NCHC Standings and Tidbits...3rd Week of Feb
Like normal at this point in the year things move faster and faster. We learned a few more things this week.
Current Standings
1. Denver 41
2. NoDak 39
3. WMU 34
4. Duluth 29
5. SC 25
6. Omaha 19
7. CC 14
8. Miami 12
What we learned this week.
Miami is now officially out of home ice, and regular season championship contention. CC is also now out of the running for both of those as well. Omaha is now out of Championship contention.
"Magic numbers" 1...Magic # to win the regular season title, and 2....the Magic # to lock up a home series in the conference tourney.
Just a reminder a "magic number" is a combination of points you need to achieve and your opponents need to waste/lose. A team could gain up to 12 of their magic number points in a given week in a perfect scenario...or as little as 0. The magic number for some teams is larger than the points they can earn on their own....they need help.
Rank....Team.......Magic Number to Host....Magic Number to win league
8. Miami NA.....NA
Miami is now officially out of the race to host, but it was a solid week for Miami, they are just 2 points out of basement, and have a series vs. CC this week. For both teams there are tough games to go so this will likely determine who gets the 7 and who gets the 8.
7. CC NA.....NA
Everything that's on the line for Miami is on the line for CC who needs a split in the series to likely avoid finishing 8th. Both teams only chance at the postseason is winning the NCHC at this point as well.
6. Omaha.....27......NA
Omaha had a bad week, and most of their end of season goals are dead or on life support. They can no longer win the regular season championship and have a magic number of 27 to host (with only control over 18 of those points). For all intents and purposes they will not host. They should be out of the running in the pairwise...but they aren't because they have SCSU, Den, and NoDak left...all at home. If they go 5-1 to finish they could play their way into the postseason (and make a lot of Bronco fans happy) On the flip side it's not entirely impossible that they fall to 7 in the standings.
5. SCSU .....21......34
SCSU had a good week they took 4 of 6 points against a team ahead of them. They also have CC and Omaha left, and 3 games against the team ahead of them. They have a lot they still have control over. They still have quite a bit of control over their future...especially hosting. They also are in solid champ for the postseason. They likely need about a .500 record to close to make the tournament.
4. Duluth.....17....30
Duluth continues to hold an advantage over SCSU. They have a slightly tougher schedule but get SCSU at home 2 times. Duluth climbing to 1st is not likely, but 2nd is certainly still in play because they get NoDak at home. In reality however Duluth is looking at finishing somewhere between 3 and 5 right now.
3. WMU.....7.....25
WMU had a so so weekend. They took only 2 of 6 points from SCSU, but still own a 9 point advantage to finalize home ice. WMU is looking in two directions right now. How high up the ladder can they climb, and how little do they need to accomplish to achieve a postseason spot, and hosting in the NCHC. We need to win 2 of 6 plus 1 point to host. Since Duluth and SC will beat eachother up in the standings, if gives us a pretty big cushion now. With 6 points available against Miami still, it really doesn't require us finish that hot in order to host. Who we play is the bigger question. Finishing 1st is now a stretch if we sweep we will still be 1 point back now of Denver, and Denver's other opponents are Omaha and CC. We need to win out and get help. We can likely afford 1 non NoDak loss and get to 2nd...but that's it. So WMU also likely is finishing 3 or 4 at this point.
2. NoDak.....2....20
NoDak can lock up a home ice series with 2 points against Duluth this week. NoDak helped themselves this week in their quest for a regular season title. They don't get to play Denver heads up again, but they do own the tiebreaker. If Denver wins out there is nothing NoDak can do, but 1 Denver loss and NoDak controls their destiny. Denver does have the easier schedule however.
1. Denver......1.....17
Denver needs just 1 more point somewhere to lock up home ice in the NCHC tournament. Still some combination of 17 points between wins, and NoDak losses to win the title. So they can't lock it up this week. After the WMU series they have a pretty easy road to travel with Omaha and CC. Unless they get swept this week they likely are safe as a 1 or 2 seed.
Pairwise......going to take my first real stab for each team this week.
8. Miami....must win the NCHC to get in.
7. CC....must win the NCHC to get in.
6. Omaha....holding on for dear life for an at large bid. They have SC, Denver, and NoDak all at home. If they go 5-1, and win the first round of the NCHC tourney they get in....otherwise it's win the tourney mode.
5. SCSU....their non-con success has benefited them. If they win 4 regular season games and 2 of 3 in the first round they are safe....and likely can do it with a little less than that. I'd guess they are destined as a 3 seed.
4. Duluth...almost the exact same scenario as the mentioned above.
3. WMU....my best guess is we need to win 2 more games to guarantee we are in the tournament (and 1 more might do it, a safe way to look at it is if we beat Miami both times were in). A 3 seed likely means 3-4 wins. A 2 seed will likely require 5-6 wins (im guessing 5 will do it...but even 4 might do it). The way I look at it is 1-2 wins the next two weeks probably sets us up for a 2 seed at worst as long as we don't get swept by Miami or swept in the NCHC first round. To get a 1 seed we need to finish strong....sweeping Denver leap frogs them too, and makes the NoDak or NCHC run less significant. My guess is 7 wins locks up the 1 seed....we need Q and Minnesota to lose a couple and we are in good shape.
2. NoDak's chances at the conference title might be better than their chances in the tourney if you can believe that. They are an odd case. NoDak still has Duluth and WMU....that gives them help but that also makes their path challenging. If they go 3-3 to finish and don't win their opening round series they could be in trouble. If NoDak fell to the 4 seed and got SCSU it could get dicey. Best guess is they get in...but they could be looking at a 4 seed....what a bummer for a 1 seed who draws them.
1. Denver....I'm going to call them a lock now....so now it's about seeding for them. Very little work left to do to lock up a 3 seed. But odds are strong they finish no worse than a 2 seed.
So.....WMU can lock up home ice this week if they get some combination of 7 points in earned points or missed points by SCSU. And a sweep this week locks us into the NCAA tournament in my estimation, and keeps us alive in the regular season championship hunt. Anything less than a sweep largely ends our shot a league title.
(This post was last modified: 02-14-2022 09:56 AM by Doo.)
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NCHC Standings and Tidbits...3rd Week of Feb
