(02-07-2022 07:26 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote: (02-07-2022 06:33 PM)Big Red Wrote: (02-07-2022 02:07 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote: (02-05-2022 01:22 PM)HuskieJ Wrote: (02-05-2022 12:54 PM)Big Red Wrote: I totally get your point. I guess it's just shades of grey where I see it slightly differently.
I don't see UIC (either in the Horizon or the MVC) taking any substantial or fractional attention away from NIU. If one of them does well and goes dancing, they'll get attention. Otherwise, they get no pub.
I will way, as will be constructed, the MVC has a real good shot at returning to the 2-bid conference soon. And that's basically based on the additions (namely, Belmont and Murray State). But Missouri State is on the rise and will compete for the top spots. Drake is always in the conversation (they're like the Saint Mary's of the MVC...always around but typically not quite good enough to be the top dog). Theoretically, SIU and ISU should compete in that league. Probably Bradley too, but they typically they struggle.
That conference provides real good competition with only a couple also-rans.
It wouldn't surprise me if UIC starts to compete in that league. They have the money and facilities. They just need to utilize their resources.
You could realistically see Belmont, Murray State, Drake, Missouri State be the top horses with Northern Iowa (I keep forgetting about them) and UIC being in a tier that competes year after year.
I see it as a better version of what the Ohio Valley was up until a year or so ago with Austin Peay, Jacksonville State, and Morehead State pushing Murray State and Belmont each year.
Man oh man has the OVC dropped off a cliff. They're soon going to be Morehead State and a bunch of Tennessee garbage.
No way those new teams get MVC back to two bids. Nice additions, but they are not Wichita State, Creighton, and Loyola.
Murray State's ranked in the AP Top-25 today. That's the 3rd time Murray State has been ranked in 10 years...and none of those were the Ja Morant teams. They've had 3 teams win NCAAT games since 2010.
Belmont just got an at-large a few years ago. Belmont has been ranked 23rd (2011), 25th (2012), 43rd (2013), 49th (2019), & 54th (2022) in KenPom over the past 12 years.
Loyola has 3 NCAA Tournament teams in 35 years: 2018, 2021, and this year. They lose almost everyone next year and are likely to fall off.
Belmont and Murray State have had more sustained success than Loyola. Loyola appears better than they actually have been because, in their 3 good teams over the past 35 years, they cashed in on them to the max: Final 4, Sweet 16, and TBD this year. But history indicates Loyola is likely to regress to the mean (they lose pretty much everyone next year, so it'll likely start then).
They also lost the head coach that took them to the Final 4 and Sweet 16.
Yep, and I also think Krutwig was just a legendary player for them that they're just not going to get again. Once the parade of seniors graduate after this season, I think they're going to fall into an annual 100-150, mid-pack A-10 team. IMO, this was bound to happen regardless of what league Loyola was going to be in. Loyola, historically, is a flash-in-the-pan program (1963-1968, 1985, 2018-2022).
Many liked to look at Loyola and wonder if they were the next Gonzaga. Obviously a ridiculously unfair comparison as Gonzaga is such a unicorn you can't compare.
But I will say, being a private university with a zillion dollars in potential resources (way more than Gonzaga) in a basketball focused league actually made it more possible for Loyola to make some kind of move to dominance like Gonzaga did.
But two things happened. One, they're moving to the A-10 where they're no longer the big fish in a little pond. Davidison, Dayton, Saint Louis, VCU and a few other programs there have long histories of sustained, high-level success. Loyola is going to walk into a meat grinder of a conference and the years of gaudy W/L records is much more difficult to obtain. One misstep will be exploited.
Second, and this one is much bigger. Porter Moser moved to Oklahoma.
See, the major thing Gonzaga had was Mark Few. When they're AD designed their rise to the top, he hand-picked Mark Few to be the guy to take them there and keep them there.
And boy was he right.
With Loyola, they just had their legendary (potentially) head coach go for greener pastures. Few never did that and had he chosen that route, Gonzaga may (probably) would have never reached the heights they've reached.
And now they've handed those reins to Belmont to take their shot.
Belmont had their legendary coach (Rick Byrd) retire after 33 years. He took Belmont from NAIA to a regular NCAA Tournament participant and Top 25 ranking. Once making their break into D-1 basketball, Belmont played 5 seasons as an independent (58-78) before joining the Atlantic Sun. They then spend 11 seasons in the ASun and went 227-122 and went to the Tournament 5 times (they tied for 1st in one other season but didn't get to go dancing). From there, Byrd took the Bruins to the Ohio Valley Conference where they spent 7 seasons (under Byrd) and went 168-62, going to the Tournament 3 times.
But, at the age of 65, Byrd decided to hand the reins over to someone younger. Belmont hired Casey Alexander (formerly the HC at Stetson and Lipscomb).
So far, under Alexander, the Bruins have gone 52-11. They qualified for the Tournament in his 1st year (but covid happened) and finished 1st but didn't get asked to Dance in his 2nd year. Granted, it doesn't look like Belmont will go dancing this year as Murray State (and Morehead State) seem poised to keep the Bruins out. But, they could easily win their tournament (setting up that 2 team thing) before they head on down the road (over?) to the MVC.
Whether or not Belmont is able to capitalize on this (other than just being one of the best teams in the MVC...which they already are) will depend on if Alexander is the right guy, he stays, and the university is committed to advancing the program.
