(05-16-2022 01:46 PM)everyone Wrote:  This is the Sunbelt in 5-7 years after Memphis and SMU go to the B12. If Aresco is smart he is eyeing the Associate Commissioner role with the SB.

Marshall
JMU
ODU
APP
Liberty

ECU
Coastal
GA Southern
GA State
USF

WKU
MT
Troy
South
USM

AR State
ULM
La Tech
Louisiana
TX State

A 20 team Sun Belt. ESPN would most certainly agree to that, and would gladly allow the Sun Belt to poach ECU and USF from the AAC. The Big 12 has no interest in USF, so of course this would be possible (sarcasm).

(05-17-2022 01:09 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-16-2022 01:46 PM)everyone Wrote:  This is the Sunbelt in 5-7 years after Memphis and SMU go to the B12. If Aresco is smart he is eyeing the Associate Commissioner role with the SB.

Marshall
JMU
ODU
APP
Liberty

ECU
Coastal
GA Southern
GA State
USF

WKU
MT
Troy
South
USM

AR State
ULM
La Tech
Louisiana
TX State

A 20 team Sun Belt. ESPN would most certainly agree to that, and would gladly allow the Sun Belt to poach ECU and USF from the AAC. The Big 12 has no interest in USF, so of course this would be possible (sarcasm).

Another stupid post on this board, the SBC is not going to 20 and USF isn’t going to SBC.

Short answer to the OP’s topic question: No.

(05-17-2022 08:38 PM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  Short answer to the OP’s topic question: No.

You’re probably right, but they will be super competitive and have an advantage.

(05-18-2022 08:15 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(05-17-2022 08:38 PM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  Short answer to the OP’s topic question: No.

You’re probably right, but they will be super competitive and have an advantage.

The MWAC fans desperately hope to remain relevant, but if the AAC lets loose of the NY6 bowl advantage the MWAC will be supplanted by the Sunbelt. All of that will only be temporary as the AAC will reassert dominance after a short consolidation period.

(05-18-2022 08:15 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(05-17-2022 08:38 PM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  Short answer to the OP’s topic question: No.

You’re probably right, but they will be super competitive and have an advantage.

"Super-competitive?" "Advantage?"

The best AAC football teams should be "competitive" with the best MWC and SBC teams, but "super-competitive" suggests that they'll have the advantage, and we have no data suggesting that.

Not sure they'll have any "advantage," either. If so, what is that advantage?

Being braggadocious can bring blowback and provide locker room material.

Modesty seems to be a good policy, especially when it's warranted.

After all, it's certainly within the realm of possibility that the AAC won't send a single team to a NY6 bowl between 2023 and 2028.

.

(05-18-2022 08:35 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 08:15 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(05-17-2022 08:38 PM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  Short answer to the OP’s topic question: No.

You’re probably right, but they will be super competitive and have an advantage.

"Super-competitive?" "Advantage?"

The best AAC football teams should be "competitive" with the best MWC and SBC teams, but "super-competitive" suggests that they'll have the advantage, and we have no data suggesting that.

Not sure they'll have any "advantage," either. If so, what is that advantage?

Being braggadocious can bring blowback and provide locker room material.

Modesty seems to be a good policy, especially when it's warranted.

After all, it's certainly within the realm of possibility that the AAC won't send a single team to a NY6 bowl between 2023 and 2028.

.

With UC, UCF, and UH no longer in the league, it is possible that SMU, Memphis, and ECU will have 10 or more wins, and better viewership than about anybody else.

I know we lost three good schools, but we're ignoring the depth in the middle. Consider the following:

1. Memphis has consistently been strong.
2. SMU is on an upswing now and this will probably continue.
3. ECU has immense loyalty and with better play will start selling out with 45k-50k in the stands. In the case of an eventual breakoff...I feel confident ECU will get a lifeboat over a Wake Forest.
4. USF has been good for at least half our time in the AAC (2015 to the first half of 2019). I think we will be back. Landing a P5 conference winning QB will be a huge help to be sure...and now McClain has two years to learn to be extraordinarily dangerous. Besides, when we are good...we can get 40k in the stands. We're not less than anyone else.

(05-18-2022 10:17 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 08:35 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 08:15 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(05-17-2022 08:38 PM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  Short answer to the OP’s topic question: No.

You’re probably right, but they will be super competitive and have an advantage.

"Super-competitive?" "Advantage?"

The best AAC football teams should be "competitive" with the best MWC and SBC teams, but "super-competitive" suggests that they'll have the advantage, and we have no data suggesting that.

Not sure they'll have any "advantage," either. If so, what is that advantage?

Being braggadocious can bring blowback and provide locker room material.

Modesty seems to be a good policy, especially when it's warranted.

After all, it's certainly within the realm of possibility that the AAC won't send a single team to a NY6 bowl between 2023 and 2028.

.

With UC, UCF, and UH no longer in the league, it is possible that SMU, Memphis, and ECU will have 10 or more wins, and better viewership than about anybody else.

That is certainly a possibility, and the list of potential 10+ win AAC teams is probably longer than that.

(03-31-2022 10:57 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Could UAB and UTSA help fill the gap left by the 3 schools leaving to B12. AAC hopes so.

No, never.

(05-19-2022 03:05 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 10:17 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 08:35 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 08:15 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(05-17-2022 08:38 PM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  Short answer to the OP’s topic question: No.

You’re probably right, but they will be super competitive and have an advantage.

"Super-competitive?" "Advantage?"

The best AAC football teams should be "competitive" with the best MWC and SBC teams, but "super-competitive" suggests that they'll have the advantage, and we have no data suggesting that.

Not sure they'll have any "advantage," either. If so, what is that advantage?

Being braggadocious can bring blowback and provide locker room material.

Modesty seems to be a good policy, especially when it's warranted.

After all, it's certainly within the realm of possibility that the AAC won't send a single team to a NY6 bowl between 2023 and 2028.

.

With UC, UCF, and UH no longer in the league, it is possible that SMU, Memphis, and ECU will have 10 or more wins, and better viewership than about anybody else.

That is certainly a possibility, and the list of potential 10+ win AAC teams is probably longer than that.

The AAC will not “maintain dominance over the NY6/Access spot” like it has the last 8 years.

I think it will be AAC, SBC or MW champ that gets about the same amount the next 10 years with MAC and CUSA squeaking in here and there, maybe. But mostly AAC, MW and SBC about equally.

(05-20-2022 03:29 PM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  

(05-19-2022 03:05 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 10:17 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 08:35 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  [quote='SMUstang' pid='18240063' dateline='1652879701']

You’re probably right, but they will be super competitive and have an advantage.

The AAC will not “maintain dominance over the NY6/Access spot” like it has the last 8 years.

I think it will be AAC, SBC or MW champ that gets about the same amount the next 10 years with MAC and CUSA squeaking in here and there, maybe. But mostly AAC, MW and SBC about equally.

I agree short term, I think MWC and AAC will take it the next 5 years with others maybe getting lucky along the ways. 5+ years and I think AAC retakes the mantle and runs with it. The $$ difference and coverage difference will take hold and AAC will solidly regain the #6 spot.

clt says absolutely. Will likely pass the acc at some point

(04-14-2022 12:52 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(04-14-2022 12:44 PM)b2b Wrote:  

(04-14-2022 12:26 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(04-14-2022 11:10 AM)Yosef181 Wrote:  

(04-14-2022 01:53 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  I looked at the map.

And that is the craziest theory I've ever heard.

There is a reason Marshall, ODU, USM, et al. didn't make the cut line.

The reason: Marshall and USM aren't in major metropolitan areas. Let's not sugarcoat anything. That's the only requirement you need to join the AAC. It has nothing to do with performance. Old Dominion was working with Marshall for years to be in a more regional conference. The AAC is not a regional conference.

I could start a new college football team in any major metropolitan area right now, and be in the AAC within 10 years of the first snap, without any real on-field success. I know I could do this, because it's been done: UNC Charlotte.

By consensus within the industry, the AAC took the best properties (by far). This includes academics, where the AAC strives to stay in that top tier.
It's foolishness to say the Sunbelt somehow got schools that are going to surpass the AAC schools.

"the industry" = one website apparently. Is that seriously trying to say that UNT is a better brand name than Marshall? The Marshall who literally has a movie about them and was dominant in FCS and then the MAC?

It was a quantitative study of those teams which polled dozens of current ADs and collegiate executives.

What more do you want?

"Dozens of sitting Athletic Directors or executive-level administrators who currently are or could soon be a Conference USA AD were invited to share feedback on each AD job in the league. The data was used to provide detailed insights about the potential for success at each school."

https://athleticdirectoru.com/articles/a...rence-usa/

If my school's AD participated in this survey they should be immediately fired for cause as they should have more important duties to do.

(05-20-2022 05:12 PM)ghostofclt! Wrote:  clt says absolutely. Will likely pass the acc at some point

Not to mention the ccc

(05-18-2022 01:55 PM)bullsbucsfan426 Wrote:  I know we lost three good schools, but we're ignoring the depth in the middle. Consider the following:

1. Memphis has consistently been strong.
2. SMU is on an upswing now and this will probably continue.
3. ECU has immense loyalty and with better play will start selling out with 45k-50k in the stands. In the case of an eventual breakoff...I feel confident ECU will get a lifeboat over a Wake Forest.
4. USF has been good for at least half our time in the AAC (2015 to the first half of 2019). I think we will be back. Landing a P5 conference winning QB will be a huge help to be sure...and now McClain has two years to learn to be extraordinarily dangerous. Besides, when we are good...we can get 40k in the stands. We're not less than anyone else.

I wouldn’t count Navy out in winning a few games more too… Navy in the AAC lineup brightness the league up as well.

I also believe North Texas, UTSA, UAB to make some noise in their first year in the AAC. Heck what if Tulane, Rice and Charlotte become the better performers.

All I’m saying the AAC still has plenty potential and shouldn’t surprise anyone landing the NY6 bowl spot as usual.

I ran some Massey Ratings (not Massey Composite) numbers. There will be 61 G5 conference teams after UC/UH/UCF and BYU join Big12. I took the last 5 seasons’ rankings for all 61 then averaged them out for each team.

Here is the top 25 5-year average G5 rankings…

Place/avg rank/team

1). 39.4 Boise State
2). 53.2 Memphis
3). 55.0 Appalachian State
4). 61.4 Fresno State
5). 63.2 Air Force
6). 63.8 San Diego State
7). 69.0 Navy
8). 69.8 Utah State
9). 70.8 SMU
10). 78.8 Louisiana
11). 79.6 James Madison
12). 80.2 Tulsa
13). 80.8 Wyoming
14). 82.2 Tulane
15). 83.8 Florida Atlantic
16). 85.2 Nevada
17). 87.0 Marshall
18). 91.0 Toledo
19). 92.0 Western Michigan
20). 94.0 UAB
21). 94.6 Buffalo
22). 96.6 Miami (OH)
23). 97.0 Ohio
24). 97.4 Troy
25). 98.2 Hawaii
25). 98.2 USF

Only other G5 with 5yr avg rank under 100: 98.8 Temple

(05-24-2022 05:30 PM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  I ran some Massey Ratings (not Massey Composite) numbers. There will be 61 G5 conference teams after UC/UH/UCF and BYU join Big12. I took the last 5 seasons’ rankings for all 61 then averaged them out for each team.

Here is the top 25 5-year average G5 rankings…

Place/avg rank/team

1). 39.4 Boise State
2). 53.2 Memphis
3). 55.0 Appalachian State
4). 61.4 Fresno State
5). 63.2 Air Force
6). 63.8 San Diego State
7). 69.0 Navy
8). 69.8 Utah State
9). 70.8 SMU
10). 78.8 Louisiana
11). 79.6 James Madison
12). 80.2 Tulsa
13). 80.8 Wyoming
14). 82.2 Tulane
15). 83.8 Florida Atlantic
16). 85.2 Nevada
17). 87.0 Marshall
18). 91.0 Toledo
19). 92.0 Western Michigan
20). 94.0 UAB
21). 94.6 Buffalo
22). 96.6 Miami (OH)
23). 97.0 Ohio
24). 97.4 Troy
25). 98.2 Hawaii
25). 98.2 USF

Only other G5 with 5yr avg rank under 100: 98.8 Temple

Why did you use ratings vs composite?

(05-18-2022 08:35 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 08:15 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(05-17-2022 08:38 PM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  Short answer to the OP’s topic question: No.

You’re probably right, but they will be super competitive and have an advantage.

"Super-competitive?" "Advantage?"

The best AAC football teams should be "competitive" with the best MWC and SBC teams, but "super-competitive" suggests that they'll have the advantage, and we have no data suggesting that.

Not sure they'll have any "advantage," either. If so, what is that advantage?

Being braggadocious can bring blowback and provide locker room material.

Modesty seems to be a good policy, especially when it's warranted.

After all, it's certainly within the realm of possibility that the AAC won't send a single team to a NY6 bowl between 2023 and 2028.

.

(05-24-2022 05:33 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  

(05-24-2022 05:30 PM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  I ran some Massey Ratings (not Massey Composite) numbers. There will be 61 G5 conference teams after UC/UH/UCF and BYU join Big12. I took the last 5 seasons’ rankings for all 61 then averaged them out for each team.

Here is the top 25 5-year average G5 rankings…

Place/avg rank/team

1). 39.4 Boise State
2). 53.2 Memphis
3). 55.0 Appalachian State
4). 61.4 Fresno State
5). 63.2 Air Force
6). 63.8 San Diego State
7). 69.0 Navy
8). 69.8 Utah State
9). 70.8 SMU
10). 78.8 Louisiana
11). 79.6 James Madison
12). 80.2 Tulsa
13). 80.8 Wyoming
14). 82.2 Tulane
15). 83.8 Florida Atlantic
16). 85.2 Nevada
17). 87.0 Marshall
18). 91.0 Toledo
19). 92.0 Western Michigan
20). 94.0 UAB
21). 94.6 Buffalo
22). 96.6 Miami (OH)
23). 97.0 Ohio
24). 97.4 Troy
25). 98.2 Hawaii
25). 98.2 USF

Only other G5 with 5yr avg rank under 100: 98.8 Temple

Why did you use ratings vs composite?

I’ve found Massey Ratings easier to navigate to and through previous years than Composite. And I’ve personally found Ratings to be very good and much better than Sagarin or sp+. Massey Ratings is my fave and, I think, very accurate (lack of a better word) compared to others. Less head scratchers in Massey Ratings just like Composite, I think.

Edit: Also Composite doesn’t combine FBS with FCS, so to get JMad, SHSU, etc…