(04-06-2022 07:08 AM)b2b Wrote:  

(04-05-2022 09:02 PM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  

(04-05-2022 12:31 PM)b2b Wrote:  Keep thinking UCF will be making $40M from the Big 12...

I think a lot of you are going to be surprised at the new TV deal for the Big XII. It's going to be a lot better than most of you believe it will be.

It'll be around $20M per school.no chance it approaches $40M. That's just insanity.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

Well the companies that do this for a living think that even the new Big 12 will distribute over $50 million a year to schools after all revenues (TV, Playoffs, Basketball Credits, etc). So I will believe them before some butthurt message board fan.

(04-06-2022 03:23 PM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(04-06-2022 07:08 AM)b2b Wrote:  

(04-05-2022 09:02 PM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  

(04-05-2022 12:31 PM)b2b Wrote:  Keep thinking UCF will be making $40M from the Big 12...

I think a lot of you are going to be surprised at the new TV deal for the Big XII. It's going to be a lot better than most of you believe it will be.

It'll be around $20M per school.no chance it approaches $40M. That's just insanity.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

Well the companies that do this for a living think that even the new Big 12 will distribute over $50 million a year to schools after all revenues (TV, Playoffs, Basketball Credits, etc). So I will believe them before some butthurt message board fan.

Who says I'm "butthurt"? I was initially thinking just TV $$$. I stand corrected. I still think $40M seems incredibly optimistic post UT and OU.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

(04-06-2022 04:35 PM)b2b Wrote:  

(04-06-2022 03:23 PM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(04-06-2022 07:08 AM)b2b Wrote:  

(04-05-2022 09:02 PM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  

(04-05-2022 12:31 PM)b2b Wrote:  Keep thinking UCF will be making $40M from the Big 12...

I think a lot of you are going to be surprised at the new TV deal for the Big XII. It's going to be a lot better than most of you believe it will be.

It'll be around $20M per school.no chance it approaches $40M. That's just insanity.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

Well the companies that do this for a living think that even the new Big 12 will distribute over $50 million a year to schools after all revenues (TV, Playoffs, Basketball Credits, etc). So I will believe them before some butthurt message board fan.

Who says I'm "butthurt"? I was initially thinking just TV $$$. I stand corrected. I still think $40M seems incredibly optimistic post UT and OU.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

https://nvgt.com/blog/p5-payout-estimate...expansion/

This assumes a 12 team playoff when the time comes, but even before then, its $41.3 million in 2023 for Big 12 teams and $52.6 when the playoff expands and a new TV contract in 2026.

Even if that is lofty, I'm still not worried that its going to be $20 million.

Well congrats on that. UCF deserves it for all the work they've put in the past 20+ years. I hate that ECU is left behind in this mess but we're lying in the bed we've made unfortunately.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

Beaten to death but man would Southern Miss, Georgia St., And Marshall tie that map together nicely.

(04-06-2022 03:23 PM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(04-06-2022 07:08 AM)b2b Wrote:  

(04-05-2022 09:02 PM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  

(04-05-2022 12:31 PM)b2b Wrote:  Keep thinking UCF will be making $40M from the Big 12...

I think a lot of you are going to be surprised at the new TV deal for the Big XII. It's going to be a lot better than most of you believe it will be.

It'll be around $20M per school.no chance it approaches $40M. That's just insanity.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

Well the companies that do this for a living think that even the new Big 12 will distribute over $50 million a year to schools after all revenues (TV, Playoffs, Basketball Credits, etc). So I will believe them before some butthurt message board fan.

Here is a link of what the Big12 has been paying per school last few years.
https://triblive.com/sports/big-12-reven...er-school/
I think the payout will definitely be better than the AAC, but expecting the payout without OU and Texas and more mouths to divide it by to be 50 million when they haven’t been 40 million now is really expecting too much.
Right now Big12 gets about 78 million a year from CFP that they divide by 10 schools, if they go to 12 or more that money doesn’t increase but get divided by more. So unless their tv contract increases from the 20 million per team currently and new CFP contract increases their payout. You are going to basically see at most 35 million per team total

(04-11-2022 10:29 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(04-06-2022 03:23 PM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(04-06-2022 07:08 AM)b2b Wrote:  

(04-05-2022 09:02 PM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  

(04-05-2022 12:31 PM)b2b Wrote:  Keep thinking UCF will be making $40M from the Big 12...

I think a lot of you are going to be surprised at the new TV deal for the Big XII. It's going to be a lot better than most of you believe it will be.

It'll be around $20M per school.no chance it approaches $40M. That's just insanity.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

Well the companies that do this for a living think that even the new Big 12 will distribute over $50 million a year to schools after all revenues (TV, Playoffs, Basketball Credits, etc). So I will believe them before some butthurt message board fan.

Here is a link of what the Big12 has been paying per school last few years.
https://triblive.com/sports/big-12-reven...er-school/
I think the payout will definitely be better than the AAC, but expecting the payout without OU and Texas and more mouths to divide it by to be 50 million when they haven’t been 40 million now is really expecting too much.
Right now Big12 gets about 78 million a year from CFP that they divide by 10 schools, if they go to 12 or more that money doesn’t increase but get divided by more. So unless their tv contract increases from the 20 million per team currently and new CFP contract increases their payout. You are going to basically see at most 35 million per team total

I think the thought process to get anywhere close to that is the new 12 team playoff starts and the "P5" conferences get massive raises from the CFP money.

(04-12-2022 07:19 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(04-11-2022 10:29 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(04-06-2022 03:23 PM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(04-06-2022 07:08 AM)b2b Wrote:  

(04-05-2022 09:02 PM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  I think a lot of you are going to be surprised at the new TV deal for the Big XII. It's going to be a lot better than most of you believe it will be.

It'll be around $20M per school.no chance it approaches $40M. That's just insanity.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

Well the companies that do this for a living think that even the new Big 12 will distribute over $50 million a year to schools after all revenues (TV, Playoffs, Basketball Credits, etc). So I will believe them before some butthurt message board fan.

Here is a link of what the Big12 has been paying per school last few years.
https://triblive.com/sports/big-12-reven...er-school/
I think the payout will definitely be better than the AAC, but expecting the payout without OU and Texas and more mouths to divide it by to be 50 million when they haven’t been 40 million now is really expecting too much.
Right now Big12 gets about 78 million a year from CFP that they divide by 10 schools, if they go to 12 or more that money doesn’t increase but get divided by more. So unless their tv contract increases from the 20 million per team currently and new CFP contract increases their payout. You are going to basically see at most 35 million per team total

I think the thought process to get anywhere close to that is the new 12 team playoff starts and the "P5" conferences get massive raises from the CFP money.

Even without a 12 team playoff, the playoff contract will go out for bid publicly and be a massive bump in revenue. One of the main points of the ACC/B1G/PAC alliance was to keep the SEC from just reupping with ESPN for the playoff and to coordinate together to make sure the playoff reaches the open market for bidding. That will be a bump in revenue for all P5 conferences already. Expanding the inventory of it to 12 would just be an even bigger bump in revenue.

(04-12-2022 08:44 AM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  Even without a 12 team playoff, the playoff contract will go out for bid publicly and be a massive bump in revenue. One of the main points of the ACC/B1G/PAC alliance was to keep the SEC from just reupping with ESPN for the playoff and to coordinate together to make sure the playoff reaches the open market for bidding. That will be a bump in revenue for all P5 conferences already. Expanding the inventory of it to 12 would just be an even bigger bump in revenue.

This windfall assumes that the Big 12 will be treated by the other P5's and the CFP the same as they are with UT and OU. I don't think that's going to happen. That said, the Big 12 will have basketball going for it in a big way.

(04-12-2022 08:44 AM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(04-12-2022 07:19 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(04-11-2022 10:29 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(04-06-2022 03:23 PM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(04-06-2022 07:08 AM)b2b Wrote:  It'll be around $20M per school.no chance it approaches $40M. That's just insanity.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

Well the companies that do this for a living think that even the new Big 12 will distribute over $50 million a year to schools after all revenues (TV, Playoffs, Basketball Credits, etc). So I will believe them before some butthurt message board fan.

Here is a link of what the Big12 has been paying per school last few years.
https://triblive.com/sports/big-12-reven...er-school/
I think the payout will definitely be better than the AAC, but expecting the payout without OU and Texas and more mouths to divide it by to be 50 million when they haven’t been 40 million now is really expecting too much.
Right now Big12 gets about 78 million a year from CFP that they divide by 10 schools, if they go to 12 or more that money doesn’t increase but get divided by more. So unless their tv contract increases from the 20 million per team currently and new CFP contract increases their payout. You are going to basically see at most 35 million per team total

I think the thought process to get anywhere close to that is the new 12 team playoff starts and the "P5" conferences get massive raises from the CFP money.

Even without a 12 team playoff, the playoff contract will go out for bid publicly and be a massive bump in revenue. One of the main points of the ACC/B1G/PAC alliance was to keep the SEC from just reupping with ESPN for the playoff and to coordinate together to make sure the playoff reaches the open market for bidding. That will be a bump in revenue for all P5 conferences already. Expanding the inventory of it to 12 would just be an even bigger bump in revenue.

If I’m the Big12 I’m pushing playoff expansion with all my might. If it goes to new contract as a 4 team playoff and the Big12 doesn’t have OU or UT, they will be at the mercy of SEC and Alliance to keep getting same share as them. Not a good place to be

There is no point at which I thought - or would have thought - that since we are G5 and pulling in G5 money that we might as well be in a conference with Texas State and ULM instead of USF and Navy.

(04-05-2022 12:31 PM)b2b Wrote:  

(04-05-2022 09:58 AM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(04-04-2022 06:39 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(04-04-2022 03:27 PM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  There should be some serious reorganization through the bible belt and up the east coast to create more compactness like the MAC. Creates better rivalries and significantly lowers the cost of non-revenue sports.

Or not. The B12 makes the AAC look like a geographically sensible conference, who the hell cares it's the strongest and most lucrative possible alignment and that's why it's being done. I'm sure if the most regional alignments G5 alignments possible made the strongest and most financially lucrative leagues possible they would have happened by now.

I mean its different when conference distributions justify it. A P5 league paying out $40 million+ a year to the schools can afford the travel burden way easier than a G5 league paying out pennies by comparison. Charlotte making $2.5 million or ECU making $7 million and having to travel as far as WVU making $40 million is a huge difference.

Keep thinking UCF will be making $40M from the Big 12... other than that your point is valid.

Agree, 20 mil is much more likely.

(04-12-2022 06:42 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(04-05-2022 12:31 PM)b2b Wrote:  

(04-05-2022 09:58 AM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(04-04-2022 06:39 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(04-04-2022 03:27 PM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  There should be some serious reorganization through the bible belt and up the east coast to create more compactness like the MAC. Creates better rivalries and significantly lowers the cost of non-revenue sports.

Or not. The B12 makes the AAC look like a geographically sensible conference, who the hell cares it's the strongest and most lucrative possible alignment and that's why it's being done. I'm sure if the most regional alignments G5 alignments possible made the strongest and most financially lucrative leagues possible they would have happened by now.

I mean its different when conference distributions justify it. A P5 league paying out $40 million+ a year to the schools can afford the travel burden way easier than a G5 league paying out pennies by comparison. Charlotte making $2.5 million or ECU making $7 million and having to travel as far as WVU making $40 million is a huge difference.

Keep thinking UCF will be making $40M from the Big 12... other than that your point is valid.

Agree, 20 mil is much more likely.

It all depends on the TV contract, to that you can add about 8 million per team from CFP and Bowl games, 2 million from NCAA tv units.

So overall more than 20,but less than 40

(04-04-2022 02:07 PM)Surbadger Wrote:  This map gives a visual for all the G5 conferences. You can see the overlapping. If I made any mistakes, please let me know and I'll fix them.

FBS G5 Conferences Map

Please add Wichita State to the map. It's an AAC member for all sports other than football. Thanks.

(04-12-2022 07:08 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(04-12-2022 06:42 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(04-05-2022 12:31 PM)b2b Wrote:  

(04-05-2022 09:58 AM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(04-04-2022 06:39 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  Or not. The B12 makes the AAC look like a geographically sensible conference, who the hell cares it's the strongest and most lucrative possible alignment and that's why it's being done. I'm sure if the most regional alignments G5 alignments possible made the strongest and most financially lucrative leagues possible they would have happened by now.

I mean its different when conference distributions justify it. A P5 league paying out $40 million+ a year to the schools can afford the travel burden way easier than a G5 league paying out pennies by comparison. Charlotte making $2.5 million or ECU making $7 million and having to travel as far as WVU making $40 million is a huge difference.

Keep thinking UCF will be making $40M from the Big 12... other than that your point is valid.

Agree, 20 mil is much more likely.

It all depends on the TV contract, to that you can add about 8 million per team from CFP and Bowl games, 2 million from NCAA tv units.

So overall more than 20,but less than 40

The stark reality is the die has already been cast and the revenue Gap within the P5 will eventually separate that division. Enjoy the raise and everything, but schools making $40M a year aren't going to be consistently competitive versus schools making $100M. That doesn't mean there isn't a bright future ahead. Systemic change will create new opportunity once we all realize there is a better way to administrate college football.

(04-12-2022 08:19 PM)Pirate Rep Wrote:  

(04-12-2022 07:08 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(04-12-2022 06:42 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(04-05-2022 12:31 PM)b2b Wrote:  

(04-05-2022 09:58 AM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  
I mean its different when conference distributions justify it. A P5 league paying out $40 million+ a year to the schools can afford the travel burden way easier than a G5 league paying out pennies by comparison. Charlotte making $2.5 million or ECU making $7 million and having to travel as far as WVU making $40 million is a huge difference.

Keep thinking UCF will be making $40M from the Big 12... other than that your point is valid.

Agree, 20 mil is much more likely.

It all depends on the TV contract, to that you can add about 8 million per team from CFP and Bowl games, 2 million from NCAA tv units.

So overall more than 20,but less than 40

The stark reality is the die has already been cast and the revenue Gap within the P5 will eventually separate that division. Enjoy the raise and everything, but schools making $40M a year aren't going to be consistently competitive versus schools making $100M. That doesn't mean there isn't a bright future ahead. Systemic change will create new opportunity once we all realize there is a better way to administrate college football.

That may be the case, but Cincy FB and Houston MBB have proven that it is possible to do so.

Moreover, overall, the non-P5 schools have been becoming more, not less competitive, since the inception of the P5.

Football:

The number of non-P5 football teams that have finished in the final top 25 has quadrupled (from 1.5 in 2012 and 2013 to 6.25 between 2018 and 2021) over the past decade:

.........Number of Final
..........Top 25 Teams:

2012............2
2013............1
2014............3
2015............3
2016............3
2017............4
2018............6
2019............7
2020............8
2021............6

.

Men's Basketball:

Since 1985, when the NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams, there have been more tournaments with major upsets in the past decade than there were in the previous 25 NCAA tournaments, and the 2021 and 2022 tournaments were the first two back-to-back tourneys featuring 12+ major upsets.

...........Major NCAA
...........Tournament
.............Upsets*^

2013.........11
2014.........13
2016.........10
2018.........11
2020.........11
2021.........14
2022.........12

"Major Upsets" were defined as defeats of a more highly-seeded team by a team seeded at least 7 spots below the more highly-seeded team (e.g., a 5-seed being beaten by an 11 seed).

^The vast majority (85% to 95%) of these major upsets were upsets of P5 teams by non-P5 teams.

In the 29 seasons played between 1985 and 2013, there were only five NCAA tournaments with 10+ major upsets (in 1985, 1986, 1990, 2006, and 2011).

In comparison, in the past decade, there have been seven NCAA tournaments with 10+ major upsets - - more than there were over the past 29 years.

.

Data such as these make it clear that the P5 teams aren't pulling away from the non-P5s. To the contrary, the non-P5 teams are becoming more competitive with them than ever.

.

(04-12-2022 09:40 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(04-12-2022 08:19 PM)Pirate Rep Wrote:  

(04-12-2022 07:08 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(04-12-2022 06:42 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(04-05-2022 12:31 PM)b2b Wrote:  Keep thinking UCF will be making $40M from the Big 12... other than that your point is valid.

Agree, 20 mil is much more likely.

It all depends on the TV contract, to that you can add about 8 million per team from CFP and Bowl games, 2 million from NCAA tv units.

So overall more than 20,but less than 40

The stark reality is the die has already been cast and the revenue Gap within the P5 will eventually separate that division. Enjoy the raise and everything, but schools making $40M a year aren't going to be consistently competitive versus schools making $100M. That doesn't mean there isn't a bright future ahead. Systemic change will create new opportunity once we all realize there is a better way to administrate college football.

That may be the case, but Cincy FB and Houston MBB have proven that it is possible to do so.

Moreover, overall, the non-P5 schools have been becoming more, not less competitive, since the inception of the P5.

Football:

The number of non-P5 football teams that have finished in the final top 25 has quadrupled (from 1.5 in 2012 and 2013 to 6.25 between 2018 and 2021) over the past decade:

.........Number of Final
..........Top 25 Teams:

2012............2
2013............1
2014............3
2015............3
2016............3
2017............4
2018............6
2019............7
2020............8
2021............6

.

Men's Basketball:

Since 1985, when the NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams, there have been more tournaments with major upsets in the past decade than there were in the previous 25 NCAA tournaments, and the 2021 and 2022 tournaments were the first two back-to-back tourneys featuring 12+ major upsets.

...........Major NCAA
...........Tournament
.............Upsets*^

2013.........11
2014.........13
2016.........10
2018.........11
2020.........11
2021.........14
2022.........12

"Major Upsets" were defined as defeats of a more highly-seeded team by a team seeded at least 7 spots below the more highly-seeded team (e.g., a 5-seed being beaten by an 11 seed).

^The vast majority (85% to 95%) of these major upsets were upsets of P5 teams by non-P5 teams.

In the 29 seasons played between 1985 and 2013, there were only five NCAA tournaments with 10+ major upsets (in 1985, 1986, 1990, 2006, and 2011).

In comparison, in the past decade, there have been seven NCAA tournaments with 10+ major upsets - - more than there were over the past 29 years.

.

Data such as these make it clear that the P5 teams aren't pulling away from the non-P5s. To the contrary, the non-P5 teams are becoming more competitive with them than ever.

.

Nice try, but at this point it's all about football and winning. Major resources are being allocated to the Big Ten and SEC. PAC12 will be a distant 3rd.

Maybe after the SEC or Big Ten win the natty for 13 of the next 15 seasons you'll be convinced of the divide. The money and it's affect are coming. It's a demographic game changer!