(02-10-2022 01:57 PM)rtist Wrote:  Right now, Baylor has the lead; the rest of the field isn't so far back that they can't close the gap in a few years.

Unless you're Kansas; they'll need at least 10 more years before that program catches up to the field.

They had 10 years and could never get out of the gate for FB.

Ok State, Baylor, TCU, UCF, and Cincy are the teams I think we will see at the top of the Big 12 more often than not over the next 10 years. Cincy and UCF are going to be really fun to watch now that they are in a P5 conference. They already have had stints of being very successful recently and their recruiting has only just started to really pick up since the Big 12 announcement.

Cincy has started to put a chokehold on upper-echelon prospects out of Ohio over the middling B1G teams like MSU, Indiana, Purdue, Northwestern, etc. and even starting to win battles against top-tier B1G teams like Michigan and Penn St. Ohio State and Notre Dame are still major blockers for the elite OH prospects but hopefully, Cincy can start winning a few of those recruiting battles every now and then. Kentucky is the major competition for recruits right now but who knows how long that lasts once Texas and Oklahoma join the SEC and Alabama / Auburn potentially shift East. Also, West Virginia is becoming more and more of an afterthought in Ohio recruiting. The Ahmad Gardner effect is starting to take root in Michigan as well, particularly in Detroit. Cincy sending 8 guys to the combine this year including two likely 1st rounders is gonna pay dividends in the 2023 class and beyond.

Gus Malzahn is really building something at UCF. As long as Miami and FSU stay relatively down, they will continue to grow their market share of the upper-echelon FL prospects. They are also making serious in-roads into Georgia with Malzahn at the helm too.

(02-11-2022 10:47 AM)UCbball21 Wrote:  Ok State, Baylor, TCU, UCF, and Cincy are the teams I think we will see at the top of the Big 12 more often than not over the next 10 years. Cincy and UCF are going to be really fun to watch now that they are in a P5 conference. They already have had stints of being very successful recently and their recruiting has only just started to really pick up since the Big 12 announcement.

I agree that the newcomers, in particular Cincinnati, Houston and UCF, can start to take it to a higher level with the uptick in conference play. However, I believe Okie St is at the top of the B12 perch in terms of overall success, history and brand strength. They will reside there until someone can knock them off.

(02-11-2022 03:38 AM)goofus Wrote:  In the end I voted for BYU. They seem to have the right combo of historical success, and future potential to sustain it. But the key word there is potential. It really is wide open for any school to grab.

BYU does have great potential, with the LDS church I think they have an extremely loyal national fanbase second (and 2nd with a BIG gap) only to Notre Dame's.

(02-09-2022 11:06 PM)cc22 Wrote:  Multilayered question - but teams best positioned for long term control of the conference?

That's how I would look at the question: If you start the new Big 12 with the first year that OU and UT are gone, which team will be the best over the first 10 years?

To answer that I'll ask another question: Which team is going to have a top-notch head coach who stays with the team for all of those 10 years? That was the biggest factor in the football rise of TCU with Patterson and Utah with Whittingham. Not market size, or stadium size, or facilities, or recruiting territory, not even who spends the most money on football.

It's which team has a really good head coach who sticks around and wins for those 10 years, doesn't burn out, doesn't fizzle out after losing key assistants, and doesn't get lured away for more money or a more prestigious job.

We can't really predict 10-plus years into the future, but if I had to bet based on that factor, I'd bet on Sitake staying at BYU.

(02-11-2022 01:44 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(02-09-2022 11:06 PM)cc22 Wrote:  Multilayered question - but teams best positioned for long term control of the conference?

That's how I would look at the question: If you start the new Big 12 with the first year that OU and UT are gone, which team will be the best over the first 10 years?

To answer that I'll ask another question: Which team is going to have a top-notch head coach who stays with the team for all of those 10 years? That was the biggest factor in the football rise of TCU with Patterson and Utah with Whittingham. Not market size, or stadium size, or facilities, or recruiting territory, not even who spends the most money on football.

It's which team has a really good head coach who sticks around and wins for those 10 years, doesn't burn out, doesn't fizzle out after losing key assistants, and doesn't get lured away for more money or a more prestigious job.

We can't really predict 10-plus years into the future, but if I had to bet based on that factor, I'd bet on Sitake staying at BYU.

I would turn that around a bit to ask what programs can withstand coaching changes? Aside from a few programs, coaches like players, are in constant flux. That includes head coaches as well as assistants. We've had constant turnover of assistants at Cincinnati since Luke Fickell has taken the helm. However, he's stayed and is beginning Year Six. That definitely helps program stability and recruiting. He's also the only coach in the past two decades that has stayed for more than the typical three-four seasons at UC. No question Cincinnati's rise is tied to his commitment to the program. That said, a program's success is also tied to support and commitment from the community, donors, alumni, fans and students. There has to be a buzz around a program to help it thrive and be a place that players want to play for and coaches want to lead. One factor for Cincinnati is our football stadium. It's one of the oldest in the nation but only seats about 40,000. No coincidence that we have the nation's current second longest home win streak due to that home atmosphere - especially a night game.

We'll find out around 2027 when the new patterns are clear with the post Texas and Oklahoma league and TV contract (lower profile, lower revenue). Only a few years into that cycle will it be clear who has the ability to stay relevant in the P5 world.

Right now it's a popularity contest, especially a fan poll. Who has more alumni, or more accurately who has more active fans on this board.

Over the long run success favors higher resources. That being the case TCU then Baylor should lead most often. Kansas and BYU also have the resources, but each has certain issues (Mormon mission for BYU, Basketball alignment for KU) that constrain football from reaching the very top levels (BYU I see as perpetually 8-4 in a power conference; solid, but not playoff level except once a decade and a half in an expanded model).

For the public schools their base matters. Oklahoma State is pretty solid, but Houston and UCF will be right there. I see West Virginia and Iowa State as a bit further down, and frankly not clear of Cincy, K State and Texas Tech. That said, Cincy is sitting on an exceptional coach, one who by all rights should be at a top ten resource program like USC, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Ohio State, Penn State or Texas. But so long as he is at Cincy, and because they are in/moving to a major conference, they'll be like Boise State on steroids for awhile, quite likely battling Baylor and Oklahoma State for Big 12 supremacy. But long term I just don't see Cincy as having the same resource level to sustain it after Luke.

That's all opinion. But it's based on resources.

(02-11-2022 01:44 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(02-09-2022 11:06 PM)cc22 Wrote:  Multilayered question - but teams best positioned for long term control of the conference?

That's how I would look at the question: If you start the new Big 12 with the first year that OU and UT are gone, which team will be the best over the first 10 years?

To answer that I'll ask another question: Which team is going to have a top-notch head coach who stays with the team for all of those 10 years? That was the biggest factor in the football rise of TCU with Patterson and Utah with Whittingham. Not market size, or stadium size, or facilities, or recruiting territory, not even who spends the most money on football.

It's which team has a really good head coach who sticks around and wins for those 10 years, doesn't burn out, doesn't fizzle out after losing key assistants, and doesn't get lured away for more money or a more prestigious job.

We can't really predict 10-plus years into the future, but if I had to bet based on that factor, I'd bet on Sitake staying at BYU.

If that's the question, I'd bet on Cincinnati being pretty good.

It's not just that Luke Fickell seems like he's sticking around as long as Ryan Day sticks around at Ohio State (although that's part of it).

It's also that Fickell has done a great job of finding and training young assistant coaches. His former DC is now HC at Notre Dame. His former RB coach is now HC at Youngstown State. His current OC and co-DC were internal promotions of young, talented coaches.

In addition, many of the current assistant coaches are Cincinnati guys who are likely to stick around even if Fickell leaves. OC Gino Guidugli is a Cincinnati native and former star UC quarterback. LB coach Walter Stewart, quality control coach Armon Binns, and director of recruiting Pat Lambert were star players at UC ten years ago. DL coach Greg Scruggs and special teams coach Kerry Coombs are Cincinnati natives.

(02-11-2022 02:06 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  

(02-11-2022 01:44 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(02-09-2022 11:06 PM)cc22 Wrote:  Multilayered question - but teams best positioned for long term control of the conference?

That's how I would look at the question: If you start the new Big 12 with the first year that OU and UT are gone, which team will be the best over the first 10 years?

To answer that I'll ask another question: Which team is going to have a top-notch head coach who stays with the team for all of those 10 years? That was the biggest factor in the football rise of TCU with Patterson and Utah with Whittingham. Not market size, or stadium size, or facilities, or recruiting territory, not even who spends the most money on football.

It's which team has a really good head coach who sticks around and wins for those 10 years, doesn't burn out, doesn't fizzle out after losing key assistants, and doesn't get lured away for more money or a more prestigious job.

We can't really predict 10-plus years into the future, but if I had to bet based on that factor, I'd bet on Sitake staying at BYU.

I would turn that around a bit to ask what programs can withstand coaching changes? Aside from a few programs, coaches like players, are in constant flux. That includes head coaches as well as assistants. We've had constant turnover of assistants at Cincinnati since Luke Fickell has taken the helm. However, he's stayed and is beginning Year Six. That definitely helps program stability and recruiting. He's also the only coach in the past two decades that has stayed for more than the typical three-four seasons at UC. No question Cincinnati's rise is tied to his commitment to the program. That said, a program's success is also tied to support and commitment from the community, donors, alumni, fans and students. There has to be a buzz around a program to help it thrive and be a place that players want to play for and coaches want to lead. One factor for Cincinnati is our football stadium. It's one of the oldest in the nation but only seats about 40,000. No coincidence that we have the nation's current second longest home win streak due to that home atmosphere - especially a night game.

Yeah, the bolded part is a big factor in a head coach being successful -- when a good assistant leaves, you have to be able to replace him with another good coach, and that means being able to put friendships and connections aside sometimes and see the difference between a good coach and a not-so-good coach. Some head coaches do that well; others let their connections weigh more heavily than whether a guy is a really good coach and recruiter.

A team also needs a budget that allows them to pay what's needed to hire good assistants, but IMO nearly all the new Big 12 teams will be roughly even with those resources.

(02-11-2022 02:18 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  In addition, many of the current assistant coaches are Cincinnati guys who are likely to stick around even if Fickell leaves.

That's a good sign because there have been a few teams that have done well passing the baton from one head coach to another. (TCU, Franchione to Patterson, and Utah, Meyer to Whittingham, are again good examples there.) I would still give an edge to the team with one really good coach who stays for the long term.

(02-11-2022 02:06 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  We'll find out around 2027 when the new patterns are clear with the post Texas and Oklahoma league and TV contract (lower profile, lower revenue). Only a few years into that cycle will it be clear who has the ability to stay relevant in the P5 world.

Right now it's a popularity contest, especially a fan poll. Who has more alumni, or more accurately who has more active fans on this board.

Over the long run success favors higher resources. That being the case TCU then Baylor should lead most often. Kansas and BYU also have the resources, but each has certain issues (Mormon mission for BYU, Basketball alignment for KU) that constrain football from reaching the very top levels (BYU I see as perpetually 8-4 in a power conference; solid, but not playoff level except once a decade and a half in an expanded model).

For the public schools their base matters. Oklahoma State is pretty solid, but Houston and UCF will be right there. I see West Virginia and Iowa State as a bit further down, and frankly not clear of Cincy, K State and Texas Tech. That said, Cincy is sitting on an exceptional coach, one who by all rights should be at a top ten resource program like USC, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Ohio State, Penn State or Texas. But so long as he is at Cincy, and because they are in/moving to a major conference, they'll be like Boise State on steroids for awhile, quite likely battling Baylor and Oklahoma State for Big 12 supremacy. But long term I just don't see Cincy as having the same resource level to sustain it after Luke.

That's all opinion. But it's based on resources.

That’s a 1980s/90s opinion of UC. People have been saying they are going to not sustain their success since 2007. IIRC you are originally an Ohio guy- the amount of $ put into the program compared to the past is night and day. You would not recognize the place; even people that live here see huge changes on a year-to-year basis.

Oklahoma State. But, I could easily see a lot of competition year-in, year-out.