(04-09-2022 06:41 PM)TealNation Wrote:  

(04-09-2022 06:25 PM)AppfanInCAAland Wrote:  I would actually endorse a 40 team super league for college football if it included some sort of European-style promotion/relegation scheme so that programs that exhibit a sustained ability to succeed year over year had a chance to elevate into it and ones that can not in time get downgraded.

That'd be great, but a bit too fair and inclusive. I believe it'll be more of a "If you can't pour endless amounts of money into your college football program, you won't be here." type deal. The money will make them "super" in an elevated way that money makes the P5 "power" schools. Doubt this league will care if you're actually successful on the field or not.

Our CFB guest heisman voter Brent Beaird of First Coast News said on our show yesterday he’s heard projections that the SEC payout could be $100m per school per year by 2030.

Time stamp for the beginning of our interview is 14:30. I ask him a couple questions about the CUSA/SB split and how the group of 5 is faring in the transfer portal era:

https://go.audacy.com/H83Hsswo6ob

Might be cool to have a school from each state that sponsors FBS ball. That'd be 40 or so then another 24 at-large to round it out, with 4, 16 team regional conferences. NW, NE, SW, SE. That's how I'd design it anyway. Most states have only one major University anyways. Then the fans of each state could take some pride in their representing school even if it wasn't their first choice of teams to root for. They would no longer be competing with the first choice in many cases.

States like Texas and California would have to pare down a good bit to take only the best/biggest from those states, or any with an inordinate amount of of P6 schools.

Then the rest of us would round out FBS and make it much more interesting and competitive. Roughly another 64 teams following the same format.

I think a majority of people have felt this split is coming. As for Dubo, lets see how good he is without the OC and DC that have carried him.

(04-09-2022 09:29 PM)Usajags Wrote:  Where we are right now is different. The NCAA has essentially relinquished all of its power. NIL and the transfer portal are a complete disaster. NIL was meant to be an opportunity for guys to sit in a car dealership and sign autographs for a couple hours for a few hundred dollars, not a million dollar shoe deal to never be seen in said shoes. The transfer portal along with the NIL has created a lawless free agency and rosters in college with no salary cap.

And let’s not forget, the NCAA does not crown an FBS football champion, the only sport they don’t crown a champion.

Well.... There actually is a NCAA division 1 football tournament and national championship every year.....

I know, I know...

Swiney is a used car salesman that will say whatever benefits him during the moment.

(04-09-2022 07:06 PM)Usajags Wrote:  The only school the SEC will drop is Vandy. The ACC will drop a few, the PAC12 will drop a lot, the B1G will drop a few and almost all of the Big XII will be in the boat with us.

The MAC would droll all over themselves for Purdue or Northwestern, the AAC would swallow Wake, Duke and Syracuse. We would jump all over Vandy or any other SEC cast off. And the MW would accept any PAC12 left over.

This will solely be a football breakaway, oth sports will still play in the traditional SEC, ACC, B1G.

IF such a breakaway occurs, it seems more likely to me that the SEC and B1G simply poach a few more of the top ACC/PAC 12 teams and then form their super conference division. That's far less messy than trying to carve up the existing conferences.

(04-10-2022 07:46 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(04-09-2022 07:06 PM)Usajags Wrote:  The only school the SEC will drop is Vandy. The ACC will drop a few, the PAC12 will drop a lot, the B1G will drop a few and almost all of the Big XII will be in the boat with us.

The MAC would droll all over themselves for Purdue or Northwestern, the AAC would swallow Wake, Duke and Syracuse. We would jump all over Vandy or any other SEC cast off. And the MW would accept any PAC12 left over.

This will solely be a football breakaway, oth sports will still play in the traditional SEC, ACC, B1G.

IF such a breakaway occurs, it seems more likely to me that the SEC and B1G simply poach a few more of the top ACC/PAC 12 teams and then form their super conference division. That's far less messy than trying to carve up the existing conferences.

SEC and B1G add USC, Oregon, Kansas, Clemson, UNC, Notre Dame and 4 schools TBD.

Bam! 40 team super league split into two conferences.

If this is entirely football driven they certainly wouldn’t want Kansas.

Two P5 divisions are inevitable much like the NFL driven by the west response to power consolidation in the east. The west will position themselves to hold on to western talent with their own championship. The G5 thrives as a result when the pie doubles in size. Everybody gets what they want.

If Sweeney had his way, assuming his stated average of 45 schools would split apart as an autonomous group, the selection process to identify the 25 schools who would (dare I use the word) "relegate" to something lower in the pecking order, would create a cataclysmic fault line in college sports that would play out for years. I don't see this happening. Too much history, money, and "status" involved.

What I do think can happen is at least the current P5 Conferences would declare, as a group, that they were divorced from the NCAA and, as a natural consequence, force Notre Dame to declare. A separate governance group would emerge. IN fact, most of us see that happening.

The G5 would then be the Division 1 of the NCAA, and likely go to a post-season championship playoff using lower level bowls to do playoffs. In that scenarios, I could see some higher performing FCS conferences, perhaps, deciding to move up, if the TV money is there. But if its not, then the NCAA would be structured as follows for the long term, all with autonomous playoffs governed by the NCAA:

FBS - 61 teams with 5 current conference members + 4 Indies (when all realignment is concluded assuming what we know today)
FCS - 125 teams in 14 current conferences
Div 2 - 169 teams in 17 current football playing conferences + any Indies
Div 3 - 250 teams in 30 current football playing conferences + any Indies

In the Autonomy Group (P5), it might be that certain standards are established within each conference that weed out the lowest performing members in order to whittle down the numbers a bit, but I doubt wholesale cutting of the current 79-P5 schools would occur. In fact, personally, I doubt that ANY whittling down will be done at all unless TV plays a factor and pulls that particular lever.

(04-10-2022 01:54 PM)Cnelson203 Wrote:  If Sweeney had his way, assuming his stated average of 45 schools would split apart as an autonomous group, the selection process to identify the 25 schools who would (dare I use the word) "relegate" to something lower in the pecking order, would create a cataclysmic fault line in college sports that would play out for years. I don't see this happening. Too much history, money, and "status" involved.

What I do think can happen is at least the current P5 Conferences would declare, as a group, that they were divorced from the NCAA and, as a natural consequence, force Notre Dame to declare. A separate governance group would emerge. IN fact, most of us see that happening.

The G5 would then be the Division 1 of the NCAA, and likely go to a post-season championship playoff using lower level bowls to do playoffs. In that scenarios, I could see some higher performing FCS conferences, perhaps, deciding to move up, if the TV money is there. But if its not, then the NCAA would be structured as follows for the long term, all with autonomous playoffs governed by the NCAA:

FBS - 61 teams with 5 current conference members + 4 Indies (when all realignment is concluded assuming what we know today)
FCS - 125 teams in 14 current conferences
Div 2 - 169 teams in 17 current football playing conferences + any Indies
Div 3 - 250 teams in 30 current football playing conferences + any Indies

In the Autonomy Group (P5), it might be that certain standards are established within each conference that weed out the lowest performing members in order to whittle down the numbers a bit, but I doubt wholesale cutting of the current 79-P5 schools would occur. In fact, personally, I doubt that ANY whittling down will be done at all unless TV plays a factor and pulls that particular lever.

To much common sense. Universities outside of the SEC not named Ohio state want and need championships. Politics gets in the way and bam everybody gets a trophy. The G5 comes along for the ride. Separation will never happen in a vacuum. To many egos get involved when public universities share the pot.

(04-09-2022 04:24 PM)APPdiesel Wrote:  New quote in an article on ESPN making the rounds. Dabo Swinney sees 40 or 50 schools breaking away and forming a new division.

“I think there’s going to be a complete blowup … and there needs to be,” Swinney told ESPN. “I think eventually there will be some type of break and another division. Right now, you got everybody in one group, and it’s not feasible. Alabama has different problems than Middle Tennessee, but we’re trying to make them all the same and it’s just not. I think you’ll have 40 or 50 teams and a commissioner and here are the rules.”

So…If only 40 or 50 schools make this future super division do the 15-25 castoffs reform into their own conferences (imagining the truly atrocious geography), seek to join group of fives, or blow them all up and start over? I can’t imagine top G5s clamoring to join up with the Rutgers, Oregon States, and Vanderbilts of the world.

I could see the Sun Belt holding pat, only approaching a surprise cast off like South Carolina, being the conference that stands strong and comes out much better in the end while CUSA’s core try to stiff arm the newbies and re-form with a few P5 cast offs.

At least he isn't a hypocite...

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

I have seen realignment described in terms of market dynamics as “realignment will continue until the tip-top brands consolidate enough to realize their true value. Only then equilibrium will occur.”

While economics is not a physical science, I think the described effect is accurate

By whatever metric you measure brand power, there is no gentle slope between Texas A&M and Syracuse. There is a hard break between them and that is why there is no consolidation scenario in which they remain together.

The top of the top by brand value will not be held back by the Oregon State tier just because of past relationships. If relationships and tradition mattered more than money, then realignment never would have started.

So let’s be honest, the top of the top is a lot fewer than 50 or even 40. And while I am sure the big boys will want to include some cannon fodder in large media markets, the equilibrium point might end up being closer to 25 or 30. No one nationally is lining up for the rights to the Arkansas media market and the Razorbacks as a team are basically irrelevant nationally already. Why would they be included?

Even the national super league scenario would still tie down the biggest brands and might restrict their growth. Unlike pro sports leagues, the big college football teams predate the leagues and have moved around between different leagues far more than any pro team would. The schools have the power, not the leagues.

So how about the following scenario? I would not be surprised if we saw a complete blowup of leagues as Texas A&M, Georgia, Notre Dame etc realize they can cash in more brand value on their own than under a conference umbrella with small competitors.

If you’re ESPN do you want to be obligated to present a UK vs. Vanderbilt that doesn’t move any ratings dials nationally or would you prefer to get exclusive rights to UF every weekend - guaranteeing a national audience? The future might look like every mega football school having their own Longhorn Network deal and barnstorming nationally. Kind of like how college sports was in the pre-TV era or even the way big boxing fights are arranged. Won’t that be fun?

(04-10-2022 05:34 PM)Oldyeller Wrote:  

(04-10-2022 01:54 PM)Cnelson203 Wrote:  If Sweeney had his way, assuming his stated average of 45 schools would split apart as an autonomous group, the selection process to identify the 25 schools who would (dare I use the word) "relegate" to something lower in the pecking order, would create a cataclysmic fault line in college sports that would play out for years. I don't see this happening. Too much history, money, and "status" involved.

What I do think can happen is at least the current P5 Conferences would declare, as a group, that they were divorced from the NCAA and, as a natural consequence, force Notre Dame to declare. A separate governance group would emerge. IN fact, most of us see that happening.

The G5 would then be the Division 1 of the NCAA, and likely go to a post-season championship playoff using lower level bowls to do playoffs. In that scenarios, I could see some higher performing FCS conferences, perhaps, deciding to move up, if the TV money is there. But if its not, then the NCAA would be structured as follows for the long term, all with autonomous playoffs governed by the NCAA:

FBS - 61 teams with 5 current conference members + 4 Indies (when all realignment is concluded assuming what we know today)
FCS - 125 teams in 14 current conferences
Div 2 - 169 teams in 17 current football playing conferences + any Indies
Div 3 - 250 teams in 30 current football playing conferences + any Indies

In the Autonomy Group (P5), it might be that certain standards are established within each conference that weed out the lowest performing members in order to whittle down the numbers a bit, but I doubt wholesale cutting of the current 79-P5 schools would occur. In fact, personally, I doubt that ANY whittling down will be done at all unless TV plays a factor and pulls that particular lever.

To much common sense. Universities outside of the SEC not named Ohio state want and need championships. Politics gets in the way and bam everybody gets a trophy. The G5 comes along for the ride. Separation will never happen in a vacuum. To many egos get involved when public universities share the pot.

The only consistent motivating force in realignment is money. As the payout increases, the comparative cost of alienating the stakeholders decreases. Universities care about championships now… BUT

If a school was given the option of capitalizing on their national alumni audience (Michigan, Penn State, Texas… few schools have this) and invited to join a league with $250MM in annual revenue sharing, I think they would shut up and sign very quickly. So fast your head would spin, as someone might put it.

There's no need for the 50 Big Money schools to form a new division. They already get favorable treatment from their respective state legislatures, the NCAA, and Big Media. They need the NCAA model for the non-revenue sports and they're not losing a dime in the current structure. Remember that Division I-A/FBS Football is the ONLY NCAA sport that does NOT have an NCAA Championship and it's always been driven by Big Media. First, it was the Newspapers and their reporters who voted to crown a National Champion. Bowls were created as a "charitable" money skimming scheme and they were hyped by reporters who took their cut. That system lasted until 1992 when the Bowl Coalition was created to force a de facto NC Game. It didn't work and neither did the restructured Bowl Alliance in 1994. In 1998 BCS Properties, LLC was formed and the Pac-10 and Big-10 finally agreed to send their Rose Bowl pick IF it had NC implications. It wasn't until 2006 that it became a separate game. Of course, BCS Properties, LLC owns the College Football Playoff. Try to find out who the members are of BCS Properties, LLC.

(04-11-2022 06:30 AM)Eagles Cliff Wrote:  There's no need for the 50 Big Money schools to form a new division. They already get favorable treatment from their respective state legislatures, the NCAA, and Big Media. They need the NCAA model for the non-revenue sports and they're not losing a dime in the current structure. Remember that Division I-A/FBS Football is the ONLY NCAA sport that does NOT have an NCAA Championship and it's always been driven by Big Media. First, it was the Newspapers and their reporters who voted to crown a National Champion. Bowls were created as a "charitable" money skimming scheme and they were hyped by reporters who took their cut. That system lasted until 1992 when the Bowl Coalition was created to force a de facto NC Game. It didn't work and neither did the restructured Bowl Alliance in 1994. In 1998 BCS Properties, LLC was formed and the Pac-10 and Big-10 finally agreed to send their Rose Bowl pick IF it had NC implications. It wasn't until 2006 that it became a separate game. Of course, BCS Properties, LLC owns the College Football Playoff. Try to find out who the members are of BCS Properties, LLC.

Since when has “we have enough money now, we don’t need to pursue more even though we can” guided any college sports decision? As you lay out, college football has gravitated toward raising revenue for decades.

If its just 40-50 P5 teams that leave, Id actually be just fine with that. There'd be 15-20 P5s that dont make the cut. Add them to the G5 leagues and there is enough name recognition and cache to still have significant national interest. It would level the playing field and allow the new D1 (not semi-pro) league to create some sensible rules and reign in the NIL, coaching salaries and transfer chaos etc. And best of all, create a real national championship playoff. In the Sun Belt footprint, we'd have teams like Wake Forrest, UCF, Vanderbilt back in the mix. I hope they do it for basketball too. If they leave, make them leave for everything.

(04-11-2022 08:58 AM)monarx Wrote:  If its just 40-50 P5 teams that leave, Id actually be just fine with that. There'd be 15-20 P5s that dont make the cut. Add them to the G5 leagues and there is enough name recognition and cache to still have significant national interest. It would level the playing field and allow the new D1 (not semi-pro) league to create some sensible rules and reign in the NIL, coaching salaries and transfer chaos etc. And best of all, create a real national championship playoff. In the Sun Belt footprint, we'd have teams like Wake Forrest, UCF, Vanderbilt back in the mix. I hope they do it for basketball too. If they leave, make them leave for everything.

If they leave for football, they need to be out of the NCAA for ALL sports. That's the leverage the other 200 schools have. Their non-revenue sports would take a big hit in travel costs that may offset any financial gain realized from football. I agree that a professional minor league is a great solution. Here's hoping the USFL can turn itself into that and go get high school players or the 5-star Freshmen and Sophomores.

As a G5 fan I think I'd lose a lot of interest in P4/P5 (whatever it turns out to be) if there is a breakaway. A league of 40-50 teams would average out to less than 1 team per state and hardly represent amateur sports or what I'm interested it. I wonder how many others would lose interest in P4/P5 sports and how much of an affect that would have on viewership. Yes there needs to be a limit somewhere but 40-50 teams is ridiculous. Let them break away. I wouldn't like it but it might end up hurting them as much as the G5.

Discounting political influence in any change scenario is misguided. No amount of money will relegate 100% of the G5 and 40% of the P5 to less lucrative positions out on an island with out stepping in a political beehive. It's total separation or nothing. When total separation occurs the bottom of the P5 realizes that their position is no longer tenable with the losses unacceptable and begins pushing for two divisions much like the NFL and again BAM the G5 becomes relevant in the overall success of that arrangement. This scenario is so clearly the outcome that the bottom will get pushed down no matter the arrangement needing the G5 to remain viable. There is no scenario that excludes the G5 and it's long term success. It's the snake eating it's own tail.