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Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others:
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DawgNBama Offline
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Post: #201
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others:
(05-16-2022 05:20 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(05-15-2022 10:22 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  
(05-15-2022 07:31 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(05-15-2022 06:50 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  
(05-15-2022 06:25 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  Larry Scott would make a lot of people look good imo.


Getting everyone aligned that there is a existential problem would give them a chance, but the inherent issues remain. Low fan interest in combination with location means the Pac12 MUST become less Pac.

I do think they benefited from getting someone that isn't a career president or AD. Unlike the Big 12, the Pac12 SHOULD have unity if they can remain halfway close to P2.

I just don't know what network will want to go long on a conference with declining demographics and performance.

I think their primary chance is to borrow against the future on their deal- punting it down the road and hope something changes. Get a front loaded deal in exchange for giving the network length and a deal on the back half.

Performance where? Football and basketball, yes, all other sports, not a chance. What demographics? 6 of the 10 fastest growing states are all inside the PAC's footprint and if they were to expand into Texas that would give them 7.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-...ing-states

The demise of population in the west is overblown and as I previously stated, if the PAC expands into Texas they re-coup those Californians that are leaving.

Football and basketball are all that matter.

Demographics- as in people that watch college athletics, in particular Pac12 vs Pac12. This isn’t the T3 era of realignment in which raw population was king, but that too was an issue for the P12 in part because locals don’t care as much as in the Midwest or south

The PAC 12 has a PAC problem. That doesn’t bode well for longevity.

The locals increasingly don’t care, the time zones limiting, and there’s not consensus the future of high major FB and MBB is for them. Perhaps the last aspect is improving. There’s also some political instability from the penchant for things like this new CA bill to arise.

The two things they had going for them, conference pride and geography are on shaky ground.
Pay to play and NIL could cause fissures, and paying players removes the geography moat. Now it’s just a limiting timezone. A BIG or SEC school offering twice the pay is going to further suppress the P12s performance

I do think a front loaded deal could work to delay the death, but long term there’s really only one solution- cut the PAC fat, and top 6 to 9 schools go to BIG.

Again, your demographics comment holds no water. College football has seen a decrease in butts in seats in every year for almost a decade now. This includes the mighty SEC. This isn't a PAC problem, this is a College football/basketball problem. Hence all the Breakaway talk.

If you chop off the G5 and require P5 schools to only play P5 schools you can lesson this... you can lesson it even more by actually giving all of the remaining schools and conferences equal chances at the CFP... this is what an NFL or professional model looks like...

A lot of people here want to yell about the sanctity of college athletics but that ship sailed years ago, this doesn't make me happy, in fact I am appalled at what these sports have become, but we all need to live in the here and now...

If you believe as JR does in a P2, I think it's 2x32 and in that case only 2 PAC schools might not make it, I believe in a 4x20... all current P5 schools survive and a few get a call up. I guess in the end it's all about what model you believe in. What I would offer to you though is that if the final solution is anymore than two conferences it's not the PAC that needs to worry, it's the NB12 and the ACC.

The only college football will survive for a while is with regionalism. You can't have regionalism with only two conferences. If the B1G and SEC headline two half of the country will be alienated. It's too big a jump from 5 to two. And 80 schools is just too many........you really start to scrape the bottom after about 60 or so.

Just an observation:
The SEC center is in Alabama; 5 of their six additions have been to the west
The ACC center is in North Carolina; 5 of their additions have been to the north
The PAC's additions have all been to the east
And three of the B1G's four additions have been to the east.

Before you can get to 2X anything, it is necessary to get to 4X something. And at this point in time 16 is plenty big for any conference or group of fans to understand and even then it will be necessary to shift some teams around for balance. The NFL had to do it as well as MLB.

Another observation:
SEC losses to other conferences=0
PAC losses to other conferences=0
B1G losses to other conferences=0
ACC losses to other conferences=1 (Maryland to the B1G)
Big 12 losses to other conferences=6 (Nebraska, Missouri, Colorado, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma), 7 if you counted Arkansas from the old SWC.

I would say that we are pretty close to reaching P4 status pretty soon.

Paging Dr. XLance to surgery!! Paging Dr. XLance to surgery!!! The patient (the ACC) is about to flatline!!!!!
05-16-2022 09:47 PM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #202
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others:
Thanks for your concern Dawg. I'll give you fair warning if we are ever going to croak.
05-17-2022 04:14 AM
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AzonTheKid Offline
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Post: #203
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others:
(05-08-2022 07:42 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(04-30-2022 02:50 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(04-30-2022 02:15 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  
(04-28-2022 11:35 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  Jamie Pollard, Iowa State AD, thinks that there may be a breakaway of 30 programs in the near future.

https://www.iheart.com/podcast/487-the-m...-96196394/

Start at 24:20

I would not say it's definite just from his statements but he sure sounded extremely frustrated, like he knows something is coming and is trying to figure out how to work around it.

I'll have to listen on Wednesday. From what you say though, sounds like he wants in the P2, and I don't doubt that he does want in. Can't blame him for that, but what does Iowa State bring to the table: basketball?? baseball?? hockey?? lacrosse???

(04-29-2022 08:25 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(04-28-2022 11:35 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  Jamie Pollard, Iowa State AD, thinks that there may be a breakaway of 30 programs in the near future.

https://www.iheart.com/podcast/487-the-m...-96196394/

Start at 24:20

I would not say it's definite just from his statements but he sure is sounded extremely frustrated, like he knows something is coming and is trying to figure out how to work around it.

Is this the same AD that 12 years ago complained about players being able to transfer?

He’s a relic AD from last century that owes millions of his personal wealth to OU and UT. A small budget AD that’s done little to improve his position or grow his revenue

Well, I think he knows that he is going to have to change that if he wants back in the club, IMO.

You would think so.

I listened- he sounds ready to fold.
If you’re an AD of a p6 with $100 million budget and you can’t figure out how to cover $105 million from your most important input cost increasing, you’re a talentless businessman just riding the TV revenues from the top of CFB

You have your numbers wrong. There is currently a P5 not a P6, and it will soon become a P4. This will happen when Oklahoma and Texas leave the Big 12 and the Big 12 product is diluted. Then the Big 12 will no longer be considered a P conference. To further reinforce that view, the Big 12 will be the only conference currently in the P5 to exist without a conference network (and with no plans to start one).
At best the Big 12 will be thought of a the new "tweener" conference after poaching most of the value from the AAC and having that conference slide into mediocracy.

You do realize that the P5 designation is due to being an autonomous conference and has nothing to do with how it is perceived right? I believe that it has also been confirmed that the Big 12 isn't going to lose the designation either.

If the MAC got OSU and Michigan it doesn't magically become a P5 conference.
05-17-2022 11:46 AM
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Big 12 fan too Offline
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Post: #204
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others:
(05-16-2022 11:27 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(05-16-2022 09:05 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(05-16-2022 08:43 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(05-16-2022 08:07 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(05-16-2022 05:20 AM)XLance Wrote:  The only college football will survive for a while is with regionalism. You can't have regionalism with only two conferences. If the B1G and SEC headline two half of the country will be alienated. It's too big a jump from 5 to two. And 80 schools is just too many........you really start to scrape the bottom after about 60 or so.

Just an observation:
The SEC center is in Alabama; 5 of their six additions have been to the west
The ACC center is in North Carolina; 5 of their additions have been to the north
The PAC's additions have all been to the east
And three of the B1G's four additions have been to the east.

Before you can get to 2X anything, it is necessary to get to 4X something. And at this point in time 16 is plenty big for any conference or group of fans to understand and even then it will be necessary to shift some teams around for balance. The NFL had to do it as well as MLB.

Another observation:
SEC losses to other conferences=0
PAC losses to other conferences=0
B1G losses to other conferences=0
ACC losses to other conferences=1 (Maryland to the B1G)
Big 12 losses to other conferences=6 (Nebraska, Missouri, Colorado, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma), 7 if you counted Arkansas from the old SWC.

I would say that we are pretty close to reaching P4 status pretty soon.

All to P2 except CU.

I think you’re on to something…Consolidation to P2

It's a long process.
But one thing is certain....the Big 12 has already been demoted.

Agree- it’s already gone through the consolidation process, which is why it’s more stable than the ACC.

What’s a bad sign for a conference? To be a peer in revenue of a conference that’s already lost its brands of value.

03-lol We'll see what happens with the next contract when the Big 12 doesn't have Texas and Oklahoma to bloat their numbers.

Decent chance it’s a P3 setup before that occurs.

Given the ACC is locked in at old rates, and risk, seems like it shouldn’t be a large delta. Certainly not big enough to have schools wanting to get in on the instability of the ACC
05-17-2022 12:57 PM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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Post: #205
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others:
(05-17-2022 11:46 AM)AzonTheKid Wrote:  You do realize that the P5 designation is due to being an autonomous conference and has nothing to do with how it is perceived right? I believe that it has also been confirmed that the Big 12 isn't going to lose the designation either.

If the MAC got OSU and Michigan it doesn't magically become a P5 conference.

Um, no. Why do you think those 5 conferences were given autonomy in the first place?
05-17-2022 07:48 PM
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