b. Houston (70%)
3. UCF (25%)
4. SMU (12%)
04-12-2022 01:39 PM
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e-parade Offline
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Post: #8
RE: '22 Season End Simulations
(04-12-2022 01:07 PM)Crayton Wrote:  
(04-12-2022 12:32 PM)e-parade Wrote:  There won't be a ton of them, but I don't believe we're going to see a UMass team with 0 wins next year. I mean I get why the sim is suggesting that based on recent history, but with Don Brown we have the most competent and capable coach since...Don Brown.

Right, UMass hasn't had a win of consequence in 5 years. I've got 1-11 as their most likely finish with 0 "likely" wins on their schedule. NMSU is the lone "toss up." If Brown can keep the Minutemen to within 10 in the season opener, they'll exceed expectations and the computer will see multiple wins as a larger possibility. Still, with Brown there is certainly reason to be optimistic, whatever that translates to as a UMass fan, haha.

As a starter: It would translate to disappearing from the Bottom 10 and Bottom 10 watchlist

We have high hopes.
04-12-2022 01:41 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #9
RE: '22 Season End Simulations
(04-12-2022 01:14 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  That’s fascinating. I have a hard time believing the SEC-loving committee would but 11-1 Alabama at #8, TAMU at #10, and Georgia at #12.

There’s special unwritten rules that ensure ESPN’s golden child always has a team in the top 4.

A couple reasons. (1) There are a large number of 1-loss teams; remember the year the 12-1 Big Ten Champion Buckeyes couldn't make the playoff. (2) You know how SEC-haters complain most years when pre-season rankings lead to Top 10 SEC games every week; that method of dominance does not work for the SEC if they lose in the early season (as both division winners did).

Georgia beat a whopping 2 teams with winning records: 8-4 Auburn and 7-5 Tennessee. They look good on the field (#4 power ranking) and so a win over a Top 10 A&M team may vault them into playoff contention (?).

Had Alabama qualified for the SEC Championship Game, they'd be in great position. Their #8 ranking looks low but the teams ranked #5-#8 are all neck-and-neck. Of course, your point that the real committee would sort those teams by prestige (#5 Alabama, #6 Oklahoma, #7 Miami, then #8 Utah) is fair.
04-12-2022 03:00 PM
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MinerInWisconsin Offline
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Post: #10
RE: '22 Season End Simulations
So UTEP bowling 2 seasons in a row ? Sounds good but the Miners need to win one of those for a change.
04-12-2022 03:06 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #11
RE: '22 Season End Simulations
(04-12-2022 03:06 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  So UTEP bowling 2 seasons in a row ? Sounds good but the Miners need to win one of those for a change.

Yep. This is an above-average sim for the Miners. I've got their most likely finish as 6-6, but in this sim they go 7-5 and even scare Oklahoma. Have them at 59% chance to go bowling a 2nd year in a row and a 7% chance of making the CUSA Championship. Only 2 gimmie wins and 3 "likely" losses, so they'll have to work hard to get there.
04-12-2022 06:07 PM
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freshtop Offline
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Post: #12
'22 Season End Simulations [SEC stumbles out the gate]
I like this sim.

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04-12-2022 06:46 PM
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TrueBlueDrew Offline
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Post: #13
RE: '22 Season End Simulations [SEC stumbles out the gate]
Georgia Southern (picked almost unanimously to finish last in the Sun Belt East this season) barely beating FCS Morgan State before something clicks and then completely decimating Ball State, UAB, and the SB East would be peak #FunBelt 05-stirthepot

Worth noting, if Georgia Southern were ranked higher than Louisiana at the end of the season, GS would host Louisiana for the conference title even if Louisiana had a win over GS in the regular season.
04-12-2022 06:48 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #14
RE: '22 Season End Simulations [SEC stumbles out the gate]
(04-12-2022 06:48 PM)TrueBlueDrew Wrote:  Georgia Southern (picked almost unanimously to finish last in the Sun Belt East this season) barely beating FCS Morgan State before something clicks and then completely decimating Ball State, UAB, and the SB East would be peak #FunBelt 05-stirthepot

Worth noting, if Georgia Southern were ranked higher than Louisiana at the end of the season, GS would host Louisiana for the conference title even if Louisiana had a win over GS in the regular season.

Yes, worth mentioning. The @s in what I post on this board are lazy coding on my part; both permutations are spit out and I manually delete the one with the worst rank first. In the actual sim, no team is given home-field advantage for any CCGs (perhaps also lazy coding). If you search for neutral site games (like Florida-Georgia) you'll see those games listed twice.

Wow, 10-2! I've got them pegged as 4-8 with 2 likely wins, 6 likely losses and 4 toss ups. Must be a late transfer portal addition or some magic happening in Statesboro. And that season finale against App with the division on the line?? 52-17! Does the Belt get a look-in on their TV contract after this year?
(This post was last modified: 04-13-2022 12:10 AM by Crayton.)
04-13-2022 12:09 AM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #15
RE: '22 Season End Simulations [SEC stumbles out the gate]
(04-12-2022 06:46 PM)freshtop Wrote:  I like this sim.

Sent from my SM-G960U1 using Tapatalk

Undefeated in conference, nice! They are my preseason #3, not far behind UTSA and UAB. UTSA gets a slight boost because they avoid #4 FAU while WKU and UAB have to play all 3.

This sim has an interesting 3-way tie for the second spot in the CCG. UTEP, UTSA, and FAU are all 6-2. UTSA beat UTEP who beat FAU. UTSA is given the nod due to best computer ranking, but we can't rule out a last-minute tie-breaker revision that puts Southern Miss into the title game against the Hilltoppers.
04-13-2022 12:23 AM
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DawgNBama Offline
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Post: #16
RE: '22 Season End Simulations [SEC stumbles out the gate]
(04-12-2022 11:52 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Preseason, Sim 125. Georgia lost to Oregon to open the season and Texas A&M lost to Miami a few weeks later. Those two losses put a ceiling on the SEC this sim. Clemson's lone loss came to Notre Dame whose lone loss came to Ohio State whose lone loss came to.. double checks... Indiana. Oklahoma's lone loss came early in the year to Nebraska.

Power-wise, there is lots of parity among the P4 (1581, 1578, 1569, 1567) and... the American (1543). Therefore, no benefit-of-the-doubt for SEC/B1G blue-bloods (see Alabama). And the Pac-12 (1510) sits in the tweener position.

Cincinnati is once again in playoff position. The ACC Champ and Ohio State too look like win-and-in propositions. Notre Dame 'may' stick the landing, but Oklahoma and Utah (who lost to Oregon earlier in the year) will have some pretty great 13th data points to potentially lift them into the playoff.

Week 14 matchups
#1 Clemson (11-1) @ #6 Miami (11-1)
#2 Cincinnati (12-0) @ #11 UCF (11-1)
#3 Ohio St (11-1) @ #26 Minnesota (10-2)
#4 Notre Dame (11-1) **at large**
#5 Oklahoma (11-1) @ #13 OK State (10-2)
#7 Utah (11-1) @ #17 Oregon (10-2)
#8 Alabama (11-1) **at large**
#9 Pittsburgh (11-1) **at large**
#10 Texas A&M (10-2) @ #12 Georgia (11-1)
#14 Air Force (11-1) @ #21 San Diego St (10-2)
#19 Ga Southern (10-2) @ #33 Louisiana (10-2)
#31 WKU (11-2) @ #43 UTSA (8-4)
#20 Western Michigan (10-2) @ #53 Miami(OH) (8-4)

Code:
WEEK: 0
43-24 // #53 Nebraska (1-0) @ #87 Northwestern (0-1)
24-43 // #87 Northwestern (0-1) @ #53 Nebraska (1-0)
39-28 // #72 Wyoming (1-0) @ #88 Illinois (0-1)
20-23 // #105 North Texas (0-1) @ #104 UTEP (1-0)
13-24 // #111 Vanderbilt (0-1) @ #92 Hawaii (1-0)
14-46 // #124 Charlotte (0-1) @ #93 FAU (1-0)
17-29 // #128 UConn (0-1) @ #62 Utah St (1-0)
29-28 // #64 Nevada (1-0) @ #129 New Mexico St (0-1)
30-32 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #71 Florida St (1-0)
14-44 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #46 North Carolina (1-0)
27-29 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #63 WKU (1-0)

WEEK: 1
27-24 // #28 Oregon (0-0) @ #4 Georgia (0-0)
24-27 // #4 Georgia (0-0) @ #28 Oregon (0-0)
21-28 // #5 Notre Dame (0-0) @ #1 Ohio St (0-0)
10-19 // #22 Houston (0-0) @ #64 UTSA (0-0)
24-21 // #74 Florida St (1-0) @ #29 LSU (0-0)
21-24 // #29 LSU (0-0) @ #74 Florida St (1-0)
30-28 // #17 Utah (0-0) @ #31 Florida (0-0)
24-21 // #12 Cincinnati (0-0) @ #33 Arkansas (0-0)
17-14 // #9 Penn State (0-0) @ #38 Purdue (0-0)
21-38 // #45 Western Michigan (0-0) @ #16 Michigan St (0-0)
24-17 // #69 Memphis (0-0) @ #47 Mississippi St (0-0)
10-26 // #48 West Virginia (0-0) @ #18 Pittsburgh (0-0)
26-7 // #46 North Carolina (1-0) @ #49 App St (0-0)
24-55 // #52 Utah St (1-0) @ #2 Alabama (0-0)
36-27 // #65 Tulsa (0-0) @ #53 Wyoming (1-0)
34-44 // #56 Central Michigan (0-0) @ #8 OK State (0-0)
24-26 // #58 TCU (0-0) @ #84 Colorado (0-0)
29-28 // #78 Georgia St (0-0) @ #60 South Carolina (0-0)
20-30 // #68 Miami(OH) (0-0) @ #25 Kentucky (0-0)
29-17 // #26 Boise St (0-0) @ #71 Oregon St (0-0)
24-31 // #72 Virginia Tech (0-0) @ #104 Old Dominion (0-0)
27-24 // #96 Illinois (0-1) @ #76 Indiana (0-0)
35-17 // #85 Army (0-1) @ #79 Coastal Carolina (0-0)
37-24 // #30 NC State (0-0) @ #81 East Carolina (0-0)
53-17 // #66 WKU (1-0) @ #86 Hawaii (1-0)
36-14 // #35 Louisville (0-0) @ #88 Syracuse (0-0)
10-20 // #90 Ball St (0-0) @ #43 Tennessee (0-0)
32-27 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #91 California (0-0)
14-67 // #93 Georgia Tech (0-0) @ #6 Clemson (0-0)
67-14 // #6 Clemson (0-0) @ #93 Georgia Tech (0-0)
20-23 // #94 Rutgers (0-0) @ #70 Boston College (0-0)
10-43 // #95 Kent St (0-0) @ #77 Washington (0-0)
14-31 // #97 Troy (0-0) @ #20 Ole Miss (0-0)
10-68 // #100 Buffalo (0-0) @ #44 Maryland (0-0)
28-32 // #103 UTEP (1-0) @ #3 Oklahoma (0-0)
39-34 // #19 BYU (0-0) @ #106 USF (0-0)
31-28 // #87 FAU (1-0) @ #107 Ohio (0-0)
24-31 // #108 Colorado St (0-0) @ #7 Michigan (0-0)
21-59 // #109 La Tech (0-0) @ #73 Missouri (0-0)
36-21 // #42 SMU (0-0) @ #110 North Texas (0-1)
32-31 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #111 South Alabama (0-0)
21-31 // #115 Arizona (0-0) @ #39 San Diego St (0-0)
13-55 // #117 Rice (0-0) @ #54 USC (0-0)
27-24 // #82 Liberty (0-0) @ #118 Southern Miss (0-0)
17-14 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #119 UNLV (0-0)
13-23 // #121 Texas St (0-0) @ #62 Nevada (1-0)
10-44 // #122 La Monroe (0-0) @ #15 Texas (0-0)
17-26 // #123 Temple (0-0) @ #112 Duke (0-0)
24-45 // #125 Bowling Green (0-0) @ #55 UCLA (0-0)
37-21 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #127 Akron (0-0)
33-13 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #128 UConn (0-1)
20-41 // #129 New Mexico St (0-1) @ #40 Minnesota (0-0)
39-17 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #130 FIU (0-0)
17-39 // #131 UMass (0-0) @ #98 Tulane (0-0)
21-24 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #113 Vanderbilt (0-1)
17-20 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #21 Auburn (0-0)
17-29 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #10 Texas A&M (0-0)
7-29 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #23 Wake Forest (0-0)
17-64 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #32 Miami (0-0)
21-37 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #57 Virginia (0-0)
16-19 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #11 Wisconsin (0-0)
17-39 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #14 Iowa (0-0)
3-34 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #50 Nebraska (1-0)
14-36 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #114 Kansas (0-0)
14-48 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #37 Kansas St (0-0)
27-31 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #24 Iowa St (0-0)
28-31 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #67 Texas Tech (0-0)
17-55 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #13 Baylor (0-0)
16-39 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #36 Arizona St (0-0)
10-35 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #99 Stanford (0-0)
28-37 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #59 Washington St (0-0)
7-41 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #34 UCF (0-0)
17-24 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #75 Navy (1-0)
17-24 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #27 Air Force (0-0)
28-31 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #116 New Mexico (0-0)
27-30 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #51 Fresno St (0-0)
24-27 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #101 San Jose St (0-0)
24-28 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #61 UAB (0-0)
14-37 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #124 Charlotte (0-1)
7-33 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #80 Marshall (0-0)
27-30 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #89 Northern Illinois (0-0)
24-27 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #63 Toledo (0-0)
17-32 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #83 Eastern Michigan (0-0)
14-50 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #120 Arkansas St (0-0)
17-19 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #41 Louisiana (0-0)
20-27 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #105 Ga Southern (0-0)

WEEK: 2
16-13 // #109 Ohio (0-1) @ #9 Penn State (1-0)
17-19 // #16 Baylor (1-0) @ #21 BYU (1-0)
33-16 // #2 Alabama (1-0) @ #17 Texas (1-0)
17-18 // #26 Iowa St (1-0) @ #18 Iowa (1-0)
20-23 // #28 Louisville (1-0) @ #31 UCF (1-0)
24-21 // #71 Colorado (1-0) @ #29 Air Force (1-0)
28-38 // #32 Arizona St (1-0) @ #8 OK State (1-0)
20-37 // #37 Tennessee (1-0) @ #15 Pittsburgh (1-0)
35-42 // #41 UTSA (1-0) @ #73 Army (1-1)
22-17 // #22 Kentucky (1-0) @ #48 Florida (0-1)
17-20 // #49 Fresno St (1-0) @ #81 Oregon St (0-1)
31-28 // #78 South Carolina (0-1) @ #53 Arkansas (0-1)
28-33 // #55 Washington St (1-0) @ #12 Wisconsin (1-0)
21-22 // #60 App St (0-1) @ #11 Texas A&M (1-0)
24-27 // #63 Missouri (1-0) @ #34 Kansas St (1-0)
29-17 // #33 North Carolina (2-0) @ #65 Georgia St (1-0)
29-20 // #47 Houston (0-1) @ #70 Texas Tech (1-0)
44-24 // #46 Memphis (1-0) @ #72 Navy (2-0)
35-34 // #62 UAB (1-0) @ #74 Liberty (1-0)
28-40 // #75 Marshall (1-0) @ #5 Notre Dame (0-1)
31-34 // #82 Eastern Michigan (1-0) @ #40 Louisiana (1-0)
17-18 // #84 Northern Illinois (1-0) @ #45 Tulsa (1-0)
30-17 // #42 USC (1-0) @ #86 Stanford (1-0)
7-16 // #87 Old Dominion (1-0) @ #83 East Carolina (0-1)
20-17 // #52 Virginia (1-0) @ #88 Illinois (1-1)
24-21 // #56 Boston College (1-0) @ #89 Virginia Tech (0-1)
7-69 // #92 San Jose St (1-0) @ #24 Auburn (1-0)
14-28 // #93 Ga Southern (1-0) @ #43 Nebraska (2-0)
28-30 // #94 Duke (1-0) @ #97 Northwestern (0-1)
28-31 // #95 Hawaii (1-1) @ #7 Michigan (1-0)
15-10 // #58 Western Michigan (0-1) @ #99 Ball St (0-1)
7-26 // #103 Kent St (0-1) @ #3 Oklahoma (1-0)
56-21 // #126 UNLV (0-1) @ #105 California (0-1)
31-28 // #108 Middle Tennessee (0-1) @ #107 Colorado St (0-1)
14-38 // #110 Kansas (1-0) @ #59 West Virginia (0-1)
31-28 // #23 Boise St (1-0) @ #111 New Mexico (1-0)
21-32 // #113 Arkansas St (1-0) @ #1 Ohio St (1-0)
31-20 // #25 Wake Forest (1-0) @ #116 Vanderbilt (1-1)
27-13 // #68 Mississippi St (0-1) @ #117 Arizona (0-1)
10-55 // #119 Southern Miss (0-1) @ #30 Miami (1-0)
24-17 // #38 Maryland (1-0) @ #120 Charlotte (1-1)
6-19 // #123 South Alabama (0-1) @ #69 Central Michigan (0-1)
22-13 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #125 Bowling Green (0-1)
14-64 // #127 New Mexico St (0-2) @ #100 UTEP (1-1)
14-15 // #128 Akron (0-1) @ #14 Michigan St (1-0)
30-20 // #96 Syracuse (0-1) @ #129 UConn (0-2)
24-31 // #130 FIU (0-1) @ #121 Texas St (0-1)
14-34 // #131 UMass (0-1) @ #64 Toledo (1-0)
28-36 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #6 Georgia (0-1)
14-41 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #57 LSU (0-1)
28-45 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #19 Ole Miss (1-0)
20-24 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #4 Clemson (1-0)
7-61 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #27 NC State (1-0)
14-49 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #98 Georgia Tech (0-1)
20-23 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #101 Rutgers (0-1)
21-47 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #90 Indiana (0-1)
7-50 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #54 Purdue (0-1)
10-19 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #36 Minnesota (1-0)
23-26 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #79 TCU (0-1)
17-65 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #44 UCLA (1-0)
14-57 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #13 Utah (1-0)
31-34 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #20 Oregon (1-0)
14-29 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #66 Washington (1-0)
7-27 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #10 Cincinnati (1-0)
14-60 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #106 USF (0-1)
21-24 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #124 Temple (0-1)
24-27 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #39 SMU (1-0)
24-42 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #85 Tulane (1-0)
35-39 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #77 Wyoming (1-1)
21-41 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #67 Utah St (1-1)
17-35 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #35 San Diego St (1-0)
20-30 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #61 Nevada (2-0)
24-27 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #114 La Tech (0-1)
13-16 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #118 Rice (0-1)
20-29 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #115 North Texas (0-2)
17-43 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #76 FAU (2-0)
13-31 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #104 Buffalo (0-1)
10-17 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #80 Miami(OH) (0-1)
20-27 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #102 Troy (0-1)
21-28 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #122 La Monroe (0-1)
21-24 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #91 Coastal Carolina (0-1)

WEEK: 3
28-31 // #3 Oklahoma (2-0) @ #42 Nebraska (3-0)
20-17 // #25 Miami (2-0) @ #10 Texas A&M (2-0)
20-31 // #11 BYU (2-0) @ #21 Oregon (2-0)
27-24 // #79 Texas Tech (1-1) @ #24 NC State (2-0)
20-13 // #29 SMU (2-0) @ #28 Maryland (2-0)
21-36 // #30 Penn State (1-1) @ #18 Auburn (2-0)
17-21 // #36 San Diego St (2-0) @ #14 Utah (2-0)
24-26 // #38 Louisiana (2-0) @ #116 Rice (1-1)
31-28 // #125 South Alabama (0-2) @ #43 UCLA (2-0)
14-34 // #48 Colorado (2-0) @ #37 Minnesota (2-0)
34-13 // #108 Ga Southern (1-1) @ #49 UAB (2-0)
21-38 // #50 Florida St (2-0) @ #35 Louisville (1-1)
28-45 // #51 WKU (2-0) @ #86 Indiana (1-1)
28-21 // #8 Pittsburgh (2-0) @ #57 Western Michigan (1-1)
35-46 // #58 Mississippi St (1-1) @ #53 LSU (1-1)
7-63 // #60 UTSA (1-1) @ #31 Texas (1-1)
6-27 // #61 Nevada (3-0) @ #13 Iowa (2-0)
37-27 // #16 Georgia (1-1) @ #62 South Carolina (1-1)
10-24 // #65 Toledo (2-0) @ #1 Ohio St (2-0)
40-10 // #17 Michigan St (2-0) @ #66 Washington (2-0)
21-17 // #23 UCF (2-0) @ #67 FAU (3-0)
17-23 // #73 Tulane (2-0) @ #27 Kansas St (2-0)
24-17 // #55 Air Force (1-1) @ #75 Wyoming (2-1)
24-27 // #76 Fresno St (1-1) @ #40 USC (2-0)
23-29 // #81 Miami(OH) (1-1) @ #9 Cincinnati (2-0)
29-23 // #9 Cincinnati (2-0) @ #81 Miami(OH) (1-1)
33-14 // #46 Purdue (1-1) @ #84 Syracuse (1-1)
10-27 // #85 Liberty (1-1) @ #22 Wake Forest (2-0)
21-51 // #88 Eastern Michigan (1-1) @ #47 Arizona St (1-1)
23-20 // #104 Buffalo (1-1) @ #89 Coastal Carolina (1-1)
37-17 // #19 Ole Miss (2-0) @ #90 Georgia Tech (1-1)
17-20 // #91 UTEP (2-1) @ #114 New Mexico (1-1)
27-32 // #96 Ohio (1-1) @ #34 Iowa St (1-1)
17-40 // #99 Troy (1-1) @ #72 App St (0-2)
31-34 // #101 USF (1-1) @ #56 Florida (0-2)
14-54 // #102 Old Dominion (1-1) @ #44 Virginia (2-0)
24-31 // #109 La Tech (1-1) @ #4 Clemson (2-0)
24-33 // #110 Kansas (1-1) @ #33 Houston (1-1)
0-65 // #112 Colorado St (0-2) @ #69 Washington St (1-1)
10-56 // #113 Vanderbilt (1-2) @ #93 Northern Illinois (1-1)
10-44 // #115 Arkansas St (1-1) @ #39 Memphis (2-0)
21-56 // #117 Texas St (1-1) @ #32 Baylor (1-1)
32-28 // #107 North Texas (1-2) @ #118 UNLV (1-1)
27-24 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #119 Arizona (0-2)
24-43 // #120 La Monroe (1-1) @ #2 Alabama (2-0)
34-37 // #121 Charlotte (1-2) @ #77 Georgia St (1-1)
40-14 // #95 Rutgers (1-1) @ #122 Temple (1-1)
17-20 // #123 California (0-2) @ #6 Notre Dame (1-1)
14-24 // #126 New Mexico St (0-3) @ #12 Wisconsin (2-0)
20-17 // #82 Marshall (1-1) @ #127 Bowling Green (0-2)
7-21 // #128 Akron (0-2) @ #52 Tennessee (1-1)
17-24 // #129 UConn (0-3) @ #7 Michigan (2-0)
30-21 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #130 UMass (0-2)
17-20 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #15 Kentucky (2-0)
10-52 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #70 Missouri (1-1)
24-27 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #71 Arkansas (0-2)
21-41 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #45 Boston College (2-0)
28-35 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #94 Virginia Tech (0-2)
20-24 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #106 Duke (1-1)
7-34 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #83 Northwestern (1-1)
24-27 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #54 West Virginia (1-1)
14-27 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #5 OK State (2-0)
16-26 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #64 Oregon St (1-1)
17-26 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #74 East Carolina (1-1)
13-62 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #41 Tulsa (2-0)
6-21 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #20 Boise St (2-0)
16-23 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #97 Hawaii (1-2)
17-35 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #124 Southern Miss (0-2)
10-60 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #100 Middle Tennessee (1-1)
7-68 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #59 Army (2-1)
28-42 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #111 Kent St (0-2)
20-23 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #63 Central Michigan (1-1)
16-19 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #103 Ball St (0-2)

WEEK: 4
28-59 // #12 Wisconsin (3-0) @ #1 Ohio St (3-0)
20-21 // #14 Oregon (3-0) @ #53 Washington St (2-1)
26-24 // #3 Clemson (3-0) @ #22 Wake Forest (3-0)
13-32 // #25 Kansas St (3-0) @ #8 Oklahoma (2-1)
30-27 // #7 Notre Dame (2-1) @ #26 North Carolina (3-0)
24-17 // #82 TCU (1-1) @ #27 SMU (3-0)
21-31 // #28 Minnesota (3-0) @ #13 Michigan St (3-0)
17-20 // #29 USC (3-0) @ #57 Oregon St (2-1)
10-26 // #31 Tulsa (3-0) @ #19 Ole Miss (3-0)
29-17 // #35 Baylor (2-1) @ #38 Iowa St (2-1)
27-24 // #11 Utah (3-0) @ #39 Arizona St (2-1)
23-17 // #58 Central Michigan (2-1) @ #40 Penn State (1-2)
7-17 // #45 Maryland (2-1) @ #9 Michigan (3-0)
24-26 // #49 Florida (1-2) @ #47 Tennessee (2-1)
17-36 // #50 West Virginia (2-1) @ #95 Virginia Tech (1-2)
41-17 // #18 Texas (2-1) @ #51 Texas Tech (2-1)
30-20 // #70 UCLA (2-1) @ #55 Colorado (2-1)
21-39 // #59 Missouri (2-1) @ #15 Auburn (3-0)
10-61 // #61 Indiana (2-1) @ #10 Cincinnati (3-0)
32-16 // #43 Boston College (3-0) @ #63 Florida St (2-1)
35-7 // #33 Texas A&M (2-1) @ #66 Arkansas (1-2)
7-35 // #66 Arkansas (1-2) @ #33 Texas A&M (2-1)
23-30 // #68 Toledo (2-1) @ #48 San Diego St (2-1)
20-36 // #69 Nevada (3-1) @ #46 Air Force (2-1)
34-38 // #72 Navy (2-1) @ #74 East Carolina (2-1)
27-34 // #77 FAU (3-1) @ #41 Purdue (2-1)
28-21 // #87 Miami(OH) (1-2) @ #78 Northwestern (2-1)
13-20 // #79 Marshall (2-1) @ #104 Troy (1-2)
14-30 // #80 Northern Illinois (2-1) @ #21 Kentucky (3-0)
28-17 // #6 Iowa (3-0) @ #81 Rutgers (2-1)
10-39 // #85 Wyoming (2-2) @ #34 BYU (2-1)
32-31 // #0 FCS (0-4) @ #88 Illinois (1-2)
24-21 // #32 Virginia (3-0) @ #89 Syracuse (1-2)
31-35 // #91 Buffalo (2-1) @ #98 Eastern Michigan (1-2)
13-49 // #92 Middle Tennessee (2-1) @ #16 Miami (3-0)
17-19 // #93 Georgia Tech (1-2) @ #20 UCF (3-0)
28-31 // #94 Stanford (1-1) @ #71 Washington (2-1)
33-10 // #24 Boise St (3-0) @ #97 UTEP (2-2)
14-62 // #100 Rice (2-1) @ #37 Houston (2-1)
21-42 // #101 New Mexico (2-1) @ #44 LSU (2-1)
21-24 // #102 Coastal Carolina (1-2) @ #60 Georgia St (2-1)
7-62 // #103 Ball St (1-2) @ #84 Ga Southern (2-1)
13-38 // #106 USF (1-2) @ #36 Louisville (2-1)
13-27 // #107 Duke (2-1) @ #114 Kansas (1-2)
7-81 // #108 James Madison (1-0) @ #54 App St (1-2)
17-34 // #109 North Texas (2-2) @ #30 Memphis (3-0)
14-38 // #110 Kent St (1-2) @ #17 Georgia (2-1)
31-28 // #113 La Tech (1-2) @ #111 South Alabama (1-2)
43-13 // #62 Western Michigan (1-2) @ #112 San Jose St (1-1)
17-37 // #115 Arkansas St (1-2) @ #105 Old Dominion (1-2)
20-39 // #116 Vanderbilt (1-3) @ #2 Alabama (3-0)
21-19 // #56 Louisiana (2-1) @ #117 La Monroe (1-2)
20-23 // #118 Southern Miss (1-2) @ #83 Tulane (2-1)
7-23 // #120 Charlotte (1-3) @ #65 South Carolina (1-2)
17-33 // #121 UNLV (1-2) @ #64 Utah St (2-1)
24-33 // #125 Arizona (0-3) @ #124 California (0-3)
20-17 // #96 Hawaii (2-2) @ #126 New Mexico St (0-4)
28-31 // #127 Bowling Green (0-3) @ #75 Mississippi St (1-2)
14-39 // #128 Akron (0-3) @ #90 Liberty (1-2)
10-17 // #129 UConn (0-4) @ #42 NC State (2-1)
10-53 // #130 FIU (0-2) @ #73 WKU (2-1)
14-73 // #131 UMass (0-3) @ #122 Temple (1-2)
14-61 // #0 FCS (0-4) @ #5 Pittsburgh (3-0)
10-59 // #0 FCS (0-4) @ #123 Colorado St (0-3)
24-29 // #0 FCS (0-4) @ #67 UTSA (1-2)
13-17 // #0 FCS (0-4) @ #99 Ohio (1-2)
20-31 // #0 FCS (0-4) @ #119 Texas St (1-2)

WEEK: 5
43-7 // #10 Michigan (4-0) @ #12 Iowa (4-0)
29-27 // #37 LSU (3-1) @ #13 Auburn (4-0)
31-34 // #18 Kentucky (4-0) @ #14 Ole Miss (4-0)
49-3 // #7 OK State (3-0) @ #22 Baylor (3-1)
29-14 // #42 San Diego St (3-1) @ #23 Boise St (4-0)
13-28 // #31 Virginia (4-0) @ #109 Duke (2-2)
32-31 // #26 Louisville (3-1) @ #32 Boston College (4-0)
17-20 // #34 Purdue (3-1) @ #41 Minnesota (3-1)
21-28 // #39 NC State (3-1) @ #3 Clemson (4-0)
28-39 // #43 SMU (3-1) @ #19 UCF (4-0)
26-14 // #6 Cincinnati (4-0) @ #44 Tulsa (3-1)
46-20 // #47 Arizona St (2-2) @ #45 USC (3-1)
17-37 // #48 Oregon St (3-1) @ #5 Utah (4-0)
31-33 // #52 Georgia St (3-1) @ #51 Army (3-1)
24-33 // #53 East Carolina (3-1) @ #105 USF (1-3)
9-6 // #11 Michigan St (4-0) @ #55 Maryland (2-2)
23-20 // #9 Oklahoma (3-1) @ #56 TCU (2-1)
21-30 // #58 Utah St (3-1) @ #25 BYU (3-1)
13-18 // #59 Washington (3-1) @ #57 UCLA (3-1)
34-0 // #21 Texas A&M (3-1) @ #66 Mississippi St (2-2)
14-61 // #68 Texas Tech (2-2) @ #35 Kansas St (3-1)
17-34 // #69 West Virginia (2-2) @ #17 Texas (3-1)
21-31 // #70 UTSA (2-2) @ #96 Middle Tennessee (2-2)
36-7 // #16 Georgia (3-1) @ #73 Missouri (2-2)
28-50 // #74 Tulane (3-1) @ #33 Houston (3-1)
17-35 // #75 Virginia Tech (2-2) @ #30 North Carolina (3-1)
48-28 // #29 Wake Forest (3-1) @ #76 Florida St (2-2)
14-38 // #77 Indiana (2-2) @ #20 Nebraska (4-0)
14-56 // #78 Navy (2-2) @ #38 Air Force (3-1)
29-13 // #50 Central Michigan (3-1) @ #81 Toledo (2-2)
7-36 // #82 Rutgers (2-2) @ #1 Ohio St (4-0)
13-20 // #83 Troy (2-2) @ #61 WKU (3-1)
17-35 // #84 Northern Illinois (2-2) @ #115 Ball St (1-3)
10-21 // #86 Northwestern (2-2) @ #64 Penn State (1-3)
31-28 // #2 Alabama (4-0) @ #88 Arkansas (1-3)
46-17 // #85 Liberty (2-2) @ #92 Old Dominion (2-2)
14-69 // #94 Georgia Tech (1-3) @ #4 Pittsburgh (4-0)
14-39 // #97 Stanford (1-2) @ #28 Oregon (3-1)
20-32 // #98 Ohio (2-2) @ #114 Kent St (1-3)
29-28 // #46 Iowa St (2-2) @ #99 Kansas (2-2)
27-20 // #71 Miami(OH) (2-2) @ #103 Buffalo (2-2)
14-54 // #104 New Mexico (2-2) @ #124 UNLV (1-3)
27-14 // #67 UAB (2-1) @ #106 Rice (2-2)
16-14 // #62 Ga Southern (3-1) @ #107 Coastal Carolina (1-3)
46-21 // #80 FAU (3-2) @ #108 North Texas (2-3)
13-16 // #110 Illinois (1-3) @ #27 Wisconsin (3-1)
20-31 // #112 Temple (2-2) @ #24 Memphis (4-0)
27-28 // #116 California (1-3) @ #40 Washington St (3-1)
14-31 // #117 San Jose St (1-2) @ #90 Wyoming (2-3)
21-40 // #119 La Monroe (1-3) @ #121 Arkansas St (1-3)
21-47 // #120 South Alabama (1-3) @ #60 Louisiana (3-1)
38-35 // #100 UTEP (2-3) @ #123 Charlotte (1-4)
21-17 // #72 Colorado (2-2) @ #125 Arizona (0-4)
32-21 // #130 FIU (0-3) @ #126 New Mexico St (0-5)
35-28 // #127 Bowling Green (0-4) @ #128 Akron (0-4)
33-24 // #89 Fresno St (1-2) @ #129 UConn (0-5)
21-24 // #131 UMass (0-4) @ #91 Eastern Michigan (2-2)
17-21 // #0 FCS (0-5) @ #65 Florida (1-3)
21-24 // #0 FCS (0-5) @ #63 South Carolina (2-2)
16-37 // #0 FCS (0-5) @ #93 Syracuse (1-3)
17-37 // #0 FCS (0-5) @ #87 Marshall (2-2)
24-36 // #0 FCS (0-5) @ #54 Western Michigan (2-2)
14-66 // #0 FCS (0-5) @ #49 App St (2-2)

WEEK: 6
20-17 // #17 Texas A&M (4-1) @ #2 Alabama (5-0)
33-17 // #1 Ohio St (5-0) @ #9 Michigan St (5-0)
26-27 // #13 Nebraska (5-0) @ #87 Rutgers (2-3)
19-20 // #18 Texas (4-1) @ #15 Oklahoma (4-1)
20-19 // #15 Oklahoma (4-1) @ #18 Texas (4-1)
17-31 // #19 BYU (4-1) @ #21 Notre Dame (3-1)
31-17 // #21 Notre Dame (3-1) @ #19 BYU (4-1)
35-42 // #23 North Carolina (4-1) @ #11 Miami (4-0)
21-28 // #25 Wisconsin (4-1) @ #94 Northwestern (2-3)
14-24 // #27 Auburn (4-1) @ #16 Georgia (4-1)
13-29 // #28 Kansas St (4-1) @ #47 Iowa St (3-2)
20-17 // #63 South Carolina (3-2) @ #29 Kentucky (4-1)
20-23 // #31 Houston (4-1) @ #14 Memphis (5-0)
17-48 // #36 Washington St (4-1) @ #57 USC (3-2)
16-13 // #84 Fresno St (2-2) @ #38 Boise St (4-1)
24-34 // #39 Tennessee (3-1) @ #30 LSU (4-1)
17-20 // #42 Army (4-1) @ #26 Wake Forest (4-1)
44-23 // #6 Utah (5-0) @ #43 UCLA (4-1)
54-10 // #4 Clemson (5-0) @ #45 Boston College (4-1)
31-14 // #20 Louisville (4-1) @ #49 Virginia (4-1)
41-31 // #46 Purdue (3-2) @ #60 Maryland (2-3)
37-20 // #44 Ga Southern (4-1) @ #62 Georgia St (3-2)
43-20 // #34 Air Force (4-1) @ #67 Utah St (3-2)
24-57 // #68 Washington (3-2) @ #35 Arizona St (3-2)
17-20 // #69 Middle Tennessee (3-2) @ #55 UAB (3-1)
29-28 // #75 Missouri (2-3) @ #70 Florida (2-3)
3-17 // #71 East Carolina (3-2) @ #77 Tulane (3-2)
20-13 // #79 Arkansas (1-4) @ #72 Mississippi St (2-3)
21-34 // #73 Texas Tech (2-3) @ #3 OK State (4-0)
16-27 // #80 Florida St (2-3) @ #50 NC State (3-2)
27-24 // #5 Michigan (5-0) @ #81 Indiana (2-3)
31-28 // #52 WKU (4-1) @ #82 UTSA (2-3)
21-32 // #83 Virginia Tech (2-3) @ #7 Pittsburgh (5-0)
30-23 // #48 Tulsa (3-2) @ #86 Navy (2-3)
31-34 // #88 Eastern Michigan (3-2) @ #54 Western Michigan (3-2)
17-18 // #89 James Madison (2-1) @ #102 Arkansas St (2-3)
10-34 // #90 USF (2-3) @ #8 Cincinnati (5-0)
21-60 // #92 Hawaii (3-2) @ #33 San Diego St (4-1)
24-51 // #95 Duke (3-2) @ #106 Georgia Tech (1-4)
27-32 // #96 UTEP (3-3) @ #104 La Tech (2-2)
20-39 // #98 Kent St (2-3) @ #64 Miami(OH) (3-2)
23-24 // #99 Ball St (2-3) @ #40 Central Michigan (4-1)
27-24 // #91 Toledo (2-3) @ #101 Northern Illinois (2-3)
31-6 // #61 TCU (2-2) @ #103 Kansas (2-3)
34-28 // #56 Oregon St (3-2) @ #107 Stanford (1-3)
14-19 // #111 UNLV (2-3) @ #118 San Jose St (1-3)
56-10 // #24 Iowa (4-1) @ #112 Illinois (1-4)
10-56 // #114 Colorado St (1-3) @ #76 Nevada (3-2)
27-40 // #115 New Mexico (2-3) @ #78 Wyoming (3-3)
22-21 // #10 Ole Miss (5-0) @ #119 Vanderbilt (1-4)
14-17 // #120 Southern Miss (1-3) @ #93 Troy (2-3)
27-20 // #41 App St (3-2) @ #121 Texas St (2-3)
34-21 // #113 Coastal Carolina (1-4) @ #123 La Monroe (1-4)
30-28 // #109 Buffalo (2-3) @ #125 Bowling Green (1-4)
36-20 // #22 Oregon (4-1) @ #126 Arizona (0-5)
17-36 // #129 UConn (0-6) @ #127 FIU (1-3)
17-50 // #130 Akron (0-5) @ #105 Ohio (2-3)
31-21 // #66 Liberty (3-2) @ #131 UMass (0-5)

WEEK: 7
31-17 // #30 Auburn (4-2) @ #13 Ole Miss (6-0)
10-49 // #22 LSU (5-1) @ #82 Florida (2-4)
35-42 // #26 Nebraska (5-1) @ #35 Purdue (4-2)
14-17 // #34 Iowa St (4-2) @ #23 Texas (4-2)
20-21 // #40 USC (4-2) @ #4 Utah (6-0)
14-10 // #90 Mississippi St (2-4) @ #43 Kentucky (4-2)
39-17 // #53 Washington St (4-2) @ #46 Oregon St (4-2)
20-27 // #48 Wisconsin (4-2) @ #20 Michigan St (5-1)
41-21 // #12 Alabama (5-1) @ #51 Tennessee (3-2)
51-20 // #3 OK State (5-0) @ #57 TCU (3-2)
21-24 // #59 Louisiana (4-1) @ #77 Marshall (3-2)
17-29 // #60 Penn State (2-3) @ #8 Michigan (6-0)
28-47 // #67 Nevada (4-2) @ #99 Hawaii (3-3)
26-31 // #71 Arkansas (2-4) @ #28 BYU (4-2)
46-31 // #32 Baylor (3-2) @ #80 West Virginia (2-3)
32-31 // #14 Memphis (6-0) @ #83 East Carolina (3-3)
30-21 // #45 WKU (5-1) @ #84 Middle Tennessee (3-3)
31-34 // #85 La Tech (3-2) @ #111 North Texas (2-4)
17-31 // #86 Arkansas St (3-3) @ #122 Southern Miss (1-4)
23-21 // #72 Maryland (2-4) @ #88 Indiana (2-4)
36-14 // #2 Clemson (6-0) @ #89 Florida St (2-4)
39-17 // #6 Miami (5-0) @ #91 Virginia Tech (2-4)
14-28 // #92 Navy (2-4) @ #54 SMU (3-2)
27-24 // #68 Tulane (4-2) @ #93 USF (2-4)
10-50 // #95 James Madison (2-2) @ #37 Ga Southern (5-1)
10-34 // #96 Ohio (3-3) @ #47 Western Michigan (4-2)
22-19 // #42 NC State (4-2) @ #98 Syracuse (2-3)
48-28 // #29 North Carolina (4-2) @ #100 Duke (3-3)
28-30 // #101 Old Dominion (2-3) @ #105 Coastal Carolina (2-4)
20-23 // #106 Kent St (2-4) @ #75 Toledo (3-3)
24-31 // #107 Rice (2-3) @ #62 FAU (4-2)
0-35 // #108 Kansas (2-4) @ #11 Oklahoma (5-1)
14-38 // #109 Northern Illinois (2-4) @ #94 Eastern Michigan (3-3)
14-47 // #110 San Jose St (2-3) @ #66 Fresno St (3-2)
14-67 // #112 Temple (2-3) @ #15 UCF (5-0)
23-26 // #113 Texas St (2-4) @ #76 Troy (3-3)
44-24 // #27 Air Force (5-1) @ #114 UNLV (2-4)
10-45 // #115 Stanford (1-4) @ #7 Notre Dame (4-1)
48-21 // #31 Minnesota (4-1) @ #117 Illinois (1-5)
28-31 // #118 California (1-4) @ #61 Colorado (3-2)
7-67 // #120 Vanderbilt (1-5) @ #16 Georgia (5-1)
41-17 // #78 Utah St (3-3) @ #121 Colorado St (1-4)
23-26 // #123 La Monroe (1-5) @ #119 South Alabama (1-4)
14-36 // #124 Charlotte (1-5) @ #44 UAB (4-1)
50-6 // #97 UTSA (2-4) @ #125 FIU (2-3)
39-3 // #56 Miami(OH) (4-2) @ #126 Bowling Green (1-5)
17-36 // #127 Arizona (0-6) @ #79 Washington (3-3)
50-20 // #116 New Mexico (2-4) @ #128 New Mexico St (0-6)
63-14 // #33 Central Michigan (5-1) @ #129 Akron (0-6)
28-32 // #130 UConn (0-7) @ #102 Ball St (2-4)
18-17 // #103 Buffalo (3-3) @ #131 UMass (0-6)
20-35 // #0 FCS (0-7) @ #58 Army (4-2)
14-26 // #0 FCS (0-7) @ #69 Liberty (4-2)

WEEK: 8
23-16 // #19 Texas (5-2) @ #3 OK State (6-0)
28-30 // #16 Memphis (7-0) @ #56 Tulane (5-2)
17-14 // #7 Pittsburgh (6-0) @ #17 Louisville (5-1)
10-52 // #20 Iowa (5-1) @ #1 Ohio St (6-0)
10-20 // #22 Ole Miss (6-1) @ #38 LSU (5-2)
30-32 // #29 Minnesota (5-1) @ #71 Penn State (2-4)
14-40 // #41 UAB (5-1) @ #36 WKU (6-1)
34-17 // #9 Cincinnati (6-0) @ #45 SMU (4-2)
10-24 // #48 Boston College (4-2) @ #18 Wake Forest (5-1)
17-10 // #11 Texas A&M (5-1) @ #49 South Carolina (4-2)
20-33 // #50 Boise St (4-2) @ #28 Air Force (6-1)
31-32 // #51 Colorado (4-2) @ #60 Oregon St (4-3)
34-27 // #40 Western Michigan (5-2) @ #52 Miami(OH) (5-2)
24-27 // #53 FAU (5-2) @ #102 UTEP (3-4)
20-28 // #55 UCLA (4-2) @ #23 Oregon (5-1)
31-21 // #31 Purdue (5-2) @ #57 Wisconsin (4-3)
20-10 // #37 Kansas St (4-2) @ #63 TCU (3-3)
27-30 // #65 Virginia (4-2) @ #87 Georgia Tech (2-4)
32-31 // #24 BYU (5-2) @ #66 Liberty (5-2)
30-20 // #92 Indiana (2-5) @ #70 Rutgers (3-3)
17-32 // #72 Georgia St (3-3) @ #35 App St (4-2)
20-27 // #76 Washington (4-3) @ #121 California (1-5)
21-24 // #78 Mississippi St (3-4) @ #12 Alabama (6-1)
14-26 // #79 Northwestern (3-3) @ #68 Maryland (3-4)
31-10 // #75 Utah St (4-3) @ #80 Wyoming (4-3)
28-39 // #81 Eastern Michigan (4-3) @ #98 Ball St (3-4)
39-13 // #26 San Diego St (5-1) @ #83 Nevada (4-3)
24-21 // #8 UCF (6-0) @ #85 East Carolina (3-4)
23-20 // #90 West Virginia (2-4) @ #88 Texas Tech (2-4)
30-24 // #39 Houston (4-2) @ #96 Navy (2-5)
14-61 // #97 Syracuse (2-4) @ #2 Clemson (7-0)
7-57 // #99 North Texas (3-4) @ #84 UTSA (3-4)
30-27 // #108 Rice (2-4) @ #100 La Tech (3-3)
35-28 // #73 Toledo (4-3) @ #101 Buffalo (4-3)
28-37 // #103 Duke (3-4) @ #5 Miami (6-0)
38-14 // #115 Northern Illinois (2-5) @ #104 Ohio (3-4)
20-17 // #30 Ga Southern (6-1) @ #106 Old Dominion (2-4)
23-24 // #107 Arkansas St (3-4) @ #67 Louisiana (4-2)
21-17 // #61 Fresno St (4-2) @ #110 New Mexico (3-4)
23-20 // #74 Troy (4-3) @ #111 South Alabama (2-4)
17-39 // #112 Kansas (2-5) @ #33 Baylor (4-2)
30-20 // #27 Arizona St (4-2) @ #113 Stanford (1-5)
58-14 // #44 Tulsa (4-2) @ #116 Temple (2-4)
31-28 // #105 Southern Miss (2-4) @ #117 Texas St (2-5)
21-24 // #118 UNLV (2-5) @ #10 Notre Dame (5-1)
7-37 // #120 Vanderbilt (1-6) @ #64 Missouri (3-3)
27-24 // #82 Hawaii (4-3) @ #122 Colorado St (1-5)
17-24 // #124 La Monroe (1-6) @ #54 Army (5-2)
3-49 // #125 FIU (2-4) @ #123 Charlotte (1-6)
10-29 // #126 Bowling Green (1-6) @ #32 Central Michigan (6-1)
31-28 // #114 San Jose St (2-4) @ #128 New Mexico St (0-7)
0-70 // #129 Akron (0-7) @ #109 Kent St (2-5)
21-28 // #0 FCS (0-8) @ #58 Tennessee (3-3)

WEEK: 9
26-3 // #6 Cincinnati (7-0) @ #7 UCF (7-0)
30-27 // #31 Ole Miss (6-2) @ #8 Texas A&M (6-1)
17-54 // #14 Michigan St (6-1) @ #10 Michigan (7-0)
20-21 // #17 Wake Forest (6-1) @ #24 Louisville (5-2)
39-17 // #4 Pittsburgh (7-0) @ #25 North Carolina (5-2)
44-14 // #12 OK State (6-1) @ #36 Kansas St (5-2)
33-24 // #5 Utah (7-0) @ #45 Washington St (5-2)
24-31 // #48 UAB (5-2) @ #68 FAU (5-3)
47-7 // #19 San Diego St (6-1) @ #50 Fresno St (5-2)
23-20 // #13 Oklahoma (6-1) @ #51 Iowa St (4-3)
21-28 // #52 SMU (4-3) @ #41 Tulsa (5-2)
50-17 // #1 Ohio St (7-0) @ #55 Penn State (3-4)
24-31 // #57 Missouri (4-3) @ #54 South Carolina (4-3)
21-23 // #61 Kentucky (4-3) @ #56 Tennessee (4-3)
46-28 // #27 Arizona St (5-2) @ #67 Colorado (4-3)
44-21 // #15 Georgia (6-1) @ #69 Florida (3-4)
21-44 // #69 Florida (3-4) @ #15 Georgia (6-1)
7-29 // #72 Georgia Tech (3-4) @ #92 Florida St (2-5)
27-24 // #108 Old Dominion (2-5) @ #73 Georgia St (3-4)
13-45 // #74 TCU (3-4) @ #81 West Virginia (3-4)
10-48 // #75 Arkansas (2-5) @ #23 Auburn (5-2)
33-17 // #84 Wyoming (4-4) @ #76 Hawaii (5-3)
48-10 // #3 Miami (7-0) @ #78 Virginia (4-3)
21-44 // #82 Rutgers (3-4) @ #43 Minnesota (5-2)
28-35 // #85 Northwestern (3-4) @ #32 Iowa (5-2)
13-20 // #86 Middle Tennessee (3-4) @ #88 UTEP (4-4)
32-31 // #60 Toledo (5-3) @ #89 Eastern Michigan (4-4)
28-30 // #90 Nevada (4-4) @ #110 San Jose St (3-4)
20-27 // #91 East Carolina (3-5) @ #22 BYU (6-2)
41-17 // #35 Baylor (5-2) @ #93 Texas Tech (2-5)
20-45 // #94 USF (2-5) @ #39 Houston (5-2)
14-29 // #96 Virginia Tech (2-5) @ #46 NC State (5-2)
10-30 // #98 Coastal Carolina (3-4) @ #47 Marshall (5-2)
27-24 // #65 Louisiana (5-2) @ #99 Southern Miss (3-4)
28-21 // #9 Notre Dame (6-1) @ #103 Syracuse (2-5)
24-40 // #106 North Texas (3-5) @ #28 WKU (7-1)
26-17 // #115 South Alabama (2-5) @ #109 Arkansas St (3-5)
43-14 // #18 Oregon (6-1) @ #112 California (2-5)
21-24 // #116 Stanford (1-6) @ #66 UCLA (4-3)
7-51 // #117 Temple (2-5) @ #102 Navy (2-6)
13-49 // #119 Charlotte (2-6) @ #97 Rice (3-4)
21-65 // #121 Illinois (1-6) @ #38 Nebraska (5-2)
20-27 // #123 Colorado St (1-6) @ #58 Boise St (4-3)
56-17 // #107 La Tech (3-4) @ #125 FIU (2-5)
46-14 // #44 USC (4-3) @ #127 Arizona (0-7)
45-14 // #59 Boston College (4-3) @ #129 UConn (0-8)
23-7 // #128 New Mexico St (0-8) @ #130 UMass (0-7)
59-10 // #64 Miami(OH) (5-3) @ #131 Akron (0-8)
14-53 // #0 FCS (0-9) @ #34 App St (5-2)

WEEK: 10
21-38 // #4 Clemson (8-0) @ #9 Notre Dame (7-1)
20-30 // #13 Texas (6-2) @ #42 Kansas St (5-3)
14-28 // #16 Oregon (7-1) @ #68 Colorado (4-4)
20-3 // #14 UCF (7-1) @ #25 Memphis (7-1)
21-45 // #29 Baylor (6-2) @ #10 Oklahoma (7-1)
16-20 // #31 Iowa (6-2) @ #30 Purdue (6-2)
23-20 // #40 Minnesota (6-2) @ #32 Nebraska (6-2)
36-17 // #12 Alabama (7-1) @ #35 LSU (6-2)
17-20 // #36 North Carolina (5-3) @ #83 Virginia (4-4)
31-32 // #37 App St (6-2) @ #104 Coastal Carolina (3-5)
21-36 // #38 Houston (6-2) @ #63 SMU (4-4)
46-28 // #27 Wake Forest (6-2) @ #41 NC State (6-2)
31-33 // #43 Tulane (6-2) @ #34 Tulsa (6-2)
13-42 // #46 Army (6-2) @ #23 Air Force (7-1)
42-13 // #23 Air Force (7-1) @ #46 Army (6-2)
17-64 // #47 Tennessee (5-3) @ #11 Georgia (7-1)
28-31 // #49 Washington St (5-3) @ #117 Stanford (1-7)
28-24 // #19 BYU (7-2) @ #51 Boise St (5-3)
14-50 // #55 UCLA (5-3) @ #22 Arizona St (6-2)
20-32 // #57 Oregon St (5-3) @ #84 Washington (4-4)
21-55 // #59 Troy (5-3) @ #54 Louisiana (6-2)
68-14 // #70 UTSA (4-4) @ #62 UAB (5-3)
14-48 // #66 West Virginia (4-4) @ #58 Iowa St (4-4)
30-32 // #69 Kentucky (4-4) @ #67 Missouri (4-4)
13-26 // #71 Liberty (5-3) @ #86 Arkansas (2-6)
29-24 // #60 Maryland (4-4) @ #73 Wisconsin (4-4)
14-37 // #74 Florida (3-5) @ #15 Texas A&M (6-2)
21-28 // #76 Florida St (3-5) @ #6 Miami (8-0)
29-20 // #65 Penn State (3-5) @ #77 Indiana (3-5)
43-21 // #20 Auburn (6-2) @ #78 Mississippi St (3-5)
24-57 // #79 Ball St (4-4) @ #100 Kent St (3-5)
35-23 // #75 UTEP (5-4) @ #80 Rice (4-4)
23-32 // #81 Hawaii (5-4) @ #64 Fresno St (5-3)
17-20 // #82 Georgia Tech (3-5) @ #102 Virginia Tech (2-6)
17-27 // #87 Navy (3-6) @ #5 Cincinnati (8-0)
26-24 // #7 Michigan (8-0) @ #88 Rutgers (3-5)
58-3 // #1 Ohio St (8-0) @ #90 Northwestern (3-5)
7-31 // #91 James Madison (2-4) @ #18 Louisville (6-2)
14-34 // #93 Texas Tech (2-6) @ #89 TCU (3-5)
17-33 // #95 Middle Tennessee (3-5) @ #96 La Tech (4-4)
24-17 // #45 Marshall (6-2) @ #99 Old Dominion (3-5)
52-21 // #85 Georgia St (3-5) @ #103 Southern Miss (3-5)
21-23 // #105 Syracuse (2-6) @ #3 Pittsburgh (8-0)
24-37 // #106 Buffalo (4-4) @ #112 Ohio (3-5)
17-45 // #107 South Alabama (3-5) @ #24 Ga Southern (7-1)
61-24 // #33 Central Michigan (7-1) @ #109 Northern Illinois (3-5)
14-35 // #110 Duke (3-5) @ #52 Boston College (5-3)
7-39 // #111 New Mexico (3-5) @ #61 Utah St (5-3)
32-21 // #8 OK State (7-1) @ #114 Kansas (2-6)
21-58 // #115 UNLV (2-6) @ #17 San Diego St (7-1)
31-32 // #116 California (2-6) @ #44 USC (5-3)
10-35 // #118 Texas St (2-6) @ #124 La Monroe (1-7)
34-24 // #28 WKU (8-1) @ #119 Charlotte (2-7)
26-24 // #98 USF (2-6) @ #120 Temple (2-6)
29-14 // #48 South Carolina (5-3) @ #121 Vanderbilt (1-7)
33-21 // #26 Michigan St (6-2) @ #122 Illinois (1-7)
21-37 // #123 Colorado St (1-7) @ #94 San Jose St (4-4)
14-7 // #39 Western Michigan (6-2) @ #125 Bowling Green (1-7)
21-32 // #126 FIU (2-6) @ #108 North Texas (3-6)
20-29 // #128 Arizona (0-8) @ #2 Utah (8-0)
24-27 // #131 UMass (0-8) @ #129 UConn (0-9)

WEEK: 11
32-31 // #85 Indiana (3-6) @ #1 Ohio St (9-0)
17-32 // #16 Louisville (7-2) @ #10 Clemson (8-1)
20-17 // #15 Texas A&M (7-2) @ #17 Auburn (7-2)
21-44 // #22 Ga Southern (8-1) @ #50 Louisiana (7-2)
28-24 // #11 Alabama (8-1) @ #28 Ole Miss (7-2)
20-23 // #29 Tulsa (7-2) @ #34 Memphis (7-2)
14-22 // #32 Kansas St (6-3) @ #36 Baylor (6-3)
21-34 // #37 Nebraska (6-3) @ #7 Michigan (9-0)
38-7 // #49 App St (6-3) @ #38 Marshall (7-2)
24-32 // #40 LSU (6-3) @ #68 Arkansas (3-6)
17-20 // #41 North Carolina (5-4) @ #23 Wake Forest (7-2)
24-49 // #42 South Carolina (6-3) @ #79 Florida (3-6)
17-20 // #46 Iowa St (5-4) @ #9 OK State (8-1)
33-17 // #12 UCF (8-1) @ #47 Tulane (6-3)
24-20 // #44 Boston College (6-3) @ #51 NC State (6-3)
17-30 // #52 Utah St (6-3) @ #88 Hawaii (5-5)
34-14 // #57 Maryland (5-4) @ #55 Penn State (4-5)
14-17 // #56 Colorado (5-4) @ #39 USC (6-3)
17-44 // #58 Missouri (5-4) @ #62 Tennessee (5-4)
13-23 // #59 Fresno St (6-3) @ #116 UNLV (2-7)
15-14 // #101 Ohio (4-5) @ #60 Miami(OH) (6-3)
27-29 // #64 Oregon St (5-4) @ #117 California (2-7)
31-24 // #21 Arizona St (7-2) @ #67 Washington St (5-4)
32-21 // #54 Army (6-3) @ #69 Troy (5-4)
42-20 // #4 Pittsburgh (9-0) @ #71 Virginia (5-4)
10-51 // #72 Washington (5-4) @ #30 Oregon (7-2)
7-57 // #73 TCU (4-5) @ #24 Texas (6-3)
42-21 // #8 Oklahoma (8-1) @ #76 West Virginia (4-5)
28-48 // #78 Florida St (3-6) @ #105 Syracuse (2-7)
21-24 // #80 La Tech (5-4) @ #61 UTSA (5-4)
28-50 // #81 Wisconsin (4-5) @ #35 Iowa (6-3)
24-21 // #13 Georgia (8-1) @ #84 Mississippi St (3-6)
17-21 // #86 Rutgers (3-6) @ #20 Michigan St (7-2)
7-63 // #87 San Jose St (5-4) @ #14 San Diego St (8-1)
7-50 // #89 Rice (4-5) @ #27 WKU (9-1)
59-7 // #5 Miami (9-0) @ #90 Georgia Tech (3-6)
14-27 // #91 Navy (3-7) @ #6 Notre Dame (8-1)
27-14 // #6 Notre Dame (8-1) @ #91 Navy (3-7)
20-23 // #92 James Madison (2-5) @ #103 Old Dominion (3-6)
38-17 // #45 SMU (5-4) @ #95 USF (3-6)
14-58 // #96 Ball St (4-5) @ #48 Toledo (6-3)
14-19 // #98 Northwestern (3-6) @ #31 Minnesota (7-2)
21-37 // #99 East Carolina (3-6) @ #3 Cincinnati (9-0)
24-17 // #75 UAB (5-4) @ #100 North Texas (4-6)
23-10 // #63 Boise St (5-4) @ #102 Nevada (4-5)
21-49 // #106 Stanford (2-7) @ #2 Utah (9-0)
14-30 // #108 Northern Illinois (3-6) @ #33 Western Michigan (7-2)
17-23 // #109 Southern Miss (3-6) @ #82 Coastal Carolina (4-5)
7-43 // #110 Buffalo (4-5) @ #26 Central Michigan (8-1)
28-42 // #112 Kansas (2-7) @ #111 Texas Tech (2-7)
42-21 // #94 Virginia Tech (3-6) @ #113 Duke (3-6)
19-28 // #114 New Mexico (3-6) @ #18 Air Force (8-1)
7-41 // #118 La Monroe (2-7) @ #74 Georgia St (4-5)
21-28 // #119 Charlotte (2-8) @ #104 Middle Tennessee (3-6)
14-35 // #120 Temple (2-7) @ #43 Houston (6-3)
28-31 // #121 Texas St (2-7) @ #107 South Alabama (3-6)
17-27 // #122 Vanderbilt (1-8) @ #77 Kentucky (4-5)
30-28 // #25 Purdue (7-2) @ #123 Illinois (1-8)
48-17 // #70 Wyoming (5-4) @ #124 Colorado St (1-8)
55-24 // #83 Kent St (4-5) @ #125 Bowling Green (1-8)
46-7 // #53 FAU (6-3) @ #126 FIU (2-7)
19-24 // #128 Arizona (0-9) @ #65 UCLA (5-4)
56-21 // #93 Liberty (5-4) @ #129 UConn (1-9)
38-12 // #97 Eastern Michigan (4-5) @ #130 Akron (0-9)
14-63 // #131 UMass (0-9) @ #115 Arkansas St (3-6)
14-15 // #0 FCS (0-11) @ #127 New Mexico St (1-8)

WEEK: 12
10-29 // #1 Utah (10-0) @ #27 Oregon (8-2)
14-21 // #5 Miami (10-0) @ #8 Clemson (9-1)
24-39 // #7 OK State (9-1) @ #10 Oklahoma (9-1)
16-14 // #75 Oregon St (5-5) @ #16 Arizona St (8-2)
27-24 // #57 NC State (6-4) @ #22 Louisville (7-3)
24-13 // #32 Western Michigan (8-2) @ #23 Central Michigan (9-1)
24-17 // #106 Northwestern (3-7) @ #24 Purdue (8-2)
27-30 // #26 WKU (10-1) @ #25 Auburn (7-3)
28-27 // #0 FCS (0-12) @ #28 Memphis (8-2)
24-28 // #35 Iowa (7-3) @ #31 Minnesota (8-2)
14-28 // #38 Boston College (7-3) @ #6 Notre Dame (9-1)
37-28 // #92 Wisconsin (4-6) @ #41 Nebraska (6-4)
39-10 // #9 Ohio St (9-1) @ #47 Maryland (6-4)
10-30 // #48 Marshall (7-3) @ #29 Ga Southern (8-2)
26-23 // #102 Texas Tech (3-7) @ #53 Iowa St (5-5)
31-34 // #54 Boise St (6-4) @ #64 Wyoming (6-4)
17-10 // #43 SMU (6-4) @ #55 Tulane (6-4)
10-7 // #51 Tennessee (6-4) @ #56 South Carolina (6-4)
23-20 // #36 USC (7-3) @ #58 UCLA (6-4)
46-17 // #33 Ole Miss (7-3) @ #61 Arkansas (4-6)
21-24 // #62 UAB (6-4) @ #50 LSU (6-4)
27-24 // #93 San Jose St (5-5) @ #63 Utah St (6-4)
16-28 // #68 Indiana (4-6) @ #20 Michigan St (8-2)
14-15 // #70 Fresno St (6-4) @ #110 Nevada (4-6)
14-41 // #74 Liberty (6-4) @ #85 Virginia Tech (4-6)
21-10 // #78 Coastal Carolina (5-5) @ #76 Virginia (5-5)
39-24 // #13 Georgia (9-1) @ #79 Kentucky (5-5)
27-24 // #59 Colorado (5-5) @ #80 Washington (5-5)
18-17 // #37 Kansas St (6-4) @ #82 West Virginia (4-6)
14-34 // #83 TCU (4-6) @ #30 Baylor (7-3)
21-27 // #84 Old Dominion (4-6) @ #39 App St (7-3)
20-34 // #86 Ohio (5-5) @ #100 Ball St (4-6)
17-57 // #88 Syracuse (3-7) @ #18 Wake Forest (8-2)
54-17 // #52 UTSA (6-4) @ #89 Rice (4-6)
23-20 // #40 Louisiana (8-2) @ #90 Florida St (3-7)
35-28 // #60 Penn State (4-6) @ #91 Rutgers (3-7)
10-17 // #95 Eastern Michigan (5-5) @ #81 Kent St (5-5)
26-23 // #46 FAU (7-3) @ #96 Middle Tennessee (4-6)
27-28 // #97 Navy (3-8) @ #12 UCF (9-1)
24-41 // #98 Georgia Tech (3-7) @ #49 North Carolina (5-5)
41-17 // #44 Houston (7-3) @ #99 East Carolina (3-7)
14-59 // #101 USF (3-7) @ #34 Tulsa (7-3)
13-24 // #104 South Alabama (4-6) @ #115 Southern Miss (3-7)
20-27 // #105 Arkansas St (4-6) @ #122 Texas St (2-8)
6-24 // #109 UNLV (3-7) @ #77 Hawaii (6-5)
24-27 // #111 Stanford (2-8) @ #107 California (3-7)
34-21 // #71 Miami(OH) (6-4) @ #113 Northern Illinois (3-7)
35-19 // #14 San Diego St (9-1) @ #114 New Mexico (3-7)
24-39 // #116 Duke (3-7) @ #3 Pittsburgh (10-0)
33-28 // #21 Texas (7-3) @ #117 Kansas (2-8)
27-29 // #118 La Monroe (2-8) @ #72 Troy (5-5)
23-20 // #94 La Tech (5-5) @ #119 Charlotte (2-9)
21-26 // #120 Illinois (1-9) @ #4 Michigan (10-0)
35-21 // #2 Cincinnati (10-0) @ #121 Temple (2-8)
45-14 // #69 Florida (4-6) @ #123 Vanderbilt (1-9)
10-30 // #124 Colorado St (1-9) @ #17 Air Force (9-1)
21-42 // #125 FIU (2-8) @ #65 UTEP (6-4)
17-37 // #126 New Mexico St (2-8) @ #67 Missouri (5-5)
6-16 // #127 Bowling Green (1-9) @ #42 Toledo (7-3)
37-21 // #73 Washington St (5-5) @ #128 Arizona (0-10)
10-56 // #129 UConn (1-10) @ #45 Army (7-3)
21-46 // #130 Akron (0-10) @ #112 Buffalo (4-6)
14-44 // #131 UMass (0-10) @ #15 Texas A&M (8-2)
21-58 // #0 FCS (0-12) @ #11 Alabama (9-1)
17-18 // #0 FCS (0-12) @ #87 Mississippi St (3-7)
10-24 // #0 FCS (0-12) @ #19 BYU (8-2)

WEEK: 13
28-41 // #1 Pittsburgh (11-0) @ #10 Miami (10-1)
21-23 // #5 Michigan (11-0) @ #7 Ohio St (10-1)
47-14 // #16 Air Force (10-1) @ #13 San Diego St (10-1)
24-41 // #17 Michigan St (9-2) @ #57 Penn State (5-6)
23-30 // #21 Auburn (8-3) @ #8 Alabama (10-1)
33-24 // #28 Baylor (8-3) @ #22 Texas (8-3)
17-18 // #31 Tulsa (8-3) @ #44 Houston (8-3)
32-28 // #4 Notre Dame (10-1) @ #33 USC (8-3)
17-52 // #34 App St (8-3) @ #24 Ga Southern (9-2)
16-17 // #38 Tennessee (7-4) @ #123 Vanderbilt (1-10)
17-22 // #40 Toledo (8-3) @ #23 Western Michigan (9-2)
32-27 // #49 NC State (7-4) @ #42 North Carolina (6-5)
14-41 // #43 Memphis (8-3) @ #39 SMU (7-4)
49-17 // #30 WKU (10-2) @ #45 FAU (8-3)
27-24 // #54 Nebraska (6-5) @ #46 Iowa (7-4)
14-40 // #48 LSU (7-4) @ #14 Texas A&M (9-2)
35-31 // #56 Georgia St (6-5) @ #52 Marshall (7-4)
26-21 // #9 Utah (10-1) @ #53 Colorado (6-5)
24-31 // #55 Wyoming (7-4) @ #80 Fresno St (6-5)
32-27 // #19 Oregon (9-2) @ #58 Oregon St (6-5)
17-30 // #59 Tulane (6-5) @ #3 Cincinnati (11-0)
28-29 // #61 South Carolina (6-5) @ #2 Clemson (10-1)
27-24 // #75 Arkansas (4-7) @ #62 Missouri (6-5)
14-24 // #65 UTEP (7-4) @ #50 UTSA (7-4)
10-53 // #70 Hawaii (7-5) @ #78 San Jose St (6-5)
28-31 // #71 Kent St (6-5) @ #110 Buffalo (5-6)
10-31 // #72 UAB (6-5) @ #82 La Tech (6-5)
37-24 // #35 Purdue (8-3) @ #76 Indiana (4-7)
21-20 // #25 Minnesota (9-2) @ #77 Wisconsin (5-6)
31-43 // #79 Utah St (6-5) @ #60 Boise St (6-5)
34-17 // #27 Louisville (7-4) @ #81 Kentucky (5-6)
21-31 // #84 Washington (5-6) @ #68 Washington St (6-5)
10-43 // #86 West Virginia (4-7) @ #15 OK State (9-2)
40-7 // #64 Iowa St (5-6) @ #87 TCU (4-7)
27-29 // #88 Ball St (5-6) @ #66 Miami(OH) (7-4)
21-23 // #89 Virginia (5-6) @ #74 Virginia Tech (5-6)
17-14 // #6 Oklahoma (10-1) @ #90 Texas Tech (4-7)
14-47 // #91 Mississippi St (4-7) @ #26 Ole Miss (8-3)
14-26 // #92 Old Dominion (4-7) @ #109 South Alabama (4-7)
38-17 // #69 Florida (5-6) @ #94 Florida St (3-8)
21-20 // #32 Central Michigan (9-2) @ #98 Eastern Michigan (5-6)
20-36 // #100 Rutgers (3-8) @ #51 Maryland (6-5)
14-56 // #101 Georgia Tech (3-8) @ #12 Georgia (10-1)
20-37 // #102 Syracuse (3-8) @ #47 Boston College (7-4)
24-17 // #73 UCLA (6-5) @ #103 California (4-7)
27-24 // #93 Rice (4-7) @ #104 North Texas (4-7)
31-24 // #11 UCF (10-1) @ #105 USF (3-8)
7-8 // #106 East Carolina (3-8) @ #122 Temple (2-9)
31-35 // #107 Southern Miss (4-7) @ #118 La Monroe (2-9)
31-28 // #63 Troy (6-5) @ #111 Arkansas St (4-7)
27-24 // #96 Nevada (5-6) @ #112 UNLV (3-8)
38-35 // #20 BYU (9-2) @ #113 Stanford (2-9)
16-17 // #114 New Mexico (3-8) @ #124 Colorado St (1-10)
73-10 // #18 Wake Forest (9-2) @ #116 Duke (3-8)
27-47 // #117 Kansas (2-9) @ #37 Kansas St (7-4)
30-17 // #36 Louisiana (9-2) @ #119 Texas St (3-8)
24-28 // #121 Illinois (1-10) @ #85 Northwestern (4-7)
31-28 // #99 Middle Tennessee (4-7) @ #125 FIU (2-9)
7-47 // #126 New Mexico St (2-9) @ #83 Liberty (6-5)
24-35 // #127 Bowling Green (1-10) @ #97 Ohio (5-6)
54-7 // #29 Arizona St (8-3) @ #129 Arizona (0-11)
23-26 // #130 Akron (0-11) @ #115 Northern Illinois (3-8)
19-10 // #41 Army (8-3) @ #131 UMass (0-11)

lots of parity in there Crayton. I think you might need to retweek your sim a tad to account for UMass', Oregon's, and Florida's new head coaches. I honestly see the Louisiana Cajuns having a dropoff, and the Gators really doing a lot better!!!
(This post was last modified: 04-13-2022 02:06 AM by DawgNBama.)
04-13-2022 02:05 AM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #17
RE: '22 Season End Simulations [SEC stumbles out the gate]
(04-13-2022 02:05 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  lots of parity in there Crayton. I think you might need to retweek your sim a tad to account for UMass', Oregon's, and Florida's new head coaches. I honestly see the Louisiana Cajuns having a dropoff, and the Gators really doing a lot better!!!

Each sim has a decent dose of randomness thrown in. So, the Gators may go 6-6 this sim and 10-2 the next. I'm not too bullish on Year 1 of Napier. I think my sim is right on. 6 likely wins, 2 likely losses (A&M and Georgia), and 4 toss ups. That opener (have Utah slightly favored) will likely determine if I watch more games live or check the postgame boxscores.

Oregon's 10-2 record is above their 9-3 projection, and their game against Georgia is a "likely" loss, so a victory there is certainly an upset. Louisiana is favored in all their games (expected to finish 11-1, better than this sim). I agree that additional team-specific data (like, a new head-coach) would improve this sim.
04-13-2022 07:59 AM
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TrueBlueDrew Offline
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Post: #18
RE: '22 Season End Simulations [SEC stumbles out the gate]
(04-13-2022 12:09 AM)Crayton Wrote:  
(04-12-2022 06:48 PM)TrueBlueDrew Wrote:  Georgia Southern (picked almost unanimously to finish last in the Sun Belt East this season) barely beating FCS Morgan State before something clicks and then completely decimating Ball State, UAB, and the SB East would be peak #FunBelt 05-stirthepot

Worth noting, if Georgia Southern were ranked higher than Louisiana at the end of the season, GS would host Louisiana for the conference title even if Louisiana had a win over GS in the regular season.

Yes, worth mentioning. The @s in what I post on this board are lazy coding on my part; both permutations are spit out and I manually delete the one with the worst rank first. In the actual sim, no team is given home-field advantage for any CCGs (perhaps also lazy coding). If you search for neutral site games (like Florida-Georgia) you'll see those games listed twice.

Wow, 10-2! I've got them pegged as 4-8 with 2 likely wins, 6 likely losses and 4 toss ups. Must be a late transfer portal addition or some magic happening in Statesboro. And that season finale against App with the division on the line?? 52-17! Does the Belt get a look-in on their TV contract after this year?

I think 4-8 is our floor. Really hoping for 6 wins. I think the talent is there to pick up 4 wins over Morgan State, Ball State, JMU, and ODU. Grad transfer and veteran passing QB from Buffalo plus some O-line transfers should help bridge the gap to the new balanced offense Clay Helton is bringing to Statesboro.

If we were somehow nationally ranked and embarrassed arch rival App State on TV to end the season, I don’t think Statesboro would survive the after party.

Sun Belt’s renegotiated contract with ESPN will begin in 2023. It provides more money so that payouts won’t decrease by splitting the pie 14 ways instead of 10.
04-13-2022 10:55 AM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #19
RE: '22 Season End Simulations [SEC stumbles out the gate]
Ohio State gets the TCU treatment and drops from #3 to out of the playoff after defeating a so-so opponent. It appears the reason for this is that Ohio State was being placed over Notre Dame artificially, because of their head-to-head win, not unlike Oregon>Ohio State this past year. With Oklahoma's victory over OK State the committee edged the Sooners past the Buckeyes and stopped comparing OSU with ND directly. Ohio State suffers the same fate as 2018 when a single loss to a ho-hum conference opponent left them behind the 1-loss Big 12 Champions.

Top 20 After CCGs, Sim #125
#1 Cincinnati (13-0) W1 over UCF 56-7
#2 Miami (12-1) W4 over Clemson 30-28
#3 Notre Dame (11-1) X1
#4 Oklahoma (12-1) W1 over OK State 31-28
#5 Ohio State (12-1) W-2 over Minnesota 26-23
#6 Clemson (11-2) L-5 to Miami 28-30
#7 Utah (12-1) W0 over Oregon 37-16
#8 Texas A&M (11-2) W2 over Georgia 20-17
#9 Alabama (11-1) X-1
#10 Pittsburgh (11-1) X-1
#11 Air Force (12-1) W3 over SDSU 34-20
#13 Michigan (11-1) X4
#13 UCF (11-2) L-2 to Cincinnati 7-56
#14 Wake Forest (10-2) X1
#15 Georgia (11-2) L-3 to Texas A&M 17-20
#16 Ga Southern (11-2) W3 over Louisiana 19-6
#17 OK State (10-3) L-4 to Oklahoma 28-31
#18 BYU (10-2) X0
#19 Western Michigan (11-2) W1 over Miami(OH) 28-24
#20 Oregon (10-3) L-3 to Utah 16-37
#26 WKU (12-2) W5 over UTSA 20-14
(This post was last modified: 04-15-2022 01:10 PM by Crayton.)
04-14-2022 09:13 AM
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freshtop Offline
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Post: #20
RE: '22 Season End Simulations [SEC stumbles out the gate]
(04-14-2022 09:13 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Ohio State gets the TCU treatment and drops from #3 to out of the playoff after defeating a so-so opponent. It appears the reason for this is that Ohio State was being placed over Notre Dame artificially, because of their head-to-head win, not unlike Oregon>Ohio State this past year. With Oklahoma's victory over OK State the committee edged the Sooners past the Buckeyes and stopped comparing OSU with ND directly. Ohio State suffers the same fate as 2018 when a single loss to a ho-hum conference opponent left them behind the 1-loss Big 12 Champions.

Top 20 After CCGs, Sim #125
#1 Cincinnati (13-0) W1 over UCF 56-7
#2 Miami (12-1) W4 over Clemson 30-28
#3 Notre Dame (11-1) X1
#4 Oklahoma (12-1) W1 over OK State 31-28
#5 Ohio State (12-1) W-2 over Minnesota 26-23
#6 Clemson (11-2) L-5 to Miami 28-30
#7 Utah (12-1) W0 over Oregon 37-16
#8 Texas A&M (11-2) W2 over Georgia 20-17
#9 Alabama (11-1) X-1
#10 Pittsburgh (11-1) X-1
#11 Air Force (12-1) W3 over SDSU 34-20
#13 Michigan (11-1) X4
#13 UCF (11-2) L-2 to Cincinnati 7-56
#14 Wake Forest (10-2) X1
#15 Georgia (11-2) L-3 to Texas A&M 17-20
#16 Ga Southern (11-2) W3 over Louisiana 19-6
#17 OK State (10-3) L-4 to Oklahoma 28-31
#18 BYU (10-2) X0
#19 Western Michigan (11-2) W1 over Miami(OH) 28-24
#20 Oregon (10-3) L-3 to Utah 16-37

So I am guessing we lost to UTSA in the CCG? Or won and still fell short of the top 20 at 12-2?
04-14-2022 09:26 AM
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