With all of the conference reshuffling in the wake of UT & OU moving to the SEC, the balance in each conference will be adjusted - and the conference (FBS) structure itself will be adjusted in the process.

Here is my read on who will rise to the top in these structures.

Winners:

AAC: East Carolina.
With Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF moving to the Big 12, and ECU getting an in-state partner, I fully expect Mike Houston to make ECU the dominant program in the AAC East (if there are still divisions).
The ECU fanbase is at an ACC level and UC/UCF were always blocking their way to feeding that rabid fanbase. Using the transfer portal, it's not out of the question that ECU will be the best team in the Carolinas in this tight, regional, AAC footprint.

SEC: Alabama
The rich get richer. By OU and UT joining the SEC (becoming an in-conference competitor instead of a cross-conference foe), Alabama has 2 less distractions at the front of the Top 25.

Big 12: Texas teams (TT/UH/BU/TCU) & Oklahoma State
Due to the logjam OU & UT face in their new division, the Big 12 Texas teams and Oklahoma State will benefit as the best options in their fertile-recruiting region for Top 25 supremacy. The SEC may face some of the same stagnation problems that befell the ACC when they added so many Northeast basketball schools. Those new schools have underperformed in the ACC and dragged down the incumbents.

ACC/Big 10/Pac 12: Duke, Syracuse, Washington State, Oregon State, etc
By entering into an "Alliance" with no perceivable purpose, there is more comity among these 3 conferences nonetheless. Thus, the least attractive members of the Pac 12 and ACC are "the biggest winners" because the chief benefit is the Big 10 will not raid them for the time being.

MWC: UTEP & New Mexico State
Even though they aren't members of the MWC (yet), both UTEP and NMSU now "got next" for MWC membership (among FBS options). When Aresco went with the three team Texas expansion, he effectively blocked the MWC (most notably CSU & AFA) from going deep into Texas. This is a potential game-changer for UTEP, who has openly expressed a desire for a Western conference.

Sunbelt: App State
Another case of the rich getting richer. App State has been the bellcow of the SBC and building up a SBC East Division around them (which includes a desirable rival in Marshall) is BIG for them. Football in North Carolina got a serious boost from this realignment, most notably on the G5 level.

Conference USA: LIBERTY
CUSA is going to be better off than expected (especially in basketball) but make no mistake Liberty is going to reap the biggest rewards. CUSA geography actually works very well for Liberty's objectives. Maintaining a presence in Florida and Texas (with the significantly smaller - and more manageable - conference size) is very appealing. Liberty is the Beetlejuice of this conference realignment. They can become the Boise State of the WAC years.

MAC: UMass
The MAC's decision NOT to expand has actually given UMass hope. UMass knows its future as a viable all-sports entity hinges on being in a conference. With the CFP 12 on the horizon, "Independence" is an even worse option than it was previously. MAC basketball has taken a good step forward since UMass sidestepped joining in All-Sports. If the MAC ever decides to revisit WKU, then UMass may back into an invite they can't refuse.

Another swing and a miss. Of those schools, only Alabama, arguably Liberty/NMSU, and perhaps marginally App State have actually had their situations improved. The rest are same or worse.

(02-16-2022 05:03 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  Liberty is the Beetlejuice of this conference realignment. They can become the Boise State of the WAC years.

Lol I doubt the late Reverend Doctor Falwell would like it, but I love the idea of Liberty as Beetlejuice! I agree with you they're a realignment winner, and if all goes just right they could be poised for a Boise like run.

Oh BigHomie, nice troll job. Your obsession with small town schools in North Carolina like ECU and Appy St always entertains me. That’s how I know it’s you my friend. Keep up the good work!

(02-16-2022 11:14 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  Oh BigHomie, nice troll job. Your obsession with small town schools in North Carolina like ECU and Appy St always entertains me. That’s how I know it’s you my friend. Keep up the good work!

I’m old enough to remember when he was a BC fan. And before that a UCF/Houston/Temple fan. Given that two of the three have moved on and up, he’s either a brilliant troll or just a temple fan.

I always thought he was a Houston or UCF fan with leanings towards UMASS as well…now I agree with you In part: He’s a Temple or USF fan. Obviously there’s some AAC left behind school he’s rooting for.

(02-17-2022 12:36 AM)VCE Wrote:  

(02-16-2022 11:14 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  Oh BigHomie, nice troll job. Your obsession with small town schools in North Carolina like ECU and Appy St always entertains me. That’s how I know it’s you my friend. Keep up the good work!

I’m old enough to remember when he was a BC fan. And before that a UCF/Houston/Temple fan. Given that two of the three have moved on and up, he’s either a brilliant troll or just a temple fan.

BC fan? I don’t think so. Maybe UMASS

...I think the "UTEP/NMSU to the MWC" take is a feasible one, especially if WKU and/or MTSU (or perhaps LaTech?) bail out for another conference (most likely SBC, but still might have something happening with the MAC)... Mainly, because the MWC will need some 'backfill' if Boise and perhaps a few more end up in the BIG XII, as the general consensus has been for awhile concerning BIG XII expansion 'post-UT/OU'...

I'm thinking that the big winners are the Sun Belt and the AAC schools going to the Big 12. The Sun Belt proved it's not the bottom conference in FBS at this point in time. I'm wondering if that's going to be enough to get better recruiting. It's hard to judge the new version of C-USA because it's not fully formed yet at 9 schools. A point can be made that while the MAC is stable it took a small prestige hit that the AAC didn't seem to value any of it's members even look at expansion. The Mountain West won as they now have more leverage over Boise State then they did when Boise State was looking into the AAC for football.