We win this conference tourney we are going to play ourselves right into the 8/9 seed game.

Kind of ironic considering how we have been hoping and praying up to this point just to get in, but at this point it looks like we are clearly IN and SMU most likely is as well.

Go Tigers! Win the whole damn thing, but that 8/9 game is a clear dead end for any tourney run historically/statistically. It’s the absolute worst spot you want to be in first round really.

And for fun, some what ifs…Lose to SMU we get an 11 and beat SMU, lose finals looks like a 10.

I’d rather be 10 or 11 than 8 or 9.

If we could make it to 7......

If we win the tourny we will top 25 and have a better resume than Houston.

Our ceiling is probably 5, our floor an 8.

If we win the trny----our seed should be similar to Houston's --- 7-10 - MAYBE as high as 6 - --and probably ranked higher than them in the final regular season AP/COACHES poll

They win the regular season

We win the trny

We sweep them in reg season

we beat them in trny

we sweep them 3-0

Our seeding would have to be similar

7

(03-09-2022 08:43 PM)jsw3ent Wrote:  If we win the trny----our seed will be similar to Houston's 7-10 - MAYBE as high as 6 - --and probably ranked higher than them in the final regular season AP/COACHES poll

They win the regular season

We win the trny

We sweep them in reg season

we beat them in trny

we sweep them 3-0

Our seeding would have to be similar

All of that said...I hope a 6 is possible...That is above what I think they will give us unless we absolutely destroy teams. Also I am not sure how much weight they will give the Houston game...They pretty much have the brackets set by that point.

Maybe they will be lazy and say if Memphis wins they get the higher seed and if Houston wins they get the higher seed.

(03-09-2022 08:43 PM)Stammers Wrote:  Our ceiling is probably 5, our floor an 8.

Thought u said our ceiling was 6. We won’t get a 5 but I could see a 6 a possibility if things fall out way.

(03-09-2022 09:07 PM)tigerderek Wrote:  

(03-09-2022 08:43 PM)Stammers Wrote:  Our ceiling is probably 5, our floor an 8.

Thought u said our ceiling was 6. We won’t get a 5 but I could see a 6 a possibility if things fall out way.

I am assuming he means 8 is the floor if we win the tourney.

(03-09-2022 08:59 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(03-09-2022 08:43 PM)jsw3ent Wrote:  If we win the trny----our seed will be similar to Houston's 7-10 - MAYBE as high as 6 - --and probably ranked higher than them in the final regular season AP/COACHES poll

They win the regular season

We win the trny

We sweep them in reg season

we beat them in trny

we sweep them 3-0

Our seeding would have to be similar

I don't understand how you are worried about making the tournament

and think we can get all the way to a 6 seed if we win 3 games.

Both cant be true...Unless you were playing Baylor and Kansas in 2 of those 3 games.

All of that said...I hope a 6 is possible...That is above what I think they will give us unless we absolutely destroy teams. Also I am not sure how much weight they will give the Houston game...They pretty much have the brackets set by that point.

WHEN/WHERE have I EVER said that I was afraid we were not going to make the tournament---even arter the 4 game losing streak ---when people were freaking out---I am on record saying PENNY would turn it around and that we would still make the tournament

If you are talking about the SMU discussion --you need to go reread what I said

I said if SMU beats us AGAIN--I dont think that we get in and they dont------I have stated at least 3-4 times in that/those threads that if SMU beats us AGAIN --that the AAC would probably get 3 bids

(03-09-2022 09:09 PM)jsw3ent Wrote:  

(03-09-2022 08:59 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(03-09-2022 08:43 PM)jsw3ent Wrote:  If we win the trny----our seed will be similar to Houston's 7-10 - MAYBE as high as 6 - --and probably ranked higher than them in the final regular season AP/COACHES poll

They win the regular season

We win the trny

We sweep them in reg season

we beat them in trny

we sweep them 3-0

Our seeding would have to be similar

I don't understand how you are worried about making the tournament

and think we can get all the way to a 6 seed if we win 3 games.

Both cant be true...Unless you were playing Baylor and Kansas in 2 of those 3 games.

All of that said...I hope a 6 is possible...That is above what I think they will give us unless we absolutely destroy teams. Also I am not sure how much weight they will give the Houston game...They pretty much have the brackets set by that point.

WHEN/WHERE have I EVER said that I was afraid we were not going to make the tournament---even arter the 4 game losing streak ---when people were freaking out---I am on record saying PENNY would turn it around and that we would still make the tournament

If you are talking about the SMU discussion --you need to go reread what I said

I said if SMU beats us AGAIN--I dont think that we get in and they dont------I have stated at least 3-4 times in that/those threads that if SMU beats us AGAIN --that the AAC would probably get 3 bids

It’s a fluid situation. There are scenarios where the bubble gets really tight, the tigers and smu both last 4-6 teams in where being swept would be really problematic. Especially if they beat Houston in title game.

The bubble is loosening up with Xavier and wake losing, plus no bid thieves so far. I think there is still a scenario where we could lose to smu and wind up in Dayton. But we will be in.

Lose in quarters, we will be nervous. Some more than others.

Would be awesome if we could play our way into a 6 and resume probably fits that at that point but I feel like non power teams are more likely to get under seeded. 7 seems like what I would bet on and not be surprised if they stuck us in an 8/9 with an underseeded mid major like they did with us and saint louis before

I just can't imagine the selection committee being kind to us. I can't ever remember them doing us any favors in the past. lol

I'm going with a 10, unless we win the AAC then bump it to a 9.

(03-09-2022 09:22 PM)Tigerspartan Wrote:  

(03-09-2022 09:09 PM)jsw3ent Wrote:  

(03-09-2022 08:59 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(03-09-2022 08:43 PM)jsw3ent Wrote:  If we win the trny----our seed will be similar to Houston's 7-10 - MAYBE as high as 6 - --and probably ranked higher than them in the final regular season AP/COACHES poll

They win the regular season

We win the trny

We sweep them in reg season

we beat them in trny

we sweep them 3-0

Our seeding would have to be similar

I don't understand how you are worried about making the tournament

and think we can get all the way to a 6 seed if we win 3 games.

Both cant be true...Unless you were playing Baylor and Kansas in 2 of those 3 games.

All of that said...I hope a 6 is possible...That is above what I think they will give us unless we absolutely destroy teams. Also I am not sure how much weight they will give the Houston game...They pretty much have the brackets set by that point.

WHEN/WHERE have I EVER said that I was afraid we were not going to make the tournament---even arter the 4 game losing streak ---when people were freaking out---I am on record saying PENNY would turn it around and that we would still make the tournament

If you are talking about the SMU discussion --you need to go reread what I said

I said if SMU beats us AGAIN--I dont think that we get in and they dont------I have stated at least 3-4 times in that/those threads that if SMU beats us AGAIN --that the AAC would probably get 3 bids

It’s a fluid situation. There are scenarios where the bubble gets really tight, the tigers and smu both last 4-6 teams in where being swept would be really problematic. Especially if they beat Houston in title game.

The bubble is loosening up with Xavier and wake losing, plus no bid thieves so far. I think there is still a scenario where we could lose to smu and wind up in Dayton. But we will be in.

Lose in quarters, we will be nervous. Some more than others.

I think you are right -----I also think if SMU beats us again---their seed is better than ours

If we are barely in ----and they are barely out---and they beat us 3 times--and they finish higher in the reg season---and they go farther in trny -----HOW HOW HOW could they justify letting us in and not SMU

If SMU beats us AGAIN --we better hope that the AAC gets 3 bids

For the record if we play them again--I think ---we get-um this time

(03-09-2022 09:41 PM)jsw3ent Wrote:  

(03-09-2022 09:22 PM)Tigerspartan Wrote:  

(03-09-2022 09:09 PM)jsw3ent Wrote:  

(03-09-2022 08:59 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(03-09-2022 08:43 PM)jsw3ent Wrote:  If we win the trny----our seed will be similar to Houston's 7-10 - MAYBE as high as 6 - --and probably ranked higher than them in the final regular season AP/COACHES poll

They win the regular season

We win the trny

We sweep them in reg season

we beat them in trny

we sweep them 3-0

Our seeding would have to be similar

I don't understand how you are worried about making the tournament

and think we can get all the way to a 6 seed if we win 3 games.

Both cant be true...Unless you were playing Baylor and Kansas in 2 of those 3 games.

All of that said...I hope a 6 is possible...That is above what I think they will give us unless we absolutely destroy teams. Also I am not sure how much weight they will give the Houston game...They pretty much have the brackets set by that point.

WHEN/WHERE have I EVER said that I was afraid we were not going to make the tournament---even arter the 4 game losing streak ---when people were freaking out---I am on record saying PENNY would turn it around and that we would still make the tournament

If you are talking about the SMU discussion --you need to go reread what I said

I said if SMU beats us AGAIN--I dont think that we get in and they dont------I have stated at least 3-4 times in that/those threads that if SMU beats us AGAIN --that the AAC would probably get 3 bids

It’s a fluid situation. There are scenarios where the bubble gets really tight, the tigers and smu both last 4-6 teams in where being swept would be really problematic. Especially if they beat Houston in title game.

The bubble is loosening up with Xavier and wake losing, plus no bid thieves so far. I think there is still a scenario where we could lose to smu and wind up in Dayton. But we will be in.

Lose in quarters, we will be nervous. Some more than others.

I think you are right -----I also think if SMU beats us again---their seed is better than ours

If we are barely in ----and they are barely out---and they beat us 3 times--and they finish higher in the reg season---and they go farther in trny -----HOW HOW HOW could they justify letting us in and not SMU

If SMU beats us AGAIN --we better hope that the AAC gets 3 bids

For the record if we play them again--I think ---we get-um this time

Because it’s based on the whole seasons body of work and not head to head. The only way it should matter is if all the advanced numbers were basically so close that it was a toss up. Which they aren’t anywhere near close.

(03-09-2022 09:44 PM)Fluke Wrote:  

(03-09-2022 09:41 PM)jsw3ent Wrote:  

(03-09-2022 09:22 PM)Tigerspartan Wrote:  

(03-09-2022 09:09 PM)jsw3ent Wrote:  

(03-09-2022 08:59 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  I don't understand how you are worried about making the tournament

and think we can get all the way to a 6 seed if we win 3 games.

Both cant be true...Unless you were playing Baylor and Kansas in 2 of those 3 games.

All of that said...I hope a 6 is possible...That is above what I think they will give us unless we absolutely destroy teams. Also I am not sure how much weight they will give the Houston game...They pretty much have the brackets set by that point.

WHEN/WHERE have I EVER said that I was afraid we were not going to make the tournament---even arter the 4 game losing streak ---when people were freaking out---I am on record saying PENNY would turn it around and that we would still make the tournament

If you are talking about the SMU discussion --you need to go reread what I said

I said if SMU beats us AGAIN--I dont think that we get in and they dont------I have stated at least 3-4 times in that/those threads that if SMU beats us AGAIN --that the AAC would probably get 3 bids

It’s a fluid situation. There are scenarios where the bubble gets really tight, the tigers and smu both last 4-6 teams in where being swept would be really problematic. Especially if they beat Houston in title game.

The bubble is loosening up with Xavier and wake losing, plus no bid thieves so far. I think there is still a scenario where we could lose to smu and wind up in Dayton. But we will be in.

Lose in quarters, we will be nervous. Some more than others.

I think you are right -----I also think if SMU beats us again---their seed is better than ours

If we are barely in ----and they are barely out---and they beat us 3 times--and they finish higher in the reg season---and they go farther in trny -----HOW HOW HOW could they justify letting us in and not SMU

If SMU beats us AGAIN --we better hope that the AAC gets 3 bids

For the record if we play them again--I think ---we get-um this time

Because it’s based on the whole seasons body of work and not head to head. The only way it should matter is if all the advanced numbers were basically so close that it was a toss up. Which they aren’t anywhere near close.

I guess they are close to the bubble--so apparently their body of work must not be too bad

Their whole seasons body of work --would also include--if they beat us again

-they finished ahead of us in the regular season

-they finished ahead of us in the trny

-they swept us 2-0 in reg season

-they swept us 1-0 in trny

-they swept us total 3-0

If we are barely in now---and they are barely out now---I don't know how they don't give a bid to SMU if they beat us again

.....again I think we get them next time anyway---but if not I will be sweating Sunday

I guess the question is ----is SMU barely out --are they close to getting in---last week they were on/off the bubble--either last 4 in --or last 4 out --I forget which

The other question is how FAR IN are we --last week we were like SMU on/off the bubble--last in last out

I will say this- if the shoe was on the other foot----and if MEMPHIS and SMU were as close to being in/out as it appears ----- and we beat them 3 times--and finished ahead of them in reg season and trny ---and they took SMU and not us----we would be raising holy hejj

If SMU makes it to the semi and Houston makes it to the final I would expect a 7 and hope for a 6.

I do remember going over these scenarios when we were in but unsure of seed in 12, 13 and 14

We analyzed, wondered if each win would move up a seed line etc.
And as it turned out not much of anything at this point meant squat…for us

In 12 we won the CUSA tourney and most thought winning it would move us up to a 5 or 6. We were an 8 or 9. We would have been 8/9 regardless

In 13 we won the CUSA tourney after going undefeated in conference. Had won something like 21/22 games. Analyzed the hell out of it and thought winning the tourney gets a 5/4 (team had over 30 wins) and we ended up a 6

In 14 we LOST the first game of the AAC tourney and ended up 8/9 anyway

Yes the regular seasons and early losses mattered and all that

But point is we give the committee too much credit. I think they heavily analyze the last few teams selected and the 1/2 seed lines. Beyond that, they don’t. So while other similar teams lose their first conference tourney games and say we don’t, we would think that would move us up

But I am not sure. Go 3-0 or 2-1 or even 1-1 and I think we get an 8/9

Only if we lose to UCF/USF will it matter because then the committee will have noticed the detail and we will be 11/12.

In a perfect sports world they would check EVERY single team and have possible seeds BEFORE they play their tourneys. Slot them now then do an entire re check Sunday morning. Think we would all be better off if tourneys ended Saturday

(03-09-2022 10:05 PM)jsw3ent Wrote:  I guess the question is ----is SMU barely out --are they close to getting in---last week they were on/off the bubble--either last 4 in --or last 4 out --I forget which

The other question is how FAR IN are we --last week we were like SMU on/off the bubble--last in last out

I will say this- if the shoe was on the other foot----and if MEMPHIS and SMU were as close to being in/out as it appears ----- and we beat them 3 times--and finished ahead of them in reg season and trny ---and they took SMU and not us----we would be raising holy hejj

Regardless of what any of the talking heads say I just don’t see our resumes as being close

Memphis 35 net 4-3 q1, 7-4, 3-2 no q4 loss. 28 kenpom. 41 ncsos

SMU 49 net 2-2, 3-3, 9-1, 1 q4 loss, 57 kp and a horrid 247 ncsos

(03-09-2022 10:23 PM)Fluke Wrote:  

(03-09-2022 10:05 PM)jsw3ent Wrote:  I guess the question is ----is SMU barely out --are they close to getting in---last week they were on/off the bubble--either last 4 in --or last 4 out --I forget which

The other question is how FAR IN are we --last week we were like SMU on/off the bubble--last in last out

I will say this- if the shoe was on the other foot----and if MEMPHIS and SMU were as close to being in/out as it appears ----- and we beat them 3 times--and finished ahead of them in reg season and trny ---and they took SMU and not us----we would be raising holy hejj

Regardless of what any of the talking heads say I just don’t see our resumes as being close

Memphis 35 net 4-3 q1, 7-4, 3-2 no q4 loss. 28 kenpom. 41 ncsos

SMU 49 net 2-2, 3-3, 9-1, 1 q4 loss, 57 kp and a horrid 247 ncsos

If those are current I see your point

If we are both Q1 wins for somebody

That would put them 3-3 Q1 if they beat us and then lose to Hou

Losing again to SMU would put us 4-4 Q1

...how much would another SMU win over us on a neutral court change both of our numbers ,,,our net /their net etc,,,.or am I looking at it wrong