(03-13-2022 05:42 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote: No, the first rule is always look who’s on the committee, and make your predictions off that.
Bernadette McGlade was on the committee so even if Richmond didn’t win today, the A-10 was getting a 2nd bid with Dayton (First Team Out).
The A-10 deserved 4 bids. The NET was totally designed to screw over non-P5/Big East conferences.
The top six of the A-10 has a NET rating 19 spots below their RPI. By RPI the A-10 had six top 62 teams.
The Top six of the A-10 went 7-2 against the ACC, including wins over Va Tech and Miami. And also, you know, Kansas, Alabama, Marquette.
The NET includes the predictive metrics which devalues experience, and calls it "luck." The top "Luck" teams in KenPom are all very experienced teams (and Wisconsin). Providence is 5 seniors and 2 juniors in their 7-man rotation... Ken Pom calls them the luckiest team in basketball.
St. Bonaventure is Top 20 in "Luck" because they have five senior starters who usually (A-10 quarters not withstanding) pull games out late because they've played those games 60 times and are 50-10 in them.
But Bonaventure has no bench. So with a hurt PG and the SG sliding over to PG for two weeks before the Va Tech game; the hobbled PG plays vs the Hokies and both guards were terrible (1-for-10) because they hadn't practiced at those spots for 2 weeks.
Va Tech got up big early, so the Bonnies pulled both guys and used bench guys who played 150 minutes all year for the last 15 minutes. And an 18-point deficit went to 37 in garbage time.
On 79 possessions, so the efficiency based on 100 possessions was more like a 46-point loss.
Bona's efficiency numbers got absolutely destroyed. Now Bona counts as a Q2/Q3 instead of a Q1/Q2. That crushed the A-10 numbers.
You go pound for pound, and the Top six of A-10 is better and deeper than the top six of the MWC, who got four bids. (Boise St lost 7 times. Two to Bona and St. Louis). Better than the top six of the American (who had three decent teams, but after that a pile of mush), and better than ACC teams 2-7, who again, the A-10 held a 7-2 head-to-head record against, while playing almost all road/neutral.
The ACC and American got a TON of credit for beating Q3s. And the A-10 did not get the same respect.