Almost Selection Sunday. Working on my bracket predictions now. For now enjoy my bubble rankings.
I included Creighton who actually is probably higher than some teams not on my bubble at this point, but I had already done most of their write-up before their Big East run. Everyone above this list I think will definitely be in the tournament. The list goes from most likely to make it to least likely to make it. Assuming Davidson wins the Atlantic 10, Michigan is my last team in the field.
Ranking the Bubble
Creighton- When I started this I wasn’t sure they would make it, but the trip to the Big East tournament championship probably makes them a lock at this point. They are 7-5 Q1 and 4-4 Q2. They swept UConn, beat Nova at home and have a neutral court win over Providence. They were 3-0 against Marquette. Really their only issue is they were swept by bubble Xavier, but they gap between those teams is so big at this point it really doesn’t matter.
Davidson- You hope the committee rewards a team like this. 24-5 overall. 5-4 vs. Q1/Q2. 13-5 q1 through Q3. They have had a neutral court win over Alabama (who will make the tournament) and a road win over bubble VCU. They are 9-2 on the road. The A10 is a good conference. This resume should be enough.
TCU- Right behind Davidson in NET, but a completely different kind of resume. They went 8-10 in the loaded Big 12 (every team is top 75). 5-7 Q1, 4-3 Q2, 13-11 Q1 through Q3. A couple of those are elite wins, beating Kansas and Texas Tech. We also shouldn’t downplay the win at Hilton against Iowa State. They’ve probably done enough as well.
North Carolina- The Duke win likely put them over the top. 5-7 Q1/Q2 record is iffy, but 16-0 Q2/Q3 is going to help. They played a pretty strong schedule. They won at Duke and at VT for their 2 Q1 wins. It’s not an overly impressive resume, but there isn’t too much bad on it. Their win at Cameron should be enough to get them in the field.
Wyoming- The weakest resume of the 4 potential Mountain West bids, but honestly, it’s a tournament worthy resume. 4-4 Q1 is better than most the bubble and they combine that with a 6-1 Q2 record. None of their Q1 wins are tier 1 type wins (their best is probably home against Colorado State and Boise State), but it’s a reasonably strong resume and the kind the committee should and likely will reward.
San Francisco- Likely not in as good of shape as their 25 NET ranking would let you believe, but a team that should sneak in the field nonetheless. 3-6 Q1 isn’t great. 6-2 Q2 is fine. Combined 14-8 against Q1-Q3 is going to be better than much of the lesser bubble teams. Of course they did a lot of their damage against 1 bubble team (BYU). They do have a nice neutral court win against Davidson and are 7-2 on the road.
Miami (Fl)- Remember not to overvalue the actual NET ranking (Miami sits at 61). It’s the strength of wins and losses that ultimately get a team in the field (even if the committee doesn’t always evaluate that properly). Miami is 4-3 in Q1 games which is going to look good compared to the rest of the bubble. That 5-4 Q2 record isn’t hurting them either. They won at Duke, at bubble teams Virginia Tech and Wake Forest, as well as a neutral site win over North Texas. They have home wins over bubble teams UNC and Wake Forest. They also beat Wake on the road which probably puts them above Wake in the pecking order.
Virginia Tech- The trip the ACC Championship game just might do the trick. They are only 2-5 Q1 and 6-5 Q2. But they are really strong in the predictive metrics, so strong that I think it will and should make a difference. 2 wins over bubble Notre Dame and a recent neutral court win over UNC should help. Despite only going 11-9 in the ACC, I think they have a better version of the Notre Dame resume (unbalanced schedules can make for wonky conference results).
Rutgers – The lowest NET team that has a shot at the tournament. They were abysmal in the nonconference (and it was an abysmal nonconference schedule). However, they went 12-8 in a loaded big ten. They were 6-6 against Q1 teams at that included wins over Iowa, Purdue, Illinois and Wisconsin. Their road record is pretty bad (4-9) but those wins are over Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana and Maryland. I think they’ll find a spot at the end of the bracket.
Texas A&M- Probably out before the SEC tournament, but I suspect they played their way to the right side of the bubble. 4-9 Q1 but 5-0 Q2 for a respectable 9-9 Q1/Q2 record. They are 5-5 on the road and did some damage in neutral site games getting Auburn and Arkansas in the SEC tournament as well as a nice win over Notre Dame. The more I look at their resume, the more I think they have done enough.
SMU- Their predictive metrics and resume metrics mostly look like a tournament team. I think they should be in. They are 2-2 Q1 and 4-4 Q2. That’s not a lot of Q1/Q2 wins and the committee typically penalizes teams that get fat on Q3/Q4 teams. Their nonconference SOS of 273 won’t do them any favors. They have 2 wins over Memphis and a win over Houston. You’d hope that would carry some weight. They also have a win over Dayton who will be close to the bubble. I kind of think they’ll sneak in, but wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t.
Indiana- They weren’t a tournament team prior to the big ten tournament, the question now is, did they do enough? They’re 4-8 Q1, 4-4 Q2. That’s a cut line style resume. Most of their Q1 losses are upper tier Q1 losses. They have a win over Purdue and a neutral court win over Illinois. Their neutral court win over Notre Dame could come in handy if they are among the last couple teams considered.
Wake Forest- They have a really iffy resume. 1-4 against Q1, 4-3 Q2. Their best wins are road VT, and home against UNC and Notre Dame. This is an end of the bracket team or a team that just misses.
Michigan- Only 5-10 against Q1 and 3-3 against Q2. How much credit will the committee give to playing a ton of Q1 games, when you lose a bunch of them. The home win over Purdue is great. So is the home win of San Diego State. They have a couple nice road scalps as well, beating OSU and Indiana. They’ll probably be right at the cutline.
Xavier- If you took their resume and shook it up, spreading everything over the course of the season evenly you may feel better about it (which is why they could still sneak in). They are 5-8 Q1, 4-3 Q2 (so under .500 Q1/Q2) and have a couple Q3. The sweep of Creighton is nice and the neutral site win over Virginia Tech could carry some weight against another bubble team. They are a cutline type team that really depends on how committed the committee is to the entire body of work. If there is any eye test for the team they are now, they are going to be left out.
Oklahoma- 18-15 is going to be tough to get past, but the Big 12 is unbelievably deep and really tough at the top. Despite those losses they sit 39 NET. They just beat Baylor, who could be a 1 seed, have a win over Texas Tech and beat Arkansas on a neutral floor. They are 4-12 against Q1 teams and 6-2 Q2. It’s a marginal resume and probably too many losses but they could sneak in.
BYU- Another team at the end of the bracket, that I’m skeptical did enough. They are definitely behind San Francisco in the pecking order. The home St Marys win is great, but other than that there isn’t quite enough there. The loss to Pacific hurts. I’d be fine if they got in above a Michigan type team that has more but also had a ton more opportunities to get there, but I think they are more likely to be just outside.
Notre Dame- I honestly don’t see how you can put this team in the tournament. The Kentucky win is great and the win at Miami is nice, but this team is 4-9 in Q1/Q2 games. They got fat against bad teams going 17-1 in Q3/Q4. They also have 3 neutral court losses to teams that will be near the cutline (Virginia Tech, Indiana, and Texas A&M). You have to think that carries some weight when the committee tries to evaluate the end of the bracket. They went 15-5 in the ACC so maybe the committee will value that, but when you did deep this team doesn’t have a tournament resume.
Dayton- Their case really comes down to how much the committee cares about bad losses. Dayton has 3 really bad ones (3 losses to teams 248 and below in NET) and a loss to NET 226 on the road. Those losses really get in the way of a lot of good. Their 3-2 in Q1 games and those wins are Kansas (neutral), Virginia Tech (Home) and VCU (road). They are 6-5 in Q2 games including wins over tournament teams Miami (fl) and Davidson. Their Q1/Q2 record and wins is going to be better than most the bubble, but those bad losses are a huge anchor on the resume. The committee mostly values your wins more than your losses so I could see Dayton sneaking in, but bubble teams don’t usually have bad losses to this level and ultimately I think it will keep them out.
VCU- They have the opposite problem of Dayton. They did great against the bad teams but don’t have enough good wins. They are 3-3 against Q1 teams (fine) but only 3-5 against Q2 teams. Mid major teams really need to be over .500 against Q1/Q2 to give themselves a chance. I think they are out.
UAB- They made their conference championship. They sit 49 NET (and right around there in the predictive metrics). They are only 4-3 Q1/Q2 and racked up 12 Q4 wins. That typically doesn’t cut it.
North Texas- Similar resume to UAB. They are 6-4 against Q1/Q2, so there is a little more, but they have 11 Q4 wins. Probably not enough.
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Selection Sunday
