(02-28-2022 11:30 AM)umbluegray Wrote:  

(02-28-2022 10:54 AM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote:  I didnt read the whole thread... but I find it hard to believe, that the country with the second biggest army is having trouble with a country thats using decommissioned airplanes to fight this war. I believe there is something more at play that we are not seeing and Putin is using his "Art of War"

I saw an article within the past week which mentioned that Russian military assets have been greatly overreported.

What we're seeing now is that the Russian military has a very poor grasp on the strategy of logistics and that several of their manufacturing facilities are not able to resupply assets.

Kind of makes you wonder a couple of things:

1. Given that communist countries engage heavily in propaganda, could it be possible that China isn't as -- uh -- endowed as they have led the West to believe?
2. How bad is U.S. and Western intelligence to be duped like that?

Not the first time our intelligence has been duped...

(02-28-2022 11:44 AM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote:  

(02-28-2022 11:30 AM)umbluegray Wrote:  

(02-28-2022 10:54 AM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote:  I didnt read the whole thread... but I find it hard to believe, that the country with the second biggest army is having trouble with a country thats using decommissioned airplanes to fight this war. I believe there is something more at play that we are not seeing and Putin is using his "Art of War"

I saw an article within the past week which mentioned that Russian military assets have been greatly overreported.

What we're seeing now is that the Russian military has a very poor grasp on the strategy of logistics and that several of their manufacturing facilities are not able to resupply assets.

Kind of makes you wonder a couple of things:

1. Given that communist countries engage heavily in propaganda, could it be possible that China isn't as -- uh -- endowed as they have led the West to believe?
2. How bad is U.S. and Western intelligence to be duped like that?

Not the first time our intelligence has been duped...

1) China, like Russia, has a small core of effective cutting-edge weapons which they show off in parades, and a lot of really old and out of date junk they hope will be useful against soft targets. Say what you will about our Military-Industrial complex but it means we usually never have anything less than the top two generations of equipment with our front line forces and some of the best equipped reserves in the world. It's expensive as all get out, but it seems to be worth it.

2) You are assuming they were "duped" and that they weren't trying to dupe their own people (aka us) instead.

(02-28-2022 11:30 AM)umbluegray Wrote:  

(02-28-2022 10:54 AM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote:  I didnt read the whole thread... but I find it hard to believe, that the country with the second biggest army is having trouble with a country thats using decommissioned airplanes to fight this war. I believe there is something more at play that we are not seeing and Putin is using his "Art of War"

I saw an article within the past week which mentioned that Russian military assets have been greatly overreported.

What we're seeing now is that the Russian military has a very poor grasp on the strategy of logistics and that several of their manufacturing facilities are not able to resupply assets.

Kind of makes you wonder a couple of things:

1. Given that communist countries engage heavily in propaganda, could it be possible that China isn't as -- uh -- endowed as they have led the West to believe?
2. How bad is U.S. and Western intelligence to be duped like that?

Interesting points. I do think Russia hasn't faced a military operation on this scale since WW2, and it's showing. Ukraine isn't Georgia. China's PLA is even less battle-tested than the Russians, so I think it is likely that we are prone to overestimate their capabilities, in part due to the sheer size of the PLA. Some of our military experts will know better, but I would guess that the PLA is better supplied with modern weaponry than the Russian military?

People think we are overestimating Russia and China military? Who? How so? The people that want us to think they are strong adversaries are the people selling weapons and the politicians who are profiting from their lobbying. The US spends about 10 times more than China or Russia officially, and probably 20 times when it comes to what the taxpayers get billed (bilked) for.

Nobody is dumb enough to think that countries spending a tiny fraction of what we spend are comparable, except the people selling the weapons and selling fear.

(02-28-2022 12:10 PM)49RFootballNow Wrote:  

(02-28-2022 11:44 AM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote:  

(02-28-2022 11:30 AM)umbluegray Wrote:  

(02-28-2022 10:54 AM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote:  I didnt read the whole thread... but I find it hard to believe, that the country with the second biggest army is having trouble with a country thats using decommissioned airplanes to fight this war. I believe there is something more at play that we are not seeing and Putin is using his "Art of War"

I saw an article within the past week which mentioned that Russian military assets have been greatly overreported.

What we're seeing now is that the Russian military has a very poor grasp on the strategy of logistics and that several of their manufacturing facilities are not able to resupply assets.

Kind of makes you wonder a couple of things:

1. Given that communist countries engage heavily in propaganda, could it be possible that China isn't as -- uh -- endowed as they have led the West to believe?
2. How bad is U.S. and Western intelligence to be duped like that?

Not the first time our intelligence has been duped...

1) China, like Russia, has a small core of effective cutting-edge weapons which they show off in parades, and a lot of really old and out of date junk they hope will be useful against soft targets. Say what you will about our Military-Industrial complex but it means we usually never have anything less than the top two generations of equipment with our front line forces and some of the best equipped reserves in the world. It's expensive as all get out, but it seems to be worth it.

2) You are assuming they were "duped" and that they weren't trying to dupe their own people (aka us) instead.

Very valid point. Dupe us in order to continue spending on military tech.

Which, btw, I'm OK with given that defense is the primary purpose of our government.

I may not like all the cronyism, but I like the results.

Ukraine has applied for EU membership. My guess this will escalate things quickly if accepted.

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(02-28-2022 12:27 PM)umbluegray Wrote:  

(02-28-2022 12:10 PM)49RFootballNow Wrote:  

(02-28-2022 11:44 AM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote:  

(02-28-2022 11:30 AM)umbluegray Wrote:  

(02-28-2022 10:54 AM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote:  I didnt read the whole thread... but I find it hard to believe, that the country with the second biggest army is having trouble with a country thats using decommissioned airplanes to fight this war. I believe there is something more at play that we are not seeing and Putin is using his "Art of War"

I saw an article within the past week which mentioned that Russian military assets have been greatly overreported.

What we're seeing now is that the Russian military has a very poor grasp on the strategy of logistics and that several of their manufacturing facilities are not able to resupply assets.

Kind of makes you wonder a couple of things:

1. Given that communist countries engage heavily in propaganda, could it be possible that China isn't as -- uh -- endowed as they have led the West to believe?
2. How bad is U.S. and Western intelligence to be duped like that?

Not the first time our intelligence has been duped...

1) China, like Russia, has a small core of effective cutting-edge weapons which they show off in parades, and a lot of really old and out of date junk they hope will be useful against soft targets. Say what you will about our Military-Industrial complex but it means we usually never have anything less than the top two generations of equipment with our front line forces and some of the best equipped reserves in the world. It's expensive as all get out, but it seems to be worth it.

2) You are assuming they were "duped" and that they weren't trying to dupe their own people (aka us) instead.

Very valid point. Dupe us in order to continue spending on military tech.

Which, btw, I'm OK with given that defense is the primary purpose of our government.

I may not like all the cronyism, but I like the results.

The Constitution gives the FedGov power over common defense, common foreign policy, interstate trade and infrastructure, and interstate disputes.

The FedGov has used those last two items to justify taking money out of our paychecks and various and sundry other things that the Founders would be shocked to learn of.

(02-28-2022 11:27 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-28-2022 11:05 AM)49RFootballNow Wrote:  

(02-28-2022 10:54 AM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote:  I didnt read the whole thread... but I find it hard to believe, that the country with the second biggest army is having trouble with a country thats using decommissioned airplanes to fight this war. I believe there is something more at play that we are not seeing and Putin is using his "Art of War"

Like everyone else I have no real idea what's happening on the ground in Ukraine, but it certainly seems that either the Russians are intentionally dragging this out or the Javelin is the most awesome anti-vehicle weapons system of all time.

Clearly Putin doesn't want to fully commit all his forces or maybe even the best of his forces to achieve his objectives here, but an army is only good as it's training, equipment, supply chain, leadership and morale.

I suspect that at least with the forces the Russians are using here, at least one if not multiple of these five variables seems to be lacking.

The most surprising thing to me is the relatively light use of air power by Russia. I can only assume that the Russians believe the risk of losing aircraft is still too high--otherwise the lack of air power use seems odd.

This stems from something else in my opinion, Putin's strategy through the past year of escalation was built completely around intimidation.

His end game militarily (if it came to it) was to destroy the Ukrainian military complex and force/overthrow the government without too much collateral damage and time required.

Because his military build up didn't get what he wanted he rolled the dice on actually going in figuring Ukraine would surrender before the sanctions could even come into play.

Russia can stop shelling and sign a cease fire but the disinvestment of the west will take years to repair. NATO is still pumping up Ukraine's military.

One thing Ukraine has proved is they don't need to be in NATO to be practically supported like they are a member. They can live with neutrality.

(02-28-2022 12:27 PM)Todor Wrote:  People think we are overestimating Russia and China military? Who? How so? The only people that want us to think they are strong adversaries are the people selling weapons and the politicians who are profiting from their lobbying. The US spends about 10 times more than China or Russia officially, and probably 20 times when it comes to what the taxpayers get billed (bilked) for.

Nobody is dumb enough to think that countries spending a tiny fraction of what we spend are comparable, except the people selling the weapons and selling fear.

Don't forget the readiness/experience advantage also.

Personally if Russia fails in Ukraine, Ukraine will be a NATO member.

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(02-28-2022 12:35 PM)hburg Wrote:  Personally if Russia fails in Ukraine, Ukraine will be a NATO member.

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Ukraine just applied formaly for membership in the EU according to Rueters

(02-28-2022 12:39 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

(02-28-2022 12:35 PM)hburg Wrote:  Personally if Russia fails in Ukraine, Ukraine will be a NATO member.

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Ukraine just applied formslly for membership in the EU according to Rueters

In for a penny, in for a pound?

I doubt the EU is going to ratify that very quickly.

The Lisbon Treaty doesn't exactly mean that the rest of the EU has to come to your defense, but they could, if they want.

I don't see the EU jumping at this opportunity for Putin to declare war on Europe.

Zelensky has apparently asked President Biden and NATO to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine. I'm not sure that would be wise, but to the point Attackcoog made several days ago I think it could be very useful for the West to publicly mull this request. I'm hoping perhaps the President will put it specifically on the table in the SOTU tomorrow night, could be very useful in negotiations for Putin to have to account for the strategic ambiguity that this could happen. To be clear, I'm not advocating a "red line" be drawn, but a vague statement that a no-fly zone is being actively considered and may be imposed at some point.

https://www.axios.com/ukraine-no-fly-zon...bf948.html

(02-28-2022 12:40 PM)49RFootballNow Wrote:  

(02-28-2022 12:39 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

(02-28-2022 12:35 PM)hburg Wrote:  Personally if Russia fails in Ukraine, Ukraine will be a NATO member.

Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk

Ukraine just applied formslly for membership in the EU according to Rueters

In for a penny, in for a pound?

I doubt the EU is going to ratify that very quickly.

Putin invaded because Ukraine flirted with Nato. How do you think joining the EU will go over

(02-28-2022 12:40 PM)49RFootballNow Wrote:  

(02-28-2022 12:39 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

(02-28-2022 12:35 PM)hburg Wrote:  Personally if Russia fails in Ukraine, Ukraine will be a NATO member.

Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk

Ukraine just applied formslly for membership in the EU according to Rueters

In for a penny, in for a pound?

I doubt the EU is going to ratify that very quickly.

The Lisbon Treaty doesn't exactly mean that the rest of the EU has to come to your defense, but they could, if they want.

I don't see the EU jumping at this opportunity for Putin to declare war on Europe.

I thik you're right, but I suspect Ukraine will get official candidacy at the next EU summit. Zelensky has played this well to jump way ahead of where Ukraine would be on the path to EU membership without the Russian invasion. If he survives the war he might indeed be the President to preside over Ukraine joining the EU, someday.

(02-28-2022 12:46 PM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(02-28-2022 12:40 PM)49RFootballNow Wrote:  

(02-28-2022 12:39 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

(02-28-2022 12:35 PM)hburg Wrote:  Personally if Russia fails in Ukraine, Ukraine will be a NATO member.

Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk

Ukraine just applied formslly for membership in the EU according to Rueters

In for a penny, in for a pound?

I doubt the EU is going to ratify that very quickly.

The Lisbon Treaty doesn't exactly mean that the rest of the EU has to come to your defense, but they could, if they want.

I don't see the EU jumping at this opportunity for Putin to declare war on Europe.

I thik you're right, but I suspect Ukraine will get official candidacy at the next EU summit. Zelensky has played this well to jump way ahead of where Ukraine would be on the path to EU membership without the Russian invasion. If he survives the war he might indeed be the President to preside over Ukraine joining the EU, someday.

Lets see if Russia goes "in for a penny in for a pound".
Zelensky appears reckless and arrogant

(02-28-2022 12:45 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

(02-28-2022 12:40 PM)49RFootballNow Wrote:  

(02-28-2022 12:39 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

(02-28-2022 12:35 PM)hburg Wrote:  Personally if Russia fails in Ukraine, Ukraine will be a NATO member.

Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk

Ukraine just applied formslly for membership in the EU according to Rueters

In for a penny, in for a pound?

I doubt the EU is going to ratify that very quickly.

Putin invaded because Ukraine flirted with Nato. How do you think joining the EU will go over

He won't like it, but it isn't the military threat that NATO is. Just look at Putin's comments about Sweden & Finland considering joining NATO, whereas they are both EU members and have been for years without that upsetting him to the same degree.

(02-28-2022 12:48 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

(02-28-2022 12:46 PM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(02-28-2022 12:40 PM)49RFootballNow Wrote:  

(02-28-2022 12:39 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

(02-28-2022 12:35 PM)hburg Wrote:  Personally if Russia fails in Ukraine, Ukraine will be a NATO member.

Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk

Ukraine just applied formslly for membership in the EU according to Rueters

In for a penny, in for a pound?

I doubt the EU is going to ratify that very quickly.

The Lisbon Treaty doesn't exactly mean that the rest of the EU has to come to your defense, but they could, if they want.

I don't see the EU jumping at this opportunity for Putin to declare war on Europe.

I thik you're right, but I suspect Ukraine will get official candidacy at the next EU summit. Zelensky has played this well to jump way ahead of where Ukraine would be on the path to EU membership without the Russian invasion. If he survives the war he might indeed be the President to preside over Ukraine joining the EU, someday.

Lets see if Russia goes "in for a penny in for a pound".
Zelensky appears reckless and arrogant

Dude is trying to save his nation from a powerful neighbor who is trying to end it. Guess you'd call Edvard Benes reckless and arrogant too back in '38?

(02-28-2022 12:43 PM)Gamenole Wrote:  Zelensky has apparently asked President Biden and NATO to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine. I'm not sure that would be wise, but to the point Attackcoog made several days ago I think it could be very useful for the West to publicly mull this request. I'm hoping perhaps the President will put it specifically on the table in the SOTU tomorrow night, could be very useful in negotiations for Putin to have to account for the strategic ambiguity that this could happen. To be clear, I'm not advocating a "red line" be drawn, but a vague statement that a no-fly zone is being actively considered and may be imposed at some point.

https://www.axios.com/ukraine-no-fly-zon...bf948.html

Exactly WHO would be enforcing a 'no fly' zone? No way should it be considered because it would expand this war and draw us in.

Given the fools that we have 'leading' this country I could see them saying it is being considered, which is almost as provocative.

(02-28-2022 12:58 PM)MileHighBronco Wrote:  

(02-28-2022 12:43 PM)Gamenole Wrote:  Zelensky has apparently asked President Biden and NATO to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine. I'm not sure that would be wise, but to the point Attackcoog made several days ago I think it could be very useful for the West to publicly mull this request. I'm hoping perhaps the President will put it specifically on the table in the SOTU tomorrow night, could be very useful in negotiations for Putin to have to account for the strategic ambiguity that this could happen. To be clear, I'm not advocating a "red line" be drawn, but a vague statement that a no-fly zone is being actively considered and may be imposed at some point.

https://www.axios.com/ukraine-no-fly-zon...bf948.html

Exactly WHO would be enforcing a 'no fly' zone? No way should it be considered because it would expand this war and draw us in.

Given the fools that we have 'leading' this country I could see them saying it is being considered, which is almost as provocative.

Now politicians change their minds with the wind, but the White House has already said under no circumstance would US planes be used to enforce a no fly zone in Ukraine.