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Current Roster- Flaws, Strengths, Best Case, Worst Case
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bearcatmark Offline
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Current Roster- Flaws, Strengths, Best Case, Worst Case
There's been a lot of talk about this team, what it needs, who can play at this level, etc. I thought I'd go through the roster and try to project.

DDJ- The only guy who could create a shot. A good and willing passer, protects the ball, makes his foul shots. He's been bad from 3, just OK from 2 and at times can stop the ball. To me he is what he is, which can be really good if he's in a 3rd option type role. He needs a situation where he takes more spot up shots and fewer step backs. Step backs should be reserved for late in the shot clock if he has the ball and when he's really feeling it. His ability to be better really comes down to what we put around him. I love him as a piece, but he can't be your only creator.

Davenport- 35% from three given the degree of difficulty is more impressive than many give him credit for. He doesn't turn it over and makes his free throws. He can't create for others and honestly that's never going to be a part of his game. I thought his rebounding improved a lot, but still needs to get better. Right now his best role is a heat check, small ball 4 off the bench. As a starter he'll never be a 3. To be effective as our starting 4 he needs to get stronger and improve his quickness. Really good 4s scored over top of him too often. He has to be better at pushing them away from the basket. On offense, he needs to find a move when teams overplay his 3. He's never going to be a creator, but he needs to be able to create something for himself when teams overplay. He's another guy like DDJ that would benefit greatly on offense from a couple creators. If he can be the screener with a true wing creator he'll get shots off the pop. He'll also get shots if teams have to help off him.

Saunders- Is strengths are speed and a much improved shooter. The shooting development this year was encouraging. UC desperately needs him to 1. be more sound on defense, 2. cut down on turnovers and 3. be stronger at the rim. He could get a step on his man but nobody was scared he was finishing over or through the help defense when he did.

Lahkin - His per rebounding rates are exceptional and he made 57% of his 2 point shots. Honestly, he is a guy who should develop IF he can stay healthy. I thought he showed really good defensive instincts, but pretty terrible defensive understanding. The later is probably easier to fix with development. His steal rate was the best on the team. His block rate was fine. On offense double teams or even showing doubles and backing off really messed with him. He was thinking to much instead of reacting. Hopefully another offseason will improve his understanding of the game on both ends. If he is reacting instead of thinking, he's got the skills and instincts to be a guy.

MAW- He's a role player that plays way too big a role on this team. I think his 3 point shot would improve if his role lessened (like it was his freshman year), but is never going to be great. He needs to get stronger at the rim. His ideal role is a bench guy, who you bring in for ball handling and free throw shooting if you have a late lead. I don't think he has much upside beyond that.

Ody Oguama- Strong rebounding rates. Showed some offensive skill. He had bad defensive understanding and bad defensive instincts. That's two areas where he needs drastic improvement. I thought his defensive understanding improved during the season but his instincts are still bad. He jumps at the wrong time, he takes bad angles, he does a bad job staying vertical. He's got some talent and skill, but committed 6 fouls per 40. He needs to cut that number to around 4. Also improving from the line would help.

John Newman- Definitely can be am effective starter. He's not a great passer, so he's not really a wing creator, but he does most things relatively well. He needs to do a better job getting to the rim and needs to improve his foul shooting. He's athletic enough that he needs to put more pressure on the defense. If there is an angle he should be able to attack.

Jarrett Hensley - Probably the biggest unknown from my perspective. He showed flashes late with his athleticism. I thought his rebounding was better and he seemed to have a better understanding of what he was doing. He needs to improve his ball handling a ton. He needs to improve his shooting. He played the 3 a lot this year, but I really don't see him as an effective 3. I just don't think he's quick enough and doesn't give you any creation for others. Maybe he'll show that next year. He's got the body and the athleticism, but I don't think he's shown much beyond that.

AJ McGinnis - Only shot 27% from 3, but on 15 shots that means very little. You could see he has a pure shot. He seems reasonably athletic as well. He needs to great stronger and improve on defense. We saw so little I have a hard time knowing if he can develop and play at this level.
 
03-21-2022 11:39 AM
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OKIcat Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Current Roster- Flaws, Strengths, Best Case, Worst Case
Really good analysis. There appears to be no "alpha dog" on this current roster, nor anyone who could become one, which is of some concern. Most everyone just getting better at the deficiencies you highlighted should result in substantial improvement. In spite of losing efforts that were downright painful to watch this past year, they won 18 games and could have/should have won up to a half dozen more where they were in the heat of battle late. That would have put this group in the NIT at worst; maybe in the NCAA.
 
03-21-2022 11:52 AM
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RE: Current Roster- Flaws, Strengths, Best Case, Worst Case
Lots of flaws, no alpha and no room for picking one up. DDJ and Davenport will suck all of the air out of the portal at SG and PF unless you are just looking for more role players.
 
03-21-2022 11:58 AM
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skyblade Offline
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RE: Current Roster- Flaws, Strengths, Best Case, Worst Case
Very good analysis, not really anything I disagree with.

Some additional thoughts on some guys:

Ody - was rated Wake Forest's top defender on EvanMiya in 2020-21, granted they sucked on defense overall and also had a better foul rate (though 5.0 is still pretty bad). But there is reason to hope that part of his struggle is due to learning a new system and given a full off-season we will see significantly better defense from him. He was our best offensive big man for most of the year, but also our worst on defense.

Davenport - for as much as people say he sucked on defense, his numbers aren't really that bad. He put up a respectable RB rate, tied for first with MAW in +/- and had good EvanMiya defensive numbers. His defense stood out when it was bad because he'd be clearly in a mismatch and get abused (or just get lost and leave guys wide open), but there were a lot of games where he more than held his own.

Newman - He struggled with ankle injuries for a good portion of the year. He showed flashes of ability to hit a pull up mid-range jumper. Hoping to see better offense out of him next season.

Hensley - I also have trouble seeing him as a 3, though it seems like Wes may intend for him to continue playing there. I guess if he plays the 3 with Davenport as the 4, he can help overcome some of Davenport's deficiencies. He's probably the guy I have the most optimism for given Chad's reviews in pre-season last fall. He flashed some shooting ability, some passing ability and the ability to rebound outside of his zone. But he didn't seem comfortable/confident most of the time.

MAW - I have more hope for than you. He led the team in +/- because he plays defense and does little things. I'm hoping that he can improve his 3-point shooting and become more of a 3-and-D guard. That will help open lanes up for other guys to drive. He may be our 6th man next year (if DDJ stays and we get a veteran guard transfer), but I expect him to be part of a 3 guard rotation and still be above 20 minutes per game.

McGinnis - Rumor is he was really bad at defense in fall practice last season. But they also said he's a greater shooter and has more passing/driving ability than Mason did. I agree he seems to have potential, but I'm not expecting a lot from him next year.
 
(This post was last modified: 03-21-2022 12:16 PM by skyblade.)
03-21-2022 12:15 PM
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rath v2.0 Offline
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RE: Current Roster- Flaws, Strengths, Best Case, Worst Case
Davenport sucked on D. He is the least aware, least able to rotate 4 I’ve ever seen get 20+ minutes a game at UC.

He just kills his teammates’ defensive efficiency by hanging them out to dry on switches and rotations or lack thereof.

And I just love seeing our assistant coaches scream at him to quit walking up the freaking court. He’s a gem at times. But he’s our hometown gem. 2 more years of him helping with the culture.
 
03-21-2022 12:22 PM
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cincy11 Offline
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RE: Current Roster- Flaws, Strengths, Best Case, Worst Case
Good stuff, Mark.

Maybe I’m a jerk for saying this but I really hope Mika graduates early & decides to move on.
 
03-21-2022 12:52 PM
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CliftonAve Online
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RE: Current Roster- Flaws, Strengths, Best Case, Worst Case
Saunders hits the portal
 
(This post was last modified: 03-21-2022 01:19 PM by CliftonAve.)
03-21-2022 01:19 PM
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icehole3 Offline
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RE: Current Roster- Flaws, Strengths, Best Case, Worst Case
(03-21-2022 12:22 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Davenport sucked on D. He is the least aware, least able to rotate 4 I’ve ever seen get 20+ minutes a game at UC.

He just kills his teammates’ defensive efficiency by hanging them out to dry on switches and rotations or lack thereof.

And I just love seeing our assistant coaches scream at him to quit walking up the freaking court. He’s a gem at times. But he’s our hometown gem. 2 more years of him helping with the culture.

This. Main reason I would cut off the games before the final buzzer.
 
03-21-2022 02:30 PM
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bcat1997 Offline
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RE: Current Roster- Flaws, Strengths, Best Case, Worst Case
(03-21-2022 11:52 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  Really good analysis. There appears to be no "alpha dog" on this current roster, nor anyone who could become one, which is of some concern. Most everyone just getting better at the deficiencies you highlighted should result in substantial improvement. In spite of losing efforts that were downright painful to watch this past year, they won 18 games and could have/should have won up to a half dozen more where they were in the heat of battle late. That would have put this group in the NIT at worst; maybe in the NCAA.

Meh, they got fat off a bunch of Q4 games. We were 6-14 in Q1-Q3 games. That will put it in a different light.
 
03-21-2022 03:03 PM
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RE: Current Roster- Flaws, Strengths, Best Case, Worst Case
(03-21-2022 11:39 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Saunders- Is strengths are speed and a much improved shooter. The shooting development this year was encouraging. UC desperately needs him to 1. be more sound on defense, 2. cut down on turnovers and 3. be stronger at the rim. He could get a step on his man but nobody was scared he was finishing over or through the help defense when he did.

Saunders is gone
 
03-21-2022 06:29 PM
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bearcatmark Offline
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RE: Current Roster- Flaws, Strengths, Best Case, Worst Case
(03-21-2022 06:29 PM)cpawstoney Wrote:  
(03-21-2022 11:39 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Saunders- Is strengths are speed and a much improved shooter. The shooting development this year was encouraging. UC desperately needs him to 1. be more sound on defense, 2. cut down on turnovers and 3. be stronger at the rim. He could get a step on his man but nobody was scared he was finishing over or through the help defense when he did.

Saunders is gone

He wasn't when I posted. I mentioned in a prior post I thought he was one of the guys that could transfer, so that's not surprising. I was posting in the moment, not saying everyone would be back. I suspect one more will transfer before we're said and done.
 
03-21-2022 06:52 PM
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RE: Current Roster- Flaws, Strengths, Best Case, Worst Case
(03-21-2022 06:52 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  
(03-21-2022 06:29 PM)cpawstoney Wrote:  
(03-21-2022 11:39 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Saunders- Is strengths are speed and a much improved shooter. The shooting development this year was encouraging. UC desperately needs him to 1. be more sound on defense, 2. cut down on turnovers and 3. be stronger at the rim. He could get a step on his man but nobody was scared he was finishing over or through the help defense when he did.

Saunders is gone

He wasn't when I posted. I mentioned in a prior post I thought he was one of the guys that could transfer, so that's not surprising. I was posting in the moment, not saying everyone would be back. I suspect one more will transfer before we're said and done.

Seems like the rumor is floating elsewhere that MAW may transfer. It makes some sense if he's not going to start. But having no returning PG's wouldn't be ideal.
 
03-21-2022 07:10 PM
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JFlight21 Offline
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RE: Current Roster- Flaws, Strengths, Best Case, Worst Case
Lakhin has the most upside for sure so you clearly need a big offseason out of him. Get another good starter, preferably a guard that can create and you can probably have a decent top 50ish type of team. Skillings is the real wild card and could help accelerate this process and set us up decently for the Big 12. If he's on the Cumberland/Evans level you have one great building block and then hopefully 1-2 more come in the 2023 class.

I honestly have no read on the type of player Wes will be able to get in the portal. While I like John Newman, you need 2 guys marketably better than him. It'll be a very interesting few weeks.
 
03-21-2022 08:06 PM
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RE: Current Roster- Flaws, Strengths, Best Case, Worst Case
With Saunders transferring out, I expect MAW to stay, but his performance this year was very disappointing, particularly on offense. Guy is a good ball handler and good on free throws but his shooting from distance is very poor and has actually gotten worse as he has gained more experience. Obviously not an ideal situation. He needs to get to 12 points per game as a senior, be a better floor leader and be more of an offensive threat or we will once again struggle against better competition. I think it’s entirely possible that he’s not capable of filling each of those needed roles, and that spells trouble in River City.
 
03-21-2022 10:19 PM
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RE: Current Roster- Flaws, Strengths, Best Case, Worst Case
(03-21-2022 10:19 PM)vabearcat Wrote:  With Saunders transferring out, I expect MAW to stay, but his performance this year was very disappointing, particularly on offense. Guy is a good ball handler and good on free throws but his shooting from distance is very poor and has actually gotten worse as he has gained more experience. Obviously not an ideal situation. He needs to get to 12 points per game as a senior, be a better floor leader and be more of an offensive threat or we will once again struggle against better competition. I think it’s entirely possible that he’s not capable of filling each of those needed roles, and that spells trouble in River City.

I wouldn't worry about MAW not being able to fill all those roles next year, since he won't be our starting PG.

Our starting PG, center, and a forward position will all be filled by players with the name of Trance Ferr.
 
03-23-2022 08:49 AM
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RealDeal Offline
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RE: Current Roster- Flaws, Strengths, Best Case, Worst Case
(03-21-2022 10:19 PM)vabearcat Wrote:  With Saunders transferring out, I expect MAW to stay, but his performance this year was very disappointing, particularly on offense. Guy is a good ball handler and good on free throws but his shooting from distance is very poor and has actually gotten worse as he has gained more experience. Obviously not an ideal situation. He needs to get to 12 points per game as a senior, be a better floor leader and be more of an offensive threat or we will once again struggle against better competition. I think it’s entirely possible that he’s not capable of filling each of those needed roles, and that spells trouble in River City.

Not necessarily. On the BCJ pod they indicated that they may have been told they want to find a starting caliber PG as a transfer. Saunders wasn't satisfied not having the likelihood of starting. Maybe MAW won't either. Although with MAW's size he's capable of backing up both spots so he's more likely to play solid minutes without starting.
 
03-23-2022 09:48 AM
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RE: Current Roster- Flaws, Strengths, Best Case, Worst Case
MAW is really a combo guard and I bet he likes the idea of being used in a role that he is more comfortable.
 
03-23-2022 10:18 AM
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RealDeal Offline
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RE: Current Roster- Flaws, Strengths, Best Case, Worst Case
(03-23-2022 10:18 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  MAW is really a combo guard and I bet he likes the idea of being used in a role that he is more comfortable.

I don't disagree. His best play was as a freshman when he had Jarron as the primary playmaker. Maybe as a 20-25 min combo guy off the bench we see the promising player we saw as a freshman.
 
03-23-2022 10:21 AM
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RE: Current Roster- Flaws, Strengths, Best Case, Worst Case
(03-23-2022 10:21 AM)RealDeal Wrote:  
(03-23-2022 10:18 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  MAW is really a combo guard and I bet he likes the idea of being used in a role that he is more comfortable.

I don't disagree. His best play was as a freshman when he had Jarron as the primary playmaker. Maybe as a 20-25 min combo guy off the bench we see the promising player we saw as a freshman.

If we are simply hoping that MAW in his 4th year resembles the promising player we saw as a freshman, I would think it would be better to give those minutes to a promising freshman who could be better than that when they hit their fourth year.
 
03-23-2022 11:02 AM
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skylinecat Offline
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RE: Current Roster- Flaws, Strengths, Best Case, Worst Case
(03-23-2022 11:02 AM)namrag Wrote:  
(03-23-2022 10:21 AM)RealDeal Wrote:  
(03-23-2022 10:18 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  MAW is really a combo guard and I bet he likes the idea of being used in a role that he is more comfortable.

I don't disagree. His best play was as a freshman when he had Jarron as the primary playmaker. Maybe as a 20-25 min combo guy off the bench we see the promising player we saw as a freshman.

If we are simply hoping that MAW in his 4th year resembles the promising player we saw as a freshman, I would think it would be better to give those minutes to a promising freshman who could be better than that when they hit their fourth year.

But then you are stuck with that player (unless you force them out) for another 3 years. At least with MAW you know he is gone next year or can transfer for his covid year if he desires and the spot is open for a highly rated freshman. No kid that will be a 2023 recruit wants to hear "well don't worry about this kid that is a freshman in front of you, we plan to force him out so you have an opening.
 
03-23-2022 04:10 PM
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