... what happens to the schools that remain from the mid-majors in D1 all the way down to the D3 bottom feeders?

What does college athletics look like without benefit of the massive TV contracts, subsidies from the College Football Playoff and possibly a reconfigured March Madness?

How about things that change and things that stay the same.

What y'all think?

First thing they do is sue. Because they feel they have a birthright to the money that the established brands have rightfully earned.

Just speaking for myself, if/when it happens, I think I would lose interest in college sports, overall, if the NCAA Basketball Tournament only consisted of the Power 6 conferences and a handful of invited schools from other leagues. One of the beauties to March Madness is seeing lesser teams that few people have heard of, pushing the big boys to the limit, and sometimes, even handing them a stunning loss. As it is now, I have virtually no interest in college football like I used to have. There's no real excitement to the regular season for me anymore. The same teams or conferences dominate each and every year, and no matter how close a game is, college football just doesn't hold the same level of enjoyment as it used to.

Monday night, I did not see any of the Kansas-Texas game. Those teams are on the tube frequently. Instead, I watched some of the Alabama A & M at Grambling game. Sure, the level of play wasn't the same, but the fans in attendance were into the game and were as excited as the fans in Austin. I don't know...maybe I'm just an old fuddy-duddy!

(02-08-2022 12:22 PM)Midwestan Wrote:  Just speaking for myself, if/when it happens, I think I would lose interest in college sports, overall, if the NCAA Basketball Tournament only consisted of the Power 6 conferences and a handful of invited schools from other leagues.

Yeah, March Madness would lose a lot of its appeal if there wasn't a chance — however remote — for a No. 15 or 16 seed to slay a giant.

Think the D1 tournament could carry on as is, but with the inevitable widening of the gap in resources how would the overall competitiveness be impacted?

I could see a future where the upper crust had a 48 team tournament. Seeds 1-4 get a first round bye. (This would eliminate some of the David vs Goliath match’s ups from the Thurs-Fri schedule but also would mean no more starting the tournament at noon on a work day.

(02-08-2022 12:22 PM)Midwestan Wrote:  Just speaking for myself, if/when it happens, I think I would lose interest in college sports, overall, if the NCAA Basketball Tournament only consisted of the Power 6 conferences and a handful of invited schools from other leagues. One of the beauties to March Madness is seeing lesser teams that few people have heard of, pushing the big boys to the limit, and sometimes, even handing them a stunning loss. As it is now, I have virtually no interest in college football like I used to have. There's no real excitement to the regular season for me anymore. The same teams or conferences dominate each and every year, and no matter how close a game is, college football just doesn't hold the same level of enjoyment as it used to.

Monday night, I did not see any of the Kansas-Texas game. Those teams are on the tube frequently. Instead, I watched some of the Alabama A & M at Grambling game. Sure, the level of play wasn't the same, but the fans in attendance were into the game and were as excited as the fans in Austin. I don't know...maybe I'm just an old fuddy-duddy!

Feel the same way about CFB. Strangely the CFP has seemed to make the sport more static than it was before so its lost some of its novelty. This is resulting from recruits seeing the limited path to the top and there seems to be more of concentration of talent in a few places than ever before. At this point if the top 5 or so conferences left the rest it would probably mean the end of my interest in college BB and FB as it would basically just be a minor league at that point.

(02-08-2022 12:22 PM)Midwestan Wrote:  Just speaking for myself, if/when it happens, I think I would lose interest in college sports, overall, if the NCAA Basketball Tournament only consisted of the Power 6 conferences and a handful of invited schools from other leagues. One of the beauties to March Madness is seeing lesser teams that few people have heard of, pushing the big boys to the limit, and sometimes, even handing them a stunning loss. As it is now, I have virtually no interest in college football like I used to have. There's no real excitement to the regular season for me anymore. The same teams or conferences dominate each and every year, and no matter how close a game is, college football just doesn't hold the same level of enjoyment as it used to.

Monday night, I did not see any of the Kansas-Texas game. Those teams are on the tube frequently. Instead, I watched some of the Alabama A & M at Grambling game. Sure, the level of play wasn't the same, but the fans in attendance were into the game and were as excited as the fans in Austin. I don't know...maybe I'm just an old fuddy-duddy!

Same

I began following college sports before television played a significant role and it did just fine. The NCAA tournament wasn't televised at all. I imagine I'll continue to follow it no matter what happens.

This is tough to predict how it will play out.

What seems to be happening is the P5 is gradually adding the remaining valuable athletic brands to the point where they have enough programs to create their own subdivision. The G5 appears to be at their own game of gobbling up all the quality FCS programs.

If the P5 does leave that would leave the FBS/FCS split in place in D1. FBS could then have a bowl championship series to determine its champion. FCS then has its separate playoff.

D1 would be left with about 300 schools so a 64 team tournament could still be viable, OTOH what does that to P5 basketball? A 16 team tournament? Its problematic for them.

Another option would be to create a new top division but require FBS football to participate. That would force the BE to add FB again if they want to stay top level which could cause realignment effects. At the end of the day a new D1 of 150-160 is a possible outcome.

(02-08-2022 12:15 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  First thing they do is sue. Because they feel they have a birthright to the money that the established brands have rightfully earned.

Is that you Richard Blumenthal?

(02-08-2022 01:38 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  D1 would be left with about 300 schools so a 64 team tournament could still be viable, OTOH what does that to P5 basketball? A 16 team tournament? Its problematic for them.

Another option would be to create a new top division but require FBS football to participate. That would force the BE to add FB again if they want to stay top level which could cause realignment effects. At the end of the day a new D1 of 150-160 is a possible outcome.

No thanks

(02-08-2022 01:44 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(02-08-2022 12:15 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  First thing they do is sue. Because they feel they have a birthright to the money that the established brands have rightfully earned.

Is that you Richard Blumenthal?

Way off on the party.

(02-08-2022 01:54 PM)AuzGrams Wrote:  

(02-08-2022 01:38 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  D1 would be left with about 300 schools so a 64 team tournament could still be viable, OTOH what does that to P5 basketball? A 16 team tournament? Its problematic for them.

Another option would be to create a new top division but require FBS football to participate. That would force the BE to add FB again if they want to stay top level which could cause realignment effects. At the end of the day a new D1 of 150-160 is a possible outcome.

No thanks

Yes please

(02-08-2022 01:38 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  This is tough to predict how it will play out.

What seems to be happening is the P5 is gradually adding the remaining valuable athletic brands to the point where they have enough programs to create their own subdivision. The G5 appears to be at their own game of gobbling up all the quality FCS programs.

If the P5 does leave that would leave the FBS/FCS split in place in D1. FBS could then have a bowl championship series to determine its champion. FCS then has its separate playoff.

D1 would be left with about 300 schools so a 64 team tournament could still be viable, OTOH what does that to P5 basketball? A 16 team tournament? Its problematic for them.

Another option would be to create a new top division but require FBS football to participate. That would force the BE to add FB again if they want to stay top level which could cause realignment effects. At the end of the day a new D1 of 150-160 is a possible outcome.

If you were to take only the conferences who get multiple teams in each year, you'd have about 130-140 teams to choose 48-64 teams from. Perfectly doable.

(02-08-2022 02:00 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  

(02-08-2022 01:54 PM)AuzGrams Wrote:  

(02-08-2022 01:38 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  D1 would be left with about 300 schools so a 64 team tournament could still be viable, OTOH what does that to P5 basketball? A 16 team tournament? Its problematic for them.

Another option would be to create a new top division but require FBS football to participate. That would force the BE to add FB again if they want to stay top level which could cause realignment effects. At the end of the day a new D1 of 150-160 is a possible outcome.

No thanks

Yes please

Nobody cares about a P5 tournament.

(02-08-2022 11:43 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  ... what happens to the schools that remain from the mid-majors in D1 all the way down to the D3 bottom feeders?

What does college athletics look like without benefit of the massive TV contracts, subsidies from the College Football Playoff and possibly a reconfigured March Madness?

How about things that change and things that stay the same.

What y'all think?

I don't think there will be a P5 breakaway. I could see the hoops tournament money formula being tweaked to direct more of it to the P5, but that's about it.

Even less likely IMO is a P5 + G5 or some of G5 breakaway. If the P5 is going to breakaway, which I don't think it would do, it would defeat the purpose to bring along G5 conferences.

So I think we will continue to muddle along as we have, without a breakaway.

We'll see.

(02-08-2022 01:27 PM)AztecEmpire Wrote:  

(02-08-2022 12:22 PM)Midwestan Wrote:  Just speaking for myself, if/when it happens, I think I would lose interest in college sports, overall, if the NCAA Basketball Tournament only consisted of the Power 6 conferences and a handful of invited schools from other leagues. One of the beauties to March Madness is seeing lesser teams that few people have heard of, pushing the big boys to the limit, and sometimes, even handing them a stunning loss. As it is now, I have virtually no interest in college football like I used to have. There's no real excitement to the regular season for me anymore. The same teams or conferences dominate each and every year, and no matter how close a game is, college football just doesn't hold the same level of enjoyment as it used to.

Monday night, I did not see any of the Kansas-Texas game. Those teams are on the tube frequently. Instead, I watched some of the Alabama A & M at Grambling game. Sure, the level of play wasn't the same, but the fans in attendance were into the game and were as excited as the fans in Austin. I don't know...maybe I'm just an old fuddy-duddy!

Feel the same way about CFB. Strangely the CFP has seemed to make the sport more static than it was before so its lost some of its novelty. This is resulting from recruits seeing the limited path to the top and there seems to be more of concentration of talent in a few places than ever before. At this point if the top 5 or so conferences left the rest it would probably mean the end of my interest in college BB and FB as it would basically just be a minor league at that point.

I agree with this. It's seemingly counterintuitive, as one of the main arguments for playoff expansion is to "get more teams involved" or something, but it hasn't worked that way, and I don't think it would work if we expanded to 8 or 12 or 16 either.

Even this year, with two new teams making the CFP for the first time, felt like kind of a fluke. Michigan and Cincy getting in because several big powers, like LSU and Clemson and Ohio State having, by their standards, off-years.

College football used to be much more 'geologically active' before the CFP, and moreso still before the BCS. Every move towards expanding the playoffs has made the CFP world less like the earth and more like the moon, geologically.

I've mentioned this previously....

The one thing that solves all the problems is a 3rd party sponsoring an Invitational tournament. The tournament could invite anyone they wanted from any division, even D2 if they thought a team worthy. The sponsorship and broadcast money would be huge, and it would flow to the schools that actually earned an invitation.

And it might save the NCAA. Right now there's an enormous conflict of interest with the NCAA being a content provider (i.e. games) that bring huge money, and being a regulator of conduct. See North Carolina academic fraud controversy. Take the huge money from the NCAA, and they'll be able to better do their job of regulating.

As many have said here, a division of just the P5 wouldn't be interesting. See what happened in Euro soccer when they tried to form a super league last year. The fans rebelled, and it was totally unexpected from the organizers. It was cancelled.

So you'd have a major reshuffling of divisions:
D1a = P5 & G5 (schools that spend and earn enormous amounts of money)
D1b = Schools the spend a lot of money but don't earn a lot of money
D2 = Schools that spend a moderate amount of money
D3 = Schools that don't offer scholarships

Everyone would want to be D1a, but only the P5 & G5 would qualify
The remainder of existing D1 would be D1b, plus a lot of big D2s that that would now find it viable to be D1(b)
D2s would consist of smaller schools that want to offer athletic scholarships and play at a high level, but keep other costs low, including some existing D3s. You would also get some D1b step downs, who find that D1 has lost its charm once they aren't in the same division as Duke and Michigan.
D3 would still be the remainder that doesn't offer athletic scholarships.

Apart from the invitational "Big Dance", each division would still have it's own tournament.

(02-08-2022 02:02 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  

(02-08-2022 01:38 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  This is tough to predict how it will play out.

What seems to be happening is the P5 is gradually adding the remaining valuable athletic brands to the point where they have enough programs to create their own subdivision. The G5 appears to be at their own game of gobbling up all the quality FCS programs.

If the P5 does leave that would leave the FBS/FCS split in place in D1. FBS could then have a bowl championship series to determine its champion. FCS then has its separate playoff.

D1 would be left with about 300 schools so a 64 team tournament could still be viable, OTOH what does that to P5 basketball? A 16 team tournament? Its problematic for them.

Another option would be to create a new top division but require FBS football to participate. That would force the BE to add FB again if they want to stay top level which could cause realignment effects. At the end of the day a new D1 of 150-160 is a possible outcome.

If you were to take only the conferences who get multiple teams in each year, you'd have about 130-140 teams to choose 48-64 teams from. Perfectly doable.

Clearly the P5 aren't going to separate themselves from all 290 or so basketball teams in D-I. But even if only 30-40 non P5 schools joined them they would have a very viable tournament and the other 240 or so teams would be left with a tournament that few people would watch and networks wouldn't pay much to televise.

(02-08-2022 02:22 PM)teamvsn Wrote:  I've mentioned this previously....

The one thing that solves all the problems is a 3rd party sponsoring an Invitational tournament. The tournament could invite anyone they wanted from any division, even D2 if they thought a team worthy. The sponsorship and broadcast money would be huge, and it would flow to the schools that actually earned an invitation.

And it might save the NCAA. Right now there's an enormous conflict of interest with the NCAA being a content provider (i.e. games) that bring huge money, and being a regulator of conduct. See North Carolina academic fraud controversy. Take the huge money from the NCAA, and they'll be able to better do their job of regulating.

As many have said here, a division of just the P5 wouldn't be interesting. See what happened in Euro soccer when they tried to form a super league last year. The fans rebelled, and it was totally unexpected from the organizers. It was cancelled.

So you'd have a major reshuffling of divisions:
D1a = P5 & G5 (schools that spend and earn enormous amounts of money)
D1b = Schools the spend a lot of money but don't earn a lot of money
D2 = Schools that spend a moderate amount of money
D3 = Schools that don't offer scholarships

Everyone would want to be D1a, but only the P5 & G5 would qualify
The remainder of existing D1 would be D1b, plus a lot of big D2s that that would now find it viable to be D1(b)
D2s would consist of smaller schools that want to offer athletic scholarships and play at a high level, but keep other costs low, including some existing D3s. You would also get some D1b step downs, who find that D1 has lost its charm once they aren't in the same division as Duke and Michigan.
D3 would still be the remainder that doesn't offer athletic scholarships.

Just about the bolded parts -

First, I think this money distribution would run counter to what the P5 want. As others have noted, school administrators do not like 'variable' income flows. They like guaranteed money. The PAC collects that huge $60m CFP check, and a $40m Rose Bowl check most years as well, even if they don't place anyone in the playoffs. That's how the big conferences want it. So IMO, if anything, we are likely to see a revamp of the NCAA tournament distributions in a direction less oriented towards merit - making the tournament - and more towards guaranteed money for the P5.

That segues in to the second bolded statement. I agree, interest in a P5-only tournament would be far less than in the current tournament. As with European soccer, the romance of the sport, what attracts casual fans who sponsors crave, is the chance of big Cinderella upsets. And by that I don't mean Ole Miss beating Texas. But on the other hand, it's also IMO true that the great bulk of the appeal of the NCAA tournament is from the big P5 brands. People love to see underdog Pepperdine vs big dog Duke, but they also love to see big dog Kentucky vs big dog Duke. They don't have any interest in seeing underdog Pepperdine vs underdog Texas Pan-American. So the P5 are still where most of the value of the event lies.

Finally, about your categories, I would say that almost all G5 are best described as "spend enormous amounts of money but earn very little money".

Just my two cents ....