Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
'22 Season End Simulations [Ohio State - Michigan rematch?]
Author Message
loki_the_bubba Online
All American
*

Posts: 4,754
Joined: Jul 2010
Reputation: 452
I Root For: Rice Owls
Location:
Post: #41
'22 Season End Simulations [not enough 1-loss teams]
Any simulations where Rice wins more tha four games?

Sent from my SM-A600A using Tapatalk
05-04-2022 11:22 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Crayton Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,997
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 105
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #42
RE: '22 Season End Simulations [not enough 1-loss teams]
NC State loses and the playoff is rather non-controversial. Sure, Texas A&M has 2 losses, but the only power team with fewer is NC State from the (this sim) middling ACC. The Cotton Bowl is an all-Sun Belt replay, as Louisiana tries (and fails) to redeem the one loss they suffered during the regular season. Yes, 11-1 Marshall (with 2 Top 25 wins, including #19 Notre Dame) gets the lone at large spot instead of 12-1 NC State (with only 1 Top 25 victory, over #22 Wake Forest).

In the expanded playoffs, Cincinnati ousts P5 Champ Pittsburgh, largely because of having 2 fewer losses, and being from a conference ranked not too far below the ACC. Marshall and Louisiana both do some P5 damage before each falling to eventual champion Alabama. In both expanded formats, 9-3 Texas makes a surprise appearance in the Rose Bowl in a rivalry game (vs. A&M in the 6+3, vs. Oklahoma in the 6+6).

[Image: attachment.php?aid=11113]
05-07-2022 09:56 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Crayton Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,997
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 105
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #43
RE: '22 Season End Simulations [not enough 1-loss teams]
(05-04-2022 11:22 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  Any simulations where Rice wins more tha four games?

Sent from my SM-A600A using Tapatalk

I have 3-9 as their most likely record. 1 "likely" win against their FCS opponent and 4 toss-ups (La Tech, Charlotte, UTEP, UNT). Still, their bowl odds are set to 13%, so not impossible.
05-07-2022 09:59 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
quo vadis Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 45,154
Joined: Aug 2008
Reputation: 1767
I Root For: USF/Georgetown
Location: New Orleans
Post: #44
RE: '22 Season End Simulations [not enough 1-loss teams]
(04-19-2022 09:22 AM)Edgebrookjeff Wrote:  
(04-12-2022 01:18 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  I'm surprised to see Cincy at the top. Lots of talent players heading to the NFL. Key losses: QB Desmond Ridder, CB Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner, RB Jerome Ford, DE Myjai Sanders, and WR Alec Pierce.

I would think the top of the AAC would be:
1. Houston
2. UCF
3. ECU
4. Cincy

Its not uncommon for UCF to be favored in most models. The undefeated streak tends to skew models. So Cincy and UCF having recent undefeated regular seasons outweighs the progress teams like Houston and ECU have made.

Yes, Cincy has more guys going to the NFL than ever before in their history. They also have a good many guys with lots of experience coming back for another year. Plus they will benefit from a few portal guys coming in as well as some highly rated recruits that are ready for more PT. They have a very favorable schedule as they have neither Memphis nor Houston on the schedule. It would not be a surprise if they come close to repeating the success from last year.

Last year, Cincy had the big cap-feather of having beat Notre Dame. IMO that is what got them in to the playoffs. We could almost see it coming - ND themselves had a weak schedule, so they were in position to beat everyone but Cincy, thus looking great on Cincy's resume, which is how it played out.

This year, Cincy doesn't seem to have that. Their schedule looks weak up and down the line.

The one possible wild card is the opener vs Arkansas. If they win that, and then Arkansas, which has been improving, goes on a run and ends up as a top SEC team, then they would fill the bill. But that IMO is very unlikely, given the withering competition of the SEC.

I will be very surprised if Cincy can make the playoffs with this schedule. I will also be surprised if there is ever a single CFP rankings that doesn't include an SEC team.

I'm not sure there ever has been?

Also, just curious - what was your final pre-season simulation prediction for the four playoff teams last year?
(This post was last modified: 05-07-2022 11:42 AM by quo vadis.)
05-07-2022 11:40 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Crayton Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,997
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 105
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #45
RE: '22 Season End Simulations [not enough 1-loss teams]
(05-07-2022 11:40 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Also, just curious - what was your final pre-season simulation prediction for the four playoff teams last year?

Last year, this was an extended (week-by-week) simulation:
https://csnbbs.com/thread-922993.html
and here is a thread similar to this current one with multiple sims:
https://csnbbs.com/thread-924679.html
My '21 pre-season Top 4 most likely playoff teams were:
Ohio State, Alabama, Notre Dame, Clemson
This year they are:
Ohio State, Alabama, Notre Dame, Oklahoma
(replace ND with Clemson for the most likely set of 4)

To all, I would be very interested in delivering data in threads like this which is of interest to fans. So if there are better (or, simply, "more") lists or what-ifs or stats that would be of interest, make mention and I can try and include them.
(This post was last modified: 05-07-2022 05:09 PM by Crayton.)
05-07-2022 05:08 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
owl at the moon Offline
Eastern Screech Owl
*

Posts: 9,620
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 636
I Root For: rice,smu,uh,unt
Location: 23 mbps from csnbbs
Post: #46
'22 Season End Simulations [not enough 1-loss teams]
(05-07-2022 09:59 AM)Crayton Wrote:  
(05-04-2022 11:22 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  Any simulations where Rice wins more tha four games?

Sent from my SM-A600A using Tapatalk

I have 3-9 as their most likely record. 1 "likely" win against their FCS opponent and 4 toss-ups (La Tech, Charlotte, UTEP, UNT). Still, their bowl odds are set to 13%, so not impossible.


That matches my data, Loki.
You might have seen that I have Rice with a >10% chance to make a bowl.

Also noticed that in Sim 125b Rice gets only its second win by beating Ranked UTSA (#25) at home by a FG.

So if we don’t make a bowl I’ll take a win over a ranked team!

(05-08-2022 04:33 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  I would take those odds. I figure we have 10-25% chance of stringing together 6 regular season W’s.

And probably the same 10-20% chance of an 0-fer or 1-11 campaign.
05-10-2022 06:44 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
jimrtex Online
1st String
*

Posts: 1,118
Joined: Aug 2021
Reputation: 37
I Root For: Houston, Tulsa, Colorado
Location:
Post: #47
RE: '22 Season End Simulations [not enough 1-loss teams]
(04-26-2022 02:23 PM)Crayton Wrote:  
(04-26-2022 02:05 PM)jimrtex Wrote:  How do you do your sim?

If you had a set of teams and a schedule could you project the results?

What does 125b indicate?

I've got a database with the teams and schedules. There is also strength data pulled mostly from past years. I run a Monte Carlo simulation 10,000 times. I prefer Monte Carlo to a projection because results in one game often influence others (tie-breakers, correlation of strength, etc) Each "sim" gives each team a different strength value, loosely based around their expected strength. Each game of the sim is then assigned a point spread based on that strength and a random value along a normal distribution of that spread is assigned to the game. A crude algorithm then turns that point spread into a football-ish score.

The original purpose of the software was to rank teams. The results of each sim are then incorporated into the ranking function and every team is assigned a rank from 1-131. Division/Conference tie-breakers are incorporated and postseason games are also simmed. Technically the sim only completes the postseason games of: CCGs, semis, and National Championship; I usually hand-sim other games for the results I post here.

"125b" means of the 10,000 sims, this is #125. If I want to go back weeks from now and reference that sim, I know which one to pull up. "b" I used here because I have over-written the original set of 10,000 sims to incorporate the changes mentioned in my last post. "125" is merely the default number in the system; out of laziness I usually look at that one first.

I am learning SQL because I want the 10,000 years to be accessible online, so that users can filter the results to see "what if" results.
Is the "strength" comparable to a Sagarin rating, where the difference in ratings along with a home-field adjustment is the mean expected point spread?

For each run, you assign a different strength value to the team. What does "loosely" mean. I assume this is to give more variability to the results, and that your strength ratings are necessarily inaccurate (past results are indicative, not predictive), and perhaps to represent events that are difficult or impossible to model, such as a starting QB breaking his arm in first game or a coach having an Urban Meyer event. By varying the season strength you may increase the chance of a team running the table, that would not happen if you applied strength on a game by game basis.

What is the standard deviation for each game? I read that it is 14 points for an NFL game. If it were very large (say 30), it would be like they came out an held the coin toss. "Rams call head", (coin toss), "It is heads, the Rams win the coin toss and the game. Good luck next week gentlemen." If it were 3 points, it would be too predictable.

Do you adjust the strength based on the results of the game? If a game between East-West State and North-South University were a pick, it might still end up a 28-point rout. In your simulation you would roll the dice and they come up snake-eyes or box-cars. Improbable, but not impossible. Though there is no skill involved in rolling the dice, we can assume a 28-point win by E-W is in part due to E-W being the better team. An adjustment in strength would also increase the chance of an undefeated seasons.
05-15-2022 01:05 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Crayton Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,997
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 105
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #48
RE: '22 Season End Simulations [not enough 1-loss teams]
Sim #500 Week 14 and Top 14
#1 Michigan (12-0) @ #11 Wisconsin (10-2)
#2 Ohio St (11-1) **at large**
#3 Oklahoma (12-0) @ #7 OK State (11-1)
#4 Clemson (12-0) @ #15 Pittsburgh (10-2)
#5 Alabama (12-0) @ #14 Georgia (10-2)
#6 Penn State (10-2) **at large**
#8 Navy (10-1) @ #22 East Carolina (9-3)
#9 Notre Dame (9-3) **at large**
#10 Western Michigan (11-1) @ #77 Ohio (7-5)
#12 Auburn (9-3) **at large**
#13 Boise St (11-1) @ #45 San Diego St (9-3)
#18 Oregon (10-2) @ #49 Arizona St (8-4)
#36 WKU (11-2) @ #42 UTSA (9-3)
#37 App St (9-3) @ #47 Louisiana (10-2)

This one looks fun. 4 undefeated Power teams, but the committee did not drop #1 Ohio State far after their 2-point loss to Michigan. Of the other 3 teams, Oklahoma has the strongest resume and eye-test. Clemson edges Alabama on the resume, 'Bama the Tigers on the eyes. Georgia is a much bigger test than Pittsburgh, despite the similar rankings, so I would expect Clemson to be the odd-team out if it came down to it.

Navy is leading the G5 in the rankings, but a win over East Carolina (really?) won't put them in the club house yet. There is still the Army-Navy game. Western Michigan and Boise are looking for a piece of the action and there is a slight chance they'll still get it as a NY6 at large.

After 9-0 Oregon, the Pac-12 and its new divisionless structure was a traffic jam of 5 teams finishing 6-3. ASU was the only 3-1 team and beat the only other team (USC) with 1 loss. Early season losses by the Ducks to BYU (by 8) and Georgia (by 52) have likely doomed the Pac-12's hope for fielding a "Top 6" Champ.


Code:
WEEK: 0
24-54 // #74 Wyoming (0-1) @ #88 Illinois (1-0)
29-20 // #53 Nebraska (1-0) @ #86 Northwestern (0-1)
20-29 // #86 Northwestern (0-1) @ #53 Nebraska (1-0)
21-23 // #105 North Texas (0-1) @ #104 UTEP (1-0)
28-33 // #111 Vanderbilt (0-1) @ #92 Hawaii (1-0)
31-36 // #124 Charlotte (0-1) @ #93 FAU (1-0)
14-43 // #128 UConn (0-1) @ #62 Utah St (1-0)
32-14 // #65 Nevada (1-0) @ #129 New Mexico St (0-1)
13-26 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #71 Florida St (1-0)
7-68 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #46 North Carolina (1-0)
14-21 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #63 WKU (1-0)

WEEK: 1
14-38 // #5 Notre Dame (0-0) @ #1 Ohio St (0-0)
21-33 // #12 Cincinnati (0-0) @ #32 Arkansas (0-0)
20-17 // #46 Western Michigan (0-0) @ #16 Michigan St (0-0)
14-66 // #28 Oregon (0-0) @ #4 Georgia (0-0)
66-14 // #4 Georgia (0-0) @ #28 Oregon (0-0)
34-24 // #74 Florida St (1-0) @ #29 LSU (0-0)
24-34 // #29 LSU (0-0) @ #74 Florida St (1-0)
29-21 // #17 Utah (0-0) @ #31 Florida (0-0)
21-24 // #35 Louisville (0-0) @ #85 Syracuse (0-0)
34-21 // #9 Penn State (0-0) @ #38 Purdue (0-0)
17-14 // #115 Arizona (0-0) @ #39 San Diego St (0-0)
31-32 // #44 SMU (0-0) @ #110 North Texas (0-1)
31-33 // #48 West Virginia (0-0) @ #18 Pittsburgh (0-0)
31-24 // #42 North Carolina (1-0) @ #49 App St (0-0)
24-41 // #54 Central Michigan (0-0) @ #8 OK State (0-0)
24-37 // #56 Utah St (1-0) @ #2 Alabama (0-0)
66-10 // #22 Houston (0-0) @ #62 UTSA (0-0)
17-49 // #66 Miami(OH) (0-0) @ #25 Kentucky (0-0)
24-33 // #68 Memphis (0-0) @ #47 Mississippi St (0-0)
56-24 // #26 Boise St (0-0) @ #70 Oregon St (0-0)
21-24 // #72 Virginia Tech (0-0) @ #104 Old Dominion (0-0)
13-44 // #75 Illinois (1-0) @ #76 Indiana (0-0)
12-31 // #77 Georgia St (0-0) @ #58 South Carolina (0-0)
29-24 // #71 Army (0-0) @ #79 Coastal Carolina (0-0)
28-21 // #30 NC State (0-0) @ #81 East Carolina (0-0)
37-31 // #57 TCU (0-0) @ #84 Colorado (0-0)
26-24 // #64 Tulsa (0-0) @ #86 Wyoming (0-1)
48-27 // #67 WKU (1-0) @ #89 Hawaii (1-0)
21-34 // #90 Ball St (0-0) @ #43 Tennessee (0-0)
3-34 // #94 Georgia Tech (0-0) @ #6 Clemson (0-0)
34-3 // #6 Clemson (0-0) @ #94 Georgia Tech (0-0)
23-27 // #95 Rutgers (0-0) @ #69 Boston College (0-0)
24-34 // #96 Kent St (0-0) @ #78 Washington (0-0)
34-39 // #97 Troy (0-0) @ #19 Ole Miss (0-0)
28-27 // #131 UMass (0-0) @ #98 Tulane (0-0)
10-28 // #100 Buffalo (0-0) @ #45 Maryland (0-0)
14-45 // #103 UTEP (1-0) @ #3 Oklahoma (0-0)
41-28 // #20 BYU (0-0) @ #106 USF (0-0)
51-21 // #91 FAU (1-0) @ #107 Ohio (0-0)
14-62 // #108 Colorado St (0-0) @ #7 Michigan (0-0)
16-24 // #109 La Tech (0-0) @ #73 Missouri (0-0)
35-31 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #116 New Mexico (0-0)
28-35 // #117 Rice (0-0) @ #51 USC (0-0)
38-20 // #82 Liberty (0-0) @ #118 Southern Miss (0-0)
21-20 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #120 Arkansas St (0-0)
38-45 // #121 Texas St (0-0) @ #63 Nevada (1-0)
24-35 // #122 La Monroe (0-0) @ #15 Texas (0-0)
17-46 // #123 Temple (0-0) @ #112 Duke (0-0)
18-16 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #124 Charlotte (0-1)
31-57 // #125 Bowling Green (0-0) @ #53 UCLA (0-0)
23-10 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #128 UConn (0-1)
13-30 // #129 New Mexico St (0-1) @ #40 Minnesota (0-0)
27-40 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #113 Vanderbilt (0-1)
14-82 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #21 Auburn (0-0)
24-27 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #10 Texas A&M (0-0)
19-26 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #23 Wake Forest (0-0)
24-37 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #33 Miami (0-0)
21-44 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #55 Virginia (0-0)
13-20 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #11 Wisconsin (0-0)
13-64 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #13 Iowa (0-0)
28-30 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #50 Nebraska (1-0)
20-48 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #114 Kansas (0-0)
23-24 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #37 Kansas St (0-0)
14-65 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #24 Iowa St (0-0)
14-28 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #65 Texas Tech (0-0)
14-53 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #14 Baylor (0-0)
27-40 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #36 Arizona St (0-0)
17-41 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #92 California (0-0)
17-64 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #99 Stanford (0-0)
10-72 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #59 Washington St (0-0)
35-39 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #34 UCF (0-0)
28-43 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #87 Navy (0-0)
17-52 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #27 Air Force (0-0)
13-29 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #119 UNLV (0-0)
17-20 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #52 Fresno St (0-0)
13-47 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #101 San Jose St (0-0)
17-60 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #61 UAB (0-0)
17-42 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #80 Marshall (0-0)
17-38 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #130 FIU (0-0)
14-53 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #127 Akron (0-0)
17-30 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #88 Northern Illinois (0-0)
30-32 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #60 Toledo (0-0)
17-50 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #83 Eastern Michigan (0-0)
17-38 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #41 Louisiana (0-0)
24-34 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #111 South Alabama (0-0)
27-29 // #0 FCS (0-1) @ #105 Ga Southern (0-0)

WEEK: 2
31-14 // #2 Alabama (1-0) @ #16 Texas (1-0)
35-24 // #14 Baylor (1-0) @ #20 BYU (1-0)
24-33 // #21 Kentucky (1-0) @ #37 Florida (0-1)
28-31 // #25 Iowa St (1-0) @ #13 Iowa (1-0)
32-31 // #118 Southern Miss (0-1) @ #32 Miami (1-0)
24-50 // #34 Tennessee (1-0) @ #15 Pittsburgh (1-0)
28-30 // #35 Arizona St (1-0) @ #7 OK State (1-0)
24-59 // #43 South Carolina (1-0) @ #23 Arkansas (1-0)
21-61 // #47 Louisville (0-1) @ #36 UCF (1-0)
10-53 // #54 Washington St (1-0) @ #11 Wisconsin (1-0)
10-42 // #57 App St (0-1) @ #10 Texas A&M (1-0)
26-24 // #75 UTSA (0-1) @ #61 Army (1-0)
31-33 // #69 Missouri (1-0) @ #41 Kansas St (1-0)
32-17 // #17 Houston (1-0) @ #70 Texas Tech (1-0)
31-24 // #59 UAB (1-0) @ #73 Liberty (1-0)
17-74 // #74 Marshall (1-0) @ #8 Notre Dame (0-1)
23-26 // #77 Memphis (0-1) @ #86 Navy (1-0)
24-61 // #78 Eastern Michigan (1-0) @ #42 Louisiana (1-0)
36-27 // #53 Fresno St (1-0) @ #80 Oregon St (0-1)
41-27 // #33 North Carolina (2-0) @ #83 Georgia St (0-1)
28-24 // #66 Boston College (1-0) @ #84 Virginia Tech (0-1)
24-20 // #60 Virginia (1-0) @ #85 Illinois (1-1)
24-31 // #87 Northern Illinois (1-0) @ #52 Tulsa (1-0)
17-31 // #89 Colorado (0-1) @ #28 Air Force (1-0)
39-13 // #29 Western Michigan (1-0) @ #92 Ball St (0-1)
37-28 // #48 USC (1-0) @ #93 Stanford (1-0)
31-42 // #94 Middle Tennessee (1-0) @ #110 Colorado St (0-1)
27-43 // #95 Old Dominion (1-0) @ #81 East Carolina (0-1)
28-38 // #97 Hawaii (1-1) @ #6 Michigan (1-0)
17-38 // #99 San Jose St (1-0) @ #19 Auburn (1-0)
17-30 // #101 Kent St (0-1) @ #4 Oklahoma (1-0)
34-17 // #39 Mississippi St (1-0) @ #105 Arizona (1-0)
30-32 // #106 Duke (1-0) @ #90 Northwestern (0-1)
17-36 // #107 Ga Southern (1-0) @ #49 Nebraska (2-0)
14-75 // #112 Ohio (0-1) @ #9 Penn State (1-0)
28-35 // #113 Kansas (1-0) @ #51 West Virginia (0-1)
24-40 // #114 South Alabama (1-0) @ #64 Central Michigan (0-1)
39-14 // #26 Wake Forest (1-0) @ #115 Vanderbilt (1-1)
21-37 // #117 UNLV (1-0) @ #88 California (1-0)
20-17 // #22 Boise St (1-0) @ #123 New Mexico (0-1)
16-38 // #125 Akron (1-0) @ #30 Michigan St (0-1)
6-54 // #126 Arkansas St (0-1) @ #1 Ohio St (1-0)
36-26 // #40 Maryland (1-0) @ #127 Charlotte (0-2)
38-40 // #128 New Mexico St (0-2) @ #102 UTEP (1-1)
17-44 // #129 FIU (1-0) @ #119 Texas St (0-1)
7-70 // #130 UMass (1-0) @ #68 Toledo (1-0)
35-28 // #72 Syracuse (1-0) @ #131 UConn (0-2)
14-73 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #3 Georgia (1-0)
14-53 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #46 LSU (0-1)
14-55 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #18 Ole Miss (1-0)
17-32 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #5 Clemson (1-0)
14-33 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #27 NC State (1-0)
20-27 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #96 Georgia Tech (0-1)
17-68 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #100 Rutgers (0-1)
13-37 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #67 Indiana (1-0)
14-17 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #45 Purdue (0-1)
20-22 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #38 Minnesota (1-0)
14-70 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #50 TCU (1-0)
24-31 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #44 UCLA (1-0)
27-28 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #12 Utah (1-0)
14-17 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #31 Oregon (0-1)
17-71 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #71 Washington (1-0)
24-36 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #24 Cincinnati (0-1)
23-34 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #109 USF (0-1)
14-46 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #121 Temple (0-1)
16-29 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #63 SMU (0-1)
21-23 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #108 Tulane (0-1)
14-31 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #91 Wyoming (0-2)
14-68 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #62 Utah St (1-1)
28-38 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #55 San Diego St (0-1)
24-26 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #65 Nevada (2-0)
21-61 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #111 La Tech (0-1)
7-69 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #116 Rice (0-1)
7-30 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #104 North Texas (1-1)
21-29 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #79 FAU (2-0)
28-32 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #103 Buffalo (0-1)
34-40 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #122 Bowling Green (0-1)
7-47 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #76 Miami(OH) (0-1)
21-31 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #98 Troy (0-1)
7-63 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #120 La Monroe (0-1)
23-48 // #0 FCS (0-2) @ #82 Coastal Carolina (0-1)

WEEK: 3
34-35 // #3 Georgia (2-0) @ #62 South Carolina (1-1)
17-16 // #114 Texas St (1-1) @ #10 Baylor (2-0)
17-10 // #60 Miami (1-1) @ #11 Texas A&M (2-0)
33-28 // #9 Penn State (2-0) @ #16 Auburn (2-0)
24-27 // #19 Ole Miss (2-0) @ #92 Georgia Tech (1-1)
23-19 // #13 Pittsburgh (2-0) @ #26 Western Michigan (2-0)
20-27 // #34 Mississippi St (2-0) @ #43 LSU (1-1)
42-35 // #67 SMU (1-1) @ #37 Maryland (2-0)
21-13 // #24 BYU (1-1) @ #40 Oregon (1-1)
50-21 // #4 Oklahoma (2-0) @ #44 Nebraska (3-0)
28-31 // #50 Fresno St (2-0) @ #39 USC (2-0)
28-31 // #54 UTSA (1-1) @ #21 Texas (1-1)
28-38 // #58 Toledo (2-0) @ #1 Ohio St (2-0)
30-27 // #55 WKU (2-0) @ #59 Indiana (2-0)
23-34 // #61 Florida St (2-0) @ #76 Louisville (0-2)
13-36 // #63 Nevada (3-0) @ #12 Iowa (2-0)
28-24 // #27 Michigan St (1-1) @ #64 Washington (2-0)
35-36 // #65 San Diego St (1-1) @ #18 Utah (2-0)
63-14 // #48 Purdue (1-1) @ #69 Syracuse (2-0)
24-30 // #70 Texas Tech (1-1) @ #28 NC State (2-0)
17-34 // #74 Miami(OH) (1-1) @ #22 Cincinnati (1-1)
34-17 // #22 Cincinnati (1-1) @ #74 Miami(OH) (1-1)
26-29 // #77 Liberty (1-1) @ #23 Wake Forest (2-0)
14-7 // #33 UCF (2-0) @ #78 FAU (3-0)
23-41 // #79 California (2-0) @ #6 Notre Dame (1-1)
27-24 // #104 Buffalo (1-1) @ #81 Coastal Carolina (1-1)
14-16 // #83 Eastern Michigan (1-1) @ #41 Arizona St (1-1)
28-27 // #25 Air Force (2-0) @ #91 Wyoming (1-2)
14-69 // #94 Troy (1-1) @ #68 App St (0-2)
31-34 // #96 Colorado (0-2) @ #38 Minnesota (2-0)
21-36 // #97 UTEP (2-1) @ #124 New Mexico (0-2)
17-69 // #100 Colorado St (1-1) @ #66 Washington St (1-1)
17-20 // #103 Old Dominion (1-1) @ #52 Virginia (2-0)
10-65 // #107 La Tech (1-1) @ #8 Clemson (2-0)
14-62 // #109 USF (1-1) @ #29 Florida (1-1)
31-32 // #111 Tulane (1-1) @ #35 Kansas St (2-0)
35-14 // #36 Louisiana (2-0) @ #112 Rice (1-1)
24-27 // #113 Ga Southern (1-1) @ #45 UAB (2-0)
10-63 // #115 Kansas (1-1) @ #15 Houston (2-0)
20-35 // #116 La Monroe (1-1) @ #2 Alabama (2-0)
17-18 // #117 South Alabama (1-1) @ #53 UCLA (2-0)
9-28 // #118 Vanderbilt (1-2) @ #90 Northern Illinois (1-1)
35-24 // #85 Rutgers (1-1) @ #119 Temple (1-1)
28-35 // #120 Ohio (0-2) @ #31 Iowa St (1-1)
27-20 // #101 North Texas (2-1) @ #121 UNLV (1-1)
31-28 // #82 Marshall (1-1) @ #123 Bowling Green (1-1)
21-28 // #125 Akron (1-1) @ #42 Tennessee (1-1)
28-29 // #126 Arkansas St (0-2) @ #84 Memphis (0-2)
13-37 // #127 Charlotte (0-3) @ #88 Georgia St (0-2)
7-48 // #128 New Mexico St (0-3) @ #14 Wisconsin (2-0)
20-34 // #131 UConn (0-3) @ #7 Michigan (2-0)
7-58 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #30 Kentucky (1-1)
21-40 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #72 Missouri (1-1)
24-31 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #17 Arkansas (2-0)
16-37 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #51 Boston College (2-0)
21-24 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #89 Virginia Tech (0-2)
7-74 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #110 Duke (1-1)
17-44 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #80 Northwestern (1-1)
12-47 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #49 West Virginia (1-1)
17-39 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #5 OK State (2-0)
31-32 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #108 Arizona (1-1)
6-34 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #87 Oregon St (0-2)
16-55 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #75 East Carolina (1-1)
16-53 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #47 Tulsa (2-0)
31-34 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #20 Boise St (2-0)
31-38 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #93 Hawaii (1-2)
24-27 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #106 Southern Miss (1-1)
14-57 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #105 Middle Tennessee (1-1)
27-49 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #71 Army (1-1)
28-29 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #130 UMass (1-1)
35-38 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #102 Kent St (0-2)
14-69 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #56 Central Michigan (1-1)
14-76 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #99 Ball St (0-2)

WEEK: 4
20-23 // #5 Notre Dame (2-1) @ #24 North Carolina (3-0)
28-29 // #12 Wisconsin (3-0) @ #1 Ohio St (3-0)
24-27 // #14 Utah (3-0) @ #42 Arizona St (2-1)
24-21 // #18 Texas A&M (2-1) @ #15 Arkansas (3-0)
21-24 // #15 Arkansas (3-0) @ #18 Texas A&M (2-1)
30-27 // #6 Clemson (3-0) @ #19 Wake Forest (3-0)
28-29 // #21 Baylor (2-1) @ #31 Iowa St (2-1)
32-31 // #102 Wyoming (1-3) @ #25 BYU (2-1)
20-23 // #29 Boise St (3-0) @ #109 UTEP (2-2)
17-28 // #34 USC (3-0) @ #87 Oregon St (1-2)
24-29 // #35 Kansas St (3-0) @ #3 Oklahoma (3-0)
27-32 // #40 Minnesota (3-0) @ #20 Michigan St (2-1)
39-35 // #26 Florida (2-1) @ #44 Tennessee (2-1)
9-20 // #45 Tulsa (3-0) @ #39 Ole Miss (2-1)
17-19 // #52 Boston College (3-0) @ #69 Florida St (2-1)
28-44 // #54 Maryland (2-1) @ #10 Michigan (3-0)
24-20 // #49 TCU (2-0) @ #55 SMU (2-1)
24-29 // #56 Central Michigan (2-1) @ #4 Penn State (3-0)
29-24 // #62 Oregon (1-2) @ #57 Washington St (2-1)
21-61 // #60 Toledo (2-1) @ #74 San Diego St (1-2)
34-31 // #111 USF (1-2) @ #63 Louisville (1-2)
21-42 // #66 Nevada (3-1) @ #28 Air Force (3-0)
12-30 // #67 Indiana (2-1) @ #22 Cincinnati (2-1)
63-13 // #70 Navy (2-0) @ #71 East Carolina (2-1)
21-29 // #72 Missouri (2-1) @ #17 Auburn (2-1)
17-69 // #73 Georgia Tech (2-1) @ #27 UCF (3-0)
29-20 // #16 Texas (2-1) @ #75 Texas Tech (1-2)
39-24 // #47 Virginia (3-0) @ #78 Syracuse (2-1)
13-22 // #79 Miami(OH) (1-2) @ #76 Northwestern (2-1)
14-48 // #81 FAU (3-1) @ #37 Purdue (2-1)
28-31 // #83 Northern Illinois (2-1) @ #30 Kentucky (2-1)
19-17 // #11 Iowa (3-0) @ #84 Rutgers (2-1)
35-41 // #89 Buffalo (2-1) @ #90 Eastern Michigan (1-2)
21-24 // #91 North Texas (3-1) @ #86 Memphis (1-2)
31-50 // #94 Stanford (1-1) @ #68 Washington (2-1)
37-28 // #50 West Virginia (2-1) @ #95 Virginia Tech (1-2)
17-18 // #96 Coastal Carolina (1-2) @ #85 Georgia St (1-2)
31-28 // #32 Western Michigan (2-1) @ #98 San Jose St (1-1)
28-35 // #99 Middle Tennessee (2-1) @ #43 Miami (2-1)
28-39 // #101 Kent St (1-2) @ #8 Georgia (2-1)
23-16 // #51 UCLA (3-0) @ #103 Colorado (0-3)
22-21 // #77 Marshall (2-1) @ #104 Troy (1-2)
28-63 // #105 Arizona (2-1) @ #80 California (2-1)
31-28 // #92 Ball St (1-2) @ #110 Ga Southern (1-2)
21-28 // #113 Rice (1-2) @ #13 Houston (3-0)
27-24 // #100 Duke (2-1) @ #114 Kansas (1-2)
34-28 // #106 Southern Miss (2-1) @ #115 Tulane (1-2)
29-20 // #33 Louisiana (3-0) @ #116 La Monroe (1-2)
34-24 // #112 La Tech (1-2) @ #117 South Alabama (1-2)
14-65 // #119 New Mexico (1-2) @ #36 LSU (2-1)
23-24 // #120 Vanderbilt (1-3) @ #2 Alabama (3-0)
28-39 // #121 James Madison (0-1) @ #59 App St (1-2)
31-36 // #122 UNLV (1-2) @ #58 Utah St (2-1)
13-57 // #124 Bowling Green (1-2) @ #48 Mississippi St (2-1)
28-32 // #125 Akron (1-2) @ #82 Liberty (1-2)
13-14 // #126 Arkansas St (0-3) @ #107 Old Dominion (1-2)
24-28 // #127 FIU (1-1) @ #46 WKU (3-0)
24-31 // #128 UMass (2-1) @ #123 Temple (1-2)
24-37 // #129 Charlotte (0-4) @ #38 South Carolina (2-1)
42-31 // #97 Hawaii (2-2) @ #130 New Mexico St (0-4)
35-36 // #131 UConn (0-4) @ #23 NC State (3-0)
14-34 // #0 FCS (0-4) @ #9 Pittsburgh (3-0)
24-51 // #0 FCS (0-4) @ #88 Illinois (1-2)
24-32 // #0 FCS (0-4) @ #108 Colorado St (1-2)
28-43 // #0 FCS (0-4) @ #64 UTSA (1-2)
20-45 // #0 FCS (0-4) @ #118 Ohio (0-3)
7-79 // #0 FCS (0-4) @ #93 Texas St (2-1)

WEEK: 5
38-24 // #6 Michigan (4-0) @ #7 Iowa (4-0)
40-35 // #44 West Virginia (3-1) @ #18 Texas (3-1)
29-28 // #47 Navy (3-0) @ #21 Air Force (4-0)
36-13 // #2 Alabama (4-0) @ #24 Arkansas (3-1)
31-34 // #25 Cincinnati (3-1) @ #57 Tulsa (3-1)
14-42 // #31 Purdue (3-1) @ #50 Minnesota (3-1)
28-32 // #32 LSU (3-1) @ #16 Auburn (3-1)
21-23 // #33 NC State (4-0) @ #5 Clemson (4-0)
28-21 // #26 Kentucky (3-1) @ #34 Ole Miss (3-1)
32-31 // #8 OK State (3-0) @ #36 Baylor (2-2)
69-21 // #3 Oklahoma (4-0) @ #37 TCU (3-0)
31-14 // #15 Texas A&M (3-1) @ #40 Mississippi St (3-1)
31-20 // #55 Washington (3-1) @ #43 UCLA (4-0)
28-27 // #73 Indiana (2-2) @ #48 Nebraska (3-1)
30-21 // #30 Arizona St (3-1) @ #52 USC (3-1)
13-22 // #56 Utah St (3-1) @ #46 BYU (2-2)
26-24 // #29 Wake Forest (3-1) @ #58 Florida St (3-1)
16-28 // #60 San Diego St (2-2) @ #49 Boise St (3-1)
37-21 // #17 Michigan St (3-1) @ #61 Maryland (2-2)
14-46 // #62 Northwestern (3-1) @ #4 Penn State (4-0)
42-21 // #82 Louisville (1-3) @ #64 Boston College (3-1)
13-32 // #65 SMU (2-2) @ #20 UCF (4-0)
14-17 // #68 California (3-1) @ #67 Washington St (2-2)
27-24 // #118 Temple (2-2) @ #72 Memphis (2-2)
20-17 // #59 Central Michigan (2-2) @ #74 Toledo (2-2)
23-28 // #75 Oregon St (2-2) @ #28 Utah (3-1)
51-27 // #9 Georgia (3-1) @ #76 Missouri (2-2)
7-38 // #77 Georgia St (2-2) @ #69 Army (2-1)
28-32 // #81 Georgia Tech (2-2) @ #10 Pittsburgh (4-0)
10-55 // #83 Texas Tech (1-3) @ #45 Kansas St (3-1)
20-40 // #85 Rutgers (2-2) @ #1 Ohio St (4-0)
31-24 // #39 Virginia (4-0) @ #86 Duke (3-1)
10-76 // #87 Illinois (2-2) @ #14 Wisconsin (3-1)
15-14 // #92 Northern Illinois (2-2) @ #88 Ball St (2-2)
31-39 // #94 UTEP (3-2) @ #129 Charlotte (0-5)
31-38 // #95 Miami(OH) (1-3) @ #101 Buffalo (2-2)
29-21 // #90 FAU (3-2) @ #97 North Texas (3-2)
31-39 // #98 San Jose St (1-2) @ #84 Wyoming (2-3)
35-21 // #114 Ohio (1-3) @ #99 Kent St (1-3)
49-24 // #89 East Carolina (2-2) @ #100 USF (2-2)
24-31 // #102 Stanford (1-2) @ #53 Oregon (2-2)
23-20 // #78 Liberty (2-2) @ #104 Old Dominion (2-2)
48-16 // #66 UTSA (2-2) @ #105 Middle Tennessee (2-2)
38-54 // #106 Virginia Tech (1-3) @ #12 North Carolina (4-0)
24-20 // #109 Colorado (0-4) @ #110 Arizona (2-2)
24-40 // #111 Troy (1-3) @ #42 WKU (4-0)
42-28 // #41 UAB (3-0) @ #112 Rice (1-3)
31-41 // #113 La Monroe (1-3) @ #127 Arkansas St (0-4)
10-39 // #115 Ga Southern (1-3) @ #108 Coastal Carolina (1-3)
32-31 // #23 Iowa St (3-1) @ #116 Kansas (1-3)
30-33 // #119 Tulane (1-3) @ #11 Houston (4-0)
28-32 // #120 South Alabama (1-3) @ #22 Louisiana (4-0)
31-34 // #121 New Mexico (1-3) @ #123 UNLV (1-3)
27-31 // #125 Bowling Green (1-3) @ #124 Akron (1-3)
24-27 // #128 UMass (2-2) @ #79 Eastern Michigan (2-2)
29-10 // #126 FIU (1-2) @ #130 New Mexico St (0-5)
26-21 // #63 Fresno St (2-1) @ #131 UConn (0-5)
23-29 // #0 FCS (0-5) @ #19 Florida (3-1)
14-45 // #0 FCS (0-5) @ #35 South Carolina (3-1)
28-30 // #0 FCS (0-5) @ #91 Syracuse (2-2)
24-27 // #0 FCS (0-5) @ #71 Marshall (3-1)
17-31 // #0 FCS (0-5) @ #27 Western Michigan (3-1)
16-35 // #0 FCS (0-5) @ #54 App St (2-2)

WEEK: 6
21-35 // #11 North Carolina (5-0) @ #42 Miami (3-1)
21-72 // #13 Auburn (4-1) @ #9 Georgia (4-1)
20-30 // #15 Texas A&M (4-1) @ #2 Alabama (5-0)
24-23 // #1 Ohio St (5-0) @ #16 Michigan St (4-1)
28-35 // #29 Kansas St (4-1) @ #23 Iowa St (4-1)
27-29 // #30 Texas (3-2) @ #3 Oklahoma (5-0)
29-27 // #3 Oklahoma (5-0) @ #30 Texas (3-2)
33-21 // #73 Louisville (2-3) @ #31 Virginia (5-0)
17-18 // #33 Air Force (4-1) @ #63 Utah St (3-2)
34-31 // #109 Middle Tennessee (2-3) @ #34 UAB (4-0)
17-48 // #36 South Carolina (4-1) @ #19 Kentucky (4-1)
35-42 // #38 Tulsa (4-1) @ #24 Navy (4-0)
28-39 // #39 BYU (3-2) @ #18 Notre Dame (2-2)
39-28 // #18 Notre Dame (2-2) @ #39 BYU (3-2)
15-14 // #62 Florida St (3-2) @ #40 NC State (4-1)
33-28 // #56 Tennessee (2-2) @ #43 LSU (3-2)
24-27 // #44 Washington (4-1) @ #22 Arizona St (4-1)
10-41 // #48 Army (3-1) @ #25 Wake Forest (4-1)
14-36 // #50 Purdue (3-2) @ #68 Maryland (2-3)
44-20 // #27 Arkansas (3-2) @ #54 Mississippi St (3-2)
10-24 // #55 Washington St (3-2) @ #61 USC (3-2)
27-24 // #37 WKU (5-0) @ #57 UTSA (3-2)
45-17 // #5 Michigan (5-0) @ #58 Indiana (3-2)
26-24 // #26 Utah (4-1) @ #59 UCLA (4-1)
20-21 // #64 Fresno St (3-1) @ #46 Boise St (4-1)
39-28 // #53 App St (3-2) @ #65 Texas St (4-1)
38-24 // #10 Wisconsin (4-1) @ #67 Northwestern (3-2)
3-29 // #76 Missouri (2-3) @ #21 Florida (4-1)
10-28 // #77 Eastern Michigan (3-2) @ #28 Western Michigan (4-1)
35-28 // #6 Clemson (5-0) @ #81 Boston College (3-2)
44-21 // #60 Nebraska (3-2) @ #83 Rutgers (2-3)
7-39 // #85 Toledo (2-3) @ #71 Northern Illinois (3-2)
30-33 // #90 Hawaii (3-2) @ #80 San Diego St (2-3)
21-30 // #92 Duke (3-2) @ #82 Georgia Tech (2-3)
28-21 // #12 Houston (5-0) @ #93 Memphis (2-3)
47-17 // #17 Iowa (4-1) @ #94 Illinois (2-3)
12-19 // #95 Ball St (2-3) @ #49 Central Michigan (3-2)
35-14 // #107 UTEP (3-3) @ #96 La Tech (2-2)
21-47 // #98 Texas Tech (1-4) @ #7 OK State (4-0)
17-24 // #101 Colorado St (2-2) @ #72 Nevada (3-2)
20-26 // #103 USF (2-3) @ #41 Cincinnati (3-2)
39-24 // #84 Oregon St (2-3) @ #105 Stanford (1-3)
34-28 // #111 Kent St (1-4) @ #108 Miami(OH) (1-4)
28-32 // #110 Virginia Tech (1-4) @ #8 Pittsburgh (5-0)
39-31 // #52 Oregon (3-2) @ #113 Arizona (2-3)
24-21 // #88 Southern Miss (3-1) @ #114 Troy (1-4)
47-24 // #51 TCU (3-1) @ #115 Kansas (1-4)
52-35 // #45 Ole Miss (3-2) @ #116 Vanderbilt (1-4)
27-30 // #117 UNLV (2-3) @ #106 San Jose St (1-3)
35-17 // #69 East Carolina (3-2) @ #118 Tulane (1-4)
21-43 // #119 Akron (2-3) @ #99 Ohio (2-3)
34-17 // #91 Coastal Carolina (2-3) @ #120 La Monroe (1-4)
31-28 // #130 UConn (0-6) @ #122 FIU (2-2)
21-44 // #123 Ga Southern (1-4) @ #87 Georgia St (2-3)
28-37 // #124 James Madison (0-3) @ #125 Arkansas St (1-4)
31-40 // #127 New Mexico (1-4) @ #75 Wyoming (3-3)
34-21 // #89 Buffalo (3-2) @ #128 Bowling Green (1-4)
59-10 // #66 Liberty (3-2) @ #129 UMass (2-3)

WEEK: 7
24-27 // #4 Penn State (5-0) @ #5 Michigan (6-0)
27-24 // #10 Wisconsin (5-1) @ #16 Michigan St (4-2)
31-27 // #57 LSU (3-3) @ #19 Florida (5-1)
23-28 // #21 Iowa St (5-1) @ #34 Texas (3-3)
37-28 // #53 USC (4-2) @ #24 Utah (5-1)
31-32 // #25 Louisiana (5-0) @ #78 Marshall (4-1)
21-60 // #27 Arkansas (4-2) @ #47 BYU (3-3)
31-10 // #44 Baylor (2-3) @ #31 West Virginia (4-1)
54-14 // #7 OK State (5-0) @ #35 TCU (4-1)
22-21 // #26 Auburn (4-2) @ #37 Ole Miss (4-2)
23-20 // #2 Alabama (6-0) @ #39 Tennessee (3-2)
51-20 // #6 Clemson (6-0) @ #46 Florida St (4-2)
21-22 // #50 Utah St (4-2) @ #107 Colorado St (2-3)
17-26 // #58 Northern Illinois (4-2) @ #84 Eastern Michigan (3-3)
28-17 // #55 Nebraska (4-2) @ #62 Purdue (3-3)
24-16 // #54 Maryland (3-3) @ #63 Indiana (3-3)
28-41 // #67 Mississippi St (3-3) @ #13 Kentucky (5-1)
34-27 // #70 Washington St (3-3) @ #73 Oregon St (3-3)
47-28 // #115 Arkansas St (2-4) @ #77 Southern Miss (4-1)
27-40 // #80 California (3-2) @ #103 Colorado (1-4)
36-35 // #22 Navy (5-0) @ #82 SMU (2-3)
48-28 // #56 NC State (4-2) @ #86 Syracuse (3-2)
7-49 // #90 Ohio (3-3) @ #28 Western Michigan (5-1)
23-30 // #91 Memphis (2-4) @ #65 East Carolina (4-2)
31-9 // #30 WKU (6-0) @ #92 Middle Tennessee (3-3)
48-21 // #68 Nevada (4-2) @ #94 Hawaii (3-3)
23-20 // #23 North Carolina (5-1) @ #95 Duke (3-3)
32-21 // #33 Minnesota (4-1) @ #96 Illinois (2-4)
17-56 // #98 Kent St (2-4) @ #97 Toledo (2-4)
24-26 // #99 San Jose St (2-3) @ #76 Fresno St (3-2)
17-36 // #104 Temple (3-2) @ #14 UCF (5-0)
7-33 // #105 Old Dominion (2-3) @ #87 Coastal Carolina (3-3)
35-38 // #108 Rice (1-4) @ #71 FAU (4-2)
26-23 // #29 Miami (4-1) @ #109 Virginia Tech (1-5)
21-26 // #110 La Tech (2-3) @ #101 North Texas (3-3)
9-37 // #111 Stanford (1-4) @ #15 Notre Dame (3-2)
21-62 // #112 Vanderbilt (1-5) @ #8 Georgia (5-1)
14-24 // #113 Arizona (2-4) @ #49 Washington (4-2)
17-43 // #114 Miami(OH) (1-5) @ #129 Bowling Green (1-5)
14-53 // #116 Kansas (1-5) @ #3 Oklahoma (6-0)
26-17 // #79 Texas St (4-2) @ #117 Troy (1-5)
30-17 // #43 Air Force (4-2) @ #119 UNLV (2-4)
34-19 // #38 Central Michigan (4-2) @ #120 Akron (2-4)
10-20 // #121 La Monroe (1-5) @ #118 South Alabama (1-4)
21-45 // #122 Tulane (1-5) @ #106 USF (2-4)
17-21 // #124 Charlotte (1-5) @ #51 UAB (4-1)
17-59 // #125 James Madison (0-4) @ #123 Ga Southern (1-5)
73-0 // #64 UTSA (3-3) @ #126 FIU (2-3)
17-20 // #128 UConn (1-6) @ #100 Ball St (2-4)
59-17 // #85 Buffalo (4-2) @ #130 UMass (2-4)
43-20 // #127 New Mexico (1-5) @ #131 New Mexico St (0-6)
21-40 // #0 FCS (0-7) @ #60 Army (3-2)
24-28 // #0 FCS (0-7) @ #59 Liberty (4-2)

WEEK: 8
17-24 // #10 Pittsburgh (6-0) @ #63 Louisville (3-3)
7-72 // #11 Iowa (5-1) @ #1 Ohio St (6-0)
10-29 // #12 UCF (6-0) @ #59 East Carolina (5-2)
21-35 // #15 Houston (6-0) @ #13 Navy (6-0)
20-22 // #19 Arizona St (5-1) @ #111 Stanford (1-5)
6-35 // #28 Texas (4-3) @ #5 OK State (6-0)
30-33 // #29 Minnesota (5-1) @ #7 Penn State (5-1)
27-24 // #35 Boise St (5-1) @ #39 Air Force (5-2)
41-13 // #23 Texas A&M (4-2) @ #40 South Carolina (4-2)
29-26 // #56 Ole Miss (4-3) @ #41 LSU (4-3)
24-17 // #52 Kansas St (4-2) @ #49 TCU (4-2)
20-27 // #51 UAB (5-1) @ #24 WKU (7-0)
36-34 // #79 San Diego St (3-3) @ #58 Nevada (5-2)
28-32 // #64 FAU (5-2) @ #93 UTEP (4-3)
73-10 // #32 BYU (4-3) @ #65 Liberty (5-2)
27-36 // #67 UCLA (4-2) @ #53 Oregon (4-2)
38-16 // #55 Virginia (5-1) @ #69 Georgia Tech (3-3)
3-29 // #70 Utah St (4-3) @ #74 Wyoming (4-3)
24-26 // #72 Northern Illinois (4-3) @ #98 Ohio (3-4)
3-34 // #73 Indiana (3-4) @ #85 Rutgers (2-4)
17-34 // #75 Northwestern (3-3) @ #43 Maryland (4-3)
20-21 // #76 Purdue (3-4) @ #8 Wisconsin (6-1)
21-51 // #77 Mississippi St (3-4) @ #3 Alabama (7-0)
32-31 // #86 Toledo (3-4) @ #78 Buffalo (5-2)
20-23 // #80 Georgia St (3-3) @ #45 App St (4-2)
14-40 // #82 Boston College (3-3) @ #21 Wake Forest (5-1)
20-19 // #50 Cincinnati (4-2) @ #84 SMU (2-4)
17-19 // #89 Colorado (2-4) @ #83 Oregon St (3-4)
28-12 // #46 Washington (5-2) @ #90 California (3-3)
34-39 // #91 Southern Miss (4-2) @ #66 Texas St (5-2)
38-39 // #92 Syracuse (3-3) @ #6 Clemson (7-0)
20-21 // #94 North Texas (4-3) @ #60 UTSA (4-3)
31-28 // #68 Eastern Michigan (4-3) @ #96 Ball St (3-4)
13-67 // #99 Duke (3-4) @ #25 Miami (5-1)
54-6 // #47 West Virginia (4-2) @ #102 Texas Tech (1-5)
26-17 // #48 Tulsa (4-2) @ #103 Temple (3-3)
28-39 // #104 Hawaii (3-4) @ #88 Colorado St (3-3)
17-34 // #106 Arkansas St (3-4) @ #36 Louisiana (5-1)
28-31 // #108 Rice (1-5) @ #114 La Tech (2-4)
14-36 // #113 Ga Southern (2-5) @ #107 Old Dominion (2-4)
31-34 // #116 Akron (2-5) @ #110 Kent St (2-5)
28-31 // #117 UNLV (2-5) @ #14 Notre Dame (4-2)
14-42 // #118 Vanderbilt (1-6) @ #87 Missouri (2-4)
28-31 // #119 Kansas (1-6) @ #31 Baylor (3-3)
31-32 // #120 Troy (1-6) @ #109 South Alabama (2-4)
34-31 // #71 Fresno St (4-2) @ #121 New Mexico (2-5)
7-43 // #122 Bowling Green (2-5) @ #30 Central Michigan (5-2)
23-24 // #123 La Monroe (1-6) @ #61 Army (4-2)
28-23 // #18 Western Michigan (6-1) @ #125 Miami(OH) (1-6)
34-31 // #101 Memphis (2-5) @ #126 Tulane (1-6)
21-51 // #127 FIU (2-4) @ #124 Charlotte (1-6)
27-20 // #105 San Jose St (2-4) @ #131 New Mexico St (0-7)
13-16 // #0 FCS (0-8) @ #42 Tennessee (3-3)

WEEK: 9
36-31 // #1 Ohio St (7-0) @ #7 Penn State (6-1)
21-32 // #14 Kentucky (6-1) @ #55 Tennessee (4-3)
21-54 // #18 Michigan St (4-3) @ #4 Michigan (7-0)
35-39 // #19 Miami (6-1) @ #45 Virginia (6-1)
35-34 // #98 North Texas (4-4) @ #20 WKU (8-0)
17-37 // #22 Pittsburgh (6-1) @ #13 North Carolina (6-1)
17-14 // #31 East Carolina (6-2) @ #26 BYU (5-3)
20-21 // #28 Arizona St (5-2) @ #102 Colorado (2-5)
44-14 // #10 Georgia (6-1) @ #29 Florida (5-2)
14-44 // #29 Florida (5-2) @ #10 Georgia (6-1)
34-10 // #5 Oklahoma (7-0) @ #30 Iowa St (5-2)
27-29 // #34 Arkansas (4-3) @ #17 Auburn (5-2)
38-17 // #3 OK State (7-0) @ #42 Kansas St (5-2)
28-42 // #47 Cincinnati (5-2) @ #24 UCF (6-1)
17-10 // #15 Wake Forest (6-1) @ #49 Louisville (4-3)
28-35 // #50 Ole Miss (5-3) @ #12 Texas A&M (5-2)
31-28 // #33 Utah (5-2) @ #59 Washington St (4-3)
31-44 // #63 UAB (5-2) @ #77 FAU (5-3)
17-39 // #65 TCU (4-3) @ #46 West Virginia (5-2)
51-14 // #67 San Diego St (4-3) @ #66 Fresno St (5-2)
21-32 // #69 Rutgers (3-4) @ #44 Minnesota (5-2)
14-54 // #72 Georgia Tech (3-4) @ #61 Florida St (4-3)
23-33 // #74 Toledo (4-4) @ #64 Eastern Michigan (5-3)
30-27 // #95 Stanford (2-5) @ #75 UCLA (4-3)
28-51 // #80 Colorado St (4-3) @ #25 Boise St (6-1)
20-37 // #81 Coastal Carolina (4-3) @ #52 Marshall (6-1)
28-35 // #83 Missouri (3-4) @ #53 South Carolina (4-3)
24-31 // #85 Northwestern (3-4) @ #16 Iowa (5-2)
24-30 // #90 USF (3-4) @ #23 Houston (6-1)
21-22 // #91 SMU (2-5) @ #39 Tulsa (5-2)
30-27 // #11 Notre Dame (5-2) @ #93 Syracuse (3-4)
20-23 // #94 Middle Tennessee (3-4) @ #76 UTEP (5-3)
28-21 // #38 Louisiana (6-1) @ #96 Southern Miss (4-3)
39-0 // #36 Oregon (5-2) @ #97 California (3-4)
7-62 // #99 Old Dominion (3-4) @ #87 Georgia St (3-4)
33-28 // #70 Nevada (5-3) @ #100 San Jose St (3-4)
27-32 // #101 Illinois (2-5) @ #48 Nebraska (5-2)
27-28 // #104 Temple (3-4) @ #8 Navy (7-0)
34-17 // #108 South Alabama (3-4) @ #109 Arkansas St (3-5)
37-21 // #60 Wyoming (5-3) @ #110 Hawaii (3-5)
21-14 // #32 Baylor (4-3) @ #111 Texas Tech (1-6)
20-21 // #112 Virginia Tech (1-6) @ #51 NC State (5-2)
21-20 // #40 USC (5-2) @ #113 Arizona (2-5)
17-32 // #115 Charlotte (2-6) @ #114 Rice (1-6)
29-21 // #125 Miami(OH) (1-7) @ #120 Akron (2-6)
32-23 // #106 La Tech (3-4) @ #128 FIU (2-5)
24-17 // #86 Boston College (3-4) @ #130 UConn (1-7)
24-58 // #131 New Mexico St (0-8) @ #129 UMass (2-5)
24-32 // #0 FCS (0-9) @ #37 App St (5-2)

WEEK: 10
20-23 // #11 North Carolina (7-1) @ #28 Virginia (7-1)
35-14 // #6 Clemson (8-0) @ #13 Notre Dame (6-2)
38-30 // #33 Florida (5-3) @ #14 Texas A&M (6-2)
20-27 // #15 UCF (7-1) @ #95 Memphis (3-5)
24-31 // #17 Iowa (6-2) @ #71 Purdue (3-5)
28-32 // #19 Houston (7-1) @ #96 SMU (2-6)
21-24 // #25 Central Michigan (6-2) @ #84 Northern Illinois (4-4)
31-38 // #31 Baylor (5-3) @ #4 Oklahoma (8-0)
24-23 // #127 Tulane (1-7) @ #32 Tulsa (6-2)
24-27 // #34 Marshall (7-1) @ #109 Old Dominion (3-5)
30-32 // #35 Minnesota (6-2) @ #45 Nebraska (6-2)
24-27 // #36 BYU (5-4) @ #18 Boise St (7-1)
30-27 // #38 West Virginia (6-2) @ #40 Iowa St (5-3)
6-63 // #41 Tennessee (5-3) @ #8 Georgia (7-1)
38-31 // #12 Wake Forest (7-1) @ #44 NC State (6-2)
24-32 // #47 Florida St (5-3) @ #24 Miami (6-2)
14-69 // #48 Maryland (5-3) @ #10 Wisconsin (7-1)
37-28 // #42 Texas (4-4) @ #53 Kansas St (5-3)
17-20 // #57 Army (5-2) @ #51 Air Force (5-3)
20-17 // #51 Air Force (5-3) @ #57 Army (5-2)
48-17 // #7 Navy (8-0) @ #59 Cincinnati (5-3)
60-21 // #5 Alabama (8-0) @ #63 LSU (4-4)
16-26 // #66 UTEP (6-3) @ #107 Rice (2-6)
28-29 // #70 Oregon St (4-4) @ #50 Washington (6-2)
23-20 // #56 UTSA (5-3) @ #73 UAB (5-3)
24-27 // #75 Liberty (5-3) @ #52 Arkansas (4-4)
17-10 // #16 Auburn (6-2) @ #77 Mississippi St (3-5)
14-44 // #79 Georgia Tech (3-5) @ #114 Virginia Tech (1-7)
46-35 // #2 Michigan (8-0) @ #80 Rutgers (3-5)
33-17 // #67 Washington St (4-4) @ #82 Stanford (3-5)
31-32 // #83 Colorado St (4-4) @ #108 San Jose St (3-5)
28-35 // #85 Buffalo (5-3) @ #87 Ohio (4-4)
31-10 // #9 Penn State (6-2) @ #86 Indiana (3-5)
21-62 // #88 UCLA (4-4) @ #49 Arizona St (5-3)
27-24 // #37 App St (6-2) @ #89 Coastal Carolina (4-4)
31-28 // #1 Ohio St (8-0) @ #90 Northwestern (3-5)
21-9 // #26 Kentucky (6-2) @ #91 Missouri (3-5)
48-24 // #30 Oregon (6-2) @ #92 Colorado (3-5)
28-30 // #93 USF (3-5) @ #101 Temple (3-5)
31-41 // #94 Syracuse (3-5) @ #23 Pittsburgh (6-2)
28-29 // #97 South Alabama (4-4) @ #117 Ga Southern (2-6)
26-3 // #68 Georgia St (4-4) @ #99 Southern Miss (4-4)
23-33 // #100 Middle Tennessee (3-5) @ #98 La Tech (4-4)
31-36 // #102 California (3-5) @ #43 USC (6-2)
10-53 // #104 Duke (3-5) @ #78 Boston College (4-4)
31-17 // #103 Ball St (3-5) @ #105 Kent St (3-5)
22-10 // #22 Michigan St (4-4) @ #106 Illinois (2-6)
24-33 // #110 Arizona (2-6) @ #27 Utah (6-2)
28-50 // #111 Hawaii (3-6) @ #72 Fresno St (5-3)
21-55 // #112 Texas Tech (1-7) @ #69 TCU (4-4)
28-39 // #115 UNLV (2-6) @ #62 San Diego St (5-3)
41-24 // #3 OK State (8-0) @ #116 Kansas (1-7)
24-31 // #118 New Mexico (2-6) @ #74 Utah St (4-4)
35-14 // #39 WKU (8-1) @ #119 Charlotte (2-7)
31-28 // #46 South Carolina (5-3) @ #120 Vanderbilt (1-7)
28-27 // #61 Texas St (6-2) @ #121 La Monroe (1-7)
31-32 // #123 Troy (1-7) @ #29 Louisiana (7-1)
20-16 // #20 Western Michigan (7-1) @ #124 Bowling Green (2-6)
24-32 // #125 UMass (3-5) @ #129 UConn (1-8)
30-32 // #128 James Madison (0-6) @ #54 Louisville (4-4)
27-34 // #130 FIU (2-6) @ #76 North Texas (5-4)

WEEK: 11
24-27 // #7 Navy (9-0) @ #15 Notre Dame (6-3)
27-24 // #15 Notre Dame (6-3) @ #7 Navy (9-0)
23-35 // #8 Wisconsin (8-1) @ #27 Iowa (6-3)
22-16 // #14 North Carolina (7-2) @ #11 Wake Forest (8-1)
36-31 // #22 Pittsburgh (7-2) @ #17 Virginia (8-1)
7-21 // #19 Texas A&M (6-3) @ #12 Auburn (7-2)
24-46 // #20 East Carolina (7-2) @ #67 Cincinnati (5-4)
35-28 // #3 Oklahoma (9-0) @ #25 West Virginia (7-2)
27-29 // #29 Nebraska (7-2) @ #2 Michigan (9-0)
31-34 // #31 App St (7-2) @ #61 Marshall (7-2)
16-13 // #100 Colorado (3-6) @ #34 USC (7-2)
23-35 // #37 Arizona St (6-3) @ #59 Washington St (5-4)
27-30 // #39 South Carolina (6-3) @ #24 Florida (6-3)
24-29 // #41 Washington (7-2) @ #30 Oregon (7-2)
32-28 // #68 LSU (4-5) @ #42 Arkansas (5-4)
27-21 // #90 Missouri (3-6) @ #44 Tennessee (5-4)
17-38 // #49 Louisville (5-4) @ #4 Clemson (9-0)
24-27 // #50 Iowa St (5-4) @ #5 OK State (9-0)
31-34 // #51 Texas St (7-2) @ #107 South Alabama (4-5)
21-50 // #53 Maryland (5-4) @ #10 Penn State (7-2)
13-18 // #55 Tulsa (6-3) @ #74 Memphis (4-5)
20-23 // #58 Wyoming (6-3) @ #92 Colorado St (4-5)
31-32 // #60 Purdue (4-5) @ #103 Illinois (2-7)
31-33 // #62 Kansas St (5-4) @ #40 Baylor (5-4)
39-27 // #6 Alabama (9-0) @ #64 Ole Miss (5-4)
59-17 // #13 Boise St (8-1) @ #65 Nevada (6-3)
21-41 // #66 TCU (5-4) @ #28 Texas (5-4)
3-44 // #69 Boston College (5-4) @ #43 NC State (6-3)
17-49 // #72 Northern Illinois (5-4) @ #16 Western Michigan (8-1)
31-32 // #73 Ohio (5-4) @ #123 Miami(OH) (2-7)
57-21 // #81 UAB (5-4) @ #75 North Texas (6-4)
21-61 // #79 Rutgers (3-6) @ #21 Michigan St (5-4)
20-21 // #80 SMU (3-6) @ #102 USF (3-6)
26-17 // #9 Georgia (8-1) @ #82 Mississippi St (3-6)
31-34 // #84 Liberty (5-4) @ #126 UConn (2-8)
10-49 // #85 Indiana (3-6) @ #1 Ohio St (9-0)
7-64 // #86 Northwestern (3-6) @ #46 Minnesota (6-3)
14-42 // #87 Stanford (3-6) @ #23 Utah (7-2)
28-30 // #88 La Tech (5-4) @ #47 UTSA (6-3)
40-20 // #52 Florida St (5-4) @ #89 Syracuse (3-6)
24-36 // #94 Temple (4-5) @ #35 Houston (7-2)
31-38 // #95 Ball St (4-5) @ #83 Toledo (4-5)
44-24 // #18 Miami (7-2) @ #97 Georgia Tech (3-6)
17-51 // #98 Rice (3-6) @ #36 WKU (9-1)
24-55 // #99 Buffalo (5-4) @ #48 Central Michigan (6-3)
21-49 // #101 San Jose St (4-5) @ #56 San Diego St (6-3)
14-44 // #105 Southern Miss (4-5) @ #93 Coastal Carolina (4-5)
28-27 // #77 Oregon St (4-5) @ #106 California (3-6)
19-16 // #119 Charlotte (2-8) @ #108 Middle Tennessee (3-6)
33-20 // #104 Virginia Tech (2-7) @ #109 Duke (3-6)
21-23 // #110 Kent St (3-6) @ #127 Bowling Green (2-7)
16-37 // #111 Ga Southern (3-6) @ #33 Louisiana (8-1)
20-22 // #113 Arizona (2-7) @ #96 UCLA (4-5)
40-35 // #115 Kansas (1-8) @ #114 Texas Tech (1-8)
21-20 // #32 UCF (7-2) @ #116 Tulane (2-7)
31-20 // #76 Utah St (5-4) @ #117 Hawaii (3-7)
27-17 // #70 Fresno St (6-3) @ #118 UNLV (2-7)
31-36 // #120 Vanderbilt (1-8) @ #26 Kentucky (7-2)
17-76 // #121 La Monroe (1-8) @ #71 Georgia St (5-4)
14-71 // #122 New Mexico (2-7) @ #38 Air Force (6-3)
50-23 // #57 Army (5-3) @ #124 Troy (1-8)
28-24 // #54 Eastern Michigan (6-3) @ #125 Akron (2-7)
20-28 // #128 UMass (3-6) @ #112 Arkansas St (3-6)
10-29 // #129 James Madison (0-7) @ #91 Old Dominion (4-5)
27-24 // #63 FAU (6-3) @ #130 FIU (2-7)
57-24 // #0 FCS (0-11) @ #131 New Mexico St (0-9)

WEEK: 12
19-30 // #5 OK State (10-0) @ #3 Oklahoma (10-0)
27-32 // #8 Georgia (9-1) @ #25 Kentucky (8-2)
14-34 // #18 Iowa (7-3) @ #38 Minnesota (7-3)
24-35 // #22 Miami (8-2) @ #4 Clemson (10-0)
28-35 // #23 Utah (8-2) @ #21 Oregon (8-2)
32-31 // #81 Coastal Carolina (5-5) @ #26 Virginia (8-2)
29-21 // #62 Kansas St (5-5) @ #27 West Virginia (7-3)
24-48 // #30 WKU (10-1) @ #10 Auburn (8-2)
28-56 // #32 Louisiana (9-1) @ #43 Florida St (6-4)
35-23 // #9 Navy (9-1) @ #34 UCF (8-2)
24-29 // #35 Houston (8-2) @ #29 East Carolina (7-3)
27-30 // #36 NC State (7-3) @ #54 Louisville (5-5)
62-10 // #14 Wisconsin (8-2) @ #37 Nebraska (7-3)
28-17 // #16 Western Michigan (9-1) @ #40 Central Michigan (7-3)
56-28 // #56 Tennessee (5-5) @ #44 South Carolina (6-4)
24-7 // #1 Ohio St (10-0) @ #60 Maryland (5-5)
28-35 // #63 Ole Miss (5-5) @ #55 Arkansas (5-5)
21-31 // #64 Fresno St (7-3) @ #65 Nevada (6-4)
48-34 // #13 Boise St (9-1) @ #69 Wyoming (6-4)
14-18 // #70 Oregon St (5-5) @ #49 Arizona St (6-4)
17-28 // #72 UAB (6-4) @ #57 LSU (5-5)
31-32 // #73 TCU (5-5) @ #31 Baylor (6-4)
24-54 // #74 Boston College (5-5) @ #12 Notre Dame (7-3)
24-28 // #79 Colorado St (5-5) @ #33 Air Force (7-3)
31-46 // #82 Colorado (4-6) @ #51 Washington (7-3)
19-17 // #7 Penn State (8-2) @ #85 Rutgers (3-7)
6-26 // #86 Old Dominion (5-5) @ #42 App St (7-3)
3-39 // #87 Indiana (3-7) @ #19 Michigan St (6-4)
24-47 // #88 Illinois (3-7) @ #2 Michigan (10-0)
10-55 // #89 Stanford (3-7) @ #107 California (3-7)
31-28 // #50 USC (7-3) @ #90 UCLA (5-5)
21-52 // #91 USF (4-6) @ #67 Tulsa (6-4)
27-32 // #93 La Tech (5-5) @ #113 Charlotte (3-8)
17-51 // #94 Syracuse (3-7) @ #15 Wake Forest (8-2)
28-48 // #95 Georgia Tech (3-7) @ #11 North Carolina (8-2)
13-21 // #96 Northwestern (3-7) @ #75 Purdue (4-6)
23-32 // #98 South Alabama (5-5) @ #106 Southern Miss (4-6)
62-17 // #58 Cincinnati (6-4) @ #100 Temple (4-6)
34-31 // #41 UTSA (7-3) @ #101 Rice (3-7)
16-50 // #102 Liberty (5-5) @ #99 Virginia Tech (3-7)
29-28 // #92 Ohio (5-5) @ #104 Ball St (4-6)
20-44 // #105 San Jose St (4-6) @ #66 Utah St (6-4)
14-67 // #108 Arkansas St (4-6) @ #71 Texas St (7-3)
39-17 // #24 Texas (6-4) @ #109 Kansas (2-8)
32-20 // #39 Marshall (8-2) @ #110 Ga Southern (3-7)
17-57 // #111 Duke (3-7) @ #17 Pittsburgh (8-2)
44-23 // #61 FAU (7-3) @ #112 Middle Tennessee (3-7)
63-21 // #52 Eastern Michigan (7-3) @ #114 Kent St (3-7)
40-35 // #46 Washington St (6-4) @ #115 Arizona (2-8)
34-21 // #123 UNLV (2-8) @ #116 Hawaii (3-8)
13-61 // #117 Bowling Green (3-7) @ #80 Toledo (5-5)
13-47 // #118 Miami(OH) (3-7) @ #77 Northern Illinois (5-5)
7-20 // #119 Texas Tech (1-9) @ #47 Iowa St (5-5)
32-31 // #20 Florida (7-3) @ #120 Vanderbilt (1-9)
24-33 // #121 UConn (3-8) @ #48 Army (6-3)
26-24 // #97 SMU (3-7) @ #122 Tulane (2-8)
14-36 // #124 La Monroe (1-9) @ #125 Troy (1-9)
28-23 // #53 San Diego St (7-3) @ #126 New Mexico (2-8)
24-27 // #127 Akron (2-8) @ #103 Buffalo (5-5)
24-27 // #128 UMass (3-7) @ #28 Texas A&M (6-4)
20-22 // #129 FIU (2-8) @ #78 UTEP (6-4)
17-18 // #131 New Mexico St (0-10) @ #76 Missouri (4-6)
20-30 // #0 FCS (1-11) @ #6 Alabama (10-0)
0-35 // #0 FCS (1-11) @ #83 Mississippi St (3-7)
0-55 // #0 FCS (1-11) @ #68 Memphis (5-5)
3-68 // #0 FCS (1-11) @ #45 BYU (5-5)

WEEK: 13
33-31 // #4 Michigan (11-0) @ #1 Ohio St (11-0)
28-45 // #9 Auburn (9-2) @ #5 Alabama (11-0)
35-17 // #40 NC State (7-4) @ #10 North Carolina (9-2)
14-48 // #18 Michigan St (7-4) @ #8 Penn State (9-2)
24-35 // #23 Air Force (8-3) @ #56 San Diego St (8-3)
46-28 // #17 Pittsburgh (9-2) @ #24 Miami (8-3)
31-42 // #26 Minnesota (8-3) @ #12 Wisconsin (9-2)
16-21 // #29 Baylor (7-4) @ #25 Texas (7-4)
31-21 // #21 Florida (8-3) @ #30 Florida St (7-4)
27-24 // #62 Georgia St (7-4) @ #34 Marshall (9-2)
10-59 // #36 West Virginia (7-4) @ #6 OK State (10-1)
14-58 // #37 Louisville (6-5) @ #20 Kentucky (9-2)
31-32 // #39 Nebraska (7-4) @ #27 Iowa (7-4)
20-27 // #44 LSU (6-5) @ #28 Texas A&M (7-4)
10-21 // #48 Washington (8-3) @ #45 Washington St (7-4)
29-28 // #52 Central Michigan (7-4) @ #51 Eastern Michigan (8-3)
41-24 // #11 Notre Dame (8-3) @ #55 USC (8-3)
24-26 // #59 South Carolina (6-5) @ #3 Clemson (11-0)
9-42 // #61 Tulsa (7-4) @ #49 Houston (8-3)
45-27 // #42 WKU (10-2) @ #64 FAU (8-3)
34-17 // #54 Louisiana (9-2) @ #65 Texas St (8-3)
13-54 // #66 Utah St (7-4) @ #14 Boise St (10-1)
20-29 // #67 Memphis (6-5) @ #92 SMU (4-7)
31-34 // #72 Mississippi St (4-7) @ #71 Ole Miss (5-6)
14-47 // #73 Toledo (6-5) @ #13 Western Michigan (10-1)
43-14 // #19 Oregon (9-2) @ #75 Oregon St (5-6)
38-31 // #89 Syracuse (3-8) @ #76 Boston College (5-6)
37-21 // #53 Iowa St (6-5) @ #77 TCU (5-6)
39-38 // #46 Arkansas (6-5) @ #78 Missouri (5-6)
15-14 // #74 Wyoming (6-5) @ #79 Fresno St (7-4)
31-35 // #80 UTEP (7-4) @ #47 UTSA (8-3)
45-17 // #31 Utah (8-3) @ #83 Colorado (4-7)
20-38 // #85 Rutgers (3-8) @ #63 Maryland (5-6)
20-22 // #87 Old Dominion (5-6) @ #107 South Alabama (5-6)
55-10 // #70 Purdue (5-6) @ #88 Indiana (3-8)
30-27 // #32 UCF (8-3) @ #91 USF (4-7)
22-21 // #33 Virginia (8-3) @ #93 Virginia Tech (4-7)
46-17 // #98 UCLA (5-6) @ #95 California (4-7)
21-47 // #96 Georgia Tech (3-8) @ #16 Georgia (9-2)
70-7 // #38 BYU (6-5) @ #97 Stanford (3-8)
35-24 // #90 Illinois (3-8) @ #99 Northwestern (3-8)
29-14 // #22 East Carolina (8-3) @ #100 Temple (4-7)
24-37 // #101 Southern Miss (5-6) @ #126 La Monroe (1-10)
43-10 // #86 UAB (6-5) @ #102 La Tech (5-6)
27-40 // #105 Rice (3-8) @ #84 North Texas (6-5)
30-20 // #60 Nevada (7-4) @ #109 UNLV (3-8)
38-24 // #35 App St (8-3) @ #110 Ga Southern (3-8)
37-31 // #41 Arizona St (7-4) @ #111 Arizona (2-9)
45-24 // #15 Wake Forest (9-2) @ #112 Duke (3-8)
21-41 // #113 Kansas (2-9) @ #58 Kansas St (6-5)
20-26 // #116 Troy (2-9) @ #114 Arkansas St (4-7)
14-34 // #117 Kent St (3-8) @ #94 Buffalo (6-5)
38-17 // #2 Oklahoma (11-0) @ #118 Texas Tech (1-10)
47-28 // #43 Tennessee (6-5) @ #119 Vanderbilt (1-10)
24-27 // #120 Bowling Green (3-8) @ #81 Ohio (6-5)
10-40 // #121 Tulane (2-9) @ #57 Cincinnati (7-4)
16-26 // #122 Hawaii (3-9) @ #103 San Jose St (4-7)
45-24 // #104 Ball St (4-7) @ #123 Miami(OH) (3-8)
21-37 // #125 New Mexico (2-9) @ #82 Colorado St (5-6)
14-44 // #127 Akron (2-9) @ #68 Northern Illinois (6-5)
23-20 // #50 Army (7-3) @ #128 UMass (3-8)
33-24 // #115 Middle Tennessee (3-8) @ #129 FIU (2-9)
21-58 // #131 New Mexico St (0-11) @ #106 Liberty (5-6)
07-24-2022 11:00 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Crayton Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,997
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 105
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #49
RE: '22 Season End Simulations [Ohio State - Michigan rematch?]
(05-15-2022 01:05 PM)jimrtex Wrote:  
(04-26-2022 02:23 PM)Crayton Wrote:  
(04-26-2022 02:05 PM)jimrtex Wrote:  How do you do your sim?

If you had a set of teams and a schedule could you project the results?

What does 125b indicate?

I've got a database with the teams and schedules. There is also strength data pulled mostly from past years. I run a Monte Carlo simulation 10,000 times. I prefer Monte Carlo to a projection because results in one game often influence others (tie-breakers, correlation of strength, etc) Each "sim" gives each team a different strength value, loosely based around their expected strength. Each game of the sim is then assigned a point spread based on that strength and a random value along a normal distribution of that spread is assigned to the game. A crude algorithm then turns that point spread into a football-ish score.

The original purpose of the software was to rank teams. The results of each sim are then incorporated into the ranking function and every team is assigned a rank from 1-131. Division/Conference tie-breakers are incorporated and postseason games are also simmed. Technically the sim only completes the postseason games of: CCGs, semis, and National Championship; I usually hand-sim other games for the results I post here.

"125b" means of the 10,000 sims, this is #125. If I want to go back weeks from now and reference that sim, I know which one to pull up. "b" I used here because I have over-written the original set of 10,000 sims to incorporate the changes mentioned in my last post. "125" is merely the default number in the system; out of laziness I usually look at that one first.

I am learning SQL because I want the 10,000 years to be accessible online, so that users can filter the results to see "what if" results.
Is the "strength" comparable to a Sagarin rating, where the difference in ratings along with a home-field adjustment is the mean expected point spread?

For each run, you assign a different strength value to the team. What does "loosely" mean. I assume this is to give more variability to the results, and that your strength ratings are necessarily inaccurate (past results are indicative, not predictive), and perhaps to represent events that are difficult or impossible to model, such as a starting QB breaking his arm in first game or a coach having an Urban Meyer event. By varying the season strength you may increase the chance of a team running the table, that would not happen if you applied strength on a game by game basis.

What is the standard deviation for each game? I read that it is 14 points for an NFL game. If it were very large (say 30), it would be like they came out an held the coin toss. "Rams call head", (coin toss), "It is heads, the Rams win the coin toss and the game. Good luck next week gentlemen." If it were 3 points, it would be too predictable.

Do you adjust the strength based on the results of the game? If a game between East-West State and North-South University were a pick, it might still end up a 28-point rout. In your simulation you would roll the dice and they come up snake-eyes or box-cars. Improbable, but not impossible. Though there is no skill involved in rolling the dice, we can assume a 28-point win by E-W is in part due to E-W being the better team. An adjustment in strength would also increase the chance of an undefeated seasons.
Yes it is comparable to Sagarin. Multiply his by 20 to approximate mine. His home field advantage, I see, is 30% larger than mine. Perhaps I should investigate updating mine.

You are correct in defining my "loosely" term. A team's assigned strength also follows a normal distribution based on that "past results" strength... 90% of the time. 10% of the time the strength a team will begin a sim with is based on a broader range of their conference's (/opponents') strengths. This, as you note, is to simulate the freak occurrences where a team's QB breaks his arm or a darkhorse Heisman candidate appears, etc. Because it is based on opponents' strength it does not result in CUSA Rice rampaging past USC by four scores.

Strength IS adjusted after each game. This is a new addition this off-season. If Clemson has an 89% chance of defeating Georgia Tech to open the season, that number should not still be 89% if Georgia Tech surprises all and wins the Atlantic at 10-2. Related, if Georgia suffers another early season loss to South Carolina, that 'loss' should linger in their performance subsequent weeks. The attempt here was to simulate momentum and you are correct that this adjustment is made on expected point-spread, where a "rout" even over a team you were favored against (or eeking out a win over a patsy) will result in a momentum change for subsequent games.


Attached File(s)
.png  sim500.png (Size: 296.49 KB / Downloads: 15)
(This post was last modified: 08-04-2022 07:20 PM by Crayton.)
07-24-2022 11:23 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Crayton Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,997
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 105
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #50
RE: '22 Season End Simulations [Ohio State - Michigan rematch?]
Going on a three week roadtrip/campingtrip with the fam. So this'll be my last post here for a bit. My son, God bless'im, is a Seminole fan and we may see their Week 0 game on the way back home. I may or may not post 1 more sim then, but will definitely post my first in-season sim after Week 1.

Sim 500: Michigan loses in the Big Ten finale yet stays in the Top 4, along with fellow non-Big Ten Champ Ohio State (11-1), who is given the top seed. The other playoff teams are the only other undefeateds Oklahoma and Clemson. In the 4-team scenario, these two ascend to the National Championship game in SoFi.

In the 6+3, 75% of the Final Four are Big Ten teams. In the 6+6, 75% of the first-round game are upsets (Boise over #1 Ohio State!). Makes for somewhat of a dud of a second round, save for Georgia who tries to parlay their first ever SEC Championship win over Alabama into a National Championship; in both expanded formats Oklahoma knocks them off. In the 6+3, Big Ten champ Wisconsin claims the crown.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=11176]
08-04-2022 07:27 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2022 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2022 MyBB Group.