Any simulations where Rice wins more tha four games?

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NC State loses and the playoff is rather non-controversial. Sure, Texas A&M has 2 losses, but the only power team with fewer is NC State from the (this sim) middling ACC. The Cotton Bowl is an all-Sun Belt replay, as Louisiana tries (and fails) to redeem the one loss they suffered during the regular season. Yes, 11-1 Marshall (with 2 Top 25 wins, including #19 Notre Dame) gets the lone at large spot instead of 12-1 NC State (with only 1 Top 25 victory, over #22 Wake Forest).

In the expanded playoffs, Cincinnati ousts P5 Champ Pittsburgh, largely because of having 2 fewer losses, and being from a conference ranked not too far below the ACC. Marshall and Louisiana both do some P5 damage before each falling to eventual champion Alabama. In both expanded formats, 9-3 Texas makes a surprise appearance in the Rose Bowl in a rivalry game (vs. A&M in the 6+3, vs. Oklahoma in the 6+6).

(05-04-2022 11:22 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  Any simulations where Rice wins more tha four games?

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I have 3-9 as their most likely record. 1 "likely" win against their FCS opponent and 4 toss-ups (La Tech, Charlotte, UTEP, UNT). Still, their bowl odds are set to 13%, so not impossible.

(04-19-2022 09:22 AM)Edgebrookjeff Wrote:  

(04-12-2022 01:18 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  I'm surprised to see Cincy at the top. Lots of talent players heading to the NFL. Key losses: QB Desmond Ridder, CB Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner, RB Jerome Ford, DE Myjai Sanders, and WR Alec Pierce.

I would think the top of the AAC would be:
1. Houston
2. UCF
3. ECU
4. Cincy

Its not uncommon for UCF to be favored in most models. The undefeated streak tends to skew models. So Cincy and UCF having recent undefeated regular seasons outweighs the progress teams like Houston and ECU have made.

Yes, Cincy has more guys going to the NFL than ever before in their history. They also have a good many guys with lots of experience coming back for another year. Plus they will benefit from a few portal guys coming in as well as some highly rated recruits that are ready for more PT. They have a very favorable schedule as they have neither Memphis nor Houston on the schedule. It would not be a surprise if they come close to repeating the success from last year.

Last year, Cincy had the big cap-feather of having beat Notre Dame. IMO that is what got them in to the playoffs. We could almost see it coming - ND themselves had a weak schedule, so they were in position to beat everyone but Cincy, thus looking great on Cincy's resume, which is how it played out.

This year, Cincy doesn't seem to have that. Their schedule looks weak up and down the line.

The one possible wild card is the opener vs Arkansas. If they win that, and then Arkansas, which has been improving, goes on a run and ends up as a top SEC team, then they would fill the bill. But that IMO is very unlikely, given the withering competition of the SEC.

I will be very surprised if Cincy can make the playoffs with this schedule. I will also be surprised if there is ever a single CFP rankings that doesn't include an SEC team.

I'm not sure there ever has been?

Also, just curious - what was your final pre-season simulation prediction for the four playoff teams last year?

(05-07-2022 11:40 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Also, just curious - what was your final pre-season simulation prediction for the four playoff teams last year?

Last year, this was an extended (week-by-week) simulation:
https://csnbbs.com/thread-922993.html
and here is a thread similar to this current one with multiple sims:
https://csnbbs.com/thread-924679.html
My '21 pre-season Top 4 most likely playoff teams were:
Ohio State, Alabama, Notre Dame, Clemson
This year they are:
Ohio State, Alabama, Notre Dame, Oklahoma
(replace ND with Clemson for the most likely set of 4)

To all, I would be very interested in delivering data in threads like this which is of interest to fans. So if there are better (or, simply, "more") lists or what-ifs or stats that would be of interest, make mention and I can try and include them.

(05-07-2022 09:59 AM)Crayton Wrote:  

(05-04-2022 11:22 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  Any simulations where Rice wins more tha four games?

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I have 3-9 as their most likely record. 1 "likely" win against their FCS opponent and 4 toss-ups (La Tech, Charlotte, UTEP, UNT). Still, their bowl odds are set to 13%, so not impossible.

That matches my data, Loki.
You might have seen that I have Rice with a >10% chance to make a bowl.

Also noticed that in Sim 125b Rice gets only its second win by beating Ranked UTSA (#25) at home by a FG.

So if we don’t make a bowl I’ll take a win over a ranked team!

(05-08-2022 04:33 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  I would take those odds. I figure we have 10-25% chance of stringing together 6 regular season W’s.

And probably the same 10-20% chance of an 0-fer or 1-11 campaign.

(04-26-2022 02:23 PM)Crayton Wrote:  

(04-26-2022 02:05 PM)jimrtex Wrote:  How do you do your sim?

If you had a set of teams and a schedule could you project the results?

What does 125b indicate?

I've got a database with the teams and schedules. There is also strength data pulled mostly from past years. I run a Monte Carlo simulation 10,000 times. I prefer Monte Carlo to a projection because results in one game often influence others (tie-breakers, correlation of strength, etc) Each "sim" gives each team a different strength value, loosely based around their expected strength. Each game of the sim is then assigned a point spread based on that strength and a random value along a normal distribution of that spread is assigned to the game. A crude algorithm then turns that point spread into a football-ish score.

The original purpose of the software was to rank teams. The results of each sim are then incorporated into the ranking function and every team is assigned a rank from 1-131. Division/Conference tie-breakers are incorporated and postseason games are also simmed. Technically the sim only completes the postseason games of: CCGs, semis, and National Championship; I usually hand-sim other games for the results I post here.

"125b" means of the 10,000 sims, this is #125. If I want to go back weeks from now and reference that sim, I know which one to pull up. "b" I used here because I have over-written the original set of 10,000 sims to incorporate the changes mentioned in my last post. "125" is merely the default number in the system; out of laziness I usually look at that one first.

I am learning SQL because I want the 10,000 years to be accessible online, so that users can filter the results to see "what if" results.

Is the "strength" comparable to a Sagarin rating, where the difference in ratings along with a home-field adjustment is the mean expected point spread?

For each run, you assign a different strength value to the team. What does "loosely" mean. I assume this is to give more variability to the results, and that your strength ratings are necessarily inaccurate (past results are indicative, not predictive), and perhaps to represent events that are difficult or impossible to model, such as a starting QB breaking his arm in first game or a coach having an Urban Meyer event. By varying the season strength you may increase the chance of a team running the table, that would not happen if you applied strength on a game by game basis.

What is the standard deviation for each game? I read that it is 14 points for an NFL game. If it were very large (say 30), it would be like they came out an held the coin toss. "Rams call head", (coin toss), "It is heads, the Rams win the coin toss and the game. Good luck next week gentlemen." If it were 3 points, it would be too predictable.

Do you adjust the strength based on the results of the game? If a game between East-West State and North-South University were a pick, it might still end up a 28-point rout. In your simulation you would roll the dice and they come up snake-eyes or box-cars. Improbable, but not impossible. Though there is no skill involved in rolling the dice, we can assume a 28-point win by E-W is in part due to E-W being the better team. An adjustment in strength would also increase the chance of an undefeated seasons.

Sim #500 Week 14 and Top 14
#1 Michigan (12-0) @ #11 Wisconsin (10-2)
#2 Ohio St (11-1) **at large**
#3 Oklahoma (12-0) @ #7 OK State (11-1)
#4 Clemson (12-0) @ #15 Pittsburgh (10-2)
#5 Alabama (12-0) @ #14 Georgia (10-2)
#6 Penn State (10-2) **at large**
#8 Navy (10-1) @ #22 East Carolina (9-3)
#9 Notre Dame (9-3) **at large**
#10 Western Michigan (11-1) @ #77 Ohio (7-5)
#12 Auburn (9-3) **at large**
#13 Boise St (11-1) @ #45 San Diego St (9-3)
#18 Oregon (10-2) @ #49 Arizona St (8-4)
#36 WKU (11-2) @ #42 UTSA (9-3)
#37 App St (9-3) @ #47 Louisiana (10-2)

This one looks fun. 4 undefeated Power teams, but the committee did not drop #1 Ohio State far after their 2-point loss to Michigan. Of the other 3 teams, Oklahoma has the strongest resume and eye-test. Clemson edges Alabama on the resume, 'Bama the Tigers on the eyes. Georgia is a much bigger test than Pittsburgh, despite the similar rankings, so I would expect Clemson to be the odd-team out if it came down to it.

Navy is leading the G5 in the rankings, but a win over East Carolina (really?) won't put them in the club house yet. There is still the Army-Navy game. Western Michigan and Boise are looking for a piece of the action and there is a slight chance they'll still get it as a NY6 at large.

After 9-0 Oregon, the Pac-12 and its new divisionless structure was a traffic jam of 5 teams finishing 6-3. ASU was the only 3-1 team and beat the only other team (USC) with 1 loss. Early season losses by the Ducks to BYU (by 8) and Georgia (by 52) have likely doomed the Pac-12's hope for fielding a "Top 6" Champ.

(05-15-2022 01:05 PM)jimrtex Wrote:  

(04-26-2022 02:23 PM)Crayton Wrote:  

(04-26-2022 02:05 PM)jimrtex Wrote:  How do you do your sim?

If you had a set of teams and a schedule could you project the results?

What does 125b indicate?

I've got a database with the teams and schedules. There is also strength data pulled mostly from past years. I run a Monte Carlo simulation 10,000 times. I prefer Monte Carlo to a projection because results in one game often influence others (tie-breakers, correlation of strength, etc) Each "sim" gives each team a different strength value, loosely based around their expected strength. Each game of the sim is then assigned a point spread based on that strength and a random value along a normal distribution of that spread is assigned to the game. A crude algorithm then turns that point spread into a football-ish score.

The original purpose of the software was to rank teams. The results of each sim are then incorporated into the ranking function and every team is assigned a rank from 1-131. Division/Conference tie-breakers are incorporated and postseason games are also simmed. Technically the sim only completes the postseason games of: CCGs, semis, and National Championship; I usually hand-sim other games for the results I post here.

"125b" means of the 10,000 sims, this is #125. If I want to go back weeks from now and reference that sim, I know which one to pull up. "b" I used here because I have over-written the original set of 10,000 sims to incorporate the changes mentioned in my last post. "125" is merely the default number in the system; out of laziness I usually look at that one first.

I am learning SQL because I want the 10,000 years to be accessible online, so that users can filter the results to see "what if" results.

Is the "strength" comparable to a Sagarin rating, where the difference in ratings along with a home-field adjustment is the mean expected point spread?

For each run, you assign a different strength value to the team. What does "loosely" mean. I assume this is to give more variability to the results, and that your strength ratings are necessarily inaccurate (past results are indicative, not predictive), and perhaps to represent events that are difficult or impossible to model, such as a starting QB breaking his arm in first game or a coach having an Urban Meyer event. By varying the season strength you may increase the chance of a team running the table, that would not happen if you applied strength on a game by game basis.

What is the standard deviation for each game? I read that it is 14 points for an NFL game. If it were very large (say 30), it would be like they came out an held the coin toss. "Rams call head", (coin toss), "It is heads, the Rams win the coin toss and the game. Good luck next week gentlemen." If it were 3 points, it would be too predictable.

Do you adjust the strength based on the results of the game? If a game between East-West State and North-South University were a pick, it might still end up a 28-point rout. In your simulation you would roll the dice and they come up snake-eyes or box-cars. Improbable, but not impossible. Though there is no skill involved in rolling the dice, we can assume a 28-point win by E-W is in part due to E-W being the better team. An adjustment in strength would also increase the chance of an undefeated seasons.

Yes it is comparable to Sagarin. Multiply his by 20 to approximate mine. His home field advantage, I see, is 30% larger than mine. Perhaps I should investigate updating mine.

You are correct in defining my "loosely" term. A team's assigned strength also follows a normal distribution based on that "past results" strength... 90% of the time. 10% of the time the strength a team will begin a sim with is based on a broader range of their conference's (/opponents') strengths. This, as you note, is to simulate the freak occurrences where a team's QB breaks his arm or a darkhorse Heisman candidate appears, etc. Because it is based on opponents' strength it does not result in CUSA Rice rampaging past USC by four scores.

Strength IS adjusted after each game. This is a new addition this off-season. If Clemson has an 89% chance of defeating Georgia Tech to open the season, that number should not still be 89% if Georgia Tech surprises all and wins the Atlantic at 10-2. Related, if Georgia suffers another early season loss to South Carolina, that 'loss' should linger in their performance subsequent weeks. The attempt here was to simulate momentum and you are correct that this adjustment is made on expected point-spread, where a "rout" even over a team you were favored against (or eeking out a win over a patsy) will result in a momentum change for subsequent games.

Going on a three week roadtrip/campingtrip with the fam. So this'll be my last post here for a bit. My son, God bless'im, is a Seminole fan and we may see their Week 0 game on the way back home. I may or may not post 1 more sim then, but will definitely post my first in-season sim after Week 1.

Sim 500: Michigan loses in the Big Ten finale yet stays in the Top 4, along with fellow non-Big Ten Champ Ohio State (11-1), who is given the top seed. The other playoff teams are the only other undefeateds Oklahoma and Clemson. In the 4-team scenario, these two ascend to the National Championship game in SoFi.

In the 6+3, 75% of the Final Four are Big Ten teams. In the 6+6, 75% of the first-round game are upsets (Boise over #1 Ohio State!). Makes for somewhat of a dud of a second round, save for Georgia who tries to parlay their first ever SEC Championship win over Alabama into a National Championship; in both expanded formats Oklahoma knocks them off. In the 6+3, Big Ten champ Wisconsin claims the crown.

Thought I'd walk back a week, to show the post-season implications of rivalry week. I think the Top 7 can all run the table and get in. OK State may need some help. Georgia will likely be a playoff at large if they can beat the Wreck. ACC ends up being the weakest P5, a tinge below the Pac-12. The American (led by #19 SMU, 10-1) is the strongest G5, but the Sun Belt East is stronger.

Top 14
#1 Alabama (10-1) Iron Bowl, winner to Atlanta
#2 Georgia (10-1) vs. GT, was upset by UK last week
#3 Kentucky (10-1) vs. L'ville, locked into SECCG
#4 Stanford (10-1) vs. BYU, locked into P12CG
#5 Oklahoma (10-1) vs. TTU, locked into B12CG
#6 Clemson (10-1) vs. USCe, locked into ACCCG
#7 Auburn (9-2) Iron Bowl, winner to Atlanta
#8 OK State (9-2) vs. WVU, win to get to Arlington
#9 Iowa (9-2) vs. Nebraska, locked into B1GCG
#10 BYU (9-2) vs. Stanford
#11 Miss St (8-3) vs. Ole Miss
#12 Texas (8-3) vs. Baylor, win and OKSt loss to get to B12CG
#13 GaSo (10-1) vs. AppSt, messy tiebreaker if they lose
#14 Notre Dame (8-3) vs. USC
#15 Pittsburgh (10-1) vs. Miami, locked into ACCCG
#16 Ohio State (9-3) vs. Michigan, PSU/MSU "likely" to win division

For the new, expanded playoff, the Big Ten looks like the P5 who will not get their bye. It looks like at least one 3-loss at large will make the playoff.

(09-12-2022 11:40 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Thought I'd walk back a week, to show the post-season implications of rivalry week. I think the Top 7 can all run the table and get in. OK State may need some help. Georgia will likely be a playoff at large if they can beat the Wreck. ACC ends up being the weakest P5, a tinge below the Pac-12. The American (led by #19 SMU, 10-1) is the strongest G5, but the Sun Belt East is stronger.

Top 14
#1 Alabama (10-1) Iron Bowl, winner to Atlanta
#2 Georgia (10-1) vs. GT, was upset by UK last week
#3 Kentucky (10-1) vs. L'ville, locked into SECCG
#4 Stanford (10-1) vs. BYU, locked into P12CG
#5 Oklahoma (10-1) vs. TTU, locked into B12CG
#6 Clemson (10-1) vs. USCe, locked into ACCCG
#7 Auburn (9-2) Iron Bowl, winner to Atlanta
#8 OK State (9-2) vs. WVU, win to get to Arlington
#9 Iowa (9-2) vs. Nebraska, locked into B1GCG
#10 BYU (9-2) vs. Stanford
#11 Miss St (8-3) vs. Ole Miss
#12 Texas (8-3) vs. Baylor, win and OKSt loss to get to B12CG
#13 GaSo (10-1) vs. AppSt, messy tiebreaker if they lose
#14 Notre Dame (8-3) vs. USC
#15 Pittsburgh (10-1) vs. Miami, locked into ACCCG
#16 Ohio State (9-3) vs. Michigan, PSU/MSU "likely" to win division

For the new, expanded playoff, the Big Ten looks like the P5 who will not get their bye. It looks like at least one 3-loss at large will make the playoff.

Code:

WEEK: 3
28-46 // #8 Penn State (2-0) @ #18 Auburn (2-0)
17-28 // #9 BYU (2-0) @ #38 Oregon (1-1)
31-47 // #10 Michigan St (2-0) @ #61 Washington (2-0)
21-20 // #78 Miami(OH) (1-1) @ #21 Cincinnati (1-1)
20-21 // #21 Cincinnati (1-1) @ #78 Miami(OH) (1-1)
36-31 // #27 Miami (2-0) @ #22 Texas A&M (1-1)
40-24 // #37 SMU (2-0) @ #39 Maryland (2-0)
21-24 // #45 Texas Tech (2-0) @ #24 NC State (2-0)
32-31 // #89 Eastern Michigan (1-1) @ #46 Arizona St (1-1)
36-31 // #32 Mississippi St (2-0) @ #48 LSU (1-1)
14-17 // #54 Florida St (2-0) @ #47 Louisville (1-1)
31-27 // #23 Pittsburgh (1-1) @ #55 Western Michigan (1-1)
24-49 // #56 UTSA (1-1) @ #16 Texas (1-1)
30-28 // #3 Georgia (2-0) @ #57 South Carolina (1-1)
17-48 // #58 Toledo (2-0) @ #1 Ohio St (2-0)
13-22 // #59 Liberty (2-0) @ #19 Wake Forest (2-0)
47-21 // #43 Purdue (1-1) @ #60 Syracuse (2-0)
21-34 // #62 WKU (2-0) @ #63 Indiana (2-0)
13-43 // #65 San Diego St (1-1) @ #25 Utah (1-1)
31-34 // #66 Fresno St (1-1) @ #40 USC (2-0)
31-27 // #84 Ga Southern (2-0) @ #67 UAB (1-1)
37-34 // #31 Air Force (2-0) @ #77 Wyoming (2-1)
14-16 // #80 California (2-0) @ #12 Notre Dame (0-2)
10-37 // #83 Tulane (2-0) @ #26 Kansas St (2-0)
28-42 // #86 South Alabama (2-0) @ #51 UCLA (2-0)
24-50 // #87 Nevada (2-1) @ #29 Iowa (1-1)
34-20 // #4 Oklahoma (2-0) @ #88 Nebraska (1-2)
26-20 // #14 Ole Miss (2-0) @ #93 Georgia Tech (1-1)
17-26 // #94 Troy (1-1) @ #44 App St (1-1)
24-27 // #95 Kansas (2-0) @ #33 Houston (1-1)
37-13 // #53 UCF (1-1) @ #96 FAU (2-1)
13-19 // #99 Old Dominion (1-1) @ #76 Virginia (1-1)
21-34 // #102 Vanderbilt (2-1) @ #98 Northern Illinois (1-1)
21-59 // #103 Colorado (0-2) @ #35 Minnesota (2-0)
10-61 // #104 Ohio (1-1) @ #15 Iowa St (2-0)
24-21 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #107 Arizona (1-1)
17-20 // #110 USF (1-1) @ #30 Florida (1-1)
21-28 // #111 La Tech (1-1) @ #6 Clemson (2-0)
21-50 // #113 Arkansas St (1-1) @ #69 Memphis (1-1)
24-21 // #112 UTEP (1-2) @ #114 New Mexico (1-1)
43-34 // #36 Louisiana (2-0) @ #116 Rice (1-1)
28-41 // #117 Texas St (1-1) @ #17 Baylor (1-1)
21-24 // #119 Buffalo (0-2) @ #64 Coastal Carolina (2-0)
20-23 // #120 Colorado St (0-2) @ #49 Washington St (2-0)
39-34 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #121 Southern Miss (0-2)
17-32 // #122 La Monroe (1-1) @ #2 Alabama (2-0)
26-23 // #100 North Texas (2-1) @ #123 UNLV (1-1)
34-10 // #75 Rutgers (2-0) @ #124 Temple (1-1)
20-29 // #125 Akron (1-1) @ #20 Tennessee (2-0)
13-20 // #126 UConn (1-2) @ #7 Michigan (2-0)
30-6 // #52 Marshall (2-0) @ #127 Bowling Green (0-2)
21-68 // #128 Charlotte (0-3) @ #92 Georgia St (0-2)
17-58 // #130 New Mexico St (0-3) @ #28 Wisconsin (1-1)
28-35 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #11 Kentucky (2-0)
27-37 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #72 Missouri (1-1)
14-79 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #13 Arkansas (2-0)
17-24 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #90 Boston College (0-2)
34-35 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #73 Virginia Tech (1-1)
21-31 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #85 Duke (2-0)
6-34 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #81 Northwestern (1-1)
21-28 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #74 West Virginia (0-2)
17-20 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #5 OK State (2-0)
17-49 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #41 Oregon St (2-0)
31-39 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #71 East Carolina (1-1)
31-34 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #70 Tulsa (1-1)
13-46 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #42 Boise St (1-1)
14-44 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #118 Hawaii (0-3)
24-35 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #108 Middle Tennessee (1-1)
19-38 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #82 Army (1-2)
31-32 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #131 UMass (0-2)
17-24 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #109 Kent St (0-2)
20-55 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #79 Central Michigan (0-2)
17-33 // #0 FCS (0-3) @ #105 Ball St (0-2)

WEEK: 4
27-24 // #30 Wisconsin (2-1) @ #1 Ohio St (3-0)
23-20 // #104 Vanderbilt (2-2) @ #2 Alabama (3-0)
44-24 // #20 Baylor (2-1) @ #9 Iowa St (3-0)
35-34 // #81 Central Michigan (1-2) @ #12 Penn State (2-1)
35-27 // #5 Clemson (3-0) @ #16 Wake Forest (3-0)
3-68 // #21 Kansas St (3-0) @ #4 Oklahoma (3-0)
24-28 // #27 Oregon (2-1) @ #46 Washington St (3-0)
35-36 // #32 Minnesota (3-0) @ #28 Michigan St (2-1)
49-17 // #15 Notre Dame (1-2) @ #34 North Carolina (3-0)
23-24 // #35 Florida (2-1) @ #23 Tennessee (3-0)
24-36 // #38 Texas A&M (1-2) @ #11 Arkansas (3-0)
36-24 // #11 Arkansas (3-0) @ #38 Texas A&M (1-2)
23-20 // #110 USF (1-2) @ #40 Louisville (2-1)
29-28 // #33 USC (3-0) @ #42 Oregon St (3-0)
35-38 // #43 UCLA (3-0) @ #107 Colorado (0-3)
46-16 // #91 Stanford (1-1) @ #45 Washington (3-0)
31-36 // #49 TCU (2-0) @ #29 SMU (3-0)
10-22 // #51 Indiana (3-0) @ #44 Cincinnati (1-2)
55-20 // #10 Texas (2-1) @ #52 Texas Tech (2-1)
27-38 // #53 Maryland (2-1) @ #7 Michigan (3-0)
27-13 // #25 Utah (2-1) @ #60 Arizona St (1-2)
24-32 // #61 Toledo (2-1) @ #76 San Diego St (1-2)
36-13 // #26 Iowa (2-1) @ #66 Rutgers (3-0)
31-42 // #69 Virginia (2-1) @ #64 Syracuse (2-1)
31-44 // #70 Missouri (2-1) @ #8 Auburn (3-0)
27-30 // #71 Tulsa (2-1) @ #14 Ole Miss (3-0)
27-28 // #75 West Virginia (1-2) @ #78 Virginia Tech (2-1)
44-35 // #59 Miami(OH) (2-1) @ #79 Northwestern (2-1)
31-28 // #113 Arizona (1-2) @ #80 California (2-1)
14-54 // #82 Wyoming (2-2) @ #22 BYU (2-1)
32-28 // #56 Coastal Carolina (3-0) @ #84 Georgia St (1-2)
21-45 // #88 Northern Illinois (2-1) @ #13 Kentucky (3-0)
34-24 // #124 Southern Miss (0-3) @ #89 Tulane (2-1)
24-26 // #90 North Texas (3-1) @ #57 Memphis (2-1)
31-14 // #87 Duke (3-0) @ #92 Kansas (2-1)
24-27 // #94 Boston College (1-2) @ #58 Florida St (2-1)
28-38 // #95 Nevada (2-2) @ #31 Air Force (3-0)
21-51 // #96 Georgia Tech (1-2) @ #48 UCF (2-1)
29-28 // #47 Marshall (3-0) @ #98 Troy (1-2)
24-32 // #99 James Madison (2-0) @ #41 App St (2-1)
17-46 // #100 Ball St (1-2) @ #67 Ga Southern (3-0)
24-21 // #65 Western Michigan (1-2) @ #101 San Jose St (1-1)
24-36 // #102 FAU (2-2) @ #37 Purdue (2-1)
21-33 // #103 Middle Tennessee (2-1) @ #18 Miami (3-0)
21-35 // #105 Kent St (1-2) @ #3 Georgia (3-0)
38-35 // #50 Boise St (2-1) @ #109 UTEP (2-2)
21-50 // #111 La Tech (1-2) @ #93 South Alabama (2-1)
17-20 // #114 Rice (1-2) @ #36 Houston (2-1)
36-21 // #39 Louisiana (3-0) @ #115 La Monroe (1-2)
23-37 // #116 Arkansas St (1-2) @ #106 Old Dominion (1-2)
24-26 // #118 Navy (0-3) @ #72 East Carolina (2-1)
21-44 // #119 New Mexico (1-2) @ #54 LSU (1-2)
17-45 // #120 UNLV (1-2) @ #97 Utah St (1-2)
20-21 // #122 Buffalo (0-3) @ #77 Eastern Michigan (2-1)
20-23 // #125 Akron (1-2) @ #63 Liberty (2-1)
16-37 // #126 UConn (1-3) @ #17 NC State (3-0)
10-62 // #127 Bowling Green (0-3) @ #19 Mississippi St (3-0)
13-64 // #128 FIU (1-1) @ #74 WKU (2-1)
51-10 // #112 Hawaii (1-3) @ #129 New Mexico St (0-4)
6-30 // #130 Charlotte (0-4) @ #55 South Carolina (1-2)
27-36 // #131 UMass (1-2) @ #123 Temple (1-2)
14-59 // #0 FCS (0-4) @ #24 Pittsburgh (2-1)
14-62 // #0 FCS (0-4) @ #62 Illinois (2-1)
17-36 // #0 FCS (0-4) @ #121 Colorado St (0-3)
35-36 // #0 FCS (0-4) @ #68 UTSA (1-2)
27-34 // #0 FCS (0-4) @ #108 Ohio (1-2)
14-27 // #0 FCS (0-4) @ #117 Texas St (1-2)

WEEK: 5
27-35 // #6 Michigan (4-0) @ #26 Iowa (3-1)
37-28 // #4 Alabama (3-1) @ #7 Arkansas (4-0)
32-27 // #8 OK State (3-0) @ #12 Baylor (3-1)
31-21 // #11 Kentucky (4-0) @ #14 Ole Miss (4-0)
41-38 // #60 Illinois (3-1) @ #17 Wisconsin (3-1)
6-9 // #22 Michigan St (3-1) @ #61 Maryland (2-2)
20-30 // #24 NC State (4-0) @ #5 Clemson (4-0)
48-28 // #62 Texas Tech (2-2) @ #37 Kansas St (3-1)
43-42 // #31 Purdue (3-1) @ #38 Minnesota (3-1)
23-9 // #67 Stanford (2-1) @ #40 Oregon (2-2)
33-31 // #19 SMU (4-0) @ #42 UCF (3-1)
31-47 // #44 Oregon St (3-1) @ #20 Utah (3-1)
21-59 // #46 Texas A&M (1-3) @ #16 Mississippi St (4-0)
16-7 // #50 Ga Southern (4-0) @ #47 Coastal Carolina (4-0)
30-39 // #48 LSU (2-2) @ #9 Auburn (4-0)
18-13 // #1 Oklahoma (4-0) @ #49 TCU (2-1)
16-31 // #55 Indiana (3-1) @ #85 Nebraska (1-3)
21-20 // #27 Wake Forest (3-1) @ #57 Florida St (3-1)
17-31 // #58 Washington (3-1) @ #59 UCLA (3-1)
32-31 // #98 Troy (1-3) @ #66 WKU (3-1)
10-40 // #68 San Diego St (2-2) @ #45 Boise St (3-1)
20-23 // #70 Virginia Tech (3-1) @ #43 North Carolina (3-1)
34-37 // #71 Rutgers (3-1) @ #3 Ohio St (3-1)
35-17 // #79 Virginia (2-2) @ #72 Duke (4-0)
31-32 // #73 Arizona St (1-3) @ #23 USC (4-0)
17-69 // #76 South Alabama (3-1) @ #32 Louisiana (4-0)
36-17 // #2 Georgia (4-0) @ #78 Missouri (2-2)
24-21 // #34 Cincinnati (2-2) @ #80 Tulsa (2-2)
23-20 // #69 Central Michigan (2-2) @ #81 Toledo (2-2)
14-60 // #84 Northwestern (2-2) @ #36 Penn State (2-2)
39-23 // #109 San Jose St (1-2) @ #86 Wyoming (2-3)
27-31 // #88 Colorado (1-3) @ #103 Arizona (2-2)
17-35 // #89 West Virginia (1-3) @ #10 Texas (3-1)
37-24 // #65 East Carolina (3-1) @ #90 USF (2-2)
21-28 // #91 Northern Illinois (2-2) @ #113 Ball St (1-3)
10-63 // #92 Utah St (2-2) @ #18 BYU (3-1)
10-43 // #93 California (2-2) @ #30 Washington St (4-0)
45-21 // #108 FAU (2-3) @ #94 North Texas (3-2)
24-38 // #95 Georgia St (1-3) @ #87 Army (2-2)
27-24 // #63 Liberty (3-1) @ #96 Old Dominion (2-2)
33-24 // #25 Iowa St (3-1) @ #100 Kansas (2-2)
17-30 // #101 Georgia Tech (1-3) @ #28 Pittsburgh (3-1)
42-17 // #56 Louisville (2-2) @ #102 Boston College (1-3)
28-31 // #104 Tulane (2-2) @ #41 Houston (3-1)
14-13 // #74 UTSA (2-2) @ #106 Middle Tennessee (2-2)
31-32 // #107 Ohio (2-2) @ #105 Kent St (1-3)
26-20 // #83 UAB (1-2) @ #114 Rice (1-3)
20-37 // #115 La Monroe (1-3) @ #119 Arkansas St (1-3)
14-35 // #120 Navy (0-4) @ #29 Air Force (4-0)
14-78 // #121 Temple (2-2) @ #52 Memphis (3-1)
30-31 // #122 New Mexico (1-3) @ #124 UNLV (1-3)
56-35 // #51 Miami(OH) (3-1) @ #123 Buffalo (0-4)
32-31 // #77 Fresno St (1-2) @ #126 UConn (1-4)
28-33 // #127 Bowling Green (0-4) @ #125 Akron (1-3)
35-37 // #128 FIU (1-2) @ #130 New Mexico St (0-5)
27-24 // #112 UTEP (2-3) @ #129 Charlotte (0-5)
17-22 // #131 UMass (1-3) @ #75 Eastern Michigan (3-1)
17-24 // #0 FCS (0-5) @ #39 Florida (2-2)
24-29 // #0 FCS (0-5) @ #54 South Carolina (2-2)
13-51 // #0 FCS (0-5) @ #53 Syracuse (3-1)
24-27 // #0 FCS (0-5) @ #35 Marshall (4-0)
14-75 // #0 FCS (0-5) @ #64 Western Michigan (2-2)
24-35 // #0 FCS (0-5) @ #33 App St (3-1)

WEEK: 6
17-21 // #8 Auburn (5-0) @ #2 Georgia (5-0)
31-36 // #10 Texas (4-1) @ #1 Oklahoma (5-0)
36-31 // #1 Oklahoma (5-0) @ #10 Texas (4-1)
28-43 // #13 Arkansas (4-1) @ #9 Mississippi St (5-0)
27-30 // #17 BYU (4-1) @ #21 Notre Dame (2-2)
30-27 // #21 Notre Dame (2-2) @ #17 BYU (4-1)
21-30 // #18 Utah (4-1) @ #46 UCLA (4-1)
30-21 // #78 Army (3-2) @ #20 Wake Forest (4-1)
28-27 // #52 Kansas St (3-2) @ #23 Iowa St (4-1)
35-55 // #24 Washington St (5-0) @ #14 USC (5-0)
28-29 // #32 Air Force (5-0) @ #101 Utah St (2-3)
48-28 // #3 Ohio St (4-1) @ #33 Michigan St (3-2)
27-29 // #34 Ga Southern (5-0) @ #108 Georgia St (1-4)
17-14 // #92 USF (2-3) @ #35 Cincinnati (3-2)
21-26 // #38 North Carolina (4-1) @ #22 Miami (4-0)
28-21 // #12 Iowa (4-1) @ #41 Illinois (4-1)
28-21 // #37 Houston (4-1) @ #42 Memphis (4-1)
24-21 // #79 Missouri (2-3) @ #43 Florida (3-2)
27-36 // #44 Texas Tech (3-2) @ #6 OK State (4-0)
27-24 // #19 Purdue (4-1) @ #47 Maryland (3-2)
21-14 // #93 Kent St (2-3) @ #50 Miami(OH) (4-1)
28-39 // #53 Louisville (3-2) @ #67 Virginia (3-2)
3-44 // #54 Oregon St (3-2) @ #51 Stanford (3-1)
16-21 // #58 East Carolina (4-1) @ #105 Tulane (2-3)
24-23 // #16 Tennessee (4-0) @ #60 LSU (2-3)
21-48 // #62 South Carolina (3-2) @ #7 Kentucky (5-0)
10-55 // #64 Florida St (3-2) @ #30 NC State (4-1)
7-59 // #66 Texas A&M (1-4) @ #4 Alabama (4-1)
49-14 // #15 Michigan (4-1) @ #68 Indiana (3-2)
35-28 // #83 WKU (3-2) @ #69 UTSA (3-2)
28-40 // #70 Nebraska (2-3) @ #71 Rutgers (3-2)
14-36 // #72 Eastern Michigan (4-1) @ #61 Western Michigan (3-2)
14-37 // #74 Fresno St (2-2) @ #40 Boise St (4-1)
28-13 // #29 Ole Miss (4-1) @ #75 Vanderbilt (3-2)
24-39 // #76 Virginia Tech (3-2) @ #27 Pittsburgh (4-1)
42-20 // #65 Washington (3-2) @ #77 Arizona St (1-4)
29-17 // #57 Oregon (2-3) @ #87 Arizona (3-2)
17-14 // #31 Wisconsin (3-2) @ #88 Northwestern (2-3)
20-23 // #89 Toledo (2-3) @ #104 Northern Illinois (2-3)
24-39 // #98 Ball St (2-3) @ #59 Central Michigan (3-2)
62-31 // #55 TCU (2-2) @ #102 Kansas (2-3)
41-35 // #81 Duke (4-1) @ #106 Georgia Tech (1-4)
28-14 // #84 James Madison (3-1) @ #109 Arkansas St (2-3)
28-35 // #110 Middle Tennessee (2-3) @ #73 UAB (2-2)
40-20 // #5 Clemson (5-0) @ #111 Boston College (1-4)
34-35 // #113 Hawaii (2-3) @ #80 San Diego St (2-3)
17-37 // #115 Southern Miss (1-3) @ #85 Troy (2-3)
40-13 // #107 UTEP (3-3) @ #116 La Tech (1-3)
43-14 // #39 App St (4-1) @ #117 Texas St (2-3)
20-22 // #118 Colorado St (1-3) @ #103 Nevada (2-3)
18-17 // #63 Coastal Carolina (4-1) @ #119 La Monroe (1-4)
14-34 // #120 UNLV (2-3) @ #90 San Jose St (2-2)
27-33 // #121 Akron (2-3) @ #112 Ohio (2-3)
42-35 // #86 Tulsa (2-3) @ #122 Navy (0-5)
27-29 // #124 New Mexico (1-4) @ #100 Wyoming (2-4)
28-33 // #126 Buffalo (0-5) @ #128 Bowling Green (0-5)
17-14 // #125 UConn (1-5) @ #129 FIU (1-3)
22-16 // #56 Liberty (4-1) @ #131 UMass (1-4)

WEEK: 7
35-46 // #6 OK State (5-0) @ #38 TCU (3-2)
27-20 // #5 Mississippi St (6-0) @ #8 Kentucky (6-0)
19-28 // #9 USC (6-0) @ #33 Utah (4-2)
35-38 // #12 Auburn (5-1) @ #20 Ole Miss (5-1)
38-21 // #4 Alabama (5-1) @ #13 Tennessee (5-0)
34-31 // #27 Penn State (3-2) @ #14 Michigan (5-1)
29-20 // #29 Stanford (4-1) @ #16 Notre Dame (3-2)
27-30 // #23 Arkansas (4-2) @ #24 BYU (4-2)
6-47 // #30 Washington St (5-1) @ #62 Oregon St (3-3)
31-23 // #19 Louisiana (5-0) @ #32 Marshall (5-0)
17-19 // #35 Iowa St (4-2) @ #17 Texas (4-2)
35-28 // #31 Wisconsin (4-2) @ #40 Michigan St (3-3)
33-17 // #21 NC State (5-1) @ #41 Syracuse (4-1)
24-29 // #42 North Carolina (4-2) @ #70 Duke (5-1)
28-31 // #44 Minnesota (3-2) @ #43 Illinois (4-2)
32-31 // #106 Ohio (3-3) @ #49 Western Michigan (4-2)
13-27 // #52 Memphis (4-2) @ #69 East Carolina (4-2)
23-30 // #66 Miami(OH) (4-2) @ #126 Bowling Green (1-5)
13-36 // #67 LSU (2-4) @ #59 Florida (3-3)
20-13 // #53 Maryland (3-3) @ #71 Indiana (3-3)
21-52 // #73 James Madison (4-1) @ #48 Ga Southern (5-1)
32-31 // #115 Texas St (2-4) @ #75 Troy (3-3)
42-3 // #7 Clemson (6-0) @ #76 Florida St (3-3)
31-34 // #79 Kent St (3-3) @ #108 Toledo (2-4)
34-31 // #87 Tulane (3-3) @ #81 USF (3-3)
20-59 // #82 Vanderbilt (3-3) @ #2 Georgia (6-0)
20-41 // #83 Nebraska (2-4) @ #15 Purdue (5-1)
14-49 // #84 San Jose St (3-2) @ #91 Fresno St (2-3)
24-27 // #85 Utah St (3-3) @ #121 Colorado St (1-4)
30-27 // #18 Miami (5-0) @ #89 Virginia Tech (3-3)
28-40 // #92 Northern Illinois (3-3) @ #88 Eastern Michigan (4-2)
17-36 // #94 Arizona (3-3) @ #50 Washington (4-2)
7-30 // #98 Old Dominion (2-3) @ #57 Coastal Carolina (5-1)
28-31 // #102 California (2-3) @ #104 Colorado (1-4)
3-60 // #103 Kansas (2-4) @ #1 Oklahoma (6-0)
29-27 // #25 Baylor (3-2) @ #105 West Virginia (1-4)
38-31 // #72 WKU (4-2) @ #109 Middle Tennessee (2-4)
20-29 // #111 Arkansas St (2-4) @ #116 Southern Miss (1-4)
20-21 // #112 Rice (1-4) @ #90 FAU (3-3)
35-14 // #100 Nevada (3-3) @ #114 Hawaii (2-4)
20-24 // #117 La Monroe (1-5) @ #74 South Alabama (3-2)
21-33 // #118 Temple (2-3) @ #51 UCF (3-2)
10-31 // #119 La Tech (1-4) @ #101 North Texas (3-3)
24-27 // #120 UConn (2-5) @ #107 Ball St (2-4)
22-17 // #47 Air Force (5-1) @ #122 UNLV (2-4)
30-24 // #54 Central Michigan (4-2) @ #123 Akron (2-4)
14-54 // #124 Navy (0-6) @ #10 SMU (5-0)
21-24 // #125 New Mexico (1-5) @ #127 New Mexico St (1-5)
29-27 // #128 Buffalo (0-6) @ #129 UMass (1-5)
28-40 // #130 Charlotte (0-6) @ #68 UAB (3-2)
27-17 // #78 UTSA (3-3) @ #131 FIU (1-4)
24-47 // #0 FCS (0-7) @ #61 Army (4-2)
28-51 // #0 FCS (0-7) @ #56 Liberty (5-1)

WEEK: 8
27-45 // #3 Mississippi St (7-0) @ #4 Alabama (6-1)
38-31 // #64 Cincinnati (3-3) @ #7 SMU (6-0)
28-53 // #9 Iowa (5-1) @ #6 Ohio St (5-1)
17-20 // #10 Texas (5-2) @ #13 OK State (5-1)
27-43 // #11 Purdue (6-1) @ #25 Wisconsin (5-2)
34-31 // #60 Minnesota (3-3) @ #20 Penn State (4-2)
15-10 // #38 Kansas St (4-2) @ #23 TCU (4-2)
19-16 // #103 Kansas (2-5) @ #29 Baylor (4-2)
24-27 // #35 Boise St (5-1) @ #52 Air Force (6-1)
17-20 // #41 Washington (5-2) @ #110 California (2-4)
24-30 // #47 UCF (4-2) @ #56 East Carolina (5-2)
24-17 // #27 UCLA (5-1) @ #48 Oregon (3-3)
28-37 // #49 Syracuse (4-2) @ #5 Clemson (7-0)
32-13 // #22 BYU (5-2) @ #55 Liberty (6-1)
14-37 // #58 Duke (6-1) @ #19 Miami (6-0)
32-30 // #89 Troy (3-4) @ #66 South Alabama (4-2)
22-17 // #28 Pittsburgh (5-1) @ #68 Louisville (3-3)
35-24 // #67 UAB (4-2) @ #70 WKU (5-2)
7-23 // #72 Eastern Michigan (5-2) @ #102 Ball St (3-4)
38-17 // #63 Memphis (4-3) @ #75 Tulane (4-3)
21-30 // #77 Texas A&M (1-5) @ #65 South Carolina (3-3)
16-23 // #78 Indiana (3-4) @ #57 Rutgers (4-2)
10-26 // #80 Vanderbilt (3-4) @ #62 Missouri (3-3)
20-31 // #81 San Diego St (3-3) @ #90 Nevada (4-3)
50-20 // #15 Ole Miss (6-1) @ #82 LSU (2-5)
45-21 // #69 Western Michigan (4-3) @ #88 Miami(OH) (4-3)
24-38 // #91 North Texas (4-3) @ #74 UTSA (4-3)
17-35 // #93 Colorado (2-4) @ #42 Oregon St (4-3)
14-62 // #94 Georgia St (2-4) @ #36 App St (5-1)
20-32 // #95 Arizona St (1-5) @ #17 Stanford (5-1)
14-51 // #96 Northwestern (2-4) @ #45 Maryland (4-3)
39-28 // #76 FAU (4-3) @ #98 UTEP (4-3)
24-27 // #100 San Jose St (3-3) @ #126 New Mexico St (2-5)
27-20 // #105 Utah St (3-4) @ #101 Wyoming (3-4)
44-13 // #34 Ga Southern (6-1) @ #104 Old Dominion (2-4)
24-36 // #106 Northern Illinois (3-4) @ #86 Ohio (4-3)
13-26 // #107 West Virginia (1-5) @ #43 Texas Tech (3-3)
29-28 // #54 Virginia (4-2) @ #108 Georgia Tech (1-5)
13-43 // #111 Southern Miss (2-4) @ #109 Texas St (3-4)
24-28 // #113 Boston College (1-5) @ #39 Wake Forest (4-2)
20-35 // #115 Rice (1-5) @ #122 La Tech (1-5)
21-29 // #116 Hawaii (2-5) @ #112 Colorado St (2-4)
21-63 // #117 Arkansas St (2-5) @ #12 Louisiana (6-0)
45-31 // #87 Tulsa (3-3) @ #118 Temple (2-4)
16-55 // #119 La Monroe (1-6) @ #61 Army (5-2)
21-36 // #120 Akron (2-5) @ #85 Kent St (3-4)
14-53 // #121 Bowling Green (2-5) @ #53 Central Michigan (5-2)
20-42 // #123 UNLV (2-5) @ #30 Notre Dame (3-3)
36-24 // #31 Houston (5-1) @ #125 Navy (0-7)
35-21 // #99 Toledo (3-4) @ #127 Buffalo (1-6)
37-17 // #71 Fresno St (3-3) @ #128 New Mexico (1-6)
26-14 // #129 FIU (1-5) @ #130 Charlotte (0-7)
10-68 // #0 FCS (0-8) @ #18 Tennessee (5-1)

WEEK: 9
21-34 // #4 Ohio St (6-1) @ #31 Penn State (4-3)
31-32 // #7 OK State (6-1) @ #27 Kansas St (5-2)
38-39 // #12 USC (6-1) @ #98 Arizona (3-4)
35-42 // #13 Miami (7-0) @ #55 Virginia (5-2)
24-21 // #9 Kentucky (6-1) @ #15 Tennessee (6-1)
36-17 // #8 Stanford (6-1) @ #22 UCLA (6-1)
31-42 // #23 Utah (5-2) @ #40 Washington St (5-2)
32-27 // #50 Michigan St (3-4) @ #28 Michigan (5-2)
39-38 // #83 USF (3-4) @ #32 Houston (6-1)
10-27 // #33 Arkansas (4-3) @ #24 Auburn (5-2)
13-28 // #35 TCU (4-3) @ #109 West Virginia (1-6)
50-21 // #1 Oklahoma (7-0) @ #41 Iowa St (4-3)
17-27 // #43 East Carolina (6-2) @ #19 BYU (6-2)
28-33 // #45 Baylor (4-3) @ #37 Texas Tech (4-3)
24-40 // #48 Rutgers (5-2) @ #44 Minnesota (4-3)
56-21 // #3 Georgia (7-0) @ #51 Florida (4-3)
21-56 // #51 Florida (4-3) @ #3 Georgia (7-0)
32-28 // #46 Coastal Carolina (6-1) @ #52 Marshall (5-2)
62-10 // #30 Notre Dame (4-3) @ #53 Syracuse (4-3)
27-28 // #54 Oregon (3-4) @ #97 California (3-4)
17-28 // #56 Missouri (4-3) @ #63 South Carolina (4-3)
20-13 // #25 Pittsburgh (6-1) @ #65 North Carolina (4-3)
22-21 // #57 Cincinnati (4-3) @ #68 UCF (4-3)
39-31 // #38 Wake Forest (5-2) @ #71 Louisville (3-4)
43-17 // #62 UAB (5-2) @ #74 FAU (5-3)
20-26 // #76 Nevada (5-3) @ #110 San Jose St (3-4)
15-14 // #21 SMU (6-1) @ #84 Tulsa (4-3)
31-17 // #34 Illinois (5-2) @ #86 Nebraska (2-5)
23-20 // #95 Toledo (4-4) @ #88 Eastern Michigan (5-3)
36-24 // #10 Ole Miss (7-1) @ #89 Texas A&M (1-6)
39-38 // #102 Arizona St (1-6) @ #90 Colorado (2-5)
7-52 // #92 Virginia Tech (3-4) @ #11 NC State (6-1)
20-23 // #96 North Texas (4-4) @ #77 WKU (5-3)
27-28 // #99 San Diego St (3-4) @ #70 Fresno St (4-3)
21-52 // #103 Northwestern (2-5) @ #17 Iowa (5-2)
44-21 // #111 Middle Tennessee (2-5) @ #104 UTEP (4-4)
28-45 // #105 Old Dominion (2-5) @ #100 Georgia St (2-5)
24-35 // #106 Colorado St (3-4) @ #49 Boise St (5-2)
17-33 // #112 Georgia Tech (1-6) @ #79 Florida St (3-4)
23-20 // #14 Louisiana (7-0) @ #115 Southern Miss (2-5)
18-17 // #75 South Alabama (4-3) @ #116 Arkansas St (2-6)
20-23 // #118 New Mexico St (3-5) @ #130 UMass (1-6)
38-39 // #119 Temple (2-5) @ #126 Navy (0-8)
48-13 // #113 Boston College (1-6) @ #120 UConn (2-6)
43-28 // #101 Miami(OH) (4-4) @ #122 Akron (2-6)
39-35 // #107 Wyoming (3-5) @ #124 Hawaii (2-6)
67-21 // #114 La Tech (2-5) @ #127 FIU (2-5)
20-55 // #131 Charlotte (0-8) @ #117 Rice (1-6)
21-57 // #0 FCS (0-9) @ #29 App St (6-1)

WEEK: 10
3-7 // #4 Clemson (8-0) @ #24 Notre Dame (5-3)
30-28 // #11 Auburn (6-2) @ #5 Mississippi St (7-1)
23-24 // #8 Ohio St (6-2) @ #107 Northwestern (2-6)
33-31 // #34 Wake Forest (6-2) @ #10 NC State (7-1)
37-28 // #73 Troy (4-4) @ #14 Louisiana (8-0)
18-16 // #18 Texas (5-3) @ #15 Kansas St (6-2)
28-30 // #19 Penn State (5-3) @ #83 Indiana (3-5)
35-30 // #16 Iowa (6-2) @ #20 Purdue (6-2)
31-35 // #22 Tennessee (6-2) @ #2 Georgia (8-0)
48-24 // #38 Michigan St (4-4) @ #26 Illinois (6-2)
28-32 // #29 App St (7-1) @ #33 Coastal Carolina (7-1)
24-33 // #31 Washington St (6-2) @ #7 Stanford (7-1)
27-30 // #32 UCLA (6-2) @ #97 Arizona St (2-6)
32-31 // #77 Arizona (4-4) @ #36 Utah (5-3)
14-17 // #37 Oregon St (5-3) @ #52 Washington (5-3)
27-29 // #41 Michigan (5-3) @ #58 Rutgers (5-3)
20-43 // #42 Houston (6-2) @ #21 SMU (7-1)
24-37 // #43 Maryland (5-3) @ #13 Wisconsin (6-2)
34-27 // #71 UTSA (5-3) @ #46 UAB (6-2)
28-23 // #12 BYU (7-2) @ #47 Boise St (6-2)
20-30 // #51 South Carolina (5-3) @ #89 Vanderbilt (3-5)
48-27 // #28 Texas Tech (5-3) @ #54 TCU (4-4)
20-21 // #56 Florida (4-4) @ #98 Texas A&M (1-7)
35-47 // #57 Army (6-2) @ #44 Air Force (7-1)
47-35 // #44 Air Force (7-1) @ #57 Army (6-2)
24-27 // #59 Baylor (4-4) @ #1 Oklahoma (8-0)
26-17 // #75 UCF (4-4) @ #60 Memphis (5-3)
16-24 // #62 Syracuse (4-4) @ #23 Pittsburgh (7-1)
24-29 // #63 Liberty (6-2) @ #39 Arkansas (4-4)
17-20 // #64 North Carolina (4-4) @ #40 Virginia (6-2)
62-7 // #6 Kentucky (7-1) @ #65 Missouri (4-4)
24-36 // #66 Duke (6-2) @ #109 Boston College (2-6)
10-65 // #69 South Alabama (5-3) @ #25 Ga Southern (7-1)
24-67 // #74 Florida St (4-4) @ #30 Miami (7-1)
17-44 // #78 California (4-4) @ #27 USC (6-2)
24-21 // #53 James Madison (5-2) @ #79 Louisville (3-5)
13-47 // #80 Tulane (4-4) @ #86 Tulsa (4-4)
28-24 // #85 Ball St (4-4) @ #81 Kent St (4-4)
72-14 // #17 OK State (6-2) @ #84 Kansas (3-5)
24-27 // #88 Georgia St (3-5) @ #116 Southern Miss (2-6)
32-27 // #35 Minnesota (5-3) @ #90 Nebraska (2-6)
33-21 // #3 Alabama (7-1) @ #92 LSU (2-6)
34-31 // #129 New Mexico (1-7) @ #94 Utah St (4-4)
17-71 // #95 West Virginia (2-6) @ #45 Iowa St (4-4)
31-33 // #96 Texas St (4-4) @ #118 La Monroe (1-7)
31-24 // #114 Georgia Tech (1-7) @ #99 Virginia Tech (3-5)
29-24 // #67 Oregon (3-5) @ #101 Colorado (2-6)
24-20 // #130 FIU (2-6) @ #104 North Texas (4-5)
48-34 // #49 Central Michigan (6-2) @ #108 Northern Illinois (3-5)
17-26 // #110 Colorado St (3-5) @ #100 San Jose St (4-4)
31-20 // #105 Middle Tennessee (3-5) @ #111 La Tech (3-5)
34-20 // #55 Marshall (5-3) @ #112 Old Dominion (2-6)
45-13 // #115 UTEP (4-5) @ #113 Rice (2-6)
54-28 // #61 Western Michigan (5-3) @ #119 Bowling Green (2-6)
10-74 // #120 UNLV (2-6) @ #106 San Diego St (3-5)
10-26 // #121 Navy (1-8) @ #50 Cincinnati (5-3)
52-20 // #72 USF (4-4) @ #123 Temple (2-6)
21-28 // #125 Hawaii (2-7) @ #68 Fresno St (5-3)
14-74 // #127 Buffalo (1-7) @ #76 Ohio (5-3)
17-56 // #128 UMass (2-6) @ #124 UConn (2-7)
32-27 // #70 WKU (6-3) @ #131 Charlotte (0-9)

WEEK: 11
33-28 // #2 Georgia (9-0) @ #7 Mississippi St (7-2)
29-14 // #3 Alabama (8-1) @ #8 Ole Miss (8-1)
17-21 // #15 Wisconsin (7-2) @ #12 Iowa (7-2)
31-35 // #24 Kansas St (6-3) @ #56 Baylor (4-5)
28-27 // #70 Missouri (4-5) @ #25 Tennessee (6-3)
24-26 // #26 Miami (8-1) @ #107 Georgia Tech (2-7)
27-34 // #28 Purdue (6-3) @ #32 Illinois (6-3)
55-21 // #14 Ga Southern (8-1) @ #34 Louisiana (8-1)
32-31 // #18 Pittsburgh (8-1) @ #36 Virginia (7-2)
21-62 // #37 Iowa St (5-4) @ #16 OK State (7-2)
20-27 // #38 App St (7-2) @ #47 Marshall (6-3)
24-42 // #40 Washington (6-3) @ #58 Oregon (4-5)
28-53 // #41 Rutgers (6-3) @ #29 Michigan St (5-4)
17-20 // #44 Oregon St (5-4) @ #83 California (4-5)
17-27 // #48 East Carolina (6-3) @ #43 Cincinnati (6-3)
24-28 // #49 Maryland (5-4) @ #31 Penn State (5-4)
34-31 // #4 Stanford (8-1) @ #51 Utah (5-4)
14-13 // #116 La Tech (3-6) @ #54 UTSA (6-3)
50-17 // #59 Army (6-3) @ #57 Troy (5-4)
27-31 // #60 UAB (6-3) @ #110 North Texas (4-6)
17-61 // #61 Arizona (5-4) @ #46 UCLA (6-3)
22-17 // #82 Florida St (4-5) @ #62 Syracuse (4-5)
7-47 // #63 TCU (4-5) @ #9 Texas (6-3)
24-28 // #68 Indiana (4-5) @ #19 Ohio St (6-3)
31-24 // #13 SMU (8-1) @ #69 USF (5-4)
14-24 // #71 Ohio (6-3) @ #94 Miami(OH) (5-4)
39-28 // #67 South Carolina (5-4) @ #72 Florida (4-5)
21-27 // #73 North Carolina (4-5) @ #27 Wake Forest (7-2)
23-21 // #121 Rice (2-7) @ #74 WKU (7-3)
14-17 // #75 Vanderbilt (4-5) @ #5 Kentucky (8-1)
21-50 // #77 Ball St (5-4) @ #92 Toledo (5-4)
24-34 // #79 Tulsa (5-4) @ #78 Memphis (5-4)
24-45 // #80 Arizona St (3-6) @ #35 Washington St (6-3)
14-37 // #84 Louisville (3-6) @ #11 Clemson (8-1)
20-23 // #86 Texas A&M (2-7) @ #6 Auburn (7-2)
20-27 // #87 Northwestern (3-6) @ #33 Minnesota (6-3)
20-43 // #89 Kansas (3-6) @ #23 Texas Tech (6-3)
31-38 // #90 Nebraska (2-7) @ #52 Michigan (5-4)
31-30 // #50 Boise St (6-3) @ #93 Nevada (5-4)
35-28 // #65 UCF (5-4) @ #96 Tulane (4-5)
24-29 // #97 LSU (2-7) @ #30 Arkansas (5-4)
27-32 // #98 Eastern Michigan (5-4) @ #119 Akron (2-7)
27-21 // #91 San Jose St (5-4) @ #99 San Diego St (4-5)
21-47 // #101 Colorado (2-7) @ #20 USC (7-2)
34-24 // #1 Oklahoma (9-0) @ #102 West Virginia (2-7)
17-49 // #103 Boston College (3-6) @ #22 NC State (7-2)
27-29 // #104 Texas St (4-5) @ #81 South Alabama (5-4)
24-33 // #108 Northern Illinois (3-6) @ #55 Western Michigan (6-3)
27-34 // #111 Virginia Tech (3-6) @ #76 Duke (6-3)
17-22 // #112 Southern Miss (3-6) @ #21 Coastal Carolina (8-1)
7-58 // #113 La Monroe (2-7) @ #105 Georgia St (3-6)
51-17 // #42 James Madison (6-2) @ #114 Old Dominion (2-7)
40-10 // #100 Wyoming (4-5) @ #115 Colorado St (3-6)
59-17 // #66 Liberty (6-3) @ #117 UConn (3-7)
47-20 // #88 Kent St (4-5) @ #120 Bowling Green (2-7)
23-49 // #122 Navy (1-9) @ #17 Notre Dame (6-3)
49-23 // #17 Notre Dame (6-3) @ #122 Navy (1-9)
34-27 // #64 Fresno St (6-3) @ #123 UNLV (2-7)
17-53 // #125 Temple (2-7) @ #53 Houston (6-3)
17-20 // #126 New Mexico (2-7) @ #39 Air Force (8-1)
40-28 // #109 Utah St (4-5) @ #127 Hawaii (2-8)
20-17 // #85 FAU (5-4) @ #128 FIU (3-6)
14-17 // #129 Buffalo (1-8) @ #45 Central Michigan (7-2)
21-26 // #130 UMass (2-7) @ #118 Arkansas St (2-7)
24-33 // #131 Charlotte (0-10) @ #95 Middle Tennessee (4-5)
27-37 // #0 FCS (0-11) @ #124 New Mexico St (3-6)

WEEK: 12
17-24 // #1 Georgia (10-0) @ #5 Kentucky (9-1)
29-28 // #13 OK State (8-2) @ #2 Oklahoma (10-0)
13-39 // #16 Ole Miss (8-2) @ #26 Arkansas (6-4)
21-44 // #17 Coastal Carolina (9-1) @ #41 Virginia (7-3)
31-34 // #21 Texas Tech (7-3) @ #43 Iowa St (5-5)
17-40 // #23 USC (8-2) @ #38 UCLA (7-3)
23-27 // #24 NC State (8-2) @ #81 Louisville (3-7)
24-53 // #25 Illinois (7-3) @ #50 Michigan (6-4)
38-35 // #9 Iowa (8-2) @ #29 Minnesota (7-3)
24-34 // #33 Tennessee (6-4) @ #54 South Carolina (6-4)
24-50 // #37 Marshall (7-3) @ #12 Ga Southern (9-1)
20-23 // #39 Louisiana (8-2) @ #68 Florida St (5-5)
37-13 // #53 Western Michigan (7-3) @ #40 Central Michigan (8-2)
28-31 // #42 Miami (8-2) @ #7 Clemson (9-1)
31-28 // #59 Utah (5-5) @ #44 Oregon (5-5)
30-17 // #30 Penn State (6-4) @ #48 Rutgers (6-4)
31-34 // #51 Houston (7-3) @ #55 East Carolina (6-4)
30-28 // #18 Ohio St (7-3) @ #58 Maryland (5-5)
24-35 // #62 TCU (4-6) @ #45 Baylor (5-5)
24-31 // #63 Fresno St (7-3) @ #99 Nevada (5-5)
30-27 // #28 Washington St (7-3) @ #65 Arizona (5-5)
42-38 // #4 Stanford (9-1) @ #66 California (5-5)
21-14 // #78 Florida (4-6) @ #67 Vanderbilt (4-6)
13-14 // #69 Indiana (4-6) @ #27 Michigan St (6-4)
24-27 // #70 USF (5-5) @ #86 Tulsa (5-5)
35-36 // #71 UTSA (6-4) @ #112 Rice (3-7)
31-44 // #73 Duke (7-3) @ #19 Pittsburgh (9-1)
35-37 // #75 UAB (6-4) @ #100 LSU (2-8)
7-33 // #76 Syracuse (4-6) @ #22 Wake Forest (8-2)
38-39 // #79 Miami(OH) (6-4) @ #110 Northern Illinois (3-7)
27-35 // #80 Ohio (6-4) @ #82 Ball St (5-5)
38-35 // #109 Eastern Michigan (5-5) @ #83 Kent St (5-5)
24-31 // #84 Northwestern (3-7) @ #32 Purdue (6-4)
27-28 // #85 San Jose St (6-4) @ #104 Utah St (5-5)
31-37 // #87 FAU (6-4) @ #98 Middle Tennessee (5-5)
47-28 // #57 Oregon St (5-5) @ #88 Arizona St (3-7)
21-45 // #91 WKU (7-4) @ #6 Auburn (8-2)
24-41 // #92 Georgia Tech (3-7) @ #77 North Carolina (4-6)
24-21 // #49 Boise St (7-3) @ #93 Wyoming (5-5)
32-27 // #10 Texas (7-3) @ #94 Kansas (3-7)
39-24 // #20 Wisconsin (7-3) @ #95 Nebraska (2-8)
31-24 // #15 SMU (9-1) @ #97 Tulane (4-6)
20-23 // #102 Colorado (2-8) @ #47 Washington (6-4)
24-20 // #31 Kansas St (6-4) @ #103 West Virginia (2-8)
17-18 // #107 Boston College (3-7) @ #14 Notre Dame (7-3)
21-20 // #60 Liberty (7-3) @ #113 Virginia Tech (3-7)
30-14 // #74 South Alabama (6-4) @ #114 Southern Miss (3-7)
31-35 // #115 Old Dominion (2-8) @ #46 App St (7-3)
20-38 // #116 Akron (3-7) @ #129 Buffalo (1-9)
27-36 // #117 Colorado St (3-7) @ #35 Air Force (9-1)
24-27 // #118 Arkansas St (3-7) @ #111 Texas St (4-6)
35-39 // #119 La Monroe (2-8) @ #72 Troy (5-5)
31-34 // #120 New Mexico St (4-6) @ #56 Missouri (5-5)
28-32 // #121 UConn (3-8) @ #52 Army (7-3)
21-27 // #122 Bowling Green (2-8) @ #90 Toledo (6-4)
35-36 // #123 Navy (1-10) @ #61 UCF (6-4)
17-24 // #124 UNLV (2-8) @ #127 Hawaii (2-9)
31-24 // #34 Cincinnati (7-3) @ #125 Temple (2-8)
39-24 // #105 San Diego St (4-6) @ #126 New Mexico (2-8)
13-16 // #128 FIU (3-7) @ #106 UTEP (5-5)
6-7 // #130 UMass (2-8) @ #89 Texas A&M (2-8)
34-0 // #108 La Tech (4-6) @ #131 Charlotte (0-11)
14-67 // #0 FCS (0-12) @ #3 Alabama (9-1)
23-34 // #0 FCS (0-12) @ #8 Mississippi St (7-3)
31-34 // #0 FCS (0-12) @ #64 Memphis (6-4)
17-48 // #0 FCS (0-12) @ #11 BYU (8-2)

My Vols go 5-0 and begin SEC play with wins over Florida and LSU, then lose to Alabama KY, Missouri, South Carolina and Georgia. I wouldn't be surprised, but I think most fans would guess 9-3 or 10-2 with that start.

Pre-Rivalry Week Conference Races of Simulation 838
The only P5 CCG spots up for grabs are the Big Ten East (play-in between Ohio State and Michigan) and the second Pac-12 spot (Oregon is in position, but a loss coupled with a UW win and a Utah loss, gives it to the Huskies [they need to clarify that tiebreaker]). #5 Georgia is the only Top 12 team boxed out of a conference title game. In an expanded playoff, they'd be prepping Sanford Stadium for a play-in game already.

Tulane and Cincinnati have already clinched an immediate rematch. #32 Cincy (9-2) is near #28 Troy (8-3) and #34 Coastal (9-2), but I am thinking the high rank of Tulane makes the AAC Champ a lock. #37 James Madison (9-2) 'would' be playing for a spot in the SBCCG, if they were post-season eligible.

Rivalry Week Results Guesses on the pre-CCG rankings?
18-10 // #1 Tennessee (11-0) @ #96 Vanderbilt (3-8)
21-20 // #8 Michigan (10-1) @ #2 Ohio St (11-0) *Michigan lost to Illinois*
27-56 // #73 Auburn (3-8) @ #3 Alabama (10-1)
21-28 // #61 Iowa St (4-7) @ #4 TCU (10-1) *TCU lost to Texas*
28-40 // #102 Georgia Tech (3-8) @ #5 Georgia (10-1) *Georgia lost to Tennessee*
24-28 // #52 Kansas (5-6) @ #6 Kansas St (9-2)
24-31 // #35 South Carolina (7-4) @ #7 Clemson (10-1) *Clemson lost to Notre Dame*
14-32 // #18 Notre Dame (8-3) @ #9 USC (10-1)
17-35 // #10 Tulane (10-1) @ #32 Cincinnati (9-2)
21-20 // #11 Illinois (10-1) @ #119 Northwestern (1-10)
37-24 // #12 Oregon (9-2) @ #25 Oregon St (8-3) *Oregon lost to Washington*
37-17 // #13 Syracuse (9-2) @ #112 Boston College (2-9)
20-27 // #29 Mississippi St (7-4) @ #14 Ole Miss (9-2) *Ole Miss lost to Alabama*
36-35 // #57 Michigan St (5-6) @ #15 Penn State (9-2)
24-26 // #16 LSU (8-3) @ #38 Texas A&M (6-5) *LSU lost to Alabama*
35-49 // #49 Baylor (5-6) @ #17 Texas (7-4) *Texas lost to Kansas State*
17-13 // #28 Troy (8-3) @ #105 Arkansas St (4-7) *Troy lost to Army*
28-17 // #34 Coastal Carolina (9-2) @ #37 James Madison (8-2) *CCU lost to App St*

(11-02-2022 11:22 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Rivalry Week Results Guesses on the pre-CCG rankings?

21-28 // #61 Iowa St (4-7) @ #4 TCU (10-1)

TCU probably going to drop to #6.

Alabama gets revenge on their earlier loss to Tennessee in the SECCG, but it looks like the two inevitably meet up again in whatever playoff format is used (though note the early, semifinal rematch with a standard 12-team bracket).

Poor Clemson dropped from a #4 ranking to #6 following an impressive 51-13 victory over unranked North Carolina. It looks like Michigan avenging their sole loss to Illinois both vaulted the Wolverines into the playoff, but also made the committee forget Ohio State had just lost to TSUN.

Georgia, showed up for the playoff, but looked lack luster in the NY6 Sugar Bowl against Kansas State, who was just barely edged at home in the playoff by Pac-12 Champ Oregon in what was surely a thrilling game.

Pre-Rivalry Week Conference Races of SIM 616
Georgia, LSU, Clemson, North Carolina, OSU/UM winner, and TCU are all locked into their respective CCGs. Tennessee and Alabama are beginning stadium prep for their play-in games.

Oregon-UCLA-Utah all went 1-1 against each other, with a rematch between some 2 of these guaranteed (and brass hoping 1-loss UCLA is one of those 2). If all 3 win, UCLA is the odd team out because of worst strength of conference record.

Four Big Ten West teams ranked from #34 to #54 (Illinois, Minnesota, Purdue, Iowa) are drawing straws to see who has a long shot chance at the Rose Bowl.

The Texas-Baylor winner has a decent shot at making Arlington, but if Kansas defeats Kansas State, they would jump Texas to make their first Big 12 Championship Game since 200... never.

#21 UCF is the only AAC team with a single conference loss; #35 Tulane-#51 Cincinnati is likely to produce the #2 team, but #39 SMU and #45 Houston also have only 2 losses, creating loads of possible tie-breaking scenarios.

#32 Coastal (10-1), #33 Troy (9-2), #40 UTSA (9-2) and #41 South Alabama (9-2) may have not only a shot at surpassing the American champ, but also a surprise Big Ten West Champ.

Rivalry Week Results Guesses on the pre-CCG rankings?
24-38 // #77 Georgia Tech (4-7) @ #1 Georgia (11-0)
28-40 // #4 Michigan (11-0) @ #2 Ohio St (11-0)
41-17 // #3 Tennessee (10-1) @ #99 Vanderbilt (3-8)
24-48 // #49 Iowa St (5-6) @ #5 TCU (10-1) *TCU lost to Texas*
64-27 // #6 LSU (9-2) @ #68 Texas A&M (4-7)
16-19 // #7 UCLA (10-1) @ #78 California (4-7)
13-14 // #48 Auburn (5-6) @ #8 Alabama (9-2)
24-17 // #9 Utah (9-2) @ #113 Colorado (1-10)
50-21 // #10 Oregon (9-2) @ #29 Oregon St (8-3) *Oregon lost to Utah*
0-49 // #46 Michigan St (6-5) @ #11 Penn State (9-2)
17-55 // #57 South Carolina (6-5) @ #12 Clemson (9-2) *Clemson lost to Miami*
38-31 // #13 NC State (9-2) @ #25 North Carolina (9-2) *UNC lost to Wake*
28-27 // #27 Mississippi St (7-4) @ #14 Ole Miss (9-2) *Ole Miss lost to Alabama*
19-12 // #15 Kansas (8-3) @ #20 Kansas St (7-4) *KSU lost to Baylor*
17-24 // #24 Baylor (7-4) @ #16 Texas (7-4) *UT lost to KU, BU to TCU*

The top 2 teams were easy, undefeated Ohio State and Georgia. The next 3 were pretty tightly packed (11-1 Tennessee, 11-1 Michigan, and 12-1 TCU). Tennessee got the nod for #3 because of their superior strength of schedule; TCU got the final spot because of their conference championship. 11-2 Oregon was ranked #6.

UNC defeated Clemson for their first ACC title in 42 years, though they lost to the Wolfpack in the regular season finale. NC State surprised with nabbing the Cotton spot opposite UCF, leaving UCLA and Utah just outside the NY6. Kansas (Kansas!?) won out to grab the 2nd spot in the XII CCG; although they lost to playoff-bound TCU, the 9-4 Jayhawks were afforded an opportunity to be drummed by 4 scores against SEC West Champion LSU.

In the playoffs it was chalk all the way until the finals, where #2 Ohio State defeated #1 Georgia. In the standard bracket, however, TCU was paired against Ohio State in the semis (while Georgia drew Tennessee) and pulled the upset only to fall to the Bulldogs in February (or, whenever the NCG is played in that format).

IMO, kinda like the current "Top 12" going to NY bowls that isn't purely by rank (except Top 4) -- I would say the 12-team playoff shouldn't either, necessarily (but mostly would).

Mainly, IMO, no more than 4 teams Automatically in from the same conference, unless said 4th team is in the Top 6. Right now, that'd shuffle things up a bit because said 4th team Could make it if at the bottom, there'd be another 4th team by rank. I'll explain why and how:

- Especially since UCF, Cinci, and Houston are going to the B12, you're RARELY going to see a G5 Champ be within the Top 11. Yes, 11. Meaning, the G5 Champ will take the "12th" spot, usually ranked 12-18.

- Of the P5 Conferences which threaten to have too-many -- basically, that's 5 conferences to take 11 spots. But right right now, we'd have *5* SEC teams taking the top 11 spots. WTF? No way. Gotta have restriction. Granted, Conf Championships and still a few games will heed this more, but this is all a just-in-case scenario.

- 5 Conferences in 11 spots, if divided equally would be 2.2 teams per conference. Obviously one getting a 3rd team should be expected, as it shouldn't be purposely evenly distributed.

- But a 4th? Sure. If they're in the top 50% -- the Top 6. But still trumps any next-in-line who would be a 4th team from a conference, if that may be so.

- This keeps conference distribution, within reason.

RIGHT NOW (Top 11 to fill):
1) Georgia [SEC=1]
2) Ohio State [B1G=1]
3) Michigan [B1G=2]
4) TCU [B12=1]
5) Tennessee [SEC=2]
6) Oregon [P12=1]
7) LSU [SEC=3]
8) USC [P12=2]
9) Alabama [SEC=4]
10) Clemson [ACC=1]
11) Ole Miss [SEC=5]
12) UCLA [P12=3]
13) Utah [P12=4]

- Alabama is initially skipped over as the 9th team in, and Clemson is.
- Next is Ole Miss, of the same conference as Alabama, so they're skipped over, for #12 UCLA to take the 10th spot.
- Next is Utah, of the same conference as UCLA but that's another 4th-team-same-conference -- so the 11th spot goes to the 1st one skipped over, Alabama.

So in the end it'd be:
1) Georgia
2) Ohio State
3) Michigan [B12=2]
4) TCU [B12=1]
5) Tennessee
6) Oregon
7) LSU
8) USC
9) Alabama* [SEC=4]
10) Clemson [ACC=1]
11) UCLA [P12=3]
**Ole Miss out; UCLA jumps over them as the 4th team from the same conference over the 5th team for a conference when said 5th team from the same conference isn't ranked 3+ levels better.

12) Tulane* [G5=1]

-----
Also, I would have it so that 1st round should be set to Strongly Avoid no teams from the same conference play each other, and to shift one team for another, if they're ranked back-to-back, to ensure no conf-game 1st rounders. The one who switched lower for the 1st round, if winning, can switch Back to where they'd be, prior.

(11-10-2022 02:23 AM)toddjnsn Wrote:  IMO, kinda like the current "Top 12" going to NY bowls that isn't purely by rank (except Top 4) -- I would say the 12-team playoff shouldn't either, necessarily (but mostly would).

Mainly, IMO, no more than 4 teams Automatically in from the same conference, unless said 4th team is in the Top 6. Right now, that'd shuffle things up a bit because said 4th team Could make it if at the bottom, there'd be another 4th team by rank. I'll explain why and how:

- Especially since UCF, Cinci, and Houston are going to the B12, you're RARELY going to see a G5 Champ be within the Top 11. Yes, 11. Meaning, the G5 Champ will take the "12th" spot, usually ranked 12-18.

- Of the P5 Conferences which threaten to have too-many -- basically, that's 5 conferences to take 11 spots. But right right now, we'd have *5* SEC teams taking the top 11 spots. WTF? No way. Gotta have restriction. Granted, Conf Championships and still a few games will heed this more, but this is all a just-in-case scenario.

- 5 Conferences in 11 spots, if divided equally would be 2.2 teams per conference. Obviously one getting a 3rd team should be expected, as it shouldn't be purposely evenly distributed.

- But a 4th? Sure. If they're in the top 50% -- the Top 6. But still trumps any next-in-line who would be a 4th team from a conference, if that may be so.

- This keeps conference distribution, within reason.

RIGHT NOW (Top 11 to fill):
1) Georgia [SEC=1]
2) Ohio State [B1G=1]
3) Michigan [B1G=2]
4) TCU [B12=1]
5) Tennessee [SEC=2]
6) Oregon [P12=1]
7) LSU [SEC=3]
8) USC [P12=2]
9) Alabama [SEC=4]
10) Clemson [ACC=1]
11) Ole Miss [SEC=5]
12) UCLA [P12=3]
13) Utah [P12=4]

- Alabama is initially skipped over as the 9th team in, and Clemson is.
- Next is Ole Miss, of the same conference as Alabama, so they're skipped over, for #12 UCLA to take the 10th spot.
- Next is Utah, of the same conference as UCLA but that's another 4th-team-same-conference -- so the 11th spot goes to the 1st one skipped over, Alabama.

So in the end it'd be:
1) Georgia
2) Ohio State
3) Michigan [B12=2]
4) TCU [B12=1]
5) Tennessee
6) Oregon
7) LSU
8) USC
9) Alabama* [SEC=4]
10) Clemson [ACC=1]
11) UCLA [P12=3]
**Ole Miss out; UCLA jumps over them as the 4th team from the same conference over the 5th team for a conference when said 5th team from the same conference isn't ranked 3+ levels better.

12) Tulane* [G5=1]

-----
Also, I would have it so that 1st round should be set to Strongly Avoid no teams from the same conference play each other, and to shift one team for another, if they're ranked back-to-back, to ensure no conf-game 1st rounders. The one who switched lower for the 1st round, if winning, can switch Back to where they'd be, prior.

I do like the idea of rank-based flexibility… for exhibition bowls.

For the playoff you can set aside a few quota spots (ie. Top 6 champs), but overall you want to reward the best teams.

Maybe modify the quota system, but you’d start by axing that 6th champ and I don’t think there is the political appetite for that.

My favorite modification is that a conference champ gets in over an at large with half their rank. So, #22 UCF gets preference over #11 UCLA; UCLA would still get the twelfth playoff spot and seeds would still be done by true rank. Such a modification puts a “Top 25” threshold for that G5 champ (no 9-4 Houston) but also allows a 7th (or maybe 8th) champ to get in if ranked high enough.