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NCHC Standings and Pairwise...Start of March
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Doo Offline
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NCHC Standings and Pairwise...Start of March
Well that sucked.

What an awful weekend to be a WMU hockey fan.

Anyway here we go.

NCHC Standings....a few scenarios left that can play out but the picture has cleared up quite a bit.

8. Miami....still has chance to move up to 7th, will end up either traveling to Denver or NoDak.

7. CC....still has a chance to fall to 8th, will end up either traveling to Denver of NoDak.

6. Omaha....can still play it's way up to 5th...but that would require them to sweep NoDak, and have the SCSU/Duluth series not be a split. Odds are they ar 6th...and likely heading to Kzoo.

5/4. SCSU/Duluth. Both of these teams have the possibility of climbing to 3rd, but they need a sweep and a Miami sweep of WMU, Duluth could get a regular win and an OT appears and possibly do it. Odds are these teams split in some fashion and play eachother next week too. (Most likely at Duluth)

3. WMU needs to do just a little bit against Miami most likely to lock up 3rd. While playing SCSU is still a possibility, and mathematically possible to play Duluth, if you had to put your money down you should expect this to be Omaha.

2. Denver trails by 4 points, and losses the tiebreaker. Meaning they need 5 more points than NoDak this weekend....seems unlikely.

1. NoDak needs 2 points this weekend in some fashion (between wins or Denver losses) to wrap up the 1 seed.

Odds are the tournament is

1. NoDak v. 8. Miami
4. Duluth v. 5. SCSU
3. WMU v. 6. Omaha
2. Denver v. 7. CC

Keep in mind the tourney gets re-seeded after the first round. So WMU likely will play Denver in semi...if we get there. Also no 3rd place game this year.


Pairwise.

8. Miami....needs to win the tourney.
7. CC....needs to win the tourney.
6. Omaha....needs to win every game but the tourney title, or win the tourney.
5. SCSU.....likely is in a split this weekend, and getting a win in the tourney is probably enough...I'll guess 1 win will still do it.
4. Duluth...similar to boat to SCSU...I'd argue they need 2 wins though.
3. WMU....I believe we are already in...only way we are not is with 2-3 unexpected auto bids, and we lose the next 4 in a row. Safe to say we are in though outside of that.
2. Denver....locked in for sure. Probably already locked up a 3 seed. Will most likely get a 1 seed.
1. NoDak....I would put them in the same boat as us at this point.

WMU and the tourney....

As I said above I believe we are already in barring some crazy set of circumstances.
Last week I made a pretty strong case that we are looking at a 2 seed. I still believe that is our likely ending spot. Michigan/Minn St. and Denver will likely get 1 seeds. Leaving WMU, Minnesota, Notre Dame, and NoDak all in the hunt for the last spot. (Q has played it's way out of the hunt). To get a 1 seed we need to outperform the other 3 on that list to close. It's not impossible certainly...but it seems likely one of those teams out performs us. Now to fall to a three seed, would require the rest of that list to do well, and either Duluth or SCSU to go on a tear...probably getting at least to the conference championship game. UMASS winning out could do that as well. So it seems likely if we go say 4-2 to finish we are sitting at 5 or 6 in the pairwise and locking up a 2 seed.

If the tourney was today here is our region

1. Michigan v. 4. Lowell
2. WMU v. 3 UMASS
(This post was last modified: 02-28-2022 11:22 AM by Doo.)
02-28-2022 11:21 AM
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Broncodan Online
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RE: NCHC Standings and Pairwise...Start of March
Great stuff Doo.

Should be interesting to see where this team is at mentally this weekend vs Miami.

I feel like if we handle Miami easily, we will be ok, but if we struggle, I feel like this season is over regardless if we make the tournament.

Expectations for this team should no longer be just making the tournament.

I really hope frank and sasson return this week.
02-28-2022 12:36 PM
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ness180 Offline
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RE: NCHC Standings and Pairwise...Start of March
North Dakota fan here, I come in peace! Long time lurker that just wanted to say I always look forward to these write-ups that you provide. I know it's geared towards WMU but I enjoy reading the insights/info you include about the other NCHC teams. So just wanted to say thank you!
02-28-2022 05:32 PM
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Doo Offline
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RE: NCHC Standings and Pairwise...Start of March
Thanks….just an amateur doing amateur things.
02-28-2022 08:00 PM
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Broncodan Online
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RE: NCHC Standings and Pairwise...Start of March
How huge were the non-conference wins over Colgate and winning that game at Yost?

If we say split with Colgate and get swept by Michigan, I dont think we are in the position we are in now to basically be a "lock".
03-01-2022 11:24 AM
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Doo Offline
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RE: NCHC Standings and Pairwise...Start of March
(03-01-2022 11:24 AM)Broncodan Wrote:  How huge were the non-conference wins over Colgate and winning that game at Yost?

If we say split with Colgate and get swept by Michigan, I dont think we are in the position we are in now to basically be a "lock".

If that scenario had occurred we'd be in a similar scenario to Duluth or SCSU likely needing 1-2 wins still to get in. We'd likely still need to win the series this week to get...that's what it did for us. A 1 seed would likely be off the table now....where now we still have a 3 to 1 shot at it.
(This post was last modified: 03-01-2022 12:59 PM by Doo.)
03-01-2022 12:58 PM
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Broncodan Online
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RE: NCHC Standings and Pairwise...Start of March
(03-01-2022 12:58 PM)Doo Wrote:  
(03-01-2022 11:24 AM)Broncodan Wrote:  How huge were the non-conference wins over Colgate and winning that game at Yost?

If we say split with Colgate and get swept by Michigan, I dont think we are in the position we are in now to basically be a "lock".

If that scenario had occurred we'd be in a similar scenario to Duluth or SCSU likely needing 1-2 wins still to get in. We'd likely still need to win the series this week to get...that's what it did for us. A 1 seed would likely be off the table now....where now we still have a 3 to 1 shot at it.

I would assume we would need to win out and get help to get a #1. I think this team will be a 2-3 seed which really wont matter as much as the difference between a 1 and 4 seed.
03-01-2022 01:56 PM
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Doo Offline
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RE: NCHC Standings and Pairwise...Start of March
(03-01-2022 01:56 PM)Broncodan Wrote:  
(03-01-2022 12:58 PM)Doo Wrote:  
(03-01-2022 11:24 AM)Broncodan Wrote:  How huge were the non-conference wins over Colgate and winning that game at Yost?

If we say split with Colgate and get swept by Michigan, I dont think we are in the position we are in now to basically be a "lock".

If that scenario had occurred we'd be in a similar scenario to Duluth or SCSU likely needing 1-2 wins still to get in. We'd likely still need to win the series this week to get...that's what it did for us. A 1 seed would likely be off the table now....where now we still have a 3 to 1 shot at it.
Two seed is the most likely, a tank job could send us to 3 land.

To get a one seed we would likely need make the NCHC champ game, and have NoDak not get there. Anything less than that is probably not a recipe for a 1 seed.
I would assume we would need to win out and get help to get a #1. I think this team will be a 2-3 seed which really wont matter as much as the difference between a 1 and 4 seed.
03-01-2022 02:30 PM
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Doo Offline
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RE: NCHC Standings and Pairwise...Start of March
Northeastern doing their best to knock themselves out....lost to Vermont. NE is a bubble team that might've just popped their bubble outside of winning an auto bid. Again barring a crazy scenario (a bunch of auto bid upsents) I think WMU is already in, but this just made it even more likely. I don't see anyway we lose out and fall behind NE now.
03-03-2022 11:35 AM
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RE: NCHC Standings and Pairwise...Start of March
(03-03-2022 11:35 AM)Doo Wrote:  Northeastern doing their best to knock themselves out....lost to Vermont. NE is a bubble team that might've just popped their bubble outside of winning an auto bid. Again barring a crazy scenario (a bunch of auto bid upsents) I think WMU is already in, but this just made it even more likely. I don't see anyway we lose out and fall behind NE now.

I think we are good. The team has known about this Washe thing from the beginning. they have not faltered, even with his brother on the team. Yes, this is a Very sad situation, but it is time to move on with their own lives................
03-03-2022 02:24 PM
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Broncodan Online
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RE: NCHC Standings and Pairwise...Start of March
(03-03-2022 02:24 PM)Bronco88Oxford Wrote:  
(03-03-2022 11:35 AM)Doo Wrote:  Northeastern doing their best to knock themselves out....lost to Vermont. NE is a bubble team that might've just popped their bubble outside of winning an auto bid. Again barring a crazy scenario (a bunch of auto bid upsents) I think WMU is already in, but this just made it even more likely. I don't see anyway we lose out and fall behind NE now.

I think we are good. The team has known about this Washe thing from the beginning. they have not faltered, even with his brother on the team. Yes, this is a Very sad situation, but it is time to move on with their own lives................

Not faltered? We should have at least came away with a split last weekend in GF, ND was missing some key players and yet we still got swept. We are 6-5-1 since Washe left, which isnt that good.

I really hope that this team comes to play on senior weekend this weekend and we have some momentum going into the playoffs.

We will have a battle on our hands vs. most likely Omaha who will have nothing to lose against us.
03-03-2022 02:54 PM
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BroncoMinor Offline
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RE: NCHC Standings and Pairwise...Start of March
(03-03-2022 02:54 PM)Broncodan Wrote:  
(03-03-2022 02:24 PM)Bronco88Oxford Wrote:  
(03-03-2022 11:35 AM)Doo Wrote:  Northeastern doing their best to knock themselves out....lost to Vermont. NE is a bubble team that might've just popped their bubble outside of winning an auto bid. Again barring a crazy scenario (a bunch of auto bid upsents) I think WMU is already in, but this just made it even more likely. I don't see anyway we lose out and fall behind NE now.

I think we are good. The team has known about this Washe thing from the beginning. they have not faltered, even with his brother on the team. Yes, this is a Very sad situation, but it is time to move on with their own lives................

Not faltered? We should have at least came away with a split last weekend in GF, ND was missing some key players and yet we still got swept. We are 6-5-1 since Washe left, which isnt that good.

I really hope that this team comes to play on senior weekend this weekend and we have some momentum going into the playoffs.

We will have a battle on our hands vs. most likely Omaha who will have nothing to lose against us.
We played NoDak, @UMD, @CC, @SCSU, Denver, & @NoDak w/o Washe. That was going to be a tough stretch w/ or w/o Washe.
(This post was last modified: 03-03-2022 03:07 PM by BroncoMinor.)
03-03-2022 03:07 PM
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Section4 Offline
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RE: NCHC Standings and Pairwise...Start of March
(03-03-2022 02:54 PM)Broncodan Wrote:  
(03-03-2022 02:24 PM)Bronco88Oxford Wrote:  
(03-03-2022 11:35 AM)Doo Wrote:  Northeastern doing their best to knock themselves out....lost to Vermont. NE is a bubble team that might've just popped their bubble outside of winning an auto bid. Again barring a crazy scenario (a bunch of auto bid upsents) I think WMU is already in, but this just made it even more likely. I don't see anyway we lose out and fall behind NE now.

I think we are good. The team has known about this Washe thing from the beginning. they have not faltered, even with his brother on the team. Yes, this is a Very sad situation, but it is time to move on with their own lives................

Not faltered? We should have at least came away with a split last weekend in GF, ND was missing some key players and yet we still got swept. We are 6-5-1 since Washe left, which isnt that good.

I really hope that this team comes to play on senior weekend this weekend and we have some momentum going into the playoffs.

We will have a battle on our hands vs. most likely Omaha who will have nothing to lose against us.

Friday at NoDak was a killer. We totally outplayed them in the 2nd and third and could not score. Very frustrating.....during the PP in the 3rd we had the puck in their zone for 1:34 straight with 5 shots on net. Given that, Driscoll was playing outa his head. I knew Saturday night would be tougher with it being senior night.

Let's get our scoring touch going and blow out Miami.
03-03-2022 03:35 PM
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RE: NCHC Standings and Pairwise...Start of March
(03-03-2022 02:54 PM)Broncodan Wrote:  
(03-03-2022 02:24 PM)Bronco88Oxford Wrote:  
(03-03-2022 11:35 AM)Doo Wrote:  Northeastern doing their best to knock themselves out....lost to Vermont. NE is a bubble team that might've just popped their bubble outside of winning an auto bid. Again barring a crazy scenario (a bunch of auto bid upsents) I think WMU is already in, but this just made it even more likely. I don't see anyway we lose out and fall behind NE now.

I think we are good. The team has known about this Washe thing from the beginning. they have not faltered, even with his brother on the team. Yes, this is a Very sad situation, but it is time to move on with their own lives................

Not faltered? We should have at least came away with a split last weekend in GF, ND was missing some key players and yet we still got swept. We are 6-5-1 since Washe left, which isnt that good.

I really hope that this team comes to play on senior weekend this weekend and we have some momentum going into the playoffs.

We will have a battle on our hands vs. most likely Omaha who will have nothing to lose against us.

Agreed, we probably should have won 1 or 2 more games in that stretch. "New" season starts tonight.
03-04-2022 01:48 PM
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Broncodan Online
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RE: NCHC Standings and Pairwise...Start of March
Probably good to root against Notre dame today and Ohio state? Specifically Notre dame to give us more pairwise breathing room.
03-06-2022 12:59 PM
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WesternDave Offline
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RE: NCHC Standings and Pairwise...Start of March
(03-06-2022 12:59 PM)Broncodan Wrote:  Probably good to root against Notre dame today and Ohio state? Specifically Notre dame to give us more pairwise breathing room.

I'll root for the refs. 03-lmfao
03-06-2022 01:04 PM
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Section4 Offline
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RE: NCHC Standings and Pairwise...Start of March
For those of you good with running scenarios in Pairwise.............if we sweep UNO and win both at the Frozen Faceoff...............would we be a #1 seed?

Could one win in St. Paul do it? I know this might also depend on other games.
(This post was last modified: 03-06-2022 02:53 PM by Section4.)
03-06-2022 02:52 PM
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RE: NCHC Standings and Pairwise...Start of March
(03-06-2022 02:52 PM)Section4 Wrote:  For those of you good with running scenarios in Pairwise.............if we sweep UNO and win both at the Frozen Faceoff...............would we be a #1 seed?

Could one win in St. Paul do it? I know this might also depend on other games.
It depends on what Denver & Minnesota do. If they have early exists, 2 wins over Omaha & a win over NoDak might get it done. But, if Denver @ Minnesota reach their conference finals, gotta win it all.
03-06-2022 03:48 PM
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Section4 Offline
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RE: NCHC Standings and Pairwise...Start of March
(03-06-2022 03:48 PM)BroncoMinor Wrote:  
(03-06-2022 02:52 PM)Section4 Wrote:  For those of you good with running scenarios in Pairwise.............if we sweep UNO and win both at the Frozen Faceoff...............would we be a #1 seed?

Could one win in St. Paul do it? I know this might also depend on other games.
It depends on what Denver & Minnesota do. If they have early exists, 2 wins over Omaha & a win over NoDak might get it done. But, if Denver @ Minnesota reach their conference finals, gotta win it all.

Makes sense. Take care of business with Omaha and a #2 seed is locked up. To earn a #1 seed - two wins in St. Paul. And I agree with some of the others, I would prefer NoDak to Denver in the first round. Would be nice to see an upset but I don't see CC or Miami pulling it off. St. Cloud or Duluth? - flip a coin.
03-06-2022 05:19 PM
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