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Current Standings

1. Denver 32
2. NoDak 29
3. WMU 26
4. Duluth 25
5. SCSU 19
6. Omaha 17
7. CC 14
8. Miami 6

The picture cleared a little this week, and will even more each week as we progress.

What We Learned: Miami has been eliminated from the conference title hunt.

What can happen This Week: CC could be eliminated from the conference title hunt.


New #'s to track. I'll now start tracking two "magic numbers" 1...Magic # to win the regular season title, and 2....the Magic # to lock up a home series in the conference tourney.
Just a reminder a "magic number" is a combination of points you need to achieve and your opponents need to waste/lose. A team could gain up to 12 of their magic number points in a given week in a perfect scenario...or as little as 0. The magic number for some teams is larger than the points they can earn on their own....those teams don't "control their own destiny" anymore....and need help.

Rank....Team.......Magic Number to Host....Magic Number to win league

8. Miami.........50......NA

Miami would need to win out and get a lot of help to host...they are eliminated from the league title.

7. CC..........42...........51

CC....If CC won out they would likely get to host...but they are in the area of maybe 2 losses making it virtually impossible. They could be eliminated from the league title if they get swept this week, and Denver sweeps.

6. Omaha......38..........48

Omaha....is basically just 1 win ahead of CC's situation. 2-3 losses will likely make them travel for the tourney. With 10 games left it'll be tough for them to go say 8-2, just to host. They can not be eliminated from the league title this week....but depending on this week likely can be next week.

5. SCSU.........36.........46

SCSU has 12 games left vs. 10 for most of the league (and 8 for Miami) If they go 6-6 that might be enough to host. While mathmatically a lot of wiggle room to win the league title, they are in reality pretty much up against it at this spot, they in reality likely need to win out to win the league.

4. Duluth......30......40

Duluth is in a very similar spot to SCSU but play two less games. A 5-5 finish would likely give them a chance to host, but 6-4 finish would be a lot saffer. Their schedule is challenging however, so finishing better than that is tough to see. Like SCSU they probably need to win out (nor nearly win out) to win the league.

3. WMU.......29......39

Western has a tough stretch of games...but also has the advantage of playing CC and Miami twice still....only team that gets to do that. How they fair in those four games will likely determine a lot. WMU is one point ahead of Duluth basically to host WMU needs to match Duluth's finish. If Duluth goes 5-5 we need to go 5-5. With 4 games against the bottom two teams if we fair well in those game that task gets easy. In order to win the league we have 4 series we will need to win, and likely need to sweep, because of who we play....only the SCSU series could we afford a loss. With up to 30 available points remaining the reality is we probably need to find a way to get 27. That would require Denver to go 7-3 to finish....in this scenario we would need to sweep everyone but go 1-1 at St. Cloud. Anything worse would require Denver and NoDak to do worse than 7-3.

2. NoDak.....26.......36

NoDak is everything I said about WMU but with 1 extra game in their pocket. The WMU series at NoDak will go a long way in determining 2nd place, if both teams keep pace with eachother.

1. Denver.....23........33

Denver obviously controls it's destiny for everything. Probably only needs to go 3-7 to lock up a home series, and might lock up # 1 with a 7-3 finish....as I said above. With how even the league is they might get enough help and only need to go 6-4 to win the league.

All in all WMU's chances at a 1 seed is getting slimmer each week. A sweep this week is virtually mandatory to keeping those hopes alive. WMU's chance at a 2 seed allows 2-3 losses....as long as we sweep NoDak......so.....yeah. WMU's chance at a 3 seed probably requires a 7-3 or 6-4 type of finish. WMU's chance at a 4 seed likely requires a 6-4 or 5-5 type of finish. These numbers are much easier to get if we go 4-0 vs. CC and Miami....but wasting points against them all reduce our chances for each spot significantly.

Quick Pairwise talk, my gut tells me 4-0 vs. Miami/CC, plus 1 more regular season game, and 1 conference tourney win.....will put us very close to the cut line.....anything above that I think we are locks...and then are playing for seeds. So my get in the tourney number is 6 wins.....a 3 seed is probably 7-8 wins, 2 seed is 8-9 wins...one seed is probably 9-10 wins. (So we have anywhere between 12 and 15 games left)

(Also remember no 3rd place game in the NCHC tourney this year)

As always, great stuff Doo!

Broncos need to continue to win the games they should (CC, Miami) and hopefully pull off some sweeps and at no worst split their remaining gauntlet games vs SCSU, Nodak, Denver.

(01-31-2022 12:03 PM)Broncodan Wrote:  As always, great stuff Doo!

Broncos need to continue to win the games they should (CC, Miami) and hopefully pull off some sweeps and at no worst split their remaining gauntlet games vs SCSU, Nodak, Denver.

A scenario where we Sweep CC and Miami....split the SCSU, NoDak, and Denver series and win 2 of 3 in the playoff series, and get knocked out in the conference semi's Would put us ssuuppeerr close to that 1 seed 2 seed line IMO.

Nice breakdown, Doo. Thanks for that analysis.

(01-31-2022 12:48 PM)Doo Wrote:  

(01-31-2022 12:03 PM)Broncodan Wrote:  As always, great stuff Doo!

Broncos need to continue to win the games they should (CC, Miami) and hopefully pull off some sweeps and at no worst split their remaining gauntlet games vs SCSU, Nodak, Denver.

A scenario where we Sweep CC and Miami....split the SCSU, NoDak, and Denver series and win 2 of 3 in the playoff series, and get knocked out in the conference semi's Would put us ssuuppeerr close to that 1 seed 2 seed line IMO.

I’d love to see us win a game in Minni and play for the NCHC title. It’s safe to say that we want that 1-3 seed not 4 because at 4 you’re likely playing a team like Nodak or even possibly Duluth in the first round. 1-3 very likely gets Omaha, CC and Miami. Yeah wins over higher pwr teams helps but getting to Minni is much easier finishing 1-3.