(02-09-2022 01:13 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote: (02-09-2022 04:56 AM)Milwaukee Wrote: (02-06-2022 09:34 PM)parialex Wrote: Their contract ends in 2025-26. The playoff won't be in effect by then, but participants in the negotiation will know what the format will be. I think it'll be pretty significant. The MWC and AAC will be due a pretty big bump I think.
Unfortunately for the future AAC members, the Sun Belt and MWC have had more than twice as many top 30 teams (in the Massey Composite) than the Future AAC (2.0) teams have had since 2018 (2 top 30 teams/year compared to the AAC's 0.75 top 30 teams/year).
Thus, if the conferences with the strongest shot at putting teams into the playoffs are going to get a "bump" (referring to the amount they're paid, presumably), the SBC might get as much of a bump as the MWC gets, and they might get a larger bump than the AAC gets, unless the viewership numbers for the future AAC 2.0 teams come in strong enough to offset the conference leaders' rankings.
The AAC 2.0's main hope, going forward, may have to reside in the likelihood that once UC, UH, and UCF are gone, 3 or 4 conf. teams will take advantage of the opportunity to win 10-13 games per season - - just like UTSA was able to become a top 25 program last season by winning 12 games against relatively weak competition (6 of UTSA's opponents were ranked.#100 or lower by Massey, and only one was ranked higher than #60).
For example, SMU went 8-4 (4-4) in 2021, but two of their losses were conference games vs. UC & UH. If they had played Charlotte & FAU instead of UC & UH, SMU might well have gone 10-2 (6-2), won the AAC championship, and finished the season in the top 25 with an 11-3 or 12-2 (as Utah St., Houston, and SDSU did).
Likewise, ECU went 7-5 (5-3) in 2021, but three of their losses were to conference foes UC, UH, & UCF. If they hadn't had to play those three teams, they (like SMU) might have been able to go 10-2 (8-0) and to finish the season with 11 or 12 wins.
It could really be helpful to the "AAC 2.0" if 2 or 3 conference teams can win 10+ games right out of the gate (the 2023 FB season), like the top 3 Sun Belt teams have done the past couple of years. Even if most of those wins would come by beating mediocre G5 opponents, schools such as App State and Coastal Carolina have shown that a 10+ win season can do wonders for the public perception of a program and conference that needs to quickly build itself a (new) brand.
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We won’t find out until 2023 season, but I’m fairly confident that just as in the past the AAC champion will be at worst 11-2 and will do fine in comparison to a MWC or SBC champion
It does seem important for that to happen, and it seems more likely that it will happen with a 14-team than an 11-team conference. It seems necessary for a conference to have at least one team that people get excited about.
A team like UTSA, for example. There's no telling what will happen with them, but it seems likely that their recruiting will take off, and that
UTSA could build a mini-dynasty by 2023, which could contend with SMU (and North Texas and Navy, eventually)
for domination of the AAC West (if there is an AAC West Division). The AAC West is going to start out as the tougher of the two divisions, and it's also likely to have the most parity. A division with high parity can be a curse, especially when the high-parity division is by far the strongest division. AAC fans might have to hope ardently that UTSA (or SMU) runs the table in 2023 and makes its way into the Top 25, despite the competitiveness of the AAC West.
The AAC East seems to be wide open at this point. The top contenders in 2023 could be UAB and Memphis, but Memphis has been surprisingly soft lately, so it's possible that UAB could go 5-1 or 6-0 in the AAC East in 2023.
Another team that could make some noise in the AAC in 2023 or 2024 (wait for it . . . . . Temple). That seems preposterous, given what happened to that program, but they've hired a new Head Coach who has impressed a lot of people with his energy and drive and the kind of work he has done putting a new coaching staff together.
They've also had some good recruiting successes, and all these positive changes have started to create a definite sense of momentum. There's going to be an entirely new and different Temple team on the field in 2022. They may not win a lot of games, but with the coaches they've hired and the recruiting buzz, they could be a team to contend with in 2023 or 2024.
I'll go out on a limb and predict that UAB, Memphis, and Temple will be playing in bowl games out of the AAC East in 2024, and possibly in 2023, as well. It's still very early, but I'm so impressed with Temple's new HC that I wouldn't be surprised to see the Owls emerge as one of the top two AAC East programs by 2024 or 2025.
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Man that wasn’t even a good comeback 
