(06-16-2022 07:42 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote: (06-16-2022 07:19 AM)ESE84 Wrote: Interesting read from the Houston Chronicle on the official Rice move, starting with it is written by Joe Duarte who is usually writing about the Cougars. Full distributions for new members in two years? Plans (finally!) for the football stadium in September?
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/texas-s...244025.php
I have heard that they were trying to get the new members up to equal shares before the end of the contract.
My only guess(and it's a complete guess) is that $7m was the average rate the original schools were getting over the life of the contract, with an escalation model that probably started at something like 4m and ended at 10m(again totally back of the napkin). If the AAC teams started at 4m, and are now at 5m, then all the escalation is still ahead of them. I think the conference could potentially lock the AAC teams in at a flat 7m, then allocate what would be their future escalations to the CUSA teams to eventually make them whole.
And yes, if that (again COMPLETE guess) math is what's happening, then we're all getting a haircut without saying we're getting a haircut(would be making 10m at the end of the contract, but holding at 7m all the way through).
Also possible that exit fees will be used to pad some of this, even though Aresco said the other day that they might help with CUSA teams' exit fees. That should grind some gears.
I have not heard that this is under specific consideration (I'm not an "insider" in any way).
But I HAVE looked at these numbers, here on this board.
ONE guess at a 5% escalation came from a Forbes reporter.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian...9412267dc9
He had a table out to '24-'25, which I then carried out to full extent of a 12-year $1 BILLION deal:
20-21 $63M
21-22 $66M
22-23 $69M
23-24 $72M
24-25 $76M
25-26 $80
26-27 $84
27-28 $88
28-29 $93
20-30 $97
30-31 $102
31-32 $107
First note -- we're already inaccurate, ha ha ha. Most will recall that the recently released '20-'21 media revenue was $52.16, so we're missing $10 million (or as I like to call it "one Sun Belt"). Potential discrepancy could be a small UConn decrement, decreased inventory provided in COVID impacted 2020 football season (as well as other Olympics), early "payback" of the 2019-20 year $20 million "signing bonus" rather than spreading that over all 12 years. Maybe it is a larger escalator than 5% meaning smaller at start, bigger at back end. 2021-2022 numbers may reveal more, but let's just press on with this experiment.
Let's start with the IRS-level-real $52.16 million "Full shares" were $4.74 million (counting Navy and Wichita as one "full share" for the media $, if not for the CFP vs NCAA MBB tourney credits), which would make newbie "half shares" $2.37 million. That equates to Pete Thamel's reporting.
Finishing at $107 million would make "full shares" $9.72 million and "half shares" $4.86 million
That's still good for everyone, with the AAC newbies making more off of primary media rights than legacy mwc teams (other than Boise) over the current mwc deal. But it's a bigger gap between old and new than at the beginning.
Look at that finish divided evenly though: $7.64 million dollars for each of 14 teams. Hmmm...
One has to assume there is nothing magical or at least psychological about the $7 million average over 12 years...obtw, $1B divided by 12 years divided by 12 teams was $6.94 million average at the outset 3 years ago, anyway...
If we target equity at $7.64 million at the finish line...a 1/11th "full share" gets there halfway through, with the 2026-27 $84 million. (Passes the common sense check for a linear progression and how a mathematical mean works.) Freeze there for the legacy, push all the escalator increases to the newer six and you can get there.
Using the numbers from Ozanian's Forbes article, then extrapolated, that average for the eight legacy teams is still $6.9 million per year WITH getting to equity. The six new teams should average around $5 million per year over the contract.
(If I assume Ozanian's numbers need to come down if there were a REAL decrement after UConn's departure, I still get a $6.5 million aav for eight legacy teams and $4.5 million aav for the six new teams. Hmmm, in that case, each of the eight lose $4.8 million total over the deal, as the price for losing UC, UH, and UCF to the Big12. And each gets $6.75 million as 1/8th of exit fees.)
Maybe that 2031-32 equity isn't the goal. Maybe a freeze for six years is not palatable to the eight legacy members. If so, the WORST case for the new members is a $3.5 million aav, moving from $2.37 million to $4.86 million.
edited to add: I continued playing with the numbers.
Taking out a full 1/12th of the original total deal for UConn, with the same 5% escalator, the discrepancy between the actual 20-21 media revenue and the predicted 20-21 million is just under $1.47 million - possibly the signing bonus payback? Well, that comes short of the $20 million signing bonus applied evenly each year, and above the $20 million assigning a 5% escalator to that. Even trying to backfit to find a smaller UConn decrement that creates a '20-'21 discrepancy which accounts for the signing bonus over 12 years (either even payback amounts or payback with escalator) would then be off because the declared media revenue isn't JUST the primary media rights deal: Navy tier, CBS for handful of basketball games, ESPN radio and maybe other nickels and dimes.
If we want to go worst case - we lost a full 1/12th with UConn's departure, and the larger payback each year:
2023-24 total is $64.97 million. Full share = $5.91million and half share = $2.95 million
Final year total is $95.98 million. Full share = $8.726 million and half share = $4.363 million
If that's the final year total, reaching full equity in that year would be $6.856 million for each of fourteen teams.
