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At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
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CoastalJuan Offline
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Post: #281
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(05-06-2022 09:38 AM)ballantyneapp Wrote:  
(05-06-2022 08:32 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(05-06-2022 07:55 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  Back to the subject posted by the OP. Boise St, San Diego St, Coastal Carolina, and Appalachian St. are the only G5 teams I see that have the potential to unseat the AAC at the NY6 table. SOS will be important and will give the AAC the edge.

I think any SBC team that goes undefeated would beat out a 2-loss AAC team, or maybe even an unfamiliar 1-loss team. For instance, if ULaLa went undefeated with a decent P5 win, and Tulane won our conference with 1 loss and no statement win, I could see the SBC getting the nod in that scenario.

Like we discussed above, any G5 champ, even ours, needs to use a "turn signal". i.e. they can't come out of nowhere. A team like Houston who was in the CCG last year would be an example of a team that would be favorably treated this year as compared to a Tulane.

I think the AAC will get some "carryover" affect from Cincy/Houston/UCF where they get more respect than they deserve a la mid 2000s B1G schools, but eventually people will become acclimated to the new AAC

all things being equal- i think in 3 years+ a 1 loss SBC-E team edges out a 1 loss AAC team more than half the time. Of course P5 wins and who you lost to would factor in that.

History showed the opposite. We definitely didn't get the benefit of the doubt in our rankings or our media deal last time we had a shuffle. It took a few years to be taken seriously again.
05-06-2022 10:08 AM
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TroyTBoy Offline
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Post: #282
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
What doesn't get talked about enough is the synergy between the AAC6 and the incumbent American Athletic schools.

Every new addition is joining a fellow AAC institution with 8 years of history in their region.

- Charlotte joins ECU, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against ECU's recruits.

- UAB joins Memphis, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against Memphis's recruits.

- FAU joins USF, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against USF's recruits.

- North Texas/UTSA/Rice joins SMU, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against SMU's recruits.

The AAC's 14-team expansion was very strategic and the incoming schools will build on a good reputation that has already 'planted seeds in the recruiting fields' in their region.

The coup de grace is the AAC6 will get the benefit of an ESPN contract that the originals took 8 years to secure. Despite the loss of the Big12(3), the equity they put into the AAC will be bestowed upon the new programs.

This expansion works because Mike Aresco had the acumen to sign a long-term deal. He took criticism on this board for that; and that deal ended up pulling a rabbit out of the proverbial hat. That 12-year billion dollar ESPN deal was prescient. The AAC6 programs are hooked up for the next decade.

IMO, if the American ever has reason to expand again, they'll use the same formula. Any addition will most likely be a regional foe for an established team. The only exception would be Army and Air Force. However, they'd still step into a fierce conference rivalry.
(This post was last modified: 05-06-2022 11:17 PM by TroyTBoy.)
05-06-2022 11:16 PM
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TroyTBoy Offline
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Post: #283
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
Here's a great new interview with Charlotte Athletic Director Mike Hill.

I highly recommend listening.

05-06-2022 11:22 PM
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Post: #284
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(05-06-2022 11:16 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  What doesn't get talked about enough is the synergy between the AAC6 and the incumbent American Athletic schools.

Every new addition is joining a fellow AAC institution with 8 years of history in their region.

- Charlotte joins ECU, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against ECU's recruits.

- UAB joins Memphis, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against Memphis's recruits.

- FAU joins USF, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against USF's recruits.

- North Texas/UTSA/Rice joins SMU, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against SMU's recruits.

The AAC's 14-team expansion was very strategic and the incoming schools will build on a good reputation that has already 'planted seeds in the recruiting fields' in their region.

The coup de grace is the AAC6 will get the benefit of an ESPN contract that the originals took 8 years to secure. Despite the loss of the Big12(3), the equity they put into the AAC will be bestowed upon the new programs.

This expansion works because Mike Aresco had the acumen to sign a long-term deal. He took criticism on this board for that; and that deal ended up pulling a rabbit out of the proverbial hat. That 12-year billion dollar ESPN deal was prescient. The AAC6 programs are hooked up for the next decade.

IMO, if the American ever has reason to expand again, they'll use the same formula. Any addition will most likely be a regional foe for an established team. The only exception would be Army and Air Force. However, they'd still step into a fierce conference rivalry.

Definitely anyone's guess at how the AAC will completely play out financially and competitively.

The new SBC I think creates a lot of intrigue to see how USM, Marshall, JMU, ODU do against their new regional opponents. Will they contend for the division right out of the bat and if so which schools?

AAC however is a situation where Memphis, SMU, USF, Temple are so far ahead with a 15 year+ build up they are going to run all over the new competition. I see myself tuning in for not the new schools but the old ones to see if they can keep their Top 25 rankings.
05-07-2022 12:15 AM
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TroyTBoy Offline
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Post: #285
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
Here's a good interview with FAU AD Brian White about the jump to the American.

https://podcasts.apple.com/is/podcast/ep...0539299764
05-07-2022 04:42 AM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #286
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(05-06-2022 09:38 AM)ballantyneapp Wrote:  
(05-06-2022 08:32 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(05-06-2022 07:55 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  Back to the subject posted by the OP. Boise St, San Diego St, Coastal Carolina, and Appalachian St. are the only G5 teams I see that have the potential to unseat the AAC at the NY6 table. SOS will be important and will give the AAC the edge.

I think any SBC team that goes undefeated would beat out a 2-loss AAC team, or maybe even an unfamiliar 1-loss team. For instance, if ULaLa went undefeated with a decent P5 win, and Tulane won our conference with 1 loss and no statement win, I could see the SBC getting the nod in that scenario.

Like we discussed above, any G5 champ, even ours, needs to use a "turn signal". i.e. they can't come out of nowhere. A team like Houston who was in the CCG last year would be an example of a team that would be favorably treated this year as compared to a Tulane.

I think the AAC will get some "carryover" affect from Cincy/Houston/UCF where they get more respect than they deserve a la mid 2000s B1G schools, but eventually people will become acclimated to the new AAC

all things being equal- i think in 3 years+ a 1 loss SBC-E team edges out a 1 loss AAC team more than half the time. Of course P5 wins and who you lost to would factor in that.

A fair and reasonable assessment.
05-07-2022 02:19 PM
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NeighSayer Offline
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Post: #287
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(05-06-2022 11:16 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  What doesn't get talked about enough is the synergy between the AAC6 and the incumbent American Athletic schools.

Every new addition is joining a fellow AAC institution with 8 years of history in their region.

- Charlotte joins ECU, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against ECU's recruits.

- UAB joins Memphis, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against Memphis's recruits.

- FAU joins USF, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against USF's recruits.

- North Texas/UTSA/Rice joins SMU, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against SMU's recruits.

The AAC's 14-team expansion was very strategic and the incoming schools will build on a good reputation that has already 'planted seeds in the recruiting fields' in their region.

The coup de grace is the AAC6 will get the benefit of an ESPN contract that the originals took 8 years to secure. Despite the loss of the Big12(3), the equity they put into the AAC will be bestowed upon the new programs.

This expansion works because Mike Aresco had the acumen to sign a long-term deal. He took criticism on this board for that; and that deal ended up pulling a rabbit out of the proverbial hat. That 12-year billion dollar ESPN deal was prescient. The AAC6 programs are hooked up for the next decade.

IMO, if the American ever has reason to expand again, they'll use the same formula. Any addition will most likely be a regional foe for an established team. The only exception would be Army and Air Force. However, they'd still step into a fierce conference rivalry.

Meh…I don’t see ESPN giving a lot of value to the new AAC when their deal is up for renewal. They lost their top teams who made them relevant, and if the Big 12 decides to expand again, they’ll lose another. Pressure is on the traditional poor-performers and the noobs to step it up…and their failure to do so will be reflected in their next TV contract. The AAC’s position is precarious, not “prescient” as you suggest.
05-09-2022 05:55 AM
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Milwaukee Online
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Post: #288
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(05-09-2022 05:55 AM)NeighSayer Wrote:  
(05-06-2022 11:16 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  What doesn't get talked about enough is the synergy between the AAC6 and the incumbent American Athletic schools.

Every new addition is joining a fellow AAC institution with 8 years of history in their region.

- Charlotte joins ECU, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against ECU's recruits.

- UAB joins Memphis, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against Memphis's recruits.

- FAU joins USF, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against USF's recruits.

- North Texas/UTSA/Rice joins SMU, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against SMU's recruits.

The AAC's 14-team expansion was very strategic and the incoming schools will build on a good reputation that has already 'planted seeds in the recruiting fields' in their region.

The coup de grace is the AAC6 will get the benefit of an ESPN contract that the originals took 8 years to secure. Despite the loss of the Big12(3), the equity they put into the AAC will be bestowed upon the new programs.

This expansion works because Mike Aresco had the acumen to sign a long-term deal. He took criticism on this board for that; and that deal ended up pulling a rabbit out of the proverbial hat. That 12-year billion dollar ESPN deal was prescient. The AAC6 programs are hooked up for the next decade.

IMO, if the American ever has reason to expand again, they'll use the same formula. Any addition will most likely be a regional foe for an established team. The only exception would be Army and Air Force. However, they'd still step into a fierce conference rivalry.

Meh…I don’t see ESPN giving a lot of value to the new AAC when their deal is up for renewal. They lost their top teams who made them relevant, and if the Big 12 decides to expand again, they’ll lose another. Pressure is on the traditional poor-performers and the noobs to step it up…and their failure to do so will be reflected in their next TV contract. The AAC’s position is precarious, not “prescient” as you suggest.

Disagree, Neighsayer, because it's entirely possible that their positive success in doing so will be reflected in their next TV contract.
05-09-2022 06:08 AM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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Post: #289
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(05-09-2022 05:55 AM)NeighSayer Wrote:  
(05-06-2022 11:16 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  What doesn't get talked about enough is the synergy between the AAC6 and the incumbent American Athletic schools.

Every new addition is joining a fellow AAC institution with 8 years of history in their region.

- Charlotte joins ECU, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against ECU's recruits.

- UAB joins Memphis, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against Memphis's recruits.

- FAU joins USF, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against USF's recruits.

- North Texas/UTSA/Rice joins SMU, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against SMU's recruits.

The AAC's 14-team expansion was very strategic and the incoming schools will build on a good reputation that has already 'planted seeds in the recruiting fields' in their region.

The coup de grace is the AAC6 will get the benefit of an ESPN contract that the originals took 8 years to secure. Despite the loss of the Big12(3), the equity they put into the AAC will be bestowed upon the new programs.

This expansion works because Mike Aresco had the acumen to sign a long-term deal. He took criticism on this board for that; and that deal ended up pulling a rabbit out of the proverbial hat. That 12-year billion dollar ESPN deal was prescient. The AAC6 programs are hooked up for the next decade.

IMO, if the American ever has reason to expand again, they'll use the same formula. Any addition will most likely be a regional foe for an established team. The only exception would be Army and Air Force. However, they'd still step into a fierce conference rivalry.

Meh…I don’t see ESPN giving a lot of value to the new AAC when their deal is up for renewal. They lost their top teams who made them relevant, and if the Big 12 decides to expand again, they’ll lose another. Pressure is on the traditional poor-performers and the noobs to step it up…and their failure to do so will be reflected in their next TV contract. The AAC’s position is precarious, not “prescient” as you suggest.

I think your post misses the point the OP was trying to make. Everyone from the other G5s, and some AAC fans, gave Aresco crap for signing such a long deal. Now, with some recent instability, being up for renewal right now in another period of unknown quality would be pretty terrible timing.

Case in point, we renewed with ESPN right after the last round of realignment. Because of the "They lost their top teams who made them relevant" narrative you regurgitated above, we were all making $2m per year.

Instead, we have 10 years to prove ourselves yet again, which is decidedly convenient.

Now, it's anyone's guess what the conference will look like and how it will have performed 10 years from now. We could do well and make more, or do worse and make less. Anyone's guess. I would, however, argue that in a scenario where we had to start renegotiating right now, we (AAC8) would 100% be taking a cut.
05-09-2022 07:20 AM
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Owls9878 Offline
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Post: #290
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(05-09-2022 07:20 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(05-09-2022 05:55 AM)NeighSayer Wrote:  
(05-06-2022 11:16 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  What doesn't get talked about enough is the synergy between the AAC6 and the incumbent American Athletic schools.

Every new addition is joining a fellow AAC institution with 8 years of history in their region.

- Charlotte joins ECU, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against ECU's recruits.

- UAB joins Memphis, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against Memphis's recruits.

- FAU joins USF, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against USF's recruits.

- North Texas/UTSA/Rice joins SMU, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against SMU's recruits.

The AAC's 14-team expansion was very strategic and the incoming schools will build on a good reputation that has already 'planted seeds in the recruiting fields' in their region.

The coup de grace is the AAC6 will get the benefit of an ESPN contract that the originals took 8 years to secure. Despite the loss of the Big12(3), the equity they put into the AAC will be bestowed upon the new programs.

This expansion works because Mike Aresco had the acumen to sign a long-term deal. He took criticism on this board for that; and that deal ended up pulling a rabbit out of the proverbial hat. That 12-year billion dollar ESPN deal was prescient. The AAC6 programs are hooked up for the next decade.

IMO, if the American ever has reason to expand again, they'll use the same formula. Any addition will most likely be a regional foe for an established team. The only exception would be Army and Air Force. However, they'd still step into a fierce conference rivalry.

Meh…I don’t see ESPN giving a lot of value to the new AAC when their deal is up for renewal. They lost their top teams who made them relevant, and if the Big 12 decides to expand again, they’ll lose another. Pressure is on the traditional poor-performers and the noobs to step it up…and their failure to do so will be reflected in their next TV contract. The AAC’s position is precarious, not “prescient” as you suggest.

I think your post misses the point the OP was trying to make. Everyone from the other G5s, and some AAC fans, gave Aresco crap for signing such a long deal. Now, with some recent instability, being up for renewal right now in another period of unknown quality would be pretty terrible timing.

Case in point, we renewed with ESPN right after the last round of realignment. Because of the "They lost their top teams who made them relevant" narrative you regurgitated above, we were all making $2m per year.

Instead, we have 10 years to prove ourselves yet again, which is decidedly convenient.

Now, it's anyone's guess what the conference will look like and how it will have performed 10 years from now. We could do well and make more, or do worse and make less. Anyone's guess. I would, however, argue that in a scenario where we had to start renegotiating right now, we (AAC8) would 100% be taking a cut.
The AAC has proven their members can improve and that has evolved into the largest G5 media rights deal and a few members improving to such an extent they were offered P5 membership. This is exactly what the AAC will try to replicate in this second iteration of the conference. The security of a long term contract right now is invaluable from a dollars and runway stand point.
05-09-2022 07:38 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #291
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(05-06-2022 11:16 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  What doesn't get talked about enough is the synergy between the AAC6 and the incumbent American Athletic schools.

Every new addition is joining a fellow AAC institution with 8 years of history in their region.

- Charlotte joins ECU, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against ECU's recruits.

- UAB joins Memphis, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against Memphis's recruits.

- FAU joins USF, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against USF's recruits.

- North Texas/UTSA/Rice joins SMU, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against SMU's recruits.

The AAC's 14-team expansion was very strategic and the incoming schools will build on a good reputation that has already 'planted seeds in the recruiting fields' in their region.

The coup de grace is the AAC6 will get the benefit of an ESPN contract that the originals took 8 years to secure. Despite the loss of the Big12(3), the equity they put into the AAC will be bestowed upon the new programs.

This expansion works because Mike Aresco had the acumen to sign a long-term deal. He took criticism on this board for that; and that deal ended up pulling a rabbit out of the proverbial hat. That 12-year billion dollar ESPN deal was prescient. The AAC6 programs are hooked up for the next decade.

IMO, if the American ever has reason to expand again, they'll use the same formula. Any addition will most likely be a regional foe for an established team. The only exception would be Army and Air Force. However, they'd still step into a fierce conference rivalry.

Three things come to mind:

First, regarding the pairings of the old and new AAC members you mention, this, like backfill adds always do, feels like a bad thing for the existing members. I mean, another way of putting the Charlotte and ECU situation is that Charlotte now can more effectively compete against ECU for recruits - good for UNCC, bad for ECU. And on down the line.

Second, about Aresco and the wiseness of a long-term deal, this would sound good (sort of) except that in effect the 2020 was renegotiated. Reportedly, the old AAC schools are keeping their $7m a year because the noobs are being brought in at $3.5m a school. That's a per-school pay cut of from $7m a year on average to $5.5m a year on average. That only happens if a deal is renegotiated, which this one apparently was.

So on the floor, the length of the deal proved to be of no protection, as the deal included clauses that allowed ESPN to revise it due to composition changes, and yet on the ceiling, the AAC is still stuck with a measly $7m a year (nothing "P6" about that) for 12 long years, while everyone else will be going up during that time, save for the hapless ACC.

Finally, as to whether the new schools will beef up and make the AAC a stronger conference, only time will tell. But IMO it is telling that four of the new schools - UNT, FAU, UTSA and Charlotte - were all brought in to CUSA back in 2012-2013 after the AAC acquired schools. This was done with general approval, that CUSA was adding schools with good potential, making the best of a bad situation after losing teams to the AAC.

But rather than CUSA becoming dominant as the "best of the rest" G5 league, CUSA went in to the toilet, falling behind the SBC among the G5 conferences, a total train wreck. I mean, the bottom line is, in 2013 CUSA was able to get schools from the SBC. This year, the SBC was able to get schools from CUSA. When has that kind of switcheroo ever happened before?

Now those same schools are being brought up to the AAC. Hopefully this time things will work out better for their new conference than it did for CUSA.
(This post was last modified: 05-09-2022 07:47 AM by quo vadis.)
05-09-2022 07:40 AM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #292
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
As I've posted previous, my take is that the future AAC will be neither better than it has been nor as "not so good" as some are predicting.

The narrative that the league lost its "three best properties" is sometimes thrown around on this board 1. to take a subtle shot at the league and 2. while conveniently ignoring the fact (or simply being unaware) that some quality universities and athletics programs remain.

The future six, collectively, are pumping money into their athletics programs. I was very impressed with the turnout for the C-USA football title game in San Antonio. UAB offers a new football stadium and legit men's hoops and football coaches. There are many positives to be had.

Often in life, the truth lies in the middle. That might be proved the case with the future AAC in terms of everybody's predictions, expectations, etc. It won't be as wonderful at TroyBoy contends, but it should be better than some of you anticipate.
(This post was last modified: 05-09-2022 08:45 AM by bill dazzle.)
05-09-2022 08:44 AM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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Post: #293
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(05-09-2022 07:40 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-06-2022 11:16 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  What doesn't get talked about enough is the synergy between the AAC6 and the incumbent American Athletic schools.

Every new addition is joining a fellow AAC institution with 8 years of history in their region.

- Charlotte joins ECU, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against ECU's recruits.

- UAB joins Memphis, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against Memphis's recruits.

- FAU joins USF, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against USF's recruits.

- North Texas/UTSA/Rice joins SMU, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against SMU's recruits.

The AAC's 14-team expansion was very strategic and the incoming schools will build on a good reputation that has already 'planted seeds in the recruiting fields' in their region.

The coup de grace is the AAC6 will get the benefit of an ESPN contract that the originals took 8 years to secure. Despite the loss of the Big12(3), the equity they put into the AAC will be bestowed upon the new programs.

This expansion works because Mike Aresco had the acumen to sign a long-term deal. He took criticism on this board for that; and that deal ended up pulling a rabbit out of the proverbial hat. That 12-year billion dollar ESPN deal was prescient. The AAC6 programs are hooked up for the next decade.

IMO, if the American ever has reason to expand again, they'll use the same formula. Any addition will most likely be a regional foe for an established team. The only exception would be Army and Air Force. However, they'd still step into a fierce conference rivalry.

Three things come to mind:

First, regarding the pairings of the old and new AAC members you mention, this, like backfill adds always do, feels like a bad thing for the existing members. I mean, another way of putting the Charlotte and ECU situation is that Charlotte now can more effectively compete against ECU for recruits - good for UNCC, bad for ECU. And on down the line.

Second, about Aresco and the wiseness of a long-term deal, this would sound good (sort of) except that in effect the 2020 was renegotiated. Reportedly, the old AAC schools are keeping their $7m a year because the noobs are being brought in at $3.5m a school. That's a per-school pay cut of from $7m a year on average to $5.5m a year on average. That only happens if a deal is renegotiated, which this one apparently was.

So on the floor, the length of the deal proved to be of no protection, as the deal included clauses that allowed ESPN to revise it due to composition changes, and yet on the ceiling, the AAC is still stuck with a measly $7m a year (nothing "P6" about that) for 12 long years, while everyone else will be going up during that time, save for the hapless ACC.

Finally, as to whether the new schools will beef up and make the AAC a stronger conference, only time will tell. But IMO it is telling that four of the new schools - UNT, FAU, UTSA and Charlotte - were all brought in to CUSA back in 2012-2013 after the AAC acquired schools. This was done with general approval, that CUSA was adding schools with good potential, making the best of a bad situation after losing teams to the AAC.

But rather than CUSA becoming dominant as the "best of the rest" G5 league, CUSA went in to the toilet, falling behind the SBC among the G5 conferences, a total train wreck. I mean, the bottom line is, in 2013 CUSA was able to get schools from the SBC. This year, the SBC was able to get schools from CUSA. When has that kind of switcheroo ever happened before?

Now those same schools are being brought up to the AAC. Hopefully this time things will work out better for their new conference than it did for CUSA.

If you take the same payout and pay the same amount of the 3 leaving to 6 teams, you don't have to renegotiate. I'm sure ESPN was consulted. My point is more that ESPN probably said "you're getting the same thing, do what you want with it". Having to renegotiate would be adding 6 teams to replace the 3, and expecting 7m per team.

In a vacuum, you have a deal that ends 10 years from now, vs. one that could be up for renewal discussions now. That's the comparison. From the standpoint of the current AAC teams, which is what matters here, Aresco kept us whole.
(This post was last modified: 05-09-2022 11:19 AM by CoastalJuan.)
05-09-2022 11:17 AM
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TroyTBoy Offline
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Post: #294
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(05-09-2022 11:17 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  If you take the same payout and pay the same amount of the 3 leaving to 6 teams, you don't have to renegotiate. I'm sure ESPN was consulted.


^^^^^^^^ This is how it was done.

Now those 6 new AAC programs will be well taken care of for the next decade.

IMO, Aresco struck gold with that 2018 12-year ESPN contract, with Cincinnati-UCF-Houston as the designated hitters.

Those departing teams were the driving force for the biggest ratings on ABC/ESPN (National broadcasts and College Gamedays), and subsequently the Billion-dollar contract. Houston with their Peach Bowl run and wins over OU (with Mayfield) and Louisville (with Jackson) that followed; and then UCF and Cincinnati with their multiple undefeated seasons - and multiple New Years Day bowls (and a CFP4 to boot). In the grand scheme of things, UCF-Cincinnati-Houston were worth multiples of their 7m$ shares in that (1B$) contract, and for the sake of comity, their pieces of the revenue pie were more than cut in half so every team was on an equal footing.

It ended up working out for them because they got their golden tickets. Nevertheless, Aresco managed to keep Temple, Tulsa, Tulane, ECU, USF, SMU, Memphis, Navy, and Wichita State at their agreed upon ESPN rates (without Cincinnati, UCF, Houston, UConn). On top of that, the new AAC programs are getting paid significantly more than they were getting previously, and they'll share in the ESPN/ABC exposure that the 2018 AAC roster negotiated with ESPN.

That's transformational for those new programs, and they will eat that cheese for the next decade (even though Houston-UCF-Cincinnati were cited in the contract as the foundational pieces of the deal).

Aresco has earned his salary and then some. He is also negotiating a stiff buyout to profit off the 'Big 12 three' even more.

Now it's time to play ball for the next decade with the positional players.

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(This post was last modified: 05-14-2022 04:25 AM by TroyTBoy.)
05-14-2022 04:14 AM
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DawgNBama Offline
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Post: #295
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(05-03-2022 07:51 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(05-03-2022 02:04 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  
(04-28-2022 12:17 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  
(04-28-2022 11:47 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-28-2022 11:43 AM)e-parade Wrote:  Honest question since I don't know the details:

Is there a requirement for number of games on each network? Or would it be potentially possible for everything to be on the preferred ABC/ESPN or for everything to be on the less preferred ESPN2/ESPNU sets? Or instead of everything, just most in one place I suppose.

The AAC press release announcing the 2019 deal said:

Football

A minimum of 40 regular-season telecasts per season on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU, including at least 20 across ABC, ESPN and ESPN2 ....

https://theamerican.org/news/2019/3/27/g...nsion.aspx

Since this is a hotly debated topic, the rest of the section specifying ESPN's football broadcasting of AAC football games is also of interest:

Football

"A minimum of 40 regular-season telecasts per season on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU, including at least 20 across ABC, ESPN and ESPN2, which represents increased annual exposure across those ESPN networks."

"A similar number of Thursday and Friday contests."

"The American Championship game will be televised each year on ABC or ESPN."

"New to ESPN’s TV rights beginning in 2020-21 are all Navy-controlled football games versus Notre Dame, plus first pick of the remaining Navy-controlled football games each year (excluding any games versus Army and Air Force). Beyond select Navy football games and select men’s basketball games, all conference controlled football and men’s basketball games from The American will air on an ESPN network or ESPN+."

https://theamerican.org/news/2019/3/27/g...nsion.aspx

NOTE: What this seems to indicate is that at least 20 games will be broadcast on ABC, ESPN, or ESPN2, and an additional ~20 games will be broadcasted on ESPNU, bringing the total to a minimum of 40 games on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPNU.

Thus, if - for example - 22 AAC games happen to be broadcasted on ABC, ESPN, or ESPN2 in a given season, at least 18 AAC games would have to be broadcasted on ESPNU.

.


It would be an interesting quantitative study if someone charted the number of viewers each non-P5 conference has brought in.

Almost every year since it's name switch from the OBE, the AAC has dominated the Top 25 Narrative (i.e. the Access Bowl chase) and that has powered significantly better viewership than any other non-P5 conference.

It's the reason the AAC landed the Billion dollar ESPN deal. The viewers were there. Conferences like the MAC/MWC/Sun Belt have had a hard time grabbing viewers in large numbers.

That's why when people try to argue the merits of another conference, like the MWC, they completely miss (or ignore) the greater picture of viewership - and the role the AAC's dominance of the NY6 position has played in capturing those viewers.

I'd argue that the top AAC brands have gotten a ton more exposure than most teams in the P5.

Prior to COVID, 3 AAC programs made the Top 25 most nationally broadcasted teams in the sport. That's HUGE. Of course the Big 12 is largely benefitting from that now (especially with Cincinnati getting most of those spots post 2020) but eventually the new AAC programs will build their brands through ABC & ESPN National broadcasts.

2021 Conference Controlled Inventory Viewership:
B10 205,758,000
SEC 156,977,000
B12 90,325,000
ACC 68,366,000
P12 65,080,000
AAC 25,952,000
mwc 7,173,000
SBC 5,838,000
MAC 3,649,000
CUSA 412,000

2021 Total Viewership:
B10 215,326,000
SEC 184,869,000
B12 100,283,000
ACC 80,979,000
P12 79,623,000
AAC 46,422,000
mwc 15,332,000
SBC 10,302,000
MAC 11,358,000
CUSA 5,746,000

That's all pretty consistent with the previous handful of years. AAC gets 30-40% of the lowest viewed contract-bowl-conferences and around 15% of the top 2. AAC viewership dwarfs any of the G4s. (And all the primary media rights contracts dollars follow the viewership ratios pretty closely.)
Of note for Sun Belt 2021 reflects their new and vastly expanded ESPN coverage - up to 15 games on ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU compared to the AACs 5 on ABC, 20 on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 and 40 on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU. IN other words this is ALREADY the improved Sun Belt exposure - not much improvement left to come.

Mods, can we sticky this somewhere?? I have been wanting to see data like this for a very long time!!!
05-14-2022 07:08 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #296
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(05-09-2022 11:17 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(05-09-2022 07:40 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-06-2022 11:16 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  What doesn't get talked about enough is the synergy between the AAC6 and the incumbent American Athletic schools.

Every new addition is joining a fellow AAC institution with 8 years of history in their region.

- Charlotte joins ECU, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against ECU's recruits.

- UAB joins Memphis, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against Memphis's recruits.

- FAU joins USF, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against USF's recruits.

- North Texas/UTSA/Rice joins SMU, and they'll get a good bump by competing for recruits that play against SMU's recruits.

The AAC's 14-team expansion was very strategic and the incoming schools will build on a good reputation that has already 'planted seeds in the recruiting fields' in their region.

The coup de grace is the AAC6 will get the benefit of an ESPN contract that the originals took 8 years to secure. Despite the loss of the Big12(3), the equity they put into the AAC will be bestowed upon the new programs.

This expansion works because Mike Aresco had the acumen to sign a long-term deal. He took criticism on this board for that; and that deal ended up pulling a rabbit out of the proverbial hat. That 12-year billion dollar ESPN deal was prescient. The AAC6 programs are hooked up for the next decade.

IMO, if the American ever has reason to expand again, they'll use the same formula. Any addition will most likely be a regional foe for an established team. The only exception would be Army and Air Force. However, they'd still step into a fierce conference rivalry.

Three things come to mind:

First, regarding the pairings of the old and new AAC members you mention, this, like backfill adds always do, feels like a bad thing for the existing members. I mean, another way of putting the Charlotte and ECU situation is that Charlotte now can more effectively compete against ECU for recruits - good for UNCC, bad for ECU. And on down the line.

Second, about Aresco and the wiseness of a long-term deal, this would sound good (sort of) except that in effect the 2020 was renegotiated. Reportedly, the old AAC schools are keeping their $7m a year because the noobs are being brought in at $3.5m a school. That's a per-school pay cut of from $7m a year on average to $5.5m a year on average. That only happens if a deal is renegotiated, which this one apparently was.

So on the floor, the length of the deal proved to be of no protection, as the deal included clauses that allowed ESPN to revise it due to composition changes, and yet on the ceiling, the AAC is still stuck with a measly $7m a year (nothing "P6" about that) for 12 long years, while everyone else will be going up during that time, save for the hapless ACC.

Finally, as to whether the new schools will beef up and make the AAC a stronger conference, only time will tell. But IMO it is telling that four of the new schools - UNT, FAU, UTSA and Charlotte - were all brought in to CUSA back in 2012-2013 after the AAC acquired schools. This was done with general approval, that CUSA was adding schools with good potential, making the best of a bad situation after losing teams to the AAC.

But rather than CUSA becoming dominant as the "best of the rest" G5 league, CUSA went in to the toilet, falling behind the SBC among the G5 conferences, a total train wreck. I mean, the bottom line is, in 2013 CUSA was able to get schools from the SBC. This year, the SBC was able to get schools from CUSA. When has that kind of switcheroo ever happened before?

Now those same schools are being brought up to the AAC. Hopefully this time things will work out better for their new conference than it did for CUSA.

If you take the same payout and pay the same amount of the 3 leaving to 6 teams, you don't have to renegotiate. I'm sure ESPN was consulted. My point is more that ESPN probably said "you're getting the same thing, do what you want with it". Having to renegotiate would be adding 6 teams to replace the 3, and expecting 7m per team.

In a vacuum, you have a deal that ends 10 years from now, vs. one that could be up for renewal discussions now. That's the comparison. From the standpoint of the current AAC teams, which is what matters here, Aresco kept us whole.

IMO, the difference between what I call a "renegotiation" and you call a "consultation" is likely semantic.

Bottom line to me is, ESPN was likely not obligated to pay the AAC that $78m a year or whatever the 2020 agreement was once UCF, UH and Cincy left. There was a composition clause, which means ESPN was allowed to open up the deal and a bargain had to be reached. It wasn't a "look in" kind of thing where either party is free to reject changes the other wants and can enforce the existing deal. So to me, this means the long-term deal Aresco signed didn't protect us in any way.

So I do not see how Aresco was able to "keep us whole". To keep the amount at $78m, we had to bring in six schools to replace the three that left.

In the end, it was the Remainers that kept themselves whole by voting to bring in the six noobs at a lower rate. Absent that, our per-school payout falls from $7m on average to $5.5m on average. We, the AAC, took a pay cut, the Remainers just decided to make the noobs shoulder all of the losses.
(This post was last modified: 05-14-2022 08:24 PM by quo vadis.)
05-14-2022 08:51 AM
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slhNavy91 Online
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Post: #297
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(05-14-2022 07:08 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  
(05-03-2022 07:51 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(05-03-2022 02:04 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  
(04-28-2022 12:17 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  
(04-28-2022 11:47 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The AAC press release announcing the 2019 deal said:

Football

A minimum of 40 regular-season telecasts per season on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU, including at least 20 across ABC, ESPN and ESPN2 ....

https://theamerican.org/news/2019/3/27/g...nsion.aspx

Since this is a hotly debated topic, the rest of the section specifying ESPN's football broadcasting of AAC football games is also of interest:

Football

"A minimum of 40 regular-season telecasts per season on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU, including at least 20 across ABC, ESPN and ESPN2, which represents increased annual exposure across those ESPN networks."

"A similar number of Thursday and Friday contests."

"The American Championship game will be televised each year on ABC or ESPN."

"New to ESPN’s TV rights beginning in 2020-21 are all Navy-controlled football games versus Notre Dame, plus first pick of the remaining Navy-controlled football games each year (excluding any games versus Army and Air Force). Beyond select Navy football games and select men’s basketball games, all conference controlled football and men’s basketball games from The American will air on an ESPN network or ESPN+."

https://theamerican.org/news/2019/3/27/g...nsion.aspx

NOTE: What this seems to indicate is that at least 20 games will be broadcast on ABC, ESPN, or ESPN2, and an additional ~20 games will be broadcasted on ESPNU, bringing the total to a minimum of 40 games on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPNU.

Thus, if - for example - 22 AAC games happen to be broadcasted on ABC, ESPN, or ESPN2 in a given season, at least 18 AAC games would have to be broadcasted on ESPNU.

.


It would be an interesting quantitative study if someone charted the number of viewers each non-P5 conference has brought in.

Almost every year since it's name switch from the OBE, the AAC has dominated the Top 25 Narrative (i.e. the Access Bowl chase) and that has powered significantly better viewership than any other non-P5 conference.

It's the reason the AAC landed the Billion dollar ESPN deal. The viewers were there. Conferences like the MAC/MWC/Sun Belt have had a hard time grabbing viewers in large numbers.

That's why when people try to argue the merits of another conference, like the MWC, they completely miss (or ignore) the greater picture of viewership - and the role the AAC's dominance of the NY6 position has played in capturing those viewers.

I'd argue that the top AAC brands have gotten a ton more exposure than most teams in the P5.

Prior to COVID, 3 AAC programs made the Top 25 most nationally broadcasted teams in the sport. That's HUGE. Of course the Big 12 is largely benefitting from that now (especially with Cincinnati getting most of those spots post 2020) but eventually the new AAC programs will build their brands through ABC & ESPN National broadcasts.

2021 Conference Controlled Inventory Viewership:
B10 205,758,000
SEC 156,977,000
B12 90,325,000
ACC 68,366,000
P12 65,080,000
AAC 25,952,000
mwc 7,173,000
SBC 5,838,000
MAC 3,649,000
CUSA 412,000

2021 Total Viewership:
B10 215,326,000
SEC 184,869,000
B12 100,283,000
ACC 80,979,000
P12 79,623,000
AAC 46,422,000
mwc 15,332,000
SBC 10,302,000
MAC 11,358,000
CUSA 5,746,000

That's all pretty consistent with the previous handful of years. AAC gets 30-40% of the lowest viewed contract-bowl-conferences and around 15% of the top 2. AAC viewership dwarfs any of the G4s. (And all the primary media rights contracts dollars follow the viewership ratios pretty closely.)
Of note for Sun Belt 2021 reflects their new and vastly expanded ESPN coverage - up to 15 games on ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU compared to the AACs 5 on ABC, 20 on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 and 40 on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU. IN other words this is ALREADY the improved Sun Belt exposure - not much improvement left to come.

Mods, can we sticky this somewhere?? I have been wanting to see data like this for a very long time!!!

We've been having data-driven discussions like this over on the AAC board for a very long time!!!

2021 season (and some cumulative): https://csnbbs.com/thread-938049.html
2020 season (and some cumulative): https://csnbbs.com/thread-913423.html
2019 season (and some cumulative): https://csnbbs.com/thread-901519.html (this one lacks the stackup of all 10 conferences)
2018 season (and some cumulative): https://csnbbs.com/thread-867843.html
2017 season (and some cumulative): https://csnbbs.com/thread-853138.html

(I hope I'm not wrong in stifling my misgivings about actually inviting Realignment Board types over to the AAC board)
05-14-2022 10:52 AM
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slhNavy91 Online
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Post: #298
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(05-14-2022 07:08 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  
(05-03-2022 07:51 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(05-03-2022 02:04 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  
(04-28-2022 12:17 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  
(04-28-2022 11:47 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The AAC press release announcing the 2019 deal said:

Football

A minimum of 40 regular-season telecasts per season on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU, including at least 20 across ABC, ESPN and ESPN2 ....

https://theamerican.org/news/2019/3/27/g...nsion.aspx

Since this is a hotly debated topic, the rest of the section specifying ESPN's football broadcasting of AAC football games is also of interest:

Football

"A minimum of 40 regular-season telecasts per season on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU, including at least 20 across ABC, ESPN and ESPN2, which represents increased annual exposure across those ESPN networks."

"A similar number of Thursday and Friday contests."

"The American Championship game will be televised each year on ABC or ESPN."

"New to ESPN’s TV rights beginning in 2020-21 are all Navy-controlled football games versus Notre Dame, plus first pick of the remaining Navy-controlled football games each year (excluding any games versus Army and Air Force). Beyond select Navy football games and select men’s basketball games, all conference controlled football and men’s basketball games from The American will air on an ESPN network or ESPN+."

https://theamerican.org/news/2019/3/27/g...nsion.aspx

NOTE: What this seems to indicate is that at least 20 games will be broadcast on ABC, ESPN, or ESPN2, and an additional ~20 games will be broadcasted on ESPNU, bringing the total to a minimum of 40 games on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPNU.

Thus, if - for example - 22 AAC games happen to be broadcasted on ABC, ESPN, or ESPN2 in a given season, at least 18 AAC games would have to be broadcasted on ESPNU.

.


It would be an interesting quantitative study if someone charted the number of viewers each non-P5 conference has brought in.

Almost every year since it's name switch from the OBE, the AAC has dominated the Top 25 Narrative (i.e. the Access Bowl chase) and that has powered significantly better viewership than any other non-P5 conference.

It's the reason the AAC landed the Billion dollar ESPN deal. The viewers were there. Conferences like the MAC/MWC/Sun Belt have had a hard time grabbing viewers in large numbers.

That's why when people try to argue the merits of another conference, like the MWC, they completely miss (or ignore) the greater picture of viewership - and the role the AAC's dominance of the NY6 position has played in capturing those viewers.

I'd argue that the top AAC brands have gotten a ton more exposure than most teams in the P5.

Prior to COVID, 3 AAC programs made the Top 25 most nationally broadcasted teams in the sport. That's HUGE. Of course the Big 12 is largely benefitting from that now (especially with Cincinnati getting most of those spots post 2020) but eventually the new AAC programs will build their brands through ABC & ESPN National broadcasts.

2021 Conference Controlled Inventory Viewership:
B10 205,758,000
SEC 156,977,000
B12 90,325,000
ACC 68,366,000
P12 65,080,000
AAC 25,952,000
mwc 7,173,000
SBC 5,838,000
MAC 3,649,000
CUSA 412,000

2021 Total Viewership:
B10 215,326,000
SEC 184,869,000
B12 100,283,000
ACC 80,979,000
P12 79,623,000
AAC 46,422,000
mwc 15,332,000
SBC 10,302,000
MAC 11,358,000
CUSA 5,746,000

That's all pretty consistent with the previous handful of years. AAC gets 30-40% of the lowest viewed contract-bowl-conferences and around 15% of the top 2. AAC viewership dwarfs any of the G4s. (And all the primary media rights contracts dollars follow the viewership ratios pretty closely.)
Of note for Sun Belt 2021 reflects their new and vastly expanded ESPN coverage - up to 15 games on ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU compared to the AACs 5 on ABC, 20 on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 and 40 on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU. IN other words this is ALREADY the improved Sun Belt exposure - not much improvement left to come.

Mods, can we sticky this somewhere?? I have been wanting to see data like this for a very long time!!!

Rather than sticky'd....moved to the AAC board.
05-14-2022 02:25 PM
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Tiger1983 Offline
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Post: #299
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
No, unless the new members realize or improve their potential. The new AAC will be fighting with the SBC for the spot after the dominant MWC.
05-14-2022 03:01 PM
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Milwaukee Online
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Post: #300
RE: At 14 teams, Will the AAC Maintain Dominance Over the NY6/Access Spot?
(05-14-2022 03:01 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  No, unless the new members realize or improve their potential. The new AAC will be fighting with the SBC for the spot after the dominant MWC.

There will be a fight for dominance, all right, but it will be a 3-way fight between the MWC, SBC, and AAC.

The idea that the MWC will be "dominant" is based on one season: 2021. The SBC (with 2023-24 member Marshall counted as an SBC team) and MWC were essentially tied in 2019 and 2020.

The "dominant MWC" finished the 2020 season and the Sun Belt were tied with an average rank of #8.5 in the Massey Composite, in 2019 and 2020.

The MWC had an average of 3.5 football teams in the final 2019 and 2020 top 50. The SBC (including Marshall) had an average of 3.0 teams in the top 50.

.

Regarding the AAC, it's too early to say whether the AAC will lag behind the MWC and SBC in football or not, because while it will lose its 3 strongest programs, their "shoes" will be filled by the 3 next strongest programs, which may win close to the same number of games that UC, UCF, and UH won.

.
05-14-2022 05:10 PM
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