NCHC Standings and Tidbits....2nd Week of February
Current Standings
1. Denver 38
2. NoDak 33
3. WMU 32
4. Duluth 25
5. Omaha 19
6. SCSU 19
7. CC 14
8. Miami 6
We are to the point in the year where the picture gets clearer every week more and more rapidly. While there are scenarios available in all sorts of directions the probability of landing spots is getting clearer.
What we know now: CC is holding on to the craziest scenario to winning the league title....but are 1 point away from elimination. Omaha also likely will be eliminated from title contention this week.
"Magic numbers" 1...Magic # to win the regular season title, and 2....the Magic # to lock up a home series in the conference tourney.
Just a reminder a "magic number" is a combination of points you need to achieve and your opponents need to waste/lose. A team could gain up to 12 of their magic number points in a given week in a perfect scenario...or as little as 0. The magic number for some teams is larger than the points they can earn on their own....they need help.
Rank....Team.......Magic Number to Host....Magic Number to win league
8. Miami ..49.....NA
Believe it or not Miami with a lot of help could still host, but it basically impossible. Getting to 5th is still not that tall of an order if they got a little help, and got hot to finish the season. With that said 8th seems like the most likely landing spot still.
7. CC.....14...........41......48
CC didn't help themselves this past week, while they still get Miami, they have to travel to NoDak, SCSU, and to Denver once. They are more than likely destined for 7th....if they split with Miami or better. Sneaking up to 5th is possible but with that schedule....not likely.
6. SCSU......19..........36......43
SCSU loses the current tiebreaker and is in 6th, but has 2 more games to play than Omaha which gives them a slight advantage to outperform Omaha in the standings. Four games with Duluth will do a lot to solve the who gets No. 4 talk. They likely need to win at least 3 of the 4 however to make that happen. Best guess puts them anywhere from 4-6 in the finish...but if they struggle they could fall to 7.
5. Omaha......19......36.....43
Outlook is similar for Omaha to what I said about SCSU. Omaha has to play Denver and NoDak, but they get them at home. The head to head series with SCSU might be the deciding factor. Omaha might need to go 5-3 (maybe 6-2) to host. Best guess is they finish between 5-7.
4. Duluth........25.......30......37
Duluth has 2 more games to play than any of the teams ahead of them....problem is they are 7 points back of the next spot. Not only do they have 4 more with SCSU they have to play Denver and NoDak as well. That's a tall ask with 2 extra games squeezed in. While they have a path because of that schedule to still fight for the league title, it's hard to see them go 8-2 or 9-1 to finish. They have the best chance to earn the 4, and 3 or 2 is not out of the question.....but so is 6th...
3. WMU.....32........23.........30
WMU has likely built a big enough cushion to feel good about hosting after last week (especially with a home series with Miami left). The real question probably revolves around finishing 2,3 or 4. Winning the league is still within reach because both NoDak, and Denver are on the schedule.....If WMU wins out they don't need any help....that's comforting.....with that said winning out is a major task with whats left. NoDak v. WMU for 2nd is probably the race.
2. NoDak....33.....22.....29
NoDak's story is almost the exact same as WMU.......the problem is the head to head is at NoDak, and NoDak's schedule is quite a bit easier....They are done with Denver. The WMU series probably only requires them to get a split to get the 2 seed.
1. Denver.......38......17.....24
Denver hasn't locked up home ice yet....but it's a forgone conclusion in reality, the league title is still questionable, as I said before if Denver goes 6-2 but loses both to WMU, and WMU wins out...WMU wins the league. Denver still gets Omaha, and CC, so they will win at least 3 of those games, and that will put the squeeze on everyone.
Most likely playoff matchups as of 2/7
8. Miami @ 1. Denver
5. SCSU @ 4. Duluth
6. Omaha @ 3. WMU
7. CC @ 2. NoDak
But one crazy week could change all of that.....
Pairwise Talk
All in all this was a week where the Pairwise largely held firm. Teams that are 15-25 are getting nervous with so little movement. The good thing with little movement is probable outcomes become more firmed up.
WMU's scenario doesn't seem to have changed much. A 3-5 finish, plus a 1-2 performance in the conference tourney puts up very close to the cut line. (Man I hope we finish better than that) A sweep this week will put us very close to being a lock...very close.
So my scenarios this week don't verge much from last weeks.... 4 wins likely lock us into the tourney....to earn a 3 seed probably need 5-6 more wins....to earn a 2 seed 7-8 more wins, and a 1 seed is probably 9-10. Max number of wins possible at this point is 12. (The smaller side of the guess if we go 2-0 in the opening series, the higher number if we go 2-1).
So moral of the story a sweep by WMU this week...likely doesn't lock up home ice or a playoff berth.....but it'll get us really damn close.
|
/
NCHC Standings and Tidbits....2nd Week of February
