Commercial Real Estate Bloodbath Coming





It will impact all of us, not just business and banking.

I’ve been saying this sense the zerO debacle shuttered all those businesses. Empty stores fronts all over then.

Then this guy decides to start a business delivering books to people for a small fee. I recall the Mrs doing it once early on and I thought My goodness, how ridiculous and lazy is that?!? Just go to Books A Million or B and N. That’ll never work as a business.

Yea, that’d be Amazon…

What I find interesting and puzzling at the same time is developers continue to build build build. I get that “that’s what they do”, but they then gotta rent or lease that space too, where are all y those folks gonna come from?

I don’t get it, I’m with this guy here. And it won’t be good for much of anyone. Could be the commercial RE version of the 2008 collapse.

And things aren’t exactly great now.

??? can't see any pic or link in OP. Just several completely blank lines/big empty space between the two lines of text (or is that somehow the point?)

Must be on your end. Looks fine to me.

(01-22-2022 02:45 PM)JMUDunk Wrote:  I’ve been saying this sense the zerO debacle shuttered all those businesses. Empty stores fronts all over then.

Then this guy decides to start a business delivering books to people for a small fee. I recall the Mrs doing it once early on and I thought My goodness, how ridiculous and lazy is that?!? Just go to Books A Million or B and N. That’ll never work as a business.

Yea, that’d be Amazon…

What I find interesting and puzzling at the same time is developers continue to build build build. I get that “that’s what they do”, but they then gotta rent or lease that space too, where are all y those folks gonna come from?

I don’t get it, I’m with this guy here. And it won’t be good for much of anyone. Could be the commercial RE version of the 2008 collapse.

And things aren’t exactly great now.

Builders get paid to build. Selling what they build just allows them to build more. The lender will have to worry about selling or leasing at a later date. And don't worry about the builder because lenders get paid to lend.

(01-22-2022 02:55 PM)MileHighBronco Wrote:  Must be on your end. Looks fine to me.

weird; I see it now after coming back (after watching the jumping dog vid, though, so maybe that did it.)

I get that periodically too, usually on my pc. It’s something “loading”, whether it’s Windows, Firefox or Tapatalk I don’t know.

It’s typically one of Crimsons posts with the 3 vids embedded etc.

Well as long as the government keeps telling the sheep-like population that they'll die if they step outside...

I have been having that issue as well, not just on this site. I think it is firefox. I used Microsoft Edge a few nights ago to watch a video and had no problems with it. But yeah a lot of twitter embeds arent pulling up properly and videos not loading.

I thought it was just my aging computer being slow.

OS, processor, browser, who knows? Old enough in fact it just completely pooped out just last week. Turns on, won’t boot.

I’ve had that issue on and off for some time now, nothing new to me. They eventually pop up, others load immediately like they should.

(01-22-2022 03:57 PM)JMUDunk Wrote:  I thought it was just my aging computer being slow.

OS, processor, browser, who knows? Old enough in fact it just completely pooped out just last week. Turns on, won’t boot.

I’ve had that issue on and off for some time now, nothing new to me. They eventually pop up, others load immediately like they should.

Thanks, Dunk; just thought those n ess aye servers must be slow today...

(01-22-2022 03:17 PM)JMUDunk Wrote:  I get that periodically too, usually on my pc. It’s something “loading”, whether it’s Windows, Firefox or Tapatalk I don’t know.

It’s typically one of Crimsons posts with the 3 vids embedded etc.

Same here.

(01-22-2022 02:45 PM)JMUDunk Wrote:  I’ve been saying this sense the zerO debacle shuttered all those businesses. Empty stores fronts all over then.

Then this guy decides to start a business delivering books to people for a small fee. I recall the Mrs doing it once early on and I thought My goodness, how ridiculous and lazy is that?!? Just go to Books A Million or B and N. That’ll never work as a business.

Yea, that’d be Amazon…

What I find interesting and puzzling at the same time is developers continue to build build build. I get that “that’s what they do”, but they then gotta rent or lease that space too, where are all y those folks gonna come from?

I don’t get it, I’m with this guy here. And it won’t be good for much of anyone. Could be the commercial RE version of the 2008 collapse.

And things aren’t exactly great now.

2008 was really just a massive real estate recession. Same as the 86 Texas recession. We've got fundamental issues here with remote work, not just a bubble as in 2008.

The near term issue for real estate is interest rates. Prime went to 3.25 from the 08-09 crisis and sat there for over 5 years. Fixed rates for investment real estate were extremely low during that period. When rates are low you can obviously afford to finance more because the cash flow from the property will support more debt for the same monthly payment. That also means you can pay more for a cash flow stream and still get a good return.

The issue is that there were trillions in acquisitions and development financed from 2010 thru 2015. Those properties only cash flow with the debt level because they were financed with low fixed rates. That hasn’t been a problem so far because those 10-year balloon loans that have rolled from 2010-11 have rolled into an identical rate environment. However, with rates projected to increase 3% over the next 18 months, you are likely not king at a bunch of loans coming due that are not refinacable.

(01-22-2022 04:44 PM)banker Wrote:  The near term issue for real estate is interest rates. Prime went to 3.25 from the 08-09 crisis and sat there for over 5 years. Fixed rates for investment real estate were extremely low during that period. When rates are low you can obviously afford to finance more because the cash flow from the property will support more debt for the same monthly payment. That also means you can pay more for a cash flow stream and still get a good return.

The issue is that there were trillions in acquisitions and development financed from 2010 thru 2015. Those properties only cash flow with the debt level because they were financed with low fixed rates. That hasn’t been a problem so far because those 10-year balloon loans that have rolled from 2010-11 have rolled into an identical rate environment. However, with rates projected to increase 3% over the next 18 months, you are likely not king at a bunch of loans coming due that are not refinacable.

This. You know when it starts when the mass builders start giving bonuses etc. for completed inventory. But it won't stop them from starting new homes and it won't stop the lenders from giving them money to do it. Seen it twice before in my line of work. Usually happens every ten years. It's been long overdue.

(01-22-2022 02:54 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  ??? can't see any pic or link in OP. Just several completely blank lines/big empty space between the two lines of text (or is that somehow the point?)

Let it sit for a minute, it'll load.

(01-22-2022 03:17 PM)JMUDunk Wrote:  I get that periodically too, usually on my pc. It’s something “loading”, whether it’s Windows, Firefox or Tapatalk I don’t know.

It’s typically one of Crimsons posts with the 3 vids embedded etc.

Twitter video links take forever to load for me. It's irritating, I'll scroll past them to the next post and when it loads it moves the position of the post I'm trying to read, and it does it every time one of the twitter vids finally loads.

(01-22-2022 03:46 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  I have been having that issue as well, not just on this site. I think it is firefox. I used Microsoft Edge a few nights ago to watch a video and had no problems with it. But yeah a lot of twitter embeds arent pulling up properly and videos not loading.

Same here, I started noticing it when I switched back to Firefox from Chrome.

(01-22-2022 08:08 PM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote:  

(01-22-2022 03:46 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  I have been having that issue as well, not just on this site. I think it is firefox. I used Microsoft Edge a few nights ago to watch a video and had no problems with it. But yeah a lot of twitter embeds arent pulling up properly and videos not loading.

Same here, I started noticing it when I switched back to Firefox from Chrome.

my phone is faster than muh cpu at times .... and it's all sites (I visit very few sites)

my mbps is off the chain fast ... it ain't that

w/o question, it's fk'n annoying when it happens ...

I'm to the point of rebooting bang-bang twice once the drag begins .... I'm a step away from wiping my drive for the third time in two years ...

In my case, I think it's windows/mcafee/hp wanting to continually upgrade placing a drag on my system...

regardless, I'm too old to give a fk anymore .... I'll simply wipe it again and again and again until it craps out and I buy another pos pooter....